Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

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Ependytis
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Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Ependytis » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am

I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
Last edited by Ependytis on Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

neilpilot
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by neilpilot » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:02 am

Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
I expect any LTC savings due to AI advancement will be more than offset by medical advancements that will extend the time you will spend needing LTC :D

livesoft
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by livesoft » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:05 am

I have not considered it. Instead, I thought of a relative simple way to try to reduce the need for long-term care at all.

I had Thanksgiving dinner with friends I have known for 40 years. Two of their parents were using wheel chairs and in their 90s. It was quite a big deal to get them from their cars to the dinner table and back. Here is the simple way: Starting when you are age 20 or younger, put a bathroom scale and a full-length mirror next to your bathtub or shower. Weigh yourself every single day of your life. That's it. I think that is a simple thing to do.
Last edited by livesoft on Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JoMoney
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by JoMoney » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 am

"Artificial Intelligence" is going to help dress me, feed me, and use the bathroom if I'm unable to do so?
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stlutz
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by stlutz » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:09 am

Seems like long term care would be one of the last things impacted by AI. It needs prople and I don't see that going away anytime in the next century, really. AI may change how the people do what they do but that doesn't get rid of the people.

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AAA
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by AAA » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:16 am

I think the accomplishments and promises of AI are exaggerated to begin with and I don't understand how it could be used in long-term care.

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Wiggums
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by Wiggums » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:21 am

I don’t know how AI might affect future healthcare costs. I do know that as you age, the cost of healthcare rises, since you are more likely to need it. I personally know three people who had LTC, but it did not pay off because the benefits paid were less than the premiums paid. These LTC policies had an exclusion period where no benefits were paid.

I’m not against term life insurance or LTC. I’m just pointing out that you have to weight the cost versus the potential need. Like retirement, there is a big unknown here — your future health and need for LTC. If you have a sizable portfolio, you might self insure, exercise and watch your weight.

regularguy455
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by regularguy455 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 am

AAA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:16 am
I think the accomplishments and promises of AI are exaggerated to begin with and I don't understand how it could be used in long-term care.

+1

IMO, AI is largely oversold. It’s just a technology that facilitates automated decision making.

illumination
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by illumination » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:24 am

If they can come up with cures for Alzheimers and dementia (and they probably will have effective treatments soon) that would probably have a far greater effect on how many people go into long term care than something like robots and AI that is in the distant future.

I've seen small, interesting upgrades like a mobile pill dispenser for a hospital that knows what medications to go give to which patients, but the real hard stuff seems a ways away. I would think fast food restaurants would be 100% automated before you could start talking about it really effecting long term care. Way easier to have a machine fry hamburgers.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by KingRiggs » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:29 am

Long-term care will always involve, by definition, CARE.

That can only be supplied by other humans using manual labor. While advances in AI May push back the age at which you need long-term care, they will not obviate that need and may, as mentioned by another poster, prolong that need.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Shallowpockets » Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:06 pm

Funny how long term care, the care part, is so expensive and yet many of the employed caregivers are only receiving minimum wage or maybe a bit more.
So we have clients concerned or unable to afford this LTC and caregivers receiving very little. Somewhere between the two lies the real money.
Perhaps that is where we need the AI.

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JoeRetire
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by JoeRetire » Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:15 pm

Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future.
Okay. Of course you have no idea what the cost of self-insuring will be in the future, either.
After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence.
Hmm. What connection between artificial intelligence and lowered LTC costs do you see? Do you expect artificially-intelligent robots to be caring for folks then and thus reducing the cost of labor?
Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
I haven't.

I don't see artificial intelligence as a major factor in reducing these costs. If any reductions actually occur, I suspect they will be a result of government intervention in some form or other.
Don't be a lemming.

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ram
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by ram » Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:19 pm

Long term care requires a lot of (relatively) low intelligence manpower.
Intelligence artificial or otherwise plays a relatively minor role.
Ram

TN_Boy
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:00 pm

Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
I don't see how, at least not directly. The LTC costs are largely people costs, and as others have remarked, you can't use a computer to help someone get up and go to the bathroom. Spend a little time visiting a care facility, you'll likely think more people are needed, not less.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:07 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:05 am
I have not considered it. Instead, I thought of a relative simple way to try to reduce the need for long-term care at all.

I had Thanksgiving dinner with friends I have known for 40 years. Two of their parents were using wheel chairs and in their 90s. It was quite a big deal to get them from their cars to the dinner table and back. Here is the simple way: Starting when you are age 20 or younger, put a bathroom scale and a full-length mirror next to your bathtub or shower. Weigh yourself every single day of your life. That's it. I think that is a simple thing to do.
Yes, maintaining a healthy weight and lifestyle is a great idea, and reduces your risk of everything from dementia to heart disease.

But fit healthy people who never smoked and are intellectually vigorous get dementia, they get strokes, they get various diseases that can steal their independence. Anecdotally, which is of course useless, but we all like to tell stories from personal experience, of the four parents/inlaws I'm familiar with, the healthiest one in their 80s ate the worst, was overweight, and didn't exercise all that much. Didn't spend a day a in care facility. The reverse was true of the ones with the healthiest lifestyles.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:34 pm

Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
No I have not. How is artificial intelligence going to wipe my butt, feed me, get me out of bed into a chair and do skin care for my decubitus wounds?
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:50 pm

illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:24 am
If they can come up with cures for Alzheimers and dementia (and they probably will have effective treatments soon) that would probably have a far greater effect on how many people go into long term care than something like robots and AI that is in the distant future.

I've seen small, interesting upgrades like a mobile pill dispenser for a hospital that knows what medications to go give to which patients, but the real hard stuff seems a ways away. I would think fast food restaurants would be 100% automated before you could start talking about it really effecting long term care. Way easier to have a machine fry hamburgers.
Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you think they will have an effective Alzheimer's treatment soon? Thus far, I'd argue the drug trials in this area have been unmitigated failures. We've not touched this disease so far; it seems likely we lack even a basic understanding of the cause.

The automated pill dispensers are interesting, but for many people in a care facility, somebody needs to hand them the medicine and remind them to take it properly. It's amazing the level of help someone with even "mild" dementia needs at times.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by illumination » Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm

TN_Boy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:50 pm
illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:24 am
If they can come up with cures for Alzheimers and dementia (and they probably will have effective treatments soon) that would probably have a far greater effect on how many people go into long term care than something like robots and AI that is in the distant future.

I've seen small, interesting upgrades like a mobile pill dispenser for a hospital that knows what medications to go give to which patients, but the real hard stuff seems a ways away. I would think fast food restaurants would be 100% automated before you could start talking about it really effecting long term care. Way easier to have a machine fry hamburgers.
Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you think they will have an effective Alzheimer's treatment soon? Thus far, I'd argue the drug trials in this area have been unmitigated failures. We've not touched this disease so far; it seems likely we lack even a basic understanding of the cause.
Some friends I have that do some work in that space, they feel like they understand the disease better and feel some major breakthroughs will arrive. I don't mean like in the immediate future, but the idea of effective treatments that either prevent or dramatically help some forms of it it in like 10+ years seems reasonable to me. I don't think though it's going to be "cured" like polio, but look at something like HIV/AIDS. It's not "cured" but we thought people like Magic Johnson would not comfortably live into their old age.

Meanwhile, just making a robot "walk" like a human is an enormous feat, I find it more far-fetched that some sort of solution like that arrives that could do the delicate tasks of being a caregiver than curtailing what puts a lot of people in places like that.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by tadamsmar » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:00 pm

Here is an AI application that has to reduced LTC costs in a pilot program.
For the past two years, an innovative assisted living facility (ALF) in Lincoln County, Maine, has attempted to improve the care of its residents by equipping its caregivers with technology that tracks care provided, offers reminders to caregivers, and provides analysis on patients’ health statuses.

The technology contributes to improved care and fewer residents transitioning to higher-cost long-term care facilities: The net savings from aging in an ALF versus a nursing home is approximately $50,000 per year.
https://www.hfma.org/topics/article/56248.html

They are just using reminders, tracking, and analysis. Stuff many of us already use every day due to the AI (if you want to call it that) that is already available. It seems that just applying technology that is already available can save money.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by JonnyDVM » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:26 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 am
"Artificial Intelligence" is going to help dress me, feed me, and use the bathroom if I'm unable to do so?
No robot wants that job
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

TN_Boy
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:38 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:00 pm
Here is an AI application that has to reduced LTC costs in a pilot program.
For the past two years, an innovative assisted living facility (ALF) in Lincoln County, Maine, has attempted to improve the care of its residents by equipping its caregivers with technology that tracks care provided, offers reminders to caregivers, and provides analysis on patients’ health statuses.

The technology contributes to improved care and fewer residents transitioning to higher-cost long-term care facilities: The net savings from aging in an ALF versus a nursing home is approximately $50,000 per year.
https://www.hfma.org/topics/article/56248.html

They are just using reminders, tracking, and analysis. Stuff many of us already use every day due to the AI (if you want to call it that) that is already available. It seems that just applying technology that is already available can save money.
That's interesting, thanks for the link.

Though the study was quite small. I wasn't clear from the article how much "AI" was in it. I guess the "analysis" part of the software. It mostly looked like better care tracking.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:39 pm

illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm
TN_Boy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:50 pm
illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:24 am
If they can come up with cures for Alzheimers and dementia (and they probably will have effective treatments soon) that would probably have a far greater effect on how many people go into long term care than something like robots and AI that is in the distant future.

I've seen small, interesting upgrades like a mobile pill dispenser for a hospital that knows what medications to go give to which patients, but the real hard stuff seems a ways away. I would think fast food restaurants would be 100% automated before you could start talking about it really effecting long term care. Way easier to have a machine fry hamburgers.
Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you think they will have an effective Alzheimer's treatment soon? Thus far, I'd argue the drug trials in this area have been unmitigated failures. We've not touched this disease so far; it seems likely we lack even a basic understanding of the cause.
Some friends I have that do some work in that space, they feel like they understand the disease better and feel some major breakthroughs will arrive. I don't mean like in the immediate future, but the idea of effective treatments that either prevent or dramatically help some forms of it it in like 10+ years seems reasonable to me. I don't think though it's going to be "cured" like polio, but look at something like HIV/AIDS. It's not "cured" but we thought people like Magic Johnson would not comfortably live into their old age.

Meanwhile, just making a robot "walk" like a human is an enormous feat, I find it more far-fetched that some sort of solution like that arrives that could do the delicate tasks of being a caregiver than curtailing what puts a lot of people in places like that.
I hope your friends are right! So far, as best I can tell to this point, people keep thinking they understand the disease and trying drugs that don't work. But in science, sometimes "this time is different" is true.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by randomguy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:09 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:34 pm
Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
No I have not. How is artificial intelligence going to wipe my butt, feed me, get me out of bed into a chair and do skin care for my decubitus wounds?
https://www.geek.com/tech/this-butt-wip ... o-1682650/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDprrrEdomM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3lxBDc-IUw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fnv_3qn3Yc

And so on. And no a lot of those aren't exactly commercial ready. But a lot can happen over 10-20 years of research and development:) We have ways to have computers interact with the physical world. As the ability to observe and adapt (i.e. how much force do you need to apply to lift a person without cracking their bones), the number of tasks they can do will expand. The question is how cheap (i.e. not going to have 100k robotic arm wiping your ass) and flexible these things are. The fully automated LTC isn't something I expect. But finding ways to care for say 5x as many patients with the same number of staff might be possible over the next 20-30 years.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by randomguy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:26 pm

ram wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:19 pm
Long term care requires a lot of (relatively) low intelligence manpower.
Intelligence artificial or otherwise plays a relatively minor role.
Low intelligence is exactly the stuff that the current AI is working to solve. Think about how low of IQ you need to be able to drive and how disruptive it will be if cars are able to do it.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by averagedude » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:36 pm

I believe that AI or other technology may not reduce the cost of LTC, but it may reduce the chances that you will need it. Technology that periodically checks your sugar, blood pressure, weight, heart rhythm, oxygen levels, and blood checks of how your organs are functioning may detect health issues at earlier stages and promote healthier lifestyles. Of course their could be unintended consequences due to people needing LTC because of significant longer life spans. Me personally, I am looking forward to advancements in this area as it will improve our lives in so many ways.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by HomerJ » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:51 pm

Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence.
Why do you think that?

Serious question. How does AI help reduce LTC costs?
The J stands for Jay

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by HomerJ » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm

randomguy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:26 pm
Low intelligence is exactly the stuff that the current AI is working to solve. Think about how low of IQ you need to be able to drive and how disruptive it will be if cars are able to do it.
What's interesting is how IQ has nothing to do with many of the things human brains are good at.

As you say, low IQ people can drive in nearly all conditions, but computers can't replicate that yet.
Meanwhile, just making a robot "walk" like a human is an enormous feat
This.
Last edited by HomerJ on Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ferdinand2014
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:01 pm

randomguy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:09 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:34 pm
Ependytis wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:58 am
I got a call from a guy talking about risk management. The guy was interested in selling me long-term care insurance. The LTC insurance was declined of course because I will be self-insured and I don’t want to invest in something when I don’t know what the cost will be in the future. After I hung up, I thought about it and wondered if there would be the same costs for LTC when I need it in 20 to 30 years. It seems like the costs would be reduced by artificial intelligence. AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be. Has anybody else considered this when looking at long-term care insurance-assuming you will not need it for 20 to 30 years?
No I have not. How is artificial intelligence going to wipe my butt, feed me, get me out of bed into a chair and do skin care for my decubitus wounds?
https://www.geek.com/tech/this-butt-wip ... o-1682650/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDprrrEdomM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3lxBDc-IUw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fnv_3qn3Yc

And so on. And no a lot of those aren't exactly commercial ready. But a lot can happen over 10-20 years of research and development:) We have ways to have computers interact with the physical world. As the ability to observe and adapt (i.e. how much force do you need to apply to lift a person without cracking their bones), the number of tasks they can do will expand. The question is how cheap (i.e. not going to have 100k robotic arm wiping your ass) and flexible these things are. The fully automated LTC isn't something I expect. But finding ways to care for say 5x as many patients with the same number of staff might be possible over the next 20-30 years.
As a physician of 22 years in academic, primary care and hospital medicine arenas, I have seen dramatic changes in healthcare over this time. Physicians and nurses when I first started would actually spend most of their time......with patients. Now, go to any nurses station or medical floor and you will see nurses and physicians sitting in front of a computer checking boxes and documenting piles of useless information. The alphabet soup of overlapping organizations collecting outdated and useless data, documenting criteria to justify the hospitalization, making pages of data that only clutters and dilutes the important information about that patients care. It all hides behind reducing errors and improving quality, which I can tell you first hand does neither. It only creates unintended consequences. Of course much of this is man made legalistic and insurance problems, but the idea of walking into a nursing home or hospital and seeing robots taking care of my loved one, isolated and without connection to humankind is a nightmare of a future. I sincerely hope I am not around for this.

Doc Vader - real physician. Very funny. My life.

https://youtu.be/G2Ll7a9x0mw
Last edited by Ferdinand2014 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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flah
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by flah » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 pm

I think OP is suggesting AI and automation will eliminate many jobs, thus making the pool of people willing to work in LTC larger, thereby driving wages and costs down. However, LTC jobs already pay very badly, worse than jobs in fast food.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 pm

regularguy455 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 am
AAA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:16 am
I think the accomplishments and promises of AI are exaggerated to begin with and I don't understand how it could be used in long-term care.
+1

IMO, AI is largely oversold. It’s just a technology that facilitates automated decision making.
+2

We've been told for years that AI would do things that it hasn't yet. They still have a long way to go just to create a car that can drive itself on unknown roads. And in this instance, we aren't talking about AI, we're talking about robots. I think that we're still a long way from creating a robot that can feed, dress, bathe, etc. reliably enough to replace a human, much less costing less than a human.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:10 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:01 pm
Of course much of this is man made legalistic and insurance problems, but the idea of walking into a nursing home or hospital and seeing robots taking care of my loved one, isolated and without connection to humankind is a nightmare of a future. I sincerely hope I am not around for this.
That brings up a big point that I heard one lawyer bring up, though I've never heard anyone else do so: if/when AI/robot screws up, who will held responsible? The owner of the AI/robot? The manufacturer of the physical elements? The one who coded it? It can be a legal nightmare to decipher such things already. Self-driving cars will be a huge legal headache. By comparison, healthcare administered by a robot seems likely to be Nightmare on Elm Street from a legal perspective.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 pm

flah wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 pm
I think OP is suggesting AI and automation will eliminate many jobs, thus making the pool of people willing to work in LTC larger, thereby driving wages and costs down. However, LTC jobs already pay very badly, worse than jobs in fast food.
True. Granted I live in a VLCOL area, but CNA’s start at $10/hour.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:10 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:01 pm
Of course much of this is man made legalistic and insurance problems, but the idea of walking into a nursing home or hospital and seeing robots taking care of my loved one, isolated and without connection to humankind is a nightmare of a future. I sincerely hope I am not around for this.
That brings up a big point that I heard one lawyer bring up, though I've never heard anyone else do so: if/when AI/robot screws up, who will held responsible? The owner of the AI/robot? The manufacturer of the physical elements? The one who coded it? It can be a legal nightmare to decipher such things already. Self-driving cars will be a huge legal headache. By comparison, healthcare administered by a robot seems likely to be Nightmare on Elm Street from a legal perspective.
Very true.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by KyleAAA » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:30 pm

Likely, if only indirectly. But as mentioned above, advancements in medicine will probably extend your life enough to wipe out any savings.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by randomguy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:40 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:10 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:01 pm
Of course much of this is man made legalistic and insurance problems, but the idea of walking into a nursing home or hospital and seeing robots taking care of my loved one, isolated and without connection to humankind is a nightmare of a future. I sincerely hope I am not around for this.
That brings up a big point that I heard one lawyer bring up, though I've never heard anyone else do so: if/when AI/robot screws up, who will held responsible? The owner of the AI/robot? The manufacturer of the physical elements? The one who coded it? It can be a legal nightmare to decipher such things already. Self-driving cars will be a huge legal headache. By comparison, healthcare administered by a robot seems likely to be Nightmare on Elm Street from a legal perspective.
We worked out all these problems when cars came out the first time. I have no doubt we will work them out again. To some extent it doesn't matter who is liable. Someone is and they will buy insurance to cover it. If I pay 1000 to the auto insurance company directly or if I write 1000 check to get a yearly license to use the software seems like a pretty minor issue. I expect over the next 10-20 years as this tech rolls out, that we will figure it all out. Same thing with medical issues. Things will work out.

As far as this being a nightmare of a future, which case do you want for your loved ones

a) you are dependant on waiting for someone to come and move you to the bathroom, feed your, or to take you to visit a friend. You are the mercy of their availability

b) if you want to go to the bathroom, eat a meal, or visit a friend , your local robot instantly reacts to your desires. You still control your life

A sounds more like a nightmare to me than B. Obviously we have no clue exactly what the future will bring as we don't know what the tech levels will be. There are tons of tech success stories are reducing isolation and improving the life of disabled people. There are also plenty of failures. If the future is IV drips, catheter tubes, and everyone wearing Occulus Rifts we can talk about a nightmare of a future. Although according to some people on this board, that still might be better than a medicaid facility:)

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the need for long-term care?

Post by visualguy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:58 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:05 am
I have not considered it. Instead, I thought of a relative simple way to try to reduce the need for long-term care at all.

I had Thanksgiving dinner with friends I have known for 40 years. Two of their parents were using wheel chairs and in their 90s. It was quite a big deal to get them from their cars to the dinner table and back. Here is the simple way: Starting when you are age 20 or younger, put a bathroom scale and a full-length mirror next to your bathtub or shower. Weigh yourself every single day of your life. That's it. I think that is a simple thing to do.
It's not so clear if a healthier lifestyle helps or hurts with the need for a lot of LTC later on in life... Longevity isn't a good thing if you want to avoid LTC :wink:

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by visualguy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:11 am

illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm
Some friends I have that do some work in that space, they feel like they understand the disease better and feel some major breakthroughs will arrive. I don't mean like in the immediate future, but the idea of effective treatments that either prevent or dramatically help some forms of it it in like 10+ years seems reasonable to me. I don't think though it's going to be "cured" like polio, but look at something like HIV/AIDS. It's not "cured" but we thought people like Magic Johnson would not comfortably live into their old age.

Meanwhile, just making a robot "walk" like a human is an enormous feat, I find it more far-fetched that some sort of solution like that arrives that could do the delicate tasks of being a caregiver than curtailing what puts a lot of people in places like that.
Viruses are very different from degenerative neurological diseases. I don't think a cure or an effective treatment has ever been found for any of these neurological diseases, so I see no reason for optimism on the Alzheimer's front, but I hope I'm wrong.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by djpeteski » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:37 am

AAA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:16 am
I think the accomplishments and promises of AI are exaggerated to begin with and I don't understand how it could be used in long-term care.
In some cases the effectiveness of AI is actually being downplayed. AI/data mining is being used effectively to do more target marketing. By tokenizing your credit card and enrollment in loyalty programs, AI can be used to see what marketing campaigns are most effective. In the end it is being used to separate us from our hard earned money.

How it applies to LTC is beyond me.

This effective marketing means the average consumer will have less funds available for quality long term care.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:15 am

Will 3D printing reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will gene therapy reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will social networking reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will global warming reduce the cost of long-term care?

Who knows? It doesn't seem like anything you can put in a spreadsheet or use in planning.

It sounds to me as if Ependytis is reaching for reasons not to buy long-term care insurance and not worry about it.

As for "AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be," if we don't know where it will be in 20 or 30 years then we can't plan anything around it.

And--having personally taking a course from Marvin Minsky in the 1960s--I think most would say that AI has not come anywhere near as far as people were expecting. I keep looking for a sourced quotation and not finding it, but I am quite sure that in the 1960s John McCarthy said that all of the fundamental problems in artificial intelligence had been solved, and that all that was needed to achieve human-like intelligence was a machine with "a million words of memory." (That is, about 6 megabytes or 0.006 gigabytes of RAM).
Last edited by nisiprius on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by AAA » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:18 am

randomguy wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:40 am
As far as this being a nightmare of a future, which case do you want for your loved ones
a) you are dependant on waiting for someone to come and move you to the bathroom, feed your, or to take you to visit a friend. You are the mercy of their availability
b) if you want to go to the bathroom, eat a meal, or visit a friend , your local robot instantly reacts to your desires. You still control your life

A sounds more like a nightmare to me than B.
You are assuming that the robots would be in plentiful supply at the facility and instantly available. In reality, the facility will calculate how few robots they need to purchase in order to meet some predetermined response time that may or may not be better than what they have with human staff.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by AAA » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:28 am

randomguy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:26 pm
Think about how low of IQ you need to be able to drive and how disruptive it will be if cars are able to do it.
I don't know exactly what IQ measures, but it seems to me that a lot of brain power is needed to be able to drive and maybe we just don't always realize it. You are constantly encountering potentially new situations - configuration of vehicles around you, lighting conditions, weather conditions, road conditions, strange noise from your car, passenger conversation, etc. I don't think AI is any where near being able to handle this.

As I've joked before, I can just hear it now: Recommended Car OS update 3.2.5: this update fixes a bug in which the windshield wipers would come on instead of the brakes being applied in certain emergency situations.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:56 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:06 pm
regularguy455 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:23 am
AAA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:16 am
I think the accomplishments and promises of AI are exaggerated to begin with and I don't understand how it could be used in long-term care.
+1

IMO, AI is largely oversold. It’s just a technology that facilitates automated decision making.
+2

We've been told for years that AI would do things that it hasn't yet. They still have a long way to go just to create a car that can drive itself on unknown roads. And in this instance, we aren't talking about AI, we're talking about robots. I think that we're still a long way from creating a robot that can feed, dress, bathe, etc. reliably enough to replace a human, much less costing less than a human.
Yes, we are extremely far away from such a magic robot. Among other things, the people being helped do not always behave in predictable fashion.

I will say that building a true self-driving car (able to handle all the situations a human could handle) is a terribly difficult task, so the fact we haven't done that yet isn't surprising.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:21 am

randomguy wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:40 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:10 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:01 pm
Of course much of this is man made legalistic and insurance problems, but the idea of walking into a nursing home or hospital and seeing robots taking care of my loved one, isolated and without connection to humankind is a nightmare of a future. I sincerely hope I am not around for this.
That brings up a big point that I heard one lawyer bring up, though I've never heard anyone else do so: if/when AI/robot screws up, who will held responsible? The owner of the AI/robot? The manufacturer of the physical elements? The one who coded it? It can be a legal nightmare to decipher such things already. Self-driving cars will be a huge legal headache. By comparison, healthcare administered by a robot seems likely to be Nightmare on Elm Street from a legal perspective.
We worked out all these problems when cars came out the first time. I have no doubt we will work them out again.
The nightmare I'm referring to relates to the law. When it comes to people driving cars, it's relatively easy to place the legal blame on the driver at fault. But when someone, perhaps multiple entities working in conjunction, other than the owner of the vehicle is not the one operating the vehicle, it will become a huge legal issue. This isn't just my take; listen to Steve Lehto, an attorney with decades of experience in lemon law for automobiles, discuss it.

If everything works correctly, self-driving cars would be a huge boon to society, saving thousands of lives every year and potentially reducing traffic congestion by orders of magnitude in some situations. If everything works correctly, a robot who can cost effectively administer LTC could enable many individuals, including those with limited resources, to live their lives as they want. But there are still lots of hurdles, not just legal issues, with self-driving cars, and we're not even close to a LTC robot.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by smitcat » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:28 am

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:15 am
Will 3D printing reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will gene therapy reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will social networking reduce the cost of long-term care?
Will global warming reduce the cost of long-term care?

Who knows? It doesn't seem like anything you can put in a spreadsheet or use in planning.

It sounds to me as if Ependytis is reaching for reasons not to buy long-term care insurance and not worry about it.

As for "AI has come a long ways and in 20 or 30 years who knows where it will be," if we don't know where it will be in 20 or 30 years then we can't plan anything around it.

And--having personally taking a course from Marvin Minsky in the 1960s--I think most would say that AI has not come anywhere near as far as people were expecting. I keep looking for a sourced quotation and not finding it, but I am quite sure that in the 1960s John McCarthy said that all of the fundamental problems in artificial intelligence had been solved, and that all that was needed to achieve human-like intelligence was a machine with "a million words of memory." (That is, about 6 megabytes or 0.006 gigabytes of RAM).
Excellent post - well presented.
Perhaps the more applicable question for the shorter term and most folks would be:
Will the near term technology advances (including AI) replace my job or lower earnings potential?

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:42 am

smitcat wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:28 am
Perhaps the more applicable question for the shorter term and most folks would be:
Will the near term technology advances (including AI) replace my job or lower earnings potential?
I agree that that is by far the more relevant question people should be asking themselves today. Personally, my view is that the threat of widespread job loss due to technology is not as immediate or severe as many have made it out to be.

As evidence of this, look at what happened in the field of agriculture. 50-75% of the population once worked in that space. In most of the developed world, that number has dropped to under 5%. Yet we haven't seen the 45-70% whose jobs were replaced become unemployed. Rather, countless new jobs have been created along the way. Replacing those jobs due to technology was a great advancement for mankind. Why should we expect anything different now? "This time is different" seems very suspect to me.

Image

In a real way, people's jobs have been at risk of being eliminated due to technological advances for hundreds of years. What we've seen in more recent times is the technological process speeding up, forcing people to retool themselves and acquire new skills. Think of the people who got college degrees in operating computers with punch cards.

Consequently, it would probably behoove many to ask themselves if their jobs could easily be replaced by a computer program.
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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by HoosierJim » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:54 am

Automation tends to replace expensive, high payback or dangerous work. As stated above, harvesting is very labor intensive. But here is a machine that does strawberry harvesting. Or carrot harvesting., or the Wizard of Oz.

Take assisting people to use a shower or toilet. The work is hard and can be dangerous - patient slips or care provider hurts their back. A worker comp claim for a back injury could cost $20k.

So let's say the goal of a long-term facility is to get everybody out of bed, to the toilet, washed and delivered to a clean bed.

I could see an automated bed drive the patient to the automated bathroom/shower and delivered dry back to a clean bed that takes the person back to their room. This isn't exactly like tracking boxes on a conveyor at a UPS facility, so this is where AI will help. As LTC numbers increase, the profit motivation will drive these changes.
Last edited by HoosierJim on Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:03 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by tadamsmar » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:59 am

TN_Boy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:38 pm
tadamsmar wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:00 pm
Here is an AI application that has to reduced LTC costs in a pilot program.
For the past two years, an innovative assisted living facility (ALF) in Lincoln County, Maine, has attempted to improve the care of its residents by equipping its caregivers with technology that tracks care provided, offers reminders to caregivers, and provides analysis on patients’ health statuses.

The technology contributes to improved care and fewer residents transitioning to higher-cost long-term care facilities: The net savings from aging in an ALF versus a nursing home is approximately $50,000 per year.
https://www.hfma.org/topics/article/56248.html

They are just using reminders, tracking, and analysis. Stuff many of us already use every day due to the AI (if you want to call it that) that is already available. It seems that just applying technology that is already available can save money.
That's interesting, thanks for the link.

Though the study was quite small. I wasn't clear from the article how much "AI" was in it. I guess the "analysis" part of the software. It mostly looked like better care tracking.
The savings seem to come from avoiding more expensive care like hospitalization and nursing home care.

They are using Ibis 2.0 from Sensico Systems Inc. They use AI and sensor data.

http://www.sensciosystems.com/news/ibis ... based-care

http://www.sensciosystems.com/artificia ... gence.html

Seems that the application area is called Population Health Management.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:03 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:59 am
TN_Boy wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:38 pm
tadamsmar wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:00 pm
Here is an AI application that has to reduced LTC costs in a pilot program.
For the past two years, an innovative assisted living facility (ALF) in Lincoln County, Maine, has attempted to improve the care of its residents by equipping its caregivers with technology that tracks care provided, offers reminders to caregivers, and provides analysis on patients’ health statuses.

The technology contributes to improved care and fewer residents transitioning to higher-cost long-term care facilities: The net savings from aging in an ALF versus a nursing home is approximately $50,000 per year.
https://www.hfma.org/topics/article/56248.html

They are just using reminders, tracking, and analysis. Stuff many of us already use every day due to the AI (if you want to call it that) that is already available. It seems that just applying technology that is already available can save money.
That's interesting, thanks for the link.

Though the study was quite small. I wasn't clear from the article how much "AI" was in it. I guess the "analysis" part of the software. It mostly looked like better care tracking.
The savings seem to come from avoiding more expensive care like hospitalization and nursing home care. They use AI and sensor data.

They are using Ibis 2.0 from Sensico Systems Inc.

http://www.sensciosystems.com/news/ibis ... based-care

http://www.sensciosystems.com/artificia ... gence.html

Seems that the application area is called Population Health Management.
Yeah but the sample size and trial time is so small/short you'd want to see that replicated in a larger setting. In care facilities, sometimes you see a lot of, umm, turnover one year and less the next.

None of which is to say that this might not be great stuff.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by TN_Boy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:07 am

HoosierJim wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:54 am
Automation tends to replace expensive, high payback or dangerous work. As stated above, harvesting is very labor intensive. But here is a machine that does strawberry harvesting. Or carrot harvesting., or the Wizard of Oz.

Take assisting people to use a shower or toilet. The work is hard and can be dangerous - patient slips or care provider hurts their back. A worker comp claim for a back injury could cost $20k.

So let's say the goal of a long-term facility is to get everybody out of bed, to the toilet, washed and delivered clean bedding.

I could see an automated bed drive the patient to the automated bathroom/shower and delivered dry back to a clean bed that takes the person back to their room. This isn't exactly like tracking boxes on a conveyor at a UPS facility, so this is where AI will help. As LTC numbers increase, the profit motivation will drive these changes.
I couldn't see that without human intervention. Though it might be possible for a human to oversee a transfer, possibly multiple simultaneous ones, and thus save staff that way.

But I've seen caregivers helping elderly patients and we are a very very long way from being able to automate that. Too many unpredictable small things go on in those situations.

Now, automating a bed change, that's a thought. Though you might need a special bed.

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Re: Will artificial intelligence reduce the cost for long-term care?

Post by illumination » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:23 am

visualguy wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:11 am
illumination wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm
Some friends I have that do some work in that space, they feel like they understand the disease better and feel some major breakthroughs will arrive. I don't mean like in the immediate future, but the idea of effective treatments that either prevent or dramatically help some forms of it it in like 10+ years seems reasonable to me. I don't think though it's going to be "cured" like polio, but look at something like HIV/AIDS. It's not "cured" but we thought people like Magic Johnson would not comfortably live into their old age.

Meanwhile, just making a robot "walk" like a human is an enormous feat, I find it more far-fetched that some sort of solution like that arrives that could do the delicate tasks of being a caregiver than curtailing what puts a lot of people in places like that.
Viruses are very different from degenerative neurological diseases. I don't think a cure or an effective treatment has ever been found for any of these neurological diseases, so I see no reason for optimism on the Alzheimer's front, but I hope I'm wrong.
There's already treatments that slow down the production of the amyloid plague formation and how the brain reacts to it. They've also used these treatments in plague formation around organs like the heart that make an enormous difference. I could see treatments beings something like Lipitor/statins where you take it and it helps reduce the chance of having that plague build up.

It's probably not something on the horizon where someone who already is deep into Alzheimers is going to be cured (just like someone who has AIDS isn't probably going to take a pill and not have it anymore) but I see definitely could see a treatment in my lifetime where it could be reduced to where it keeps a lot of people out of of these facilities.

I just know when my grandmother had to go to a facility, she was otherwise quite healthy, but her brain was not, started doing dangerous things like wandering her neighborhood. I think that probably describes a lot of people that have to go to places like that for long term care. If you could dramatically slow that down, it would make a big difference.
Last edited by illumination on Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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