Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

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lostdog
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by lostdog » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 am

Alex GR wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:38 am
Mathguy,
For what it's worth, I also can't sleep at night. I wake up thinking: "was this whole coronavirus/market crash thing a dream or did I just lose $150k in 30 days???"
(Some people I know can't save that much in their lifetime)
Really, I am in the same boat. I wake up in the middle of the night and cannot fall asleep for hours. The typical forum response for this is "well then you didn't set the allocation appropriately". I've seen it hundreds of times in response to statements like this.

Having said that, I don't really follow you on the rest of it.
The time to sell (if any) was in late February. For example, when VTI was 170 and dropped to 150, you could sell all stock and hold cash temporarily until the smoke clears. You would have a pretty good chance of getting back in at least @150. Even if the market took off and soared back to 170, at some point it would likely drop and you could get back in.
But now it's simply too late. For all we know, today (or sometime this week) could be another March 9th, 2009.
One thing I could understand is if (following my VTI example) you sell it today @115 and immediately put in orders to buy @105, 100, 95 and 90 (or some variation of this) hoping they execute and (depending on portfolio size) make(save) yourself several thousand dollars. Tens of thousands for a decent portfolio. But then again, what do you do if that doesn't happen? Or, what if only 105 executes and others don't, and the market takes off from there?
I am probably feeling even worse than you are (read the first part of my post). But I realize that the only option at this point is to ignore it and wait for the market to come back.
Can't force myself to rebalance by selling bond and buying stock to return to desired allocation like I am suppose to according to this forum. But have enough strength to ride it out.

P.S. Watchnerd, I know you're reading. You on board with this? (except for the nocturnal part of course) :mrgreen:
I am down twice as much as you. It's not a permanent loss. The first few weeks were rough.

I went through 2008 and saw some colleagues get laid off. 2008 was really bad and dark. Especially in the cold of December.

My CIO halted raises for 3 years.

This will pass and recover. You'll have gained the exposure to a bear market. You will go through another and it will be less of a shock to you.

If you bail, you lock in perm losses. Next you'll have sleepless nights on figuring out on when to get back in because the recovery will be non linear. Your sleepless nights will be much worse because you'll be kicking yourself in not participating in the recovery. You'll be swearing and wringing your hands in anxiety while sitting out and watching the gains.
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bloom2708
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by bloom2708 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:20 am

The correct process was to sell 1-2 weeks ago and then tell everyone you are staying the course. :D

I'm trying out new asset allocations daily/weekly. Started at 60/40. Now 50/50. I'm not rebalancing at this point.

Maybe this IS the time when "stay the course" fails. We won't know until much later.

Good luck!
Last edited by bloom2708 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Nowizard
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Nowizard » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:26 am

Amazing to read threads such as this one where those who are fearful and thinking of extreme, protective measures (Sell it all) receive responses from others who are also trying to calm themselves by reiterating Stay the Course approaches. Some of the latter are supportive of the former while describing their reasons for disagreement, others are not only posting their disagreement but doing so in a way that is disparaging of those considering selling everything.
Everyone is trying to deal with a unique, some say only unusual, circumstance, and those who are most certain of their approach are definitely either a lot smarter than some of the rest of us or whistling through the graveyard.
Our approach is based on consideration of as much information as we can glean and acting/not acting on a combination of our own circumstances and conclusions. Our key is concluding based on our own, present circumstances, not past circumstances, panic or dogma. We have no idea whether decisions will turn out to be accurate, just that we have made ones for which we can accept responsibility. In my opinion that is the most any of us can do, and I wish everyone success based on definitions of the term after consideration of their own circumstances. Differing circumstances may lead to different but equally rational responses.

Tim

ch4au2
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by ch4au2 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 am

I've been a reader of the forum for a while, but I have very few posts. For much of my time reading here, I was trying to learn. For years I used a financial adviser to manage my portfolio as I was head deep in my own company and didn't take the time to understand what to do.

Looking back, I'm not too dissatisfied with what my financial adviser did, but at the same time I realize I would have been much better off to come here, learn, and do it myself. I'm at peace that all that, so no issues.

I took over my own management when I retired, as I had more time to deal with it. So I'm already retired and drawing my retirement from my portfolio. I settled on basically the 3-fund portfolio idea but actually implemented it with just 2 funds VTI and BND. I settled on a 50/50 split, but my plan did deviate from the standard advice in that I always imagined sort of a "variable split" concept.

The idea was that during most normal times, I would maintain a 50/50 split, but if there was an "opportunity time" similar to 2008 or other major declines, that I would not only rebalance, but I would also shift my split percentages to move more heavily into the VTI portion. The reasoning came about due to looking at and studying charts of what returns look like during the 10 year period AFTER one of these events. Then as things move back to a steady state after an event, I gradually move back to a 50/50 split, doing so at appropriate times to take advantage of taxes.

I'll also note that I keep 3 years worth of living expenses in cash pretty much all the time. It does waver a bit due to the way I cash out things for living expenses, i.e. I don't do it every month.

So, what have I done over the past month??

Unlike the OP, I have followed my plan to a tee. I rebalanced and moved money over to VTI when it was at 141, I did some more at 125, I did some more at 115, and I have limit buys in for 110 and 105! And I'm holding out some more cash in case it goes below 100 or whatever.

Not only am I not "freaking out" but for the first time in my life I'm really excited about all this. It's not going to bankrupt me, it's not going to undo anything I've worked for. What it IS going to do, is make me a much higher return than my forecasts!

Steady as she goes Captain, calm seas ahead!

CH

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BogleFanGal
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by BogleFanGal » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:53 am

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:17 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
I will be happy to buy all your shares.

And buy more as we get "near zero".

I will add them to my collection of shares and love them in their new forever home.
:twisted: this one's my favorite
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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:57 am

ch4au2 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 am

Not only am I not "freaking out" but for the first time in my life I'm really excited about all this. It's not going to bankrupt me, it's not going to undo anything I've worked for. What it IS going to do, is make me a much higher return than my forecasts!

Steady as she goes Captain, calm seas ahead!

CH
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You will enjoy your larger collection of shares for decades to come.
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7eight9
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by 7eight9 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:07 am

There gets to a point where everyone has to sell. If you can't afford to lose any more you must get out.

Taylor Larimore wrote a very good post about it "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor.

viewtopic.php?t=30085

Those who are mocking the OP might consider that their personal financial situation is likely different than that of the OP. A bit more consideration and less snark would be nice.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Chip
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Chip » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:52 am

7eight9 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:07 am
There gets to a point where everyone has to sell. If you can't afford to lose any more you must get out.
Not true. I will stop rebalancing when I hit a fixed income floor. But that doesn't mean I'll sell equities.

By my way of thinking if you have to sell equities because you can't afford to lose any more you simply had too much in equities.

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HomerJ
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by HomerJ » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:54 am

7eight9 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:07 am
There gets to a point where everyone has to sell. If you can't afford to lose any more you must get out.

Taylor Larimore wrote a very good post about it "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor.

viewtopic.php?t=30085

Those who are mocking the OP might consider that their personal financial situation is likely different than that of the OP. A bit more consideration and less snark would be nice.
The right solution is to not have that much in the stock market to begin with.

In Taylor's example, he said if $600,000 is your bare minimum to survive (and he was talking as a retiree, not someone still working and accumulating), then you should sell if your portfolio drops to $600,000.

But I respectfully disagree. That hypothetical retiree should have $600,000 in CDs/bonds/cash all along, and the rest in stocks. Then you're not forced to sell at the bottom.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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HomerJ
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by HomerJ » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:01 am

OP, I understand your fear.

I suggest having a floor of bonds/CDs/cash.

If not this time, then next time.

Even this time I wouldn't go 100% cash... Cash out enough to get you through 5-10 years, and keep the rest in stocks.

But if you can't do that now, then next time.

Switching from 100% stocks to 100% cash is a terrible way to invest.

Instead, find a more conservative allocation that you can hold onto for the long run.

Having a huge chunk of money in bonds/CDs/cash gives you peace of mind. but having a good chunk in stocks too means you won't miss out on all the future gains.

50/50 is a great place to be, for example... You're never wrong.

50/50 is refusing to make a prediction... Best of both worlds.. :)
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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nps
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by nps » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 am

7eight9 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:07 am
There gets to a point where everyone has to sell. If you can't afford to lose any more you must get out.

Taylor Larimore wrote a very good post about it "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor.

viewtopic.php?t=30085

Those who are mocking the OP might consider that their personal financial situation is likely different than that of the OP. A bit more consideration and less snark would be nice.
There are people on this forum advising that we shouldn't invest anything we can't afford to lose. If people actually followed that advice, some people would never have to sell.

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:12 am

nps wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 am
There are people on this forum advising that we shouldn't invest anything we can't afford to lose. If people actually followed that advice, some people would never have to sell.
+1

Our liquid portfolio is 70% stocks, but that's only 35% of our net worth. Losing it all won't break our finances.
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Tracker968
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Tracker968 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:17 pm

Has the OP seen this chart? Where on the chart do you think you are?

Image

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jabberwockOG
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by jabberwockOG » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm

Here is my WAG at what is very likely going to happen - Within 6-12 months the medical and scientific community will have announced that they have developed both a vaccine as well as reliable treatments for the worst cases of the Corona virus. Multiple vaccines will likely be widely available in mass dosages within 18 months. In addition the current infection rates in countries that have run away infections will convey herd immunity on their remaining population. Somewhere along this time line the stock market will start to bounce back because it is a leading economic indicator.

How fast and how robust the market price comeback will be is in question. It could come back very quickly, or very slowly, depending how much economic damage has been done by that point, but it will come back up.

This is a major public health crisis that admittedly has very significantly but temporarily bled into the economy. 90% plus of the people that get sick from this virus recover and can go back at work within 2-3 weeks. It is not a walking dead scenario. Calm down. Quit looking at your portfolio except to execute appropriate periodic TLH transactions.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:10 pm

It looks like you missed the bounce this morning, OP. Buckle up and enjoy the ride with the rest of us.

helloeveryone
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by helloeveryone » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:39 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:44 pm
celia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:37 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
Do you really think all the stock in your mutual funds or ETFs will go bankrupt? Do you think even 1 will? (I’d believe 1 or 2, but not ALL of them.)
I don't think the stocks will go bankrupt. The companies that I own are high quality companies, but the current market movements are not tied to the fundamental health of US businesses. I understand restaurants and airlines will suffer, but the broad market is crashing due to a virus pandemic and will continue to do so until there is some news of improvement. I didn't say stock will go to zero. I simply cannot wait for stocks to keep crashing down at this rate. It is the rate of the free fall that I'm concerned about. I think stocks will recover eventually, but as I said before, I cannot wait for the bottom of a great depression. That is too much of a loss for me to handle. I was prepared for a bear market, not a depression in stock prices.
Or you in retirement? if not how many years away are you from retirement?

I don’t understand the absolute need to sell all equities

Simon Bart
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Simon Bart » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:51 pm

BigDrop wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm

Will you really want to shake a hand, hug or share a bite? It’s different now. It’s not about a dollar-it’s about our lives.
That is what I miss the most and I will always want to come back to this. I'm pretty sure everyone will come back to this.
This is what binds friends & community. Eventually herd immunity will do it's job.

Chip
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Chip » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:21 am

As I write this the futures are up about 5%. OP, is this the bounce which will cause you to sell?

I still recommend that you stay the course and avoid the permanent loss of capital which will likely occur if you sell now.

Enzo IX
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Enzo IX » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:09 am

OP,

Here's your bounce, it ain't gonna get any better.

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WoodSpinner
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by WoodSpinner » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:48 am

Looks like today is BOUNCE day...

Best of luck

WoodSpinner

vipertom1970
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vipertom1970 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:49 am

sell then FOMO will kick in.....natural human greed.

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unclescrooge
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:33 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 am
I'm done wasting my time with useless advice and taking criticism for trying to preserve my hard earned savings. I don't care about achieving the highest future gains. It's not a guarantee that stocks will be higher 10 years from now. What I care about is surviving today and tomorrow as I have no one to depend on. Some people on this forum make sick with their comments. I've done extremely well as a self directed investor. I have the right to have a different investment strategy. Don't criticize me for not being a boglehead.
Here's your bounce. I hope you were able to sell.

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baconavocado
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by baconavocado » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:02 pm

I guess we can assume the sale was executed . . .

Elysium
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Elysium » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm

OP, are you selling? curious minds wants to know, or is this the start of a rally, market often is ahead of news, so who knows if we end up opening up businesses back in another week, and new stimulus coming in.. always hard to guess the direction right twice.

chevca
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by chevca » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:07 pm

I think it's easier to talk than act. I'm going to assume OP doesn't pull the trigger today.

Alex GR
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Alex GR » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:12 pm

Elysium wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
OP, are you selling? curious minds wants to know, or is this the start of a rally, market often is ahead of news, so who knows if we end up opening up businesses back in another week, and new stimulus coming in.. always hard to guess the direction right twice.
OP said he is done "wasting his time" and listening to our criticism.
S&P is back to 2400 and the bailout hasn't been signed yet, they're still negotiation.
Could go to 2500-2600 when they sign the bill.
Difficult decision. "Nobody knows nothing" has been a common phrase on this forum lately. I've only now come to fully understand what it really means. Could drop to 1500 due to lost long-term income, could come back to 2700+ levels on more positive news.

annu
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by annu » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:19 pm

OP, dont leave us hanging :D , did you sell?

inverter
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by inverter » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:22 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 am
I'm done wasting my time with useless advice and taking criticism for trying to preserve my hard earned savings. I don't care about achieving the highest future gains. It's not a guarantee that stocks will be higher 10 years from now. What I care about is surviving today and tomorrow as I have no one to depend on. Some people on this forum make sick with their comments. I've done extremely well as a self directed investor. I have the right to have a different investment strategy. Don't criticize me for not being a boglehead.
Why are on you on this forum then? Go elsewhere. /r/investing

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by WhiteMaxima » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:25 pm

Go ahead. It's your money.

whereskyle
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by whereskyle » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:36 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:01 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:59 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:50 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:47 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:44 pm
I was prepared for a bear market.
No you weren't. People thought the world was ending in 2008 too. I hope you find peace in your decision.
This is very different from 2008. I was almost 100% in stocks through the 2008 financial crisis. If I had the same net worth back then, I would maintain my asset allocation. The free fall in stock prices that we see today is not normal behavior in bear markets. The rate of the fall that we see today is far from normal in bear markets. That is proof that this time is VERY different.
You’re wrong.

In October 2008 the S&P 500 fell 25% over eight trading days.

What we are seeing now is not unprecedented at all.
The S&P 500 crashed 32% in one month and will crash this week. When have we seen close to a 40% crash in one month aside from the great depression?
I understand that looking at the percentage drop as a lump is common, but you're not accounting for the fact that investors were already concerned about high stock prices. I'd attribute at least 10% of the drop to those concerns. Investors were already looking for a reason to sell. Then, I'd attribute the other 20% drop to a huge decline in short-term economic outlook. Of course this is different than 2008. Worse? Pure speculation on your part. Crashes are always different, but they are always the same in the sense they've never ended our ability to own portions of private companies, which have bounced back every single time. You really think that the peak we just hit is the highest the markets will ever go because of a viral outbreak? On what grounds exactly? Unless you can describe why this is different (other than the rate of the drop, which again is largely motivated by the fact that people have years of gains to collect on and not on reasonable fears of the long-term destruction of the market), you're justifying a panic sale, which is fine if you presently have enough money to live on.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

the way
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by the way » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:40 pm

Elysium wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
OP, are you selling? curious minds wants to know, or is this the start of a rally, market often is ahead of news, so who knows if we end up opening up businesses back in another week, and new stimulus coming in.. always hard to guess the direction right twice.
Not the OP, but if the gains hold, I will probably put in an order 15mins before the close to liquidate my IRA. We've have had so many +10 and -10% days that this bounce can't be the end of it. I also have other accounts, so this way if things really dive, at least I will have done something.

Events to watch for:
- 2T relief bill that is being debated right now
- huge unemployment report coming out later this week
- Trump opening business in 2-3 weeks
- how much of a surge and how prepared the hospitals are by 3-4 weeks
- how much long-term damage was done to small businesses and jobs in 2-3 months
Last edited by the way on Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:46 pm

the way wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:40 pm

- Trump opening business in 2-3 weeks
Saying it doesn't make it so.

States and localities have autonomy regarding emergency orders to stay at home, business/school closures.

Consumers have autonomy.
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Soundguy7
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Soundguy7 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:55 pm

OP, what is your time horizon?

annu
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by annu » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:07 pm

the way wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:40 pm
Elysium wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
OP, are you selling? curious minds wants to know, or is this the start of a rally, market often is ahead of news, so who knows if we end up opening up businesses back in another week, and new stimulus coming in.. always hard to guess the direction right twice.
Not the OP, but if the gains hold, I will probably put in an order 15mins before the close to liquidate my IRA. We've have had so many +10 and -10% days that this bounce can't be the end of it. I also have other accounts, so this way if things really dive, at least I will have done something.

btw, I did panic and move my 401k to cash during the "Little Rocketman" stuff, and stayed in cash ever since! I lost 2+ years of gains, but guess what - it would have been 25% down at yesterday's price (that's from my sale price - not from the highs)! So if I can get back in later at anything lower in these 2 accounts, it will have been a good move.

Events to watch for:
- 2T relief bill that is being debated right now
- huge unemployment report coming out later this week
- Trump opening business in 2-3 weeks
- how much of a surge and how prepared the hospitals are by 3-4 weeks
- how much long-term damage was done to small businesses and jobs in 2-3 months
What if at the end of the day, info leaks out about the relief package in the last 15 minutes or so of the market(before closing), it happened during presidents address by the way a week or so ago, where during the last 20/30 minutes, market went up by a lot, but this time it goes down same as gains, or even more down? You can lose a lot.
Hindsight is always right/correct, that is the whole point of looking back at things...

I will recommend not to sell all man, I know we are internet strangers, but I will not let my enemy make this kind of move, as I will like them to live long and prosper, so they can see how I awesome I will be doing :D, and pain in their life should be sourced to me, not some stock investment decisions they made out of fear/concern

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:13 pm

Gufomel wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:03 am
The number of capitulation threads on here give me hope that we are near the bottom.
Maybe it was yesterday?

But I think it's equally likely we get a bear rally bounce, go down a bit more, and then we hit the bottom.
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by jpmorganfunds » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:17 pm

Tracker968 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:17 pm
Has the OP seen this chart? Where on the chart do you think you are?

Image
Denial

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by minimalistmarc » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:47 pm
We have a long way to go before the bottom is reached. As I said before, I was prepared for a bear market, not a depression. This is not panic selling or capitulation. This is a well thought out decision to preserve gains. Most people didn't do as well as I did in the stock market so I am sitting on a huge gain even after the market crashed 32%. By selling, I'll be locking in my outperformance and moving to a much safer allocation for my age.
There seems to be a lot of panic sellers in denial about their panic

MDfan
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by MDfan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:28 pm

vipertom1970 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:46 pm
celia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:43 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:32 pm
There is nothing wrong with becoming a much more conservative investor at this time to preserve those many years of gains.
True, but isn’t 100% a little extreme? Do you think your portfolio should be 100% bonds/cash (which is what you’re planning)?

If you do sell, I’d like to buy your stock funds too!

Please list them so we can shop.
I think he already made up his mind based on another thread.


The fact that he has to start different threads to say the same thing makes me think this is much more about convincing himself that he's doing the right thing. If this is how you feel, then just go ahead and do it. No need to keep telling everyone else in different threads.

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:29 pm

jpmorganfunds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:17 pm
Tracker968 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:17 pm
Has the OP seen this chart? Where on the chart do you think you are?

Image
Denial
I thought he was at 'Panic', sell everything, get out
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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:31 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm


There seems to be a lot of panic sellers in denial about their panic
Aren't they usually?

I've never met a panic seller who admits they're panicking. It's always rationalized as being an entirely reasonable act.
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whereskyle
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by whereskyle » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:29 pm
jpmorganfunds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:17 pm
Tracker968 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:17 pm
Has the OP seen this chart? Where on the chart do you think you are?

Image
Denial
I thought he was at 'Panic', sell everything, get out
Agreed, but maybe JP is at denial. This is my first rodeo, and I'm glad I saw this chart because I need to steel myself for another set of drops.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

batrleby
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by batrleby » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:35 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:47 pm
I am sitting on a huge gain even after the market crashed 32%. By selling, I'll be locking in my outperformance and moving to a much safer allocation for my age.
"The advice ‘you never go broke taking a profit’ is foolish."

"An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes."

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 percent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."

-- Warren Buffett

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:38 pm

whereskyle wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm

Agreed, but maybe JP is at denial. This is my first rodeo, and I'm glad I saw this chart because I need to steel myself for another set of drops.
This may be intermission between Act I and Act II.

Act I -- panicked de-risking

Intermission: A Light Bear Rally to Lift the Spirits

Act II -- market responding to earnings and unemployment data as it starts to come in, either better or worse than what was priced in
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Chip
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Chip » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:40 pm

OP has been in the forum this afternoon. Maybe we'll get an update.

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by bloom2708 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:41 pm

This isn't over by a long shot.

But, think of the people who stayed the course until yesterday (Monday 3/23) and sold. Now they missed the ~10% rally.

Keep the rudder steady.
"We are here to provoke thoughtfulness, not agree with you." Unknown Boglehead

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mathguy3021
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by mathguy3021 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm

This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.

vipertom1970
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vipertom1970 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:59 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
"Selling 100% stocks on a bounce"

lol, then this thread is now useless because of FOMO. You either have greed or fear but can't have both greed and fear and be successful in the stock market.

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Stef
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Stef » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:09 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
What about this?

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:13 pm

vipertom1970 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:59 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
"Selling 100% stocks on a bounce"

lol, then this thread is now useless because of FOMO. You either have greed or fear but can't have both greed and fear and be successful in the stock market.
+1

How many times have we seen this emotional drama cycle before?
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ginrummy
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by ginrummy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm

He was a good sport to come back. Do what you like OP, but I hope the criticism of the board helped change your mind. You reached out and you got an answer. Nice work.

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