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Another Timing Question

Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:13 pm
by DJP1944
Stocks from megacorps just vested. The net vested shares are now in my brokerage account as megacorps stock. I will sell these and purchase FSKAX per my IPS. Given all that, this is a tricky week to be doing this.

Any thoughts on mitigating risk? One thought I guess is to sell immediately (tomorrow) and then DCA a bit on the re-purchase. Or, another thought is to sell ASAP and then purchase ASAP.

As I write this I realize I am probably over thinking it....but thoughts?

Thanks much.

Re: Another Timing Question

Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:18 pm
by sailaway
What did you do the last time they vested?

I would think that the single most common lesson from the last few days of trading would be to just follow the plan and take the lumps. It won't be perfect, but trying to time the market usually ends up less perfect.

The general advice around here is to sell the stocks and buy the funds ASAP.

Re: Another Timing Question

Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:59 pm
by tdmp
Statitically: better to lump sum it. I like statistics on my side.
Vanguard looked into this: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
100% equity: lump sum wins 67% of the time vs. 33% for DCA
Saying all this, you lump sum it and market has downturn of 30% in next 2 months for whatever reason; and you might regret it or lose sleep. So do whatever it takes so you can "stay the course."

Re: Another Timing Question

Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:14 am
by DJP1944
tdmp wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:59 pm Statitically: better to lump sum it. I like statistics on my side.
Vanguard looked into this: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
100% equity: lump sum wins 67% of the time vs. 33% for DCA
Saying all this, you lump sum it and market has downturn of 30% in next 2 months for whatever reason; and you might regret it or lose sleep. So do whatever it takes so you can "stay the course."
Yeah, this is one of those posts where you know what to do but just look for confirmation. I sold this morning and will buy back (FSKAX) when funds are available.