What does your Crystal Ball say?

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Kagord
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Kagord »

My magic 8 ball says "Concentrate and ask again"
cableguy
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by cableguy »

Our society cannot focus on one important issue for too long. Something else will steal the front page if this virus isn't killing thousands of people each day. By Easter Sunday the front page story will change. It will be something new. By 4Q 2020 stocks will be back. Modern medicine will figure this out. Rates will continue to stay low. We will get through this. We always do...
Caduceus
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Caduceus »

My crystal ball says "Happy Friday the 13th - Enjoy It While You Can".

He is naughty like that.
njdealguy
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by njdealguy »

My crystal ball says the stock market bottom will come by next month (Maybe 18k-20k range for the Dow) then start recovering with the warmer weather and then by the end of summer hopefully there will be enough development of vaccines/etc to hopefully mostly contain this.

Of course may be incorrect but based on the statistics I see, most of the worst outbreaks seem to be in countries with cooler weather (China/South Korea/Iran/Italy) and not so much in more predominantly warmer places like India (where it could possibly spread like crazy/dense population), Singapore, etc. Hoping 80-100 degree weather in many parts of world makes a big impact.
rich126
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by rich126 »

Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
hicabob
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by hicabob »

It's a little cloudy but it should be either a V,U,W or L recovery.
dustinst22
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by dustinst22 »

njdealguy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 am
most of the worst outbreaks seem to be in countries with cooler weather (China/South Korea/Iran/Italy) and not so much in more predominantly warmer places like India (where it could possibly spread like crazy/dense population), Singapore, etc. Hoping 80-100 degree weather in many parts of world makes a big impact.
I observed this too, I'm very hopeful this is accurate.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

FDA approved new rapid testing (10x faster) for US markets
-This is great news. Unfortunately, this is what will happen:

“CORONAVIRUS CONFIRMED CASES SKYROCKETING?!?” hysteria back in full swing

... dust settles ...

“Coronavirus death rates rapidly declining as majority of confirmed cases deemed mild”
deikel
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by deikel »

dustinst22 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:56 am
njdealguy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 am
most of the worst outbreaks seem to be in countries with cooler weather (China/South Korea/Iran/Italy) and not so much in more predominantly warmer places like India (where it could possibly spread like crazy/dense population), Singapore, etc. Hoping 80-100 degree weather in many parts of world makes a big impact.
I observed this too, I'm very hopeful this is accurate.
although not really known at this time, some scientist suggest it will make no difference and there will not be a summer slump like there is with the flu

...plus Italy and France are unusually warm this time of year already....so, no, its not a cold weather disease by any stretch...

...they don't even know why the flu usually recedes in summer....many theories, nothing proven at all.
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

deikel wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:09 pm
dustinst22 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:56 am
njdealguy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 am
most of the worst outbreaks seem to be in countries with cooler weather (China/South Korea/Iran/Italy) and not so much in more predominantly warmer places like India (where it could possibly spread like crazy/dense population), Singapore, etc. Hoping 80-100 degree weather in many parts of world makes a big impact.
I observed this too, I'm very hopeful this is accurate.
although not really known at this time, some scientist suggest it will make no difference and there will not be a summer slump like there is with the flu

...plus Italy and France are unusually warm this time of year already....so, no, its not a cold weather disease by any stretch...

...they don't even know why the flu usually recedes in summer....many theories, nothing proven at all.
https://italyexplained.com/traveling-to-italy-in-march/

https://weather-and-climate.com/average ... ris,France

Why bother with facts?

I’ll spare you the effort:

It’s cold in Italy in March (and oldest country in Europe with over 1/5 over 65)

In France, March is only slightly warmer than Dec/February and 1 of the coldest months in the country
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willthrill81
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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bluquark
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by bluquark »

huskerfan1414 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:07 pm Why cancel things so far out?
Because studies on the 1918 pandemic showed that US cities who closed schools before there were a lot of known cases in the local area had much reduced deaths compared to those who waited until the horse was out of the barn. See https://mobile.edweek.org/c.jsp?cid=259 ... F258D98AAA
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
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willthrill81
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
Maybe so. Those with that mindset have been proven wrong so far though. Eventually, everything will return to normal, but the question now is how long that will take.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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steve roy
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by steve roy »

We were at 72% fixed when this joy ride started; not even looking at portfolio right now. If P/Es go low enough plan to readjust to 60-65% fixed. Happily, we live on our retirement cash flows.

Our biggest concern is our kids' jobs which are being negatively impacted by the virus.
Last edited by steve roy on Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Chicken Little
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Chicken Little »

Fed throwing a lot at this right now, correct? Just like yesterday.

Will be interesting to see where it ends up.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:22 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
Maybe so. Those with that mindset have been proven wrong so far though. Eventually, everything will return to normal, but the question now is how long that will take.
This whole thing was a great opportunity (glass half full?) for people to truly assess people’s risk tolerance and A

Everyone wants to be 100% equity big shot when the markets are soaring. Excellent reminder of why you shouldn’t be anywhere near this as you near retirement.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Chicken Little wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:25 pm Fed throwing a lot at this right now, correct? Just like yesterday.

Will be interesting to see where it ends up.
Global markets will be pumped with fiscal stimulus.

FDA just approved rapid testing. President declaring national emergency (more of an administrative move just to free up funding at state/local levels - smart)

The world is not ending, buy the hysteria
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ruralavalon
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by ruralavalon »

My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs :( , will try my time machine and let you know what to expect :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
deikel
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by deikel »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:12 pm
deikel wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:09 pm
dustinst22 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:56 am
njdealguy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 am
most of the worst outbreaks seem to be in countries with cooler weather (China/South Korea/Iran/Italy) and not so much in more predominantly warmer places like India (where it could possibly spread like crazy/dense population), Singapore, etc. Hoping 80-100 degree weather in many parts of world makes a big impact.
I observed this too, I'm very hopeful this is accurate.
although not really known at this time, some scientist suggest it will make no difference and there will not be a summer slump like there is with the flu

...plus Italy and France are unusually warm this time of year already....so, no, its not a cold weather disease by any stretch...

...they don't even know why the flu usually recedes in summer....many theories, nothing proven at all.
https://italyexplained.com/traveling-to-italy-in-march/

https://weather-and-climate.com/average ... ris,France

Why bother with facts?

I’ll spare you the effort:

It’s cold in Italy in March (and oldest country in Europe with over 1/5 over 65)

In France, March is only slightly warmer than Dec/February and 1 of the coldest months in the country
Look at it relatively to the US or (Wuhan region of China) if you want to answer the question if the virus will be stopped by a spring in the US.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake

Ultimately we will know very soon since the southern part of the US has currently summer (relative to Wuhan, not relative to their summer) and the Northeast is currently out of its winter getting into the temp range of Wuhan/France/Italy
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.
Admiral
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Admiral »

IMO it will cause (or perhaps already is causing) a recession. You can't have this much economic disruption and not lose productivity.

But... so what? Recessions happen regularly, and don't last forever. I do think we might see more pain in the markets. But really we've just given up the last year's massive gains, not a whole lot more than that.

In the long run I hope this makes us better prepared for the next pandemic, because it will come.
rich126
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by rich126 »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
They've been pumping stimulus and so far that only is providing an opportunity to sell before it falls further. Sure there will be a floor and sure if you are in the early accumulation stage it may not matter. However, stocks are based on earnings and right now there are none in many sectors. And we are talking about months more so than weeks. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. The harsh reality is if a stock/fund falls 30% it needs to rise 45% to get back to where it was. The market was high previously so it might take a while. And the US is running uphill right now.

And while it is true most will survive, and the young may not get hit hard at all, the problem is having a large number of people sick at the same time, the hospitals are not able to handle a large outbreak. Read the northern Italy stores. And they have more hospital beds per 1,000 people than the US does.

And I'd prefer if I'm completely wrong since seeing people lose money and jobs is not good even if it isn't affecting me directly.

Everyone has a differing view. And mine is that it is better to be defensive than aggressive at this time. When there is an unknown medical event that is cancelling everything, it is best to wait and watch. It isn't as if one magical day the market will rise 20-30% and all will be pre-virus.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Admiral wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:33 pm IMO it will cause (or perhaps already is causing) a recession. You can't have this much economic disruption and not lose productivity.

But... so what? Recessions happen regularly, and don't last forever. I do think we might see more pain in the markets. But really we've just given up the last year's massive gains, not a whole lot more than that.

In the long run I hope this makes us better prepared for the next pandemic, because it will come.
I’m sure people will remain cool, calm, and collected as they gather all relevant information before acting during the next pandemic ...
Admiral
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Admiral »

rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:40 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
They've been pumping stimulus and so far that only is providing an opportunity to sell before it falls further. Sure there will be a floor and sure if you are in the early accumulation stage it may not matter. However, stocks are based on earnings and right now there are none in many sectors. And we are talking about months more so than weeks. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. The harsh reality is if a stock/fund falls 30% it needs to rise 45% to get back to where it was. The market was high previously so it might take a while. And the US is running uphill right now.

And while it is true most will survive, and the young may not get hit hard at all, the problem is having a large number of people sick at the same time, the hospitals are not able to handle a large outbreak. Read the northern Italy stores. And they have more hospital beds per 1,000 people than the US does.

And I'd prefer if I'm completely wrong since seeing people lose money and jobs is not good even if it isn't affecting me directly.

Everyone has a differing view. And mine is that it is better to be defensive than aggressive at this time. When there is an unknown medical event that is cancelling everything, it is best to wait and watch. It isn't as if one magical day the market will rise 20-30% and all will be pre-virus.
But what does that mean? Sell and not buy? Investors should just stick to their plan. If that means buying on a regular schedule, then do that. If they need to sell in order to have money to live, they should do that (because what other choice is there?)

Social distancing works. The question is, has it been implemented fast enough? Testing also helps. The question is, are there enough tests available, and is processing time sufficient. These are all unknowns.

But I don't believe the fundamentals of the economy have changed.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Admiral wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:46 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:40 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
They've been pumping stimulus and so far that only is providing an opportunity to sell before it falls further. Sure there will be a floor and sure if you are in the early accumulation stage it may not matter. However, stocks are based on earnings and right now there are none in many sectors. And we are talking about months more so than weeks. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. The harsh reality is if a stock/fund falls 30% it needs to rise 45% to get back to where it was. The market was high previously so it might take a while. And the US is running uphill right now.

And while it is true most will survive, and the young may not get hit hard at all, the problem is having a large number of people sick at the same time, the hospitals are not able to handle a large outbreak. Read the northern Italy stores. And they have more hospital beds per 1,000 people than the US does.

And I'd prefer if I'm completely wrong since seeing people lose money and jobs is not good even if it isn't affecting me directly.

Everyone has a differing view. And mine is that it is better to be defensive than aggressive at this time. When there is an unknown medical event that is cancelling everything, it is best to wait and watch. It isn't as if one magical day the market will rise 20-30% and all will be pre-virus.
But what does that mean? Sell and not buy? Investors should just stick to their plan. If that means buying on a regular schedule, then do that. If they need to sell in order to have money to live, they should do that (because what other choice is there?)

Social distancing works. The question is, has it been implemented fast enough? Testing also helps. The question is, are there enough tests available, and is processing time sufficient. These are all unknowns.

But I don't believe the fundamentals of the economy have changed.
Several social events among friends have been cancelled ... it’s definitely in full effect in my inner circles

While I wish no harm on anyone, I’m thrilled as I didn’t want to do half of those things.

Good luck everyone!
rich126
Posts: 2007
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by rich126 »

Admiral wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:46 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:40 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
rich126 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife.
I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful of 'throwing safe money at a dropping asset', we may see the other shoe drop.
Or we’ll see people come to their senses, fiscal stimulus pumped into global markets, and those that didn’t lose their minds come out quite profitable as the markets get back to normal / new highs

If you are 80 years old with other health issues, you have an 85% chance of “surviving”. This hysteria is mind blowing at this point.
They've been pumping stimulus and so far that only is providing an opportunity to sell before it falls further. Sure there will be a floor and sure if you are in the early accumulation stage it may not matter. However, stocks are based on earnings and right now there are none in many sectors. And we are talking about months more so than weeks. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. The harsh reality is if a stock/fund falls 30% it needs to rise 45% to get back to where it was. The market was high previously so it might take a while. And the US is running uphill right now.

And while it is true most will survive, and the young may not get hit hard at all, the problem is having a large number of people sick at the same time, the hospitals are not able to handle a large outbreak. Read the northern Italy stores. And they have more hospital beds per 1,000 people than the US does.

And I'd prefer if I'm completely wrong since seeing people lose money and jobs is not good even if it isn't affecting me directly.

Everyone has a differing view. And mine is that it is better to be defensive than aggressive at this time. When there is an unknown medical event that is cancelling everything, it is best to wait and watch. It isn't as if one magical day the market will rise 20-30% and all will be pre-virus.
But what does that mean? Sell and not buy? Investors should just stick to their plan. If that means buying on a regular schedule, then do that. If they need to sell in order to have money to live, they should do that (because what other choice is there?)

Social distancing works. The question is, has it been implemented fast enough? Testing also helps. The question is, are there enough tests available, and is processing time sufficient. These are all unknowns.

But I don't believe the fundamentals of the economy have changed.
I'm not a fan of making a detailed plan and sticking to it. In life you adjust to situations, any plan to me is only a guideline. I would never sit down and say I'm going to be 60/40 and leave it there with yearly balancing. Just not my thing. Maybe (likely) it is the best way but just not me. Just like I don't like mutual funds and prefer stocks.

Right now we are in a very unusual situation and I prefer to adjust and hold less stocks than I would in a more normal situation. Because of world political events, I started cutting back last year. I'm more concerned about a severe prolong drop than missing a 10-20% pop.

I prefer this quote -
“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.
huskerfan1414
Posts: 156
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by huskerfan1414 »

bluquark wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:19 pm
huskerfan1414 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:07 pm Why cancel things so far out?
Because studies on the 1918 pandemic showed that US cities who closed schools before there were a lot of known cases in the local area had much reduced deaths compared to those who waited until the horse was out of the barn. See https://mobile.edweek.org/c.jsp?cid=259 ... F258D98AAA
....You, also, are creating a straw man.

I'm not saying "don't cancel anything."

I'm saying, if an event is in late June, it's okay to wait until at least a month before to cancel it. We need to stop acting like we have to cancel everything NOW regardless of how far out it is.
This is creating more unnecessary and hurtful panic to millions of people.

Does this statement make sense to you? Because this is basically what we're saying...."Well, they cancelled the June events two weeks before they were to happen instead of three months before they were to happen. This caused a rise in the death toll. Had those events been cancelled much, much sooner than they were, there would be less exposure and death." :confused
The more I learn, the dumber I feel.
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bluquark
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by bluquark »

Since those events aren't going to happen, isn't it better to give people a heads-up as long in advance as possible so they can change their plans and avoid buying/refund hotel tickets?

Misleading people about what we're in for with a false normalcy is just going to cause a sharper fear reaction later because of the lack of trust. That's why China saw an especially strong panic reaction: the initial lies.
Last edited by bluquark on Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:47 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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ionball
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by ionball »

I view things big picture as reasonably unpredictable.
Alan S.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Alan S. »

Doctors are in total charge of this crisis along with CEOs paralyzed by litigation exposures. There is no precedent for how the dominos will fall for this crisis model.

If we keep up this panic driven behavior for another 3 weeks, the death rate for heart attacks, strokes, and other medical issues caused by high blood pressure from job loss, massive social dislocation, etc will far exceed corona deaths. Once the rollout of collateral damages becomes more obvious there will be more voices warning about the consequences of over reaction. It won't take long.

If we were that dedicated to avoiding all premature deaths, we would have devised a way to keep impaired drivers off the roads a half century ago.
mikefixac
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by mikefixac »

The death rate for the virus is between 1%-3.5%. The death rate for arterial disease (heart attack/strokes) is over 50%. For one there's a known cure, but because of the time frame of death, it's largely ignored.
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ram
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by ram »

My crystal ball says:
Less than 10,000 people will die in US from COVID 19.
>80% of the deaths will be in people >67 years of age.

10,000 deaths /330 million means 1/33,000 or 3/100,000.
In a typical year there are 800 deaths/100,000 in US (approx).
COVID19 deaths will account for <0.5% of all deaths in 2020.

By summer 2021 federal funded research will look for antibodies to corona virus in the general population.
About 5 to 10% of the general population will demonstrate antibodies to corona virus suggesting that that many people in the general population were at some time exposed to a corona virus. The tests will never be specific enough to say that the viral exposure was specifically to COVID 19 virus.

Sometime by 01.01.2021 there will be a vaccine available for COVID 19. It will initially be provided to health care workers, then to medicare age people and people with chronic diseases and by december 2021 there will be enough for anybody who wants it. Some people will refuse to take it even when the government will provide it for free.

By March 2021 almost all governments across the world will agree that the virus has spread extensively and that travel restrictions are futile and they will be lifted. (They will get diluted much earlier)

On 12.31.2020 SPX will be at 70 to 80% of the level of 1.1.20.

By 12.31. 2021 it will be at 80 to 90% of 1.1.20

and sometime in 2022 it will go beyond what it was on 1.1. 20.

By 2022 we will have accepted COVID 19 as one more member of the Corona virus family and we will have learned to coexist with it. There will hardly be any mention of it in the lay press.
Ram
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

ram wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 pm My crystal ball says:
Less than 10,000 people will die in US from COVID 19.
>80% of the deaths will be in people >67 years of age.

10,000 deaths /330 million means 1/33,000 or 3/100,000.
In a typical year there are 800 deaths/100,000 in US (approx).
COVID19 deaths will account for <0.5% of all deaths in 2020.

By summer 2021 federal funded research will look for antibodies to corona virus in the general population.
About 5 to 10% of the general population will demonstrate antibodies to corona virus suggesting that that many people in the general population were at some time exposed to a corona virus. The tests will never be specific enough to say that the viral exposure was specifically to COVID 19 virus.

Sometime by 01.01.2021 there will be a vaccine available for COVID 19. It will initially be provided to health care workers, then to medicare age people and people with chronic diseases and by december 2021 there will be enough for anybody who wants it. Some people will refuse to take it even when the government will provide it for free.

By March 2021 almost all governments across the world will agree that the virus has spread extensively and that travel restrictions are futile and they will be lifted. (They will get diluted much earlier)

On 12.31.2020 SPX will be at 70 to 80% of the level of 1.1.20.

By 12.31. 2021 it will be at 80 to 90% of 1.1.20

and sometime in 2022 it will go beyond what it was on 1.1. 20.

By 2022 we will have accepted COVID 19 as one more member of the Corona virus family and we will have learned to coexist with it. There will hardly be any mention of it in the lay press.
Thanks ram. I hope you are right.

I read this article in the NYT which had more dismal numbers :shock: : I don't know over what time period this was calculated however ("worst case").

"Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c ... e=Homepage
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

ram wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 pm My crystal ball says:
Less than 10,000 people will die in US from COVID 19.
I'm afraid that your crystal ball's estimate is far too low.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:52 pm Looking to see how people think about the market dynamics currently. I keep reading about how the "market experts" believe the framework of our economy is good, and these intermittent strains (ie, covid-19, oil conflict, elections..etc) cause transient dips in market performance which bring the markets eventually back to the mean (which is usually higher than the preceding period's mean). I'm tracking this can be loaded question, but I'm looking to see how people view things big picture with evidence to develop a reasonable guess at how the market may perform.
I don't have a crystal ball, I have an investment policy statement.
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StevieG72
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by StevieG72 »

Go buy toilet paper!
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

StevieG72 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:46 pm Go buy toilet paper!
Around here, that ship has sailed for now. It's produced domestically, so stores should be resupplied as long as trucks keep moving, but the real concern is items that are shipped from other nations.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by skeptical1 »

One who predicts the future is a fool.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by bikeeagle1 »

Emotion-driven panic moves like we've seen lately remind me of how people drive. All you have to do to see the insanity of human behavior is to either watch the stock market, or to set your cruise control on the speed limit and watch the view out of your windshield.

If you have panicked and sold during all this, you are probably the type who weaves all over the lanes and tries to go faster than the general flow of traffic. If you are the type who sets your cruise control and leaves well enough alone, then you probably haven't done much in the markets lately, other than to rebalance a little, or to pick up a few bargains with any cash laying around.

Think long term. How do you want to be positioned in a few years when SPX is at 4000? How about when it's at 5000? Take steps now to get ready for those days, because they are coming.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JHU ALmuni »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:13 pm Mine says dow jones will go under 18k by the end of next week.
Looks like my crystal ball might actually work this time :shock:
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:52 pm Mine says

"More volatility likely."
Looks like that crystal ball may be a keeper.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Cubicle »

My crystal ball wrote:You're an idiot for asking me this. This answer would have been guaranteed to be correct. So you should have asked 'what are the winning lotto numbers for the next year'. Now put me back in the closet.
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by nedsaid »

My crystal ball is experiencing technical difficulties. Please stand by.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Tigermoose »

We are all doing to die!, so it is time to buy!
Institutions matter
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nedsaid
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by nedsaid »

Recalculating.
A fool and his money are good for business.
anoop
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by anoop »

My crystal ball says market continues to fall until fed acquires new powers from congress which allow it to buy corporate bonds and stocks. If you even hear about that bill going to congress, that would be the time to go all in, no need to wait until it passes because it will. At that point the fed will have unlimited power and complete control over the market from interest rates to stock and bond prices. It won't be a free market anymore.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by APX32 »

bikeeagle1 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:24 pm Emotion-driven panic moves like we've seen lately remind me of how people drive. All you have to do to see the insanity of human behavior is to either watch the stock market, or to set your cruise control on the speed limit and watch the view out of your windshield.

If you have panicked and sold during all this, you are probably the type who weaves all over the lanes and tries to go faster than the general flow of traffic. If you are the type who sets your cruise control and leaves well enough alone, then you probably haven't done much in the markets lately, other than to rebalance a little, or to pick up a few bargains with any cash laying around.

Think long term. How do you want to be positioned in a few years when SPX is at 4000? How about when it's at 5000? Take steps now to get ready for those days, because they are coming.
How can you be so sure about SPX 4000 or 5000? What if it never comes? What were the Japanese investors thinking when the Nikkei was approaching 40,000? Positioning for 50-60k? 30 years later, it hasn’t even sniffed those all time highs.

We are not going to see 3000 for a long time.
20% SPY | 12% GLD | 68% Cash
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