Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

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dreamjob9
Posts: 125
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 3:13 pm

Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

Post by dreamjob9 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:00 pm

I debated if I was going to update this... I decided to go ahead.

Here is the original post:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=239474

Quick recap:
Two years ago, I began investing a large portion of our portfolio in a single stock (Redfin). I have since accumulated 25,052 shares in total. My cost basis is currently minimally positive. This represents 25% of our portfolio. Over half (17k shares) are in Roth Ira's. I own no other individual stocks and our remaining money is in short term cash (emergency) and low cost index funds. I will not buy or sell any more shares or own any other individual stocks. I will hold it for 11 and 1/2 more years. I will sell on my 50th birthday.

Age: 38 M & 36 W w/ Family
Wife is 100% onboard
Debt: Only very manageable mortgage


Experience:
It has been a BUMPY rode & volatility is real. But, during down times - I keep coming back to the singular point... I believe they ultimately revolutionize real estate in the consumers favor & I think that ultimately makes them win. Over time, I've become much more numb to the volatility. I have enjoyed learning about the economics of the business & the competitive landscape of technology and real estate.

I'll update again in a few years.

Best,
Dreamjob9

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arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 4260
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:16 pm

thanks for keeping us updated. how has the stock performance compared to the total market's performance over the same time period?

if it's worth anything, my friend just sold his house (I had asked bogleheads some questions about the process and they were very helpful) but didn't use redfin to do so. used the old fashioned method. he was pleased with the outcome. I should probably go back and give my own update to that post.
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

rascott
Posts: 491
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

Post by rascott » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:31 pm

dreamjob9 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:00 pm
I debated if I was going to update this... I decided to go ahead.

Here is the original post:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=239474

Quick recap:
Two years ago, I began investing a large portion of our portfolio in a single stock (Redfin). I have since accumulated 25,052 shares in total. My cost basis is currently minimally positive. This represents 25% of our portfolio. Over half (17k shares) are in Roth Ira's. I own no other individual stocks and our remaining money is in short term cash (emergency) and low cost index funds. I will not buy or sell any more shares or own any other individual stocks. I will hold it for 11 and 1/2 more years. I will sell on my 50th birthday.

Age: 38 M & 36 W w/ Family
Wife is 100% onboard
Debt: Only very manageable mortgage


Experience:
It has been a BUMPY rode & volatility is real. But, during down times - I keep coming back to the singular point... I believe they ultimately revolutionize real estate in the consumers favor & I think that ultimately makes them win. Over time, I've become much more numb to the volatility. I have enjoyed learning about the economics of the business & the competitive landscape of technology and real estate.

I'll update again in a few years.

Best,
Dreamjob9

I've been in the RE game for a long while. I see no advantages that Redfin has over anyone else in the business.

They offer lower commissions? That's not a new thing.

All RE commissions are negotiable if you ask/shop around....and they have been for a very long time. Commission rebates aren't uncommon for buyers either. So what exactly is their secret sauce? This stock has been a dog.... down 30% since its IPO, while the market is up 9%

Sorry.

mchampse
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:45 am

Re: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

Post by mchampse » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:45 pm

Everyone knew that social media would be huge. However, the investors in Friendster, MySpace, etc. didn’t reap the rewards.

The current market cap of Redfin is 1.6B and you have about half million in the stock. How high do you think the market cap will go? 10x? 20x? 50x? If it goes up 50x, you’ll have $25M. What are you going to do with the money? You can’t take it with you. I would say this..ask yourself how high you think it will go and how much money you would need for financial freedom. Take money you want and divide by how high you think it will go. You’ll be left with how much of the stock you should own now. I’d suggest selling the remainder and putting into index funds.

petulant
Posts: 618
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:09 pm

Re: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

Post by petulant » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:50 pm

I think zillow would be a better play on revolutionizing real estate, and it's still iffy whether it's profitable.

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