When to jump back in?

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Post Reply
Topic Author
neonseparatist
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:22 pm
Location: Oakland, CA

When to jump back in?

Post by neonseparatist » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:43 pm

I am a young professional (29) who just got started building my 401k (with Vanguard; TSM, TBM, TISM, REIT) and Roth IRA accounts to plan for retirement a few years ago (2015) at the urging of my previous boss who regularly preached about the investing philosophies on this forum.

Between Dec 2019 and the end of Jan 2020 I re-balanced my 401k into 100% money market and my Roth IRA into 50% cash and 50% brokered CDs maturity dates bt/wn May and August 2020. I re-balanced due to early COVID19 news (I work for a startup currently working on a COVID therapeutic) and my own personal observations traveling to asia earlier this year.

Having already avoided a roughly ~26% loss, is now the time to re-assume my previous positions or should I wait for volatility to come down (ie VIX<40) ?
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

triggertreat
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:36 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by triggertreat » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:01 pm

So use your insider info and figure it out :D

livesoft
Posts: 70110
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by livesoft » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:03 pm

Have you got toilet paper? Are your local stores well-stocked with toilet paper and paper towels? If/when they are, then it is too late to jump back in, so you should anticipate that and make your decision. And of course post back here in this thread when you do. Thanks!
Last edited by livesoft on Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

NotTooDeepLearning
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:04 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by NotTooDeepLearning » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:08 pm

A few days ago was probably a decent time.

User avatar
GerryL
Posts: 2677
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 11:40 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by GerryL » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:18 pm

When to jump back in? That's always the question.

In the words of the late, great Jack Bogle: Nobody knows nothing.

sapper1371
Posts: 154
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:21 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by sapper1371 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:24 pm

Pretty much everyone here would have advised against what you did to get out of the market in Jan/Feb, so why would you want their advice now?

Nobody knows when it is a “good time” to get in or out, the best we can do is advise you to let time do what time has always done in the market.

You got lucky once. That’s not a long term plan.

retired@50
Posts: 1668
Joined: Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:36 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by retired@50 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:26 pm

You're asking a market timing question to a group of non-market timers.

If you base your investing decisions on signals like VIX or other market indicators, then I'd suggest you read this.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

Regards,
Boggle - a game from Parker Brothers. Bogle - investor, founder of Vanguard.

VINNY
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:07 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by VINNY » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:31 pm

Now. Now is always the right time!

If you are risk averse or can't hold equities in stocks, you belong in CD's. Do yourself a favor and stay there until you build the temperament after understanding why you must stay the course.

Otherwise, it will be an expensive lesson.

chevca
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:22 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by chevca » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:45 pm

Dunno, never jumped out. :happy

User avatar
tvubpwcisla
Posts: 201
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:09 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by tvubpwcisla » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:47 pm

It is difficult to predict the tops and bottoms of the markets. What I do know for sure is that markets tend to go up over time. I would jump back in when you feel comfortable. Hopefully you never got out in the first place. :mrgreen:
The secret to building wealth is to have a plan, keep expenses low, become an expert in your craft, consistently buy the market, diversify, establish multiple income streams, and always smile.

260chrisb
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:26 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by 260chrisb » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:49 pm

Well, nobody here is likely to tell you this as you can imagine but marketing timing can work! You've done it. Anything can work once in a while. Most of the folks here take a long term approach, diversify, don't jump in and out, and have no way of telling you when to jump back in, or are even interested in the speculation. Be thankful it worked this time but beware of what history has shown with your approach. I guess Monday would have been a good day for you to have jumped back in. As would have last Thursday been. Maybe April 7? Sorry, I digress. At 29 I was hardly smart enough to understand where my money was going and certainly couldn't have considered market timing. Hopefully future moves in and out of the market work out as well for you as it did this time. I may know the answer.

GT99
Posts: 325
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:26 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by GT99 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:50 pm

I'm not a pure non-timer, with the big exception being a panic situation like this one (I've bought more individual stocks in the past week than I did the previous 10 years combined). I'm a data guy, and I've been tracking the COVID-19 data closely. I say that for context, not to imply I somehow have some magical market knowledge. But based on the trends and the lag of impact from start of lockdown to when the numbers start to plateau, I think the numbers over the next week are going to jar a lot of people and there's still some panic left to be had in the market.

That said, I don't think things are going to go down again substantially from where they closed today - i.e. I think the stimulus package has stabilized things to some degree. My primary point is I don't expect things to shoot back up right now either, so I think you have some time. Frankly, I think anything under a 2500 S&P is a great buy long term, but I think you've got time to get that.

That said, if you want me to tell you what action to take, I'd say get back into equities now. :D It's fun to make predictions, but you've already "won" the market timing game (this time) by moving out. I wouldn't chance losing your win by trying to win a little more.

the way
Posts: 125
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:00 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by the way » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:54 pm

GerryL wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:18 pm
When to jump back in? That's always the question.
Not this time, OP's question should really be "How can I get more equity in my company?" !

vipertom1970
Posts: 598
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:06 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by vipertom1970 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:57 pm

too late to go back in, you got lucky one time by pulling money out but the boat already left the port. Good luck with future timing.

doss
Posts: 338
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:52 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by doss » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:59 pm

Number of Coronavirus posts have slowed on this site. Also, people seem to have begun to relax a bit more in the country. Stock market up multiple days. Dr. Fauci is looking relieved lately. More optimism being printed in the news lately.

User avatar
windaar
Posts: 301
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:31 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by windaar » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:03 pm

This isn't a market timing forum.
Nobody knows nothing.

DonIce
Posts: 836
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:44 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:11 pm

doss wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:59 pm
Number of Coronavirus posts have slowed on this site. Also, people seem to have begun to relax a bit more in the country. Stock market up multiple days. Dr. Fauci is looking relieved lately. More optimism being printed in the news lately.
The calm before the storm?

anon3838
Posts: 109
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 11:54 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by anon3838 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:15 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:03 pm
Have you got toilet paper? Are your local stores well-stocked with toilet paper and paper towels? If/when they are, then it is too late to jump back in, so you should anticipate that and make your decision. And of course post back here in this thread when you do. Thanks!
+1

J295
Posts: 2323
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:40 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by J295 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:17 pm

Best time to plant a tree… 20 years ago
Second best time to plant a tree… Today

I would create an IPS and implement it now, that would include the funding mechanism, whether it be immediately or in stages.

bugleheadd
Posts: 162
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by bugleheadd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:19 pm

why not jump back in tommorow at 9:30am? you beat the game by buying in at 25% discount from peak.

Livelife2fullest
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:00 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Livelife2fullest » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:21 pm

Hard to say. Currently, we’ve seen little, if any numbers, in terms of job losses and earnings hits from COVID 19. I don’t think these numbers will be good. The market expects bad numbers, but panic may follow. I think you have some time and don’t need to rush it. There should be some down days ahead. Perhaps, DCA it over the next month or so, would be my suggestion.

UpperNwGuy
Posts: 3283
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:16 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:23 pm

Jump in when the market hits bottom so you can get the best prices.

nolapepper
Posts: 188
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:06 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by nolapepper » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:26 pm

You got out based on your gut feelings about this virus, so you should get back in when you feel the virus situation is under control.

tibbitts
Posts: 9720
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:50 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by tibbitts » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:29 pm

Never. If you got out, you should stay out. You made one good/lucky decision. Quit while you're ahead. There is really nothing wrong with not investing in equities for the rest of your life.

ionball
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:17 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by ionball » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:31 pm

Why not jump in now? Then plant a tree before the toilet paper returns to the shelves.

User avatar
Rowan Oak
Posts: 556
Joined: Mon May 09, 2016 2:11 pm
Location: Yoknapatawpha

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Rowan Oak » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:24 pm

all in or all out decisions should never be made, ever.

The point is, with investing, less is more because every decision you make makes the next one harder.

If you sold everything and are now sitting in cash, you’re not starting with a clean slate. You’re making decisions with the baggage from the last decision. Doubt, uncertainty, and anxiety are just a few of the emotions that will cloud your vision.

The past two days are a reminder that waiting for the dust to settle is not a strategy, and neither is anything that is predicated on your ability to see into the future.
What Do You Do Now?
Posted March 25, 2020 by Michael Batnick
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

Xrayman69
Posts: 364
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:52 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Xrayman69 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:03 pm

When to jump back in?

I will try to answer but it will be vague and non-specific but based upon the OP’s unique circumstance,. Actually less no answer but more of a way to help OP self reflect.

Full disclosure I have no greater insight than the market at large. “I know nothing” except a few of the following questions that I ask myself and offer to OP

Only you the OP can answer and determine when to jump back in.

Basic questions that you will hear over and over:
What are your goals with investing?
When will you need the cash?
What is your time horizon?
What is your income and stability?
What is your risk tolerance?

Answer these questions then construct an investment plan that you can commit to under extreme swings 10 year bull or a 50% bear.

Make no mistake the clear vision that you were able to proactively act upon is not a reliable method (even for the greatest individual investors admittedly)

You essentially at this time have a 26% “windfall”
Then comes the debate: lump sum or dollar cost averaging


Answer those questions and then

manuvns
Posts: 761
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:30 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by manuvns » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:25 pm

best time to jump back in was on 03/23 .

User avatar
SevenBridgesRoad
Posts: 632
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:14 am
Location: Within Pacific Ring of Fire

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by SevenBridgesRoad » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:37 pm

I think this forum gets trolled a lot.
Retired 2018 age 61 | "Not using an alarm is one of the great glories of my life." Robert Greene

Small Savanna
Posts: 204
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:27 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Small Savanna » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:43 pm

Either three days ago was the bottom or it wasn't; nobody knows. If you want to hedge, do some version of dollar cost averaging over the next few months to a year.

User avatar
ladders11
Posts: 849
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:20 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by ladders11 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:47 pm

Certainly nothing is certain in this world. I don't think we're even close to out if the woods yet, health wise. I'm surprised people think the bottom is in.

You could also wait until markets are above the 200 day moving average, for example. Something like this has research behind it and should provide rules you could follow until you're up to your desired asset allocation.

Or, you could setup automatic weekly investments in order to dollar cost average over the next six months. Again, rules to follow.

Being programmatic is safer than leaving it to your feelings day to day. I know my emotions are way off and the normal activities I do to stay healthy are banned by government decree. So not trusting self is the right call.

Loik098
Posts: 673
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 9:29 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Loik098 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:19 am

SevenBridgesRoad wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:37 pm
I think this forum gets trolled a lot.
+1. OP makes one post, never responds again, and yet people keep feeding knowledge. Why? C'mon, Bogleheads, we're better than this. Too many of these types of posts lately. Save your helpful spirit for young people who actually want to learn, not just post or argue for attention. That's what social media is for, and we don't need to lower our standards to that here.

What's a "professional", anyway?

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5277
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by watchnerd » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:00 am

neonseparatist wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:43 pm
I am a young professional (29) who just got started building my 401k (with Vanguard; TSM, TBM, TISM, REIT) and Roth IRA accounts to plan for retirement a few years ago (2015) at the urging of my previous boss who regularly preached about the investing philosophies on this forum.

Between Dec 2019 and the end of Jan 2020 I re-balanced my 401k into 100% money market and my Roth IRA into 50% cash and 50% brokered CDs maturity dates bt/wn May and August 2020. I re-balanced due to early COVID19 news (I work for a startup currently working on a COVID therapeutic) and my own personal observations traveling to asia earlier this year.

Having already avoided a roughly ~26% loss, is now the time to re-assume my previous positions or should I wait for volatility to come down (ie VIX<40) ?
Uh huh
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

grokzilla
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:25 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by grokzilla » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:39 am

Well, 538's second epidemiological survey is predicting between 246,000 and 1.2 million deaths in the US from the virus in 2020 and a significant second wave of infection between August and November. We're at like 1,000 so far... Probably some volatility ahead.

Of course, like good little bogleheads, the epidemiologists freely admit they aren't really sure where this is going. So maybe 3/23 was it! Or maybe it's 8/1 or 10/5...sometime in 2021?

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 630
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Stef » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:25 am

When? Monday this week when SP500 dropped below 2200.

CTcutter
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:55 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by CTcutter » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:36 am

It is a tough call. Market clearly did not care with dire news 3.3m went unemployed. Will they care when it is 6m next week? I can't believe this has been priced in to bottom.

raoul
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:49 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by raoul » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:44 am

neonseparatist wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:43 pm
I am a young professional (29) who just got started building my 401k (with Vanguard; TSM, TBM, TISM, REIT) and Roth IRA accounts to plan for retirement a few years ago (2015) at the urging of my previous boss who regularly preached about the investing philosophies on this forum.

Between Dec 2019 and the end of Jan 2020 I re-balanced my 401k into 100% money market and my Roth IRA into 50% cash and 50% brokered CDs maturity dates bt/wn May and August 2020. I re-balanced due to early COVID19 news (I work for a startup currently working on a COVID therapeutic) and my own personal observations traveling to asia earlier this year.

Having already avoided a roughly ~26% loss, is now the time to re-assume my previous positions or should I wait for volatility to come down (ie VIX<40) ?
For someone allegedly knowing about trading and the virus impact your actions are those of someone who comes along and inquires that they have 100 dollars, where can they invest it so it grows to 1000 in a month. You also said you avoided a -26% loss. A 3 year old knows that there is NO loss unless you SOLD stock at the depressed price. For savvy investors who simply ignore the chatter and stay the course our portfolios are being rewarded because it seems we are now enter a NEW bull market based on how fast we have climbed out of bear market territory.

raoul
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:49 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by raoul » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:51 am

WARNING- I checked this neoseparatist's profile to look at other postings he's done. Guess what? He joined this site on March 25, posted this message about 1/2 hour later, and that's it! Draw your own conclusions..

Hogan773
Posts: 464
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 11:14 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Hogan773 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:52 am

raoul wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:51 am
WARNING- I checked this neoseparatist's profile to look at other postings he's done. Guess what? He joined this site on March 25, posted this message about 1/2 hour later, and that's it! Draw your own conclusions..
There seem to be some bored people out there who like to troll the forums with somewhat hyperbolic or polarizing posts....and then maybe they just enjoy seeing everyone scramble

Topic Author
neonseparatist
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:22 pm
Location: Oakland, CA

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by neonseparatist » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:27 pm

Thanks everyone for your input. As a novice investor, and without my father around anymore to provide this sort of advice I appreciate all of your opinions.

Like all of you I do not claim to be able to predict the market, so this may be the one time I get lucky. But I believe the question on how best to protect and grow my assets moving forward is valid.

What I can say for certain is the antiviral therapeutic my company is working on is AT LEAST a year away at this point. Antibody testing will come sooner, and possibly the Moderna vaccine next, but producing the technologies on the order of millions will take months.

I agree that a pragmatic approach moving forward is best, so I will decide on an indicator (daily new global cases, 200d moving average, etc.) and DCA back into my previous positions.

I realize now that a post on market timing may have been a faux pas, so my apologies to those who feel it is unwelcome.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 13493
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Toons » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm

When
As Soon As Possible.
The Compounding Machine Never Sleeps
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

whereskyle
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:29 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by whereskyle » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:44 pm

Toons wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm
When
As Soon As Possible.
The Compounding Machine Never Sleeps
:mrgreen:
If you're trying to market time again, I'd say a $2T giftbag to corporations on the president's desk might signal a bottom. If it's not the bottom, Congress will just draft up another one, so in my view, you really can't lose.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

rbaldini
Posts: 1226
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:20 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by rbaldini » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:45 pm

Right now. Maximize time in the market.

User avatar
Cubicle
Posts: 642
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:43 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by Cubicle » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:47 pm

You were lucky to avoid the downturn. Don't mind the sporadic drops from here on out. You still getting things at excellent sales prices. Better then most people on this board, including myself.

Waiting for 40% off pricing later & you may miss 25% off pricing now.
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8084
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by KyleAAA » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:49 pm

You probably never should have gotten out. That said, the best time to jump back in is always now.

raoul
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:49 am

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by raoul » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:48 am

Hogan773 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:52 am
raoul wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:51 am
WARNING- I checked this neoseparatist's profile to look at other postings he's done. Guess what? He joined this site on March 25, posted this message about 1/2 hour later, and that's it! Draw your own conclusions..
There seem to be some bored people out there who like to troll the forums with somewhat hyperbolic or polarizing posts....and then maybe they just enjoy seeing everyone scramble
LOL... Well if that's the case then he was like the person who jumped into water for a nice swim and found it infested with sharks or crocs. This place isn't conducive to his investing philosophy. I think you and others here may have experienced this before, the 'short' sellers are another notorious group of nefarious trolls.

User avatar
timboktoo
Posts: 783
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by timboktoo » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:57 am

Mr. Bogle taught us to Stay the Course and not to engage in market timing. If you haven't read this already, it's a good read:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course

Peace.

- Tim

bding
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:13 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by bding » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:10 am

I believe that you should never pull out of the market. That being said I do believe we will retest the lows over the next quarter or two which makes it a good time to put any excess cash to work. I have excess cash in my emergency fund and put buy orders in at each 5% drop in the S&P out through another 30% downward trend. If it never happens then I have a good cash cushion and never hurts!!!

User avatar
timboktoo
Posts: 783
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: When to jump back in?

Post by timboktoo » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:15 am

neonseparatist wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:27 pm
What I can say for certain is the antiviral therapeutic my company is working on is AT LEAST a year away at this point. Antibody testing will come sooner, and possibly the Moderna vaccine next, but producing the technologies on the order of millions will take months.
Market prices tend to incorporate this same kind of knowledge. Keep in mind that market prices are forward-looking.

To beat the market, one would need a level of insight and a mastery of character than go beyond those who are already participating in the market today. Since investors tend to, as a group, be incredibly intelligent, hard-working and driven to maximize profits, that's a very difficult thing to do. I think that one of the most dangerous things for a young investor to experience is early success with active investing and then to draw incorrect conclusions based on that outperformance.

We don't even try to beat the market or time it. Since markets already price in the information that's publicly available, we don't think we have any additional insight to offer.

When your focus is on the goal in the distance, rather than outperformance in a given quarter, it changes the way you behave. You can then act with discipline according to your plan. Focus on your long-term goal. Visualize it. It helps to tune out the noise. It changes the definition for success from "outperform this quarter" to "hit a long-term savings goal, using an intelligent and disciplined approach."

I hope that helps.

- Tim

Post Reply