protagonist wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:42 amTomcat....I am curious....
If your first statement above is true, then it would follow that the market, as well as the media, would be significantly downplaying the risk.
So I am curious,,,,if you believe your first statement above to be true, why do you remain 99.69% in stocks? That strikes me as logically contradictory and extremely risky- you are not "preparing adequately" (your words). Yes, panic helps nobody, but having all your eggs in the stock market given your rather strong belief that things are a lot worse than suggested or acknowledged strikes me as the opposite- foolhardy at best.
JoeRetire wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:29 pmClearly you win the "I said it first" award for the Bogleheads site.
Hopefully, you profited mightily from your clear advanced knowledge and insight.
Did you bet the house?
It's time I come clean.
I bet the house.
I never considered myself a true boglehead. But I knew the math, know the throngs of research papers saying the market can't be beat, and it's right there on my IPS.
Last Tuesday I gave all that up. Sold everything and bought into government treasuries. I am 10/90 at the moment with 10% in a single stock, and 90% in bonds.
I might eat crow. I might get egg on my face.
But based on all my research on this matter, I think I made the right call.
Still though it is only fair to my critics and detractors to give them a fair shot at me.
As per my so called research on this matter, I post here quite frequently. The entire evolution of my thoughts on this matter laid itself out in a very public way. I certainly didn't start out by throwing away my IPS.
I believe this is a once in a lifetime occurrence. I believe efforts to analogize this to anything else: SARS, Ebola, Aids, will result in a blocked insight.
Not every event that goes forward in the future can be neatly categorized by a bucket of your past experiences.
This is one such event.