indian86 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:27 pm
Ok, but please remember so far it appears 98.5% of those infected either never know it (beyond thinking they just have a cold) or are symptomatic to the point that they don't need hospitalization. This is not what the medical community call a "highly acute" disease. This isn't like getting typhoid or lymphoma. Now I understand that that means that they can still spread it, but it doesn't change the 98% number.
Where did you get those numbers?
The best numbers are coming out of Korea, which has done exhaustive testing and contact tracing, and thus looks like they have found closer to the full extent of the spread, as opposed to countries like the US that are basically only testing very sick people to confirm diagnosis. Korea's had a total death rate slightly under 0.1% (so far: 73 deaths out of 8000ish infected).
Then look at Italy. Their death rate matched other countries' at around 1% until they ran out of ICU capacity and had to start wartime triage. It caused their death rate to go from 1% to 5%. If we assume that the 1% Italy was measuring is actually 0.1% due to undertesting (and based on Korea's data), then the *real* death rate if we overwhelm hospitals is maybe 0.5%.
So we now think that maybe 40-70% of Americans are going to get this. If we don't make a really big deal about slowing it down, that's going to be 327m * 40-70% * 0.5% = 600k-1m Americans dead of this thing in the next few months. The flu kills far far less than that.
And that's before all the knock-on effects. It's a bad thing when your medical system is overflowing with viral epidemic patients. Better hope no one hasany other
medical issue for the next year that might be minor with excellent medical care but critical without. Because there won't be any spare capacity. And the risk of getting the virus through the medical system will be very high as well.
And why is everybody so freaked out about hospital beds? Can't we turn university dormitories or office buildings into clinics basically overnight? We do have a military not currently at war.
A measurement of hospital beds is kind of a shorthand for "quality intensive medical care". Yes, we can turn dormitories into clinics overnight, but we can't turn people into nurses or doctors overnight, nor can we supply those dormitories with ventilators because there aren't
ventilators. There aren't any restorative properties to occupying a bed in a dormitory that's been hastily converted to a hospital.