Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

[fizxman]

I'm buying as much as I can. The only thing I'm worried about is where to get more cash to buy more if the markets drop another 5-10%.

[dru808]

i dont even care, won’t care till I’m 5 years out from retirement.

Is your plan to be 100% stock until you're 5 years out?

No

[Toons]

Yawn

I wish I could yawn like this! I am very disappointed, but have not done anything, yes I have done nothing. Just disappointed to lose so much....

The market does a marvelous job of forcing the weak hands out

[heyyou]

Ignorance is bliss. I check my balances ...... every month when the statements arrive via snail mail.

With 40 years of stock market exposure, I've seen "It will fluctuate" numerous times.
My not-enough pension is almost matched by my age 70 SS starting this month, which together are enough in my low cost area. My spending method is using my RMD % on the entire portfolio, so my former 40% in bond index funds is likely near a dozen years of portfolio withdrawals these days, since the RMD method is an annually increased, longevity boosted % of each previous year's ending balance.

[TomatoTomahto]

We are staying the course. Aside from some TLH, not selling or buying.

We have lost a stunning amount of money on paper. Nevertheless, our concerns are, in order:
1. Our health and the health of others. Btw, pets can get this virus
.
.
.
8. DW’s job
9. Our portfolio

[Kagord]

I thought the market way overreacted in 2008, but I learned not to underestimate the stampede effect, or overestimate my ability to predict the turning point, so the only market timing I'm doing is dabbling around the edges.

Subjectively, how does this market feel like when compared to crashes you've been through? Does it feel like 1987, 1998, 2008, etc.? I know no one can time the bottom - i'm just curious about the subjective experience because this seems like one of the steepest, if not the steepest, market drop in history.

1987, This was a college inheritance mutual fund impact to me (an old school Magellan mutual fund, my father liked it) I was in college, I had to go from a part time job to a full time job to continue (min wage jobs were hard to find, I was lucky to finish college).
2000, Gut wrenching, more shock that you couldn't buy IPOs (or when companies added .com) and double your money anymore. Just a correction reaction to irrational exuberance.
2008, I had concerns the banking system would falter, every night on the news was feds storming and closing banks. Would the USD collapse, it wasn't out of the question at that time.

This one feels closet to 2008 to me, it was similar with the big swings. It's uncertainty that causes the markets to do this, no way to model or estimate this, finance people are not scientists or psychologists, and are trying to compare this to completely different events. Uncertainty with a virus that doesn't let people be in close proximity to each other (if they don't want their healthcare infrastructure to be overrun), and it's impacting all humans on the planet. So yeah, not only the market, but how we live our lives, and subsequent health impacts.

Foolishly predicting this gets as worse as 2008, maybe worse, then a cure, then we recover. I'm sure there's a myriad of viewpoints here, from "the flu is worse", to, perhaps a few SHTF.

[ginrummy]

I shifted from taking dividends to reinvesting them.

[Godot]

I honestly cannot understand panic selling

I don't like watching the market go down like this one bit

But the further it drops the more I know I'm not selling and locking in a 20+ percent loss

Why do you think it's panic selling?

Panic selling: "The selling activity is problematic because the investor is selling in reaction to emotion and fear, rather than evaluating the fundamentals."

Trading was halted today literally for this very reason

I get the buy and hold mantra, but it might very well be that investors are in fact evaluating the fundamentals and their evaluation tells them to sell.

[Caduceus]

This one feels closet to 2008 to me, it was similar with the big swings. It's uncertainty that causes the markets to do this, no way to model or estimate this, finance people are not scientists or psychologists, and are comparing to different events.

I think when this is over, it'd be interesting to look at what part computerized trading had a role to play in this volatility. I just read a paper that the vast majority of retail investors (33% of the market) are buying stocks, not selling them. Which means that, on balance, a great deal of the selling is being done by institutions, and all at the same time. I think a lot of these funds, which control billions and billions of dollars, are quite capable of completely capturing trading activity with their momentum-driven strategies whilst retail investors stay put and do nothing (Vanguard says that 99% of its investors have done nothing on a typical trading day during this crash).

So I wonder if when all this is said and done, this is not just a story about the coronavirus and oil crash, but also a story about the rise of fund management firms with their complex models and black boxes and algorithms, resulting in sudden spikes of volatillity either because something was wrong about their original models or they are trying to take advantage of the volatility and in doing so exarcerbating the trends.

[Ramjet]

I honestly cannot understand panic selling

I don't like watching the market go down like this one bit

But the further it drops the more I know I'm not selling and locking in a 20+ percent loss

Why do you think it's panic selling?

Panic selling: "The selling activity is problematic because the investor is selling in reaction to emotion and fear, rather than evaluating the fundamentals."

Trading was halted today literally for this very reason

I get the buy and hold mantra, but it might very well be that investors are in fact evaluating the fundamentals and their evaluation tells them to sell.

They all did it at once?

[VeganBH]

We are nibbling a bit on VTSAX, per our plan to increase our stock AA from 25-30 (up to 35)%.
But, we are second guessing our Bond allocation which is 50% (PF is: 25:50:25 (S:B:MM/Cash) - an is more volatile than we'd like (expected?). Maybe move some bonds to MM...
My earlier post: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=307114

Should we move ~25% of bonds to Vanguard MM? My magic 8-ball now says: "Signs point to yes"
http://www.ask8ball.net/

[Godot]

I honestly cannot understand panic selling

I don't like watching the market go down like this one bit

But the further it drops the more I know I'm not selling and locking in a 20+ percent loss

Why do you think it's panic selling?

Panic selling: "The selling activity is problematic because the investor is selling in reaction to emotion and fear, rather than evaluating the fundamentals."

Trading was halted today literally for this very reason

I get the buy and hold mantra, but it might very well be that investors are in fact evaluating the fundamentals and their evaluation tells them to sell. There's a lot more than simply emotion and fear out there, though they no doubt play a role. There's no vaccine for a rapidly spreading virus, various travel bans and bans against public gatherings, and numerous governments that have declared a state of emergency.

[M.Lee]

I don't know if this counts as staying the course, but I am throwing huge amounts of cash in the market and watching it evaporate!

I was 100% cash - 0% stocks at the start of 2020, and have been throwing money into stocks. It is strangely exciting - in a masochistic sort of way - to see your money "disappear" as quickly as you invest it. All the money I invested in mid-February is already sitting at -25% losses, so I really don't know how the folks who were at 100% equities are handling it.

To be honest, when markets go down so sharply in a short period of time, I think panic has taken over.

Ouch Caduceus. I'm staying the course sitting in 100% cash since before the big drop. I'm an active trader and I had some issues that caused me to divert from paying attention to my portfolio which is the reason I liquidated. I intended to get back in and then this fiasco started. I may not be earning any interest, but at least I can sleep at night. I'm so very tempted to buy, but I'm sitting on my hands.

[Gnirk]

I don't look. It's all monopoly money anyway, until I need it, and I am focusing on how to flatten the curve of hospital strain and educate people as much as I can while isolating as much as possible.

This, too, shall pass, but I'm worried about the effects of the pandemic on those less fortunate in funds and health, and those who are frightened and have few options.

+1

[tsewell10]

I don't look. It's all monopoly money anyway, until I need it, and I am focusing on how to flatten the curve of hospital strain and educate people as much as I can while isolating as much as possible.

This, too, shall pass, but I'm worried about the effects of the pandemic on those less fortunate in funds and health, and those who are frightened and have few options.

+1

I have to agree with harvestbook. I have been pleasantly surprised that I haven't really thought of it as real money either as our retirement is still decades away. We have only been invested during this last decade's bull run so we had not experienced anything like this before. We have just left everything on autopilot as we always do. I have been more focused on the dropping mortgage rates and trying to catch a good time to refinance. With the volume of refinances and the rates seeming to rebound a little at the moment I guess I will need to wait just a bit longer.

[Alex GR]

One thing I learned from the events of the past several days is that I can panic but not panic sell. How so? Well, I am definitely in a state of shock. Seeing $100k+ disappear in just a couple of weeks is not healthy.
I realize it will come back. I realize hundreds of posts and finance books all say I shouldn't worry since I don't plan to touch the money for 20 years. But then I think about the actual dollar amount and WHAT I have to do to save that much... wake up every morning with an alarm clock...all the work-related stress... just thinking about how many man hours of hard work it takes to save $100k... CRAZY
Having said that, I actually bought some VOO today @$130 which was close to the bottom. I personally don't see how this can go any lower but I realize tomorrow it may.

P.S. Actually considered not even looking at the account today but I had to make some changes to limit orders in place.

Note: I did not have a portfolio in 2008/2009.

[chipmonk]

How are you guys staying calm?

By not trying to time the market, and not trying to change my allocation.

I just, however, just do my biggest Tax Loss Harvest (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax_loss_harvesting) since the days following the Fukishima Daiichi nuclear disaster of 2011. This will result in me being able to deduct $3,000 from my taxable income for years to come.

[MarkerFM]

Starting to invest cash I have had sitting on the sidelines for a year or so.
Tax Loss Harvesting where possible.
Re-balance out of bonds into equities.
Suspend extra principal payments on mortgage to invest more.

I look at various things to get a sense of how crazy the market it. Today, one could get $8+ per share for selling December 2021 SPY puts with a $150 strike price. Do I think SPY will be down 58% in 21 months from its peak? No. This market is crazy. So I sold some of these puts.

[Old Guy]

Not doing anything. I’m not looking at my investments. I’m 77. I know that the stock market goes down. The stock market goes up.

[nisiprius]

1) I am staying the course.

2) I feel lousy, not exactly "dealing with it" except to accept it.

[mighty72]

We went from 2 comma club to one comma club, sitting tight except did some TLH. I re-balance at end of the month if needed when I have months contributions. It is really not a re-balance, it is more funneling funds to funds lagging behind target allocation.
Dealing with it is not easy specially when WFH and cornavirus & stock market is the only the thing folks are talking about. I am trying my best to keep myself distracted with work and bogleheads

[Fallible]

I expect another 10-20% drop from here. (for a total 30-40% drop from the peak). I expect a slow recovery over a few years.

I am staying calm by telling myself "I hope all I end up losing to this pandemic is some money".

My expectations (hopes?) are kind of in line with yours, but to be honest, I really expect another drop/or a rise/or another drop/another rise, etc.; and I expect a slow/fast/in-between recovery over anywhere from a few to 10-15 or more years. In other words, I simply don't know and have been through too many market crashes (since '87) to guess. When I reset my allocation to reflect my age and dwindling time horizon, I imagined the next crash (they have all differed) would be something similar to the magnitude of '08. The COVID-19 pandemic is a surprise, but if not that, something else would turn bull to bear.

I do like your perspective on remaining calm, i.e., to "hope all I end up losing to this pandemic is some money."

[achillesheel]

Dealing with it is not easy specially when WFH and coronavirus & stock market is the only the thing folks are talking about. I am trying my best to keep myself distracted with work and bogleheads

Hi, new investor here (<4 years). I agree, it's hard to focus. I'm not sure yet whether Bogleheads helps me tune it out or amplifies it all. Also, beyond the personal interest of seeing investments go down, there's the drama and spectacle of a worldwide pandemic - the spread (if not the scope, yet) really takes your breath away.

[Sheepdog]

I do what I usually do
First thing "Say Thank You"When I wake up
Photography
Study spanish
Exercise
Drink good coffee
Laugh a lot
Enjoy time with my wife
Children
Sleep well
Work in the yard,
Travel
Read,Read,Read
Not Necessarily in This Order

Very nice.....very very. Thanks.

[unclescrooge]

My annual $9.5k bonus will hit my back account tomorrow.

Them it'll will hit my brokerage and go all in equities.

[cresive]

I am staying course so far but the drop is scaring the hack out of me. I know I should keep bogle way but it is pretty stressful to see vanguard portfolio going down in value every day.

How are you guys staying calm? And how far will it go down? I heard once shale oil market gets screwed, things can get much uglier.

Staying the Course and Bourbon!

[tre3sori]

... a story about the rise of fund management firms with their complex models and black boxes and algorithms, resulting in sudden spikes of volatillity either because something was wrong about their original models or they are trying to take advantage of the volatility and in doing so exarcerbating the trends.

Institutional investors are approaching the limits of the risk budget for themselves and their clients. For example: I manage my own balanced portfolio and lost 30k today with a buy and hold approach. My brother has his portfolio being managed by a Swiss Bank. From yesterday to today he lost 1k only on a balanced portfolio since the value at risk model of his bank has steered massively out of equities. (But on a time horizon of 5 years I had a 15% better performance with a buy and hold approach compared to his Swiss Bank risk controlled portfolio, attributing about half of it to lower cost and the other half to the higher risk I took. I'm still ahead of him by quite a bit. This may change, if crash continues.)

[Youngblood]

This is not easy for me to deal with. I absolutely hate money disappearing into the ether especially when it amounts to a lot.

It this my first rodeo, as someone above analogized? No, I'm 71 and have invested from my mid twenties. For my personality, I just don't seem to be able to get used to these nearly 30% quickly down market index moves. I was actually tempted to sell this morning.

The stupid thing I did was purchase an individual oil stock a few months ago and well now, it is down about 50%. Because I hate losing money (valuations and the eleven year old bull market) I only had 18% in equities when this crash started. I'm guessing it must be down to 15% now.

I decided not to sell and have changed all dividends and capital gain to reinvest. Honestly though, I am unwilling to invest any large amounts of money but will dollar cost average my monthly SS check which I usually do.

None of us know when, how long or if the markets will rebound. Within the stocks/bonds/cash universe however, bonds and cash now yield next to nothing. So, when this current threat clears...

The only thing helping me accept this loss is to compare it to what I would have lost had I had even a traditional 70/30 portfolio.

For those younger folks, up until age fifty-two I had nearly 100% in equities. Then, I reduced this to about 40%.

I sure hope the epidemiologists can figure this out before anymore lives are lost or affected.

[Explorer]

I am staying the course, and if I find a shiny penny under the mattress I am buying equities...

[ByThePond]

We're staying the course and wishing we had more cash to divert to equities.
We rode out '87, '98, '08 at 100% equities, so this is just one more rerun. We're now retired with an AA of 80/20 and most expenses covered by one SS and a SPIA, and another SS yet to come. I had no plans to withdraw any funds through the end of the year anyway, so it's easy to wait and see. I have done some rebalancing, though.

[carminered2019]

I am staying the course, and if I find a shiny penny under the mattress I am buying equities...

+1

[BolderBoy]

I am staying course so far but the drop is scaring the hack out of me. I know I should keep bogle way but it is pretty stressful to see vanguard portfolio going down in value every day.

This may be a symptom that your target asset allocation isn't good for you.

[equanimity]

Just rebalanced by exchanging a large chunk of my bond index to buy more equities and will continue my automated transfers from my checking account right into VTSAX. Psychologically, it helps to know that, by doing so, I am owning a greater share of the market.

[J295]

1) I am staying the course.

2) I feel lousy, not exactly "dealing with it" except to accept it.

1. Staying course.
2. Feeling mixed.

Remembering exactly where I was and the surreal feelings on Black Monday 1987, and on some of those really grim days during the great recession.

[sailaway]

Schrodingers net worth. I won't know until I look if it is really up or down.

OK, its down, but I won't know the actual damage until June when we do our semi annual snapshot.

[ge1]

The Financial Crisis was a great teacher. I had too much stocks going into that one and realized being down 40% on your overall portfolio is no fun. Have since lowered my allocation to stocks to only about 40% due to low need to take risk. Even so we are probably down 400k.

The human component aside, sell offs like these are a great buying opportunity. I rebalanced today (and even a bit over my target allocation) and am ready to do so should the sell off continue.

[J295]

I am staying course so far but the drop is scaring the hack out of me. I know I should keep bogle way but it is pretty stressful to see vanguard portfolio going down in value every day.

This may be a symptom that your target asset allocation isn't good for you.

I think that’s the standard analysis/advice, which is OK as a starting point. And I do note that Boulder Boy correctly used the term “may.” A feeling should not be the primary indicator for investment decisions. One can be fearful (or have any variety of responses to market moves) and still have the proper allocation.

[carmonkie]

This is really my first major market downward movement. I was not heavily invested back in 2008.

we were oh so close to the 1/2 mil mark and have taken a setback. I am shrugging it off right now. I will be able to Tax-loss harvest for the the first time and should carry over some losses.

Other than that, plan on keeping adding more as the paycheck hits. I am 80/20 AA and I think need to look at where the bonds are and if anything, I should be able to redirect my 401(k) contributions only to equities for a while. I have some cash coming in in the next few weeks and planning in just putting it back to work in the market.

In short staying the course...

[kareysue]

I don't know if this counts as staying the course, but I am throwing huge amounts of cash in the market and watching it evaporate!

I was 100% cash - 0% stocks at the start of 2020, and have been throwing money into stocks. It is strangely exciting - in a masochistic sort of way - to see your money "disappear" as quickly as you invest it. All the money I invested in mid-February is already sitting at -25% losses, so I really don't know how the folks who were at 100% equities are handling it.

To be honest, when markets go down so sharply in a short period of time, I think panic has taken over.

why were you 100% cash before and what made you want to invest in 2020? Same for me I thought election year stocks would go up

[kacang]

Rebalanced once, prepared to rebalance again as needed, till we hit a lower limit of 7-years' of expenses in fixed income. All per IPS.

Can't sleep well at night, not because of stock market. My mother is her nineties and has been through several health scares in recent years, including pneumonia, stroke, sepsis. I'm not optimistic about her chances if she catches this. My younger son's college just moved all classes online and he is still on the campus. I am torn, should he stay on campus (half empty, excellent UF Shands hospital within easy access) or fly him home (SF Bay Area)?

As someone posted before, I'd be happy if when this is over, all we lose is money.

[UnLearnYourself]

38, and staying the course for sure. It's an interesting exercise, having not had much money exposed to markets ~ 08. But I know I'm buying more shares cheaper and believe dollar cost averaging is the way to go. Lots will happen over the next 30-60yrs so I'm feeling calm and steady personally.

[TomatoTomahto]

I am staying course so far but the drop is scaring the hack out of me. I know I should keep bogle way but it is pretty stressful to see vanguard portfolio going down in value every day.

This may be a symptom that your target asset allocation isn't good for you.

I think that’s the standard analysis/advice, which is OK as a starting point. And I do note that Boulder Boy correctly used the term “may.” A feeling should not be the primary indicator for investment decisions. One can be fearful (or have any variety of responses to market moves) and still have the proper allocation.

Yeah, I sometimes say the same thing, but only when I hear it said after a 5% drop. I am standing by my asset allocation, such as it is (it’s really more a fixed income floor), but it’s human to get fearful and feel regret when your net worth drops significantly.

The knee jerk response doesn’t help anything.

[timboktoo]

This is why I keep 1/3 of my portfolio in bonds and have a 6 month emergency fund. It's my sleep at night money. I didn't get to reap as much of a benefit during the bull market as others did. That was actually harder to stomach than this is.

- Tim

[Rowan Oak]

Staying the course.

Have rebalanced twice.

I deal with the stress by rereading Jack Bogle's: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing

I've read it at least 4 times in the last 10 years.

[mlcolorado]

Staying the Course and not buying or selling anything. I retired in 2019 so this is the worst possible time for such a downturn. But.... I am "lucky" that I decided to sell stock funds in my IRA in mid-January, 2020, to fund my 2020 expenses and, perhaps, my Roth Rollover for the year. I moved the funds into my IRA Money Market fund (all in Vanguard) and have a monthly transfer setup to move funds to my bank, and send my estimated Federal Tax to the IRS with each transfer. Seeing that I have 1 year of expenses in the bank as our emergency fund, and a second year+ in my IRA Money Market account, I do not have to really be concerned about what is going on for the next 24 months before I might have to sell something more to fund my living expenses. We also have Social Security (1x hers plus 1/2 hers as spousal for the next 4 years) and some non-IRA monthly and quarterly dividends coming into the bank accounts as well. We are planing to live and travel on 4% of our investments for now, not adjusted for inflation, until we see "how it goes."

We were both working and maxing out our 401K accounts in 2000 and 2008/2009 and ignored the downturns and continued to max our contributions. Never even thought of selling. We were not retired then, so stay the course and continue to accumulate shares.

It has all worked out well. I am currently more concerned about my paid for scuba trip to the Cayman Islands in May, 2020, and a paid for 3 week trip to Africa in September, 2020. Those trips may get messed up with the current situations. Such is life. We are healthy and happy, that's 99% of the important stuff.

[Stef]

I honestly cannot understand panic selling

I don't like watching the market go down like this one bit

But the further it drops the more I know I'm not selling and locking in a 20+ percent loss

This! When we had the first bad week I was thinking about selling everything. But after the 2nd week I was like: no way I'm going to realize a 20% loss.

At some point you just stop caring because there is no other option than waiting it out till it recovers to the old level.

[Caduceus]

I don't know if this counts as staying the course, but I am throwing huge amounts of cash in the market and watching it evaporate!

I was 100% cash - 0% stocks at the start of 2020, and have been throwing money into stocks. It is strangely exciting - in a masochistic sort of way - to see your money "disappear" as quickly as you invest it. All the money I invested in mid-February is already sitting at -25% losses, so I really don't know how the folks who were at 100% equities are handling it.

To be honest, when markets go down so sharply in a short period of time, I think panic has taken over.

why were you 100% cash before and what made you want to invest in 2020? Same for me I thought election year stocks would go up

I am not a pure Boglehead. I default to index funds when I can't find something significantly better. I sold out of all my equities in December 2019 and I posted on the forum asking about ultra short term bond funds to park my cash before I researched other possibilities. Folks like Livesoft and Nisiprius helped me and I eventually went with BIL and SHV. So these were basically cash-equivalents. I started buying in late January because I'd identified some positions I liked - not massively cheap, but fairly priced. As it turned out, shortly thereafter, the crash happened. At the time of the first trading halt, I was already about 45% invested, so a fair bit of my cash caught the full brunt of the cash.

[papito23]

I found the Bogleheads in 2011 and devoured everything. Lots of sobering stories from people here left in the wake of the Great Recession.

That led to a plan that I (mostly) keep to, so I am diversified and staying the course. Cash is king... and an emergency fund is a huge psychological buffer to this downturn.

I'm thankful to so many people here who are still posting... SheepDog, Taylor Larimore, Nisiprius, LadyGeek etc.

[HawkeyePierce]

This is my first bear market as an investor, since I was in college during the GFC. So far I'm finding my nerves are holding up better than I expected. I haven't had any temptation to change my investments.

That said, my job is unlikely to be impacted, I can work remotely indefinitely and I have a fully-funded emergency fund, so I'm in a fortunate position.

[Abe]

I have been investing for a long time, so I was a pretty savvy investor when I joined the Bogleheads a little over 10 years ago. I have been through a few market downturns, and I have always stayed the course, even before I became a Boglehead. I haven't updated my net worth statement, but the market has lost about 27% since February 19th, so I'm probably down around $750k. I'm grateful for everything I've learned here, and I think it has helped me deal with this downturn. I don't like losing that much money in a few days even if it's on paper, but I have to say I'm not that worried about it either. One reason for this is because I have about 70 times my living expenses invested in safe assets like (Cash, CD's, Money Market, Bonds, etc). In addition to that I have real estate holdings that produce income, and I have income from other sources as well. I realize this is going overboard on the conservative side, but when the market crashes like it's doing now, this allows me to sleep at night. So, I'm planning on staying the course.