When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

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Alex GR
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When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Alex GR »

On February 19th, 2020 (exactly one month ago), S&P was @ 3386, highest in history.
At the time of this writing, it is at 2404, a historical moment and a painful crash of 29% in 1 month.
Your best guess, WHEN will it reach that value again?
I'll start. My guess: April 2021.
Come on, it will be interesting. We can refer to this post in years to come and see who was closest :sharebeer

P.S. This is the first real crash for me. Dec 2018 I don't really view as a crash 'cause it was over before I noticed. In 2001/2002 I didn't have any money. In 2008 I didn't have any stock except some old Janus funds to the tune of $30k which I sold when the market started crashing and used as a down payment on a house.
Last edited by Alex GR on Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
1130Super
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 1130Super »

April 25 2022
The Broz
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by The Broz »

December 2020
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willthrill81
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by willthrill81 »

October, 2021.
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bumbojumbo
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by bumbojumbo »

March 19, 2025
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by z3r0c00l »

Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
Bigt3142
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Bigt3142 »

SEPTEMBER 2020
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Sandtrap
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Sandtrap »

Before November 8, 2022

or in the year before November 2024

j :happy
Last edited by Sandtrap on Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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physixfan
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by physixfan »

People are too optimistic. I think it will take 10 years, so Feb 2030.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by badbreath »

July 2021
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Pikel
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Pikel »

10 year guess; annually
Earnings Growth = 3.5%
Dividend Yield = 2%
Speculative Yield = -2%

2404*(1+.035+.02-.02)^t = 3386

t = ln(3386/2404)/ln(1.035) = 10

April 2030

:(
Last edited by Pikel on Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
TeeDee
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by TeeDee »

October 26th, 2020
Immafreak
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Immafreak »

September 22nd, 2020
EnjoyIt
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by EnjoyIt »

2 moths for virus plateau, 2 months for recovery from virus, 1 year for markets to recover afterwards, with 6 months for investors to realize the market has recovered. 22 months from now so that means Jan 2022 to reach the next all time high.

Warning: I suck at predicting the future.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by bogledogle »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:41 pm Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
This was funny.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by geerhardusvos »

Not in 2020, I’m guessing more like 5 to 7 years
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7eight9
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 7eight9 »

Maybe it won't. For all we know we are entering a new normal.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
CZjc1330
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by CZjc1330 »

Too deep this time, too many will be unemployed, tourism/travel business will change dramatically = goodbye enormous cruise ships, and on and on. It will be a changed America.

So my guess is 5 years. 2025. I am buying mucho Total Market with that date in mind.
50ismygoal
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 50ismygoal »

June 30, 2020, around 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by rmelvey »

2025. I think we are in for a rough road ahead with large increases in unemployment, corporate and household balance sheets both underwater and with reduced income for both.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by jjface »

50ismygoal wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:07 pm June 30, 2020, around 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
No definitely more like 3pm Eastern.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by plog »

Be interesting to see if there was a thread like this in late 2007. I can't find anything--anyone know of one?
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by watchnerd »

April 16, 2029
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by rbaldini »

The long term exponential price growth of the SP 500 is about [EDIT] 7.9% per year (over the last 40 years). I have little reason to think the expectation is much higher or lower than that. So, if you do the math, that implies it will take about 4.3 years to get back. So let's say July of 2024.

Confidence interval? Huge. Let's just make it up: anywhere from 6 months to 15 years.
Last edited by rbaldini on Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:48 pm, edited 3 times in total.
GaryA505
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by GaryA505 »

1 to 10 years from now
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Dottie57 »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:44 pm Before November 8, 2022

or in the year before November 2024

j :happy
Agree with year before 2024.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 02nz »

January 20, 2021. :wink:
1130Super
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by 1130Super »

physixfan wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:46 pm People are too optimistic. I think it will take 10 years, so Feb 2030.
I’m thinking S&P could be 10k by 2030
Investor1212
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Investor1212 »

2040-2050
Xrayman69
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Xrayman69 »

Santa Claus rally December 2021
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HomerJ
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by HomerJ »

Some day.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Wiggums
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Wiggums »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:10 pmSome day.
+1
I love this response.

We need to see how long it takes to address the virus and the resulting economic damage and additional debt. I don’t share the view that the market with go right back to the highs anytime soon.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by milktoast »

Looking at my spreadsheet... before I retire. :-)
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Samosa22 »

Pikel wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:50 pm 10 year guess; annually
Earnings Growth = 3.5%
Dividend Yield = 2%
Speculative Yield = -2%

2404*(1+.035+.02-.02)^t = 3386

t = ln(3386/2404)/ln(1.035) = 10

April 2030

:(
A problem with your math; It assumes we have reached the bottom.
Lesson learned from 2008 financial crisis: "In the fury of the final hour, all correlations went to 1".
Samosa22
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Samosa22 »

The more relevant question (in terms of hitting a mark) seems to be when will S&P cross 20K, or even 15K?
Lesson learned from 2008 financial crisis: "In the fury of the final hour, all correlations went to 1".
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Monsterflockster »

Alex GR wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:32 pm On February 19th, 2020 (exactly one month ago), S&P was @ 3386, highest in history.
At the time of this writing, it is at 2404, a historical moment and a painful crash of 29% in 1 month.
Your best guess, WHEN will it reach that value again?
I'll start. My guess: April 2021.
Come on, it will be interesting. We can refer to this post in years to come and see who was closest :sharebeer

P.S. This is the first real crash for me. Dec 2018 I don't really view as a crash 'cause it was over before I noticed. In 2001/2002 I didn't have any money. In 2008 I didn't have any stock except some old Janus funds to the tune of $30k which I sold when the market started crashing and used as a down payment on a house.
About 1.5-2 years for new highs... but I’m guessing it will be 3200+ by the election.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

I think the pandemic will be cured very soon and we should be back stronger than ever come August 2020. :moneybag
Stay invested my friends.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by ge1 »

August 2026.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Ramjet »

June 2022
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by mrspock »

physixfan wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:46 pm People are too optimistic. I think it will take 10 years, so Feb 2030.
I see your pessimism and raise you.... by October 2020 :P .
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Patzer »

Nov 2022
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by BluesH »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:28 pm I think the pandemic will be cured very soon and we should be back stronger than ever come August 2020.
I think that there will be some experimental treatments that will lower the death rate, perhaps drastically, by mid to late summer. However, the pandemic won't be "cured" until there's a vaccine. Right now, that's looking like end of 2021, at the earliest.

My expectation is that both these events (treatment, vaccine) will be welcomed by stock market gains. But the first, new treatments, will likely not be enough to trigger a full recovery back to previous highs. That will take the announcement that a vaccine has been approved. Given that the announcement may precede actual deployment by a month or two, I'm saying Oct/Nov 2021.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by AK_Kiter »

It feels like we still have a ways to fall.. perhaps an additional 20-30% as the shutdown continues, layoffs mount and bankruptcies begin to work through the markets. But I believe there will be a strong response in the end due to ongoing stimulus and other societal factors (manufacturing returning to the US, for example).

If I had to guess, we hit bottom in 3Q 2020 with a slow, steady climb back (a la 2003-2007) returning to previous highs in June 2025.

It would be interesting to have someone better at math/statistical analysis than me compile a histogram of the responses by month/year, and the average response date.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MotoTrojan »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 pm April 16, 2029
Do you actually think so?
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

March 2022.

When it reaches 3000, we will see the flood of "should I sell stock as the market is overpriced " threads.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by watchnerd »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:14 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 pm April 16, 2029
Do you actually think so?
Yes, because it's my birthday that day.
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Danzangdc
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Danzangdc »

We'll get halfway there a couple days after an effective coronavirus treatment is announced. The rest will take until ...

MARCH 2021
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Brianmcg321
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by Brianmcg321 »

I can't wait for the ride back up.

Then we can start reading threads titled "I got out now I don't know when to get back in...help". And then we can all have a big laugh.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

Brianmcg321 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:33 pm I can't wait for the ride back up.

Then we can start reading threads titled "I got out now I don't know when to get back in...help". And then we can all have a big laugh.
This is the very reason I have stayed invested. In fact, adding to positions as much as I can!
Stay invested my friends.
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Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Post by MindBogler »

Brianmcg321 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:33 pm I can't wait for the ride back up.

Then we can start reading threads titled "I got out now I don't know when to get back in...help". And then we can all have a big laugh.
:sharebeer

We know they are coming!
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