How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

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smitcat
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by smitcat »

calmaniac wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:56 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am If you have 7 figures you shouldn’t have significant equity exposure

As someone looking to attain 7 figures, I welcome these downturns.
Please provide your rationale for my not have equity exposure?

My DW and I have mid 7 figures and a very substantial cash stream from pensions. Why would we put all of our assets in fixed income, when our time horizon for most of that money is 10+ years? We are presently 70/30 and may consider adding more equities if the correction continues.

I'm not rejoicing in the downturn, but dispassionately looking to see how we can take advantage of the volatility through TLH, selling legacy individual stocks, etc. I do sleep well at night.
"Why would we put all of our assets in fixed income, when our time horizon for most of that money is 10+ years? We are presently 70/30 and may consider adding more equities if the correction continues.
I'm not rejoicing in the downturn, but dispassionately looking to see how we can take advantage of the volatility through TLH, selling legacy individual stocks, etc. I do sleep well at night."

+1 exactly - well said.
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midareff
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by midareff »

Jimsad wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 am I personally am trying to stay put but the losses are beginning to sting when they are in multiples of 100k to my portfolio.

I think it is easier for folks with smaller portfolios to post comments like “I wish market will drop another 30%”

How many of you with large portfolios are wishing for bigger drops in the market ?
You could not stay put and lock the losses in.....................
tdmp
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by tdmp »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:57 am Not rejoicing.
Not doing anything.
Thinking about doing something, but doing nothing is doing something.

This is when an allocation of 35/65 floats in the storm like Noah's Ark.
Although, the animals are getting pretty upset from the turbulence.

Don't just sit there. . . do nothing.
j :happy
Awesome analogy . 55/45. Not rejoicing but did rebalance into equity yesterday.
nguy44
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by nguy44 »

I am not rejoicing, but with my AA at the start of this plunge, even a 50% selloff would still leave us with over $2M ($450K of that in cash), which, with a pension, still makes for a comfortable retirement.
Dottie57
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Dottie57 »

Doing the “grin and bear it” move. I don’t see a good reason to sell stocks so.... also “whistling in the dark”.
perl
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by perl »

I'm enjoying this. I like market crashes. Dealing with events like these calmly is why we get the big bucks.
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watchnerd
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by watchnerd »

goblue100 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:32 am I have two comma's, and even after the carnage of the last two weeks, I still do. I am not rejoicing, but I'm not crying either. I'm resigned to the fact that people are panicked and this thing will need to play out. I feel like it won't be much longer, but who knows.
What I did learn is that my 60/40 asset allocation was pretty close to what I needed.
Same camp, and my 70/30 has turned into 60/40.

Can't rebalance yet unless I want to take short term cap gains hit.

New contributions are going approximately 70% into stocks, 30% into bonds.

All 401k contributions are 100% stock. I can't touch those monies for a decade, anyway.

I'm still continuing ESPP plan, which will give an additional 10% discount on top of the market.

This, too, shall pass.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
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backofbeyond
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by backofbeyond »

Not rejoicing. But knew it was coming and that its a normal part of investing.

I have some dry powder on the side line so slowly dollar cost averaging in. Represents less than 10% of my net worth so won't make a big difference but buying low(er) does help a bit when I realize that many years of gross salary have been whooshed away.
The question isn't at what age I want to retire, it is at what income. - George Foreman
minesweep
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by minesweep »

Many investors are in the same boat. It’s just that some of us have been on board for a longer duration (and have developed an immunity of sorts to being sick to our stomachs when the boat keeps rocking and rolling). They are less likely to jump ship. Also, ‘Misery Loves Company’ comes to mind.

The stock market has always come back from adversity. Why should it be different this time? There could be the mother of all rebounds after this Coronavirus issue is resolved.

Not rejoicing here, but I’m staying the course just as I have always done since the mid 1980’s.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle | Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Kagord
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Kagord »

Not rejoicing, watching both bonds and stocks drop is not fun. That being said, I don't see much upside in bonds, and a stellar ride they have been.

Tin foil hat on, doing market timing, OMG...As we are nearing 0% (or maybe negative) on the 10 year, I don't see much left to garner here, bond-wise, so DCA re-balancing a portion into equities. Yes, adding risk changing a comfortable AA, knowing (maybe expecting) we could drop double where we are now, and then some, but I'm looking 10-20 years out :)

At the beginning, I set a point, if we drop 25%, I'm DCA rebalancing, I've missed out in 1987, 2000, and 2008, not going to happen this time, fool me 4 times.

some edits, I set my next rebalance at Dow 20,000, or 1 month, whichever comes sooner (something tells me 20.0K is real soon). And if Dow stays above 25K, then I'm done, comfortable as is.
Last edited by Kagord on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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jazman12
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by jazman12 »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:52 am
RubyTuesday wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:50 am Not rejoicing, and concerned for friends and family at risk both financially and health wise.
+1

We can withstand this financially relatively well.
don't need to liquidate in order to meet expenses so no, I'm not concerned nor am I rejoicing""
Act soon... time is running out
dcabler
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by dcabler »

Not that it can't get any worse, but the way I'm looking at things is to see when my portfolio was last at its current value. As of yesterday, that was August of last year. Contrast that to 2008, when at the bottom, I was set back about 4 years. Main differences were getting educated about risk tolerance and asset allocation and avoiding some stupid moves I did back then. Of course I'm also looking at TLH opportunities and the ability to clean up some clutter now.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by sman09 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:34 am Not rejoicing at all. I mean....who is looking for instability in the market besides market timers? These times have made me understand the stock/bond relation better. When I update my investments spread sheet, my biggest bond fund is the first one I update. Wow.....another record high day! Then to the stocks and oh.....another record drop. I'm also realizing that my hundreds of thousands of dollars in US Savings Bonds acts unlike both of these and isn't a bond after all. It is uncorrelated with both stocks and bonds. I know that's obvious, but it's easy to take something that's called a bond and just lump it in with other bond funds. Not sure what I'll do with that information.
Jack FFR1846:
Could you give some information on how one invests in US Savings Bonds and if there are specific bonds that come under the category of "US Savings Bonds"?
cbs2002
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by cbs2002 »

Two commas and experiencing my biggest unrealized loss ever. Already been through 2002 and 2009. I did a little experiment to put my mind at ease. I imagined if my really boring portfolio on Feb 20 was 60/40 instead of 75/25.

It would have made between a 1-2% difference to today. Almost nothing over ten years. Now, having that 25% in bonds and a little cash has shielded me from some SP500 index losses this year, so that feels good. My AA is probably going to shift to 70/30 due to this slide, and that's probably where I should be heading anyway at my age. When the inevitable rebound comes, I'll start moving toward 60% equities slowly for the longer haul since I do want to be able to reduce my obligation to work within 10 years.

Small shifts in AA don't do much in the short term. I'm sitting tight, not rejoicing.
Last edited by cbs2002 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mode32
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Mode32 »

For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years giving greater returns if I sold some from stable value and bought more SP500 index fund. I know it’s an individual choice, but wondering what some people’s opinions are.
Last edited by Mode32 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
wolf359
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by wolf359 »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am If you have 7 figures you shouldn’t have significant equity exposure

As someone looking to attain 7 figures, I welcome these downturns. Although I am not rejoicing, as it comes from human suffering rather than some economic/corporate greed fall out that it usually is

The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
The seasonal flu is an established disease. COVID-19 is ten times more lethal than the flu. The key word is "new." It's still new, and it hasn't spread through the population yet. The fear is about what it would look like if it is allowed to spread unmonitored and unconstrained. You can't fairly compare COVID-19 fatalities on day 90 to flu.

Would there be panic and alarm if the flu spread around the world and had a 2% mortality rate? That was the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
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bligh
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by bligh »

Not rejoicing for sure. Like cbs2002 this is my biggest unrealized loss ever as well. I had been through 2008 but my portfolio was tiny. December 2018 was the most recent plunge that hurt but it was less painful that this. I have lost several years worth of annual living expenses at this point.

I have been staying the course and will continue to do so even as I expect the market to continue to drop further. At least another 10% but probably another 20%. There is definitely going to be a recession. But I will re-balance into equities and maintain my asset allocation.

I suppose the silver lining in all this is that according to livesoft's rule of car buying I can now afford some really nice cars. Not that I feel like going out and buying any of them. :oops:
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bligh
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by bligh »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 am For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years leaving giving greater returns.
If I was that close to retirement I'd just maintain my asset allocation and move forward. I wouldn't get aggressive in this environment. The reason you are seeing these massive swings everyday is because new information is constantly coming in and no one knows how this pandemic is going to turn out. everyone is hoping it will fizzle out, but it has the potential to be a major disaster.
Vision
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Vision »

Me, I'm buying the dip.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by BoggledHead2 »

wolf359 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:20 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am If you have 7 figures you shouldn’t have significant equity exposure

As someone looking to attain 7 figures, I welcome these downturns. Although I am not rejoicing, as it comes from human suffering rather than some economic/corporate greed fall out that it usually is

The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
The seasonal flu is an established disease. COVID-19 is ten times more lethal than the flu. The key word is "new." It's still new, and it hasn't spread through the population yet. The fear is about what it would look like if it is allowed to spread unmonitored and unconstrained. You can't fairly compare COVID-19 fatalities on day 90 to flu.

Would there be panic and alarm if the flu spread around the world and had a 2% mortality rate? That was the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
Yeah, it’s “new” ... hence the hysteria.
Mode32
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Mode32 »

bligh wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:23 am
Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 am For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years leaving giving greater returns.
If I was that close to retirement I'd just maintain my asset allocation and move forward. I wouldn't get aggressive in this environment. The reason you are seeing these massive swings everyday is because new information is constantly coming in and no one knows how this pandemic is going to turn out. everyone is hoping it will fizzle out, but it has the potential to be a major disaster.
I see your point, and nothing is for certain (past performance isn’t indicative of previous performance). But, could one also look at it like the market generally grows over a course of 4-7 years even with all the episodes of intermittent chaos in between which result in the 8-10% (approximate) returns with equities you often hear about with a buy and hold strategy.

Why would this situation be any different, and why shouldn’t folks nearing (3-4 years) retirement still try to capitalize on buying stocks on sale (while maintaining desired AA ranges)? Am I missing something big and glaring? Isn’t life expectancy longer, so wouldn’t we buy on sale now and hold for all practical purposes for a long time any way?
jwa
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by jwa »

lauberge49 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 am I am 70, retired, and was at 40/60 AA at the peak. This week, I switched to 60/40, and may go 70/30 if this continues. I have to do RMD’s starting this year but IRA is all in bonds, so comfortable with that. I am in a position that, if I need to increase my allocation in stocks, I will have to own stocks in my IRA.......we also have a bit of cash on the sidelines if need be..........looking rough at the open this Thursday morning........seat belt fastened, but probably will not make another move until 2021..........luck and good health to all........
You don’t have to do RMD’s this year, if you don’t want to. The law changed first of the year and it is now age 72.
cbs2002
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by cbs2002 »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 am For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years giving greater returns if I sold some from stable value and bought more SP500 index fund. I know it’s an individual choice, but wondering what some people’s opinions are.
I can only speak for my own position. When I'm 3-4 years out, I'm getting close to the time that my portfolio is a source of income that I'm reliant on, rather than frosting on the cake. I would be sticking to an equity position that allows me to sleep at night, which all depends on your personal needs. I'm not sure what that will be for me but Vanguard target date 2020 is averaging 5% post-tax since 2006 with a 50/50 split. 5% post-tax sounds pretty luxurious to me!
Thesaints
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Thesaints »

By the OP’s same argument, Bezos and Buffett should be at least contemplating suicide.
In fact, the wealthier one is, the more indifferent one becomes. Google, “diminishing marginal value of money”
Kagord
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Kagord »

Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
bligh wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:23 am
Mode32 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 am For all the ones who have experienced economic down turns like this (or worse), is it a foolish idea to purchase more stocks when you are 3-4 years away from retirement and currently have 57% SP 500 index fund/43% Stable Value fund (basically, a money market).

I feel comfortable with 55-60%/40-45% AA. The way I see it is that stocks are on sale and markets would likely bounce back in 4-7 years leaving giving greater returns.
If I was that close to retirement I'd just maintain my asset allocation and move forward. I wouldn't get aggressive in this environment. The reason you are seeing these massive swings everyday is because new information is constantly coming in and no one knows how this pandemic is going to turn out. everyone is hoping it will fizzle out, but it has the potential to be a major disaster.
I see your point, and nothing is for certain (past performance isn’t indicative of previous performance). But, could one also look at it like the market generally grows over a course of 4-7 years even with all the episodes of intermittent chaos in between which result in the 8-10% (approximate) returns with equities you often hear about with a buy and hold strategy.

Why would this situation be any different, and why shouldn’t folks nearing (3-4 years) retirement still try to capitalize on buying stocks on sale (while maintaining desired AA ranges)? Am I missing something big and glaring? Isn’t life expectancy longer, so wouldn’t we buy on sale now and hold for all practical purposes for a long time any way?
IMHO it depends on your asset base/minimum yearly draw calc:
25X-30X maybe now is 20X-25X, maybe tough it out.
50X+, you can take some risk if you so choose, that's how I view it anyways, it's a choice between capital preservation and greed at this point. I think the ultra wealth view capital preservation as more of a priority, have no proof of this, just a feeling (by ultra wealthy, I mean 100M+, charter jet..etc)
Ferdinand2014
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

I do not rejoice over others misery. I am not feeling greed or fear at the moment. My focus is my weekly contribution every Friday regardless. I am not adding extra beyond my weekly contribution, nor am I selling. I have no TV or social media connections. My S&P 500 fund is down over $250,000. I am 15 years from retirement.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett
MathWizard
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by MathWizard »

7 figures. Not rejoicing, because I know plenty of people are suffering.

I am not worried, neither is my wife. She was more concerned than me about
finances in 2008/9, but told me this morning that she thinks we are fine. I run
the numbers, and I agree as well.

I am waiting for the dust to settle, at least short term, to rebalance.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by BoggledHead2 »

My fiancé is very conservative, I’m very aggressive

Combined we have years of expenses in an emergency fund + house down payment maturing in a CD

I am not “rejoicing”, but I am buying every drop as soon as the money becomes available. (20+ year horizon, INT at 2011 prices)
anon3838
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by anon3838 »

I am definitely NOT rejoicing, and I'm thankful I found this community when I did.

I am grateful to the wise ones here who repeat the same advise in nearly every thread...(looking at you KlangFool!)

Also grateful for the 2008 post started by Sheepdog about what it felt like during 2008. I stayed the course in 2008, and didn't touch my investments, but I was in an accumulation phase and had job security. Reading that discussion felt...raw. After reading that, I decided to change my AA from 100% equities to 70/30. That was early February 2020.

I will continue to rebalance based on my IPS (thanks to boglehead community for teaching me about IPS!).
Mrxyz
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Mrxyz »

Apologies for cross posting but..........

So, is it 'wrong' to move money from bonds to stocks when stocks are (relatively) cheaper?
I know the AA gets changed and it is market timing, but is there not an obvious advantage to buy stocks at 'discount'?
I moved my AA to 60-40 from 75-25 recently just because it was stock heavy before etc. And now this 15% money (which is substantial 400K), which I moved to bonds can be moved back to stocks to buy them at 'discount'.

Educate me!
Thanks
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watchnerd
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by watchnerd »

Mrxyz wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:16 am Apologies for cross posting but..........

So, is it 'wrong' to move money from bonds to stocks when stocks are (relatively) cheaper?
I know the AA gets changed and it is market timing, but is there not an obvious advantage to buy stocks at 'discount'?
I moved my AA to 60-40 from 75-25 recently just because it was stock heavy before etc. And now this 15% money (which is substantial 400K), which I moved to bonds can be moved back to stocks to buy them at 'discount'.

Educate me!
Thanks
You're asking about rebalancing.

Perhaps you should start a new thread, or peruse the wiki, rather than forking this one?
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HokeyPokey2020
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by HokeyPokey2020 »

"Rejoice", sorry..no. The word is caution and then containment. The well-being of health is our top priority and the sooner we accept this the sooner the financial crisis will end.

Lots of pain and suffering and even death. Not a time to rejoice but to be proactive and take care of your health, family and community. If you see a financial opportunity go for it but this event will leave an indelible memory for generations to come.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by KyleAAA »

I am not rejoicing. People are dying and even more people's livelihoods are at risk because they can't go to work. Most of us are going to be just fine, but not everyone is so fortunate.

Besides, my long term treasuries are no longer going up.
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Ged
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Ged »

70 year old retiree with what was a 60% bond / 40% equity portfolio. I suppose when I rebalance and the market recovers I'll be ok or maybe even better off.

Definitely not rejoicing though. This sort of thing always causes economic dislocations that can affect family members very negatively.
Irisheyes
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Irisheyes »

Niece who works with Trivago (travel website) had 5% of her coworkers laid off today.
Second niece who works as a tv producer on a reality tv show that is set in various exotic destinations had the next season cancelled, so she is now out of work.

Not rejoicing. Easy come, easy go as far as the stock market is concerned. I'm 33% stock/67% bond and have been fearful as the stock market made ever new highs over the last year or so. Gradually pared down stock from 40 to 33%.

This was coming one way or another.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:31 am Niece who works with Trivago (travel website) had 5% of her coworkers laid off today.
Second niece who works as a tv producer on a reality tv show that is set in various exotic destinations had the next season cancelled, so she is now out of work.

Not rejoicing. Easy come, easy go as far as the stock market is concerned. I'm 33% stock/67% bond and have been fearful as the stock market made ever new highs over the last year or so. Gradually pared down stock from 40 to 33%.

This was coming one way or another.
2019s gains were absurd, coronavirus just the excuse for the overdue collapse/bear
Irisheyes
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Irisheyes »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:34 am
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:31 am Niece who works with Trivago (travel website) had 5% of her coworkers laid off today.
Second niece who works as a tv producer on a reality tv show that is set in various exotic destinations had the next season cancelled, so she is now out of work.

Not rejoicing. Easy come, easy go as far as the stock market is concerned. I'm 33% stock/67% bond and have been fearful as the stock market made ever new highs over the last year or so. Gradually pared down stock from 40 to 33%.

This was coming one way or another.
2019s gains were absurd, coronavirus just the excuse for the overdue collapse/bear
Agree.

It feels unreal now to see money dissolve but it feel equally unreal over the last few months seeing it accumulate almost without pause.
effigy98
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by effigy98 »

Not rejoicing, but defiantly content as I moved to a defensive portfolio when CAPE was too high and SMA 180 hit. The only positive thing I see is my CAPE adjusted SWR rate finally went over 4% (haven't seen that for several years) again so my spreadsheet lit up green like a Christmas tree to tell me everything is alright.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ososnilknarf »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by BoggledHead2 »

ososnilknarf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:59 am The seasonal flu has killed 30000 more people than this new virus, wonder where that hysteria is though
I also think this reaction is overdone, however I don't think the comparison to the seasonal flu is relevant. The hysteria is not about how many people have died so far, it is about how many are projected to die.
Looking at just the US alone I've heard estimates anywhere from 20% to 70% will get the virus, with mortality rate estimates around 2-3%, on the most conservative side the math works out to:
330 million people * 20% = 66 million cases * 2% = 1.32 million deaths

That is a lot more concerning than the seasonal flu.
The 2018 flu was killing 4,000 Americans PER WEEK

but people have heard of the flu, so less media frenzy.

* I am showering 2x day, “social distancing”, and washing hands more than ever ... not completely ignoring, but the current hysteria is just insane
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ruralavalon
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by ruralavalon »

Jimsad wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 am I personally am trying to stay put but the losses are beginning to sting when they are in multiples of 100k to my portfolio.

I think it is easier for folks with smaller portfolios to post comments like “I wish market will drop another 30%”

How many of you with large portfolios are wishing for bigger drops in the market ?
We are not rejoicing. We are definitely more concerned about health effects for ourselves and others than about financial effects.
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Random Poster
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Random Poster »

I am not.

And I think that those that are doing so publicly should perhaps do some self-reflection and consider why they feel the need to so announce?
swaption
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by swaption »

Why would I rejoice? Companies I own in the near term are going to lose a lot of money. This whole portfolio thing tends to distance folks from the reality of what is happening. If you own a lot of those companies, it's going to hurt a lot. This question of rejoice or not to rejoice implies some expectation of what will happen in the future. I don't think that is constructive at all.
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watchnerd
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by watchnerd »

Random Poster wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:06 pm
And I think that those that are doing so publicly should perhaps do some self-reflection and consider why they feel the need to so announce?

+1

Schadenfreude is not a good look.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Caduceus »

Mrxyz wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:16 am Apologies for cross posting but..........

So, is it 'wrong' to move money from bonds to stocks when stocks are (relatively) cheaper?
I know the AA gets changed and it is market timing, but is there not an obvious advantage to buy stocks at 'discount'?
I moved my AA to 60-40 from 75-25 recently just because it was stock heavy before etc. And now this 15% money (which is substantial 400K), which I moved to bonds can be moved back to stocks to buy them at 'discount'.

Educate me!
Thanks
I'm not a big fan of asset allocation - the idea that one must have a certain percentage in stocks and a certain percentage in bonds and use re-balancing to keep them in a certain allocation. If I were in your position, I'd most certainly sell the bonds to buy the stocks, but only if you are genuinely able to hold them for the long term.

At current bond yields, only a sucker would believe that equities will under-perform bonds over a long period of time. You are almost certain to "win" - so to speak - as long as after you've sold bonds and bought equities, you don't panic if the market goes any lower.
Normchad
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Normchad »

Still not rejoicing here. But I am tax loss harvesting. And I am buying equities today.

We talk a lot on these boards about our ability to take risk. And the common advice is to brace yourself for a 50% drop in the future. That future may be here. It seems like a lot of people are tolerating it fairly well, while others are not.

I wish the best for everybody.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by CMLAW1 »

I’m a total newbie to all of this but have a large portfolio. My rebalancing bands according to my IPS are 5%. So when I fall behind that I just sell bonds and buy stocks? Is it ok if I do it in my brokerage account?

I don’t have any bonds in IRA or 401k.
lauberge49
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by lauberge49 »

jwa wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 am
lauberge49 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 am I am 70, retired, and was at 40/60 AA at the peak. This week, I switched to 60/40, and may go 70/30 if this continues. I have to do RMD’s starting this year but IRA is all in bonds, so comfortable with that. I am in a position that, if I need to increase my allocation in stocks, I will have to own stocks in my IRA.......we also have a bit of cash on the sidelines if need be..........looking rough at the open this Thursday morning........seat belt fastened, but probably will not make another move until 2021..........luck and good health to all........
You don’t have to do RMD’s this year, if you don’t want to. The law changed first of the year and it is now age 72.
Actually, I was 70 1/2 in 2019 so did not get covered by the new law.......
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amp
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by amp »

I retired early in 2018. Since one of my main concerns was sequence of returns risk I dropped my AA down to 55/45 when I hit my number. Over the last year and a half it had crept up to 60/40 but now I'm back to where I was when I retired. So I'm not rejoicing, but this sort of situation is exactly what I prepared for.

After the long bull market I still don't have any losses to TLH, but I will do so when the opportunity arises. And I intend to rebalance if my AA drops down to 50/50.
Last edited by amp on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Post by Chip Shot »

No rejoicing here. 3-4 yrs out from retirement. AA was 48/52 at market peak. 40/60 now. I probably should be re-balancing, but can't seem to pull the trigger. When we get back near previous high, I will probably pull back my AA to 30-70.
I really didnt have a need to take the risk that I was taking, even with my conservative AA
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