Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

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Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

Ocean77 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:22 pm
Or maybe it's a hedge fund manager who shorted the market and now tries to drive it down...

I mean it's hard to imagine how somebody who reads up on John Bogle's works, decides to follows his principles, then finds this site as a place of like-minded investors would then create an OP like this.
No, I'm not a hedge fund manager. I'm not a troll. I'm not any of that. I'm an investor that started during this long Bull Market and this rapid market decline, with circuit breakers going off, is scaring the living hell out of me. This looks different and feels different. Everything is shutting down.

I've made the post here because I started in equities based on Jack Bogle. Right now, I'm scared as hell. And again, I'm not the only one.
Last edited by Ambitious994 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm Guys, thanks a lot for all of the comments and I really appreciate it. Quite honestly, I know I'm not the only person (Millennial or other Generation) that is feeling scared out of their minds right now and they might be reading this forum. So I can assure you I'm not "trolling" and yes, I recently did create my Username because again, quite honestly, I'm scared out of my mind.

But I do want to ask you guys a question though. Some of the responses from you guys is stating that you think the market will continue to fall to a 50% loss and more pain is ahead.

Now, if you are stating this, my question is wouldn't that align with my fear that the market is going to keep going lower and I should move the monies off to the side for now....then get back in later? No, there's no perfect later, I get that, but you have circuit breakers breaking in relation to how fast the markets are falling.

When I state that there could be DOW 15000 I disagree with you guys with your statement that I'm not as "optimistic" about the market. In the long term, I do believe the market will go back up. I'm not trying to be a day trader. I'm looking at this and saying is DOW 19000 the worse this is going to get or is it going to DOW 17000? If it's going to DOW 17000 or DOW 15000 like even some of you have said, then I'm trying to honestly figure out why are we staying in the market if most of us have a good ESTIMATE that it's likely to fall this low?

Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?

I'm just asking some questions and trust me guys....there are others viewing this thread have the same questions and concerns.
If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm
If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
flaccidsteele
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by flaccidsteele »

The stock market is a wealth transfer device from the emotional to the opportunistic

For better or worse most people don’t have the temperament to be financially independent

There’s a reason it’s called the 1%
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
DoubleClick
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by DoubleClick »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 pm I'm an investor that started during this long Bull Market and this rapid market decline, with circuit breakers going off, is scaring the living hell out of me. This looks different and feels different. Everything is shutting down.

I've made the post here because I started in equities based on Jack Bogle. Right now, I'm scared as hell. And again, I'm not the only one.
I think this is what everyone here may be telling you. You started in a bull market. Is it possible that your first sighting of a bear is making you take fear based decisions that may not be in your best interests?

Anyway, you seem very convinced and confident in your decisions. If so, I'm curious as to the point of your original post. Are you seeking validation? Or is some part of you doubting your own actions and seeking clarity? Why not take a few minutes to understand what it is you seek, and then express that here? People may be able to help you better if you do so (if you want help).
DoTheMath
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by DoTheMath »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:40 pm So here's what I just did, I cancelled the "Sell" transaction in Vanguard. It's Saturday anyway and it wasn't going to be processed until end of day on Monday. So I cancelled it and I'm going to hold and just keep riding it.
....
So I'll stay the course. Maybe that's why I posted on here. I needed the spirit of Jack Bogle during this time.
First and foremost, it is your money and you have every right to do with it as you will.

Folks are giving you their (knowledgeable) opinions and you can take it or leave it. As you read (and hopefully reread!) what folks have written, please recognize that people are speaking from both an understanding of the theory, but also from long experience. Also recognize that they are giving you their honest opinion and won't be affected one way or the other by what you decide (unlike, say, financial advisors or politicians). It's also worth keeping in mind that many of these folks have lost 10x, 20x, or 30x as much as you in the past month. This is not to say your losses aren't painful, just that they are in the same boat.

These are unprecedented times. But so was the GFC, 9/11, stagflation, and WWII. BHers have lived through all of these and it's not obvious that this will turn out to be worse than any of those. It definitely could be, but it's too early tell. Much will become clear when testing becomes widespread.

In any case, the information you cite is publicly known. The markets and the BHers responding to you also know it. Now you may be right that they are all underestimating things, but it is worth asking yourself if your fear is pushing you to a more extreme judgment than the data currently supports.
Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:40 pm The reason being is that honestly, I don't know what's about to happen but I have a strong FEAR (yes, it's completely FEAR) that DOW is about to bleed to 15000. But I don't know.
You have written this repeatedly, but it's not clear to me why you should care if the market goes to 15000 or 12000 or whatever if you believe it will eventually recover and hit new highs (as you've also repeatedly written). If you are in it for the long term, then this too will pass, just like the 20% drop in December 2018 and (it turns out) the 30% rise in 2019. If your goal is to not lose money, then it doesn't matter as long as you ride it out to the other side.

If it is your goal to make money out of this situation, then sure, if you sell now and the market does go down and you find the intestinal fortitude to buy back in while the market is lower than it is right now, overall you will make money. Although, honestly, if you run the numbers of reasonable scenarios you'll see that you won't make that much. What is an extra, say, $20k compared to how much you are putting in each year or how much you'll have in 20 years when you retire? Of course, in making this move you also run the real risk that you buy back in at current prices or higher, and then you'll lose money.

If your goal is to not feel fear, stress, or worry, then that is another thing. This is part of the price of reaping the reward of being in the market on good days. The best thing you can do is learn to cope and be as even-keeled as your fellow BHers in the face of storms. If you can learn to let it not bother you too much, then you'll have given yourself a wonderful gift. The alternative is either a lifetime of worry or much lower investment returns which, in turn, force you to earn and save many more of the dollars you'll need in retirement.
Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:40 pm I can tell you I'm already in terms of allocation leveraged very conservative anyway. I'm 36 and the usual recommendation is to have your age in Bonds let's say, so I should have maybe 60% of my entire investable assets in equities anyway and I don't. I know you guys are going to probably jump on me about that lol, but I'm a Conservative investor and trust me if I'm a little panicky about the percentage of my investable assets in the market right now........I would probably need to be hospitalized if 90% of my assets or something was in the market right now lol.
It sounds like you've already learned valuable information about yourself. The question is how to put that information to good use for the long run.
Last edited by DoTheMath on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“I am losing precious days. I am degenerating into a machine for making money. I am learning nothing in this trivial world of men. I must break away and get out into the mountains...” -- John Muir
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm
If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
Until you understand that the market is forward looking and could easily jump 25% while we are on a military mandated shutdown but with the end in sight (even if a month or three away), then I can’t help you. It would not be that outlandish for Friday’s close to be the low.

Of course this is you timing the market. If that’s what you want to do, that’s your decision, but I’m trying to ensure you do it with your eyes as open as possible to how the market works.
flaccidsteele
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by flaccidsteele »

When I was younger I used to think about my taking assets like stocks and homes on the cheap, from people during crisis. Taking from the poor, the scared, the retiree, the single parent. I realized that if it wasn’t me taking it, that it would be some other member of the 1% taking it, so I took it

Besides, it’s not like I was stealing. Like the OP, the poor and middle class *wanted* me to take it 🤷‍♂️
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

flaccidsteele wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:56 pm When I was younger I used to think about my taking assets like stocks and homes from people during crisis. Taking from the poor, the scared, the retiree, the single parent. I realized that if it wasn’t me taking it, that it would be some other member of the 1% taking it, so I took it

Besides, it’s not like I was stealing. The poor and middle class *wanted* me to take it 🤷‍♂️
Harsh but true. The money always has a way of moving from weak hands to strong ones.
stuper1
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by stuper1 »

I haven't read this whole thread, so I'm probably about to restate something that has already been said.

It's very hard to invest successfully if you are ruled by your emotions. That's why so many people here say that a key thing is to make an Investment Policy Statement, so that you think things out ahead of time and don't act on emotion. One key way to take emotions out of it is to pick a stock/bond allocation that you are comfortable with. You should do this at a time when you are free of stress (not in the middle of a market meltdown). This stock/bond allocation can be anything from 5/95 to 95/5, but for most people it should probably be between 25/75 and 75/25. Then, a very key thing is that whenever you get more than 5% away from your target allocation, you simply rebalance back to whatever your target allocation is. This makes it automatic. You are automatically selling the better performing asset (selling high) and buying the less performing asset (buying low). It's like magic. It takes all emotion out of it, and it should in the long-run work out very well for you.
Gufomel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Gufomel »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm Guys, thanks a lot for all of the comments and I really appreciate it. Quite honestly, I know I'm not the only person (Millennial or other Generation) that is feeling scared out of their minds right now and they might be reading this forum. So I can assure you I'm not "trolling" and yes, I recently did create my Username because again, quite honestly, I'm scared out of my mind.

But I do want to ask you guys a question though. Some of the responses from you guys is stating that you think the market will continue to fall to a 50% loss and more pain is ahead.

Now, if you are stating this, my question is wouldn't that align with my fear that the market is going to keep going lower and I should move the monies off to the side for now....then get back in later? No, there's no perfect later, I get that, but you have circuit breakers breaking in relation to how fast the markets are falling.

When I state that there could be DOW 15000 I disagree with you guys with your statement that I'm not as "optimistic" about the market. In the long term, I do believe the market will go back up. I'm not trying to be a day trader. I'm looking at this and saying is DOW 19000 the worse this is going to get or is it going to DOW 17000? If it's going to DOW 17000 or DOW 15000 like even some of you have said, then I'm trying to honestly figure out why are we staying in the market if most of us have a good ESTIMATE that it's likely to fall this low?

Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?

I'm just asking some questions and trust me guys....there are others viewing this thread have the same questions and concerns.
The problem is you THINK the market is going lower, but you don’t know that. As many people have pointed out, what if it doesn’t go lower? What if it never goes lower than it is right now? What do you do then? It’s then a really REALLY difficult emotional decision to get back in at a higher point than where you exited. And you keep waiting and waiting thinking it will drop back to lower than where you sold. But then it doesn’t. And you wait, and wait. For how long? And at what cost to your financial future?

It feels like an easy decision right now. It is not.
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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:55 pm Until you understand that the market is forward looking and could easily jump 25% while we are on a military mandated shutdown but with the end in sight (even if a month or three away), then I can’t help you. It would not be that outlandish for Friday’s close to be the low.
I must have missed the "military mandated shutdown"? Are you talking about the United States?
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watchnerd
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm
Now, if you are stating this, my question is wouldn't that align with my fear that the market is going to keep going lower and I should move the monies off to the side for now....then get back in later?
Don't think about what Mr. Market is saying your shares are worth.

He's a bit bipolar, and sometimes downright irrational.

You have the same number of shares no matter what he says.

https://fs.blog/2013/11/mr-market/

Add to your collection while they're cheap, but keep what you have.

Later in life, you'll have many more shares in your collection.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

nps wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:12 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:55 pm Until you understand that the market is forward looking and could easily jump 25% while we are on a military mandated shutdown but with the end in sight (even if a month or three away), then I can’t help you. It would not be that outlandish for Friday’s close to be the low.
I must have missed the "military mandated shutdown"? Are you talking about the United States?
Yes I was talking about the US and yes, there isn't currently one or any discussion of one. I am trying to hammer the point in to the OP that things can get worse economically or with the virus, but as long as the situation is trending better than the (already grim) expectation, then equity markets can bottom and start to rise steadily, even if unemployment and deaths are still rising.

Military mandated shutdown is an extreme option which someone like the OP may view as a guaranteed stock-market drop, but it can also indicate that the administration is taking things extra serious and is willing to be more aggressive now, in hopes of reducing the overall economic impact (shorter duration). Bill Ackman recently said the same thing, that equity markets would "soar" if we all just stayed inside for 30 days.

You didn't ask, but I actually think that would be best for us globally. This is a great read on that subject which doesn't explicitly call out the military but does push for a near-term very aggressive mandated shutdown, followed by a longer period of management: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56
kelvan80
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by kelvan80 »

On March 13 you posted this.

If you are invested in a well diversified index fund like the S&P 500 and you have a long time horizon, then you have nothing to worry about. If you have a short time horizon and/or you aren't invested in a sound equity investment, then yes there should be some level of concern.

Did your timeline change?
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Third Son
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Third Son »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown.

I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.

- As a result, stocks are going to roller coaster ride all the way to DOW 15,000 in my opinion (or lower).

- I have $55,000 to recover (portion of principal and growth) in order to get back to the amount my equity investments were at the peak in January 2020. I have a long time horizon (25 years) to get the recovery back, but I don't see why I should stay in here and ride the market all the way down as now that $55,000 amount balloons to $70,000 or $75,000.

- So my strategy here is to move the monies to the side, let The Great Shutdown end, then get back in the market later.

- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not. I'm not trying to perfectly get out and get back in perfectly at the bottom, I don't know what the bottom is on this but I am predicting it's going to be way lower than DOW 19000 as of yesterday.

- So I made the move to move the monies out of equities and off to the side for now, until The Great Shutdown is over. I'll move the monies back in later in the year. Can I miss some gains with this? Yes. For example, DOW can ride down to 15,000 and spike to 17,000 and I miss it that portion. I get it. But by not having rode down to 15,000 I can afford to miss said gains and get back in around 17,000 in this example.

Again, I know this looks like timing the market, but there's no way with The Great Shutdown that stocks aren't about to tank lower. There's just no way.
You're in denial. You are timing the market.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon
Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

kelvan80 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:28 pm On March 13 you posted this.

If you are invested in a well diversified index fund like the S&P 500 and you have a long time horizon, then you have nothing to worry about. If you have a short time horizon and/or you aren't invested in a sound equity investment, then yes there should be some level of concern.

Did your timeline change?
Yes. That's what I'm saying I've been a strong passive investor for awhile. I've never seen anything like this though with The Great Shutdown. It's not the day to day roller coaster of the stock market that's scaring me, it's The Great Shutdown and the huge unemployment numbers, bankruptcies, and other issues to come from it.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm
If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
Wow. Four pages and, I think, the OP has come full circle - - brink - back from brink - brink.

My hat is off to those long time BHers tugging him/her back from the brink (with multiple attempts!).

To the OP: You are looking at timing the market. Some individuals have successfully timed the market - you may be one of them. In four pages of comments, I'd suggest you have some advice to consider. Best of luck with your investments.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by flaccidsteele »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:32 pm
kelvan80 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:28 pm On March 13 you posted this.

If you are invested in a well diversified index fund like the S&P 500 and you have a long time horizon, then you have nothing to worry about. If you have a short time horizon and/or you aren't invested in a sound equity investment, then yes there should be some level of concern.

Did your timeline change?
Yes. That's what I'm saying I've been a strong passive investor for awhile. I've never seen anything like this though with The Great Shutdown. It's not the day to day roller coaster of the stock market that's scaring me, it's The Great Shutdown and the huge unemployment numbers, bankruptcies, and other issues to come from it.
Unfortunately history has shown repeatedly that you will be wrong

And a decade later the 1% will be richer and everybody will say that it’s not fair 🤦‍♂️
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
ljb1234
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by ljb1234 »

lostdog wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:16 pm You'll regret this move later. You'll torture yourself even more trying to figure out on when to get back in.

If you can't handle a 50% drop, you shouldn't be in equities at all.

"If You Can’t Stomach 50% Declines in Your Investment You Will Get the Mediocre Returns You Deserve"
-Charlie Munger

Stop watching the news and listening to the fear mongers and timers on this board.

This board has turned into a mess lately.
I don't know your age, but if you lost $50,000, I suspect you are under 50 with many years of work to go. If that's true buy more, don't sell.

I don't get people that were more than willing to buy equities hand over fist 2 months ago at full price, and now that there is a 30+% discount, they want out. This does not make sense to me. Buy low, sell high. Not the other way around.

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." Warren Buffett
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

flaccidsteele wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:35 pm
Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:32 pm
kelvan80 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:28 pm On March 13 you posted this.

If you are invested in a well diversified index fund like the S&P 500 and you have a long time horizon, then you have nothing to worry about. If you have a short time horizon and/or you aren't invested in a sound equity investment, then yes there should be some level of concern.

Did your timeline change?
Yes. That's what I'm saying I've been a strong passive investor for awhile. I've never seen anything like this though with The Great Shutdown. It's not the day to day roller coaster of the stock market that's scaring me, it's The Great Shutdown and the huge unemployment numbers, bankruptcies, and other issues to come from it.
Unfortunately history has shown repeatedly that you will be wrong

And a decade later the 1% will be richer and everybody will say that it’s not fair 🤦‍♂️
Agreed.
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steve roy
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by steve roy »

Ambitious 994

In 2003 I bailed out of my S&P 500 position. I had hung on for two down years, but the third down year (the biggest decline yet) got me. I sold at the bottom.

I didn't know it was the bottom. All I knew was that I'd lost 45% of my stake, and I was sick of it. Now, 17 years later, I wish I had started adding to my S&P 500 index fund, but I wasn't that smart.

This time around, DW and I have lost a lot of money in equities. We will no doubt lose more. But we ain't selling. When the dust clears ... which I think will happen in eight to eighteen months, we'll begin buying stocks again.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

steve roy wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:50 pm Ambitious 994

In 2003 I bailed out of my S&P 500 position. I had hung on for two down years, but the third down year (the biggest decline yet) got me. I sold at the bottom.

I didn't know it was the bottom. All I knew was that I'd lost 45% of my stake, and I was sick of it. Now, 17 years later, I wish I had started adding to my S&P 500 index fund, but I wasn't that smart.

This time around, DW and I have lost a lot of money in equities. We will no doubt lose more. But we ain't selling. When the dust clears ... which I think will happen in eight to eighteen months, we'll begin buying stocks again.
The last part shocked me. Didn't you learn your lesson 17 years later? Why wait for the dust to settle to start buying?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ocean77 »

Seeing posts like these, with people spending the weekend watching the news, getting more and more afraid and pondering to leave the market, I'd have a wild guess: The market may take a huge hit on Monday morning, down more than 20% (from here) with all those folks selling. And that may be the bottom then.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Ocean77 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 pm Seeing posts like these, with people spending the weekend watching the news, getting more and more afraid and pondering to leave the market, I'd have a wild guess: The market may take a huge hit on Monday morning, down more than 20% (from here) with all those folks selling. And that may be the bottom then.
You may be right. I'm armed and ready with my usual 25 shares of VOO purchase. I'll make a purchase at near the bottom of the market someday. :beer

EDIT: to add 'near the'. I'm not clairvoyant.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by the way »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?
The math is pretty easy on this one. If you think the SP500 will go from 2300 to 6900, then your holdings will triple. E.g. 500k becomes 1.5m.

But if you sell at 2250 and buy back at 2500, you'll have 10% fewer shares. So your 500k becomes 1.35m, ie 150k less.

In your OP you proposed that you would buy back lower than you sold. Of course, this produces a positive net. You just have to time it right. :wink:
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by averagedude »

I bet there is an investor somewhere who sold out at the bottom in 2008, and bought back in a couple of months ago because they just couldn't stand seeing the market reach all time highs again. I actually know 2 people who sold out near the bottom during the financial crisis, and never bought stocks again. Selling is easy, but buying back in is hard, especially for people who are fearful. Mr. Market always gives you a reason to be fearful.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by CobraKai »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:44 pm Also as mentioned I'm 36 and a Millennial, I was not in the market in 2008 because I just didn't have enough to be saving/investing at that time. But I will tell you older investors that a lot (A LOT) of people in my Generation are freaking out right now. We have experienced a very long Bull Market and never in our lifetimes have we seen something like this.

A lot of us (me included) are scared as heck right now. So I'm being honest with you guys, I'm scared, very scared. I just seen my portfolio in the S&P 500 go from $171,000 to $118,000 in a month......a month! I've been drinking a little much too. Just being honest here. But thanks everyone for commenting here, I really appreciated it.
You weren't in the workforce in 2008?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ocean77 »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 pm
Ocean77 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 pm Seeing posts like these, with people spending the weekend watching the news, getting more and more afraid and pondering to leave the market, I'd have a wild guess: The market may take a huge hit on Monday morning, down more than 20% (from here) with all those folks selling. And that may be the bottom then.
You may be right. I'm armed and ready with my usual 25 shares of VOO purchase. I'll make a purchase at near the bottom of the market someday. :beer

EDIT: to add 'near the'. I'm not clairvoyant.
Same here. :sharebeer
Also, our annual rebalance day is coming up. We once selected my wife's birthday for this, which happens to be in about one week. It will be a "fun" rebalance this time around.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by CobraKai »

cogito wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:04 pm You may be right and you may be wrong, but you are gambling. Neither you nor I have the ability to know what "The Stock Market" will do next week, because there is too much information for any one person to know and understand. If you think you can, you're wrong, even if you make the right bet.
You got to know when to hold 'em,
Know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away,
And know when to run.
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd »

OP should get out of the market.

He's clearly too frazzled to stay the course if/when things drop further.

Maybe he'll never get back in.

But he'll feel better and maybe learn something.

Plus, watching this collective group therapy session is just a waste of the combined energy of the community.

Fish or cut bait, OP.

We've lead you to the water, but we can't make you drink.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by tomwood »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.
If you’re reading publicity available information, isn’t that info already baked into the current market price?
(Anyone can answer)
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by CobraKai »

Ocean77 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 pm Seeing posts like these, with people spending the weekend watching the news, getting more and more afraid and pondering to leave the market, I'd have a wild guess: The market may take a huge hit on Monday morning, down more than 20% (from here) with all those folks selling. And that may be the bottom then.
Sounds like a good time to put in a buy order.
Hemispheres
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Hemispheres »

How about this market timing strategy:

1. Sell everything on Jan 1st of a Presidential Election year
2. Buy 100% on Jan 1st of the next year

It's not strictly "market timing" in that you're not trying to pick tops and/or bottoms, you're just mechanically buying and selling based on known external factors.

I wonder how this strategy would have performed compared to straight buy-and-hold since, say, 1998.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd »

Hemispheres wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:05 am How about this market timing strategy:

1. Sell everything on Jan 1st of a Presidential Election year
2. Buy 100% on Jan 1st of the next year

It's not strictly "market timing" in that you're not trying to pick tops and/or bottoms, you're just mechanically buying and selling based on known external factors.

I wonder how this strategy would have performed compared to straight buy-and-hold since, say, 1998.
So you great scheme is to be out of the market 1 year out of 4?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by mrspock »

retired@50 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:11 pm
saintsfan342000 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:09 pm
xraygoggles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:01 pm I've seen so many posts recently of people "not market timing" but just selling their equities for cash.
It is really remarkable. People know market timing is a losing game, so rather than just admit that's what they're doing, they craft some circuitous argument about how what they're doing is something more intelligent than reactionary timing. It's super entertaining.
+1
It IS super entertaining. Like a kid caught in the cookie jar.

Regards,
When the market is back at 3300, I'm going to make a wall paper out of these posts and put it up in my office. The next time the market tanks, I'll just read all these.

The fairytales people are telling themselves.... mind blowing. Great way to lose a lot of money, at least I know who's on the other side of my buy orders...
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm
siriusblack wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:41 pm It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct?

The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try:

I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future.
Please explain. DOW is at 19000 as of yesterday. States are shutting down. Sectors are shutting down. Not having a slow down of sales, but shutting down.

Can you please explain how I'm making a bad decision in this regard by trying to stop the losses from riding the market all the way down to DOW 15000 or 17000 or worse?
You seem to think the market is a backward looking entity rather than a forward looking one. The market does it’s best to price in all expected future news and then risk adjusts that news to determine today’s appropriate price. The market knows what you know (and likely more) in regards to the virus and shutdown. It’ll react positively if the news is more favorable than the outcome currently being priced in or more negatively if worse than what is currently priced in. It won’t simply just continue to get worse because the shutdown continues as that is already known.

Based on your posts, my guess is there is a high percentage likelihood that you’ll mess this up.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by goodoboy »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:59 pm My point is that your reasoning for why you think it’ll go lower is beyond deeply flawed. The market WILL rebound before the economy does. That’s how it works. So how do you know the market doesn’t have a worse situation priced in then will seem likely next month, week, or even tomorrow?
Thank you MotoTrojan for mentioning that part. It is very true. Mentally we think bad, but the market is up two weeks in a roll by +20%, then what will you do do?

Exiting now is too late anyway
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?

No, I can't perfectly predict the markets and I'm not trying to time the market, if I was trying to time the market I would have jumped out in February. I actually put $10,000 MORE IN the markets on March 2nd.

But I had no idea there was a Great Shutdown coming. No idea. That is what's tanking the markets and as more states get added to The Great Shutdown list, it's going to tank further. I don't think that's me timing the market, it's me clearly seeing a major market downturn in the making and it's way ride all the way down and wait longer to ride back up? Why? Please explain that.
There could me an already developed medicine that is found to effectively fight the virus and the market could be up 25% next week. You’re acting as if the future is determined when it is not. If it was known that the market was going to fall to 17,000 (like you’re saying it is as one of your examples) then the market would’ve already fallen to that level.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd »

mrspock wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:12 am The fairytales people are telling themselves.... mind blowing.
Group therapy is the new Bogleheads.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:28 pm Guys I respect all of your opinions. But it's just clear that all you are going to do is keep spitting back the theory to me and I keep telling you that I understand the theory. On March 2nd, I put $10,000 more into the market.

But we are going through a Great Shutdown. This hasn't happened in 100 years. Nothing like this has happened in 100 years. This is nothing anywhere close to the 2008 situation.

But everybody on here is just spitting back theory to me instead of analyzing this unique and individualized situation for what it is, our version of The Great Depression. Nobody here has invested during The Great Depression.

We don't know what is going to happen and I don't pretend to know either. All we can do is take a guess. When you decide to stay in at this level, you are "buying in" at the daily trading price (whatever that amount is).

So I'm taking my guess that this is going to tank a lot further, a LOT further, so I'm pulling out now and will get back in later. I'm sorry, I know you guys might not see me as someone worthy of taking investment advice from going forward, but I really don't think you guys are understanding that nothing like this has happened in the last 100 years. This is not 2008. This is not a Recession. This is not a bad business cycle. This is likely Great Depression levels here. I'm sorry I don't think you guys are seeing it that way. You are seeing this as a Bad Recession and if it was, then you are correct, stay the course! This is not just a Bad Recession.
Let me ask you a simple question. What will you do if the market goes up 10% next week, then 10% the following week, then 10% the week after that? When will you buy? Or will you wait until it hits 2000 or 1700 to buy?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:28 pm Guys I respect all of your opinions. But it's just clear that all you are going to do is keep spitting back the theory to me and I keep telling you that I understand the theory. On March 2nd, I put $10,000 more into the market.

But we are going through a Great Shutdown. This hasn't happened in 100 years. Nothing like this has happened in 100 years. This is nothing anywhere close to the 2008 situation.

But everybody on here is just spitting back theory to me instead of analyzing this unique and individualized situation for what it is, our version of The Great Depression. Nobody here has invested during The Great Depression.

We don't know what is going to happen and I don't pretend to know either. All we can do is take a guess. When you decide to stay in at this level, you are "buying in" at the daily trading price (whatever that amount is).

So I'm taking my guess that this is going to tank a lot further, a LOT further, so I'm pulling out now and will get back in later. I'm sorry, I know you guys might not see me as someone worthy of taking investment advice from going forward, but I really don't think you guys are understanding that nothing like this has happened in the last 100 years. This is not 2008. This is not a Recession. This is not a bad business cycle. This is likely Great Depression levels here. I'm sorry I don't think you guys are seeing it that way. You are seeing this as a Bad Recession and if it was, then you are correct, stay the course! This is not just a Bad Recession.
Let me ask you a simple question. What will you do if the market goes up 10% next week, then 10% the following week, then 10% the week after that? When will you buy? Or will you wait until it hits 2000 or 1700 to buy?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by goodoboy »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:48 pm
Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm
petulant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:16 pm You might be buying back in at S&P 2500.
And that's fine! That's fine, I just missed that 10% gain, it's fine. I'll buy and hold going forward as I still have 25 years until retirement. So when the market returns back to the January/February 2020 peak, I would have already been in there and would have made my monies back and be setup for the market going forward.
As long as you understand you have just as much probability of getting an irreversible loss (no, you won't make it back when we return to the 2020 peak as stated above) or a gain, then go for it.

I may suggest you put your plan in writing before you press the sell button. When will you get back in? June no matter what? What if the S&P500 is at 2500 before that? 2700? 2900?

If we hit 2750 a week after you sell, will you give up, buy back in, and tell us we were right? Or will you be extra emboldened that it must go down because the shutdown is terrible, 50,000 US people have died, etc...? Then next thing you know it is at 3000, what do you do now?

Are you starting to see how you could lose a lot more than 10% without a plan? Even if your plan says to buy if the market gets more than 10% over the selling point, it may move so fast (overnight even) that you end up at 15 or 20%.
MotoTrojan,

Good logical reasoning here.

Also, lets add in the stress and waste of time factor the OP will have to experience as well versus the goodoboy like me who stayed the course and sleep 6-8 hours day not caring about what the market is doing.

Trust me, I have thought about exiting. But I am 40 years old, I have time on my side for now.

Also, if I exit, I have no clue on earth when to re-enter.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Paul78 »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:16 pm
dwickenh wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:11 pm
Dan
But Dan, has any of you on this board been through a situation like this before? The last time the country had something like this was 100 years ago. Again, please hear me out. Hear me out. I'm not doing this based on a recession, or a bad cycle, or a news cycle gone wrong, you know like the things we've had to deal with over the last 75 years or so.

This is Great Depression like issues here. Don't you think so? Has anybody posting on this board went through that before? I don't think the stock market is adding in how bad this is going to get yet. That's my point and it's like you guys are just spitting back textbook theories back to me and not at all discussing what is going on out here right now.
Well then why not DOW 3000? I mean if this is like the great depression why won't it go down 90%?

You don't know when the bottom is and I don't either. If you were smarter abt this than the market you would have sold weeks ago. What if we are at the bottom now and the market goes up 1,000 instantly after you sell? Do you buy back in at DOW 20,000? Do you wait for it to get back to 19,000 what if it doesn't? What if it basically stays the same and then jumps back up to 25,000-27,000 before the end of the year? When do you jump back in?
Last edited by Paul78 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB »

OP - you keep acting like even if things go against you it’s not a big deal as you have time to recover. If that’s true, why is it a big deal if you lose more now?

Let me give you an example of this backfiring on you

You have $118k in the market right now - if that grows at 8% over the next 35 years you have $1.74 million

Let’s say the market shoots up 20% before you buy back in.

At the end of 35 years you now have $1.45 million

So what seems like a small amount now could be $300k down the road
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Prahasaurus »

I think this is a great learning experience for you, and for probably for a lot of us. It's great you posted here, and great you are doing this type of analysis. I've been through bear markets before, they all seem different, perhaps this time it really is different? We just don't know.

You are 36, which is very young. The economy will be down for a while, maybe weeks, months, or even 1-2 years. But it will almost certainly recover. You have about 30 more years to contribute to your portfolio. 30 years!!! I think you need to find simple, straightforward investments and allocation levels that matches your risk aversion, and then just please forget about it. Focus on your health, your family, whatever. As you get older, modify accordingly. Just basic Bogleheads 101.

I'm incredibly pessimistic about the coming weeks and months, but I'm still optimistic about the long term. I'm in my 50's, however, so not as much scope to recover if I make bad decisions now. You have 30 years, that's so much time!

Good luck.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by onourway »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm
If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
Well, others have pointed out with math how much getting back in at 2500 would cost you over the long run. That’s one point.

Another point is, what are you planning to do with your new investment money while you wait this out on the sidelines? Does all that go into cash as well? If not, why are you ok putting new money in that might lose value, but not leave the money you’d already contributed in there? That makes no sense. And the best way to make great gains in the future is to continue buying while the market is down - at age 36 you should be putting every dollar you can spare into the market right now!

Over the long run, I find it much much easier to just put my investments on auto-pilot and invest at a regular interval every month and ride the valuation waves up and down never paying too much attention to a specific value (in fact, I have no idea what my portfolio peaked at over the last year because I only look at total values once per year!). This is much easier than trying to make all of these individual decisions about whether to be in the market or out of it, whether to invest new money or not - what should I be investing in? Should I get out now? When do I get back in?? I made one decision at the beginning of my investing career 20 years ago and haven’t had to think much about it again.

As to your last point - yes, OF COURSE you could miss a major up day right now. The market KNOWS that things look terrible right now. All it takes is one tiny whiff of positive news and the market could easily soar 10% in a single day - we’ve already seen this in the past few weeks - so if you are asking this question and did not notice this has happened exactly in the way you think it won’t - in just the past few weeks - that should be a major alarm to you that this is far more difficult than you think!
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by HanSolo »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
Okay now let me provide an answer.

My answer is that your strategy statement is so vague, it's a waste of time to try to evaluate its merits. "Jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over"...? What does that mean? At what S&P value? Or on what date? Or after reading what news headline? Come on, be more specific.

For example, if you say "I'll sell at 2300, and get back into fully-invested at either 1900 or 2400, whichever comes first." Now that's unambiguous. But your statements are so vague, all it communicates is that you have no idea what you're going to do or when. For all you know, the market might already have gone back to 2800 *before* the Great Shutdown is "over". You can assume that's not true, but you haven't estimated the cost of your assumptions being wrong. Until you've done that, you have no plan.

After you get more specific, then you should identify the scenarios where your strategy will be worse for you than doing nothing, admit that those scenarios are possible, and accept that you're willing to take that risk.

For example, the above-mentioned strategy basically fails if you get back in at 2400, then the market crashes to 800 and never recovers to its old highs during your lifetime. If you think that's impossible, see Japan (Nikkei index).

And the other way your strategy could fail is if you set your strategy and don't follow it. If you buy in at 1900, and/or "the great shutdown is over", then there's a turn for the worse and the market nosedives, and you panic-sell at 1500 at exactly the market bottom, then begrudgingly get back in at 1900, then you've lost again.

Not having a specific strategy is already bad enough. And based on your comments so far, it's unclear that you're the type of person who'd stick to your strategy even if you had one. Nothing personal.

That being said, I wish you luck. In the meantime, I may be the person on the other side of your trades, so thanks!
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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:26 pm
nps wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:12 pm I must have missed the "military mandated shutdown"? Are you talking about the United States?
Yes I was talking about the US and yes, there isn't currently one or any discussion of one. I am trying to hammer the point in to the OP that things can get worse economically or with the virus, but as long as the situation is trending better than the (already grim) expectation, then equity markets can bottom and start to rise steadily, even if unemployment and deaths are still rising.

Military mandated shutdown is an extreme option which someone like the OP may view as a guaranteed stock-market drop, but it can also indicate that the administration is taking things extra serious and is willing to be more aggressive now, in hopes of reducing the overall economic impact (shorter duration). Bill Ackman recently said the same thing, that equity markets would "soar" if we all just stayed inside for 30 days.
I agree with the rest of your points but military mandated shutdown would violate the principle of civilian control of the military. Countries that don't have that system are usually termed military dictatorships. Not sure if that's what you meant, even an administration directed national shutdown would be far less extreme.
Ocean77 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 pm Seeing posts like these, with people spending the weekend watching the news, getting more and more afraid and pondering to leave the market, I'd have a wild guess: The market may take a huge hit on Monday morning, down more than 20% (from here) with all those folks selling. And that may be the bottom then.
Fortunately it can't drop more than 20% from here on Monday alone! But if you include Tuesday we could get there. Hopefully not.
revhappy
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by revhappy »

OP, the Dow Jones has already moved from 30k to 19k, more than 36% fall. Now 19k to 15k sounds big i.e another 20% fall from here. But you should look at 30k as the base. From 30k to 15k, is only another 15% fall. You have already experienced the worst and now as the index falls more and more, the incremental fall is only marginal. Provided you dont rebalance aggressively.
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