I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

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blackcoffeegasoline
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I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

I'm new and you guys have been such a help.
I'm sure this has a simple answer but I swear I cannot find it anywhere.

I'm building a lazy portfolio at Schwab (but I'm sure this is same at Vanguard) one of the funds recommended is the SCHE.

I'm starting with 90/10 split between US and International (all etfs)
US is SCHB
International is SCHE, SCHF, SCHC (I'm using the amazing excel Schwab eft calculator a bogelhead created! thanks)

MY QUESTION:
I cannot understand how the emerging markets is worth holding though, or better yet, I'm clearly missing something when looking at the charts on Schwab, Morningstar and Yahoo finance.

For example:

If I bought one share of SCHE (or 1000) on Jan 15 2010 (earliest date) the stock was at 24.92
And held it for nine years I would have sold it for 24.54
(just an example-- there are many dates to pick)

That's nine years for a loss, right? Or even at it's highest it was only minuscule. So what's the point? Seems to buy and hold for almost a decade and end up holding something worth the same is pointless.

There are some months it's a couple of dollars more and some it's less but it seems to stay stagnant or at least that's all I understand.

I look at SCHB and I see that if I hold and wait, ten years or fifteen there is a pay off to patience.

The thing is: I know I'm wrong. But I can't figure out what I'm missing. With a lot of stocks, efts, I look at the historical record and see a point to holding and waiting upwards of ten years but what about these etfs that show almost the same price for the stock ten years ago, eight years ago, six, five, three and today? Aside from dividends isn't profit from selling the stock for much more than we paid for it?

If I was looking to retire and had a percentage of my portfolio in SCHE (or others-- SCHZ, SCHF), I would sell for almost what I paid (many of them less depending on the month).

I know you can't base future performance by the past, but as I said I know I'm looking to purchase, and hold, but not end up with the same that I started with only ten years gone.

Sorry for my ignorance. I'm sure there is a simple answer.
dbr
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by dbr »

The simple answer is that any particular portfolio of stocks can have low returns for an extended period of time, meaning a decade or even decades. That is what risk means. Someone may have some good illustrations of that somewhere.
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blackcoffeegasoline
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

I know what risk is, and I know "some" efts have low return... . I'm not looking at wild risky efts, I'm asking about the basic boring index funds advised here for the 3-fund portfolio via the Schwab version--

Is the answer really-- buy and hold for ten years and what you get (in the Schwab international) will be no better (sometimes worse) than a lock box in under your mattress.

No offense but does anyone have a more detailed answer? I can't imagine this is it.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

OP, it happens. Look up returns in Japan if you want to see something worrying. It could happen in the US. That risk is why some of us prefer a World investment, and some others figure that since we will retire in the USA, we should is a US based index.

Btw, it’s ETF (Exchange Traded Funds).
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
retiredjg
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by retiredjg »

Take a look at this table.

https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... e-2019.pdf

You will see that the Emerging Markets (orange) have been the best performers a number of years in the time period shown. They are also among the lower performers a number of times. So maybe if you wanted to leave them out, that would be OK...if you are willing to forego the good times and bad times both.

But, if you ever want to make money on Emerging Markets, you must hold Emerging Markets before they have a good year. If you buy an asset class after it has a good year, you are much ore likely to lose money because you will be paying higher prices and there is no guarantee that there will be other good years right away. You may buy into Emerging Markets right before they have a terrible year (or series of years).

This all goes back to whatever your philosophy of holding total markets happens to be. If you believe in holding the total market, you need to hold all aspects of it including things that are not star performers right now.

If you don't buy into the total markets philosophy, that could be OK as long as you don't later try to buy into the parts you left out earlier when those parts start having a good year.

Also, understand if you leave out Emerging Markets, you are leaving out some very big economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China. When their time comes to shine, you won't get any of the goodies.
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blackcoffeegasoline
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

Okay, so I'm not missing anything. If the stock price is 24.00 in 2000 and 24.01 in 2020 and you planned to buy and hold for twenty years and retire in 2021 that was just a bet that didn't pay off.

I'm just starting now and am willing to hold for min ten years, up to 15-20 years before I will need.

Thanks so much for the insight. I really thought there must be some other way people are pushing the 3 fund and all this talk about retiring off of the compound interest when it seems like a good percentage isn't doing much of anything at all (right now and for the last decade)
blackholescion
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackholescion »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 9:25 am Thanks so much for the insight. I really thought there must be some other way people are pushing the 3 fund and all this talk about retiring off of the compound interest when it seems like a good percentage isn't doing much of anything at all (right now and for the last decade)
The key isn’t what it did. The key is what you think it’s going to do. If you think the last 10 years are how the next 10 will go, then don’t invest in it. Put the money in a US fund. If you think powers like China and India, which are heavily on the rise, will do well in the next 20 years, then expose yourself to those markets.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

OP, don’t forget dividends and capital gains that the fund had (ie, not cap gains from you selling).

The best way to gauge how lucrative a fund HAS been is to look at the chart showing the value of $10k over the appropriate time frame.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... ance/vemax

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3gbjmvqs99s52 ... .jpeg?dl=0
Last edited by TomatoTomahto on Sat May 18, 2019 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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JoMoney
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by JoMoney »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 8:36 am...
I know you can't base future performance by the past, but as I said I know I'm looking to purchase, and hold, but not end up with the same that I started with only ten years gone...
Some people believe their experience and information on EM stocks gives them a educated guess on the probabilities of higher performance, and are willing to allocate some amount to it knowing full well that it could go either way, but their experience leads them to believe the odds favor something better.
As far as I can tell, whether or not Emerging Markets will outperform over some future time period is just about unknowable.
What I can tell you is: EM doesn't pass the sleep-well-at-night test for me, that EM are considerably riskier that developed markets, studies have shown that investors are less willing/able to "stay the course" with riskier assets.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by BolderBoy »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 8:36 am I'm building a lazy portfolio at Schwab (but I'm sure this is same at Vanguard) one of the funds recommended is the SCHE.
I don't know what the symbols mean, but are you looking for something like this:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-f ... head-style
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by ruralavalon »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 8:36 am I'm new and you guys have been such a help.
I'm sure this has a simple answer but I swear I cannot find it anywhere.

I'm building a lazy portfolio at Schwab (but I'm sure this is same at Vanguard) one of the funds recommended is the SCHE.

I'm starting with 90/10 split between US and International (all etfs)
US is SCHB
International is SCHE, SCHF, SCHC (I'm using the amazing excel Schwab eft calculator a bogelhead created! thanks)

MY QUESTION:
I cannot understand how the emerging markets is worth holding though, or better yet, I'm clearly missing something when looking at the charts on Schwab, Morningstar and Yahoo finance.

For example:

If I bought one share of SCHE (or 1000) on Jan 15 2010 (earliest date) the stock was at 24.92
And held it for nine years I would have sold it for 24.54
(just an example-- there are many dates to pick)
[emphasis added]

That's nine years for a loss, right? Or even at it's highest it was only minuscule. So what's the point? Seems to buy and hold for almost a decade and end up holding something worth the same is pointless.

There are some months it's a couple of dollars more and some it's less but it seems to stay stagnant or at least that's all I understand.

I look at SCHB and I see that if I hold and wait, ten years or fifteen there is a pay off to patience.

The thing is: I know I'm wrong. But I can't figure out what I'm missing. With a lot of stocks, efts, I look at the historical record and see a point to holding and waiting upwards of ten years but what about these etfs that show almost the same price for the stock ten years ago, eight years ago, six, five, three and today? Aside from dividends isn't profit from selling the stock for much more than we paid for it?

If I was looking to retire and had a percentage of my portfolio in SCHE (or others-- SCHZ, SCHF), I would sell for almost what I paid (many of them less depending on the month).

I know you can't base future performance by the past, but as I said I know I'm looking to purchase, and hold, but not end up with the same that I started with only ten years gone.

Sorry for my ignorance. I'm sure there is a simple answer.
blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 9:11 am I know what risk is, and I know "some" efts have low return... . I'm not looking at wild risky efts, I'm asking about the basic boring index funds advised here for the 3-fund portfolio via the Schwab version--

Is the answer really-- buy and hold for ten years and what you get (in the Schwab international) will be no better (sometimes worse) than a lock box in under your mattress [emphasis added].

No offense but does anyone have a more detailed answer? I can't imagine this is it.
blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 9:25 am Okay, so I'm not missing anything. If the stock price is 24.00 in 2000 and 24.01 in 2020 and you planned to buy and hold for twenty years and retire in 2021 that was just a bet that didn't pay off [emphasis added].

I'm just starting now and am willing to hold for min ten years, up to 15-20 years before I will need.

Thanks so much for the insight. I really thought there must be some other way people are pushing the 3 fund and all this talk about retiring off of the compound interest when it seems like a good percentage isn't doing much of anything at all (right now and for the last decade)
You are missing two important points.

1) Nine years (Jan.15, 2010 to date) is short-term. Invest for the long-term.

2) You only looked at share price, you didn't consider the dividends paid. Look instead at total return (which includes both share price and dividends.) Including dividends over the last 10 years emerging markets yielded a total return of 100%, and an initial investment of $10,000 turned into $20,000. The annual average return was 7.24%. Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VEMAX), "Price and performance tab.

(I will try to add some longer-term numbers later.)
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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blackcoffeegasoline
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

Thank you but because of (great advice from this forum) I have to buy into efts not mutual funds (I work and reside abroad right now). There is no single eft for the emerging market for Schwab so I have to use a combination of three (SCHE, SCHC, and SCHF).

But my question wasn't about the eft SCHE per se. I was mainly using SCHE as an example.

My question is the same for all EFTs that have relatively the same price ten years ago as they do today... and that question is: Is it only if the stock price goes up (or if there is a dividend payment) that I make money.

Again if a share in an index etf (or index mutual fund) costs 24.00 in 2000 and in 2020 it sells for 24.01 then I've lost money, right?

(leaving aside the minor and rare cap gains and rare div pay outs...unless I'm clueless here too)

I think @TomatoTomahto possibly illustrates (or further confuses?) my question in his link to the growth of 10000 of VEMAX
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... ance/vemax

10000 USD on April of 09 buys me about 330 shares at a price of 26.31
Ten years of buy and hold the price of a single share is 36.03
around a 10.00 difference per share.
So if I bought into VEMAX in 2009 I would own 380 shares

in 2019 380 shares are worth 36.03 or 13691
That's a profit of almost 4k
However on the link above it states that this original 10K would be worth almost 20K

I was asking about EFTs not Mutual Funds but the question should still be the same.
What am I missing here. Where is my math wrong or where did this extra 6k come from?
(if it's dividends or capital gains it wouldn't matter I don't think the Etfs above (SCHE, SCHF, SCHC gain any real div)
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by Flyer24 »

You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment.
Last edited by Flyer24 on Sat May 18, 2019 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

I don’t really follow EM, but the rule of thumb that I use for money thrown off in my taxable account (for tax planning purposes) is 2%. 2% compounded for years adds up. I don’t know what the NAV have done over the years; gun to my head I couldn’t tell you.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by unclescrooge »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 9:25 am Okay, so I'm not missing anything. If the stock price is 24.00 in 2000 and 24.01 in 2020 and you planned to buy and hold for twenty years and retire in 2021 that was just a bet that didn't pay off.

I'm just starting now and am willing to hold for min ten years, up to 15-20 years before I will need.

Thanks so much for the insight. I really thought there must be some other way people are pushing the 3 fund and all this talk about retiring off of the compound interest when it seems like a good percentage isn't doing much of anything at all (right now and for the last decade)
No, that's it.

You buy 3 different funds that go up and down at different rates and at different times and rebalance once a year or two.

Provides enough return without any work.

If you willing to work harder, there is a chance you may get slightly better return. But this involves increases your asset classes, tilting towards factors, and more complex rebalancing. And there is no guarantee it will outperform in your time frame.

I'm an extremely overweight EM, especially China. My Chinese ETF is up 25% this year. I've rebalanced my portfolio twice this year. I'm comfortable with the extra work and satisfied with my returns. It is not for most people.
Last edited by unclescrooge on Sat May 18, 2019 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by Wiggums »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:22 am I don’t really follow EM, but the rule of thumb that I use for money thrown off in my taxable account (for tax planning purposes) is 2%. 2% compounded for years adds up. I don’t know what the NAV have done over the years; gun to my head I couldn’t tell you.
I’m in your camp. I had a fund for 18 years and I never look st the NAV. It means nothing after 18 years of dividend reinvestment and my contributions.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by ruralavalon »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:17 am Thank you but because of (great advice from this forum) I have to buy into efts not mutual funds (I work and reside abroad right now). There is no single eft for the emerging market for Schwab so I have to use a combination of three (SCHE, SCHC, and SCHF).

But my question wasn't about the eft SCHE per se. I was mainly using SCHE as an example.

My question is the same for all EFTs that have relatively the same price ten years ago as they do today... and that question is: Is it only if the stock price goes up (or if there is a dividend payment) that I make money. [emphasis added]

Again if a share in an index etf (or index mutual fund) costs 24.00 in 2000 and in 2020 it sells for 24.01 then I've lost money, right?

(leaving aside the minor and rare cap gains and rare div pay outs...unless I'm clueless here too)

I think @TomatoTomahto possibly illustrates (or further confuses?) my question in his link to the growth of 10000 of VEMAX
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... ance/vemax

10000 USD on April of 09 buys me about 330 shares at a price of 26.31
Ten years of buy and hold the price of a single share is 36.03
around a 10.00 difference per share.
So if I bought into VEMAX in 2009 I would own 380 shares

in 2019 380 shares are worth 36.03 or 13691
That's a profit of almost 4k
However on the link above it states that this original 10K would be worth almost 20K

I was asking about EFTs not Mutual Funds but the question should still be the same.
What am I missing here. Where is my math wrong or where did this extra 6k come from?
(if it's dividends or capital gains it wouldn't matter I don't think the Etfs above (SCHE, SCHF, SCHC gain any real div)
Yes, ETFs pay dividends. You need to include dividends paid in deciding if any particular ETF suits your needs.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), "Price and performance tab. Including dividends over the last 10 years emerging markets yielded a total return of 100%, and an initial investment of $10,000 turned into $20,000. The annual average return was 7.24%.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

Flyer24 wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:19 am You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment.
Thanks! As I said I'm very new and trusted the 3 fund idea (via Schwab ETFS) but trying to learn as much as possible.

Okay so focusing on NAV was my problem. I knew I wasn't getting something. So instead of NAV (ignore NAV? for long haul buy and hold), I should be looking at performance (or?)

(how do I find compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment?) is that in the performance tab?

Again, thank you to everyone who is responding.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by dbr »

The general result in investing in something with a positive expected return and high variability of return is that the wealth accumulated over time will be a distribution that tends upward over time and also spreads out over time. In other words the uncertainty of results becomes greater and greater with time although superimposed on a generally upward trend.

The catch is that out of all the possible outcomes the investor gets only the one he gets. That can be an outcome that is far below expected and very disappointing. Whether or not the worst case is even a gain is not guaranteed though with positive expected return the chances of an actual loss decrease with time for most investments. Emerging markets probably is a worst case for expected volatility of return compared to expected average return even if the expected average is greater than that for other possible stock assets.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by dbr »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:40 am
Flyer24 wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:19 am You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment.
Thanks! As I said I'm very new and trusted the 3 fund idea (via Schwab ETFS) but trying to learn as much as possible.

Okay so focusing on NAV was my problem. I knew I wasn't getting something. So instead of NAV (ignore NAV? for long haul buy and hold), I should be looking at performance (or?)

(how do I find compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment?) is that in the performance tab?

Again, thank you to everyone who is responding.
To be more specific return always includes all dividends and distributions and performance expressed as CAGR reflects return assuming all dividends and distributions are reinvested. Conventionally "growth of $10,000" is a report of return, not of price.

None of this changes the fact that returns can be far less than expected and disappointing for long periods of time.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by Flyer24 »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:40 am
Flyer24 wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:19 am You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment.
Thanks! As I said I'm very new and trusted the 3 fund idea (via Schwab ETFS) but trying to learn as much as possible.

Okay so focusing on NAV was my problem. I knew I wasn't getting something. So instead of NAV (ignore NAV? for long haul buy and hold), I should be looking at performance (or?)

(how do I find compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment?) is that in the performance tab?

Again, thank you to everyone who is responding.
Yep. Look in the performance tab on the Schwab site. It will have compound growth chart for a 10K investment.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

Will do, great thanks!
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by ruralavalon »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:40 am
Flyer24 wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 10:19 am You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment.
Thanks! As I said I'm very new and trusted the 3 fund idea (via Schwab ETFS) but trying to learn as much as possible.

Okay so focusing on NAV was my problem. I knew I wasn't getting something. So instead of NAV (ignore NAV? for long haul buy and hold), I should be looking at performance (or?)

(how do I find compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment?) is that in the performance tab?

Again, thank you to everyone who is responding.
As you mentioned Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) has been in existence only 9 years, so cannot report long-term results.

For dividends distributed see Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) "Distributions" tab.

For total return see Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE)"Performance" tab. Look at the "Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment" graph. Since inception 9 years ago an initial investment of $10,000 has grown to $14,175. "This graph represents the growth of a hypothetical investment of $10,000. It assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains . . ."
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by kevinpet »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 9:11 am I know what risk is, and I know "some" efts have low return... . I'm not looking at wild risky efts, I'm asking about the basic boring index funds advised here for the 3-fund portfolio via the Schwab version--

Is the answer really-- buy and hold for ten years and what you get (in the Schwab international) will be no better (sometimes worse) than a lock box in under your mattress.

No offense but does anyone have a more detailed answer? I can't imagine this is it.
You're looking at historical performance. If we could build our portfolios with the benefit of hindsight, we would not be holding diversified portfolios but instead would have been 100% Cisco in 1995, then Cash in late 1999, Apple until 2012, Google until 2016, then Bitcoin for a year, and finally Amazon.

But we don't, so we want to hold a portion of all those assets that might go up. I think there are two ways that you can convince yourself of this. First, no one likes risk. Everyone would prefer a portfolio that just goes straight up at 7% to something that goes up and down 20% a year but averages 7% over the long run. Second, there are lot of legitimately smart people control a lot of money and their career success is based on finding anything that is not priced appropriately for its expected future returns. If it really were the case that emerging markets had generally worse prospects than us stocks, we can expect the price of emerging markets to fall as people sold until someone else comes in to buy when they think the price has fallen enough that now, emerging markets is a better bet than US.

If you want to build a portfolio by looking just at historical returns, I'd invite you to consider what that above described time machine portfolio looks like if you buy Cisco in 1999, sell in 2012 to buy Apple, sell in 2016 to buy Google, sell that in 2017 to buy Bitcoin, and then dump Bitcoin today to buy Amazon.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

Thank you for your thoughtful and considerable response .
I have no problem with risk and waiting. Right now it's kind of a joke to tell the wife that we lost 5k today, oh we gained 6k, lost 3k-- as we're not touching it for at least a decade I know it'll jump around... volatility, risk, but investing heavily (but not solely) in the US total market index with the understanding that I will lose everything only if we all lose everything.

I was sincerely confused as for the EM. It didn't seem risky. It didn't jump up and down, it seemed to just sit there. Blah. It didn't make sense how the EM would just float above the surface for a decade, but I remember looking at so many other stocks (Microsoft, Lululemon which floated for so long until a year or two ago and then exploded). All these comments have helped not only with staying the course but how to read the charts a little better.

I really appreciate all the help.
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by sometimesinvestor »

A significant reason for the underperformance by emerging market funds over the period you named is the strength of the dollar. A strong dollar is doubly bad for emerging markets as it increases the cost of borrowing by these countries and the NAV is first computed in local currency which looks bad when converted to dollars. AS suggested by some don't invest in emerging markets or do so if you read articles about the dollar weakening
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by blackcoffeegasoline »

If that's true then you are saying to not follow the 3 fund portfolio (seeing that the international includes international emerging)
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by ruralavalon »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 4:31 pm If that's true then you are saying to not follow the 3 fund portfolio (seeing that the international includes international emerging)
Using three funds without emerging markets is what some people do if the account they are using (such as a 401k) offers only a developed markets fund, and nothing else for international stocks.

Just do the best you can with what is available to you.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

Post by retire2022 »

blackcoffeegasoline wrote: Sat May 18, 2019 4:31 pm If that's true then you are saying to not follow the 3 fund portfolio (seeing that the international includes international emerging)
Black

Check out the comparison of Templeton Emerging Market Fund (EMF) against Total Stock Market Fund and Vanguard 500

I chose the EMF against Total Stock Market and Vanguard 500 as they are relatively comparable since 1980's. Mark Mobius was the hot manager at the time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/cef ... 2%3A955%7D
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