im wanting a small correction very soon

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prairieman
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by prairieman » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:34 pm

In 2010 my brother took me out for breakfast and scared me into selling perfectly good stock assets and holding cash so that I could buy after the market tanked again. I lost 30K in a short amount of time before deciding my brother’s advice was stupid, took my lumps, and got back in. I haven’t precisely quantified the net effect (too painful) but, assuming that lost 30k would have doubled once or twice since then, I think that breakfast cost me between 60 and 120K in today’s dollars.
I’m relating this story because I feel the OP missed a big run up while waiting for a drop. In my case, had I kept waiting for the drop, I’d have lost much more. Sure you miss the drops when you’re out, but odds are more likely that you will miss the big gains, too.

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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by abuss368 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:37 pm

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
is it weird of me that im almost praying for a small ~ 15-20% correction soon?

the market has been on rocket fuel since 2009

why am i wanting a correction?
maybe since i only been in the market for a few months and its scares me that once i start building up my portfolio ...we will get hit harder than before. i rather feel the little burn now

im 38
AA 75/25
and yes i feel comfortable with it
Tune the noise out and stay the course. Market timing has been proven to not work.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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k1982
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by k1982 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:41 pm

i love this quote from that JP Morgan chart/ article

Paying overly close attention to vagaries of the market isn’t good for you. It’s a bit like sausage I guess: you don’t want to see how it is made, just enjoy the end result.

:):):)

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k1982
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by k1982 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:44 pm

so i just have to cancel my cable..get a cell phone from the 90s with no internet and no notifications..
and ill be stressed free
(put your account on automatic contributions monthly)

no more worrying about the stock market ...and sleeping much better
right?
easier said than done
haha

Unladen_Swallow
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:14 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:44 pm
so i just have to cancel my cable..get a cell phone from the 90s with no internet and no notifications..
and ill be stressed free
(put your account on automatic contributions monthly)

no more worrying about the stock market ...and sleeping much better
right?
easier said than done
haha
Do you think that is what the rest of everyone are doing? Cancelling cable and internet?

They are not. They are just being calm, rational, and mature about this. And sleep well.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

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k1982
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by k1982 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:18 am

i was just being silly
but it all seriousness...

how does the average investor "ignore" the market since we live in this tech age?
you see updates everywhere and anywhere you go

we have our phones stuck to us 24/7
cable is on everywhere
the internet hovers on us 24/7

honestly, i can see this will be my hardest thing to conquer ...my emotions that is ..trying to ignore the market
its going to be a long ride :(

any suggestions?

randomguy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by randomguy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:05 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:53 pm

is it possible to be bull for that long?
almost 2 decades without hitting 30 or 40% downfall
Lets see 1940-1973 I don't think had a 30% drop. Or 1975-2000. Or the 20years before 1929 didn't but I haven't actually seen the intrayear numbers for that period.

30%+ drops are not something that happens on a regular basis. That is what made the 00s so uniquq.

CoastalWinds
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by CoastalWinds » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:15 am

k1982 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:18 am
i was just being silly
but it all seriousness...

how does the average investor "ignore" the market since we live in this tech age?
you see updates everywhere and anywhere you go

we have our phones stuck to us 24/7
cable is on everywhere
the internet hovers on us 24/7

honestly, i can see this will be my hardest thing to conquer ...my emotions that is ..trying to ignore the market
its going to be a long ride :(

any suggestions?
It can be difficult, but one thing that helps is to draft an IPS and follow it to a T.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:51 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
is it weird of me that im almost praying for a small ~ 15-20% correction soon?

the market has been on rocket fuel since 2009

why am i wanting a correction?
maybe since i only been in the market for a few months and its scares me that once i start building up my portfolio ...we will get hit harder than before. i rather feel the little burn now

im 38
AA 75/25
and yes i feel comfortable with it
There was a 20% correction a year ago. December 2018. Did you plow your money into it then? I thought "good time to buy." Then I looked to see when was it last this low? It was that low around a year or so prior. So I thought "that's not really a big drop. If I didn't plow my money in a year ago when it was this price, there's no emergency to do it now."

fujiters
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by fujiters » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:51 am

Sounds like you would love investing in international markets. Total international has gone sideways for well over a decade!
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:55 am

sailaway wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:23 pm
We had a small correction in 2018. It was pretty non eventful, but worked for us because it came at bonus time.
I think 2018 was around 20%!9/21/18-12/24/18 -20.2 percent!

decapod10
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by decapod10 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:56 am

k1982 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:18 am
i was just being silly
but it all seriousness...

how does the average investor "ignore" the market since we live in this tech age?
you see updates everywhere and anywhere you go

we have our phones stuck to us 24/7
cable is on everywhere
the internet hovers on us 24/7

honestly, i can see this will be my hardest thing to conquer ...my emotions that is ..trying to ignore the market
its going to be a long ride :(

any suggestions?
I don't ignore it personally. The more you see it go up and down, the more you get used to it I think. I check all the time since my spreadsheet automatically updates with prices.
But everyone is wired a bit differently.

I've heard someone say that it helped them to look at the number of shares they had rather than account value, continuing to see the number of shares increase as they bought more helped even though the value wasn't really going up.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:58 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:42 pm
dollar cost averaging every month is the way to go...huh?
im still debating if i should dump all my money on January 2nd every year or spread it out monthly

but thats a whole different topic :)
Actually nearly everyone who says they dollar cost average do NOT dollar cost average. DCA is when you have a bunch of money and instead of dumping it all in, you put in smaller pieces over time. Most people who say they DCA put in all their spare money as soon as they have it - eg every paycheck $500 goes into the market. That is not really DCA. I DCA'd a big chunk of money because I was waiting for a crash that never came. I would have been way better off if I just dumped it all in. If you realize that generally the market goes up, you are more likely better off dumping it all in when you have it. DCA is more for psychological reasons than financial reasons.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:03 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:28 pm
im a late bloomer when it comes to investing
i just started at the age of 38
and mine AA 75/25
i know i wont accumulate as much money as someone who started in their early 20's
but im also NOT going to play catch up and do 100% stocks until im 60 cause i know i can get bit real hard easily by doing so
that is why you should decrease your equities once you get close to retirement.

if you are 65-70 years old and are 100% stocks ...then you are playing a dangerous game cause you might have to wait until 75-80 to re coup a downturn

both my mom and dad started out super late in investing
they are around the age of 60 and both have an AA 50/50
but there is no way i would tell them to bet on a single stock to get rich

thats why there is risk in investment
sometimes you lose sometimes you win...but in the long haul you should accumulate some wealth

im just saying i will NOT feel bad when someome starts investing at 60 and bet the whole farm on a single stock...
you should know the rules of the game

i lost hundred of thousands of dollars in online poker back in the 2000s
i knew the risks that were involved ...i got excited over the lure of easy money
and thats why im 38 and still broke. nothing saved.

thats why i started investing and hopefully it will pay off in the next 20 years...day by day..month by month..year by year
i know the risks involved

hopefully everyone knows where im coming from. im not trying to start a fight or anything.
i just dont accept the victim card when it comes to life. i dont want anyone to feel bad for me if my "investment" turns sour
its part of life...you take the risks and hopefully get rewarded

if you dont want the risks involved. that is perfectly fine. dont put any money into anything...
just dont expect others to feel bad for you if your already in retirement and still in 100% in equities
You'll find a lot of self-righteous and judgmental people on this board. Just ignore them.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:03 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:53 pm
funny guy :)
but i get it

i know we aren't supposed to discuss politics or leaders on this forum...
but we all know what's coming to us in the next 4-5 years.
i just don't see a downturn happening for a while.
is it possible to be bull for that long?
almost 2 decades without hitting 30 or 40% downfall
20% downturn Sept 2018-Dec 24 2018.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:06 am

TheDDC wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:07 pm
k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:28 pm
im a late bloomer when it comes to investing
i just started at the age of 38
and mine AA 75/25
i know i wont accumulate as much money as someone who started in their early 20's
but im also NOT going to play catch up and do 100% stocks until im 60 cause i know i can get bit real hard easily by doing so
that is why you should decrease your equities once you get close to retirement.

if you are 65-70 years old and are 100% stocks ...then you are playing a dangerous game cause you might have to wait until 75-80 to re coup a downturn

both my mom and dad started out super late in investing
they are around the age of 60 and both have an AA 50/50
but there is no way i would tell them to bet on a single stock to get rich

thats why there is risk in investment
sometimes you lose sometimes you win...but in the long haul you should accumulate some wealth

im just saying i will NOT feel bad when someome starts investing at 60 and bet the whole farm on a single stock...
you should know the rules of the game

i lost hundred of thousands of dollars in online poker back in the 2000s
i knew the risks that were involved ...i got excited over the lure of easy money
and thats why im 38 and still broke. nothing saved.

thats why i started investing and hopefully it will pay off in the next 20 years...day by day..month by month..year by year
i know the risks involved

hopefully everyone knows where im coming from. im not trying to start a fight or anything.
i just dont accept the victim card when it comes to life. i dont want anyone to feel bad for me if my "investment" turns sour
its part of life...you take the risks and hopefully get rewarded

if you dont want the risks involved. that is perfectly fine. dont put any money into anything...
just dont expect others to feel bad for you if your already in retirement and still in 100% in equities
I am your age and am 100% equities. To clarify, I don’t invest in “stocks”. I invest in index funds - VTSAX and FSKAX which are in the low six digits held in IRAs and a 403(b). The only individual stocks I have are 3 shares of a crap energy pipeline company stock and 5 shares of Disney that my mom bought me back in the late 90s. Total individual stocks for me: $600. Huge difference.

Bonds are generally a performance killer to a long term portfolio, builder, and I still wouldn’t reduce the equity allocation in my 60s. It’s not the 1970s-1980s with double digit inflation anymore, so I don’t expect the bond market to save me.

I do have a 3-6 month emergency fund, expect a state pension of at least 87.5% of salary, and will collect SS, all of which some might consider a “bond”. I don’t.

Happy investing!

-TheDDC
Not only am I older than you, my car is probably almost as old as you and if I look hard I can probably find underpants I still wear older than you! And I'm about 90% equities (VG TSM and IDX500 mostly). I'm planning on working for a good while longer (I'm not SO old actually, but over ten years older than you!) and I plan to work another 15 years full time and continue part time until I die. I'm very slowly beginning to transition into bonds, but my plan entails - no guarantees - continuing to enjoy work and work for a while longer.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:10 am

dru808 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:00 pm
Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:44 pm
Read About Bob, The Worst Market Timer
What happens if you only invested at market highs?
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
Seems like a good case for buying the dip. If it works out at the highs, why not hold out for a dip? I won’t, it will just reinforce the op’s thinking.
The point of the article when I read it - or at least what I took home - was even though Bob bought at the worst time possible, he stayed in and time in the market made up for any other bad decision. Thus if you WAIT for the downturn statistically you're most likely to lose out because you'll miss the upturn too. All your money will be on the sideline instead of invested.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:13 am

Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:14 am
k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:44 pm
so i just have to cancel my cable..get a cell phone from the 90s with no internet and no notifications..
and ill be stressed free
(put your account on automatic contributions monthly)

no more worrying about the stock market ...and sleeping much better
right?
easier said than done
haha
Do you think that is what the rest of everyone are doing? Cancelling cable and internet?

They are not. They are just being calm, rational, and mature about this. And sleep well.
A lot of us canceled cable and ignore the market. There is approximately 0.0% benefit to your life in having cable. Entertainment is pretty bad. News is biased. There's not much there. Just a time suck. I find I read more now since I canceled it and have never ever had any desire to hook it up again.

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dogagility
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by dogagility » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:21 am

prairieman wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:34 pm
In 2010 my brother took me out for breakfast and scared me into selling perfectly good stock assets and holding cash so that I could buy after the market tanked again. I lost 30K in a short amount of time before deciding my brother’s advice was stupid, took my lumps, and got back in. I haven’t precisely quantified the net effect (too painful) but, assuming that lost 30k would have doubled once or twice since then, I think that breakfast cost me between 60 and 120K in today’s dollars.
I’m relating this story because I feel the OP missed a big run up while waiting for a drop. In my case, had I kept waiting for the drop, I’d have lost much more. Sure you miss the drops when you’re out, but odds are more likely that you will miss the big gains, too.
Yes. The market's history has an upward trajectory, and there is no reason to think this won't continue over the long term. Holding "dry powder" waiting for the market to drop is a losing long-term investment strategy.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" -- Warren Buffett

Dottie57
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:27 am

_james wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:43 pm
k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
.... and its scares me...
and yes i feel comfortable with it
Nobody knows when a correction will happen. In any year the market could drop 50%. It could happen this year and the year you retire. This is why we setup and follow our investment plan to manage our risk by adjusting our allocation as we get closer to retirement age. :happy
+1

harvestbook
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by harvestbook » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:31 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:53 pm

but we all know what's coming to us in the next 4-5 years.
i just don't see a downturn happening for a while.
Hmmm, I was left out of this universal knowing of the short-term future. I guess I'll just hold on and keep adding. I'm actually glad I don't know, because if I thought I knew, I'd probably make a lot of mistakes. That's why I don't wish for corrections or booms, because that suckers me into caring too much. Good luck out there.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

aristotelian
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by aristotelian » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:54 am

Sure, anyone who is early accumulation will get biggest bang for buck building the majority of their wealth at the bottom. The problem is if you lose your job or are forced to sell your underwater house due to whatever is causing the market to hit bottom. Be careful what you wish for.

flaccidsteele
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by flaccidsteele » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:13 pm

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
why am i wanting a correction?
maybe since i only been in the market for a few months and its scares me that once i start building up my portfolio ...we will get hit harder than before. i rather feel the little burn now
That's an irrational concern

The US stock market has been going up for over a century. Investors will always get hit "harder than before"

If you want to feel a little burn now, go to the casino the throw some money around
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

vipertom1970
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by vipertom1970 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:17 pm

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:21 pm

we haven't had a 20 year loss yet since the beginning of the stock market. right?
this is the exact reason why young investors in there 20s, 30s or 40s should not worry about adding bonds.

DesertDiva
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by DesertDiva » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:18 pm

DoubleClick wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:37 pm
I'm wanting $10 million very soon...
I want a pony. And a unicorn.

Flyer24
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Flyer24 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:29 pm

As a reminder, post that are political in nature are off topic for this forum. Several posts have been deleted.
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milktoast
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by milktoast » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:37 pm

I want to retire in about 5 yrs. Heavily accumulating right now. From my own selfish perspective, a correction would be helpful. If we continue to see rising CAPE I'm going to be kinda afraid to pull the trigger on retiring - want to retire with that number back below 30.

Luckywon
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by Luckywon » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:33 am

k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
is it weird of me that im almost praying for a small ~ 15-20% correction soon?

the market has been on rocket fuel since 2009

why am i wanting a correction?
maybe since i only been in the market for a few months and its scares me that once i start building up my portfolio ...we will get hit harder than before. i rather feel the little burn now

im 38
AA 75/25
and yes i feel comfortable with it
Be careful what you wish for.

bestplans
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Re: im wanting a small correction very soon

Post by bestplans » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:17 am

Luckywon wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:33 am
k1982 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:55 pm
is it weird of me that im almost praying for a small ~ 15-20% correction soon?

the market has been on rocket fuel since 2009

why am i wanting a correction?
maybe since i only been in the market for a few months and its scares me that once i start building up my portfolio ...we will get hit harder than before. i rather feel the little burn now

im 38
AA 75/25
and yes i feel comfortable with it
Be careful what you wish for.
Indeed :|

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