What does your Crystal Ball say?

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Mode32
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What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Mode32 »

Looking to see how people think about the market dynamics currently. I keep reading about how the "market experts" believe the framework of our economy is good, and these intermittent strains (ie, covid-19, oil conflict, elections..etc) cause transient dips in market performance which bring the markets eventually back to the mean (which is usually higher than the preceding period's mean). I'm tracking this can be loaded question, but I'm looking to see how people view things big picture with evidence to develop a reasonable guess at how the market may perform.
KBREAMK
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by KBREAMK »

Nobody knows nothin.
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HomerJ
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by HomerJ »

Reply hazy, try again.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
GaryA505
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by GaryA505 »

My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
7eight9
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by 7eight9 »

There have been reported sightings of Jerome Powell lurking around the punch bowl with a bottle of Everclear hidden under his jacket. Or maybe it is just water (ref Mar 3).
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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watchnerd
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by watchnerd »

My crystal ball says the weak hands are quivering.

An increase in threads on BH of people who are shocked that this or that asset went down.

People are being reminded that in order to get the risk premium, you have to take risks.

I give it another 2-4 weeks before we start getting threads about being out of stocks forever.
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djpeteski
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by djpeteski »

In the future, markets will go up and they will go down.

This is a time that stocks return to their rightful owners. JP Morgan.
GAAP
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by GAAP »

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near
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Raymond
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Raymond »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:56 pm Reply hazy, try again.
"Concentrate and ask again."
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GoldenFinch
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by GoldenFinch »

Mine says, “Holy Cow!” and I say, “Yikes!”
RJC
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by RJC »

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” -Warren Buffet
Alex GR
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Alex GR »

Reading all the articles that say U.S. economy is healthy, "no fundamental reasons for the crash so It'll come back quickly", virus is temporary,etc. sure helps stay the course.

Just read a long article that explains how in 2008/2009 there were valid reasons for the crash (banks gave out loans people couldn't repay, packaged and sold them as securities, real estate prices crashed, people stopped paying the mortgage, everything crashed) whereas now there aren't any valid reasons for the crash except the virus.
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

GoldenFinch wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:52 pm Mine says, “Holy Cow!” and I say, “Yikes!”
Ditto :shock:
bloom2708
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by bloom2708 »

The stoppage/slow down of regular business is valid.

In 08/09 business travelers kept on traveling and spending.

Maybe a bright side people (while spending less) could pay down some debt. That is also unlikely to happen.

I know nothing.
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:02 pm My crystal ball says the weak hands are quivering.

An increase in threads on BH of people who are shocked that this or that asset went down.

People are being reminded that in order to get the risk premium, you have to take risks.

I give it another 2-4 weeks before we start getting threads about being out of stocks forever.
This is a good reminder re: the risk premium.

For me, part of the issue is the velocity of the correction in conjunction with the crisis actions around the world and our local cities, states and governments wrt COVID-19.

This will be a certain chapter for future history books.
7eight9
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by 7eight9 »

No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States. We have the best economy, the most advanced health care, and the most talented doctors, scientists and researchers anywhere in the world. Our future remains brighter than anyone can imagine.

I think my crystal ball got a virus when I took it to Washington (D.C.). :happy
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bhtomj
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by bhtomj »

Last week it said look at the 1 year chart. Today it says look at the 5 year.
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

bhtomj wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:40 pm Last week it said look at the 1 year chart. Today it says look at the 5 year.
Thank you! I've been doing the same thing LOL. :happy
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VeganBH
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by VeganBH »

I've been considering moving a good % of my non-taxable PF out of VBTLX (given the ETF equivalent was down over 5% today), and an added margin of safety couldn't hurt (nearing retirement).
Crystall ball said: Signs point to yes :P

So, I casually tried to log onto the State of California's 401K system from 30 min. from the market close, and..........
NADA! The system let me down - just wouldn't let me access my account (or did it do me a favor? time will tell!).
One of the largest(a guess) Finance "institutes" in Calif. had a major failure - at least for me, today! I'm getting more worried about the situation.
Thinking of going to the bank to get a bit of :moneybag now.
Oy vey.

Handy for times like now: http://www.ask8ball.net/
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fortfun
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by fortfun »

Recession for 3-5 years.

People get used to this new normal and slowly get back into the market in 3-6 months.

Market fully recovers in 5 years.

I'm sure I'm completely wrong but that's my crystal ball :)
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

It says don't do anything, just stand there! Today I stood, if it goes down tomorrow, I will hold my nose and buy again! (If it goes up tomorrow, I will still be buying, this week alone there has been plenty of spending in the economy that everyone selling mistakenly thinks is crashing, oops!).
Last edited by Grt2bOutdoors on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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willthrill81
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

Mine says

"More volatility likely."
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Uniballer
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Uniballer »

Mine says, "Battery Low". It is totally transparent and there is no obvious battery or access door. What do I do now?
Last edited by Uniballer on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dave55
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Dave55 »

Recession and market down for 12-24 months. Now for my ethical speech: I could be wrong.


Dave
deikel
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by deikel »

GaryA505 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 pm My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
No, not yet, not enough dead people yet and not enough painful countermeasures yet - will panic in 5-10 days - 2 weeks the latest, S+P drop down to 2000, then its time to start buying and bugging out to the cabin for the summer...
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

deikel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 pm
GaryA505 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 pm My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
No, not yet, not enough dead people yet and not enough painful countermeasures yet - will panic in 5-10 days - 2 weeks the latest, S+P drop down to 2000, then its time to start buying and bugging out to the cabin for the summer...
According to some paper, they say we are 11.5 days behind Italy, so I'll take your two week bet. The really sad thing is we are talking about the markets while the fear alone is making many people physically ill.
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willthrill81
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

deikel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 pm
GaryA505 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 pm My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
No, not yet, not enough dead people yet and not enough painful countermeasures yet - will panic in 5-10 days - 2 weeks the latest, S+P drop down to 2000, then its time to start buying and bugging out to the cabin for the summer...
I'm inclined to agree. If this was full-blown panic mode, stocks would be down more like 50% from the high, not 27%.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
friar1610
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by friar1610 »

Mine says "Rebalance Judiciously". It does not define "judiciously".
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JHU ALmuni
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JHU ALmuni »

Mine says dow jones will go under 18k by the end of next week.
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:52 pm Looking to see how people think about the market dynamics currently. I keep reading about how the "market experts" believe the framework of our economy is good, and these intermittent strains (ie, covid-19, oil conflict, elections..etc) cause transient dips in market performance which bring the markets eventually back to the mean (which is usually higher than the preceding period's mean). I'm tracking this can be loaded question, but I'm looking to see how people view things big picture with evidence to develop a reasonable guess at how the market may perform.
Fiscal stimulus will be pumped throughout global markets, hysteria will die down over a "pandemic" that essentially leaves 80% feeling fine/common cold symptoms ... with a very small portion of the population high risk ... and a very small portion of that high risk population dying

the seasonal flu has currently killed 30,000 more people than this world-ending coronavirus - where's the hysteria over that? Oh wait, it's not new so people don't care.

China is back up and running and expected to be operating at full capacity by May/June. italy is a mess in part because it has a significantly high percentage of elderly in the population.

The world is not ending. In 6 months people will go back to being obsessed with the Kardashians ... this hysteria is absolutely ridiculous.
Normchad
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Normchad »

Nobody knows anything. And I'm no better.

But I'll play along. The US equity index will be flat for the year. i.e. the S&P will finish the year about where it started the year.

But I don't know anything.....
turk1233
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by turk1233 »

"The future ain't what it used to be"
nguy44
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by nguy44 »

If my crystal ball worked, the last thing I would do is tell other people what it said. :D

However, IMHO I believe this volatility will last beyond the presidential election. Not trying to be anything but objective here. With the various sporting/large events/colleges cancelled/postponed likely though May, that will weigh on folks mind and continue to add to the uncertainty. Then 1Q earnings come out in April and 2Q earnings in June, and I do not believe the market is taking those into account just yet. Even if the pandemic seems better contained say by June or July, the political cycle will keep the focus on it, and with an election coming that will continue the uncertainly, from an emotional standpoint at the very least.

Once things settle down, the recovery back to the recent highs is probably 3-5 year process.
oysterboy
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by oysterboy »

My crystal ball has not seen circumstances like this in its 50 years of advising me on investment matters. As someone above wrote, it is the accelerated downdraft that is hard to understand. There will be some blood let, no question about that, in the highly-leveraged industries, and a temporary reduction in earnings market-wide. But my crystal ball is telling me to proceed with rebalancing, which I did today in a significant amount, and keep a little dry powder for a further decline. But, I think when the virus appears to be contained, the market will respond in a solid fashion over the next couple of years. And that will be fine. I think this perspective has a precisely 50% chance of being correct, but I like it.
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fortfun
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by fortfun »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:16 pm
Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:52 pm Looking to see how people think about the market dynamics currently. I keep reading about how the "market experts" believe the framework of our economy is good, and these intermittent strains (ie, covid-19, oil conflict, elections..etc) cause transient dips in market performance which bring the markets eventually back to the mean (which is usually higher than the preceding period's mean). I'm tracking this can be loaded question, but I'm looking to see how people view things big picture with evidence to develop a reasonable guess at how the market may perform.
Fiscal stimulus will be pumped throughout global markets, hysteria will die down over a "pandemic" that essentially leaves 80% feeling fine/common cold symptoms ... with a very small portion of the population high risk ... and a very small portion of that high risk population dying

the seasonal flu has currently killed 30,000 more people than this world-ending coronavirus - where's the hysteria over that? Oh wait, it's not new so people don't care.

China is back up and running and expected to be operating at full capacity by May/June. italy is a mess in part because it has a significantly high percentage of elderly in the population.

The world is not ending. In 6 months people will go back to being obsessed with the Kardashians ... this hysteria is absolutely ridiculous.
I for one, do not think the "hysteria," as you call it, is ridiculous. Of course, I have loved ones in the compromised age group. Maybe that's the difference.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/c ... rc=nl_most

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ed/607807/
Last edited by fortfun on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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fortfun
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by fortfun »

oysterboy wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:34 pm My crystal ball has not seen circumstances like this in its 50 years of advising me on investment matters. As someone above wrote, it is the accelerated downdraft that is hard to understand. There will be some blood let, no question about that, in the highly-leveraged industries, and a temporary reduction in earnings market-wide. But my crystal ball is telling me to proceed with rebalancing, which I did today in a significant amount, and keep a little dry powder for a further decline. But, I think when the virus appears to be contained, the market will respond in a solid fashion over the next couple of years. And that will be fine. I think this perspective has a precisely 50% chance of being correct, but I like it.
It doesn't sound like this virus will ever be contained but I do suspect that we will learn to live with it, just as we have the common cold and the flu. Hopefully, they will have more hospital beds and ventilators to accommodate flu and corona virus next winter.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Dottie57 »

My crystal ball is not functional, but I will guess. I think people are in panic node and I expect they will be until the U.S. is able to test everyone with symptoms and that widespread precautions are taken. I am thinking 6 months of panic.

My 88 yo Mom has told me Polio. In her area swimming pools, movie theaters etc were closed down. She says people were extremely fearful. Sounds like today.

On a cheerier note. Mayo Clinic has a test that will be used for covid-19. At least two other labs are working on similar ( Quest labs and Labcorp).

Story on Minneapolis Star Tribune.

http://www.startribune.com/mayo-clinic- ... 568741482/
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Atomic
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by Atomic »

Buy VTI every tuesday.
ruhigste
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by ruhigste »

My crystal ball says to hang on to my shares. The market will bottom out when people like us stop selling shares. I don't need to spend by selling shares at a big loss now, so I'm not going to. If the shares all become worthless, we're toast, but if the market bottoms out before then, there's a chance some share prices will start to rise, and we could come out of this OK, after a time. It's happened before. Once more into the breach, lads (and ladies)! Screw your courage to the sticking point!
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1789
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by 1789 »

We are going down. At least 20-30% more to go according to my crystal ball. This is that famous year people were talking about. I wish everyone good luck.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JonnyDVM »

deikel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 pm
GaryA505 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 pm My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
No, not yet, not enough dead people yet and not enough painful countermeasures yet - will panic in 5-10 days - 2 weeks the latest, S+P drop down to 2000, then its time to start buying and bugging out to the cabin for the summer...
This is panic level one. Level two is when a celebrity/congressman/senator dies. Level three is when the national guard is in the streets and we’re all on home quarantine. Let’s hope it stays at 1.

I said 45%. I think I’m going to be close.
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huskerfan1414
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by huskerfan1414 »

The panic is ridiculous. And its making everything worse. They will use this era in the history books of “why you dont jump the gun and panic”.

They are cancelling sporting events as far out as late June. The college world series in Omaha for late June has been cancelled by the NCAA. I know this isn't a sports forum, but living near Omaha I understand the economic impact and this cancel stuff is going on everywhere. I hope they don't cancel olympic events like trials nationwide.
It seems premature to do this. Why cancel things so far out?
Lots, lots of jobs will be lost. Economy will tank. Buddy if mine just let go 50 of his employees. Had to.

I’m not smart enough to have a precise crystal ball, but I was thinking about buying yesterday. Now I’m not, and don’t think I will begin easing in until May, getting more aggressive in July as long as football season is a go.
The more I learn, the dumber I feel.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by huskerfan1414 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm
deikel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 pm
GaryA505 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 pm My crystal ball says the stock market is in a full-blown panic mode.
No, not yet, not enough dead people yet and not enough painful countermeasures yet - will panic in 5-10 days - 2 weeks the latest, S+P drop down to 2000, then its time to start buying and bugging out to the cabin for the summer...
This is panic level one. Level two is when a celebrity/congressman/senator dies. Level three is when the national guard is in the streets and we’re all on home quarantine. Let’s hope it stays at 1.

I said 45%. I think I’m going to be close.
It says a lot about our current culture when the stock market is partially dependent on whether or not Tom Hanks dies. I agree with you.
The more I learn, the dumber I feel.
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by willthrill81 »

nguy44 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:26 pm If my crystal ball worked, the last thing I would do is tell other people what it said.
They wouldn't believe you if it did.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by abuss368 »

No one knows!
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JamalJones
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by JamalJones »

fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:48 pm Recession for 3-5 years.

People get used to this new normal and slowly get back into the market in 3-6 months.

Market fully recovers in 5 years.

I'm sure I'm completely wrong but that's my crystal ball :)
Hmmmmmmm... You got me curious.

“Panic of 1873 and the Long Depression“ — 5 years and 5 months

“1815–21 depression“ — ~6 years

“ Panic of 1785” — ~4 years

“ Copper Panic of 1789” — ~4 years

Some others for three years or so, Great Depression and the one after WWI.

Interesting....
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fortfun
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by fortfun »

JamalJones wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:34 pm
fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:48 pm Recession for 3-5 years.

People get used to this new normal and slowly get back into the market in 3-6 months.

Market fully recovers in 5 years.

I'm sure I'm completely wrong but that's my crystal ball :)
Hmmmmmmm... You got me curious.

“Panic of 1873 and the Long Depression“ — 5 years and 5 months

“1815–21 depression“ — ~6 years

“ Panic of 1785” — ~4 years

“ Copper Panic of 1789” — ~4 years

Some others for three years or so, Great Depression and the one after WWI.

Interesting....
I'm planning to retire in about 5 years, so probably wishful thinking more than anything else :) I sure hope the S&P gets back up to 3,300 by then!
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

huskerfan1414 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:07 pm The panic is ridiculous. And its making everything worse. They will use this era in the history books of “why you dont jump the gun and panic”.

They are cancelling sporting events as far out as late June. The college world series in Omaha for late June has been cancelled by the NCAA. I know this isn't a sports forum, but living near Omaha I understand the economic impact and this cancel stuff is going on everywhere. I hope they don't cancel olympic events like trials nationwide.
It seems premature to do this. Why cancel things so far out?
Lots, lots of jobs will be lost. Economy will tank. Buddy if mine just let go 50 of his employees. Had to.

I’m not smart enough to have a precise crystal ball, but I was thinking about buying yesterday. Now I’m not, and don’t think I will begin easing in until May, getting more aggressive in July as long as football season is a go.
Thank you.

If only society was capable of hearing “take some precautions” and not instantly whip itself into a frenzy

You should literally be doing everything you should’ve already been doing (wash hands, cover coughs, stay home if feeling ill) and lived life.

The hysteria over this is absolutely ridiculous
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by LAFiddler »

More pain incoming.


Keep buying anyway
BoggledHead2
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Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Global rally’s today, interesting since “Doomsday Friday’s” has been the theme lately
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