Last gasp of the bull

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hdas
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Last gasp of the bull

Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm

[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek]

Hi All,

It's not pleasant to have to take measures to protect one's wealth in the face of optimism and a roaring market. It's also not useful to make sudden dramatic moves in one portfolio. However, I believe that the current juncture offers an opportunity to adjust one's glide path if you will. I offered liquidity to the buyers of stocks right here at ES 3335, and of course will be looking to take the cane out when the going get's tough, at lower prices.

So, to bring the thread to a personal and practical matter, here's what I'm doing:

1. Cashed out my individual stocks in alpha portfolio.
2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
3. Increased substantially my holdings of Low Vol Stocks (ACWV, VMNVX) and SCV ,........,out of a lot of Large Growth.
4. Increase my long vol activity in the alpha part of my portfolio. (VIX Futures)

Documenting the decision here seems apt for review and evaluation. And also update my thinking and tweak the process. Right now I see the range 3400 - 3000, pricewise the tactical change seems right, but only the shadow knows about the timing. We have a calendar event in November, and the volatility curve indicates as much.

Image

This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy
....

deikel
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by deikel » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:57 pm

Soooooo......, you are completely into market timing......and.....?

What happens next week in the market is utterly irrelevant, the only question of interest is, do you think the market will have grown in 10-20-30 years or whenever you start taking money back out again....whatever happens in between is funny money showing a higher or lower number ...

You might guess right or guess wrong a couple of times - eventually it becomes a boring game you more often loose then not....I rather stay with my plan and it will exactly get me where I want to be
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runner3081
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by runner3081 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:59 pm

Yawn, just more noise. Keep investing along the way and ignore articles/posts/comments like the one posted :)

ponyboy
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by ponyboy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:00 pm

in before the lock

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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by abuss368 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:06 pm

There is so much research available that shows market timing simply does not work. What your post may imply is that you were not comfortable with the inherent risk in your existing portfolio and thus the change.

Bogleheads tune out the noise and stay the course. For example, if my stocks are under allocated, I will back up the truck and buy more regardless of what the market is doing.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by abuss368 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:07 pm

runner3081 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:59 pm
Yawn, just more noise. Keep investing along the way and ignore articles/posts/comments like the one posted :)
Well said. :sharebeer
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by brad.clarkston » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:10 pm

I suspect hdas is over from the Morning* forum. Very different mindset than this forum.

minimalistmarc
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:12 pm

Changing allocation from 80:20 to 65:35 isn’t really a big deal. Hope you get a chance to get back to 80:20. I’m far too lazy to bother with stuff like this :)

mike152
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by mike152 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:18 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm

2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
Looks like you're finally getting to your desired asset allocation from 2015.
hdas wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:36 pm
@livesoft

I'm going for 65/70-35/30 as a basic structure, with some diversification in the middle. Because that seems reasonable given my age and other assets.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=176675&p=2671800#p2671885

And your asset allocation between 2015 and today was more aggressive than your risk tolerance would indicate. Fortunately, it worked out in your favor!

:sharebeer
Last edited by mike152 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Topic Author
hdas
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[Deleted]

Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:20 pm

[Deleted]
Last edited by hdas on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hdas
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Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:23 pm

[Deleted]
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alfaspider
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by alfaspider » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:44 pm

Every year for the last 7+ years, there have been posters who insist that the bull market has run its course and it's time to cash out. Each year, everyone explains why market timing isn't going to work in their favor. Each time, the poster has lost money.

Perhaps this year will be the year of the crash. I can't predict it, and neither can you.

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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:44 pm

I bought some more BRK/b in order to capture another broker bonus.

Weeeeeee!
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Presintense
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Presintense » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:57 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm
[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek]

Hi All,

It's not pleasant to have to take measures to protect one's wealth in the face of optimism and a roaring market. It's also not useful to make sudden dramatic moves in one portfolio. However, I believe that the current juncture offers an opportunity to adjust one's glide path if you will. I offered liquidity to the buyers of stocks right here at ES 3335, and of course will be looking to take the cane out when the going get's tough, at lower prices.

So, to bring the thread to a personal and practical matter, here's what I'm doing:

1. Cashed out my individual stocks in alpha portfolio.
2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
3. Increased substantially my holdings of Low Vol Stocks (ACWV, VMNVX) and SCV ,........,out of a lot of Large Growth.
4. Increase my long vol activity in the alpha part of my portfolio. (VIX Futures)

Documenting the decision here seems apt for review and evaluation. And also update my thinking and tweak the process. Right now I see the range 3400 - 3000, pricewise the tactical change seems right, but only the shadow knows about the timing. We have a calendar event in November, and the volatility curve indicates as much.

Image

This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy
Highly doubt there’s a predictable need for long term investors to be any more, or less safe than any other time. As always, too much safety is as dangerous to returns as too much risk.
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Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:41 pm

It's not pleasant to have to take measures to protect one's wealth........
Having wealth, so much so that one feels the need to protect it is not only pleasant, it is downright joyous!

:oops:
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

GrowthSeeker
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by GrowthSeeker » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:12 pm

It's reassuring that NOT 100% of people are drunk on pure optimism. i.e. not hearing about the latest hot stock tip from the shoe shine boy (shoe shine person?).
So for now, (pausing to yawn), I'll go back to ignoring the noise about where the markets might be going.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you.

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[Deleted]

Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:14 pm

[Deleted]
Last edited by hdas on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
....

EnjoyIt
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:27 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:06 pm
There is so much research available that shows market timing simply does not work. What your post may imply is that you were not comfortable with the inherent risk in your existing portfolio and thus the change.

Bogleheads tune out the noise and stay the course. For example, if my stocks are under allocated, I will back up the truck and buy more regardless of what the market is doing.
This right there.

My asset allocation last year, this year, and next year already expects a down turn. That is why I have my asset allocation where it is. I am prepared for a downturn to happen tomorrow, every day I wake up. If it doesn't happen, good for me. If it does, I will sleep well enough at night knowing my asset allocation is appropriate for my risk tolerance.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters. | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418

Topic Author
hdas
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[Deleted]

Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:31 pm

[Deleted]
Last edited by hdas on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
....

Halicar
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Halicar » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:33 pm

This reminds me of when, in late 2018, a regular member of this forum was certain that a market crash was just around the corner. He sold all of his equities and placed a large short bet on TSLA. For a short time he boasted repeatedly about how right he was and how rich he was going to get when Tesla stock went to zero. He hasn't posted much recently.

grettman
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by grettman » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:37 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm
[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek]

Hi All,

It's not pleasant to have to take measures to protect one's wealth in the face of optimism and a roaring market. It's also not useful to make sudden dramatic moves in one portfolio. However, I believe that the current juncture offers an opportunity to adjust one's glide path if you will. I offered liquidity to the buyers of stocks right here at ES 3335, and of course will be looking to take the cane out when the going get's tough, at lower prices.

So, to bring the thread to a personal and practical matter, here's what I'm doing:

1. Cashed out my individual stocks in alpha portfolio.
2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
3. Increased substantially my holdings of Low Vol Stocks (ACWV, VMNVX) and SCV ,........,out of a lot of Large Growth.
4. Increase my long vol activity in the alpha part of my portfolio. (VIX Futures)

Documenting the decision here seems apt for review and evaluation. And also update my thinking and tweak the process. Right now I see the range 3400 - 3000, pricewise the tactical change seems right, but only the shadow knows about the timing. We have a calendar event in November, and the volatility curve indicates as much.

Image

This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy

What is actionable about this post? What’s the value for that matter?

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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Mactheriverrat » Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:30 pm

What last gasp of the bull.
Where-?
Image
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greg24
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by greg24 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:46 pm

Halicar wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:33 pm
This reminds me of when, in late 2018, a regular member of this forum was certain that a market crash was just around the corner. He sold all of his equities and placed a large short bet on TSLA. For a short time he boasted repeatedly about how right he was and how rich he was going to get when Tesla stock went to zero. He hasn't posted much recently.
Thanks for the reminder! They always disappear when their grand plans implode.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:54 pm

Shaking my head.....

EnjoyIt
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:02 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:31 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:27 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:06 pm
There is so much research available that shows market timing simply does not work. What your post may imply is that you were not comfortable with the inherent risk in your existing portfolio and thus the change.

Bogleheads tune out the noise and stay the course. For example, if my stocks are under allocated, I will back up the truck and buy more regardless of what the market is doing.
This right there.

My asset allocation last year, this year, and next year already expects a down turn. That is why I have my asset allocation where it is. I am prepared for a downturn to happen tomorrow, every day I wake up. If it doesn't happen, good for me. If it does, I will sleep well enough at night knowing my asset allocation is appropriate for my risk tolerance.
Good for you. What I’m finding out is that I don’t want a fix asset allocation. I get very bullish when the market is down and uncomfortable when the market goes up more than is fair[1].

Cheers :greedy

[1] I recognized this is highly subjective. Not worth arguing over.
I don't want to argue with you on what "fair" is. Being on Bogleheads for the last 6 years, I have read many threads just like your and so far not one of them was right. Who knows, maybe you will get lucky. Personally I would not mind a little recession right now because I want it to end, my stocks to recoup (I hope) and then I may very well retire. I would prefer to retire right after a recession and not during this very long bull market.

Good luck.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters. | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:05 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:02 pm
Personally I would not mind a little recession right now because I want it to end, my stocks to recoup (I hope) and then I may very well retire. I would prefer to retire right after a recession and not during this very long bull market.
On the contrary, I do not want it to end. I need to keep growing my portfolio.

core4portfolio
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by core4portfolio » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:10 pm

i felt bull ends on 2018 but it extends to 2020 and continuing
I stayed in my asset allocation 80:20 and got most of it. Still the same for next 2 years then reallocate to 70:30 for next decade
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nydoc
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by nydoc » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:17 pm

Please remember to post here a year later when others ask how did it go? I am so frustrated to see OPs disappear after doing these things.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:19 pm

"Last gasp of the bull" would be a great movie title.
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Nowizard
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Nowizard » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:21 pm

That last gasp could just be a snort before a charge, although we have made a change ourselves recently from 60/40 to 55/45 because of the run-up.

Tim

EnjoyIt
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:23 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:19 pm
"Last gasp of the bull" would be a great movie title.
Yes, it could be about a retired Spanish secret agent who's family gets killed by nefarious drug lords from Africa who are secretly funded by the Russians. "The Bull" can be played by Antonio Banderas.
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:05 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:02 pm
Personally I would not mind a little recession right now because I want it to end, my stocks to recoup (I hope) and then I may very well retire. I would prefer to retire right after a recession and not during this very long bull market.
On the contrary, I do not want it to end. I need to keep growing my portfolio.
I don't want it to stop, but I would not mind either. I would rather it go up another 25% over the next 2 years. That would be even nicer.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters. | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418

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dogagility
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by dogagility » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:28 pm

Strategy seems complex and uses data that opaquely predicts the future (at best). No thanks. But good luck to you!
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Elysium
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Elysium » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:28 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm
This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy
OP, this is going to be very painful for you, 2020 is going to be an up market, not as great as 2019, but up nonetheless. You will be watching from the sidelines and counting what if you had kept the 80/20 allocation instead of moving 15% out. That could be a lot of money, but I won't know for sure, may be you are moving $1000 :wink:

In the event we get a down year, you get some bragging rights, short lived though, and you'll likely miss the bounce back. You may get back in thinking recovery is on the way, but we may get a "W" shaped recovery, and you will catch the interim top only to drop further, perhaps the second leg of the bear after dead cat bounce may be more severe. These are all possibilities when you time the market. If you felt your AA was wrong and now decided to correct it for taking on less risk then good luck to you, stay the course with your new AA :beer

Topic Author
hdas
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Post by hdas » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:47 pm

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Last edited by hdas on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by abuss368 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:49 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:19 pm
"Last gasp of the bull" would be a great movie title.
Perhaps as a Wall Street 3 movie with Gordon Gekko.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Elysium
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Elysium » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:14 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:47 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:28 pm
hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm
This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy
OP, this is going to be very painful for you, 2020 is going to be an up market, not as great as 2019, but up nonetheless. You will be watching from the sidelines and counting what if you had kept the 80/20 allocation instead of moving 15% out. That could be a lot of money, but I won't know for sure, may be you are moving $1000 :wink:

In the event we get a down year, you get some bragging rights, short lived though, and you'll likely miss the bounce back. You may get back in thinking recovery is on the way, but we may get a "W" shaped recovery, and you will catch the interim top only to drop further, perhaps the second leg of the bear after dead cat bounce may be more severe. These are all possibilities when you time the market. If you felt your AA was wrong and now decided to correct it for taking on less risk then good luck to you, stay the course with your new AA :beer
This could be another 1995. And if it is, it would have been an atrocious move on my part....this is my risk. The getting back in is a non issue for me, I'll be back on the way down regardless. If anything, this "lighting up" move felt more awkward and difficult than the 20% drawdown in December when I was buying with gusto. Let us see. Hope we are both right. Cheers :greedy
This is a Presidential year, without a very strong catalyst for down market as in 2008, we will likely not see large drawdown. Iran issue looked like it, but got resolved, may be not? Who knows. I will not lie when I say I have been tempted to reduce my equity allocation. After all a ton of money has been made in last 10 years and most of that is still sitting in equities except a small percentage as part of regular glidepath. But, what I am doing is following my formula for glidepath towards retirement. That takes away emotions.

For instance, I have set by retirement date allocation as 50/50 Stocks/Bonds and based on current equity/bond allocation calculate Target Bond allocation. Current Total/Target Total * Target Bond Allocation. As equities go up, it tells me how much to move into bonds, if they go down it tells me how much to equities to buy. Takes away guessing. But I let it run both ways a bit before re-balancing, for instance I am a bit more in equities than the formula is telling me, not a lot, but couple of percentage points more, got a bit greedy :greedy

You depend on technical charts quite a bit? do they work, has it worked for you?

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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Mactheriverrat » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:18 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:14 pm

You depend on technical charts quite a bit? do they work, has it worked for you?
IMHO
Technical Charts do work but it depends on just what one is using/
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Olemiss540
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Olemiss540 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:23 pm

This is why the vast majority of investors would be MUCH better off in a target date retirement fund.

Behavioral finance mistakes (such as performance chasing, market timing, and sector weighting) which seriously impact risk adjusted portfolio returns.

Who was it that said "more money has been lost waiting for a market crash than in the market crash itself"?

OP, you have justified this to yourself, but around here you are performing multiple "sins" that are the vein of many unsuccessful investors. Here's to hoping your education is not as costly as some and hope you are not right this time as it can cost you MUCH more next time when you double down on your "bets".
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.

manatee2005
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by manatee2005 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:28 pm

Whatever happened to the recession everyone was talking about last year? Bueller? Bueller?

jrbdmb
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by jrbdmb » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:45 pm

Halicar wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:33 pm
This reminds me of when, in late 2018, a regular member of this forum was certain that a market crash was just around the corner. He sold all of his equities and placed a large short bet on TSLA. For a short time he boasted repeatedly about how right he was and how rich he was going to get when Tesla stock went to zero. He hasn't posted much recently.
Just looked at TSLA, last time I bothered checking it was in the low 200s. As of close today it is at 569.56! I hope that poster covered his short position before now and cut his losses. :shock:

(I also know at that time I thought TSLA was overpriced at 220 or whatever it was. That's why I don't pick individual stocks or try to time the market.)

peppers
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by peppers » Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:17 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:23 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:19 pm
"Last gasp of the bull" would be a great movie title.
Yes, it could be about a retired Spanish secret agent who's family gets killed by nefarious drug lords from Africa who are secretly funded by the Russians. "The Bull" can be played by Antonio Banderas.


Excellent idea, I like it.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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Mountain Doc
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Mountain Doc » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:21 pm

jrbdmb wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:45 pm
Halicar wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:33 pm
This reminds me of when, in late 2018, a regular member of this forum was certain that a market crash was just around the corner. He sold all of his equities and placed a large short bet on TSLA. For a short time he boasted repeatedly about how right he was and how rich he was going to get when Tesla stock went to zero. He hasn't posted much recently.
Just looked at TSLA, last time I bothered checking it was in the low 200s. As of close today it is at 569.56! I hope that poster covered his short position before now and cut his losses. :shock:

(I also know at that time I thought TSLA was overpriced at 220 or whatever it was. That's why I don't pick individual stocks or try to time the market.)
He hasn't posted since September. Since then TSLA has more than doubled, and the broader US market is up >10%. Failed market timers tend to disappear from the forum.

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Third Son
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Third Son » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:34 pm

The bull will end on March 1st. That is because I am retiring on February 29th :oops:
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Compound
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Compound » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:51 pm

hdas — it wasn’t clear to me from your OP, what influenced your decision to make this change. Are there particular market signals that you follow over time?

While I commend you for publicly posting your decision to make this change before the fact, it would also be helpful to know the rationale. If you haven’t already codified the rationale, that could morph after the fact.

JBTX
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by JBTX » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:01 pm

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm
[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek]

Hi All,

It's not pleasant to have to take measures to protect one's wealth in the face of optimism and a roaring market. It's also not useful to make sudden dramatic moves in one portfolio. However, I believe that the current juncture offers an opportunity to adjust one's glide path if you will. I offered liquidity to the buyers of stocks right here at ES 3335, and of course will be looking to take the cane out when the going get's tough, at lower prices.

So, to bring the thread to a personal and practical matter, here's what I'm doing:

1. Cashed out my individual stocks in alpha portfolio.
2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
3. Increased substantially my holdings of Low Vol Stocks (ACWV, VMNVX) and SCV ,........,out of a lot of Large Growth.
4. Increase my long vol activity in the alpha part of my portfolio. (VIX Futures)

Documenting the decision here seems apt for review and evaluation. And also update my thinking and tweak the process. Right now I see the range 3400 - 3000, pricewise the tactical change seems right, but only the shadow knows about the timing. We have a calendar event in November, and the volatility curve indicates as much.

Image

This will be painful for everybody. Be safe out there.

Cheers :greedy
Id say these are generally prudent measures. Unless you are very young 80% is a bit out there at this point.

minimalistmarc
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:08 am

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:31 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:27 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:06 pm
There is so much research available that shows market timing simply does not work. What your post may imply is that you were not comfortable with the inherent risk in your existing portfolio and thus the change.

Bogleheads tune out the noise and stay the course. For example, if my stocks are under allocated, I will back up the truck and buy more regardless of what the market is doing.
This right there.

My asset allocation last year, this year, and next year already expects a down turn. That is why I have my asset allocation where it is. I am prepared for a downturn to happen tomorrow, every day I wake up. If it doesn't happen, good for me. If it does, I will sleep well enough at night knowing my asset allocation is appropriate for my risk tolerance.
Good for you. What I’m finding out is that I don’t want a fix asset allocation. I get very bullish when the market is down and uncomfortable when the market goes up more than is fair[1].

Cheers :greedy

[1] I recognized this is highly subjective. Not worth arguing over.
I suffer this as well.

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birdog
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by birdog » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:54 am

Olemiss540 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:23 pm
This is why the vast majority of investors would be MUCH better off in a target date retirement fund.

Behavioral finance mistakes (such as performance chasing, market timing, and sector weighting) which seriously impact risk adjusted portfolio returns.

Who was it that said "more money has been lost waiting for a market crash than in the market crash itself"?

OP, you have justified this to yourself, but around here you are performing multiple "sins" that are the vein of many unsuccessful investors. Here's to hoping your education is not as costly as some and hope you are not right this time as it can cost you MUCH more next time when you double down on your "bets".
Well said.

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watchnerd
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Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by watchnerd » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:05 am

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:47 pm

2. Changed my allocation from 80/20 to 65/35.
You could have gone with 70/30 using long or extended duration Treasuries.

It's more a more efficient port than 65/35 using int/TBM.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

Wanderingwheelz
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Wanderingwheelz » Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:14 am

hdas wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:31 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:27 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:06 pm
There is so much research available that shows market timing simply does not work. What your post may imply is that you were not comfortable with the inherent risk in your existing portfolio and thus the change.

Bogleheads tune out the noise and stay the course. For example, if my stocks are under allocated, I will back up the truck and buy more regardless of what the market is doing.
This right there.

My asset allocation last year, this year, and next year already expects a down turn. That is why I have my asset allocation where it is. I am prepared for a downturn to happen tomorrow, every day I wake up. If it doesn't happen, good for me. If it does, I will sleep well enough at night knowing my asset allocation is appropriate for my risk tolerance.
Good for you. What I’m finding out is that I don’t want a fix asset allocation. I get very bullish when the market is down and uncomfortable when the market goes up more than is fair[1].

Cheers :greedy

[1] I recognized this is highly subjective. Not worth arguing over.
Finally we’ve found an investor who feels greedy on the way up and fearful on the way down. If only The Wall Street Journal could find him so we could all read more about him. Fascinating.

Slick8503
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Re: Last gasp of the bull

Post by Slick8503 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:25 am

Hdas, do you really need to become more aggressive after the downturn? I’ve found myself moving my portfolio to a more conservative allocation quicker than I had initially planned. Not because I think I can time the market but because I no longer need to take the risk. With market returns as high as they’ve been I have to imagine many investors are in a similar place if they were honest with themselves. Trying to raise the equity percentage after a downturn sounds more like greed than anything.

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