I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

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Prahasaurus
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Prahasaurus » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
What is that inner voice saying about the next two weeks, when US hospitals start to resemble a war zone, and France and Spain go down, too?
Asset Allocation: 50% cash (USD), 30% VT, 20% Bitcoin

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SevenBridgesRoad
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by SevenBridgesRoad » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 pm

sergeant wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:43 pm

...OP, next time you absolutely know something is going to happen in the future tell everyone you know, post it on social media, write in to your local paper and wait for everyone to crown you a psychic or charlatan.
Yes, even if you are too busy as you say, take 60 seconds and at least let the rest of us know.
Retired 2018 age 61/Variable Percentage Withdrawal method/One fund: VTINX all accounts/No mortgage,debt/Good enough | "Not using an alarm is one of the great glories of my life." Robert Greene

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by helloeveryone » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:08 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I’m not sure that watching the stand would have helped you know when to jump back into the market though. Don’t overstress it. Like you said you’re 37. It’s not timing the market....it’s time IN the market. You have a good amount of time that you’ll be in the market

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by eldinerocheapo » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:11 am

I wish I had a crystal ball too. But given the mercurial nature of the markets and potential extreme fluctuations in even "all weather" stable funds, each of us needs to decide and test our own level of market risk. It's only then that we know how much risk we're willing to take and still get a good night's sleep.

I plan to be around another 30 years, and investing in the maelstrom of the markets is one of several ways we've decided to build a foundation for retirement. The losses hurt, but no regrets over a lifetime of investing.
"Do, or do not." Yoda

jcar
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by jcar » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:23 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:13 pm
Imagine you are a month in to SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1, or even the mega-deadly 1918 Bird Flu; would you have the same urge to sell it all and wait for a 30% drawdown?
A great observation. I'm retired in the last couple years and I stayed the course feeling something was going to drop big. I also looked to the past and saw the market eventually come back even stronger each time. I do have cash reserves that I believe I will use while dividends reinvest at these low prices. One thing I'm up in the air about is when to rebalance since things changed so quickly. Hang tough!

chevca
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by chevca » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:25 am

A lot of people KNEW the market was going to tank after the 2016 election.... then it didn't.

Those who KNOW when the market will crash are bound to be correct eventually. :happy

Shallowpockets
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Shallowpockets » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:54 am

We were all stupid. We were all looking at market highs. We were all thinking how long could it last. We remained stupid.
We wanted MORE. We wanted more than the highest the market had ever been.
We were greedy.

Except the BHs who had none of that, although it remains to be seen how wise this is. Even though BH saw these out lying signs they did not move either. They were fixed on their dogma.
Maybe work out, but it may take a long long time.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by JakeyLee » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:06 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I've personally predicted six of the last 3 bear markets. Fact is, there will always bear markets. They always come and they always go. So I just stood here... And did nothing. Doing nothing has really served me well over the years. I'm curious to see how many shares this dividend disbursement will buy on Monday.

Your 57 year old self is really going to be proud of you for staying the course.

retired@50
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by retired@50 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:26 am

Clemblack wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:30 pm
retired@50 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:15 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
...
Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!
...
Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
Well, if you admit that you'll never have this clairvoyance again, then you are admitting you wouldn't know when to buy back in IF you had sold.

That's the trouble with trying to time the market, you have to be right at least twice, just to avoid one bear market.

Regards,


I don't agree, but correct me if I'm wrong.

One does not have to be "right at least twice" in order to have made a good decision. You don't have to buy in at the exact bottom. If someone got out of the market at 26,000 and back in at 21,000, then he did better than the guy who held. Doesn't matter if the bottom ends up being 17,000.
The numbers you quote appear to be for the DJIA, which is really only 30 stocks. Most Bogleheads are using a broader index fund like the S&P 500, but your point remains valid. If you sell the S&P index when it's at 3,000 then buy back in later when it's at 2,000 you will likely own more shares than when you sold. However, the unmentioned task while your out of the market is to closely track what's happening to the market and have access to a trading platform when you need to make the buy in. The recent ups and downs in the market have proven that these two milestones may be only days apart, or they could be months or years apart. In the meantime, you've been watching closely, and missing quarterly dividend payments that buy and hold investors have enjoyed. What if the market gains 1,000 points while you're on a camping vacation? The added stress of staring at the market for what could be weeks or months isn't my idea of investing. I prefer to stay invested.

Regards,
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:46 am

As previously stated, there is a different between "knowing" and knowing. Strong hunches often become confused with certain knowledge.

If I had certain knowledge of the immediate direction of any market, you can bet that I would push every cent that I could to take advantage of it. OP, I would guess that you (and almost everyone else here) would do the same--regardless of any perceived Boglehead mantra.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Munir » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:54 am

Prahasaurus wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
What is that inner voice saying about the next two weeks, when US hospitals start to resemble a war zone, and France and Spain go down, too?
My inner voice is saying get out of everything and transfer to US Treasury Money Market fund. I haven't listened totally and made a partial transfer because I'm chicken and better safe than sorry etc etc etc

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by GoldenGoose » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:19 am

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:20 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
You will feel joy soon when you experience the V-Shaped recovery! :moneybag
Joy? Nah, I don't think "joy" is the word. I think "regret" will still be the word if you just get back to break even.

Renzi
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Renzi » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:51 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I did the same and I'm kicking myself as well. I stocked up on supplies, hand sanitizer, masks, food etc. by mid-feb. Went to pull my whole 401k/Roth out of the market and only realized when I was putting in the order that I wouldn't be able to get back into the market for at least 30 days. Figured I would wait a bit just in case and now I'm down 30%. Funny enough now is about the time my 30 days would have elapsed and I would be able to get back into the market. :oops:

Young so I'm not ruined but its rough thinking about that 30% (and the 30 years of market gains it would earn) right now. I've made my bed though so I'm still 100% in equities (outside of EF).

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:47 am

OP here. I've had a couple people ask what my plan was - it was to cash out a significant amount of my equity ETFs and invest instead in ProShares Ultrashort s&p 500, SDS. That's basically the move I understand - buying at ETF. It's easy to lament that I didn't sink 500k into some options but the reality is I never would have done that because I don't understand it well enough.

At this point I feel like the best move is actually to up my DCA into the market - there will be a time in my life where I wish I'd invested everything I had at today's prices I'm sure. That time just might be the late 2020s... who knows!
Last edited by NYD3030 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:48 am

Renzi wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:51 am
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I did the same and I'm kicking myself as well. I stocked up on supplies, hand sanitizer, masks, food etc. by mid-feb. Went to pull my whole 401k/Roth out of the market and only realized when I was putting in the order that I wouldn't be able to get back into the market for at least 30 days. Figured I would wait a bit just in case and now I'm down 30%. Funny enough now is about the time my 30 days would have elapsed and I would be able to get back into the market. :oops:

Young so I'm not ruined but its rough thinking about that 30% (and the 30 years of market gains it would earn) right now. I've made my bed though so I'm still 100% in equities (outside of EF).
You and I are in the exact same boat! My journal entry from February 12th includes a section on how I convinced my wife that we needed to prepare and bought cleaning supplies and two weeks of canned goods at Meijer. I prepared everything but my portfolio! Lesson learned.

Dave55
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Dave55 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:11 pm

Having lived through many booms and busts, I started slowly trimming back equities in 2018 and 2019 from 30/70 to 25/75. My observation was we are about 8-9 years in the business cycle, we are due for an economic contraction and significant market pullback so take some off the table.

Dave

delamer
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by delamer » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:14 pm

FireProof wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:32 pm
delamer wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
At your age, why do you feel that you should have changed your long-term stock allocation due to a short-term market drop?

Or do you think the pandemic is going to permanently change the market?
Well, if he truly knew there would be a drop, he could have sold, then bought back in after the drop. Maybe he wouldn't have timed the bottom perfectly, but still obviously better than riding it out. My dad actually did that, against my advice - sold about 5% below the peak. We'll see when he gets back in, though.
But no one “knowsl if there will be a drop. We only know after-the-fact.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:35 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
Does your IPS tell you to react if there is a global pandemic??? In such case you should kick yourself... BUT if it doesn't then you could re-evaluate your IPS for it's risk elements.

new2bogle
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by new2bogle » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:16 pm

Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:49 pm
knowledge wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm
This has to be balanced against every other time you were absolutely, 100% certain that something was going to happen...and it didn't.
+1.
I always feel like something is going to happen and I am missing out (good or bad). If I don't just stay the course I will go insane!

smectym
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by smectym » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:09 pm

MAandMEMom wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:09 pm
I’m new here and simply read, haven’t amassed a near fortune like some of you and I’m too old to start the BH way now. But even before the virus it seemed like the market was just too good to be true. Someone on another forum thought the magic date would be end of January because of the coming elections and Brexit voting. I decided to move all my funds that were maybe 85/15 in one of my accounts (TIAA) into the guaranteed on January 10. Thankfully I did because my other lifecycle accounts are taking a beating. I’m fortunate to have a defined benefit pension in a solid state when I retire in ten years.
The market has seemed “too good to be true” for years. There were a dozen signals to “get out” in 2019–and the same number in 2018, 2017, etc. There’s this guy David Stockman, he has been railing about the crazy stock market ever since the LAST crisis, Warning us all to get out of “the casino” before it’s too late, predicting an imminent crash. If you read his articles, the points he makes are actually good ones, fairly convincing: he has a case to make, he’s not a dumb guy. But anyone who had listened to him, would have missed out on the biggest bull market in history.

Investors must learn to take the bad with the good. We’ve been feeding at the trough for years, lapping up money that we didn’t really earn and don’t really deserve. It’s been a pleasant ride, courtesy of Bernanke, Yellen and (oops!) Powell. Let’s not be seen complaining now.

WhiteMaxima
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by WhiteMaxima » Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:00 am

I didn't expect this kind of drop. I thought because of travel ban from China will stop the virus spread in the US. Things happened. I am increase my DCA and plan for the future.

bltn
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by bltn » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:22 am

Danzangdc wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:10 pm
Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
This mantra really isn't true. For a market timing move to be successful, you don't have to do anything "exactly." You just have to sell sometime before the bottom. The closer you are, the more differential advantage you get vs. buy and hold. People who do nothing aren't actually doing nothing, they are making a decision each today to be bought into in the market.

I was in the same shoes as the OP, except I pushed the button and cashed out in mid-late February. The virus clearly was doing economic harm and was a real global threat, yet the market was still going up. It made no sense. And when did I buy back in? Today. The market easily could drop another 20-30% on extended bad news about unemployment and ineffective government response. Or maybe a promising cure is announced next week and it shoots up. All I know for sure is I avoided a 30% loss of my retirement funds. That's locked in forever, no matter how "exactly" I timed the bottom of the market.

I'll probably never time the market again, because I usually won't have greater insight than the professionals. But this ONE time, it was staring me in the face that the market was wrong.
You ll time the market again.
Unless you remember the principal of reversion to the mean.

bltn
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by bltn » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:28 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:47 am
OP here. I've had a couple people ask what my plan was - it was to cash out a significant amount of my equity ETFs and invest instead in ProShares Ultrashort s&p 500, SDS. That's basically the move I understand - buying at ETF. It's easy to lament that I didn't sink 500k into some options but the reality is I never would have done that because I don't understand it well enough.

At this point I feel like the best move is actually to up my DCA into the market - there will be a time in my life where I wish I'd invested everything I had at today's prices I'm sure. That time just might be the late 2020s... who knows!
At your age I think DCA into the stock market is the best thing you can do if your EF is sufficient.

SandysDad
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by SandysDad » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:52 am

Why is everyone talking on this thread like it’s too late to sell?

We are only around December 2018 price levels. Do you think we are in better shape now than we were then?

There will be a time to get back in. That time may be upon us soon, but I am pretty confident it is not now.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:16 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
If you were 100% sure why didn't you do anything? Only asking, because you said 100% not 50%, not 90%, 100%. Just...why?

Bogleheads advice works when you aren't 100% sure and know you don't know. If you know you know, you should be doing active trading.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:20 am

Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
Well said.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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Ramjet
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Ramjet » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:38 am

I thought the market was going to drop too

The problem is who knows how much and when?

So I did nothing. I just buy on schedule.
Last edited by Ramjet on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

Chris001122
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Chris001122 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:42 am

I agree with the folks that are saying you actually did the right thing by not selling stocks. I've tried to do this and failed. The key is knowing when to buy back in and that is hard to do. If you wait until averages return to where you sold, you actually did not "gain" anything by selling. Also, there is often some tax implications and maybe fees to buying and selling.

Another factor some have not mentioned is the math of the buying back in. So, let's say you avoid a 30% drop. If you had it all in one mutual fund, then share price might be 100, you sold there, and then 70 at the bottom. You sold at 95, so you avoided the 25% drop. You will tend to use that 95 as the place to buy back in. Again, you won't really gain anything by doing that. Even if you get it perfectly right, you will have a net zero change, even a small loss due to sales fees, commissions, and or taxes.

Another factor, which I have a hard time explaining is that if it goes from 100 to 70 that is a 30% reduction, but if you go from 70 to 100, that is a 30/70 or 42% increase. So getting the right buy-in point is more important that when you sell.
"It's always been a mistake to bet against the United States since 1776." - Warren Buffett

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am

Chris001122 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:42 am
I agree with the folks that are saying you actually did the right thing by not selling stocks. I've tried to do this and failed. The key is knowing when to buy back in and that is hard to do. If you wait until averages return to where you sold, you actually did not "gain" anything by selling. Also, there is often some tax implications and maybe fees to buying and selling.

Another factor some have not mentioned is the math of the buying back in. So, let's say you avoid a 30% drop. If you had it all in one mutual fund, then share price might be 100, you sold there, and then 70 at the bottom. You sold at 95, so you avoided the 25% drop. You will tend to use that 95 as the place to buy back in. Again, you won't really gain anything by doing that. Even if you get it perfectly right, you will have a net zero change, even a small loss due to sales fees, commissions, and or taxes.

Another factor, which I have a hard time explaining is that if it goes from 100 to 70 that is a 30% reduction, but if you go from 70 to 100, that is a 30/70 or 42% increase. So getting the right buy-in point is more important that when you sell.
I don't agree. Buying back at ANY point now during recession would be beneficial.

If he knew THAT he knew 100% not selling was illogical.

If you knew sun will go up tomorrow 100% and would be able to bet against sun "not going up" would you still not do it because people online say you can't time the market?

Boglehead strategy is protection from ignorance, but in rare times some people are not ignorant. In those cases following such strategy would be ignorant.

I made the same mistake. In January I saw exponential growth, realised how bad it will be, warned everyone, bought supplies and everything I predicted came true. Never before had I had such certainty.

But I didn't sell my stocks. Why? Because I listened to bogleheads and thought I'm more ignorant than I actually was. I was taught "learned helplessness" and not selling my stocks in January / February was a really, really dumb move. Why? Because I was also 100% certain of this happening and lockdown proceedings. The only reason I didn't do what was the smart thing was because of dogma. I was really stupid. I regret it. Only consolation I have is that I did not LUMP SUM buy in with cash like many people tried to convince me that it would be right choice. Now I have capital to buy this dip, and am doing so. And yes, I'm buying lower than I would lave with lump sum.
Last edited by Vision on Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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paul e
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by paul e » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:47 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
As a Boglehead, you did just the right thing. In the immortal words of our great founder when speaking of volatility, 'Dont do something; just stand there'.. And you did. He would be proud.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am

paul e wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:47 am
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
As a Boglehead, you did just the right thing. In the immortal words of our great founder when speaking of volatility, 'Dont do something; just stand there'.. And you did. He would be proud.
Just because the majority of people don't understand events does not mean there are like 0.1% (like OP in this case) who perfectly well understood what will happen. Bogle's advice is for general populus, there are exceptions. OP was exception in this case. Bogles advice is protection against ignorance, OP wasn't ignorant. He followed dogma and missed out huge opportunity cost, same mistake I made.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by jharkin » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:55 am

OP:

I watched “The Stand” in high school. Interesting mini series, but absolutely NOT what we are going through.

It’s going to be rough, rougher than anything in our lifetime, but 99% of the world population will survive and life WILL go on. Keep telling yourself that and breathe.

Blue456
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Blue456 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:06 am

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I was worried that this may happen but I wasn't sure.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by 7eight9 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 am

Rats jump off burning ships. The best time to sell was a month ago. Tomorrow might very well be the next best time.

Weekend Wall Street --- https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-i ... all-street
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am

7eight9 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 am
Rats jump off burning ships. The best time to sell was a month ago. Tomorrow might very well be the next best time.

Weekend Wall Street --- https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-i ... all-street
I was 100% sure stock market will go to hell in February.

I'm not 100% sure now. I don't act unless I'm 100% sure.

[ quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

Been following since December and aware of everything. I am in lockdown, I'm not from USA. I'm not selling anything at a loss ever. That is one of my principles. I had ideal opportunity and 100% confidence to sell in February, but did not follow through due to Boglehead dogma, now I still know you are right, but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%.

Reasons for 13% doubt:
- governments will freeze stock market trading
- governments will inject trillions into stocks, businesses and economy to "pump it up"
- people will adapt to online type of work and lifestyle
- cures currently actually exist
- antiviral eventually will be found

In next few months I will be buying this dip with cash reserves in controlled DCA manner.

If this turns worse then great depression then we have problems bigger than stocks to worry about.

My investment time horizon - 32 years.
Last edited by Vision on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by MnD » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am

I thought something like this _might_ happen and likewise with AIDS, Ebola, SARS, MERS, Russian invasion of Ukraine and no doubt dozens of other
worrying things that might have gone really bad globally over the decades (in addition to the ones that really did go bad). That's why I have an IPS versus investing on gut feelings emotions etc. Had I done the latter I'd still be working with a really sucky level of net worth relative to savings rate and worrying day/night about my paycheck.
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:27 am

It says buy when there is blood on the street. There is no blood on the street for now, far from it. And there is potential for real blood on real streets with this crisis.
There is literally blood in streets as of now in Italy, Spain, Germany.

I invest in world stock market not US only.
I thought something like this _might_ happen and likewise with AIDS, Ebola, SARS, MERS, Russian invasion of Ukraine and no doubt dozens of other
There were no lockdowns like with Wuhan with any of those others, so no reason to think that.

Ukraine is a non event and does not effect world economy. It is localised.

I never had these concerns with ebola, since it had no lockdowns like in China.

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:36 am

I'm getting tired of these threads already.

So many people are so confident that they absolutely KNEW what would happen. No. You envisioned one possible outcome of a situation which turned out to be correct. There were other possible outcomes envisioned which turned out to be incorrect. Had those other outcomes come to fruition, people would have KNOWN that too. Stop fooling yourselves. It's easy to envision multiple scenarios. It doesn't make you some kind of genius with otherworldly predictive powers. Of course this was a POSSIBLE outcome -- one of many.

Economic activity will decrease for a while. Perhaps a long while. There will be a scientific / technological / medical solution, and society will continue, and industry will return. I'm not ready to play this game of when to get out and when to get back in, agonizing about every decision or lack of a decision. I still have a lot of embedded capital gains from investments in 2008 and 2009. It would be a HUGE tax bill to liquidate those holdings right now.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:43 am

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:36 am
I'm getting tired of these threads already.

So many people are so confident that they absolutely KNEW what would happen. No. You envisioned one possible outcome of a situation which turned out to be correct.
Umm, no dude, I knew 100%, because since December 2019 I was following Covid news for hours a day. Studied infection cases, gov reactions and exponential growth. It was clear what was going to happen, there was no magic stopping it once cases outside China started popping up. That is when it became clear and that is when stock market was still up.
Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:36 am
There were other possible outcomes envisioned which turned out to be incorrect.
No there weren't. Did you follow the graphs? What magical other outcome could have there been? Virus just magically fading away? Only way to stop it gov mandated lockdown which freezes the economy.
Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:36 am
Stop fooling yourselves.
Cope. During my investing career I wasn't as certain with anything else as with spread of Covid19. Even in 2013 when I recommended bogleheads to check out Bitcoin I wasn't sure it will go up 100% ,I was only 80% sure. But with Covid19 in February I was 100% sure it will infect the world and didn't act due to ingrained learned helplessness from this forum and the whole "do nothing" bias and boglehead dogma.

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:36 am
It's easy to envision multiple scenarios. It doesn't make you some kind of genius with otherworldly predictive powers. Of course this was a POSSIBLE outcome -- one of many.
Name any other outcomes that could have happened once first cases outside China were confirmed and once you knew the lockdown measures that were put in place in China and weren't put in place anywhere else.

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paul e
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by paul e » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 am

Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am
paul e wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:47 am
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
As a Boglehead, you did just the right thing. In the immortal words of our great founder when speaking of volatility, 'Dont do something; just stand there'.. And you did. He would be proud.
Just because the majority of people don't understand events does not mean there are like 0.1% (like OP in this case) who perfectly well understood what will happen. Bogle's advice is for general populus, there are exceptions. OP was exception in this case. Bogles advice is protection against ignorance, OP wasn't ignorant. He followed dogma and missed out huge opportunity cost, same mistake I made.
Having a hunch is not 'Knowing'. OP says he knew. I say BS.. He had a hunch.. an educated guess perhaps. But I think his premise is filled with hindsight bias.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:52 am

paul e wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 am
Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am
paul e wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:47 am
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
As a Boglehead, you did just the right thing. In the immortal words of our great founder when speaking of volatility, 'Dont do something; just stand there'.. And you did. He would be proud.
Just because the majority of people don't understand events does not mean there are like 0.1% (like OP in this case) who perfectly well understood what will happen. Bogle's advice is for general populus, there are exceptions. OP was exception in this case. Bogles advice is protection against ignorance, OP wasn't ignorant. He followed dogma and missed out huge opportunity cost, same mistake I made.
Having a hunch is not 'Knowing'. OP says he knew. I say BS.. He had a hunch.. an educated guess perhaps. But I think his premise is filled with hindsight bias.
Incorrect. I've had "hunches" multiple times and never acted on them, because I knew they weren't surefire bets. This wasn't a hunch. I knew. I warned everyone and prepared at home. I prepared my prep bag, bought food, warned all friends and everyone. Finally I avoided putting any cash in market, KNOWING this will impact entire world. Explain to me how it could have been only a "hunch", when
- geometric growth was clear
- lockdowns were public knowledge
- virus spreading outside China was public knowledge
- death stats and leaked videos were public knowledge
- no antiviral was public knowledge
- lockdowns causing economic freeze was also public knowledge

Did anyone else see such lockdowns on such scale during Ebola and SARS and MERS?

No such thing.

So if China does lockdown of entire country for this virus and wee know it has spread else where then a logical person would conclude that lockdowns will follow in other countries and economy will be devastated. This is clear as day, 2+2 logical conclusion with NO alternatives. But please, tell me possible "alternative scenarios that could have happened".

vanuber
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by vanuber » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:54 am

Shallowpockets wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:54 am
We were all stupid. We were all looking at market highs. We were all thinking how long could it last. We remained stupid.
We wanted MORE. We wanted more than the highest the market had ever been.
We were greedy.
This is exactly right. I have been rebalancing my individual stocks with index funds since last year. I knew the market was great and that selling at a 10 year high could not be a bad idea - my gut was to sell it all. But then complacency came with the big climb in February and I missed the opportunity.

The speed of this drop made it very hard to catch.
"If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if an hour, I am ready now" - Woodrow Wilson

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Chip » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:58 am

Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am
but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%.

Reasons for 13% doubt:
- governments will freeze stock market trading
- governments will inject trillions into stocks, businesses and economy to "pump it up"
- people will adapt to online type of work and lifestyle
- cures currently actually exist
- antiviral eventually will be found
87%, huh? Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds to anyone who has been invested for any significant period of time?

If you have that much certainty there are plenty of option market plays that will make you the world's richest person in short order.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:06 am

Chip wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:58 am
Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am
but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%.

Reasons for 13% doubt:
- governments will freeze stock market trading
- governments will inject trillions into stocks, businesses and economy to "pump it up"
- people will adapt to online type of work and lifestyle
- cures currently actually exist
- antiviral eventually will be found
87%, huh? Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds to anyone who has been invested for any significant period of time?

If you have that much certainty there are plenty of option market plays that will make you the world's richest person in short order.
Wrong. I have that certainty only about current situation and about nothing else in the world of economy. Me being certain at this point doesn't mean I can be certain going forward about other things in world's markets.

I really knew thing one thing with extreme certainty and didn't act on it, because I was a fool following dogmatic thinking. Dogma overrode my logic.

Chip
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Chip » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 am

Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am
but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%.
Enlighten us here. How do you calculate 87% certainty? Not 80%, not 90%, but 87%.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:36 am

Chip wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 am
Vision wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am
but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%.
Enlighten us here. How do you calculate 87% certainty? Not 80%, not 90%, but 87%.
I don't know. Maybe it's 60%, maybe 87%. That is the thing - right now I'm talking from my gut. Market has priced in a lot of this already.

But in early February when I was sure this will be critical market hadn't priced in anything, in fact, it kept going higher. There I was actually sure. I "knew" that I "knew". I felt actually confident. I'm not anymore. It was 100% confidence for me not "hunch" or "guessing" or "most likely" like now.

Only thing I know - stocks are cheaper now than in last few years so if you waned to buy stocks you can buy them cheaper now and doing so would seem logical.

chevca
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by chevca » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:39 am

So, ALL the pros out there that do it day in and day out for a living didn't see it or do anything in February, but some select few amateurs that hang out in BHs did?? Sure....

digduggler
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by digduggler » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:39 am

OP, I understand where you are coming from. Two weeks ago I wanted to pull out (for the first time in my 20 years of investing), and decided I could live with 10% off the highs. I talked to some friends, who talked "sense" into me, and decided to stay the course. I made my own decision, not them, and it's not a bad one, even though I kick myself sometimes. You only get a few chances to follow your gut like this - but as others have said most of those times your gut will be wrong. We get the benefit of hindsight justification.

We can't change what we did or didn't do. At this point, set a bi-weekly or monthly calendar and rebalance so that your portfolio stays in your target. It might sound insane, and I highly suspect we haven't hit bottom. The best thing to do since your horizon is far out is to go on autopilot and stick with your plan.

Vision
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vision » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:41 am

chevca wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:39 am
So, ALL the pros out there that do it day in and day out for a living didn't see it or do anything in February, but some select few amateurs that hang out in BHs did?? Sure....
Yes, because all pros don't obsessively sit at home for 8hrs a day since December reading every new report from China regarding Corona virus.

I was ahead of curve. Even in January.

Pros don't read subreddits or watch leaked videos from China.

chevca
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by chevca » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:43 am

Over confident much? Jeez..

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