Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

[livesoft]

I have a portfolio invested with an asset allocation of about 60% equities and 40% bonds or 60/40. A benchmark that I use is the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund (VSMGX) which is composed of all index funds and has a static 60/40 asset allocation.

Since the 2018 high of VSMGX 22 months ago, how well do you think is has performed?

-11?
-6% ?
+1% ?
+6% ?
11% ?
16% ?

Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VSMGX?

Don't forget, isn't the stock market at an ALL TIME HIGH?

[niceguy7376]

Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VBTLX?

Livesoft, something is wrong in above question. You mentioned the same fund twice

[livesoft]

Thanks! Maybe I should leave the mistake there to make sure folks really read?

[Globalviewer58]

I peeked and found the answer interesting. Thanks for the thought exercise.

[Dude2]

Without peeking, I'd guess the +1% number. Thinking that the 2018 highs must be similar to the current highs in terms of the stock market, maybe a bit more. Rates dropped for bonds which gave them a bump. I'd guess it is very possible TBM outperformed LSMG. I'd be surprised that both of those combined would put us up to the next bucket of +6%, but maybe. Boy, do I feel dumb.

[nisiprius]

I didn't peek, and I actually put a number in my mind when I saw the thread title, before looking at your range of answers. So here goes, and maybe I'll get egg on my face. But I'll copper my bets by making two guesses.

My first guess, just looking at the title, is that I don't think bonds have come down much yet, so, I was thinking, up 8%.

My second guess, looking at your answers and applying quizmanship, is that you wouldn't have been so obvious as to put the right answer near the center of the range, so it's probably the extreme answer, up 16%.

I can't play rock-paper-scissors well, but despite your cryptic final comments I'm going to guess that VBTLX beat VSMGX.

You referred to "the 2018 highs" and "22 months ago," which would be sometime in January, 2018. On Morningstar's growth chart, the high, tabulated at weekly intervals, seems to be 1/26/2018.

Don't click here, that would be peeking. Or peaking. Or piquing.

I'm can't duplicate any of your answers precisely, livesoft, so maybe you could tell us the exact starting date, and whether you're looking at a total growth (including dividends), which is what I assume, or whether it's price.

[lakpr]

Answer is 16% for the VSMGX and 10% for the VBTLX -- since I am invested in both funds. I didn't peek now -- promise -- but I did look at my quarter-end statement from Vanguard about two to three weeks ago.

[retiredjg]

Interesting observation, livesoft.

[yogesh]

From highs probably break even or like 1-3%
Bonds definitely made 3-5%
Total bond > 60/40

[keystone]

Great thread topic!!

I guessed 1% and I only peeked because I saw a typically very astute poster on this thread make a guess that I surmised was wildly off.

When will you post your official answer?

[Nowizard]

Based on our 60/40 portfolio returns, I would hope it is 16% for those in Life Strategy.

Tim

[KlangFool]

OP,

I take 6% for VSMGX and 11% for VBTLX.

KlangFool

[jym]

We're all responding to the question "how well do you think it has performed?" but I'm pretty sure some are looking at price charts and others are looking at growth charts.

[Bir48die]

This is interesting as I just wrote on a different thread my AA. Went to 60/40 last October. My two portfolios were up 16% and 17% respectively. I assume it was 16%

[retiredjg]

We're all responding to the question "how well do you think it has performed?" but I'm pretty sure some are looking at price charts and others are looking at growth charts.

I think you are right. At first I looked at price, but then decided he probably meant growth chart.

[livesoft]

Thanks to all who participated in this thread. I used a legacy M* growth-of chart dates 01/27/2018 to 11/16/2019. Legacy M* charts have a problem at both end points, so one-day changes make a difference. nisiprius's link used start/end dates that differ from the one's I used by one day each. The new chart tool at M* (that is, not the legacy one) may have this bug fixed (try it with dates 01/26/2018 to 11/15/2019).

VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.

[Expro]

VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.

So I can relax now?

[Dottie57]

About 12% . 60/40. Then to 50/50 in summer. I peeked earlier this week.

[livesoft]

So I can relax now?

If you are a retiree living off your portfolio, then you may have a lower portfolio value today than you did 22 months ago because of your withdrawals to pay expenses. That might dissuade you from relaxing now.

[nisiprius]

Looking at historical results for holding a $10,000 investment in VSMGX over periods of two years:

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
11/1994 - 6/2019; 296 months total
(limited by range of available data for VSMGX):

Length of holding period: 24 months
Total number of overlapping 24-month periods: 273
Average number of dollars earned in 24 months on a $10,000 investment: $1622.31
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 273 24-month periods: 7.81%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized): 9.49%

Frequency of underperformance:
Number of periods in which VSMGX made less than VMMXX: 60/273 = 22.0%
Number of periods in which VSMGX lost money: 47/273 = 17.2%
Number of periods in which VSMGX failed to keep up with inflation: 55/273 = 20.1%

Average amount of underperformance in the times where it occurred:
Versus VMMXX over those 60 loss periods: -$1537.97
Dollar loss: -$1212.02
Real loss of purchasing power (inflation-adjusted): -$1401.48

Worst single 24-month performance:
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3921.53
Dollar loss, 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3176.54
Real loss of purchasing power (inflation-adjusted), 3/2007 - 2/2009: -$3603.77

Reward for taking that risk:
Additional return above VMMXX, averaged over 24-month periods: +$1123.09
Return in dollars: +$1622.31
Real return above inflation: +$1180.26

Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period:
VSMGX vs VMMXX, 3/2007 - 2/2009

[JoeRetire]

VSMGX has about 6.5% total return reported for the dates I used while VBTLX has about 9.3%.

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.

So the combination of VSMGX and VBTLX is a proxy for "the stock market" in your trivia question?
And "soaring" means something more than 6.5% and 9.3% respectively?

Okay.

[livesoft]

Okay.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."

[JoeRetire]

Okay.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."

(shrug) Not soaring. Okay. I'm not sure what VTSMX has to do with this, nor why you switched from "how well do you think is has performed" to CAGR. It appears that you originally were talking only about VSMGX and VBTLX.

Just trying to understand how you use the terms in the context of your trivia question.

[longinvest]

I wouldn't pay much attention to the historical returns of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) for periods between inception to the end of 2011, as VSMGX only made the transition to an all-index fund portfolio over a few months starting in October 2011. This is explained in our wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguar ... es_in_2011. I think that it used to hold a market-timing component that did pretty badly during the financial crisis.

[Copernicus]

Thanks to all who participated in this thread. I used a legacy M* growth-of chart dates 01/27/2018 to 11/16/2019. Legacy M* charts have a problem at both end points, so one-day changes make a difference.

I love , but can only get the new one. How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?

[nisiprius]

...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.

[MotoTrojan]

Bottom line: If one thinks the stock market has been soaring, it hasn't.

Time to buy equities then!

[White Coat Investor]

I have a portfolio invested with an asset allocation of about 60% equities and 40% bonds or 60/40. A benchmark that I use is the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund (VSMGX) which is composed of all index funds and has a static 60/40 asset allocation.

Since the 2018 high of VSMGX 22 months ago, how well do you think is has performed?

-11?
-6% ?
+1% ?
+6% ?
11% ?
16% ?

Over the same time period, has the Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) performed better or worse than VSMGX?

Don't forget, isn't the stock market at an ALL TIME HIGH?

Surprised you started counting at the 2018 high rather than the 2018 low. 2018 was much better known for its December bear market, but maybe the point of your post is that everyone has already forgotten about that.

[Copernicus]

...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.

GENIUS! Thanks!

[livesoft]

^Don't forget to make a bookmark.

[Copernicus]

^
nisiprius, Yes! Thanks!

[Copernicus]

^
livesoft, Good point! Thanks!

[rossington]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

[MotoTrojan]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

What is the 1-year return? Or 2-year?

[longinvest]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

What is the 1-year return? Or 2-year?

According to Vanguard, as of the end of October 2019:
1 year: 12.20%
3 years: 8.57%
5 years: 6.23%

Longer periods would include times when the LifeStrategy funds weren't all-index funds (before 2012).

[JoeRetire]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?

[rossington]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

...How does one get access to the legacy M* charting tool now?...

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX

after replacing "VSMGX" with the desired ticker symbol. If you make a typo or type a symbol Morningstar doesn't have data for, you'll get back to the current Morningstar site, i.e. there's no way to search for the main ticker symbol without leaving the legacy charting tool. However, it will still do searches for things you type in the "compare to" box.

what do you mean "replace vsmgx with the desired ticker symbol"? It lets you add/compare other tickers, but how do you get rid of the vsmgx?

I can't seem to get rid of the original ticker but can add additional tickers.

can you please explain? thanks

[livesoft]

He means in the URL typed into your browser URL field, replace the VSMGX with another mutual fund ticker. It won't work with other tickers such as for ETFs or stocks.

[lakpr]

He means that you manually edit the url to replace the ticker symbol

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VSMGX
Edit to, for example:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSAX

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

thanks livesoft and lakpr. I get it now. Will definitely use that method going forward. Thanks.

[jsprag]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?

If one initially invested in VSMGX at the beginning of 2019 then they should be delighted with 15.27% YTD.

If one held VSMGX in January 2018, however, then they'd recognize that it took the majority of these 2019 gains just to get them back to where they were more than a year ago.

[TropikThunder]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?

YTD performance isn’t very meaningful in this case since the market took a dump in December.

[rossington]

If anyone cares VSMGX has a15.27% YTD return as of 11/15 according to a Google search. Not too shabby. After all it is a "Moderate Growth Fund".

You mean the Moderate fund isn't soaring yet has returned 15.27% YTD?

YTD performance isn’t very meaningful in this case since the market took a dump in December.

I'm confused,15.27% is not considered "meaningful"?

"Year to date (YTD) refers to the period of time beginning the first day of the current calendar year or fiscal year up to the current date."
Source

[jsprag]

I'm confused,15.27% is not considered "meaningful"?

What meaning would you like to attach to it?

Is it a meaningful indicator of the overall economy? Meaningful predictor of future VSMGX performance? Meaningful gauge of your financial well-being?

Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since). Since that's not the case for most people, it's a pretty arbitrary starting point for measurement. Just the day we mark one more revolution around the star.

Abandoning "YTD" in favor of, say, "The 19th of last August to date" (19AugTD) sounds absurd, but it is no less arbitrary and carries much more information.

[S_Track]

Looking at historical results for holding a $10,000 investment in VSMGX over periods of two years:

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
11/1994 - 6/2019; 296 months total
(limited by range of available data for VSMGX):

Length of holding period: 24 months
Total number of overlapping 24-month periods: 273
Average number of dollars earned in 24 months on a $10,000 investment: $1622.31
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 273 24-month periods: 7.81%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized): 9.49%

Where can I find this historical information, is that on the Morningstar site? I could not find it. Thanks

[livesoft]

Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since).

A nitpick: YTD return is if you [had] invested everything on the trading day BEFORE the first trading day of the year. That's because YTD return includes the return of the first trading day of the year. You had to own the investment before the market opened on the first trading day of the year.

[bck63]

Okay.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index has a total return of 11.50% in that ~22 month period or about 6% CAGR which I don't think anyone could legitimately describe as "soaring."

Compared to what? Inflation? The amount I had last year, plus 6.5%?

6.5% is a great return! Enjoy! All a matter of perspective I guess.

My suggestion: get used to it.

[livesoft]

All a matter of perspective I guess.

This entire thread is about perspective, so I totally agree with that.

Here's another perspective: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund is up 34.45% since last Christmas less than 11 months ago.

[jsprag]

Any YTD value is only relevant if you invested everything on the first trading day of the year (nothing before, and nothing since).

A nitpick: YTD return is if you [had] invested everything on the trading day BEFORE the first trading day of the year. That's because YTD return includes the return of the first trading day of the year. You had to own the investment before the market opened on the first trading day of the year.

I’ll allow it.