officially bear market ...

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k1982
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officially bear market ...

Post by k1982 »

what is your prediction for the bottom?
today as of 3/11/2011 we are 20% from previous all time high

my prediction is 3% gain tomorrow :)
then 5% down Friday

and total losses of 42% by summer

im so lost nowadays that im beginning to think
"i know nothing. nobody knows anything"

however, im staying very calm thru this so that is a good sign
im trying to look at all angles and thru different lenses all the hypothetical scenerios
it will get better ..eventually
AA 87/13
Topic Author
k1982
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by k1982 »

error 3/11/2020 :)
haha
RubyTuesday
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by RubyTuesday »

Dow appears down over 20%, S&P still slightly above bear territory
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
veggivet
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by veggivet »

All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
jebmke
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by jebmke »

RubyTuesday wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:53 pm Dow appears down over 20%, S&P still slightly above bear territory
Overweight of Boeing in Dow compared to broader indices.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
teelainen
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by teelainen »

veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
Hopefully it is only 40-50% like you said. Hopefully it will not be 60-70%.
PackersFan12
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by PackersFan12 »

Stay the course.
Mr.Wu
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Mr.Wu »

and the small cap value fund is down 34% from peak....
Godot
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Godot »

veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
I don't know why the boglehead default worst scenario decline is always 50%. It could easily be more than that.
Estragon: I can't go on like this. | Vladimir: That's what you think. | ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
Money Market
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Money Market »

Once it drops 20% or more after the end of the trading day, we can stop having doomsday comments like "the longest bull market in history", "10 year bull market". In December 2018, the S&P 500 hit a 20% loss during intraday trading, so I'm not so sure it counts, but if it does, then this is the end of a 13 month bull market.
veggivet
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by veggivet »

Godot wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:00 pm
veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
I don't know why the boglehead default worst scenario decline is always 50%. It could easily be more than that.
You are correct, of course. Your guess is just as likely as mine; but keep in mind they're both just guesses. :happy
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
minimalistmarc
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by minimalistmarc »

veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
Music to my ears, fear and doom. I love buying more when people are too scared. And yes, saying that you are calmly awaiting a 50% drop before you smoothly put your money in is pure fear.
veggivet
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by veggivet »

No fear here, I've been adding to positions (in small bites) on the RBDs, just like I did in 08-09.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
milktoast
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by milktoast »

Right now sp500 trading at monday's close 2746.

Don't think that makes it an official bear market. Needs to drop to around 2708 to be 20% down from the highest close.

That said, it's kinda silly to have that type of arbitrary cutoff. This is as bad as Dec 2018, unclear if it gets worse.
MotoTrojan
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by MotoTrojan »

milktoast wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:39 pm Right now sp500 trading at monday's close 2746.

Don't think that makes it an official bear market. Needs to drop to around 2708 to be 20% down from the highest close.

That said, it's kinda silly to have that type of arbitrary cutoff. This is as bad as Dec 2018, unclear if it gets worse.
Nice today it has dipped into proper bear territory today, but not looking like it will close that way.
theorist
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by theorist »

Now even the Dow is up a bit from its low. We still haven’t closed with a 20% drop in the major indices, so the “longest bull market” nonsense can in principle continue for another day at least. (Unless it drops sharply from where it is now in the last minutes of trading!)
KyleAAA
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by KyleAAA »

Gonna stand by my original 25-30% drop because I have no idea and it's as good a guess as any.
milktoast
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by milktoast »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:41 pm
Nice today it has dipped into proper bear territory today, but not looking like it will close that way.
Intraday low today seems to be about 20.1% down from intraday high of 3393.

But... yeah... in theory a bear involves multiple months in the >20% down territory. Saying we experienced a four minute bear market isn't very compelling.

Ignoring arbitrary cutoffs, we have a market that is clearly deep in correction and trying to decide whether to become a longer and deeper bear.
wolf359
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by wolf359 »

Godot wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:00 pm
veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
I don't know why the boglehead default worst scenario decline is always 50%. It could easily be more than that.
It's easy to calculate 1/2 of your current portfolio. And it's scary enough. It's just shorthand, though.

Keep in mind that the guidance is to be prepared for the market to decline 50% AT ANY TIME. And that could be AFTER the first 50% decline.

The Wall Street Crash of 1929 was actually a series of crashes over time, ultimately ending up reaching the bottom in 1932 at -89%. From the perspective of the people who lived through it (such as "The Great Depression, A Diary by Benjamin Roth"), it was a crash, then a recovery for about 8 months, then another big crash, etc. Things got bad, the economy appeared to turn around, then things collapsed again. By the bottom, prices looked low, but few had any money to do anything about it.
rustymutt
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by rustymutt »

And we may have bottom here, or we may not have a bottom here. Since I'm not hurting for money, I'll ride this out. I sure as the heck don't know what this markets doing. It's gotten my attention we're over due for this. Trending downward for another year, maybe two. Gasp
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
LiterallyIronic
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by LiterallyIronic »

rustymutt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm Since I'm not hurting for money, I'll ride this out.
I am. Figures that this would happen right after we buy a car. My liquidity is scary low right now.
veggivet
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by veggivet »

LiterallyIronic wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm
rustymutt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm Since I'm not hurting for money, I'll ride this out.
I am. Figures that this would happen right after we buy a car. My liquidity is scary low right now.
On the bright side, gas prices are heading south, though not as fast as stock prices...
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
theorist
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by theorist »

And, we have an official bear market! (Dow.)
Busdrvr
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Busdrvr »

theorist wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:00 pm And, we have an official bear market!
Technically not since S&P did not close at req’d level. See, there’s some good news!
theorist
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by theorist »

Busdrvr wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:03 pm
theorist wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:00 pm And, we have an official bear market!
Technically not since S&P did not close at req’d level. See, there’s some good news!
Sorry, I meant in the Dow Jones. I think it counts, since WSJ thinks so. 😈
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by tvubpwcisla »

Picked up some more equities today! Can't wait for tomorrow, hoping for a huge drop at the open! :moneybag
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TinyElvis
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by TinyElvis »

A bear market seems like something that you "ease into" over a longer amount of time. This just seems like madness with no end in sight. I've always stayed the course during my investment lifetime but this is unsettling.
"Give a cat a fish and it will eat for a day. Teach a cat to fish and it will just sit there waiting for you to give it a fish."
misterjohnny
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by misterjohnny »

veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:15 pm No fear here, I've been adding to positions (in small bites) on the RBDs, just like I did in 08-09.
Me too. Moved some bonds to S&P 500 today. about 10% of my total portfolio. Was at 70-30 going in.
BoggledHead2
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by BoggledHead2 »

TinyElvis wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:06 pm A bear market seems like something that you "ease into" over a longer amount of time. This just seems like madness with no end in sight. I've always stayed the course during my investment lifetime but this is unsettling.
“Madness with no end in sight” = time to buy
ukbogler
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by ukbogler »

teelainen wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:57 pm
Hopefully it is only 40-50% like you said. Hopefully it will not be 60-70%.
That's the Hussman prediction. Not looking so silly now, is he?
Busdrvr
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Busdrvr »

misterjohnny wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:06 pm
veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:15 pm No fear here, I've been adding to positions (in small bites) on the RBDs, just like I did in 08-09.
Me too. Moved some bonds to S&P 500 today. about 10% of my total portfolio. Was at 70-30 going in.
I’ve bought spy every day this week. And every day it goes lower. Like clockwork.
Engaging in sloth
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Engaging in sloth »

I have followed and been in the market for many years. This overreaction is pure panic. When will this end? answer: the moment the WHO says virus has lessened or is contained. The result- the market will immediately sky rocket back to high or near-high levels.
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whodidntante
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by whodidntante »

theorist wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:42 pm Now even the Dow is up a bit from its low. We still haven’t closed with a 20% drop in the major indices, so the “longest bull market” nonsense can in principle continue for another day at least. (Unless it drops sharply from where it is now in the last minutes of trading!)
Regardless of what happens, someone who doesn't want to admit that the drop is significant will come along to explain why we shouldn't care about it.
staustin
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by staustin »

Engaging in sloth wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:36 pm I have followed and been in the market for many years. This overreaction is pure panic. When will this end? answer: the moment the WHO says virus has lessened or is contained. The result- the market will immediately sky rocket back to high or near-high levels.
Depends on the amount of damage done to the economy in the meantime. and the amount of leverage in the system. no one has any idea right but if we're in a severe recession when the pandemic ends the market certainly won't be rocketing back up.
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Noobvestor
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Noobvestor »

Just eyeballing the charts, looks like we're back to 2018 lows in the US market. Yawn. International and small cap value, however, are back to 2015 territory, which seems like a good time to rebalance if those are in your allocation! Stocking up, as usual and per my plan.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

I predict any prediction I make will be wrong. I'm just following my plan. Turning the crank.
PJW
MoneyMarathon
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by MoneyMarathon »

ukbogler wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:10 pm
teelainen wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:57 pm
Hopefully it is only 40-50% like you said. Hopefully it will not be 60-70%.
That's the Hussman prediction. Not looking so silly now, is he?
Since you asked, yes, it does sound silly.
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watchnerd
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by watchnerd »

teelainen wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:57 pm
Hopefully it is only 40-50% like you said. Hopefully it will not be 60-70%.
That would certainly sting a bit.

Fortunately, we keep only 35% of our net worth in stocks (although 70% of investment portfolio).
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
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fredflinstone
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by fredflinstone »

veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:54 pm All indexes will be in bear territory by weeks' end. Total loss from top to bottom could be between 40-50%, depending on how bad we botch this thing. So far, so not good.
Yes, the total loss could be between 40-50 percent, like you said. Or we could be at the bottom now. Or we could see a decline of 80 percent or more. Nobody knows.
Stocks 28 / Gold 23 / Long-term US treasuries 19 / Cash (mainly CDs) 22 / TIPS 8
palaheel
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by palaheel »

I fear this drop is my fault. On February 19, I informed my administration that I would retire at the end of this semester. Murphy's dark humor obviously could not contain itself.

To those of my age, I apologize.

To the youngsters among us, you're welcome. You can send your thanks later.
Markets crash. Markets recover. Inflation takes your money FOREVER.
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watchnerd
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by watchnerd »

palaheel wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:14 pm I fear this drop is my fault. On February 19, I informed my administration that I would retire at the end of this semester. Murphy's dark humor obviously could not contain itself.

To those of my age, I apologize.

To the youngsters among us, you're welcome. You can send your thanks later.
Oh, man, and you could have waited for the recession and that sweet layoff package, too.....
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by UpsetRaptor »

S&P will now probably be a bear tomorrow too; futures down a lot.

How long of a bear?

I posted in another thread, but I find it difficult to envision a scenario where coronavirus is a major global problem 2-3 years down the road. If that.
SlowlySaving
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by SlowlySaving »

This whole thing is NUTS!! I am also thinking it will drop 40%-50% due to all the factors involved.
All these cancelled meetings, events, schools etc is going to have an impact on the economy and the market in the near future. Once all these affected industries report earnings there will be another hit to the market. NO ONE KNOWS, but my guess is it is only going to get worse in the near future.

Watch this video of Joe Rogan interviewing Michael Osterholm in regards to the Coronavirus to give a perspective where we are at. Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&fbclid

We are in uncharted territory.

Peace!
k1982 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:50 pm what is your prediction for the bottom?
today as of 3/11/2011 we are 20% from previous all time high

my prediction is 3% gain tomorrow :)
then 5% down Friday

and total losses of 42% by summer

im so lost nowadays that im beginning to think
"i know nothing. nobody knows anything"
\
capjak
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by capjak »

[quote=

I’ve bought spy every day this week. And every day it goes lower. Like clockwork.
[/quote]
Please stop buying. 🙏
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dmcmahon
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by dmcmahon »

2400 on S&P 500. That’s straight from my ouija board and worth every penny you paid for it!
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geerhardusvos
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by geerhardusvos »

LiterallyIronic wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm
rustymutt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm Since I'm not hurting for money, I'll ride this out.
I am. Figures that this would happen right after we buy a car. My liquidity is scary low right now.
Sounds like poor planning or too much car, or a mixture of both. Keep your eye on the prize and your standard of living low. If your employment is stable, low liquidity is not necessarily a bad thing. I have extremely low liquidity, and almost all my money is in the market. But that’s by design
VTSAX and chill
LiterallyIronic
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by LiterallyIronic »

geerhardusvos wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:29 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm
rustymutt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm Since I'm not hurting for money, I'll ride this out.
I am. Figures that this would happen right after we buy a car. My liquidity is scary low right now.
Sounds like poor planning or too much car, or a mixture of both. Keep your eye on the prize and your standard of living low. If your employment is stable, low liquidity is not necessarily a bad thing. I have extremely low liquidity, and almost all my money is in the market. But that’s by design
If you ask me, it's absolutely too much car. $6,700 on a car?! Ridiculous. But my wife wanted a vehicle that could: 1) last the next ten years; and 2) fold the back seats down. So we got a 2015 Kia Soul with 39,000 miles on it. It's dropped our liquid cash down from over $20k to just over $15k and I don't like it. I want to get back to $20k as soon as possible.
Alan S.
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Alan S. »

If the market hates uncertainty, these events portend major damage. This is not going to be one of those recessions that will be over before it's announced.

The problem is that much of the corporate, medical, and social hysteria is snowballing at an unheard of rate, and much of it is driven by fear of lawsuits. If all components of a sector do not fall in line, and just one person catches the virus as a result the company is going to be on the hook. The media does not want to mention this. If the govt trys to bail out individuals and corporations starting from the current national debt level, the credit rating agencies will eventually have an interesting decision to make.

Once rumors of a break in the food supply start to surface, there will be a run on all the stores. Even people who look at this as overblown and are not prone to panic will themselves be forced into survival mode at that time.

The 2008 meltdown was slow compared to this. Any historians recall going from a bull market multi year high into bear territory in under 4 weeks? Even when the Oct, 1987 single day crash of 22% occurred, it wasn't fresh off a market high.
Abk911
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Abk911 »

misterjohnny wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:06 pm
veggivet wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:15 pm No fear here, I've been adding to positions (in small bites) on the RBDs, just like I did in 08-09.
Me too. Moved some bonds to S&P 500 today. about 10% of my total portfolio. Was at 70-30 going in.
Moved some (rather plenty) of bonds to stocks today. Don't know where it will go but for now seemed some kinda immediate discount. Know it's more down tomorrow / may see if I can move some more. May be I am wrong but I feel changing to 100 pct stock won't be a bad idea. Considering it's going down anyways and more stocks that can be snagged the better. But what do I know.
Elena
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Re: officially bear market ...

Post by Elena »

Engaging in sloth wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:36 pm I have followed and been in the market for many years. This overreaction is pure panic. When will this end? answer: the moment the WHO says virus has lessened or is contained. The result- the market will immediately sky rocket back to high or near-high levels.
Exactly, OR the second someone announces there is a vaccine.
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