VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

tomjonesrocks · Post by **tomjonesrocks** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm

Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

nalor511 · Post by **nalor511** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:53 pm

There was a reason you chose it in the first place. Has that reason changed (permanently)? If so, go ahead and get out of it. If not, stay. Stocks (and sectors) rise and fall. Sometimes US is ahead, sometimes other places. You can pick time periods that ex-US was way way up. I'm staying.

Oak&Elm · Post by **Oak&Elm** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:02 pm

Tom jones, I’ve been thinking the same thing, but instead of selling my international I just turned off auto reinvest of the dividends, that still leaves me around 15%. I will just reinvest the dividends in US TSM for now.

Leif · Post by **Leif** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:09 pm

You said the fund is in your portfolio for "diversification". Should that mean that all the funds in your portfolio are up all at the same time? It is a good fund. Should you give up on it? No. Diversification means sometimes a category is up and sometimes down. You probably have heard "Sell high, buy low", right? A better formula for success than "Sell low, buy high". I know you won't do it, but for me I might be buying instead of selling.

Chrono Triggered · Post by **Chrono Triggered** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:10 pm

Recency bias, which you are exhibiting, can be a very dangerous thing.

Read this recent thread about this very same topic if you haven't already seen it: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=278133

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:17 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

You would buy high and sell low... What's the point of selling now? When you retire/quit your job and have to withdraw money, you can just sell the winner then?

Personally, I have been adding to VTIAX for the past few years, with pleasure!

abuss368 · Post by **abuss368** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:19 pm

You have to do what works best and let’s you sleep at night.

abuss368 · Post by **abuss368** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:25 pm

For us if Vanguard investment experts, you know more about investing than we do, removed the fund, I would probably follow.

abuss368 · Post by **abuss368** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:26 pm

No one knows why the future holds for U.S. or international.

z3r0c00l · Post by **z3r0c00l** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:31 pm

Just sold $10,000 in bonds and got $10,000 in VTIAX to rebalance, does that answer the question adequately from my perspective? : )

The fund pays hefty dividends so if you are looking only at share price you are ignoring much of the return. Using a total return chart you will see that while it has been far from stellar, the fund still made money over the past 3, 5, and 10 years.

As soon as you convince me there is no need to own shares in the companies below, and an additional 7,000 companies in the fund, and that the market pricing of these stocks is somehow irrational, or that these countries/companies fundamentally are incapable of making money, I will stick with it.

1 Nestle SA
2 Tencent Holdings Ltd.
3 Royal Dutch Shell plc
4 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
5 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
6 Novartis AG
7 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
8 Roche Holding AG
9 HSBC Holdings plc
10 Toyota Motor Corp.

The fact that this fund performs so differently from the US Total Stock is confirmation that it offers diversification benefits. If the two had the same performance all the time, I wouldn't need it.

Vulcan · Post by **Vulcan** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:32 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

I gave up on VTIAX.
I also gave up on VTSAX.
I sold both and bought VTWAX.
I'm sleeping a lot better

whodidntante · Post by **whodidntante** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:33 pm

If USA stocks don't return what you think they should for years and years, will you sell those too? Or do you believe that can't happen? Stocks are a good bet, but they are not a sure thing.

FireHorse · Post by **FireHorse** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:38 pm

Oak&Elm wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:02 pm Tom jones, I’ve been thinking the same thing, but instead of selling my international I just turned off auto reinvest of the dividends, that still leaves me around 15%. I will just reinvest the dividends in US TSM for now.

Isn't this a good time to turn the auto reinvest dividend on to buy it at lower price as the market sliding?

delamer · Post by **delamer** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:42 pm

Investing in stocks, of any kind, is something that you do for the purpose of increasing long-run portfolio returns.

So don’t take stocks, of any kind, out of your portfolio because of short-run performance.

dual · Post by **dual** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:46 pm

Here we go again with another interminable thread on international investing where no one leaves with a changed mind.

As for me, to paraphrase Samuel Johnson, international investing is like a second marriage: the triumph of hope over experience.

jibantik · Post by **jibantik** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:23 pm

Vulcan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I gave up on VTIAX.
I also gave up on VTSAX.
I sold both and bought VTWAX.
I'm sleeping a lot better

+1

Munir · Post by **Munir** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:37 pm

Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.

Are you interested in Target Date fund or LifeStrategy fund? You won't see the movements of each component and it might be a perfect holding for many.

visualguy · Post by **visualguy** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:39 pm

Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.

Many here (like me) prefer not to invest in the ex-US index. That was actually Bogle's view on it, so I wouldn't call it "un-Boglehead"...

esteen · Post by **esteen** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:44 pm

Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.

If your timeline is not long for that pot of money (@ both Munir and tomjonesrocks), you should not have it in stocks, or at least mostly not in stocks. If your timeline is long, you should not even look at short-term performance - don't even log in and check the balance.

Munir · Post by **Munir** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:46 pm

H-Town wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:37 pm
Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.
Are you interested in Target Date fund or LifeStrategy fund? You won't see the movements of each component and it might be a perfect holding for many.

Thank you for the good suggestion. I used to be in Life Strategy Conservative Growth but because nearly all my portfolio is in a traditional IRA and I have an RMD to withdraw every year, I wanted to have the ability to withdraw selectively from my equity or fixed income portions which I cannot do if everything is in one fund.

MathIsMyWayr · Post by **MathIsMyWayr** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:02 pm

When all the hope is gone, and gloom and doom all over the place, it may be the time for a new beginning. I don't intend to be the smartest investor, not even just a smart one, and I will stay put.

Phineas J. Whoopee · Post by **Phineas J. Whoopee** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:28 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

Conflating verb tenses can be hazardous to one's wealth. You're really talking about was, not is or will be. Nobody knows is or will be.

If you want to sell out of it then by all means that's your choice.

PJW

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:55 pm

Don't performance chase. When international starts doing really well, and it will, you'll be asking to get back in when it's too late.

Trader Joe · Post by **Trader Joe** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:07 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

I do not invest in VTIAX. I only invest in VFIAX and I am very happy.

yangtui · Post by **yangtui** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:10 pm

Good timing. I am looking to add VTIAX by year end.

beyou · Post by **beyou** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:12 pm

Vulcan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I gave up on VTIAX.
I also gave up on VTSAX.
I sold both and bought VTWAX.
I'm sleeping a lot better

If only I didn’t have to pay those [darned] cap gains taxes on VTSAX, would do same.

[Edit by moderator oldcomputerguy]

Silence Dogood · Post by **Silence Dogood** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:41 pm

As per the Vanguard Target Retirement funds, 40% of my equity allocation is in Vanguard Total International Stock fund.

My recommendation: Stay the course!

What experts say about "Stay-the-Course"

Jack Bogle: "Stay the Course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you."

stocknoob4111 · Post by **stocknoob4111** » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:56 pm

VTIAX has performed fairly well this year with a 11.15% return as of July 31. Past years have not been good, but perhaps it's going to turn around soon enough?

Fidelity 2040 Target date has a massive 33% International allocation and these funds have billions and millions of people have their trust in them.. I find it hard to believe Fidelity hasn't done some rigorous analysis that led them to this decision!

bogledogle87 · Post by **bogledogle87** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:23 am

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

If you were seeking diversification, I would argue that you absolutely have got what you paid for. VTIAX has performed differently than your other assets.

Now it sounds like you had certain expectations of the fund itself that have not been met, specifically overall performance. It’s likely that your disappointment it coming from a direct comparison to something that has recently performed much better, possibly VTSAX.

Assuming you are a VTSAX owner as well, let me ask you this: Are you troubled by the performance of the US Energy sector as opposed to US Technology the last 10 years? US Energy has far underperformed VTIAX and the Total US market far underperforming US Technology. My assumption is that these details probably don’t bother you as much.

If you still seek diversification, you might take some comfort in the stark difference in US vs International price valuations currently. Many are celebrating this gap as an excellent buying opportunity for international and an even more significant diversifier than it was even a few years ago.

For me, it is too daunting a task to try to pick what the sectors, countries, or company sizes will outperform rest. This is why I am a Total World Index investor in VTWAX as the simplist, most complete, unbiased stock portfolio available.

PhilosophyAndrew · Post by **PhilosophyAndrew** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:32 am

OP, if you have made a principled decision to add diversity to your holdings by investing in both domestic and international equities, shouldn’t you simply use whatever rebalancing procedure you have sleeted to “buy low” whichever type of equity happens to be lagging behind?

Instead, you seem to be tempted to “sell low.” Will you do the same thing during a future period when domestic equities lag international?

These sound like behavioral mistakes driven by the frustration you describe. If you value diversity, stay the course by rebalancing according to the allocations you have identified in your investment plan. (And reevaluate those assessments only when your plan specifies, not simply when you feel frustrated.)

Andy.

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

bogledogle87 · Post by **bogledogle87** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:11 am

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm ...it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Would you say your foresight this based on recent performance, price, earnings, or something else? I don't know if they will be proved right, but many financial experts (including nearly all of the major brokers) believe that International is poised for a much better run than US going forward due to the extremely low relative price relative to it's fundamentals.

owenmia · Post by **owenmia** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:11 am

Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.

What is your timeline, just out of curiosity?

Munir · Post by **Munir** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:56 am

owenmia wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:11 am
Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.
What is your timeline, just out of curiosity?

5-8 years.

owenmia · Post by **owenmia** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:58 am

Ok. Mine is 15. Just wondered what you meant when you said you did not have a long enough timeline.

DarkNyte · Post by **DarkNyte** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:06 am

Last year this time I kept seeing posts like this but in reference to VNQ. Not seeing those posts anymore, and I'm glad I didn't let them change my position in VNQ. VXUS will have its time to shine as well.

ruralavalon · Post by **ruralavalon** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:45 am

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

In a diversified portfolio there is always some investment which lags the others.

I suggest keeping Vanguard Stock International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX).

Short-term past performance is not a good predictor of future performance. Please see this chart: "Callan periodic table of investment returns". That table shows annual returns for nine fund types ranked best to worst over the years 1999-2018 (20 years). There is no pattern, it is random.
The rankings change every year, thereby demonstrating two key principles of investing:
(1) diversification: by owning the entire market (all of the asset classes), susceptibility to changes in market returns is minimized.
(2) past performance does not predict future performance.

atdharris · Post by **atdharris** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 am

We can debate this issue for all eternity. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. People will argue that international someday will shine once again.

And that may be, but I am more interested in emerging markets rather than international developed. I have not seen any compelling reason to invest there. Europe's economy has been stagnant for a decade. Their population is aging and growth is slow, and they lack innovative companies that would drive their markets higher.

World economies are now more interconnected than ever. What scenario is there that we would see the US economy and markets struggle while Europe and other international developed markets thrived? I cannot think of one. Maybe someone else can.

With all of that said, I cannot predict the future, so I do have some exposure, 10%, to international developed markets and about 8% to emerging markets. But I cannot agree with those who say you put 40% of your portfolio into foreign markets. Maybe in the past, when economies were more isolated, there was a chance Europe would outperform compared to the US, but I can't see it now.

robertmcd · Post by **robertmcd** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:26 am

atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 am We can debate this issue for all eternity. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. People will argue that international someday will shine once again.

And that may be, but I am more interested in emerging markets rather than international developed. I have not seen any compelling reason to invest there. Europe's economy has been stagnant for a decade. Their population is aging and growth is slow, and they lack innovative companies that would drive their markets higher.

World economies are now more interconnected than ever. What scenario is there that we would see the US economy and markets struggle while Europe and other international developed markets thrived? I cannot think of one. Maybe someone else can.

With all of that said, I cannot predict the future, so I do have some exposure, 10%, to international developed markets and about 8% to emerging markets. But I cannot agree with those who say you put 40% of your portfolio into foreign markets. Maybe in the past, when economies were more isolated, there was a chance Europe would outperform compared to the US, but I can't see it now.

This ^ is what I struggle with when it comes to international stocks. These developed economies outside of the US are dumpster fires and I see no light at the end of the tunnel for them. I can see a reason to target emerging countries with demographics and growth still happening. I still am holding on to my international stocks that I purchased, but my new money goes to either US stocks or US treasury bonds because it is so simple and well diversified

abuss368 · Post by **abuss368** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:29 am

At the end of the day I fall back on GM, Amgen, Wells Fargo, Apple compared to Nissan, Pfizer, Barclays, and Samsung for example.

My preference is to own the haystack.

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:37 am

robertmcd wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:26 am
atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 am We can debate this issue for all eternity. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. People will argue that international someday will shine once again.

And that may be, but I am more interested in emerging markets rather than international developed. I have not seen any compelling reason to invest there. Europe's economy has been stagnant for a decade. Their population is aging and growth is slow, and they lack innovative companies that would drive their markets higher.

World economies are now more interconnected than ever. What scenario is there that we would see the US economy and markets struggle while Europe and other international developed markets thrived? I cannot think of one. Maybe someone else can.

With all of that said, I cannot predict the future, so I do have some exposure, 10%, to international developed markets and about 8% to emerging markets. But I cannot agree with those who say you put 40% of your portfolio into foreign markets. Maybe in the past, when economies were more isolated, there was a chance Europe would outperform compared to the US, but I can't see it now.
This ^ is what I struggle with when it comes to international stocks. These developed economies outside of the US are dumpster fires and I see no light at the end of the tunnel for them. I can see a reason to target emerging countries with demographics and growth still happening. I still am holding on to my international stocks that I purchased, but my new money goes to either US stocks or US treasury bonds because it is so simple and well diversified

You're right if we're talking about which economies would do better. However, stock market is a different story. The U.S. economy is good right now, but it's not a good time to buy. Instead, it's a good time to cash in your return from U.S. stocks. The Europe economy has been bad in the past decade and people don't like buying those stocks. It's actually a good time to buy when things are looking bad. This kind of backward logic is tough to comprehend, much less to execute. That's why a 3-Fund portfolio / LifeStrategy / Target Date fund is better suited for many people. The rebalancing happens behind the scene and you don't need to struggle with this logic.

robertmcd · Post by **robertmcd** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:46 am

H-Town wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:37 am
robertmcd wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:26 am
atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 am We can debate this issue for all eternity. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. People will argue that international someday will shine once again.

And that may be, but I am more interested in emerging markets rather than international developed. I have not seen any compelling reason to invest there. Europe's economy has been stagnant for a decade. Their population is aging and growth is slow, and they lack innovative companies that would drive their markets higher.

World economies are now more interconnected than ever. What scenario is there that we would see the US economy and markets struggle while Europe and other international developed markets thrived? I cannot think of one. Maybe someone else can.

With all of that said, I cannot predict the future, so I do have some exposure, 10%, to international developed markets and about 8% to emerging markets. But I cannot agree with those who say you put 40% of your portfolio into foreign markets. Maybe in the past, when economies were more isolated, there was a chance Europe would outperform compared to the US, but I can't see it now.
This ^ is what I struggle with when it comes to international stocks. These developed economies outside of the US are dumpster fires and I see no light at the end of the tunnel for them. I can see a reason to target emerging countries with demographics and growth still happening. I still am holding on to my international stocks that I purchased, but my new money goes to either US stocks or US treasury bonds because it is so simple and well diversified
You're right if we're talking about which economies would do better. However, stock market is a different story. The U.S. economy is good right now, but it's not a good time to buy. Instead, it's a good time to cash in your return from U.S. stocks. The Europe economy has been bad in the past decade and people don't like buying those stocks. It's actually a good time to buy when things are looking bad. This kind of backward logic is tough to comprehend, much less to execute. That's why a 3-Fund portfolio / LifeStrategy / Target Date fund is better suited for many people. The rebalancing happens behind the scene and you don't need to struggle with this logic.

The main reason I don't like it was mainly due to the period from Jan 2018 to November 2018, when the Fed was raising rates and tightening. They were not worried that people were losing money in bonds because stocks kept going up, but it was not the same story in international stocks. If I had owned just US stocks I could have been buying long term treasuries to rebalance since I would not have been losing money in my equities position. It is this bias towards US asset classes with regards to monetary policy, and the fact that I spend in US dollars, that makes me think a solely US stocks/US treasuries position is the way to minimize regret.

goblue100 · Post by **goblue100** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:48 pm

tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...

It's usually darkest before the dawn. If you like to sell low and buy high, sell international and buy US. Personally, I like bargains. Eventually valuations will return to a more normal balance, IMHO.

ronno2018 · Post by **ronno2018** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:47 pm

You should stay in it long term. The diversity is valuable. I will stick with an asset allocation of 19.2% international stocks (mostly VEU) and 4.2% international bonds (BNDX). Good luck!

vineviz · Post by **vineviz** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:55 pm

Munir wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:56 am
owenmia wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:11 am
Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.
What is your timeline, just out of curiosity?
5-8 years.

Does this mean you are 80 to 85 years old, or that you are 5-8 years from retirement?

vineviz · Post by **vineviz** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:00 pm

atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 am I have not seen any compelling reason to invest there.

If history is any guide, it is precisely during periods in which people "don't see any compelling reason to invest" that the best investment opportunity is present.

FUD is the prudent investor's best friend.

Silence Dogood · Post by **Silence Dogood** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:28 pm

atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:14 amBut I cannot agree with those who say you put 40% of your portfolio into foreign markets.

To be clear, the Vanguard Target Retirement and LifeStrategy funds have 40% of the equity allocation invested in Total International.

Silence Dogood · Post by **Silence Dogood** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:31 pm

abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:29 am My preference is to own the haystack.

Which one?

Munir · Post by **Munir** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:41 pm

vineviz wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:55 pm
Munir wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:56 am
owenmia wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:11 am
Munir wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
tomjonesrocks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm Like many, I have an international fund in my portfolio for diversification. Unfortunately, it seems like this play does nothing but consistently bring the rest of my portfolio down.

What are your thoughts on VTIAX? After recent event it's pretty much given back all gains for the year and it seems like it's going to be continually hit in this climate. I just don't see how it's got any chance at sustained momentum.

Opinions appreciated - very frustrated owner of this fund...
I sold it today- for the same reasons you stated. I know all the rational reasons for international diversification but I am tired of seeing it going down and my timeline is not long. Should not have purchased it in the first place but was following the advice of the Vanguard advisers which is probably correct for those with longer timelines. Very un-Boglehead action on my part- Mea Culpa.
What is your timeline, just out of curiosity?
5-8 years.
Does this mean you are 80 to 85 years old, or that you are 5-8 years from retirement?

Sorry for not being clear. I will be 82 years old tomorrow, and I have health issues.

abuss368 · Post by **abuss368** » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:35 pm

Silence Dogood wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:31 pm
abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:29 am My preference is to own the haystack.
Which one?

The entire haystack - US and International.

Stay the course and tune out the noise!