100% cash in this unprecidented time?

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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by mptfan »

This is not unprecedented. Review this summary of pandemics in the last 100 years provided by the CDC...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... emics.html
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by reln »

Van wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:26 pm
reln wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:51 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Sounds like a good time to buy a large cash refund SPIA and get off this site and every other financial site.
No fun in doing that. Maybe some of us kind of enjoy, in a sort of perverted way, agonizing over our investments. :D
Lol fair enough 😂
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by LadyGeek »

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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by hudson »

utvolfan wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:49 pm
hudson wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am stilllearning,

I think that the uninsured money market (MM) funds at Vanguard are probably OK.
I would rather make more interest at a high yield FDIC savings account....more money and a notch safer than Vanguard's MM.
Now if Vanguard's MM was paying more, that would be tempting.
I am still learning also so thanks for your patience in advance. I also often wonder about my uninsured MM accounts at Vanguard, and my Stable Value fund with my 401k. I do have some IRA money at the local credit union earning almost nothing, but it is insured and I guess that is the trade-off.

But when looking at my IRA or Roth at VG, are there any insured options? or is the MM account the closest thing to "safe"? Do the high yield FDIC savings accounts you are referring to allow deposits under IRA rules? With my 457 and 401k accounts the Stable Value is the safest option, though it isn't insured. Or to get insured do you have to move the IRA from VG to an account like I have at the credit union--I could earn a slight bit more if I committed the funds to a one year, 18 months, 2 year etc. time period, but right now they are just in an accumulator account that I can access or even rollover to VG if desired.
MM accounts at Vanguard are likely safe. For minor amounts, no problem. For larger amounts, I like CDs or high yield savings accounts....both are FDIC/NCUA insured....which means backed up by the US government. https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html CDs and high yield savings are safer...AND pay more.

In your IRA or Roth at Vanguard: I personally am OK with Vanguard Risk Potential 1 or 2 funds/ETFs....with no investment grade corporates. The funds with guaranteed holdings would be treasuries, TIPS, and GNMAs. You can buy FDIC brokered CDs in your IRA/Roth. You can also buy CDs at banks or credit unions; you'd have to do an IRA transfer.

Have you read Larry Swedroe's Bond Book or two books by William Bernstein....Ages of the Investor and Four Pillars?

https://www.amazon.com/Only-Guide-Winni ... 0312353634
https://www.amazon.com/Ages-Investor-Cr ... oks&sr=1-2
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0041 ... tkin_p1_i0

Did I answer your questions?

I hold no stocks; for fixed income, I'm 10% munis and 90% CDs
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by ragabnh »

What is the current yield on Vanguard Money Market Fund held in brokerage account? I am trying to work out monthly income I need since I am retired at this time.

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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

ragabnh wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:27 pm What is the current yield on Vanguard Money Market Fund held in brokerage account? I am trying to work out monthly income I need since I am retired at this time.

The SEC yield on the brokerage sweep fund, the Federal Money Market, is 0.11%. I hope your need for monthly income is not too great, given this low, low rate.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by ragabnh »

That does not work at all, currently I have money parked in online high yield saving account at capital one 360 generating 1%.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by yules »

GaryA505 wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:31 pm
mptfan wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:25 am This is not unprecedented. Google "1918 Flu Pandemic."

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... istory.htm

Also google "2009 H1N1 Pandemic."

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Disease Burden of the H1N1pdm09 Flu Virus, 2009-2018
Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the (H1N1)pdm09 flu virus has circulated seasonally in the U.S. causing significant illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html
The 1957-58 flu pandemic actually killed more than the 2009 flu. I survived the 1957-58 flu and remember it well.
Sure, but did you survive the 2009 flu?

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