convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

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linate
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convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by linate » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm

my dad says it makes sense to buy when stocks are good and sell when stocks are bad. it's a terrible approach that means he's buying high and selling low. but one thing he says sort of makes possible sense. what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell? i think a lot of people do this, that's why sell offs often lead to more sell offs. and then you buy back in once the index is starting to go back up.

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by David Jay » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:08 pm

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell?
Here is the classic quote:

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." - John Bogle
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by bloom2708 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:12 pm

Did he sell last December when stocks were off 20%?

Think of how many times just since 2009 that the bubble was bursting. The sky was falling. None of those calls of the top were correct.

Most can't guess correctly once. Getting back in is even harder. I have a smart friend who never got back in after 08/09. Kept thinking it was the top. Just nuts.

This is why we state to have the correct mix of stocks and bonds for your age and risk appetite. He should be at a level of stocks where it doesn't matter. 20, 30, maybe 40% if he is retired.
Last edited by bloom2708 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Silk McCue » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:13 pm

You aren’t even convinced.

No one can know when the market will tank and when it will recover. The hypothetical that you can know sets up a false scenario where success can be achieved when in all actuality it cannot.

Ignorance, fear and greed makes people think they can.

Cheers
Last edited by Silk McCue on Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by delamer » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:13 pm

My thought is that you should set aside some money to support your father in his retirement, because he’s going to be in trouble if he continues to buy high and sell low.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by retired@50 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:50 am

You should do your best to talk him out of this idea. If he sticks with a market timing approach to investing he'll be in financial trouble before too long.
I wish you luck.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Market_timing

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by zlandar » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:12 am

Unless you have a Delorean that runs on plutonium market timing is a terrible idea most of the time. If most active managers who work 24/7 can’t get it right what makes your dad or any other person think he/she can do it?

Ask your dad to reflect back on the last two decades. How well did he predict the 2008 meltdown or the unprecedented rise of the US stock market since then?

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by RickBoglehead » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:32 am

Don't try to talk him out of it.

Don't try to convince him.

Find a book that you think is the easiest to understand, and buy it for him. If he cares enough to read it, he'll convince himself.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Shallowpockets » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:33 am

Your dad should have already been in the market when stocks were good. He has it in reverse.
He should have bought when stocks were bad. Of course that means having the wherewithal and courage to do so.
What was your dad doing before he started to think that stocks were good and thus a good time to buy for him?
The S and P is up to all time highs.Is he buying? Does he have the money to do so, and if so, where has it been.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by tibbitts » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:34 am

zlandar wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:12 am
Unless you have a Delorean that runs on plutonium market timing is a terrible idea most of the time. If most active managers who work 24/7 can’t get it right what makes your dad or any other person think he/she can do it?

Ask your dad to reflect back on the last two decades. How well did he predict the 2008 meltdown or the unprecedented rise of the US stock market since then?
He probably predicted both of them. Along with 83 other significant events that never happened - but he's forgotten about those.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by goblue100 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am

David Jay wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:08 pm
linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell?
Here is the classic quote:

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." - John Bogle
The fantasy is we can sell in October 2007 with the S&P 500 at 1500, buy back in March of 2009 at 770 and be sitting here at 3078. But it is just that, a fantasy. In reality we sell in October of 2008 at 880 and buy back in July of 2009 at 1078.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by David Jay » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:57 am

goblue100 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
The fantasy is we can sell in October 2007 with the S&P 500 at 1500, buy back in March of 2009 at 770 and be sitting here at 3078. But it is just that, a fantasy. In reality we sell in October of 2008 at 880 and buy back in July of 2009 at 1078.
Great illustration - expect to see me copy it shamelessly...
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by magicrat » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:58 am

Ask him to prove it to you by sharing his comprehensive trading and investing history.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by goblue100 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:51 am

David Jay wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:57 am
goblue100 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
The fantasy is we can sell in October 2007 with the S&P 500 at 1500, buy back in March of 2009 at 770 and be sitting here at 3078. But it is just that, a fantasy. In reality we sell in October of 2008 at 880 and buy back in July of 2009 at 1078.
Great illustration - expect to see me copy it shamelessly...
:sharebeer
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by rascott » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:24 am

goblue100 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 am
David Jay wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:08 pm
linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell?
Here is the classic quote:

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." - John Bogle
The fantasy is we can sell in October 2007 with the S&P 500 at 1500, buy back in March of 2009 at 770 and be sitting here at 3078. But it is just that, a fantasy. In reality we sell in October of 2008 at 880 and buy back in July of 2009 at 1078.
Actually a rigid timing system like the 200 day SMA would have had you sell in Jan 2008, and buy back in at July 2009


Going back to 1985, a rigid 200 day SMA strategy would have trailed pure buy and hold by roughly 0.75%... but max drawdowns would have been only 24% vs 51% for buy and hold.

Now maybe OP's dad is sophisticated enough to follow such a rigid policy, but more than likely not.....

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by mptfan » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:36 am

My thoughts are to keep my opinions to myself about how other people invest their money and to avoid trying to convince them to do things my way, unless they ask for my opinion.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by chevca » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:31 am

More money goes in at the tops, and more money goes out at the bottoms. I forget the exact wording and study that's from, but that's the jist of it. We thank people like your dad. :happy

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Frisco Kid » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:39 am

+1000 for Rick Bogleheads suggestion of reading a book. i suggest Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth 20th Anniversary Edition by Nick Murray. Google him, this book was suggested reading by Josh Brown on his blog.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by snailderby » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 pm

Here are a few quotes from https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes:
"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." (Bill Bernstein, author and advisor)
"Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." (Rick Ferri, author and advisor)
"If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market." (Benjamin Graham)
"Market-timing is bunk." (Pat Dorsey, Morningstar Director of Fund Analysis)
"No one is smart enough to time the market's ups and downs." (Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman)
"Investors desperately want to believe they can time the markets, but the statistics tell a different story." (Liz Ann Saunders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist)
"Predicting which way the markets will head next is really a fool's errand." (Gus Sauter, Vanguard Chief Investment Officer)
"I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle)
"Let's say it clearly: No one knows where the market is going -- experts or novices, soothsayers or astrologers. That's the simple truth." (Fortune)
"The evidence is overwhelming that a thousand timers who try to buy when stocks are low, and sell when they are high, is a damnably awful record." (Paul Samuelson, Nobel Laureate)
“The important turning points in markets are never identified with precision in advance by ‘experts’ and policymakers. This lack of foresight is not surprising, because markets and the course of the economy are not modelable scientific phenomena but rather are examples of mass human behavior, which are never predictable with anything like precision. But what is surprising is that even the most sophisticated investors, traders and commentators continue to rely on predictions issued by those who have no record of success at such forecasts." (Paul Singer, hedge fund billionaire, Forbes)

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by GerryL » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:56 pm

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?
CORRECTION: It's NEVER possible to have absolute -- or even almost absolute -- certainty about what the market will do.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by CyclingDuo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:13 pm

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
my dad says it makes sense to buy when stocks are good and sell when stocks are bad. it's a terrible approach that means he's buying high and selling low. but one thing he says sort of makes possible sense. what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell? i think a lot of people do this, that's why sell offs often lead to more sell offs. and then you buy back in once the index is starting to go back up.

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?
Although this chart represents only one time frame covering 2012-2018, it illustrates how often those who think the market is going to go down (and there are many repeat offenders over the years) proclaim it is time to sell...

Image

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:26 pm

https://engaging-data.com/market-timing-game/

This game gives you a random period of actual S&P500 returns with no dates or actual prices (that would be cheating). You can adjust speed and do a buy/sell anytime. Even without considering the tax-drag of trading, it is quite hard to beat the market.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by 1789 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:39 pm

Give him the example of Isaac Newton, the brightest mind of mankind. He will feel better if he knows that even Newton failed to do what he is been trying to achieve.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by KlangFool » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:41 pm

OP,

Unless you are 100% stock or 100% bond, pick a fixed AA between 70/30 to 30/70 and invest regularly, you will always "Buy Low and Sell High".

You are missing one keyword:

Buy, Hold, and Rebalancing.

Try it out and see what happened to invest with fixed AA in a bull market and a bear market and any market in between on a regular basis. If you can convince yourself, you may convince your dad.

KlangFool

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by 1789 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:42 pm

RickBoglehead wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:32 am
Don't try to talk him out of it.

Don't try to convince him.

Find a book that you think is the easiest to understand, and buy it for him. If he cares enough to read it, he'll convince himself.
Excellent suggestion. Why not gifting him "A random walk down wall street ".
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Fallible » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:23 pm

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
my dad says it makes sense to buy when stocks are good and sell when stocks are bad. it's a terrible approach that means he's buying high and selling low. but one thing he says sort of makes possible sense. what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell? i think a lot of people do this, that's why sell offs often lead to more sell offs. and then you buy back in once the index is starting to go back up.

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?
Before you try to convince your dad, be sure you are convinced that knowing with any certainty what the market will do, in your words, "isn't always possible," but simply, in the words of the top pros, not possible. Thus, there is no "certain logic to it."
John Bogle on his early road to low-cost indexing: "When a door closes, if you look long enough and hard enough, if you're strong enough, you'll find a window that opens."

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:35 pm

If it is bad to sell when the market is crashing and buy when stocks are going up, then the opposite must do wonders for one's portfolio. How many people who responded actually do buy more equities when the market are crashing?

The reality is that the above does not doom one to a life of poverty. It does probably slow down accumulation somewhat and perhaps leave one with less in retirement or require one to delay retirement by a few months or years. Those are not big problems for folks who actually do invest in equities.

Nevertheless, I have a rule in my Investing Policy Statement that I MUST buy equities when they have a really bad day so that I don't fall into that trap.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by marcopolo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:55 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:35 pm
If it is bad to sell when the market is crashing and buy when stocks are going up, then the opposite must do wonders for one's portfolio. How many people who responded actually do buy more equities when the market are crashing?
I would suspect quite a few that maintain a chosen asset allocation and re-balance, either periodically, or based on band triggers, or RBD indicators, would actually be buying during crashes. I know i did during the great recession. My bands have not been triggered since then, so no selling fixed income to buy more stock since then, but have directed new money heavily into stocks at various times since then as AA drifted away from center of band.

Are you postulating that most people that claim to have an AA that they maintain are really not following through on it?
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by KlangFool » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:57 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:35 pm
If it is bad to sell when the market is crashing and buy when stocks are going up, then the opposite must do wonders for one's portfolio. How many people who responded actually do buy more equities when the market are crashing?

The reality is that the above does not doom one to a life of poverty. It does probably slow down accumulation somewhat and perhaps leave one with less in retirement or require one to delay retirement by a few months or years. Those are not big problems for folks who actually do invest in equities.

Nevertheless, I have a rule in my Investing Policy Statement that I MUST buy equities when they have a really bad day so that I don't fall into that trap.
livesoft,

40% of my portfolio is in the Wellington Fund (65/35). It rebalanced itself all the time.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by livesoft » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:12 am

marcopolo wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:55 pm
Are you postulating that most people that claim to have an AA that they maintain are really not following through on it?
Yes. Definitely, especially during stock market crashes.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by nisiprius » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:17 am

During 2008-2009 my stock allocation was low enough that my wife and I did not place any sell orders. My wife and I were both onboard with the plan of, uh, freezing like a deer in the headlights. And yes, I played fair, I made sure she knew how the number of dollars, listed on the brokerage statement bottom line, compared with what it had been in 2007.

Since a big part of our portfolio at that time was invested in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, I can technically claim that we continued to buy stocks during the decline. But, no, I didn't place any orders myself to buy anything. It also turns out that the rebalancing did not yield any "rebalancing bonus."

The necessary conditions to actually get a "rebalancing bonus" is a long, complicated, perennial debate.

However, if I pick a starting point and endpoint representing "wheee! down, then wheee! back to even," in the Balanced Index fund," portfolio 1, blue, and compare it to a 60/40 holding of Total Stock and Total Bond without rebalancing over the same period, portfolio 2, red...

Source

(Jan 2008 - Oct 2010)

Image

...you will see that $10,000 in the constantly rebalanced Balanced Index fund ended up a princely sixty bucks ahead of not rebalancing. Certainly not close to the fantasy of managing to buy somewhere near the bottom.

Furthermore, you will see that the rebalanced fund fell more, by a meaningful amount, due to constantly buying stocks while their price was declining. It then made that all up on the way back up. But the result was a deeper drawdown, higher volatility as measured by standard deviation. Not sure the Sharpe ratio is meaningful here--risk-adjusted return when the return is zero.
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Mullins » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:48 am

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell?
So, equity moves aren't linear and neither is the market. It goes up, down and sideways. What happens is you get out but then, say the market reverses. There's a rally. It goes on for a couple of days. A week. Do you get back in? If it's a buy signal are you investing more? Then what happens if there's another drop soon after you're back in? Do you use stops? Will you get shaken off and whipsawed out and suffer a thousand cuts from commissions and/or small losses?

Think moving averages give you buy and sell signals? Moving averages tell you what happened days or weeks before, they're not predictive. You'd have to use two moving averages at minimum and then determine how they're to be interpreted.

That's the reality. If you absolutely must try your hand at it, do so with a paper trading account and keep notes for at least a year before you risk money on it. You'll see all the weird little things which can happen.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by pkcrafter » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:06 am

Investor behavior and performance,

O'Shaughnessy: "Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was..."

They were the accounts of people who forgot they had an account at Fidelity."

https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetf ... est-2014-9

https://www.thebalance.com/why-average- ... ns-2388519


Paul
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by dbr » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:15 am

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
my dad says it makes sense to buy when stocks are good and sell when stocks are bad. it's a terrible approach that means he's buying high and selling low. but one thing he says sort of makes possible sense. what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell? i think a lot of people do this, that's why sell offs often lead to more sell offs. and then you buy back in once the index is starting to go back up.

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?
Obviously if you assume the result you prove your point. This is called circular argument, a logical fallacy. The problem, of course, is that in the real world people don't know ahead of time when the market is going to go down nor when the bottom has been reached and the market is going to go up. People do sell and buy thinking they know or knew these things, and in the cases when they are right, they make money. When they are wrong they lose money. Being right repeatedly over time is very unlikely.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 am

The idea for investing is “Sell high, Buy low”. In order to do that you need to sell when stocks are high and buy when they have crashed. I have varied that by continually buying while working an sell when AA is oyt of balance.


In retirement the rule is to sell what is doing the best.

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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by jakehefty17 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:25 pm

linate wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:02 pm
my dad says it makes sense to buy when stocks are good and sell when stocks are bad. it's a terrible approach that means he's buying high and selling low. but one thing he says sort of makes possible sense. what if you knew that the market was going to go down so you sell? i think a lot of people do this, that's why sell offs often lead to more sell offs. and then you buy back in once the index is starting to go back up.

i dont think this is a good approach and stick to buy and hold, but it does have a certain logic to it. but, for one thing, youd have to have an almost absolute certainty the index was going to tank, which isn't always possible. that's my main hang up. what are your thoughts?
A lot of people do this. It's a flawed/oversimplified understanding of how the stock market works. It's fear driven thinking.

I'd say buy and hold is the way to go. Market fluctuations happen. The problem is you can't know if/when they will happen or if it will happen again. So getting in and out at the right times is simply a fools errand.

This entire site is centered around buy and hold with lowest fees possible. Including all the reasoning and data you need. There are books on the subject, authored by highly successful investors. To truly understand anything in life you need to do the research and then get your hands dirty.

If you want to convince your father, I'd suggest buying him a book on the subject. If he doesn't want to read it, then compare % annual returns after taxes and fees. It's not really your business what he does, but he may respect your view more if it shows results.

If you maintain an asset allocation, then re-balance during major market swings. Set up rules regarding your re-balancing ranges and incorporate them into your IPS. Doing this, you can capitalize on major market swings while maintaining your asset allocation (aka staying the course).
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski

Fallible
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Fallible » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:11 pm

pkcrafter wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:06 am
Investor behavior and performance,

O'Shaughnessy: "Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was..."

They were the accounts of people who forgot they had an account at Fidelity."
...
I kinda like Barry Ritholtz's explanation for why those Fidelity investors did so well: "They were dead."

:happy
John Bogle on his early road to low-cost indexing: "When a door closes, if you look long enough and hard enough, if you're strong enough, you'll find a window that opens."

Silk McCue
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by Silk McCue » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:14 pm

Fallible wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:11 pm
I kinda like Barry Ritholtz's explanation for why those Fidelity investors did so well: "They were dead."

:happy
That's one investing strategy I'm not willing to follow any time soon. :)

Cheers

pkcrafter
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Re: convincing someone of the wisdom of 'buy and hold' instead of selling in a market crash

Post by pkcrafter » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:40 pm

Why index funds beat actively managed funds.

https://www.thebalance.com/why-index-fu ... ds-2466411


Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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