100% cash in this unprecidented time?

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Van
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100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
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whodidntante
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by whodidntante »

[deleted] Didn't notice OP's age.
Last edited by whodidntante on Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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watchnerd
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by watchnerd »

What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
am
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by am »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
If I was in your shoes with 20 yrs in investments and assume no desire to leave a legacy, I would be like 20% stocks and rest short term treasuries, I bonds, cds and high yield savings. This pandemic will pass just like the ones before.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by dru808 »

20 years of expenses if all cash? Go for it, or how about keeping the stock and moving the bonds to cash? 20/80. Stock/cash
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

It's impossible to explain but for some reason I still want to be in the investing "game", although I don't need to be. Maybe I would sleep better at night if I was 100% cash, but maybe not. If there was a surge in the market, I would regret being a coward and getting out. On the other hand, if the market truly crashes, I'll be upset that I watched a bunch of money disappear, and I'll be thinking of everything I could have done for my extended family with that money. Perhaps, all of you live with the same damning torment!
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by am »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:14 pm It's impossible to explain but for some reason I still want to be in the investing "game", although I don't need to be. Maybe I would sleep better at night if I was 100% cash, but maybe not. If there was a surge in the market, I would regret being a coward and getting out. On the other hand, if the market truly crashes, I'll be upset that I watched a bunch of money disappear, and I'll be thinking of everything I could have done for my extended family with that money. Perhaps, all of you live with the same damning torment!
I’d worry about inflation eating up your money, especially after current stimulus and likely future stimulus. I also think you should focus more on preserving what you have at your age then hoping to grow the money.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Trader Joe »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
No, I would never, ever go to 100% cash.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by dru808 »

am wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
If I was in your shoes with 20 yrs in investments and assume no desire to leave a legacy, I would be like 20% stocks and rest short term treasuries, I bonds, cds and high yield savings. This pandemic will pass just like the ones before.

agreed, I commented after you.
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watchnerd
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by watchnerd »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
Oh...at 20% stocks, I'd leave it.

Even at 50% loss, that's only 10% of your portfolio.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by brcarls »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm Have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
With the federal government throwing stimulus money from helicopters on an unprecedented scale, is there risk that "20 years" of cash turns out to be much, much less due to inflation?
AlexanderTheMediocre
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by AlexanderTheMediocre »

brcarls wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:23 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm Have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
With the federal government throwing stimulus money from helicopters on an unprecedented scale, is there risk that "20 years" of cash turns out to be much, much less due to inflation?
I think there's enough of a risk there that it's worth keeping some percentage of the portfolio in stocks. Frankly, his existing 70% bonds, 20% stocks, 10% cash seems like a perfectly fine AA for a 75+ year old.

If someone was interested in leaving a legacy, I think there's an argument for more stocks. If not, then the existing AA is fine.
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

brcarls wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:23 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm Have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
With the federal government throwing stimulus money from helicopters on an unprecedented scale, is there risk that "20 years" of cash turns out to be much, much less due to inflation?
Definitely a concern. This is a factor in my main point, these are unprecidented times and the response is unprecidented. Inflation may go crazy. Who knows where we are headed?
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Kenkat
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Kenkat »

You have a conservative allocation. This country has survived many crises. The White House has been burned, we survived a brutal civil war with families fighting families, a war to end all wars, a war after that which saw much of our fleet in ruins at Pearl Harbor, came within one mistake of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, survived a devastating attack on US soil during 9/11, and near collapse of our financial system in 2008. And that’s just naming a few of them.

I think you will be best served by sticking with where you are at.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

am wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
If I was in your shoes with 20 yrs in investments and assume no desire to leave a legacy, I would be like 20% stocks and rest short term treasuries, I bonds, cds and high yield savings. This pandemic will pass just like the ones before.
+1 I don't know what your 70% bond makeup is - but, at your age, I'd make sure the bond portfolio is solid - like US federally insured solid (or very close to it). I'd stay away from 'investment grade' corporate bonds. I'd also agree with staying with 20% stocks - in a year or two, I think you'll be glad you did.

Best of luck to you.
J295
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by J295 »

Due to your age, temperament, your current financial situation, etc.…

Keep the 20% stock
Transition the remaining 80% to CD, MM, Government insured instruments, etc.

We are 60, retired, and not changing our allocations FYI.
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

dru808 wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:11 pm 20 years of expenses if all cash? Go for it, or how about keeping the stock and moving the bonds to cash? 20/80. Stock/cash
I have been giving a lot of consideration to exactly what you suggest, i.e. 20% stock and 80% cash. Enough stock to perhaps keep up, at least to some extent, with inflation, but a rather large security blanket of cash.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by finite_difference »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
I wouldn’t go with less than 25% stocks. People are always nervous about the wrong things.

If you want to be nervous about the right thing, be nervous about “doing anything.” Hint: you should just stand there.

Be nervous about catching COVID-19 — if it helps you to be careful, stay at home, and to remember to wash your hands and wear a mask outdoors to protect and signal to others. But try not to stress too much about it. Just do what you can.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Wiggums »

I like that you have 20% stock. Seems very reasonable for your situation. I wouldn’t sell the stock, if your intent is to get back in. Yes, the virus is very contagious, but generally, people are staying home. I would be more worried if we open up too soon and then need to stsy home a second time.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by AK62 »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?
If you are reading the doom and gloom stories and watching the talking heads on TV... STOP.

Stay the course and don't sell. There are many people who make the big decisions in this world who will not allow this world to crash and burn. Lots of uncertainties are ahead including more market fluctuations, but ride through it and know that the pieces will be put back together. I have to believe that this world will be a better (albeit different) world after the dust settles. Hang in there.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Sandtrap »

Would simply doubling your cash position size then into MM,CDs, etc be a good middle road for you for now?

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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Fat-Tailed Contagion »

You sound like a good candidate for Ben Graham's suggestion of 25/75 minimum stock portfolio.

Although as the market recovers you will have to resist your instincts to increase your stock allocation and buy more expensive stocks.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by milktoast »

You might want short duration treasuries or TIPS to control inflation risk. 20yrs is a long time to consistently lose ground to inflation.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by HomerJ »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:31 pm
brcarls wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:23 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm Have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
With the federal government throwing stimulus money from helicopters on an unprecedented scale, is there risk that "20 years" of cash turns out to be much, much less due to inflation?
Definitely a concern. This is a factor in my main point, these are unprecidented times and the response is unprecidented. Inflation may go crazy. Who knows where we are headed?
Which is an argument for keeping 20% in stocks. It's an argument for staying diversified.

You did a great job... You have a great Asset Allocation. You're prepared for most scenarios. 100% cash would be a terrible idea. It would be a bet on a single scenario. But like you said "who knows where we are headed?"

Are you worried about bonds? Maybe take from bonds and put more in cash...

20% in stocks is the right number in your situation. I see no reason to change it.
Last edited by HomerJ on Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by AlphaLess »

I only came to this thread to say that I have a huge pet peeve for misspelled titles.

Unprecedented.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by bestplans »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Are you comfortable in assuming that you (and desired beneficiary) will live another 20 years? If yes then I would stand pat.
iamblessed
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by iamblessed »

Stay put. You have the money to wait it out.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by alibaba123 »

This is the time to go 100% stocks. Not 100% cash.
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

alibaba123 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:22 am This is the time to go 100% stocks. Not 100% cash.
You could very well be correct. Time will tell, of course. I don't have the risk tolerance to go 100% stock. As my dear departed grandmother often said, "We are all not alike."
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by watchnerd »

alibaba123 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:22 am This is the time to go 100% stocks. Not 100% cash.
He's 75.

I don't think so.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by BW1985 »

alibaba123 wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:22 am This is the time to go 100% stocks. Not 100% cash.
He has no need to take that risk, nor is he willing to.
Chase the good life my whole life long, look back on my life and my life gone...where did I go wrong?
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by TN_Boy »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
70% bonds, 20% stock and 10% cash is the current AA.
Assuming the bonds are high-quality (Vanguard's total bond market fund, or a fund that is all treasuries) I think you have a great asset allocation for your situation.
capjak
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by capjak »

Stay put, turn off the news,

Most important:

Don't go to the stores (order groceries and disinfect), public places etc, social distance from everyone till we get through this.

Good Luck, sounds like you have a good enough AA.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by ruralavalon »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
At age 75 and "enough in investments to more than last for 20 years" you have the flexibility to do almost any allocation you wish.

My facts are similar (age 74, enough to cover about 28 years of living expenses net of Social Security), but plan to stay at a 50/50 asset allocation, with the fixed income allocation in an intermediate-term bond fund. I am optimistic that this unprecedented time is temporary, will be over in a few months and that we will have a vaccine sometime next year.
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:05 pm What's your AA?

At your age (75), I wouldn't chastise someone for moving to a more conservative allocation when there is limited time left to make up for a bad market.
Your risk with 20% stocks is minimal as it is.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by mptfan »

This is not unprecedented. Google "1918 Flu Pandemic."

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... istory.htm

Also google "2009 H1N1 Pandemic."

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Disease Burden of the H1N1pdm09 Flu Virus, 2009-2018
Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the (H1N1)pdm09 flu virus has circulated seasonally in the U.S. causing significant illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by mikeyzito22 »

Wiggums wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:27 pm I like that you have 20% stock. Seems very reasonable for your situation. I wouldn’t sell the stock, if your intent is to get back in. Yes, the virus is very contagious, but generally, people are staying home. I would be more worried if we open up too soon and then need to stsy home a second time.
Curious....it seems like that is exactly what's going to happen.
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by GaryA505 »

mptfan wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:25 am This is not unprecedented. Google "1918 Flu Pandemic."

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... istory.htm

Also google "2009 H1N1 Pandemic."

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Disease Burden of the H1N1pdm09 Flu Virus, 2009-2018
Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the (H1N1)pdm09 flu virus has circulated seasonally in the U.S. causing significant illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html
The 1957-58 flu pandemic actually killed more than the 2009 flu. I survived the 1957-58 flu and remember it well.
stocknoob4111
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by stocknoob4111 »

you seem to be concerned with losing money in equities however you do know that you are going to lose money guaranteed in cash.. why aren't you concerned about that? The S&P500 is returning close to 2% dividend yield at the moment...
stilllearning
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by stilllearning »

Does anyone here worry about keeping money market investments at Vanguard where they are not insured?

If not, I would like to understand why.

Thanks!
hudson
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by hudson »

stilllearning,

I think that the uninsured money market (MM) funds at Vanguard are probably OK.
I would rather make more interest at a high yield FDIC savings account....more money and a notch safer than Vanguard's MM.
Now if Vanguard's MM was paying more, that would be tempting.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

I recommend investing as if Covid is not an issue. It will go away and it is not the end of the world. Stay invested at all times and don't jump in and out of the market based on news and world events. Stay the coarse!
Stay invested my friends.
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LadyGeek
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, see: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
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utvolfan
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by utvolfan »

hudson wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am stilllearning,

I think that the uninsured money market (MM) funds at Vanguard are probably OK.
I would rather make more interest at a high yield FDIC savings account....more money and a notch safer than Vanguard's MM.
Now if Vanguard's MM was paying more, that would be tempting.
I am still learning also so thanks for your patience in advance. I also often wonder about my uninsured MM accounts at Vanguard, and my Stable Value fund with my 401k. I do have some IRA money at the local credit union earning almost nothing, but it is insured and I guess that is the trade-off.

But when looking at my IRA or Roth at VG, are there any insured options? or is the MM account the closest thing to "safe"? Do the high yield FDIC savings accounts you are referring to allow deposits under IRA rules? With my 457 and 401k accounts the Stable Value is the safest option, though it isn't insured. Or to get insured do you have to move the IRA from VG to an account like I have at the credit union--I could earn a slight bit more if I committed the funds to a one year, 18 months, 2 year etc. time period, but right now they are just in an accumulator account that I can access or even rollover to VG if desired.
reln
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by reln »

Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Sounds like a good time to buy a large cash refund SPIA and get off this site and every other financial site.
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Sandtrap
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Sandtrap »

It is always an unprecedented time.
Options:
Partial SPIA annuities.
And or....
25/75 allocation.
And or.....
High cash/CD/treasury percentage.

Be sure to pay down all interest bearing debt.

Estate planning?
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Van
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Van »

reln wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:51 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Sounds like a good time to buy a large cash refund SPIA and get off this site and every other financial site.
No fun in doing that. Maybe some of us kind of enjoy, in a sort of perverted way, agonizing over our investments. :D
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ruralavalon
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by ruralavalon »

Van wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:26 pm
reln wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:51 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Sounds like a good time to buy a large cash refund SPIA and get off this site and every other financial site.
No fun in doing that. Maybe some of us kind of enjoy, in a sort of perverted way, agonizing over our investments. :D
I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
No need to agonize in your situation :).
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
Nowizard
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by Nowizard »

At an age older than yours, I hear you. We had fortunately made several moves toward a more conservative portfolio before the pandemic hit but had one more to make that involved substantial assets. Since we had already decided to make the move, we did it in spite of many acting differently. Dogma can get in the way of desirable flexibility at times. It is not what you make but what you keep, as is often said. Based on your post, you will keep plenty after the move. It also can be of benefit if you make the changes in retirement accounts since you do not lock in losses.

Tim
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ruralavalon
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Re: 100% cash in this unprecidented time?

Post by ruralavalon »

Van wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:26 pm
reln wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:51 pm
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pm I'll admit it. I'm extremely nervous in this COVID-19 environment. How bad is this going to get? Nobody knows, of course. Will it pass in a few months, and then the stock market will gradually recover? Will it get really ugly, both socially with lawlessness and rioting and economically with more than a 50% drop in the S&P500 and decimation of various bond categories?

I have been considering just throwing in the towel and going to all cash (money markets and CDs) until this unprecidented time passes.

What do you think?

I should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
Sounds like a good time to buy a large cash refund SPIA and get off this site and every other financial site.
No fun in doing that. Maybe some of us kind of enjoy, in a sort of perverted way, agonizing over our investments. :D
Van wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:55 pmI should note that I am older (more than 75), retired and have enough in investments to more than last for 20 years.
No need for "agonizing over investments" in your situation :) . You could read a book, watch a movie, go for a walk instead.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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