Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:58 am

I have a portfolio invested with an asset allocation of about 60% equities and 40% bonds or 60/40. A benchmark that I use is the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund (VSMGX) which is composed of all index funds and has a static 60/40 asset allocation.

Since the 2018 high of VSMGX 22 months ago, how well do you think is has performed?

-11?
-6% ?
+1% ?
+6% ?
11% ?
16% ?

Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VSMGX?

Don't forget, isn't the stock market at an ALL TIME HIGH?
Last edited by livesoft on Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

niceguy7376
Posts: 2460
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:59 pm
Location: Metro ATL

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by niceguy7376 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:02 am

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:58 am
Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VBTLX?
Livesoft, something is wrong in above question. You mentioned the same fund twice

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:03 am

Thanks! Maybe I should leave the mistake there to make sure folks really read? :twisted:
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Globalviewer58
Posts: 538
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:26 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Globalviewer58 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:13 am

I peeked and found the answer interesting. Thanks for the thought exercise.

Dude2
Posts: 925
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 3:40 pm
Location: Abu Dhabi

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Dude2 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:13 am

Without peeking, I'd guess the +1% number. Thinking that the 2018 highs must be similar to the current highs in terms of the stock market, maybe a bit more. Rates dropped for bonds which gave them a bump. I'd guess it is very possible TBM outperformed LSMG. I'd be surprised that both of those combined would put us up to the next bucket of +6%, but maybe. Boy, do I feel dumb.

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 39470
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:20 am

I didn't peek, and I actually put a number in my mind when I saw the thread title, before looking at your range of answers. So here goes, and maybe I'll get egg on my face. But I'll copper my bets by making two guesses.

My first guess, just looking at the title, is that I don't think bonds have come down much yet, so, I was thinking, up 8%.

My second guess, looking at your answers and applying quizmanship, is that you wouldn't have been so obvious as to put the right answer near the center of the range, so it's probably the extreme answer, up 16%.

I can't play rock-paper-scissors well, but despite your cryptic final comments I'm going to guess that VBTLX beat VSMGX.

You referred to "the 2018 highs" and "22 months ago," which would be sometime in January, 2018. On Morningstar's growth chart, the high, tabulated at weekly intervals, seems to be 1/26/2018.

Don't click here, that would be peeking. Or peaking. Or piquing.

I'm can't duplicate any of your answers precisely, livesoft, so maybe you could tell us the exact starting date, and whether you're looking at a total growth (including dividends), which is what I assume, or whether it's price.
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

lakpr
Posts: 3095
Joined: Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:59 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by lakpr » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:21 am

Answer is 16% for the VSMGX and 10% for the VBTLX -- since I am invested in both funds. I didn't peek now -- promise -- but I did look at my quarter-end statement from Vanguard about two to three weeks ago.

retiredjg
Posts: 38477
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:56 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by retiredjg » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:34 am

Interesting observation, livesoft.

yogesh
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:20 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by yogesh » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:43 am

From highs probably break even or like 1-3%
Bonds definitely made 3-5%
Total bond > 60/40
Emergency: FDIC | Taxable: VTMFX | Retirement: TR2040

keystone
Posts: 543
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:34 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by keystone » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:13 am

Great thread topic!!

I guessed 1% and I only peeked because I saw a typically very astute poster on this thread make a guess that I surmised was wildly off.

When will you post your official answer?

Nowizard
Posts: 2353
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:33 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Nowizard » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:57 am

Based on our 60/40 portfolio returns, I would hope it is 16% for those in Life Strategy.

Tim

KlangFool
Posts: 14177
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by KlangFool » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:04 am

OP,

I take 6% for VSMGX and 11% for VBTLX.

KlangFool

jym
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 9:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by jym » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:11 am

We're all responding to the question "how well do you think it has performed?" but I'm pretty sure some are looking at price charts and others are looking at growth charts.

Bir48die
Posts: 109
Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:25 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Bir48die » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:14 am

This is interesting as I just wrote on a different thread my AA. Went to 60/40 last October. My two portfolios were up 16% and 17% respectively. I assume it was 16%

retiredjg
Posts: 38477
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:56 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by retiredjg » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:36 am

jym wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:11 am
We're all responding to the question "how well do you think it has performed?" but I'm pretty sure some are looking at price charts and others are looking at growth charts.
I think you are right. At first I looked at price, but then decided he probably meant growth chart.

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:20 pm

Thanks to all who participated in this thread. I used a legacy M* growth-of chart dates 01/27/2018 to 11/16/2019. Legacy M* charts have a problem at both end points, so one-day changes make a difference. nisiprius's link used start/end dates that differ from the one's I used by one day each. The new chart tool at M* (that is, not the legacy one) may have this bug fixed (try it with dates 01/26/2018 to 11/15/2019).

VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Expro
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:37 am
Location: Girona

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Expro » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:34 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:20 pm

VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.
So I can relax now? :shock:

Dottie57
Posts: 7187
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm
Location: Earth Northern Hemisphere

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Dottie57 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:47 pm

About 12% . 60/40. Then to 50/50 in summer. I peeked earlier this week.

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:47 pm

Expro wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:34 pm
So I can relax now? :shock:
If you are a retiree living off your portfolio, then you may have a lower portfolio value today than you did 22 months ago because of your withdrawals to pay expenses. That might dissuade you from relaxing now.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 39470
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:14 pm

Looking at historical results for holding a $10,000 investment in VSMGX over periods of two years:

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
11/1994 - 6/2019; 296 months total
(limited by range of available data for VSMGX):

Length of holding period: 24 months
Total number of overlapping 24-month periods: 273
Average number of dollars earned in 24 months on a $10,000 investment: $1622.31
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 273 24-month periods: 7.81%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized): 9.49%

Frequency of underperformance:
Number of periods in which VSMGX made less than VMMXX: 60/273 = 22.0%
Number of periods in which VSMGX lost money: 47/273 = 17.2%
Number of periods in which VSMGX failed to keep up with inflation: 55/273 = 20.1%

Average amount of underperformance in the times where it occurred:
Versus VMMXX over those 60 loss periods: -$1537.97
Dollar loss: -$1212.02
Real loss of purchasing power (inflation-adjusted): -$1401.48

Worst single 24-month performance:
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3921.53
Dollar loss, 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3176.54
Real loss of purchasing power (inflation-adjusted), 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3603.77

Reward for taking that risk:
Additional return above VMMXX, averaged over 24-month periods: +$1123.09
Return in dollars: +$1622.31
Real return above inflation: +$1180.26

Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period:
VSMGX vs VMMXX, 3/2007 - 2/2009
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 3942
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by JoeRetire » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:33 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:20 pm
VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.
So the combination of VSMGX and VBTLX is a proxy for "the stock market" in your trivia question?
And "soaring" means something more than 6.5% and 9.3% respectively?

Okay.
Don't be a lemming.

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:56 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:33 pm
Okay.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 3942
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by JoeRetire » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:58 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:56 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:33 pm
Okay.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."
(shrug) Not soaring. Okay. I'm not sure what VTSMX has to do with this, nor why you switched from "how well do you think is has performed" to CAGR. It appears that you originally were talking only about VSMGX and VBTLX.

Just trying to understand how you use the terms in the context of your trivia question.
Last edited by JoeRetire on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don't be a lemming.

longinvest
Posts: 3980
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:44 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by longinvest » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:10 pm

I wouldn't pay much attention to the historical returns of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) for periods between inception to the end of 2011, as VSMGX only made the transition to an all-index fund portfolio over a few months starting in October 2011. This is explained in our wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguar ... es_in_2011. I think that it used to hold a market-timing component that did pretty badly during the financial crisis.
Last edited by longinvest on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Bogleheads investment philosophy | One-ETF global balanced index portfolio | VPW

Copernicus
Posts: 335
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Copernicus » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:15 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:20 pm
Thanks to all who participated in this thread. I used a legacy M* growth-of chart dates 01/27/2018 to 11/16/2019. Legacy M* charts have a problem at both end points, so one-day changes make a difference.
I love , but can only get the new one. How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 39470
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:32 pm

Copernicus wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:15 pm
...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 6915
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:40 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:20 pm
Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.
Time to buy equities then!

User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 14269
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by White Coat Investor » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:44 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:58 am
I have a portfolio invested with an asset allocation of about 60% equities and 40% bonds or 60/40. A benchmark that I use is the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund (VSMGX) which is composed of all index funds and has a static 60/40 asset allocation.

Since the 2018 high of VSMGX 22 months ago, how well do you think is has performed?

-11?
-6% ?
+1% ?
+6% ?
11% ?
16% ?

Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VSMGX?

Don't forget, isn't the stock market at an ALL TIME HIGH?
Surprised you started counting at the 2018 high rather than the 2018 low. 2018 was much better known for its December bear market, but maybe the point of your post is that everyone has already forgotten about that.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

Copernicus
Posts: 335
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Copernicus » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:55 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:32 pm
Copernicus wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:15 pm
...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.
GENIUS! Thanks!

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:01 pm

^Don't forget to make a bookmark. :)
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Copernicus
Posts: 335
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Copernicus » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:07 pm

^
nisiprius, Yes! Thanks!

Copernicus
Posts: 335
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 4:38 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by Copernicus » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:08 pm

^
livesoft, Good point! Thanks!

rossington
Posts: 324
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:00 am
Location: Florida

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by rossington » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 6915
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:12 pm

rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
What is the 1-year return? Or 2-year?

longinvest
Posts: 3980
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:44 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by longinvest » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:17 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:12 pm
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
What is the 1-year return? Or 2-year?
According to Vanguard, as of the end of October 2019:
1 year: 12.20%
3 years: 8.57%
5 years: 6.23%

Longer periods would include times when the LifeStrategy funds weren't all-index funds (before 2012).
Bogleheads investment philosophy | One-ETF global balanced index portfolio | VPW

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 3942
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by JoeRetire » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:22 pm

rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?
Don't be a lemming.

rossington
Posts: 324
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:00 am
Location: Florida

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by rossington » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:44 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:22 pm
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?
:beer
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.

User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 4521
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:25 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:32 pm
Copernicus wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:15 pm
...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.
what do you mean "replace vsmgx with the desired ticker symbol"? It lets you add/compare other tickers, but how do you get rid of the vsmgx?

I can't seem to get rid of the original ticker but can add additional tickers.

can you please explain? thanks
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:35 pm

He means in the URL typed into your browser URL field, replace the VSMGX with another mutual fund ticker. It won't work with other tickers such as for ETFs or stocks.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

lakpr
Posts: 3095
Joined: Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:59 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by lakpr » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:35 pm

He means that you manually edit the url to replace the ticker symbol

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX
Edit to, for example:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSAX

User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 4521
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:45 pm

thanks livesoft and lakpr. I get it now. Will definitely use that method going forward. Thanks.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

jsprag
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:25 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by jsprag » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:41 am

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:22 pm
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?
If one initially invested in VSMGX at the beginning of 2019 then they should be delighted with 15.27% YTD.

If one held VSMGX in January 2018, however, then they'd recognize that it took the majority of these 2019 gains just to get them back to where they were more than a year ago.

TropikThunder
Posts: 1866
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by TropikThunder » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:53 am

rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:44 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:22 pm
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?
:beer
YTD performance isn’t very meaningful in this case since the market took a dump in December.

rossington
Posts: 324
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:00 am
Location: Florida

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by rossington » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:05 am

TropikThunder wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:53 am
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:44 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:22 pm
rossington wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:10 pm
If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".
You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?
:beer
YTD performance isn’t very meaningful in this case since the market took a dump in December.
I'm confused,15.27% is not considered "meaningful"?

"Year to date (YTD) refers to the period of time beginning the first day of the current calendar year or fiscal year up to the current date."
Source
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.

jsprag
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:25 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by jsprag » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:23 am

rossington wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:05 am
I'm confused,15.27% is not considered "meaningful"?
What meaning would you like to attach to it?

Is it a meaningful indicator of the overall economy? Meaningful predictor of future VSMGX performance? Meaningful gauge of your financial well-being?

Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since). Since that's not the case for most people, it's a pretty arbitrary starting point for measurement. Just the day we mark one more revolution around the star.

Abandoning "YTD" in favor of, say, "The 19th of last August to date" (19AugTD) sounds absurd, but it is no less arbitrary and carries much more information.

S_Track
Posts: 298
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:33 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by S_Track » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:35 am

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:14 pm
Looking at historical results for holding a $10,000 investment in VSMGX over periods of two years:

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
11/1994 - 6/2019; 296 months total
(limited by range of available data for VSMGX):

Length of holding period: 24 months
Total number of overlapping 24-month periods: 273
Average number of dollars earned in 24 months on a $10,000 investment: $1622.31
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 273 24-month periods: 7.81%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized): 9.49%
Where can I find this historical information, is that on the Morningstar site? I could not find it. Thanks

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 am

jsprag wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:23 am
Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since).
A nitpick: YTD return is if you [had] invested everything on the trading day BEFORE the first trading day of the year. That's because YTD return includes the return of the first trading day of the year. You had to own the investment before the market opened on the first trading day of the year.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

bck63
Posts: 715
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by bck63 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:38 am

livesoft wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:56 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:33 pm
Okay.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."
Compared to what? Inflation? The amount I had last year, plus 6.5%?

6.5% is a great return! Enjoy! All a matter of perspective I guess.

My suggestion: get used to it.

Topic Author
livesoft
Posts: 68664
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by livesoft » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:45 am

bck63 wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:38 am
All a matter of perspective I guess.
This entire thread is about perspective, so I totally agree with that.

Here's another perspective: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund is up 34.45% since last Christmas less than 11 months ago.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

jsprag
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:25 am

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

Post by jsprag » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:29 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 am
jsprag wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:23 am
Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since).
A nitpick: YTD return is if you [had] invested everything on the trading day BEFORE the first trading day of the year. That's because YTD return includes the return of the first trading day of the year. You had to own the investment before the market opened on the first trading day of the year.
I’ll allow it.

Post Reply