Time to buy Tesla?

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
tesuzuki2002
Posts: 1165
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

neverpanic wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:31 pm I hear chatter from a lot of people who are buying into the split. The ride to $2000 was fun, I'm cashing out on Monday. I may keep a single share just because.
A single share pre or post split? either way.. congrats... I too have started selling and have been selling a lot of others... Tech has just gone crazy and while it could continue to climb... It has doubled my portfolio and I didn't expect that to happen... I'm taking the win and cashing out.
pasadena
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:23 am
Location: PNW

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by pasadena »

neverpanic wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:31 pm I hear chatter from a lot of people who are buying into the split. The ride to $2000 was fun, I'm cashing out on Monday. I may keep a single share just because.
The ride up has indeed been fun and I'm curious. Right now it's more than twice my cost basis, and it was "fun money" so I decided to ride the split and see what happens. It's also not *a lot* of money.

Thinking of cashing out some after the split. Haven't decided yet, I do like the company and what they're doing. We'll see.
000
Posts: 4646
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 000 »

Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:16 pm
Normchad wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:45 pm
I don't own any stocks, so no exposure to TSLA. The company financial are a fraud. It was before 2018 and still is.
This is a serious allegation. Is there any credible evidence to support it?
Lol. You must be new to TSLA. Google it.
Why not post a link to a credible article? A lot of the hits seem to be articles written by salty TSLA bears.
User avatar
4nursebee
Posts: 1678
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee »

I would welcome evidence of fraud. The claims have been around for years, nary evidence. I don’t consider 420 tweet fraud, certainly not of the shell game money variety everyone hints at.

https://www.businessinsider.com/larry-p ... usk-2014-3
Looks like Larry page likes the guy.

Didn’t some other super rich dude buy stock?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/23/oracle- ... -year.html

Didn’t the former head of the largest pension fund join them?

https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/23/tesla ... t-selling/

How many shares has Musk sold? Or has he only been buying?

These guys all seem like good jockeys to bet on, I am not smart enough to figur the fraud out, but thar money seems to be on this one partikular horse. If they don’t see fraud and want to be part of dis, than so do I. They likely visited the stable, poked around, got da scoop.

B’sides, someone must be gettin sum money, cuz all dis factory stuff keeps get’n built.


I’m sur havn fun passin dem slow cars evry where we travel. Zoom zoom, farhvenuggen, oh what a feelin, built tough, nothin runs like it. Huh, all those ads describe what it really is like to drive my car, sans lying advertising budgets.
Pale Blue Dot
TravelforFun
Posts: 2299
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:05 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by TravelforFun »

tesuzuki2002 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:20 pm
neverpanic wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:31 pm I hear chatter from a lot of people who are buying into the split. The ride to $2000 was fun, I'm cashing out on Monday. I may keep a single share just because.
A single share pre or post split? either way.. congrats... I too have started selling and have been selling a lot of others... Tech has just gone crazy and while it could continue to climb... It has doubled my portfolio and I didn't expect that to happen... I'm taking the win and cashing out.
I bought 280 shares in March at $471 a share, sold 90 shares in early August at $1, 465 a share to recoup my cost basis. I have 190 share left which is pure house money. I set my stop loss at 25% on the 190 shares and just let them ride.

TravelforFun
tdmp
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:12 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by tdmp »

It has been an interesting 15 months for TSLA: back in May 2019 the valuation for TSLA went down to as low as $32.7 billion. Currently, it sits at $382 Billion. TSLA valuation is base on future growth, but not necessarily just vehicles. If it is just about selling cars, then there is no way it can support a market cap of 2x Toyota. Toyota sells roughly 10 million vehicles per year. So if it is just about cars, then yes it is GREATLY overvalued;
Back of napkin math: (base on TSLA as a automotive company ONLY)
-let's say Tesla grows more and sell 3 million vehicle/year by 2025 at about $52K per vehicle. It might be ambitious, but I think doable.
-3 million x $52K = $156 billion in revenue...
-let's say their net earnings is about 6% (similar to Toyota as auto manufacturing): $156 billion x 0.06 = $9.36 billion
-Auto manufacturing has PE of around 10 or so...but since Tesla is growth, let's double that PE: to 20....so $9.36 billion x 20 = $187 billion..
-but now TSLA market cap is $382 billion...that means they have to make up the other $195 billion in value somewhere
-the market is pretty efficient as far as "having all the information." I believe that "value somewhere" is the market is pricing in on future autonomous driving and software for autonomous driving. Many people believe that Tesla will reach level 5 autonomy first. This is debatable b/c there are many in this field ie. Mobile Eye (the original supplier for Tesla; acquired by INTC), Waymo, Cruise, Argo AI, Zoox etc... Also, there might be software that can be licensed and sold to other manufacturer (similar to what Comma AI with open pilot: they sell to individual buyers at $1199/kit) . Another source of revenue is energy component ie. batteries, powerwall, etc...but I think this component won't make up as much revenue as the autonomous driving. If you believe that Tesla is more than an automotive company and can earn a lot more than just by selling cars, then maybe this price is right. Remember, Apple is more than just a computer/phone company; and AMZN is more than just selling books.
-as a point of reference: when Steve Jobs died in 2011, AAPL had a market cap of about $344 billion; it had a TRAILING 12 months earnings of $25.9 Billion. the following year (2012): AAPL earned $41 billion. so at end of 2012 AAPL had market cap of $495 billion
-As for me, I already own enough TSLA in VTSAX and QQQ...so I will pass on this.
User avatar
4nursebee
Posts: 1678
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee »

tdmp wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:37 am It has been an interesting 15 months for TSLA: back in May 2019 the valuation for TSLA went down to as low as $32.7 billion. Currently, it sits at $382 Billion. TSLA valuation is base on future growth, but not necessarily just vehicles. If it is just about selling cars, then there is no way it can support a market cap of 2x Toyota. Toyota sells roughly 10 million vehicles per year. So if it is just about cars, then yes it is GREATLY overvalued;
Back of napkin math: (base on TSLA as a automotive company ONLY)
-let's say Tesla grows more and sell 3 million vehicle/year by 2025 at about $52K per vehicle. It might be ambitious, but I think doable.
-3 million x $52K = $156 billion in revenue...
-let's say their net earnings is about 6% (similar to Toyota as auto manufacturing): $156 billion x 0.06 = $9.36 billion
-Auto manufacturing has PE of around 10 or so...but since Tesla is growth, let's double that PE: to 20....so $9.36 billion x 20 = $187 billion..
-but now TSLA market cap is $382 billion...that means they have to make up the other $195 billion in value somewhere
-the market is pretty efficient as far as "having all the information." I believe that "value somewhere" is the market is pricing in on future autonomous driving and software for autonomous driving. Many people believe that Tesla will reach level 5 autonomy first. This is debatable b/c there are many in this field ie. Mobile Eye (the original supplier for Tesla; acquired by INTC), Waymo, Cruise, Argo AI, Zoox etc... Also, there might be software that can be licensed and sold to other manufacturer (similar to what Comma AI with open pilot: they sell to individual buyers at $1199/kit) . Another source of revenue is energy component ie. batteries, powerwall, etc...but I think this component won't make up as much revenue as the autonomous driving. If you believe that Tesla is more than an automotive company and can earn a lot more than just by selling cars, then maybe this price is right. Remember, Apple is more than just a computer/phone company; and AMZN is more than just selling books.
-as a point of reference: when Steve Jobs died in 2011, AAPL had a market cap of about $344 billion; it had a TRAILING 12 months earnings of $25.9 Billion. the following year (2012): AAPL earned $41 billion. so at end of 2012 AAPL had market cap of $495 billion
-As for me, I already own enough TSLA in VTSAX and QQQ...so I will pass on this.

Amzn p/e is 126
Pale Blue Dot
cowbman
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:10 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by cowbman »

Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:17 pm
cowbman wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:10 pm
Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:07 am
Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:50 am My view of TSLA hasn't changed. The accounting is fraudulent and the stock is probably worthless. But crazy people will do crazy things and run up valuations on worthless stocks - that has happened many times in stock market history. I don't really care what happens, though. I have never bet against a stock by shorting or buying puts. But if your argument is that "the stock went up, therefore this company is legitimately valuable", you must be new to investing.
If you own a total stock market fund then it’s one of your top 10 holdings. If you own an S&P500 fund then you’re about to purchase 20% of the TSLA float. (Last I checked the price seemed pretty high).

“Accounting fraudulent and stock is worthless” so 2018. Along with “He will never make a rocket land itself”.
I don't own any stocks, so no exposure to TSLA. The company financial are a fraud. It was before 2018 and still is. Just take a look at Wirecard as the most recent example of a company that was suspected of fraud for a decade but somehow avoid consequences all that time. So the idea that it hasn't mattered yet means it never well, unfortunately, doesn't hold in the real world.

I have never in my life had anything to see about any of Musk's other companies. But you're conflating two independent issues, you see. I'm not saying the products are a fraud (although there are many who say Tesla cars have serious quality issues, but I don't have an opinion), I'm saying the FINANCIALS are a fraud. You can have a legitimate product wrapped inside of a fraudulent operation.
I don't about the financials, but they did not support the price at $330/share much less $2000/share. That being said, none of the other car companies are able to compete on electric vehicles. The Semi will be much lower to run then current diesel. Elon was planning on offering Megachargers that made it less than rail too. The big one in my book though is there ability to cut the cost on solar panels to almost $1/watt after incentives and the electric market autotrader software they've developed. The cult following was keeping the price high, but now the market is pricing in that TSLA will conquer autos and the electric market. If it does, that would make it probably a top 5 or 10 company. (It's 11 as of 8/22/2020).

https://youtu.be/9h_CL1JxbCU
Now tell me how much capital would need to be raised to allow Tesla to "conquer autos and the electric market". Since the company doesn't actually make any money, all of that capital will need to be raised from investors. Are they going to continue to buy shares endlessly as they get diluted?
I believe at the last investor call they indicated they are making money now.
BanquetBeer
Posts: 494
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:57 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by BanquetBeer »

cowbman wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:04 pm I believe at the last investor call they indicated they are making money now.
I was pretty sure this quarter determines S&P500 inclusion. Wouldn't that indicate they were profitable for the last 3 quarters?
flyphotoguy
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:57 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by flyphotoguy »

Have it through ARK, I saw their CEO do an interview a year or 2 ago and have been mulling buying their ETF since. Only pulled the trigger beginning of this year so I guess I bought tesla indirectly... Planning to buy and hold the ETF for a while or until their research and ideas aren't clicking with me anymore.
FarmWife
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by FarmWife »

flyphotoguy wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:25 pm Have it through ARK, I saw their CEO do an interview a year or 2 ago and have been mulling buying their ETF since. Only pulled the trigger beginning of this year so I guess I bought tesla indirectly... Planning to buy and hold the ETF for a while or until their research and ideas aren't clicking with me anymore.
I bought ARK myself. I've got 3 of their ETFs and they are going to fill out the innovation portion of my portfolio. 15-20% I think, still working that out. I'm creating a portfolio of bond, value, blend, growth and innovation, the last one as a way to capture the future.
tesuzuki2002
Posts: 1165
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

TravelforFun wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:33 am
tesuzuki2002 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:20 pm
neverpanic wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:31 pm I hear chatter from a lot of people who are buying into the split. The ride to $2000 was fun, I'm cashing out on Monday. I may keep a single share just because.
A single share pre or post split? either way.. congrats... I too have started selling and have been selling a lot of others... Tech has just gone crazy and while it could continue to climb... It has doubled my portfolio and I didn't expect that to happen... I'm taking the win and cashing out.
I bought 280 shares in March at $471 a share, sold 90 shares in early August at $1, 465 a share to recoup my cost basis. I have 190 share left which is pure house money. I set my stop loss at 25% on the 190 shares and just let them ride.

TravelforFun
Good Strategy!!! I recently dumps all my Peloton Stock.... that went up way too fast for their product line... I love the company... But I also lost making money and getting out at a local top...
Great Score on TSLA!!! Take that to the bank!!! The Japanese have been over inflating the US Tech Industry MArkets with leveraged option contracts on the order of $350Bn per day... 4-5x any about they have EVERY played with in history... They will pull out and all these poor americans here will be left holding the bag!
User avatar
pokebowl
Posts: 422
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:22 pm
Location: Alaska

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by pokebowl »

This past month Tesla has definitely been strapped to a falcon 9 rocket. It is up 50% this month alone. YTD is even more astronomical. :beer
jdb
Posts: 1710
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:21 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by jdb »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:06 pm everyone around me is talking about TSLA.. even some of my co-workers are buying due to FOMO, this is how you know it's a classic bubble.

Ralph Nader made a good observation recently, TSLA's market cap now exceeds VW by a country mile which is truly stunning given that VW is the world's largest and one of the oldest automakers, in business since 1937 through all sorts of tumultuous economic periods... Tesla is nothing more than an ant compared to VW. This stock price is a joke!
Of all the public personas I may dislike Ralph Nader most [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. If he is dissing TSLA then agree with your grandson. Of course I am a little biased, bought in 2012 and 2014 and 2018 etc. Anyway, now have good 7 figures in the company stock and enjoy driving the Model S and Model X. And still dislike Ralph Nader. Good luck.
stocknoob4111
Posts: 1822
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by stocknoob4111 »

My buddy bought TSLA in the 600s before the split, around $20k I think... he is sitting on crazy profit now. He also bought airline and cruise stocks at the very bottom, made a killing on those too.
000
Posts: 4646
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 000 »

pokebowl wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:56 pm This past month Tesla has definitely been strapped to a falcon 9 rocket. It is up 50% this month alone. YTD is even more astronomical. :beer
Never been happier to be in VTSAX.
User avatar
ClevrChico
Posts: 1973
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by ClevrChico »

000 wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:29 pm
pokebowl wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:56 pm This past month Tesla has definitely been strapped to a falcon 9 rocket. It is up 50% this month alone. YTD is even more astronomical. :beer
Never been happier to be in VTSAX.
Same for me. A family member asked me about Tesla, and it was great to tell them they already own it since it's in VTSAX. "The computer automatically bought it."

With a P/E ratio at 1,160, I wouldn't dare buy it as an individual stock. (I also saw there's a recall about roofs becoming detached. :D )
checkyourmath
Posts: 357
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:46 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by checkyourmath »

The higher the PE the more potential for future earnings. I don't see Teslas PE ratio slowing down until it hits the 10,000 market. There is a lot of opportunity there.
pseudoiterative
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:11 am
Location: australia

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by pseudoiterative »

checkyourmath wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:56 pm The higher the PE the more potential for future earnings.
Releasing your potential is a very very dangerous idea.
You should stay away from your potential.
That is something that you should leave absolutely alone.
Don't d-- You'll mess it up! Leave it!
And anyway it's like your bank balance, you always have a lot less than you think.
-- Dylan Moran (single link youtube)
checkyourmath
Posts: 357
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:46 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by checkyourmath »

That video is hilarious way better than a PE ratio of 10,000.
xraygoggles
Posts: 84
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:30 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by xraygoggles »

As ridiculous as the stock has been to date, it's possible it could rise even further over the next few weeks as companies are forced to buy stock for their indices. $700?
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
BNAIBOA
Posts: 44
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:56 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by BNAIBOA »

Tesla is spending a lot of money in research and building factories. If Tesla wants a more favorable PE, they can spend less but why make a profit and pay taxes now when they can keep on growing? How are these ICE companies going to catch up to Tesla and their technology? Even if they can, Tesla can just wage a price war. They can do this because they have already spent billions in research and infrastructures. These ICE companies are not going to be able to raise the kind of money needed to take on Tesla. It is pretty much game over.

Tesla will have competition from NIO and other Chinese EV companies, not from GM, Ford, BMW, etc. U.S and China will take the mantle from Japan and Germany.
dh
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:01 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by dh »

I did not buy Tesla (TSLA) stock. Yet, I do have an international fund (Vanguard International Growth; VWIGX) that has had Tesla in it's top 10 for a long time. I was surprised to see that it had "grown" (or the managers may have added to it) to being the top holding in the fund. :shock: A crazy ride!
User avatar
1789
Posts: 1917
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:31 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 1789 »

dh wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:27 am I did not buy Tesla (TSLA) stock. Yet, I do have an international fund (Vanguard International Growth; VWIGX) that has had Tesla in it's top 10 for a long time. I was surprised to see that it had "grown" (or the managers may have added to it) to being the top holding in the fund. :shock: A crazy ride!
Interestingly Vanguard's so smart managers include a stock like tesla in their international active funds. This is a local company and not international.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
1rl9DS5gl2
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:22 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by 1rl9DS5gl2 »

Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:50 pm If you own the market, you already had Tesla! Just remember that the markets go up and down. This is probably short covering since Tesla is heavily shorted. Fast, Irrational market moves normally do not end well. I’m personally not impressed with a stock that goes up 60% in 6 days as a long term investor. Accurately predict the future and you have my attention. :-)
The interesting question, Wiggums, is what qualifies as long term? I have a 4 year old grandson. Shortly after he was born my son (his father) bought the kid 1 Bitcoin and some Ethereum. He also considered buying him some shares of Tesla. Bogleheads love to hate crypto and Tesla but I'm guessing my grandson is financially better off than most of the other kids in his nursery school.
dh
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:01 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by dh »

1789 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:23 pm
Interestingly Vanguard's so smart managers include a stock like tesla in their international active funds. This is a local company and not international.
Great point! 14.6% of the portfolio is US stocks. The only country with a greater percentage of the portfolio is China with 14.7% of the portfolio. I read the managers (who all reside outside the USA) seek growth investments in developed and emerging markets. Perhaps since all the managers live outside the USA, they view what we term "domestic stocks" as international growth stocks.
jdb
Posts: 1710
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:21 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by jdb »

Deleted
hightower
Posts: 863
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:28 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by hightower »

GingerandPiper wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:28 pm I'm grinning as I write this. I just got a text from my freshman in college grandson who advised me to put $50 in Tesla because the stock is going up!

Well, I guess there is "fun money" to be spent but.....

I think I'll pass, but still wanted to alert the Boglehead community of this opportunity. :-)

Ginger
Well...turns out your grandson was right, lol. Your $50 dollars of tesla stock (`0.33 shares) would be worth around $230 at closing today;) How much did he buy? Too bad you all didn't buy $50k
KandT
Posts: 219
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:32 am

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by KandT »

Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:16 pm
Normchad wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:45 pm
I don't own any stocks, so no exposure to TSLA. The company financial are a fraud. It was before 2018 and still is.
This is a serious allegation. Is there any credible evidence to support it?
Lol. You must be new to TSLA. Google it.
Does Google certify the information they reply with? I know I have googled things and received all sorts of misinformation.

For a company that supposedly doesn't sell any cars, I sure see a lot on the road!!
TropikThunder
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

Post by TropikThunder »

Oregano wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:16 pm
Normchad wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:45 pm
I don't own any stocks, so no exposure to TSLA. The company financial are a fraud. It was before 2018 and still is.
This is a serious allegation. Is there any credible evidence to support it?
Lol. You must be new to TSLA. Google it.
Don't be lazy. Someone making serious accusations of criminal activity has the burden of proof. Fraud has a very specific legal meaning, especially for a publicly traded company - unless you're just being lazy here and using it colloquially. And YouTube videos don't count as proof.
Post Reply