I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

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NYD3030
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I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm

Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.

Old Sage(brush)
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Old Sage(brush) » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:30 pm

Guess you were again with this statement: “- there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!”

Seriously, at your age you’ve got plenty of time to recover, and even better learn from your experiences (I wouldn’t even call them mistakes!!).

jjface
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by jjface » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:41 pm

It is easy in hindsight. You had a feeling that is all and things could have turned out very differently. What if it never got to Italy/Iran and therefore was contained more? etc etc. It is dangerous to think that just because one's gut feeling turned out right this time that you should follow instinct/gut feelings rather than sound principals. You'd need to be willing to take the risk of losing out if you want to play by instinct and gut feelings and most market timers fail miserably.

Fact is there will always be some who guess right. My brother sold off but he is no genius. Last time he sold off he missed half of the bull market and I guess being right this time will lead him to make similar mistakes in the future. Will he or I be ahead in 30 years? Who knows. I just know I will get there with less risk and stress and my goals will be met - don't need more than that.
Last edited by jjface on Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

knowledge
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by knowledge » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm

This has to be balanced against every other time you were absolutely, 100% certain that something was going to happen...and it didn't.

Monsterflockster
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Monsterflockster » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:49 pm

knowledge wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm
This has to be balanced against every other time you were absolutely, 100% certain that something was going to happen...and it didn't.
+1.

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JoMoney
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by JoMoney » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:54 pm

You need to determine what kind of investor you are.
Passive investing does not involve trying to time or out-trade other traders. Buy-and-hold, "rebalance" to maintain your risk profile, maybe DCA spreading purchases/sales over time.
Trying to garner something extra by out-trading other investors is a different game. If that's what you expect to do, this really isn't the style or investing forum for you.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:55 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
I think that you "guessed" it would happen and did nothing. There is a difference. If you knew for certainties, you must have been back from the future.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Vilgan » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:59 pm

I knew that the market was going to drop, although I expected 20%. Anyone paying attention to China should have seen it.

However, all I did was hold a large amount of cash (from house sale) rather than putting it into the market. I just recently put it all in.

Had I thought through things at all, I would have bought a ton of options a month ago. Just didn't really put any thought into it beyond "the market is definitely going to drop a lot, it would be insane to buy right now". So I guess I saved 25% on that cash, but could have made a ton more if I'd taken action. Was just too distracted with living life.

Amusingly, a general feeling that the market would tank at some point due to Trump's tax breaks/other things had me buying up way more bonds than I used to. That looks better now, but not for the reason I expected.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Arabesque » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:04 pm

I also knew it was going to happen because I have lived in China, follow China closely, and have a healthcare background. I did some things in February, but nowhere near enough. I too feel silly. Even so, I am so grateful to Bogleheads because they convinced me to have an appropriate allocation for my age.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Flyer24 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:07 pm

A snarky comment has been removed. Please be respectful to each other.

delamer
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by delamer » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm

At your age, why do you feel that you should have changed your long-term stock allocation due to a short-term market drop?

Or do you think the pandemic is going to permanently change the market?

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:13 pm

Imagine you are a month in to SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1, or even the mega-deadly 1918 Bird Flu; would you have the same urge to sell it all and wait for a 30% drawdown?

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:29 pm

delamer wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
At your age, why do you feel that you should have changed your long-term stock allocation due to a short-term market drop?

Or do you think the pandemic is going to permanently change the market?
No I'm fully on board that as scary as this is we'll be back to normal before too long. I mean we survived and prospered through the black death. We'll pull out of this too.

It's really just that this was the one time I was actually onto something early! I don't intend to alter anything I do going forward and I certainly won't see the next one coming, just like I didn't see the last. This one just happened to line up with my narrow interests.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by fwellimort » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:35 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:29 pm
It's really just that this was the one time I was actually onto something early! I don't intend to alter anything I do going forward and I certainly won't see the next one coming, just like I didn't see the last. This one just happened to line up with my narrow interests.
I think many Bogleheaders regret here not reacting to such a big and glaringly obvious red light (doing a put on these abnormally quick drops could make millions out of small sums of money (4~5 figures)).

There's nothing wrong with "buy and hold" (like everyone including you and me are doing currently).
However, once a while, when you spot something 'obvious' that others haven't, don't be too stuck on a mantra.

I know many Bogleheaders will get mad over this but this exact concept is more or less the popular talks with 5 monkeys, a ladder, a banana, and a water spray
(https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/ques ... pray-condu).
And from this, people learn.
I can tell you you will probably have a few more "this is it" moments in your life. Don't ever be too stuck on a strategy or belief. Be willing to be flexible but do do your due diligence before reacting to such beliefs (and understand the risks when doing so as the 'average investor' tends to have errs in his/her beliefs).

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Scott S
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Scott S » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm

Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by 9-5 Suited » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:43 pm

Out of curiosity, when would you get back in to equities had you cashed out early? There are plenty of dire predictions of 75% drops and a global Depression. Would you buy into the teeth of this thing now? In a week? In a month? It’s really hard to do the second step even if you cash out correctly.

I also think this might be good for you in the long run. If you’d have successfully cashed out you might have felt really great about it and inflated your spider sense ability enough that it caused you to take that action again many more times in the future.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by fwellimort » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:51 pm

Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
This.
At this point, the general consensus seems to be that the stock market will 'drop more'.
Sure you could do a limit order today and make a limit order at say '1~2% less' but in the grand scheme of things, we are already so far down the rabbit hole that there aren't any "big money" to really be made as options have become expensive (and being too greedy to 'find the bottom' with a large % could result in the investor to end up purchasing at a higher price).
Out of curiosity, when would you get back in to equities had you cashed out early? There are plenty of dire predictions of 75% drops and a global Depression. Would you buy into the teeth of this thing now? In a week? In a month? It’s really hard to do the second step even if you cash out correctly.
If you are fully confident (and aware of the risks) that the stock market is entering a recession, your puts/leverages should earn you far more money than money made trying to 'beat the market long term'.

Anyways, I plan leveraging once this corona virus subsides (and leveraging by the way 'underperforms' the market by academia terms).
I believe markets will go up just as quickly once the virus slowly disappears and I plan
acting on such beliefs knowing the risks. Maybe I could be wrong but I rather put my beliefs to the test than sit out and regret.
Of course, I have my 'serious retirement account' not being played for good reason (and I am currently in a great financial position to take risks -six figure worth at age 23).
Last edited by fwellimort on Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:04 pm, edited 5 times in total.

MarceT
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by MarceT » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:54 pm

I am grateful for this post because I increased my bond/fixed income allocation during the third week of February, just before this craziness! ( I actually went a little higher on bonds because I had the feeling something bad was coming).

The hard part is now try to figure out when to rebalance...

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Fallible » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:54 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again! ...
You say you were "absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February." But what specifically did you think would happen? Another way to put it, what actually did happen that you were "certain" was going to happen?

Thanks.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Wiggums » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:08 pm

A global health crisis coinciding with the 11th year of the bull market. Who knew the market would drop five times faster than 2008? I remember reading about mean regression in Taylor’s book. This event does reinforce many of the BH principles. Having an adequate emergency fund, appropriate asset allocation and time in the market, etc.

It will take time to resolve. It’s unfortunate that seven states are not banning large gatherings. This will only serve to put others at risk. I guess the economic loss is more important than the people. My wife’s VP was notified that she had contact with a confirmed person. She had contact with 44 people. They don’t have enough test kits, so people go untested.
Last edited by Wiggums on Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by HomerJ » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:09 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
Did you KNOW the swine flu or Ebola or H1N1 was "going to happen".

Because I read "The Stand" too, and I was scared of those viruses, but this didn't happen with them.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by retired@50 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:15 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
...
Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!
...
Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
Well, if you admit that you'll never have this clairvoyance again, then you are admitting you wouldn't know when to buy back in IF you had sold.

That's the trouble with trying to time the market, you have to be right at least twice, just to avoid one bear market.

Regards,
This is one person's opinion. Nothing more.

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:09 pm

Fallible wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:54 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again! ...
You say you were "absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February." But what specifically did you think would happen? Another way to put it, what actually did happen that you were "certain" was going to happen?

Thanks.
I was certain this was going to turn into a big problem and tank the market. I'm reading through my journal and I specifically reference my certainty that this is going to happen for the first time on February 12th. I mentioned it because I felt crazy that nobody was taking this seriously but me.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Danzangdc » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:10 pm

Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
This mantra really isn't true. For a market timing move to be successful, you don't have to do anything "exactly." You just have to sell sometime before the bottom. The closer you are, the more differential advantage you get vs. buy and hold. People who do nothing aren't actually doing nothing, they are making a decision each today to be bought into in the market.

I was in the same shoes as the OP, except I pushed the button and cashed out in mid-late February. The virus clearly was doing economic harm and was a real global threat, yet the market was still going up. It made no sense. And when did I buy back in? Today. The market easily could drop another 20-30% on extended bad news about unemployment and ineffective government response. Or maybe a promising cure is announced next week and it shoots up. All I know for sure is I avoided a 30% loss of my retirement funds. That's locked in forever, no matter how "exactly" I timed the bottom of the market.

I'll probably never time the market again, because I usually won't have greater insight than the professionals. But this ONE time, it was staring me in the face that the market was wrong.

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:16 pm

Danzangdc wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:10 pm
Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
This mantra really isn't true. For a market timing move to be successful, you don't have to do anything "exactly." You just have to sell sometime before the bottom. The closer you are, the more differential advantage you get vs. buy and hold. People who do nothing aren't actually doing nothing, they are making a decision each today to be bought into in the market.

I was in the same shoes as the OP, except I pushed the button and cashed out in mid-late February. The virus clearly was doing economic harm and was a real global threat, yet the market was still going up. It made no sense. And when did I buy back in? Today. The market easily could drop another 20-30% on extended bad news about unemployment and ineffective government response. Or maybe a promising cure is announced next week and it shoots up. All I know for sure is I avoided a 30% loss of my retirement funds. That's locked in forever, no matter how "exactly" I timed the bottom of the market.

I'll probably never time the market again, because I usually won't have greater insight than the professionals. But this ONE time, it was staring me in the face that the market was wrong.
That's exactly how I feel, this ONE time I knew something other people didn't. Good on you for pulling the trigger.

David Althaus
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by David Althaus » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:31 pm

OP--do yourself a favor and read Danny Kanneman (sp?) "Thinking Fast and Slo". Helps disabuse such a thought process.

All the best

Iridium
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Iridium » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:34 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:09 pm
I was certain this was going to turn into a big problem and tank the market. I'm reading through my journal and I specifically reference my certainty that this is going to happen for the first time on February 12th. I mentioned it because I felt crazy that nobody was taking this seriously but me.
Public health officials were taking it seriously, I believe the emergency declaration happened at the end of January. I'm still not convinced that if the CDC test hadn't failed upon being sent to state labs, that all of this would have happened (as of February 12th, it was not clear the CDC wouldn't be able to quickly solve the issue). A month ago, China was the main worry, now they are humming along and it isn't clear that they will take any lasting damage from this. South Korea was able to test its way to flattening the curve and never had to go to the extreme social distancing we are forced to do. If their economy takes a huge hit it is more likely due to what is going on outside their borders. I don't remember if the possibility of asymptomatic contagion was a certainty by February 12.

If we could have contained the outbreak about 3 weeks longer than we had, testing would have likely been quick and plentiful, and at least one drug would be keeping the fatality rate low and pushing people out of the ICU beds faster.

Alas, the CDC kits failed, along with the possibility of doing 60,000 tests at the beginning of the outbreak, as well as surveillance for community outbreak. Which gave us a total of a 2 month head start, when our hearth system could really have used 3. Too bad. Maybe likely. Wouldn't call it a certainty. Maybe we'll get to see who is right: the pessimists are predicting a second wave after we best the first one. If the US has to go back into lockdown despite all the time and learnings from the first wave then I am wrong. If the second and subsequent waves can be handled with contact tracing and limited closures, then I would claim the current situation was not inevitable at all.

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NYD3030
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by NYD3030 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:51 pm

David Althaus wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:31 pm
OP--do yourself a favor and read Danny Kanneman (sp?) "Thinking Fast and Slo". Helps disabuse such a thought process.

All the best
I've been intending to read that for a long time in fact. I'll pick it up now.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by MAandMEMom » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:09 pm

I’m new here and simply read, haven’t amassed a near fortune like some of you and I’m too old to start the BH way now. But even before the virus it seemed like the market was just too good to be true. Someone on another forum thought the magic date would be end of January because of the coming elections and Brexit voting. I decided to move all my funds that were maybe 85/15 in one of my accounts (TIAA) into the guaranteed on January 10. Thankfully I did because my other lifecycle accounts are taking a beating. I’m fortunate to have a defined benefit pension in a solid state when I retire in ten years.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Scott S » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:17 pm

Danzangdc wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:10 pm
Scott S wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:41 pm
Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy.

The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink:
This mantra really isn't true. For a market timing move to be successful, you don't have to do anything "exactly." You just have to sell sometime before the bottom. The closer you are, the more differential advantage you get vs. buy and hold. People who do nothing aren't actually doing nothing, they are making a decision each today to be bought into in the market.

I was in the same shoes as the OP, except I pushed the button and cashed out in mid-late February. The virus clearly was doing economic harm and was a real global threat, yet the market was still going up. It made no sense. And when did I buy back in? Today. The market easily could drop another 20-30% on extended bad news about unemployment and ineffective government response. Or maybe a promising cure is announced next week and it shoots up. All I know for sure is I avoided a 30% loss of my retirement funds. That's locked in forever, no matter how "exactly" I timed the bottom of the market.

I'll probably never time the market again, because I usually won't have greater insight than the professionals. But this ONE time, it was staring me in the face that the market was wrong.
I'd been rebalancing out of stocks into bonds for about two years up until recently. It's what my IPS told me to do to maintain my target asset allocation as stocks kept rising. It felt good to do because we all "knew" that a crash was coming any day now. If the market had plunged in 2018 or 2019, I'd be patting myself on the back for being a genius market timer, just like you are now. But the truth is, we just don't know. ;)
Last edited by Scott S on Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Fallible » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:19 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:09 pm
Fallible wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:54 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again! ...
You say you were "absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February." But what specifically did you think would happen? Another way to put it, what actually did happen that you were "certain" was going to happen?

Thanks.
I was certain this was going to turn into a big problem and tank the market. I'm reading through my journal and I specifically reference my certainty that this is going to happen for the first time on February 12th. I mentioned it because I felt crazy that nobody was taking this seriously but me.
Nobody was taking this seriously but you?? How about all the health experts, the epidemiologists, the hospitals, the doctors, who not only knew but tried vainly to sound the alarm? And surely Wall Street's pros with their inside information picked up on it at some early point, though they may not have guessed how big the fall.

And you haven't said specifically what you knew, e.g., how this coronavirus would play out in this country, or what the initial reactions would be that led to delays, or the CDC's test problems, i.e., all of the things that had to happen before the market finally crashed.

Also, there's no certainty in investing.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. ~Richard Feynman

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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by tvubpwcisla » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:20 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
You will feel joy soon when you experience the V-Shaped recovery! :moneybag
Stay invested my friends.

vipertom1970
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:21 pm

Next time just short sell everything to make money when you have that feeling again.

fwellimort
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by fwellimort » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:29 pm

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:20 pm
You will feel joy soon when you experience the V-Shaped recovery! :moneybag
If you even have the smallest hunch stock market will go up after this, you should leverage your way up.

That's what I plan to do. Markets have quite stabilized now (no more huge drops and issues with liquidities leaving noticeable spreads in the stock/bond market aka market showing huge inefficiences) and I believe we will hit the 'bottom' within the next few weeks.

With all these trillions of dollars injected and near zero interest rates, the stock market is paying too much dividends currently to not be overbought once this fiasco ends.
If there's any flaws to my logic, please do lecture me. I cannot see this failing outside a 2x or 3x being liquidated.

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2pedals
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by 2pedals » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:49 pm

I am absolutely 100% certain that I am going to die someday but I am not doing enough things on my bucket list because of the travel bans. :annoyed
It's all too easy to look back and wish we’d made different choices.

ionball
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by ionball » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:21 pm

I knew that I didn't know what would happen with macro events beyond my control. I knew that I constructed a plan designed for market turbulence.

And I did nothing.

We all miss perceived opportunities and can still succeed. Chart your destination and stay the course.

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Cubicle
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Cubicle » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:27 pm

Hindsight is always 20/20. Don't kick yourself over it.

But do kick yourself if your plan was to sell & short or 3x inverse the market indices. Now we're talking...
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓

Clemblack
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Clemblack » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:30 pm

retired@50 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:15 pm
NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
...
Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!
...
Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
Well, if you admit that you'll never have this clairvoyance again, then you are admitting you wouldn't know when to buy back in IF you had sold.

That's the trouble with trying to time the market, you have to be right at least twice, just to avoid one bear market.

Regards,


I don't agree, but correct me if I'm wrong.

One does not have to be "right at least twice" in order to have made a good decision. You don't have to buy in at the exact bottom. If someone got out of the market at 26,000 and back in at 21,000, then he did better than the guy who held. Doesn't matter if the bottom ends up being 17,000.

FireProof
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by FireProof » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:32 pm

delamer wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
At your age, why do you feel that you should have changed your long-term stock allocation due to a short-term market drop?

Or do you think the pandemic is going to permanently change the market?
Well, if he truly knew there would be a drop, he could have sold, then bought back in after the drop. Maybe he wouldn't have timed the bottom perfectly, but still obviously better than riding it out. My dad actually did that, against my advice - sold about 5% below the peak. We'll see when he gets back in, though.

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physixfan
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by physixfan » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:33 pm

I basically stayed the course, holding ~60% long treasury bond and ~40% stocks. I know the big impact that the coronavirus would cause, since Feb. However, I failed to predict the mad stuff that Saudi did, and I also failed to predict the hedge funds would cause liquidity problems among everything. Therefore I failed to predict the long bonds would fail to be a good hedge to the stocks. But I admit that I don't have the ability to predict these stuff, so I admit I deserve the loss.

outbackcountry
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by outbackcountry » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:52 pm

I knew too but was half lucky! not that I knew Covid crash is coming but the market was insane during Q4, so expected a correction. Also wanted to clean-up (taxable account) and convert to a simple passive index based portfolio. Started selling mid December and by mid January, moved to cash for about 40% in taxable; fully to cash in HSA, IRA accounts (both small accounts). From 80/20 stock/bond to 45/55 by end of Jan. By mid Feb I was ruing the opportunity I had in Jan to fully clean-up the taxable account but I was lucky to do something.

All Seasons
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by All Seasons » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:58 pm

A better solution than playing these forecasting games with subsequent regret is to simply adopt a portfolio that is ready for any economic climate.

Dump the 3-fund and 60/40 type hogwash and get a real portfolio.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
The market portfolio is always a legitimate portfolio.

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raidman
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by raidman » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:00 pm

An admission. Last week I did sell some equities (first time ever) in anticipation of a market drop (was gonna rebalance anyway and felt a lil saucy).

How did I "know"? Earlier that week a trader friend asked me if the virus was gonna hit NYC. "Umm, yeah". It just showed me Wall Street's complete ignorance of where this was heading. (I have a health background).

Observations so far...
1) The next challenge is buying back in at the right time, as others have pointed out. I'll be happy if I make any gain at all, so that's a relatively low bar to hit.
2) It has been stressful day-to-day watching the markets, considering when to buy back in. I would not want this stress all the time.
3) I don't enjoy subconsciously rooting "against" the markets right now. Seems sleazy.

So I'll probably make some money off this trade. But I won't really want to do it again.

Another observation. Our leaders are still willfully ignorant of where this pandemic is going (national and state level, both political sides). By the numbers, the US caseload and deathload worsen 10x every week. Last Thursday we were shocked about rumors schools might close! Today the entire state of CA was put under house arrest. What will next Thursday look like? By the numbers, which have been scary consistent, it will be ten times worse than today. Use your imagination.

So is it STILL time to sell? :twisted: I won't be selling any more, I'll tell you that...

sparksfly
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by sparksfly » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:02 pm

Sorry to be blunt but no, you didn’t know this would happen. For future, the best advice I can give you is to get away from this thought.

Ask this board and majority will say they knew. You can even find threads that talk about market crashing, it’s too high, is it a bubble. Nobody knew this then and nobody will know when this happens again. What you can do is to add this experience in your arsenal and be better prepared next time when something like this hits you.

All Seasons
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by All Seasons » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:06 pm

This silliness happens in EVERY market drop.

People over-estimate their risk tolerance and do silly things. They then play the regret game and start adopting conservative allocations at exactly the wrong time.

Then the market goes up for a few years and everyone takes a big dump on conservative allocations and ridicules those people. They ride high until these drops happen again, and go through tons of unnecessary emotional turmoil AGAIN.

Here's a forum with a better investing approach than mumbling "stay the course" to yourself every 2 seconds while you rock back and forth in a corner with your hands around your knees.

www.gyroscopicinvesting.com
The market portfolio is always a legitimate portfolio.

phantom0308
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by phantom0308 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:15 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:29 pm
I mean we survived and prospered through the black death. We'll pull out of this too.
I think prospered is a bit of a stretch for the Black Death. That was well before the industrial revolution when growth was usually below 1%. I think the only reason people were wealthier after the Black Death was that GDP/capita went up b/c the capita went down.

Pu239
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Pu239 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:35 pm

Op - I've had so many "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" in my life that it's depressing to look back and lament about alternative outcomes. Still, the positives have outnumbered the negatives and life is good. Bad money decisions are low on the list of regrets.
Between the idea And the reality...Between the motion And the act...Falls the Shadow - T. S. Eliot

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sergeant
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by sergeant » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:43 pm

The title almost caused me to alert a mod that it was a political post aimed at a government leader.

OP, next time you absolutely know something is going to happen in the future tell everyone you know, post it on social media, write in to your local paper and wait for everyone to crown you a psychic or charlatan.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.

RonSwanson
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by RonSwanson » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:44 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
If you knew for sure, you would have clicked that button. You didn't know for sure. Nobody did. Don't beat yourself up about it.

Prahasaurus
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Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Post by Prahasaurus » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 pm

NYD3030 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However I followed my boglehead marching orders and didn't make any allocation adjustments. I went so far as to put the sell order into vanguard but I couldn't hit the button. Now I'm kind of kicking myself - there is no way I'm ever going to have this clairvoyance again!

Oh well. I'm 37, I've got time. Just thought I'd commiserate. Thanks guys.
What is that inner voice saying about the next two weeks, when US hospitals start to resemble a war zone, and France and Spain go down, too?
Asset Allocation: 50% cash (USD), 30% VT, 20% Bitcoin

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