How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

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exoilman
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by exoilman »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:52 am
RubyTuesday wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:50 am Not rejoicing, and concerned for friends and family at risk both financially and health wise.
+1

We can withstand this financially relatively well.
+2
wolf359
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by wolf359 »

jwa wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
lauberge49 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 am I am 70, retired, and was at 40/60 AA at the peak. This week, I switched to 60/40, and may go 70/30 if this continues. I have to do RMD’s starting this year but IRA is all in bonds, so comfortable with that. I am in a position that, if I need to increase my allocation in stocks, I will have to own stocks in my IRA.......we also have a bit of cash on the sidelines if need be..........looking rough at the open this Thursday morning........seat belt fastened, but probably will not make another move until 2021..........luck and good health to all........
You don’t have to do RMD’s this year, if you don’t want to. The law changed first of the year and it is now age 72.
Sorry, wanted to point out a misunderstanding of the SECURE Act. The old RMD rules still apply to those who turned 70 1/2 before the new law took effect. So, lauberge49 still has to take an RMD.

Source: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/re ... tributions
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (SECURE Act) became law on December 20, 2019. The Secure Act made major changes to the RMD rules. If you reached the age of 70½ in 2019 the prior rule applies, and you must take your first RMD by April 1, 2020. If you reach age 70 ½ in 2020 or later you must take your first RMD by April 1 of the year after you reach 72.
Last edited by wolf359 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
exoilman
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by exoilman »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:45 am
Rus In Urbe wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:43 am *
We're retired and in a good position at 30/70 (out of dumb luck because of a rollover that put a hunk into cash in early Feb). So we are home and secure and healthy, so far.

But rejoice? No. I'm thinking of all the people who staked their retirement and need the income. And of the folks who, because of the business downturn that will follow, will lose their jobs. And of the people who won't be able to pay their mortgage, or pay a doctor, or put food on the table because their jobs snuffed.

Q2 news is going to be abysmal and that will bring on another round of selling. We'll bungee-jump this thing downward a long way yet---just my hunch.
On the other hand, adversity will bring out the best in a lot of people. That happens too.

But, Rejoice? no.

Rus.
+1,000.

KlangFool
+>1000
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alpenglow
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by alpenglow »

onourway wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:50 am It is what it is. I expect to work for another 15 years or so, and I'm still comfortable with my chosen asset allocation today. If things fall further and stay down, I will likely shift all new purchases to equity for a while. Otherwise no changes.
I was very close to 7-figures excluding my primary residence, but with 14 years until retirement, I'm more pleased than displeased with the market losses. On the other hand, this is not very helpful for the retired folks in my family. They will probably be fine, but they may have to cut back to the basics for a while. My FIL is close to retirement and has little saved, gambling on the most aggressive fund he could find. I fear this may have dire consequences for him.
WhyNotUs
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by WhyNotUs »

Not me
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX
ososnilknarf
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ososnilknarf »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
bo105954027
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by bo105954027 »

I used to be with 7 figure now dropped to 6 figure :(

Not rejoicing, if I'm qualified to answer.
Time in market beats timing the market.
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Sandtrap
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Sandtrap »

Chip Shot wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:07 pm No rejoicing here. 3-4 yrs out from retirement. AA was 48/52 at market peak. 40/60 now. I probably should be re-balancing, but can't seem to pull the trigger. When we get back near previous high, I will probably pull back my AA to 30-70.
I really didnt have a need to take the risk that I was taking, even with my conservative AA
Good plan👍
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edge
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by edge »

I am not rejoicing, but I am buying.
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aj76er
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by aj76er »

It’s NOT constructive to mentally covert paper losses into physical objects or salary, etc.

It’s NOT constructive to anchor to a specific balance or number (eg 7 figures etc).

It IS constructive to re-evaluate your risk tolerance for the future. Create a VPW table with current return estimates and a long life expectancy. Look at the numbers that fall out.

It IS constructive to think about the low valuations in the market, and which assets are on sale; and which assets are not. Buy and sell your stocks and bonds with eyes wide open. Make sure you are acting according to valuations and probability; not emotion. This applies to both accumulators and de-accumulators alike.

It IS constructive to be mentally prepared for a drawn out bear market. E.g. 5 - 10 years of 0% real stock gains.

It IS constructive to take reasonable precautions to the Coronavirus but to not be obsessive. Do more washing of hands; don’t build underground bunkers. Watch less news.

In the end, stick to your IPS. Rebalance on schedule. Stay the course.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle
Thesaints
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Thesaints »

ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus.
We certainly don't know that yet, since we don't know yet the mortality rate.
We can't exclude the possibility of an exceptional worldwide tragedy that would literally crush financial markets, but we can't exclude the possibility of a rather benign epidemics, on the same scale of a severe flu.
deltaneutral83
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by deltaneutral83 »

This question is not really in proper context. Someone who is 40/60 and someone who is 100/0 are assuming quite different risk levels. Why would someone at 60/40 or lower really even be that worried? A 50% drop in equities should be assumed in your 30-50 year investing career and a slew of 30-49% declines. And guess what, maybe more. The entire point of being 50/50 or lower pretty much buys you the insurance of not having to worry about these types of things. 60/40 is probably the break even in terms of "Do I really care all that much." If you're 50/50 and following the news every hour, what's the point of being 50/50?
cusetownusa
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by cusetownusa »

bo105954027 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:49 pm I used to be with 7 figure now dropped to 6 figure :(

Not rejoicing, if I'm qualified to answer.
Same here.
smitcat
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by smitcat »

ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
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Jimsad
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Jimsad »

My original asset allocation was 60:40 stocks and bonds but I got greedy over last of couple of years and moved to about 75:25.
I now lost more money than I would have previously .
Learnt my lesson.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Numbers are different than percentage... yes a $300K drop really really is disappointing... but I've been asking for this... Getting lower valuations is a sure way to make money....

I'm now a former member of the 2 comma club... I understand the pain.... I'm riding things out and have taking a few measures to move a couple hundred thousand. But I'm not moving everything...

At some point here I will harvest some losses and use that as a tool going forward...
Gnirk
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Gnirk »

There is no rejoicing here. We are a mid-70’s and early-80’s retired couple, what’s to rejoice? :shock:
HotRod
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by HotRod »

I'm not rejoicing - but I am gloating a little bit...

Several years ago when I found this forum and decided to leave my financial adviser I made decisions about how to structure my investments. Most of my opinions were developed from what I learned here (Thank You all !!)

Just before I left my financial adviser I hired a fee only adviser for a 1 time review of my plan. He gave me some good advise, but he REALLY did not like my plan to have 2 YEARS of living expenses in an Ally FDIC insured savings account. He pushed for me hard to have 6 months living expenses in my emergency fund. Well, here we are today and I can wait 2 years for the market to return to it's historic highs before I have to even consider selling anything. I'm retired and I sleep well at night.

I haven't lost a dime, because I haven't sold anything.

Having said that, I am VERY sympathetic to those who have lost, or are at risk of, losing their jobs because of all this. Life isn't fair, and some innocent people are getting squeezed right now through no fault of their own.
kareysue
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by kareysue »

I am 35% stocks and 65% bonds and these past days i am losing sleep. Never seen a market drop so hard in my life. And I am pretty conservative
lexor
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by lexor »

Gnirk wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:39 pm There is no rejoicing here. We are a mid-70’s and early-80’s retired couple, what’s to rejoice? :shock:
That is unfortunately two of the worst ages for the timing of this. At least people not taking RMDs yet can do Roth conversions. :(

Stay safe!
“The miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.” -Mr. John C. Bogle
ososnilknarf
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ososnilknarf »

smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
Just for the record, I'm not trying to sow fear and panic. I just did the math based on the various stats I've been hearing from various sources.
Not trying to claim to be an expert on any of this, only basing on the information I've heard. But I'm just a guy on the internet to you, so don't take it from me. I'd prefer to get my information from experts who study these things, not from social media or alarmist news reports or a guy on the internet.
And the scientists and people who study these things are definitely saying this not like the seasonal flu. It is much more contagious and much deadlier.

Here are a couple of related links, feel free to do your own research:
Mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Number of americans to get the virus:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-1 ... -says.html

But I admit the experts are also saying that it is difficult to make a good prediction so these are all guesses. Kind of like investing! ;)

Sorry for having this exchange on this thread... kind of off-topic.
DVMResident
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by DVMResident »

I’m 6 years into mid-5 digit a year saving/investing. Not quite 2-comma, but I’m just hitting the “tipping point” where average returns exceed contributions. Also, got my eye on a cheap refi.

I am excited for the buying opportunities and will continue to be until I get laid off! Or get infected :oops:
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sergeant
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by sergeant »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 am For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years giving greater returns if I sold some from stable value and bought more SP500 index fund. I know it’s an individual choice, but wondering what some people’s opinions are.
Are you expecting a pension? How well funded is it? You could certainly direct all new funds in your retirement account go to equities.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
Thesaints
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Thesaints »

DVMResident wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:13 pm I’m 6 years into mid-5 digit a year saving/investing. Not quite 2-comma, but I’m just hitting the “tipping point” where average returns exceed contributions.
Turns out the last 6-year returns were anything but average...
robertw477
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by robertw477 »

That is what most people do. They wait until we shed thousands of points and sell out. Its tough to hang tough. There are some pretty smart people here. The part that hurts is the velocity of the selloff right after we hit all time highs.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by watchnerd »

robertw477 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:26 pm That is what most people do. They wait until we shed thousands of points and sell out. Its tough to hang tough. There are some pretty smart people here. The part that hurts is the velocity of the selloff right after we hit all time highs.
I feel less stung now than in 2008 - 2009, which came after the lost decade of crappy returns.

At least this is coming after some great years.
60% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS 10% cash || RSU + ESPP
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sergeant
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by sergeant »

We have a solid 7 figure portfolio of just fixed income assets. We had a 7 figure portfolio of equities but dipped under the 2 comma club this week. We have pensions that more than cover our living expenses. We are not rejoicing. I have done some buying on the dips but that hasn't gone too well. I'm worried for some of my older friends as this seems to be a dangerous time for them The saddest part is that they get most of their information from one news channel and my friends are convinced covid19 is just like getting a cold.

There is no joy in Mudville either. My job with a MLB team is on hold. Many of the folks I work with rely on that income to get by. I rely on having earned income to make Roth contributions so we won't be doing that possibly.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
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Atomic
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Atomic »

7 figures is not a problem I have, anymore.
carminered2019
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by carminered2019 »

down another 181K just today...…..you can do the math. :twisted: :annoyed no rejoicing here but have been buying.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

We're getting pretty close to falling out of the 2 comma club - If we have another day like today, we probably will. So, no, can't say I'm rejoicing. To take it a step further, I have been happily buying on the way down. The last few days, though, I've "paused" that buying/rebalancing. I suspect the market has a ways to go south yet before finding terra firma. :beer
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Jimsad
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Jimsad »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:45 pm We're getting pretty close to falling out of the 2 comma club - If we have another day like today, we probably will. So, no, can't say I'm rejoicing. To take it a step further, I have been happily buying on the way down. The last few days, though, I've "paused" that buying/rebalancing. I suspect the market has a ways to go south yet before finding terra firma. :beer
I think it is smart to wait . I also started to buy a few days ago but realized it may be like catching a falling knife and held off
smitcat
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by smitcat »

ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:07 pm
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 am

I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
Just for the record, I'm not trying to sow fear and panic. I just did the math based on the various stats I've been hearing from various sources.
Not trying to claim to be an expert on any of this, only basing on the information I've heard. But I'm just a guy on the internet to you, so don't take it from me. I'd prefer to get my information from experts who study these things, not from social media or alarmist news reports or a guy on the internet.
And the scientists and people who study these things are definitely saying this not like the seasonal flu. It is much more contagious and much deadlier.

Here are a couple of related links, feel free to do your own research:
Mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Number of americans to get the virus:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-1 ... -says.html

But I admit the experts are also saying that it is difficult to make a good prediction so these are all guesses. Kind of like investing! ;)

Sorry for having this exchange on this thread... kind of off-topic.
I have read many of those threads and know many folks in the healthcare industry and no one is saying ….. "Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that"

So yes - your posts do suggest you are sowing fear with unfounded statistics.
keystone
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by keystone »

Definitely not rejoicing, but not particularly bothered by any of the recent losses.

Just tax loss harvested quite a bit to add to my hopeful lifetime supply of capital losses. Also bought quite a chunk of VTSAX yesterday to bring my stock allocation from 50% to about 55%. Who knows what will happen, but if/when the markets come back to record highs, those who stayed the course and took advantage of buying on the dips will be wealthier than ever.
IowaFarmBoy
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by IowaFarmBoy »

I'm planning on retiring in about 3 months so I am definitely not rejoicing. In the last year or so, I moved my retirement date up by a few years and switched my target allocation to 60 stocks, 40 fixed income. In adding new money, I actually got myself to about 57/43 at the first of the year. The market had been so good for so long I wanted to take more off the table in anticipation of needing quite a bit of cash for 5 years or so until I started drawing SS. In my planning, I had always thought that I needed to be ready for a 20% drop at any time and had considered the impact of a 50% drop and felt my allocation left me in decent shape.

I updated my spreadsheet last night to see how I was doing (at this point the worst day yet, I think). I realized that my total portfolio was down about 10% from the first of the year and maybe 15% from the market peak. I probably had added 2% of my portfolio as new money since the first of the year so it is a little more severe but not bad. That is not nearly the carnage I expected from following the news. I'm now at about 50/50. My IPS basically says that I will not re-balance out of bonds into stocks so I always preserve that capital.

A conservative asset allocation that matches risk certainly helps me sleep at night.
jvini
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by jvini »

Not happy, but feel blessed. Still have quite a bit and my 57/43 portfolio (age-10 in bonds) helped cushion the blow, even though losing hundreds of thousands doesn't really seem cushioned. College funds are in safe investments and home is paid for. Hunkering down and trying to live below my means. Dollar cost averaging in starting in April. I'm just not ready yet to start putting my cash back in and it won't make a huge difference anyway.
nigel_ht
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by nigel_ht »

halfnine wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:18 am To me it looks like there are asset bubbles everywhere. The last few years have reminded me of the euphoria in 1999. While I am not "rejoicing" I would prefer to see bubbles popped sooner rather than later for everyone's sake. A few years back we decided to postpone FIRE until after the next recession.
This is where we were this year although the RE part is only sorta true (mid 50s vs mid 40s).

I dunno that anyone is “rejoicing” because that would be crass but there are opportunities to buy in if you have dry powder.
ososnilknarf
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ososnilknarf »

smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:24 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:07 pm
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am

The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
Just for the record, I'm not trying to sow fear and panic. I just did the math based on the various stats I've been hearing from various sources.
Not trying to claim to be an expert on any of this, only basing on the information I've heard. But I'm just a guy on the internet to you, so don't take it from me. I'd prefer to get my information from experts who study these things, not from social media or alarmist news reports or a guy on the internet.
And the scientists and people who study these things are definitely saying this not like the seasonal flu. It is much more contagious and much deadlier.

Here are a couple of related links, feel free to do your own research:
Mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Number of americans to get the virus:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-1 ... -says.html

But I admit the experts are also saying that it is difficult to make a good prediction so these are all guesses. Kind of like investing! ;)

Sorry for having this exchange on this thread... kind of off-topic.
I have read many of those threads and know many folks in the healthcare industry and no one is saying ….. "Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that"

So yes - your posts do suggest you are sowing fear with unfounded statistics.
I agree I have not heard anyone stating those absolute numbers. Only percentages and morality rates. From there the math is simple. I just did the math.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

Jimsad wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 am I personally am trying to stay put but the losses are beginning to sting when they are in multiples of 100k to my portfolio.

I think it is easier for folks with smaller portfolios to post comments like “I wish market will drop another 30%”

How many of you with large portfolios are wishing for bigger drops in the market ?
Our portfolio drawdown in the past 2 weeks has been ridiculous.

But I have never wished for a market drop, or an untenable inflated scenario like a 2000. Ideally I would rather a steady increase each year, which is completely unrealistic.

I try keeping perspective in all scenarios. And we periodically evaluate if our portfolio actually makes sense for our situation, and if we can keep on through good and bad times.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
spae
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by spae »

I was hoping for a correction but I'm not rejoicing because:

1. Real people are going to die. Even if the optimists are right and "this is just another flu", the flu is one of the largest health problems in the developed world. Having an additional flu-level illness circulating is an epic disaster, probably the biggest one that's occurred in my lifetime.
2. Layoffs are coming for real people. My employer is healthily profitable and we've already had emergency meetings to deal with how this is impacting us. A lot of my friends are at tech companies that aren't profitable or are barely profitable. A lot of them are going to be hit hard and if this is a lot worse than the flu, then we're also going to have layoffs. And we're the lucky ones since we work in tech and have no problem working from home, a lot of people are worse off.
3. Stock prices are down, but are they really cheaper? If we had a correction because an overconfidence bubble popped, I'd be happy I'm getting a better deal. As it is, I can't tell if I'm getting a better or a worse deal. Maybe this disaster is going to be worse than is currently priced in and I'm actually getting a worse deal than I would be in the alternative universe where this virus was contained like SARS was.

If, in three years, the virus is contained via an effective vaccine and I haven't been laid off and I haven't taken a pay cut and the virus hasn't caused problems for me, I won't rejoice (people will still have died and have been impacted by layoffs) but I'll feel like this hasn't been a problem for me personally. It's way too early to tell if this is going to negatively impact me. For all I know, I'll be in an ICU in two months. Even if I were totally selfish and had no problems rejoicing while other people are dying, celebration would be premature.
Jimsad wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 am I think it is easier for folks with smaller portfolios to post comments like “I wish market will drop another 30%”

How many of you with large portfolios are wishing for bigger drops in the market ?
I see this the other way. The more money I have, the less I care about losing it. If I had an aggressive unhedged AA I'd be down hundreds of thousands of dollars and I'd have no problem with that because it's silly to be in the 1% of wealth and top 0.1% of income in the U.S. for my age and worry about losing money. I might drop into only being in the top 2% for my age? World's smallest violin.

I know what it's like to be poor. I've been poor. It's people who need the money who I'm concerned for.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by TomatoTomahto »

^ Well said spae.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
smitcat
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by smitcat »

ososnilknarf wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:56 am
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:24 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:07 pm
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm

Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that.
"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
Just for the record, I'm not trying to sow fear and panic. I just did the math based on the various stats I've been hearing from various sources.
Not trying to claim to be an expert on any of this, only basing on the information I've heard. But I'm just a guy on the internet to you, so don't take it from me. I'd prefer to get my information from experts who study these things, not from social media or alarmist news reports or a guy on the internet.
And the scientists and people who study these things are definitely saying this not like the seasonal flu. It is much more contagious and much deadlier.

Here are a couple of related links, feel free to do your own research:
Mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Number of americans to get the virus:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-1 ... -says.html

But I admit the experts are also saying that it is difficult to make a good prediction so these are all guesses. Kind of like investing! ;)

Sorry for having this exchange on this thread... kind of off-topic.
I have read many of those threads and know many folks in the healthcare industry and no one is saying ….. "Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that"

So yes - your posts do suggest you are sowing fear with unfounded statistics.
I agree I have not heard anyone stating those absolute numbers. Only percentages and morality rates. From there the math is simple. I just did the math.
How many people have died in China from the virus?
How many in any other country?
How many people die each year from drugs in the US?
How many die each year in the US from smoking?
Please do some more research with good sources and perhaps do additional math on 'most conservative estimates'.
Then you will have data that may potentially have some value.
ososnilknarf
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ososnilknarf »

smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:52 am
ososnilknarf wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:56 am
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:24 pm
ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:07 pm
smitcat wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm

"Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that."

Please post your numerous links to these conservative estimates.
Just for the record, I'm not trying to sow fear and panic. I just did the math based on the various stats I've been hearing from various sources.
Not trying to claim to be an expert on any of this, only basing on the information I've heard. But I'm just a guy on the internet to you, so don't take it from me. I'd prefer to get my information from experts who study these things, not from social media or alarmist news reports or a guy on the internet.
And the scientists and people who study these things are definitely saying this not like the seasonal flu. It is much more contagious and much deadlier.

Here are a couple of related links, feel free to do your own research:
Mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Number of americans to get the virus:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-1 ... -says.html

But I admit the experts are also saying that it is difficult to make a good prediction so these are all guesses. Kind of like investing! ;)

Sorry for having this exchange on this thread... kind of off-topic.
I have read many of those threads and know many folks in the healthcare industry and no one is saying ….. "Again, even the most conservative estimates are the over a million people in the US will die from coronavirus. So even the 2018 flu which killed ~60,000 people is small compared to that"

So yes - your posts do suggest you are sowing fear with unfounded statistics.
I agree I have not heard anyone stating those absolute numbers. Only percentages and morality rates. From there the math is simple. I just did the math.
How many people have died in China from the virus?
How many in any other country?
How many people die each year from drugs in the US?
How many die each year in the US from smoking?
Please do some more research with good sources and perhaps do additional math on 'most conservative estimates'.
Then you will have data that may potentially have some value.
Let me back up a second here. I was originally replying to another guy who made a comparison to the seasonal flu. I was trying to illustrate why even though the seasonal flu has killed more people NOW, the reason this was a bigger deal was because of the projected impact.

To illustrate this I did some simple math:
(US population) * (% of US population infected) * (mortality rate of coronavirus) = (# of deaths in US)

So that math is pretty basic, but as always, garbage in = garbage out, so it depends on what numbers you use for the inputs.
% of US population infected: The most common thing I've seen passed around is 40-70%, but I did hear another estimate saying 20%. So, I used 20%, because like I said I was using the most conservative numbers I've seen reported.
Mortality rate of coronavirus: I used 2% because the numbers I'd heard were 2-3%, but now I've been hearing some reporting saying it could be lower, like 1%. So, even using 1% it is an order of magnitude greater than the seasonal flu.

Feel free to use whatever numbers you want in that equation. If you have better "good sources" than what I've seen, please share them. I do seek accurate information.

Now, it may be that those numbers being projected are wrong, and it won't be as bad as predicted. It may also be that it would have been that bad, but with all of the preemptive measures being taken it won't be. Only time will tell.

Let me also say that earlier I thought all of this seemed like a big overreaction, but when I saw those numbers being predicted I did some mental math and realized that maybe those numbers are why this is a big deal.

Here is another point that makes me think this is not just hype: Huge multi-national organizations and corporations are making the voluntary decision to cancel events, and close businesses, costing enormous profits. That just isn't something that these businesses do unless they truly believe it is serious. I've always felt that by following the money you can find the truth. And these organizations don't choose to lose money lightly. I would believe that the ones making these decisions would have sought out the best information possible before taking these steps.
If this was just some media hype, would the NBA and other major sports organizations cancel their seasons? Would the president restrict air travel from Europe? Would Walt Disney Corporation close its theme parks? Disneyland has only closed unexpectedly 3 times in the past, the last time being 9/11/2001, and it re-opened the next day.

So, if this is not such a big deal, why would companies choose to lose so much money? Why do I think? I think it is because of those projected numbers I referred to above. But maybe you have better information than what they looked at. If so please do share.
Last edited by ososnilknarf on Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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nedsaid
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by nedsaid »

I suspect there are a lot of folks here that USED TO have 7 figure portfolios who now have to settle for a mere 6 figures. Markets and portfolios do recover however.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Random Walker
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Random Walker »

Pale Horse wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:29 am I was initially, but I've been selling bonds for equities in 5% chunks since the bottom started falling out. Now I'm all out of dry powder though (at least as low as I feel comfortable) and too far skewed toward equities. I'm ready for it to head back up so I can shift back to my normal allocation.
Do you mind letting us know what your overall stock/bond allocation is? Pretty aggressive if you’ve run out of dry powder? Thanks,

Dave
7eight9
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by 7eight9 »

Not happy at all with the current situation. We likely had one of the most conservative portfolios of anyone on this board. I thought we were 20/80. Turns out were at 15/85. Sold on 2/25 down to 7/93. Sold again yesterday. Now 3/97. We lost money. Nothing to rejoice about.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by sschullo »

No. But I do rejoice every damn day that I can manage my portfolio without an expensive adviser.
Not making any changes at the moment. May rebalance into stocks if the market goes further down.
"We have seen much more money made and kept by “ordinary people” who were temperamentally well suited for the investment process than by those who lacked this quality." Ben Graham
protagonist
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by protagonist »

Jimsad wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 am I personally am trying to stay put but the losses are beginning to sting when they are in multiples of 100k to my portfolio.

I think it is easier for folks with smaller portfolios to post comments like “I wish market will drop another 30%”

I think quite the opposite.
People with 7 figure portfolios who are 50% invested in the market and the market loses half its value are much more likely to be able to survive (and rather luxuriously) on....say....a mere 3 million rather than 4 million dollars (or *gasp* a paltry 2 million if they are 100% in stocks), than are people with a five figure portfolio who are retired and have to make mortgage or rent payments.
carminered2019
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by carminered2019 »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:44 am Not happy at all with the current situation. We likely had one of the most conservative portfolios of anyone on this board. I thought we were 20/80. Turns out were at 15/85. Sold on 2/25 down to 7/93. Sold again yesterday. Now 3/97. We lost money. Nothing to rejoice about.
:oops: why, I hope you don't regret it 10 years from now or maybe you just don't have the hearth to be in the market ! I have been moving from 60/40 to almost 100/0 in this down turn. yes, I am still down over 450K(BIG OUCH !) but been buying in big chunk and
Last edited by carminered2019 on Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WL2034
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by WL2034 »

I don't think the size of the portfolio matters as much as the time horizon prior to retirement / withdrawals. Someone with a $500k portfolio planning to retire next year with $550k should be more worried than someone with a $3M portfolio planning to retire in 20 years with $10M+ portfolio.
Rat_Race
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Rat_Race »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:44 am Not happy at all with the current situation. We likely had one of the most conservative portfolios of anyone on this board. I thought we were 20/80. Turns out were at 15/85. Sold on 2/25 down to 7/93. Sold again yesterday. Now 3/97. We lost money. Nothing to rejoice about.
I'm probably one of the most conservative investors here and have been in Wellesley for a while. After hitting two commas over the past year or two and witnessing market valuations that I couldn't explain or understand, I've been slowly moving money to short term bonds and cash, fully exiting most long positions in late Feb. YTD I'm still positive, but down from the highs a bit. I'm going to stay defensive for a while...the potential to lose out on any immediate future gains doesn't bother me. Still dollar cost averaging into stocks with bi-weekly paychecks.
Last edited by Rat_Race on Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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