When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

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MightyVinyl
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MightyVinyl »

Being an optimistic pessimist, I’m hoping we’ve returned to highs no later than 2 years before my 65th birthday, which is when I would like to retire, so:

January 30 2024.

Then I could have two years of additional gains before I pull the plug Jan. 30 2026.... :oops:
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PhysicianOnFIRE
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by PhysicianOnFIRE »

2/22/2022

:beer
-PoF
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DartThrower
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by DartThrower »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:41 pm Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
He has the credentials:

Early on I decided that I was going to lie to the press. The best approach to talking about my personal life was to lie.
-- Nick Nolte
Being an optimist I'll go with 4 years. Just prior to the start of the Nolte Administration.
Our patience will achieve more than our force. -Edmund Burke
MindBogler
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MindBogler »

June 2021.
MotoTrojan
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MotoTrojan »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:14 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 pm April 16, 2029
Do you actually think so?
Yes, because it's my birthday that day.
I guess that would bode well for this early accumulator.
Daryl
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Daryl »

If I want to have a chance of winning the Boglehead contest, I need the S&P 500 to increase even more than 3386!
Daryl wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:32 am 3535.35 (as they say in the financial news, I'm "cautiously optimistic", which I'm pretty sure translates to "I have no idea what I'm talking about")
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JoMoney
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by JoMoney »

I dunno... I'm not sure I care exactly when, as long as it starts heading back in that direction.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by JonnyDVM »

This Is not going away anytime soon, but the economy should spring back relatively quickly when it finally does go away. People will flock back to restaurants, take that vacation they couldn’t go on, and spend lavishly on all the things we currently can’t. I would say 3-4 years to get back to the high. A relatively swift recovery. I’ll hedge and say September 15, 2023.
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fwellimort
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by fwellimort »

All these Bogleheaders who are so confident on the recovery, I want to ask you all including Taylor, why wouldn't you leverage once this recession ends.

If you guys all believe the stock market will go up and pass "the peak", leverage even say 2x (or just 1.2x, etc. instead of 2+x) seems a much wiser decision.

I really want to hear you alls perspective on this. And not the "leverage is bad. It's gambling" cause historically, after a bull market came a bull market.

Unless people expect another huge bear market on top of this right away. In which case, why invest in the stock market.

If you believe markets will instead be stagnant for 6-10 years, then ouch.
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JoMoney
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by JoMoney »

fwellimort wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:39 pm All these Bogleheaders who are so confident on the recovery, I want to ask you all including Taylor, why wouldn't you leverage once this recession ends.

If you guys all believe the stock market will go up and pass "the peak", leverage even say 2x (or just 1.2x, etc. instead of 2+x) seems a much wiser decision.

I really want to hear you alls perspective on this. And not the "leverage is bad. It's gambling" cause historically, after a bull market came a bull market.

Unless people expect another huge bear market on top of this right away. In which case, why invest in the stock market.

If you believe markets will instead be stagnant for 6-10 years, then ouch.
The stock market will already be going up before the recession ends, so doing it "once this recession ends" would likely be a bit late to catch the big rise.
Chasing returns is a lousy way to manage risk. Stocks are risky all the time, you can set your allocation to that risky asset to a profile that suits you. That may be 50% stocks / 50% bonds , or that may be 120% stocks -20% cash ... but being in a recession or not shouldn't change your willingness to be exposed to the risks that comes with being in stocks. Even if at some point they do have higher "expected returns" from being priced lower, they continue to be risky. You have no control over whether or not higher returns materialize, but you can control how much you expose yourself to the risks.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Blue_Ocea35
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Blue_Ocea35 »

05/15/2024
Escapevelocity
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Escapevelocity »

September 2020
lostdog
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by lostdog »

It will be a V shaped recovery. Around September 2020. There will be a lot of pent up demand

Just a guess.
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jabberwockOG
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by jabberwockOG »

02nz wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:01 pm January 20, 2021. :wink:
I think it may be one day later - January 21, 2021. :sharebeer
Ocean77
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Ocean77 »

A side question: Once it reached bottom, when will the market go back up to the current level of 2404?

My own guess: January 2021.
And to the OP question: December 2023.
Double Dog
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Double Dog »

I think you're all way too optimistic. I don't expect any quick rebounds in a year or two.

My prediction is January 17, 2025
Last edited by Double Dog on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ocean77
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Ocean77 »

lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:11 pm It will be a V shaped recovery. Around September 2020. There will be a lot of pent up demand

Just a guess.
I agree with the V, but the tip of the V may be quite a bit lower than where we are now.
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9-5 Suited
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 9-5 Suited »

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:37 pm This Is not going away anytime soon, but the economy should spring back relatively quickly when it finally does go away. People will flock back to restaurants, take that vacation they couldn’t go on, and spend lavishly on all the things we currently can’t. I would say 3-4 years to get back to the high. A relatively swift recovery. I’ll hedge and say September 15, 2023.
I generally agree, but I think we should acknowledge the real possibility that an unbelievably large number of people will have experienced severe income or job loss making it very difficult to spend a lot of money back into the economy. And if many small businesses close, it may take a long time for enough people to re-accumulate enough capital to start them again.

I’ll reverse your numbers and say September 13, 2025.
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Cubicle
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Cubicle »

The 2nd January mid month after the bottom. Rationale:

Once we hit the bottom of the market & virus infections, pent up demand will result in a spike in spending, initially. But then it will take 2 summers & 2 holiday seasons for "business" to be at current levels, followed by companies reporting q4 (holiday) earnings, usually 2nd week in January.
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TheRightKost87
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by TheRightKost87 »

02nz wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:01 pm January 20, 2021. :wink:
A familiar face brings stability to the market?
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Barcelonasteve
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Barcelonasteve »

Within 3 years, if many become sick. The older, sicker people will have passed on their wealth to those with less experience and more optimism, so the markets will be flooded with naive money, causing prices to exceed reasonable valuations. :twisted:
Novine
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Novine »

9-5 Suited wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:43 pm I generally agree, but I think we should acknowledge the real possibility that an unbelievably large number of people will have experienced severe income or job loss making it very difficult to spend a lot of money back into the economy. And if many small businesses close, it may take a long time for enough people to re-accumulate enough capital to start them again.

I’ll reverse your numbers and say September 13, 2025.
This is about where I am for the reasons you stated but I could easily see it taking much longer to reach the pre-crash levels. These predictions of a return to those numbers this year are, in my view, delusional. You can't shut down an entire economy for months on end and expect it will bounce back in a few months. Over the next few months, there's going to be a massive amount of economic damage done (it's already happening now) including job losses, bankruptcies and all the economic dislocation that goes with that. I would encourage the optimists out there to read more about the difficulties in controlling this virus, the length of times it's expected that we'll have to be in shutdown mode to suppress it and the difficulties and time frame to develop a virus. Don't listen to the pseudo-experts with no real background in these areas. None of the real experts are predicting a quick or easy victory over this virus.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Novine »

Deleted
Last edited by Novine on Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ray_McKigney
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Ray_McKigney »

February 23, 2023

Hey, let’s run our own “jar of jellybeans” experiment by averaging all of the guesses and see how close we get. :)
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9-5 Suited
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 9-5 Suited »

PhysicianOnFIRE wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:51 pm 2/22/2022

:beer
-PoF
I'm glad you were able to at least get that one "0" in there or that could have been a brutal prediction :)
MathIsMyWayr
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MathIsMyWayr »

Early 2027 assuming 5% growth rate (3% real growth and 2% inflation). Total real return will be 5% with 2% dividends.
helloeveryone
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by helloeveryone »

Alex GR wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:32 pm On February 19th, 2020 (exactly one month ago), S&P was @ 3386, highest in history.
At the time of this writing, it is at 2404, a historical moment and a painful crash of 29% in 1 month.
Your best guess, WHEN will it reach that value again?
I'll start. My guess: April 2021.
Come on, it will be interesting. We can refer to this post in years to come and see who was closest :sharebeer

P.S. This is the first real crash for me. Dec 2018 I don't really view as a crash 'cause it was over before I noticed. In 2001/2002 I didn't have any money. In 2008 I didn't have any stock except some old Janus funds to the tune of $30k which I sold when the market started crashing and used as a down payment on a house.
March 2025
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BenfromToronto
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by BenfromToronto »

I hope for the best by I am prepared for the worst.
Unless we find that an existing medication helps with COVID-19, the social isolation measures will have to last until more than 50% of the world population has been infected (and has recovered) or until we have a vaccine.
Either way, this will take at least 18 months.
The economic havoc associated with the social isolation measures will lead to a severe recession or even possibly a depression.
Thus, the market will continue to decline for several months, another 30% for a total decline of 66.6% by the fall of 2020 or early 2021.
(This was my prediction on another thread three weeks ago:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=305332&start=100#p5053225)

Then, once everybody has capitulated, it will start going up again.
It will take at least 5 years to climb back to 3386.
Thus the date will be 2026/6/6.
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MoneyMarathon
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MoneyMarathon »

Alex GR wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:32 pm On February 19th, 2020 (exactly one month ago), S&P was @ 3386, highest in history.
At the time of this writing, it is at 2404, a historical moment and a painful crash of 29% in 1 month.
Your best guess, WHEN will it reach that value again?
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/m ... erspective
"Even more severe pullbacks of 20-40 percent registered an average recovery period of only 15 months."
"In contrast, pullbacks of 40 percent or more, while occurring much less frequently, post an average recovery time of 58 months..."

So, conditionally, if all the negative information is in and it doesn't go much lower, then maybe 2021.

If there's something lurking that has not fully developed that will send markets into a much deeper tailspin, then maybe 2025.
Ronocnayr
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Ronocnayr »

September 23rd, 2022 11AM.
02nz
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 02nz »

TheRightKost87 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:49 pm
02nz wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:01 pm January 20, 2021. :wink:
A familiar face brings stability to the market?
And an end to our exhaustion from so much winning.
javabean
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by javabean »

11/4/2024 when the stable genius departs office.
HenrysPlan2
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by HenrysPlan2 »

I think 2022. It might go down another 20% or 30% if infected like Italy. Bottom in 2-3 months.
tealeaves
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by tealeaves »

4/30/2020. Then I will sell in May and go away (forever).
Prahasaurus
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Prahasaurus »

June 2029.

I think a better question is when will the S&P hit 1500? I'm thinking May 15, 2020 or so, when the number of cases in the US peaks, the bond market collapses, and the entire country is under Martial Law. 20% our Congressmen will be sick with the virus, and we'll see the first death from the cabinet. That's also probably about the time Brazil has a revolution, and Putin uses the army to attack protestors, demanding to know why they did little in advance to stop the spread of this virus, when clearly it could have been controlled with competent government policies.

However, the market may be shut down temporarily in mid May, so this date could be off.
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stlutz
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by stlutz »

I agree with those who say 2030.
Surdelsur
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Surdelsur »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:56 pm 2 moths for virus plateau, 2 months for recovery from virus, 1 year for markets to recover afterwards, with 6 months for investors to realize the market has recovered. 22 months from now so that means Jan 2022 to reach the next all time high.

Warning: I suck at predicting the future.
This. Maybe 1-2 months more for each of those steps, so Jan-Jun 2022
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Stef
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Stef »

December 2020.
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Harry Livermore
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Harry Livermore »

October 3, 2032.
Cheers
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Sandtrap
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Sandtrap »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:14 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 pm April 16, 2029
Do you actually think so?
Yes, because it's my birthday that day.
And because it was my birthday the day before :D :D

j
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ARoseByAnyOtherName
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName »

This thread is extremely silly. I could duplicate this thread by throwing darts at a calendar.

How about posters making these predictions explain why they think it will rebound by the given date.

I have no predictions myself.

Some people deal with the world as it is. Some people deal with the world as they want it to be.

Which bucket do you fall into?
BlackStrat
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by BlackStrat »

depends on the election

if one guy wins: November 2020
if the other guy wins: November 2024

:oops:
camaro327
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by camaro327 »

I’ll pick May 2022. I think there’s going to be a lot of rethinking by businesses regarding supply chains, disaster plans, etc.
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Alex GR
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Alex GR »

Everyone,
While I welcome all kinds of opinions and humorous replies, please try to include the actual guess in your post (month and year OR full date including day of month if you'd like). It'll be more interesting that way. We can refer to this many years down the road, compare to 2008, etc.
Please try not to be facetious, i.e. please only post replies like "April 2020" or "October 2032" if you really mean it.
Also, we know that if S&P sinks further (I may not be around then 'cause I'll have a heart attack) it will at some point go back to today's level of 2400. We also know (or hope) that someday it'll be higher than 3386.
But this particular thread is about when it will come back to the historical high of 3386.
I'll take it as an action item to compile responses and come up with an average guesstimate.
It looks like the number of cases jumped exponentially yesterday so my own guess may now be too optimistic.
P.S. Please remember that this is about the S&P 500, its recent crash and potential recovery, not a coronavirus discussion!
Last edited by Alex GR on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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vitaflo
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by vitaflo »

The housing recession took about 5 1/2 years to regain its peak.

The dot-com bust took 7 years (and was immediately followed by the housing recession).

I suppose how long you think it will take to get back to its prior peak depends on how bad you consider this one to be compared to the prior two.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by peppers »

"Somewhere over the rainbow way up high".....
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by DiploInvestor »

March 15, 2021. Late afternoon.
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JD2775
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by JD2775 »

These guesses are wild...

You have a group of people thinking it will return later THIS YEAR, then you have people saying 5-10 years from now, and a few people in between.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by oldcomputerguy »

This topic has run its course and has been locked. General comment threads will be locked unless they are about actionable investment theory. Wild guesses as to when the S&P 500 will hit certain numbers are not actionable.
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