Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

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Topic Author
Johnbnice
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Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Johnbnice » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm

Hi all,

After reading a few investment books I started investing a few years ago in the target date index fund with vanguard. I took out the money because something came up and I’m ready to start investing again.

I was going to buy the total stock fund VTSAX. My question is, I know the market is currently high and up now. Should I wait for the next dip because I think a correction may occur soon, or should I just start tomorrow?

Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!

NxNW
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by NxNW » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:54 pm

Yes. Determine your asset allocation and proceed.

jbranx
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by jbranx » Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:17 am

Welcome to the forum! If you haven't had a chance to check out the Wiki here, start with this link on the Boglehead's philosophy: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy. One section there is on never trying to time the market. Just decide on your risk tolerance and allocation and control risk that way. It may be a good idea to buy only when the stock market is having a "sale" or correction, but that is when most investors tend to hide under the bed. Control your allocation and you won't have to worry too much about controlling your emotions.

You have a lot more "human capital" in that teaching position than you will likely have in the stock/bond markets for quite some time, so you can afford a high exposure to risk assets. Write down a good investment policy statement, tape it to the fridge and a copy on your car visor--index card size will work--and read it every time you have doubts about the markets. (The Wiki will also tell you how to adopt that IPS https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement ).

A lot of members will be along shortly with more useful suggestions. (That 7% return is pretty awesome; get all you can. There's certainly nothing wrong with a target date fund or a Lifestrategy fund at Vanguard).

ohai
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by ohai » Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:35 am

Do these "job funds" give you 7% guaranteed return? If so, and if these are tax deferred, you could even get away with putting all your savings in those funds, or at least the maximum that is allowed. These benefits are the reason why all the states are going bankrupt. So, it stands to reason that, on average, the promised return is higher than what can reasonably be expected in the market.

Other than that, don't wait - just invest now. The market is at all time highs. By definition, that means you would have made money even if you bought at any of the previous highs.

TheOscarGuy
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by TheOscarGuy » Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:22 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
Hi all,

After reading a few investment books I started investing a few years ago in the target date index fund with vanguard. I took out the money because something came up and I’m ready to start investing again.

I was going to buy the total stock fund VTSAX. My question is, I know the market is currently high and up now. Should I wait for the next dip because I think a correction may occur soon, or should I just start tomorrow?

Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!
How likely are you to take out money if you start investing in VTSAX today? Say in next 5 years? Also, is that all you will be investing in or are there any different funds available to you. You should read about asset allocation from wiki pages on this website. Some folks like to have diversity with international and fixed income in addition to total stock market.

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Rick Ferri
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:31 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
I’m 31 years old, a teacher.
Today's market will look cheap when your 65.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

retiredjg
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by retiredjg » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:47 am

First, establish an emergency fund in case "something comes up". Then start investing the next day. The "market high" is irrelevant. Ignore the market and invest money when you have it.

tibbitts
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by tibbitts » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:53 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
Hi all,

After reading a few investment books I started investing a few years ago in the target date index fund with vanguard. I took out the money because something came up and I’m ready to start investing again.

I was going to buy the total stock fund VTSAX. My question is, I know the market is currently high and up now. Should I wait for the next dip because I think a correction may occur soon, or should I just start tomorrow?

Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!
I'm assuming you're in NY which is the only fund I've heard of with essentially a 7% stable value guaranteed return. I'd put 100% of my contributions into it, regardless of what the equity market is doing.

Topic Author
Johnbnice
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Johnbnice » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:51 am

Thank you all for the responses.

Yes I am in NY, and it is a 7% guaranteed return. It is tax deferred (until you withdraw the money when you retire).

I've also read the wikipages. 10% of my checks are going to this 7% return fund, I wanted to diversify though and have money available to take out before retirement if needed (and I honestly don't plan to stay as a teacher forever).

My plan was to do VTSAX instead of the Lifestrategy funds. And I know I can't time the market, and someone said it will be higher at 65 than now, but I remember in the winter when it dropped, and I'm pretty sure a correction is coming, which is why I didn't know if I should just hold off for a bit, since I'm already investing already in my jobs fund, wait on the sidelines until a correction occurs and then put my money into VTSAX.

retiredjg
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by retiredjg » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:55 am

There are people who have been waiting for years for the market to go down so they can buy. They have missed a great runnup in the market. Don't do that.

Flyer24
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Flyer24 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:00 am

You have already missed out on several years of run up. What if the market continues to grow? Don’t try to time the market. Even if it drops, you have so many years left for it to change. I remember taking some cash out when the Dow was around 17K thinking it would drop soon (before I became a boglehead). Look where it is now. I regret not staying in the market then. Thankfully, it wasn’t a large amount.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:06 am

Why are you so sure a correction is coming? Stop reading financial news, it’s meant to scare you to get views. If the pros overall thought the market was going down then it would already be down.

Topic Author
Johnbnice
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Johnbnice » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:09 am

Thank you, perhaps I will buy VTSAX today!

retiredjg
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by retiredjg » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:10 am

In a Roth IRA?

wolf359
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by wolf359 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:34 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!
You're investing from your paycheck, so you're going to be investing similar sums of money at regular intervals over a long period of time.

If you need the money in the next 5 years, you shouldn't invest it. But you're 31, so you probably intend to invest for years, if not decades.

If you start now, and the market goes up, you'll be happy because you'll see positive results.

But what you actually want to do is to start now and have the market drop. The reason is that the ideal time to start indexing is if you expect an extended downturn, in which the market recovers before you need the money. In fact, you not only should EXPECT the market to drop in your investing career, you should WANT it to drop. The greater the drop, the lower the price that you pay to buy shares. A drop at the start of your investing career is actually a gift. Your portfolio won't actually drop in value very much (because you don't yet have much invested). In fact, your additional investments will actually help keep your portfolio balance stable, because initially your contributions will exceed your losses. When you complete the business cycle and the market is making new highs again, your portfolio will be pretty healthy.

Eventually, your balance will be so large that your gains or losses in a single year may exceed your salary. By the time that occurs, you should be accustomed to large moves, will have the experience to know that markets will eventually recover, and you will have the confidence to weather those turbulent times. (I used that a milestone. When your investment dollars are working for you, it's almost like bringing in an additional salary.)

Edit: As a teacher, you should check out blogs and books written by other teachers who have already completed the path. They may be able to give you perspective as well as tools you may have at your disposal. Try https://www.millionaireeducator.com/ (Ed Mills, who is/was a teacher in Georgia) and https://andrewhallam.com/ (who wrote the book "The Millionaire Teacher").

Alex GR
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Alex GR » Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:07 am

Hi John,
I've seen this question asked on this forum many times and I've also asked myself this question multiple times before adding funds to the portfolio.
The answer is always "invest now" and *sometimes* do DCA. I've never seen any reputable posters say "yes, wait for the market to crash and then invest".
I've only recently began to understand why the best approach is "invest now" even though it may seem counterintuitive at the peak of the market.
Suppose you invest whatever you have in lump sum. If you are unlucky, the market may behave like on Sep. 29th, 2008 and your portfolio value goes down from there. However a more likely scenario that it will go up before it goes down.
I think this is your problem:
Johnbnice wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:51 am
I'm pretty sure a correction is coming, which is why I didn't know if I should just hold off for a bit
But what if it isn't? I mean we know it will happen at some point but we don't know when. What if it's coming 6 years from now? On an aggressive portfolio, you could double the value before it crashes. Example: $300k turns into $630k in 6 years @8% ROI and annual contributions of $20k/Yr. Then the market crashes, your portfolio is down 20% but it's 20% off of its value at that time. So you're down to ~500k which is still way more than what you've put in. I am oversimplifying but I believe this is what experts mean when they say invest now. With a caveat that if it does crash right after you invest, you need to be disciplined enough to keep buying stocks "on sale" to maintain your position even though everybody is screaming bloody murder :P
Last edited by Alex GR on Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

retiredjg
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by retiredjg » Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:11 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
My question is, I know the market is currently high and up now. Should I wait for the next dip because I think a correction may occur soon, or should I just start tomorrow?
A market correction, or worse...an extended downturn, is ALWAYS coming. Invest your money in such a way as to be comfortable when that happens.

Topic Author
Johnbnice
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Johnbnice » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:21 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:34 am
Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!
You're investing from your paycheck, so you're going to be investing similar sums of money at regular intervals over a long period of time.

If you need the money in the next 5 years, you shouldn't invest it. But you're 31, so you probably intend to invest for years, if not decades.

If you start now, and the market goes up, you'll be happy because you'll see positive results.

But what you actually want to do is to start now and have the market drop. The reason is that the ideal time to start indexing is if you expect an extended downturn, in which the market recovers before you need the money. In fact, you not only should EXPECT the market to drop in your investing career, you should WANT it to drop. The greater the drop, the lower the price that you pay to buy shares. A drop at the start of your investing career is actually a gift. Your portfolio won't actually drop in value very much (because you don't yet have much invested). In fact, your additional investments will actually help keep your portfolio balance stable, because initially your contributions will exceed your losses. When you complete the business cycle and the market is making new highs again, your portfolio will be pretty healthy.

Eventually, your balance will be so large that your gains or losses in a single year may exceed your salary. By the time that occurs, you should be accustomed to large moves, will have the experience to know that markets will eventually recover, and you will have the confidence to weather those turbulent times. (I used that a milestone. When your investment dollars are working for you, it's almost like bringing in an additional salary.)

Edit: As a teacher, you should check out blogs and books written by other teachers who have already completed the path. They may be able to give you perspective as well as tools you may have at your disposal. Try https://www.millionaireeducator.com/ (Ed Mills, who is/was a teacher in Georgia) and https://andrewhallam.com/ (who wrote the book "The Millionaire Teacher").
Thanks, I may take it out before 5 years though, as I plan to eventually buy an apartment. I currently live at home with my parents, so I am not paying rent, eventually I plan to move out.

And I actually did read the Millionaire Teacher.. The only contradicting advice I got in there was the age in bonds thing and the rest in stocks. Upon more research I've been told its best to just stick with a Total Stock Market Stock fund only and not worry about the bonds, which is why I was going to just buy the VTSAX (previously I had a target date fund which had pretty much an allocation of 70/30 stocks to bonds.

tibbitts
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by tibbitts » Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:54 pm

Johnbnice wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:51 am
Thank you all for the responses.

Yes I am in NY, and it is a 7% guaranteed return. It is tax deferred (until you withdraw the money when you retire).

I've also read the wikipages. 10% of my checks are going to this 7% return fund, I wanted to diversify though and have money available to take out before retirement if needed (and I honestly don't plan to stay as a teacher forever).

My plan was to do VTSAX instead of the Lifestrategy funds. And I know I can't time the market, and someone said it will be higher at 65 than now, but I remember in the winter when it dropped, and I'm pretty sure a correction is coming, which is why I didn't know if I should just hold off for a bit, since I'm already investing already in my jobs fund, wait on the sidelines until a correction occurs and then put my money into VTSAX.
If you want to diversify, you should buy international too, and depending on how you measure valuation you might feel better about investing in that.

sf_tech_saver
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by sf_tech_saver » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:04 pm

'Every' casual investor on here thinks a correction is coming. Its constant.

Whenever I read these posts, it makes me want to buy VTI even faster if I could.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”-- Buffet
VTI is a modern marvel

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mrspock
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by mrspock » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:47 pm

Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
Hi all,

After reading a few investment books I started investing a few years ago in the target date index fund with vanguard. I took out the money because something came up and I’m ready to start investing again.

I was going to buy the total stock fund VTSAX. My question is, I know the market is currently high and up now. Should I wait for the next dip because I think a correction may occur soon, or should I just start tomorrow?

Some background. I’m 31 years old, a teacher, and I currently only invest 10 percent on my check into my jobs fund which gives a 7 percent return, and I’m looking to expand my investing .
Thanks!
I’ll reiterate what others have said. At 31... yes, determine what your AA is, write it down in your IPS and invest accordingly on that day forward. You can readjust your IPS from time to time at key life checkpoints (new job, raises, kids, home purchase), but otherwise execute unwaveringly.

I started indexing at the “market peak” ... back in 2015. The doom and gloom crowd was around then too, I ignored these folks, followed the advice on here and haven’t been sorry. These are very smart folks, some of which have been doing this before I had my first job... some before I even knew how to multiply!

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whodidntante
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by whodidntante » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:51 pm

I have almost all of my life savings in equities. Should I sell NOW in current market? Well, I'm not gonna. So why would I tell you to avoid buying for a smaller amount than I currently have at risk?

If there is a correction, there will be plenty of cheap stocks lying around. You can buy more then.

Don't overthink it. It's always risky. Buy anyway.

jello_nailer
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by jello_nailer » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:49 am

Time in the market is the important component. In simple terms the only way you can benefit from "time" is to be "in".

Maybe others can comment but it seems that what really helps is as time goes buy and you see that "total gain" calculation on your account summary get larger the fear diminishes. As an example on some long term buys when you see GAIN +348% or if you are fortunate and bought AAPL many years ago and you see +883% that seems to inoculate you somewhat to that fear and you get confident. Can't hurt me.

Add a dose of understand AA and you will eventually sleep well at night. Just my experience.

BlueCable
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by BlueCable » Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:35 am

Johnbnice wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:51 am


Yes I am in NY, and it is a 7% guaranteed return. It is tax deferred (until you withdraw the money when you retire).

Who provides the guarantee? Can you contribute more than 10%?

lostdog
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by lostdog » Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:59 am

Time in the market is better than timing the market.

Bacchus01
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by Bacchus01 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:02 am

Yes

Yes you should

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BL
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by BL » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:26 am

Investing here generally means for retirement, not for needs of less than 5 years. You should be saving in CDs, money market or savings accounts that yield over 2% (now), but which are either guaranteed by FDIC (banks), NCUA (credit unions) or perhaps uninsured MM at Vanguard (Prime, treasury, or federal). At the most, Total Bond Market or intermediate bonds or treasuries might lose just a few %, but stocks up to 50%.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:06 pm

BlueCable wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:35 am
Johnbnice wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:51 am


Yes I am in NY, and it is a 7% guaranteed return. It is tax deferred (until you withdraw the money when you retire).

Who provides the guarantee? Can you contribute more than 10%?
I think he's talking about this:

https://www.trsnyc.org/memberportal/Inv ... ReturnFund
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

bck63
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by bck63 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:20 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:31 am
Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
I’m 31 years old, a teacher.
Today's market will look cheap when your 65.

Rick Ferri
I'm 55. Hoping the same goes for ten years from now.

esteen
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by esteen » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:14 pm

retiredjg wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:47 am
First, establish an emergency fund in case "something comes up". Then start investing the next day. The "market high" is irrelevant. Ignore the market and invest money when you have it.
+1

02nz
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by 02nz » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:30 pm

+1 on the advice about establishing an emergency fund. As for saving for a buying a home - this is where a Roth IRA has a big advantage, as you can withdraw the contributions (but not growth) at any time, tax- and penalty-free. Of course, keeping that money growing tax-free is even better, but if the choice is between putting $6K a year into a Roth IRA vs. putting the same money into a taxable account (not 403b and not IRA), the Roth IRA wins out every time.

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aspirit
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by aspirit » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:02 pm

A31YO male teacher, meet bob:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

Im surprised it was not offered up sooner!
:P slackers! :P

7% fixed is outstanding as a fixed income(BOND), not variable(STOCK), income option.
Stay home and accumulate funds,..& stay focused.
bck63 wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:20 pm
Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:31 am
Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
I’m 31 years old, a teacher.
Today's market will look cheap when your 65.

Rick Ferri



I'm 55. Hoping the same goes for ten years from now.
Thats unlikely, 34 yrs vs 10yrs is the time varying metric, as you realize I'm sure.
10yrs is sometime even an unadvised period and speculative for stocks.
Good luck!
Time & tides wait for no one. A man has to know his limitations. | "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" | — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild ~

BuckyBadger
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by BuckyBadger » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:36 am

Make sure you have the right attitude about investing for your retirement as well. Investments aren't things you "take out" on a whim. You should invest money that you're going to leave alone for a long time.

The fact that you already took out all your investments for an unspecified reason and are planning on doing it again in the near future is very concerning.

You need a plan that involves long term investing for your retirement and short term savings for your planned expenses.

Please don't underestimate this.

260chrisb
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Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Post by 260chrisb » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:12 am

Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:31 am
Johnbnice wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:06 pm
I’m 31 years old, a teacher.
Today's market will look cheap when your 65.

Rick Ferri
You know this is stellar advise when you get right down to it. I started at the same age knowing nothing aside from the fact that I knew I had a 401K available to me for the first time and knew it was a good idea to participate. I often wonder if we know too much as we get older and question if it's a good time to invest based on the current market. Was it a good time to invest in the '90s and if not what's the difference. What about the 2000s? Seems to have worked out okay.

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