VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

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Blueskies60
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VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
livesoft
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by livesoft »

I don't see why you don't buy some now and some later.

Full disclosure: I bought some VTI earlier today and thought I was going to lose money.
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Blueskies60
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

I was thinking about doing that. What do you suggest? 10K, 25K, 50K?
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RickBoglehead
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by RickBoglehead »

Buy now.

Wait.

Do both.

There, I have covered every option for you. :wink:

Don't know why you waited until 2020. Seems you were asking around 12/3. VTI was $157.63. On 12/31, VTI was $164.87. You've already missed out on a 4.6% gain...
Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:56 pm I was thinking about doing that. What do you suggest? 10K, 25K, 50K?
This is dollar cost averaging, and it's proven to lose out to lump sum investing.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Ged »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Why did you want to wait? How did that work out for you? Now you are thinking about waiting some more?
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Blueskies60
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

I bought some in 2019 and then read a thread about tax implications. Thought it might be better tax wise to purchase in 2020.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by ruralavalon »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Buy now.

Why wait?

Are you sure that the share price will be lower later?

If you wait for a good time to buy you will never know if the next day, next week, next month, or even next year might be even better.

Holding onto cash waiting for a good time to buy almost guarantees a negative real return net of inflation and taxes.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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keanoz
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by keanoz »

I wouldn't worry about a dip, especially if you are invested for the long run. I had the same amount 2 weeks ago and bought asap
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Ged »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:02 pm I bought some in 2019 and then read a thread about tax implications. Thought it might be better tax wise to purchase in 2020.
I think you are letting the tail wag the dog.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by goblue100 »

RickBoglehead wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:58 pm
Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:56 pm I was thinking about doing that. What do you suggest? 10K, 25K, 50K?
This is dollar cost averaging, and it's proven to lose out to lump sum investing.
Except when it doesn't, which is something like 25% of the time. And since we are at an all time, maybe this is one of those times? Or it could be that this is the low for 2020 and by waiting you are losing out all year.

There, did that clear it up for you? :shock:

(Just invest it. If you want to do 20k a month for 5 months, do it. If you want to put it all in, do that. Hopefully in 5 years the difference in whatever you choose will be very small.)
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Blueskies60
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

Thanks for your thoughts and suggestions. I guess just buy the dang fund. Hope for the best and prepare (mentally) for the worst. This investing is risky business. Just like life!
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anon_investor
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by anon_investor »

This sounds like it is for a taxable account. If so just buy now. If it goes down a lot, then you can tax loss harvest. No big deal.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by MotoTrojan »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:02 pm I bought some in 2019 and then read a thread about tax implications. Thought it might be better tax wise to purchase in 2020.
Selling has tax implications but the only tax impact of buying is you’ll get dividends. Not sure what you read about.

I am a firm believer in lump sum. I invest as soon as practically possible whenever new cash arrives. No regrets, even when buying on an up day like today. In fact, it went up another 1/4 percent since :).
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Do not invest in equities unless you plan to hold for at least 10 years. Do you believe VTI will be lower in 10 years, 20 years from now?
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Cautionary Tale
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Cautionary Tale »

I wanna cut the OP some slack. I had the same hesitation. Decided to put in 1/3rd today.

My biggest investment ever, by far, was in January 2008.
Second biggest was in energy in January 2015. So I am always a little nervous to hit submit for a big amount.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by H-Town »

livesoft wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:55 pm I don't see why you don't buy some now and some later.

Full disclosure: I bought some VTI earlier today and thought I was going to lose money.
I echo this. Buy now and buy some more later, unless you stop making money altogether...
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by anon_investor »

Cautionary Tale wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:32 pm I wanna cut the OP some slack. I had the same hesitation. Decided to put in 1/3rd today.

My biggest investment ever, by far, was in January 2008.
Second biggest was in energy in January 2015. So I am always a little nervous to hit submit for a big amount.
Was it in a taxable account? If so, did you get to TLH a bit? Personally I have tried the lump sum and DCA approach in the past. I find that just lump summing it in the end works out better for my mental sanity, instead of worry about it. It may just be a mental trick, but I tell my self, worse case I will TLH. Although, I only invest money in equities that I will not need for a long time, so I can sleep at night even if it drops 50%.
ohai
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by ohai »

People have asked the same question this whole year. The fact that SPX hit all time high again today means every single one of these people who waited have lost money.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by expat »

I am buying bonds as stocks ride higher.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Just get in the market. People have been waiting for the crash for five years now and there is a good chance that the market will never drop to the levels that they thought were high back then.

However, I made a lump sum contribution today, so that means the market will decline for a week or two. I suggest waiting until then.
livesoft
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by livesoft »

Well at least it is not January 2, 2019 and asking the same question.

I still remember the post asking about waiting for a dip and on that exact day, the market had dipped 10% below where it was a few weeks before.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by cableguy »

If buying stocks gets you to your desired AA....buy the stocks. Don't try to time it. 2020 will be a wild ride for the markets. The election will have things swinging all over the place. I say stocks go up at least 10% for 2020. But what do I know? There's nowhere else to put your money these days as far as returns. Stocks are the best game in town, whether we think they are over valued or not. That's the beauty of committing to an AA and sticking with it. I personally like 35% stocks 65% fixed, with half my fixed in CD ladder and the other half in bond funds. I bought a lot of stocks (VOO and VT) in 4Q 2019 and I thought it would go nowhere.....but it fit into my overall AA. Guess what? Its gone up!
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by MishkaWorries »

Do whatever helps you sleep at night.

I was in the same boat a few months ago. I decided to dribble it in the market while I waited for a drop. It seemed logical to me.

After a couple of months I just dropped it all in. The waiting and watching the market wore me out.

Now I seldom have to worry about the market so I sleep better at night.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Explorer »

Ferdinand2014 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:24 pm
Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Do not invest in equities unless you plan to hold for at least 10 years.....
Sage advice indeed!
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by watchnerd »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Split the difference.

Buy today.

Then short sell it.

:twisted:
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by whodidntante »

I would buy 100k now and buy more later.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

Wow, all good suggestions and insight. Will buy some tomorrow, come what may. It is in a taxable account. Good thinking, if the market tanks I can do some TLH. And agreed about "just doing it", (investing) instead of worrying about it. It'll be interesting to see where the market is in 10 years......
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Prudence »

Blueskies, suggest you check the futures market tomorrow morning before you submit your buy orders. :)
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by abuss368 »

Market timing is proven to not work. Buy now and keep buying as much as you can until retirement! One day you will be thankful.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by nix4me »

automatically invest on the same day every month and forget about it....
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by watchnerd »

nix4me wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:13 pm automatically invest on the same day every month and forget about it....
Why DCA it?
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by geerhardusvos »

buybuybuybuybuy
VTSAX and chill
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by teelainen »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Statistically speaking, lump sum investing is more profitable.

Statistically speaking, not buying any insurance products is more profitable (as long as nothing bad happens).
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by MotoTrojan »

Prudence wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:18 pm Blueskies, suggest you check the futures market tomorrow morning before you submit your buy orders. :)
Why? If the markets down, even better. Just invest.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

Thanks Bogleheads. This morning I took the plunge! Invested it all! Today there was a slight "dip" in the market, so I took it as an omen and just went for it. I feel relieved. I have all $ invested how I intended, and now can relax. What ever happens in the economy, happens. I'm in it for the long haul. Hope to continue living frugally, provided no major health catastrophes arise. This forum and all your valuable insight is awesome! I'm very thankful for all advice and support provided :)

Cheers :sharebeer
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Wiggums »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
Buy now...
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Cautionary Tale »

Good decision. Glad you waited til today and got a discount.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by bugleheadd »

Are vti dividends qualified?
livesoft
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by livesoft »

bugleheadd wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:02 am Are vti dividends qualified?
In past between 92% and 100% of the VTI dividends have been reported to be qualified ordinary dividends.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by ruralavalon »

Blueskies60 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:38 am Thanks Bogleheads. This morning I took the plunge! Invested it all! Today there was a slight "dip" in the market, so I took it as an omen and just went for it. I feel relieved. I have all $ invested how I intended, and now can relax. What ever happens in the economy, happens. I'm in it for the long haul. Hope to continue living frugally, provided no major health catastrophes arise. This forum and all your valuable insight is awesome! I'm very thankful for all advice and support provided :)

Cheers :sharebeer
Congratulations, now you can relax.
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elnegativo
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by elnegativo »

The next time you are tempted to wait on a dip ask yourself: Do I know exactly when the next dip will be, how big of a dip it will be, and how much the market will go up before the dip hits?

If you know the answer to all three questions, you can make an informed decision about whether to wait. If you don’t know the answer to all three questions, put it all in immediately.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Glad you invested the money, but I don't like your reasoning that today's dip was some kind of omen.
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by JoeRetire »

Blueskies60 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:51 pm I have a plan to purchase 100K in VTI and VXUS. I wanted to wait until 2020 to make the purchase. My dilemma: Do I buy now with the market at an all time high or wait for a dip? Even a slight dip? Thanks for your thoughts.
It's 2020. You wanted to wait until 2020 for some reason, so obviously you buy now.
Or wait. Because you have changed your mind and want to wait for something else.

Perhaps flip a coin and go with that.

Is the 100k sitting unhappily in a minimal interest savings account now? Or under your mattress? Or something else?
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Blueskies60
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

Upper NWGuy, wasn't really serious about it being an omen, lol!
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Re: VTI. Buy Now or Wait for a Dip?

Post by Blueskies60 »

JoeRetire, it's now invested.
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