Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

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Ambitious994
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Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown.

I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.

- As a result, stocks are going to roller coaster ride all the way to DOW 15,000 in my opinion (or lower).

- I have $55,000 to recover (portion of principal and growth) in order to get back to the amount my equity investments were at the peak in January 2020. I have a long time horizon (25 years) to get the recovery back, but I don't see why I should stay in here and ride the market all the way down as now that $55,000 amount balloons to $70,000 or $75,000.

- So my strategy here is to move the monies to the side, let The Great Shutdown end, then get back in the market later.

- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not. I'm not trying to perfectly get out and get back in perfectly at the bottom, I don't know what the bottom is on this but I am predicting it's going to be way lower than DOW 19000 as of yesterday.

- So I made the move to move the monies out of equities and off to the side for now, until The Great Shutdown is over. I'll move the monies back in later in the year. Can I miss some gains with this? Yes. For example, DOW can ride down to 15,000 and spike to 17,000 and I miss it that portion. I get it. But by not having rode down to 15,000 I can afford to miss said gains and get back in around 17,000 in this example.

Again, I know this looks like timing the market, but there's no way with The Great Shutdown that stocks aren't about to tank lower. There's just no way.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Good luck. Terrible plan. Read the other 1000 posts to understand why.
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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps »

That's not rebalancing
iljets10
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by iljets10 »

So if you’re rebalancing, your new allocation is 0% stocks permanently?
saintsfan342000
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by saintsfan342000 »

Thanks for sharing.

You've already proven to be kinda lousy at market timing since you didn't foresee the drop we've already suffered. And you're selling low. And you're letting news reports, which are written with incomplete and rapidly-evolving information, dictate your investment decisions.

I'd also like to remind you of something you wrote recently in a different thread:
Ambitious994 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:36 pm If you are invested in a well diversified index fund like the S&P 500 and you have a long time horizon, then you have nothing to worry about. If you have a short time horizon and/or you aren't invested in a sound equity investment, then yes there should be some level of concern.
For those reasons, I advise against your course of action, but wish you luck nonetheless.
Last edited by saintsfan342000 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Already impartial now
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BigWave Dave
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BigWave Dave »

How will you know when to get back in.I lost over 500k im 59 I don't need the money for 4 or 5 yrs. Stay the course
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

Guys I'm not letting the day to day news cycle affect my decisions.

We have entire States shutting down and going to shelter in place situations. We have entire sectors shutting down. I'm not talking about a slow down of business or a recession, I'm talking about a complete and utter shut down.

I don't believe in timing the market, I don't. I don't at all. But it's clear as day stocks are about to seriously tank and I don't see the purpose of riding the market all the way down? Will I miss some gains on the way up, yes, but because I didn't ride all the way down my $55,000 recovery will be back quicker.

But you all are 100% right in theory, trust me, but The Great Shutdown is again, shutting down the economy. Guys come on, this is different. This is not 2008 when we just had a credit market problem.
Mr.Wu
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Mr.Wu »

Be greedy when others are fearful.
siriusblack
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by siriusblack »

It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct?

The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try:

I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

BigWave Dave wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:36 pm How will you know when to get back in.I lost over 500k im 59 I don't need the money for 4 or 5 yrs. Stay the course
Buddy I agree with you, but again we have entire States shutting down. I think we are headed to DOW 15000 or worse. I think it's going to ride down until The Great Shutdown is over. When The Great Shutdown is over it will start to come back up. In terms of Corona, we aren't getting a vaccine for that for 12 to 18 months. I think the main issue with stocks right now is the economic impact from The Great Shutdown and said shutdowns are going to continue until June give or take.
Silk McCue
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Re: Guys I Panicked and Sold thinking I can time the Market

Post by Silk McCue »

I’m glad you got that off your chest. You sure as heck didn’t rebalance.

You panicked and sold.

Cheers
Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

siriusblack wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:41 pm It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct?

The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try:

I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future.
Please explain. DOW is at 19000 as of yesterday. States are shutting down. Sectors are shutting down. Not having a slow down of sales, but shutting down.

Can you please explain how I'm making a bad decision in this regard by trying to stop the losses from riding the market all the way down to DOW 15000 or 17000 or worse?
jjface
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jjface »

Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come. Sure it might drop another 20% if things get a lot worse. But it may not if the actions taken habe an impact.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.

And lets all enjoy some extra quality family time at home. People need that.
Last edited by jjface on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:51 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:39 pm I don't believe in timing the market, I don't. I don't at all.
I would encourage you to look at the definitions of rebalancing and market timing. I don't think you understand them.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:43 pm
BigWave Dave wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:36 pm How will you know when to get back in.I lost over 500k im 59 I don't need the money for 4 or 5 yrs. Stay the course
Buddy I agree with you, but again we have entire States shutting down. I think we are headed to DOW 15000 or worse. I think it's going to ride down until The Great Shutdown is over. When The Great Shutdown is over it will start to come back up. In terms of Corona, we aren't getting a vaccine for that for 12 to 18 months. I think the main issue with stocks right now is the economic impact from The Great Shutdown and said shutdowns are going to continue until June give or take.
Stocks are forward looking. The virus can continue to spread and people can die, but if clarity on the future increases then the market will rebound. The market doesn’t simply track the economy, it tracks the future economy. Your analysis is simply that things will get worse economically and nobody denies that (even bulls), but that has nothing to do with equity markets.

You have a reckless disconnect in understanding the interaction of markets and economic health.
Last edited by MotoTrojan on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
donaldfair71
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by donaldfair71 »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm
siriusblack wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:41 pm It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct?

The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try:

I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future.
Please explain. DOW is at 19000 as of yesterday. States are shutting down. Sectors are shutting down. Not having a slow down of sales, but shutting down.

Can you please explain how I'm making a bad decision in this regard by trying to stop the losses from riding the market all the way down to DOW 15000 or 17000 or worse?
The market has priced all of this into that 19000 price.

It could go to 10000. It could go to 15000. But the risk is now priced in.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?

No, I can't perfectly predict the markets and I'm not trying to time the market, if I was trying to time the market I would have jumped out in February. I actually put $10,000 MORE IN the markets on March 2nd.

But I had no idea there was a Great Shutdown coming. No idea. That is what's tanking the markets and as more states get added to The Great Shutdown list, it's going to tank further. I don't think that's me timing the market, it's me clearly seeing a major market downturn in the making and it's way ride all the way down and wait longer to ride back up? Why? Please explain that.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?

No, I can't perfectly predict the markets and I'm not trying to time the market, if I was trying to time the market I would have jumped out in February. I actually put $10,000 MORE IN the markets on March 2nd.

But I had no idea there was a Great Shutdown coming. No idea. That is what's tanking the markets and as more states get added to The Great Shutdown list, it's going to tank further. I don't think that's me timing the market, it's me clearly seeing a major market downturn in the making and it's way ride all the way down and wait longer to ride back up? Why? Please explain that.
You need read my last post very, very carefully. You are way off base here.
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BogleFanGal
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BogleFanGal »

who ARE all these posters suddenly joining the boards to announce that the world as we know it is crashing and to justify their sellout strategy? They don't seem to be seeking advice. Just wondering why they all choose a fairly conservative BH board steeped in long-term AA strategies to discuss this when there are a million financial chat groups and forums with more like-minded members?
Last edited by BogleFanGal on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FlyerJack
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by FlyerJack »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:39 pm I don't believe in timing the market, I don't. I don't at all. ...

But you all are 100% right in theory, trust me, but The Great Shutdown is again, shutting down the economy. Guys come on, this is different.
Selling low, “this time it’s different,” and 25 years till retirement??? OP, no offense, but it sounds like you’re needlessly taking action based on fear. I can understand fear for people who actually need liquid money soon, but I’d urge you to get back into equities soon and then “don’t do something, stand there!” Put your investments on auto-pilot and quit checking your balance.
I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not.
:oops: This is textbook market timing, don’t fool yourself.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by rascott »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?

No, I can't perfectly predict the markets and I'm not trying to time the market, if I was trying to time the market I would have jumped out in February. I actually put $10,000 MORE IN the markets on March 2nd.

But I had no idea there was a Great Shutdown coming. No idea. That is what's tanking the markets and as more states get added to The Great Shutdown list, it's going to tank further. I don't think that's me timing the market, it's me clearly seeing a major market downturn in the making and it's way ride all the way down and wait longer to ride back up? Why? Please explain that.

The market will bottom and start back up well ahead of the end of the bad news. That's the way it works.

Why not short the market if you are so sure it will be at 1700 in June?
Last edited by rascott on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:51 pm
You need read my last post very, very carefully. You are way off base here.
I re-read it. Now please answer my question.

S&P is 2300 as of yesterday and I sell.

If i buy back at S&P 2000 or 1700 in let's say June, due to The Great Shutdown continuing to tank the markets, what's wrong with that?

Or, are you saying that the S&P 500 won't go lower than this in your opinion? Because if so, I don't think that's correct as everything is shutting down.

And yes, maybe I am timing the market and maybe we can't call this a rebalance. Maybe we can just call it a panic sell. Fine. But I just don't see how I'm off base here because again, this isn't a recession or a news cycle gone wrong. This is potentially The Great Depression we could be looking at here.
jjface
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jjface »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm
jjface wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:45 pm Lets put things into perspective rather than add to the panic. States are not entirely shut down. You can still go to the grocery store and things like that. Restrictions won't last forever. A very small percentage of people die from this. Not unlike the flu though a bit worse. We still have a chance to contain it unlike the flu hence why these restrictions are in place. Not because we are all going to die. It is not the black death people.

Still chances are it will continue for several months and business will be impacted. Countries like the UK have closed schools for the rest of the school year so are already planning for longer term.

But I will say you are too late to market time. You missed the boat and people who miss the boat make the biggest mistakes and will lose wealth. We are already 35% down and the market knows what you know and has priced in much of what is to come.

Best strategy is to keep ploughing in new money as normal and buy those cheap stocks. Tax loss harvest, even increase equity allocation if you can stomach the risk. Selling may just lock in losses. We've seen daily movements of 10% and good news eg a vaccine or a significant drop in cases could see rapid recovery imo.
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?

No, I can't perfectly predict the markets and I'm not trying to time the market, if I was trying to time the market I would have jumped out in February. I actually put $10,000 MORE IN the markets on March 2nd.

But I had no idea there was a Great Shutdown coming. No idea. That is what's tanking the markets and as more states get added to The Great Shutdown list, it's going to tank further. I don't think that's me timing the market, it's me clearly seeing a major market downturn in the making and it's way ride all the way down and wait longer to ride back up? Why? Please explain that.
The market already thinks this will last months and has priced it in. You are too late to act. That is what is wrong with your logic.

We may see further drops if unexpected things occur. If the stimulus packages are not as good as expected, if cases continue to rise despite measures taken, if another country has a major outbreak like Italy etc. Or the opposite may happen if we get some good news.
Last edited by jjface on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JBTX
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by JBTX »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:43 pm
BigWave Dave wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:36 pm How will you know when to get back in.I lost over 500k im 59 I don't need the money for 4 or 5 yrs. Stay the course
Buddy I agree with you, but again we have entire States shutting down. I think we are headed to DOW 15000 or worse. I think it's going to ride down until The Great Shutdown is over. When The Great Shutdown is over it will start to come back up. In terms of Corona, we aren't getting a vaccine for that for 12 to 18 months. I think the main issue with stocks right now is the economic impact from The Great Shutdown and said shutdowns are going to continue until June give or take.
All due respect, it is investors such as yourself that cause the market to tank when things are grim and expand when things are good. Buy high sell low. If it weren't for the buy high sell low crowd the market would be more stable.

While we didn't know this was coming, the prospect of a pandemic was not a secret, and the fact that the economy had expanded for 10+ years was not a secret. The fact that PES were comparatively high is not a secret and the fact that debt levels were high and interest rates were low wasn't a secret. So the fact that this is happening shouldn't be a surprise.

You may turn out to be right, but you need to rethink your risk tolerance and asset allocation accordingly. I am incrementally buying and will buy more if it decreases more.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

rascott wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:54 pm
The market will bottom and start back up well ahead of the end of the bad news. That's the way it works.
Okay and I'll get back in once it starts. I'll miss a day or two, that's fine. But because I didn't ride all the way down, I can miss a day or two of gains and still be okay. That's my point here. What's wrong with that?
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Will do good
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Will do good »

If that's your decision, good luck to you.
tivattom
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by tivattom »

Thank you for selling your shares to me so cheaply. Would you like to panic sell your house to me too? Ive got super safe cash for you!
MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:51 pm
You need read my last post very, very carefully. You are way off base here.
I re-read it. Now please answer my question.

S&P is 2300 as of yesterday and I sell.

If i buy back at S&P 2000 or 1700 in let's say June, due to The Great Shutdown continuing to tank the markets, what's wrong with that?

Or, are you saying that the S&P 500 won't go lower than this in your opinion? Because if so, I don't think that's correct as everything is shutting down.
I don’t know if it’ll go lower and neither do you. What I am saying is that the shutdown continuing til May, June, or July won’t mean the market goes down further. Maybe the market had August priced in so if it looks to be on track for July by next month it sky rockets 20%.

If the S&P is at 1700 or 2000 in June then your plan is great. My point is that your reasoning for why you think it’ll go lower is beyond deeply flawed. The market WILL rebound before the economy does. That’s how it works. So how do you know the market doesn’t have a worse situation priced in then will seem likely next month, week, or even tomorrow?
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

JBTX wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:55 pm All due respect, it is investors such as yourself that cause the market to tank when things are grim and expand when things are good. Buy high sell low. If it weren't for the buy high sell low crowd the market would be more stable.

While we didn't know this was coming, the prospect of a pandemic was not a secret, and the fact that the economy had expanded for 10+ years was not a secret. The fact that PES were comparatively high is not a secret and the fact that debt levels were high and interest rates were low wasn't a secret. So the fact that this is happening shouldn't be a surprise.

You may turn out to be right, but you need to rethink your risk tolerance and asset allocation accordingly. I am incrementally buying and will buy more if it decreases more.
I wish you guys would just answer my questions. I understand the theory, I get that I shouldn't in theory be doing this. I get it. You don't have to keep repeating that over and over.

I'm looking at The Great Shutdown. I'm looking at entire States not operating. And I'm looking at a $55,000 loss right now. Why ride that down to a $75,000 loss for when I can keep it at $55,000 and when The Great Shutdown is over, start the ride back up?

This is not a normal situation and you guys know that. This is not a normal recession like 2008 or a new cycle gone wrong.

Can we please just answer my questions and stop just spitting out the theory? I get the theory. I get the theory.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:56 pm
rascott wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:54 pm
The market will bottom and start back up well ahead of the end of the bad news. That's the way it works.
Okay and I'll get back in once it starts. I'll miss a day or two, that's fine. But because I didn't ride all the way down, I can miss a day or two of gains and still be okay. That's my point here. What's wrong with that?
Good luck.
Pikel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Pikel »

Any event that causes a severe market pullback is inexplicable while it's happening.

I am not sure what people were expecting or envisioning when they considered their risk tolerance for a 50% or more crash.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by retired@50 »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:50 pm
Okay so here's my question. I sell now at S&P 2300, okay?

It's now June and Great Shutdown is over.

I buy back in let's say in late June, at S&P 2000 or 1700.

What's wrong with that?
What's wrong with that?

You'd only need to be away from your computer (stock trading platform) for a short time and the market could recover while you're not looking.

Haven't you noticed the wild swings in the market both up and down? With this type of volatility, who can say when the recovery will be, and how quickly it will arrive.

Regards,
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.
xraygoggles
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by xraygoggles »

Is this the Bogleheads forum or bizarro world?

I've seen so many posts recently of people "not market timing" but just selling their equities for cash. Bear markets are when your true asset allocation comes out.

Selling your equities when they are down 35% is not rebalancing or market timing, unless you plan on being 0% equities going forward.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jjface »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:56 pm
rascott wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:54 pm
The market will bottom and start back up well ahead of the end of the bad news. That's the way it works.
Okay and I'll get back in once it starts. I'll miss a day or two, that's fine. But because I didn't ride all the way down, I can miss a day or two of gains and still be okay. That's my point here. What's wrong with that?
We've seen 10% swings already. 2-3 good days missed and your wealth is battered. You may even be one of those who sees it rise 20%+ and can't buy back as your emotions can't get past locking in losses or you may feel like the "great shutdown" isn't over. Then it rises even more and you are screwed big time as happened to lots after 2008.

Thing is no one can say what you suggest won't work out. A lot is down to chance to be frank especially as your logic to do it is flawed since the market probably has already priced in what you say. But you are making a risky move that may backfire just as much as pay off.
Last edited by jjface on Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:59 pm
I don’t know if it’ll go lower and neither do you. What I am saying is that the shutdown continuing til May, June, or July won’t mean the market goes down further. Maybe the market had August priced in so if it looks to be on track for July by next month it sky rockets 20%.

If the S&P is at 1700 or 2000 in June then your plan is great. My point is that your reasoning for why you think it’ll go lower is beyond deeply flawed. The market WILL rebound before the economy does. That’s how it works. So how do you know the market doesn’t have a worse situation priced in then will seem likely next month, week, or even tomorrow?
Okay so firstly, thank you for actually addressing my question.

So now, here's my thinking on this. If the market rebounds before the economy then great, I still have a 25 year time horizon. I can still get back in the market and continue to ride it back up to the peak that it was in January/February. I can still do that. That's why I'm not understanding what's the problem with just pulling the monies to the side for a couple of months worse case?

Do you see what I'm saying here?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:59 pm

Can we please just answer my questions and stop just spitting out the theory? I get the theory. I get the theory.
No, with all due respect you obviously don’t. Let me make it clear. We could never go lower than Fridays close again, even if the shutdown lasts months and the unemployment shoots up.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by frugaltigris »

This must have been a difficult decision. Remember that health is far more important than money. If this decision brings you peace good for you. Yes you will likely lose some gains. Are they more important than your present state of mind? No. In future it would be good to have a more conservative portfoilo so that you can rebalance.

Stay the course (but not like a sheep) :-)
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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:02 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:59 pm
I don’t know if it’ll go lower and neither do you. What I am saying is that the shutdown continuing til May, June, or July won’t mean the market goes down further. Maybe the market had August priced in so if it looks to be on track for July by next month it sky rockets 20%.

If the S&P is at 1700 or 2000 in June then your plan is great. My point is that your reasoning for why you think it’ll go lower is beyond deeply flawed. The market WILL rebound before the economy does. That’s how it works. So how do you know the market doesn’t have a worse situation priced in then will seem likely next month, week, or even tomorrow?
Okay so firstly, thank you for actually addressing my question.

So now, here's my thinking on this. If the market rebounds before the economy then great, I still have a 25 year time horizon. I can still get back in the market and continue to ride it back up to the peak that it was in January/February. I can still do that. That's why I'm not understanding what's the problem with just pulling the monies to the side for a couple of months worse case?

Do you see what I'm saying here?
Let me ask you a question. How sure are you that you can make money from this plan?
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:02 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:59 pm
I don’t know if it’ll go lower and neither do you. What I am saying is that the shutdown continuing til May, June, or July won’t mean the market goes down further. Maybe the market had August priced in so if it looks to be on track for July by next month it sky rockets 20%.

If the S&P is at 1700 or 2000 in June then your plan is great. My point is that your reasoning for why you think it’ll go lower is beyond deeply flawed. The market WILL rebound before the economy does. That’s how it works. So how do you know the market doesn’t have a worse situation priced in then will seem likely next month, week, or even tomorrow?
Okay so firstly, thank you for actually addressing my question.

So now, here's my thinking on this. If the market rebounds before the economy then great, I still have a 25 year time horizon. I can still get back in the market and continue to ride it back up to the peak that it was in January/February. I can still do that. That's why I'm not understanding what's the problem with just pulling the monies to the side for a couple of months worse case?

Do you see what I'm saying here?
If you sell now then no, you aren’t certain to ride it back to the February high. You’ll lose whatever growth occurs before you get back in, and that’ll never recover.
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:03 pm
No, with all due respect you obviously don’t. Let me make it clear. We could never go lower than Fridays close again, even if the shutdown lasts months and the unemployment shoots up.
But do you honestly think that we are done? DOW 19000 is the worse it's going to get? Be honest with me here. I think this is going to bleed down to DOW 15000 to 17000.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by DarkHelmetII »

nps wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:34 pm That's not rebalancing
+1
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Ambitious994 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:05 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:03 pm
No, with all due respect you obviously don’t. Let me make it clear. We could never go lower than Fridays close again, even if the shutdown lasts months and the unemployment shoots up.
But do you honestly think that we are done? DOW 19000 is the worse it's going to get? Be honest with me here. I think this is going to bleed down to DOW 15000 to 17000.
So you think you know better than the rest of the market and are willing to bet your portfolio on it? That’s up to you. I’ll be buying (maybe even your shares).

For it to get worse, expectations have to get worse. Expectations are pretty bad right now.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by saintsfan342000 »

xraygoggles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:01 pm I've seen so many posts recently of people "not market timing" but just selling their equities for cash.
It is really remarkable. People know market timing is a losing game, so rather than just admit that's what they're doing, they craft some circuitous argument about how what they're doing is something more intelligent than reactionary timing. It's super entertaining.
Already impartial now
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Hotshot035 »

The job's report is on Thursday and isn't going to be pretty.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan »

Hotshot035 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:10 pm The job's report is on Thursday and isn't going to be pretty.
Which will not be a surprise to the market.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Prahasaurus »

I disagree the market has priced in what we will see over the next 3-4 weeks. It’s going to get much worse than people realize, and I fear we will be seeing Martial Law in parts of the country soon. The USA did not properly prepare for this, and that will be brutally obvious in a couple of weeks, beginning in NYC.

Your forward looking market was off by 30% not too long ago. I believe it’s still off by 20% now. As in, it’s way too optimistic.

Having said all that, if I were under 35, I wouldn’t care. I’d just keep buying and not worry about it too much. In 30 years this will all be a distant memory. Like the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Asset Allocation: 50% cash (USD), 30% VT, 20% Bitcoin
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by dwickenh »

It won't work the way you think, and if it does, it will only be luck. Then you think you can time the market, why not next time you get that
feeling about the market. You will lose much more than you will gain in the long run. You are in this for the long run, right?

I know how you feel, we all felt that way at one time. We learned from it and are passing along our knowledge/experience to you.
If you choose not to follow our advice, it's your choice.

I wish you the best no matter what you decide,

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett
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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
So you think you know better than the rest of the market
No, I never said that.
MotoTrojan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm ......and are willing to bet your portfolio on it? That’s up to you. I’ll be buying (maybe even your shares).

For it to get worse, expectations have to get worse. Expectations are pretty bad right now.
Expectations are going to get worse. That's what I'm trying to point out here. And I know I'm falling into the timing the market situation, but I'm just not understanding how you guys aren't seeing my point here. I know that I'm not following the built in theories, but I don't think DOW 19000 is the worse. I think it's about to bleed down to DOW 15000 or way way worse.

I don't think the market has priced everything in at all.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by retired@50 »

saintsfan342000 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:09 pm
xraygoggles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:01 pm I've seen so many posts recently of people "not market timing" but just selling their equities for cash.
It is really remarkable. People know market timing is a losing game, so rather than just admit that's what they're doing, they craft some circuitous argument about how what they're doing is something more intelligent than reactionary timing. It's super entertaining.
+1
It IS super entertaining. Like a kid caught in the cookie jar.

Regards,
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by 1789 »

Assuming you have a secure job (which i would never assume of course even if i would be a doctor or government employee, but this is just me) and CASH to survive 1-2 years, the best thing you can do now is to keep buying stock index funds on a weekly basis.
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