What single individual stock would you buy?

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TheTimeLord
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What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by TheTimeLord »

First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
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illumination
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by illumination »

Apple.

Assuming this is a speculative play where you are trying to "beat" the market.

It's probably has the most loyal customer base of any company on Earth. People are genuinely excited and love their products. They are a money making machine and are getting more and more revenue on subscription type services. Even getting into banking (I love Apple Pay)

They have over $200 billion in cash on hand (more than the entire market cap of Exxon Mobil)

I just see my kids and their peers, and it's like 100% Apple products, maybe I'm in a bubble, but I see this and know most all of these kids are going to grow up and buy their own Apple products and be lifelong customers.

The smart phone and how integral that is to people's lives is going to be a long term trend and Apple has all sorts of ways to make money from that and be at the center.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by GraduateStudent »

brk.a
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by nisiprius »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am...I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fund?
Yes, it's completely different from buying an index fund.

1) Berkshire Hathaway is allowed to hold all of its assets itself, rather than having them held by an independent custodian.

2) If Berkshire Hathaway were a mutual fund, the fact that it holds more than 10% of the outstanding stock of many of its companies means that it would be required to warn investors that it does not meet the standards for a "diversified" fund.

3) Berkshire Hathaway is not required to make redemptions at all. You can't present a share of BRK.B to Berkshire and expect them to pay you. the only way you can get your money out of a share of BRK.B is to sell it to a willing buyer--and, unlike an ETF, there are no "authorized participants" as whose self-interest motivates them to be a market maker and ensure that the stock always trades at close to its net asset value.

4) Finally, Berkshire Hathaway does not have a goal of tracking any index--cap-weighted, fundamental, factor-based, or anything.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Anon9001 »

Central Depositary Services Limited. The company has a strong moat and has a near zero percent chance of bankruptcy. I view it as a play on the financialization of Indian savings from phsyical Gold and Real Estate to equities and mutual funds. It also has growth potential from the recent Government decision to require unlisted companies to dematarilze their shares. I have 10% in it.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by ruralavalon »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
I don't buy individual stocks anymore.

If I did, then I would consider Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B). It's not an index funds, but is pretty diversified. There is a lot of risk from management change, considering the ages of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by TheTimeLord »

Mine would be Microsoft.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by KlangFool »

SLV -> Silver ETF. It looks very cheap now. It might be worthwhile or a trade/gamble.

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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by cheese_breath »

I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. Greater risk but potentially greater reward.
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backofbeyond
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by backofbeyond »

I got the answer! Pick me. Pick me! Ceasers Entertainment. Why? Because I've been riding this bear market since the begining and so far that's my star.

I've bought approx. 205 "new" stocks since the downturn. New means, ones that I did not currently own. Of the 205, 23 are in negative territory. According to my records, the S&P 500 is currently 17.8% off it's high. Only 4 of my picks are worse off than 17.8%. And 17 of the 23 are only down by single digits. Guess what my Biggest loser is? Luck Coffee -72% (Fraud charges), same as the OP. Biggest Winner is Ceasers Entertainment 136%

# of Winner up by percentages

+20% 35
+30% 21
+40% 13
+50% 6
+60 6
+70% 2
+80% 1
+90% 3
+120% 1
+130 1

I also added several ETFs and more stocks to my "old" positions, but haven't done the deep dive analysis on where I'm at with them, my guess is most are over 20% higher. Eyeballing it, I"m not nearly as successful picking ETFs during this time frame, but then again, I doubt many ETFs are doing better than the S&P500 during the same timeframe. Also for the record, these buys are made with what I call play money (or is it mad?) and I limit the total amounts to 10% of my total portfolio. More of a hobbie than anything. 90% of my portfolio is in total market Index funds and/or TSP accounts.

So for those who say buying individual stocks is a losers game, curious to see what they have to say about the above data? 98% of my picks are beating the S&P500 since the slide. I could cash them out right now and call it a day. But my strategy is once they reach 100% gain, I'll sell 50% and let the rest ride.

While I agree that in normal times, you can't beat Mr. Market...but look outside, these are NOT normal times.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by BroIceCream »

Marriott, MAR
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Normchad »

I do own one individual stock. I bought TSLA on Dec 17 2019 for $380 per share.

It quickly rose up to $960 per share, and almost as quickly went back down to $550 I think.

If it gets to $2000 per share, I will sell it all and use the proceeds to buy a new Tesla Model Y for the wife.

I don’t know nothing. This may be the smartest thing I ever do, or the dumbest. But either way, that outcome won’t be based on my brains.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
Do we have to be able to regurgitate (from memory) a company's financial statements? :D

MGM - MGM Resorts
MSFT - Microsoft
AAPL - Apple
MCD - McDonalds
BA - Boeing - if/when it gets near $100

I've bought several of these - If I were to choose only one? MGM. I predict MGM will be in the $20s within a year (just put new batteries in my crystal ball). YMMV.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by dukeblue219 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:08 pm Mine would be Microsoft.
That is a pretty solid rec since they do so much in so many areas that people don't think of. They're not a consumer product company like Apple, an advertising firm like Google/Facebook, nor are they absurdly valued like Netflix, Uber, Amazon, etc. They're aren't as capital intensive as Intel or Tesla.

It's too bad it's run up so much lately, though.

Not a bad place to be if you like individual stocks. Just don't expect crazy explosive growth either, of course.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:10 pm SLV -> Silver ETF. It looks very cheap now. It might be worthwhile or a trade/gamble.

KlangFool
I may have to look at this. Thank you.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by TheTimeLord »

dukeblue219 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:35 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:08 pm Mine would be Microsoft.
That is a pretty solid rec since they do so much in so many areas that people don't think of. They're not a consumer product company like Apple, an advertising firm like Google/Facebook, nor are they absurdly valued like Netflix, Uber, Amazon, etc. They're aren't as capital intensive as Intel or Tesla.

It's too bad it's run up so much lately, though.

Not a bad place to be if you like individual stocks. Just don't expect crazy explosive growth either, of course.
Yeah, its not like its a secret, but I see it as a great work from home and cloud computing play. And sooner or later they will make Teams into a top flight product. Also, being such a large part of the U.S. indexes there is a lot of natural support.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by yangtui »

I am a HUGE fan of BioAnal Sys (BASI).
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Monsterflockster »

Well there was no March Madness this year so the wife and I did a "stock" pool instead. We each picked one stock up to $100 value and whoever "lost the least" was the victor. Well she bought 9 shares of Khols when it was $11... because she "likes their store." Admittedly there was a bit of smack-talked for choosing a closed business but what do I know... she is killing it and up 90%.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Theoretical »

1 stock: None. Not even Berkshire. Why, because owning stock in a single company has far too much idiosyncratic risk, insider knowledge, and simple luck, and the usual fraud risks involved. Now if I was assembling some microcap value mini-fund based on quant measures, then I'd be willing to take that risk because I'd be buying like 50-100 stocks and no one issue would drastically affect on the downside even if it was a complete scam.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Foggy »

MSFT, AMZN
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by marbles »

The answer is very obvious.
1- Do your research
2- Buy at a fair price
3- Hold
4- Wait for it to go up
5- Sell
6- If it don't go up, don't buy it.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Monsterflockster wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:56 pm Well there was no March Madness this year so the wife and I did a "stock" pool instead. We each picked one stock up to $100 value and whoever "lost the least" was the victor. Well she bought 9 shares of Khols when it was $11... because she "likes their store." Admittedly there was a bit of smack-talked for choosing a closed business but what do I know... she is killing it and up 90%.
Great idea! I've bought some Apple over the years (still own it) because my wife (and, admittedly me) really likes their products. Bought most of what we have before the 7 for 1 split back in 2014.

I remember - waaay back - when I was first looking into investing. I asked an older friend, at the time, how I might go about getting started. His advice? "Take a look at companies that you like their products". This fellow, at the time (late 80s), owned a LOT of Walmart.

Of course, I've since 'discovered' Bogleheads - and, in the last few years, have mostly shifted to low cost index funds. :beer
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by whereskyle »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
The value of gold depends on its current price versus its future price. Disney under $100? Bought it. Google under $1025? Bought it. Alibaba under $180? Bought it. I was hunting for Amazon but I missed the buy point of $1700.

I probably would have gone hunting for Apple or
MSFT too if I didn't own so much VGT already.

My point: hunting for the perfect stock without regard for price seems wrong to me. My approach (so far): buy index funds always and also buy individual stocks of viable and valuable companies when people are panicking in addition to regular index fund purchases. I'll see if my buy-at-best-price rule results in individual returns that come close to matching the index. I expect that these buys will not match the index and I won't do this again.

But, if we're just asking what company I fear the most that will crush all competition in its path in every field? Obviously Amazon.
Last edited by whereskyle on Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:52 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Keenobserver »

cheese_breath wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:11 pm I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. Greater risk but potentially greater reward.
So if I purchased Microsoft, Apple or Amazon its equvilant to buying lottery ticket? Wow this is truly the twilight zone
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by cheese_breath »

Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:38 pm
cheese_breath wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:11 pm I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. Greater risk but potentially greater reward.
So if I purchased Microsoft, Apple or Amazon its equvilant to buying lottery ticket? Wow this is truly the twilight zone
No, the lottery ticket is less expensive so I have less to lose.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by anon_investor »

I just buy VGT, it's still an index fund right? :twisted:
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by JDofAZ »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:29 pm I remember - waaay back - when I was first looking into investing. I asked an older friend, at the time, how I might go about getting started. His advice? "Take a look at companies that you like their products". This fellow, at the time (late 80s), owned a LOT of Walmart.
For myself, and without picking on any particular company, if I think something (company or product) is stupid or overpriced the more likely it will sell like crazy and be wildly successful.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by ruralavalon »

cheese_breath wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:25 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:38 pm
cheese_breath wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:11 pm I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. Greater risk but potentially greater reward.
So if I purchased Microsoft, Apple or Amazon its equvilant to buying lottery ticket? Wow this is truly the twilight zone
No, the lottery ticket is less expensive so I have less to lose.
+ 1.

And investing in a tech company when a start up is very much like investing in a lottery ticket. (IPO = "It's Probably Overpriced" :) )
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by XPFL »

Costco
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fund. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
TheTimeLord:

If you think buying Luckin Coffee was "fun," we have a different idea of what "fun" is so you probably won't like my answer.

I learned the hard way that buying individual stocks is a loser's game. David Swensen, Chief Investment Office of Yale University explains:
"There's no way that spending a few hours a week looking at individual securities is going to equip an investor to compete with the incredibly talented, highly qualified, extremely educated individuals who spend their entire professional careers trying to pick stocks."
Best wishes
Taylor
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

whereskyle wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:34 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
The value of gold depends on its current price versus its future price. Disney under $100? Bought it. Google under $1025? Bought it. Alibaba under $180? Bought it. I was hunting for Amazon but I missed the buy point of $1700.

I probably would have gone hunting for Apple or
MSFT too if I didn't own so much VGT already.

My point: hunting for the perfect stock without regard for price seems wrong to me. My approach (so far): buy index funds always and also buy individual stocks of viable and valuable companies when people are panicking in addition to regular index fund purchases. I'll see if my buy-at-best-price rule results in individual returns that come close to matching the index. I expect that these buys will not match the index and I won't do this again.

But, if we're just asking what company I fear the most that will crush all competition in its path in every field? Obviously Amazon.

You could be right. But, I wouldn't think it'd be a slam dunk. Walmart has very deep pockets too and, I think, their e-commerce increased by 35% in Q4 of last year. Wally-world is doing everything they can to 'level the playing field'. Certainly, Amazon has the name recognition and a HUGE head start in e-commerce, though.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

XPFL wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:53 pmCostco
+1 Costco has an EXTREMELY loyal customer base (and, obviously, a great business model).
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by stimulacra »

Apple or Microsoft.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by mokaThought »

I did the "open a Robinhood account and get a free stock thing" earlier. They gave me SIRI (Sirius XM). I sold it and bought CPST (Capstone Turbine). It's down 87.4% over the past year. Sticking to index funds. :beer
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by sharukh »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:59 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am...I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fund?
Yes, it's completely different from buying an index fund.

1) Berkshire Hathaway is allowed to hold all of its assets itself, rather than having them held by an independent custodian.

2) If Berkshire Hathaway were a mutual fund, the fact that it holds more than 10% of the outstanding stock of many of its companies means that it would be required to warn investors that it does not meet the standards for a "diversified" fund.

3) Berkshire Hathaway is not required to make redemptions at all. You can't present a share of BRK.B to Berkshire and expect them to pay you. the only way you can get your money out of a share of BRK.B is to sell it to a willing buyer--and, unlike an ETF, there are no "authorized participants" as whose self-interest motivates them to be a market maker and ensure that the stock always trades at close to its net asset value.

4) Finally, Berkshire Hathaway does not have a goal of tracking any index--cap-weighted, fundamental, factor-based, or anything.
Strength of the chain is Strength of the weakest link.

Yes Berkshire holds lots of other stock and as a whole May track the index.

But owing Berkshire has lot of single counter party risk.

They could be the next Enron and we might not know. Even though they have diverse stock holdings, you are not protected from accounting frauds if any were to happen.

Holding a mutual fund protects you from fraud by broker and fund managers . Due to 1984 investment act and spic protection.

That is the difference of holding diversified set of stocks through a fund vs Berkshire

HTH
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Namashkar »

LRCX - Lam Research. I bought 100 shares during the recent downturn and sold it three days later with a net profit of about 2K. This is the first time in a long period of time I bought an individual stock and became a “day trader”. It was just for fun.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by whereskyle »

anon_investor wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:41 pm I just buy VGT, it's still an index fund right? :twisted:
I've worried that the heavy weighting made it a weird etf. But now I think it offers a measure of stability. And I don't have to shop for msft or apple.
Last edited by whereskyle on Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by weirdsong1 »

I've seen Wall-E...it's definitely Buy N' Large, er, I mean Costco!
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by anon_investor »

whereskyle wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:45 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:41 pm I just buy VGT, it's still an index fund right? :twisted:
I've worried that the heavy weighting made it a weird etf. But now I think it offers a measure of stability. And I don't have to shop for msft or apple.
It has definitely been my best performing equity holding through this crash...

And I definitely bought some more on the cheap.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

anon_investor wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:50 pm
whereskyle wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:45 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:41 pm I just buy VGT, it's still an index fund right? :twisted:
I've worried that the heavy weighting made it a weird etf. But now I think it offers a measure of stability. And I don't have to shop for msft or apple.
It has definitely been my best performing equity holding through this crash...

And I definitely bought some more on the cheap.

I have some VGT too. Can't seem to pull away from a technology tilt - and, that may be good thing. 8-)
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by BostonBoy »

RCL Royal Caribbean.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by HomerJ »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am First, I am not going to tell you buying individual stocks is easy or even a good idea. Heck for fun a bought a some shares of Luckin Coffee a few weeks ago and then it dropped 80+% because of corporate fraud. Still some people like to dabble in them so my question is if you were going to buy individual stocks but could only buy one stock, what would it be? I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fun. So which stock do you think is the golden child?
On Alcoholics Anonymous website..

"okay, I know you guys don't want to drink, but if you had to drink, which liquor would you pick?"
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HomerJ
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by HomerJ »

BostonBoy wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:09 pm RCL Royal Caribbean.
It will either make you a ton or go broke.

Might as well bet a bunch of money on 1-12 in roulette in Vegas
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Nicolas
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Nicolas »

Apple, Inc. (AAPL), no question. Full disclosure: I did buy it, ten years ago and still holding. No special skill, I got lucky, Cramer told me to buy it. :D
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by honduranhurricane »

I have bot a few stocks over recent weeks, but if I had to pick only one,,hmm...GE.

At some point I will sell most of what I have recently acquired and get back to index investing. Still like that as a much less stressful way to invest, but as another poster mentioned, these are not normal times...to which I may add, times like these create dislocations that create opportunities. Plenty of arguing to be had against what I have just said, please don't,,,not for my sake anyway.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Jess Saying »

I currently wouldn't buy any individual stock, though I do own one. I bought Peloton several months ago. It was 1 star "ominous" on Motley Fool CAPS community at the time. :D
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by AlphaLess »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:59 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:47 am...I expect a lot of people to default to Berkshire, but come on is that really that much different than buying an index fund?
Yes, it's completely different from buying an index fund.

1) Berkshire Hathaway is allowed to hold all of its assets itself, rather than having them held by an independent custodian.

2) If Berkshire Hathaway were a mutual fund, the fact that it holds more than 10% of the outstanding stock of many of its companies means that it would be required to warn investors that it does not meet the standards for a "diversified" fund.

3) Berkshire Hathaway is not required to make redemptions at all. You can't present a share of BRK.B to Berkshire and expect them to pay you. the only way you can get your money out of a share of BRK.B is to sell it to a willing buyer--and, unlike an ETF, there are no "authorized participants" as whose self-interest motivates them to be a market maker and ensure that the stock always trades at close to its net asset value.

4) Finally, Berkshire Hathaway does not have a goal of tracking any index--cap-weighted, fundamental, factor-based, or anything.
3 is a made-up reason.

Suppose you hold the SP500 ETF (SPY). What are you going to do? Provide the ETF, and redeem for 500 stocks? Then what? What are you going to do with the 500 stocks? That is what you suggest.

And what do you think the value of the SPY ETF is based on? The underlying 500 stocks' prices? If so, then what are those values based on? Can you take APPL stock and go to Tim Cook, and get some intrinsic value out of him? Of course not.

IMO, ability to sell in the secondary market in a short period of time (short, but reasonable) is FAR more important than ability to use a redeem process, which is not really helpful to an average investor.

The real value of SPY is not that you are able to redeem it for 500 stocks. The real value of SPY is that you can buy and sell huge amounts of it in short period of time. In fact, if you are looking for good liquidity, you should consider E-Minis. Trading stock for liquidity purpose is not as good as trading futures.
Last edited by AlphaLess on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by jpb01 »

HRL stock
Johnnyone
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Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

Post by Johnnyone »

XOM or BA and then I would sell as soon as the stocks double.
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