US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

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Topic Author
Sarastro
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:12 am

US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Sarastro »

Vanguard US Growth has now moved ahead in 3-Yr. and 5 Yr. Returns vs. POGRX and Vanguard's Primecap (which is still a closed fund for some investors). And it is ahead by about 7% YTD over the Primecap Funds. I have been following US Growth now for awhile and it seems to be saying to me it is worth considering being favored over the Primecap funds I have been in for years. Thinking of making the switch. It has been 18 years since I left US Growth.
Corgitodd
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:45 pm

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Corgitodd »

US Growth just merged with Morgan Growth, maybe that accounts for the increased returns? maybe look at the holdings vs Primecap which might have more tech and/or healthcare stocks
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10659
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by MotoTrojan »

Investing in what has done well recently is generally a good way to lose money, you want to invest in what will do well in the future. Your post seems a bit concerning in that regard, at-least you stuck with this last exit for almost 2 decades.
HEDGEFUNDIE
Posts: 4801
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:06 pm

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE »

Sarastro wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 1:25 pm Vanguard US Growth has now moved ahead in 3-Yr. and 5 Yr. Returns vs. POGRX and Vanguard's Primecap (which is still a closed fund for some investors). And it is ahead by about 7% YTD over the Primecap Funds. I have been following US Growth now for awhile and it seems to be saying to me it is worth considering being favored over the Primecap funds I have been in for years. Thinking of making the switch. It has been 18 years since I left US Growth.
And POAGX has demolished them all.
Topic Author
Sarastro
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:12 am

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Sarastro »

POAGX invests in small and mid-cap growth companies, where US Growth (and POGRX) invest in large-cap growth companies, so not similar stock funds. I own POAGX and have no issues with that choice for my small and mid-cap growth portion of my allocations. US Growth has been outperforming Primecap and POAGX for quite awhile now on a quarterly basis. Quite a big difference YTD in 2019. I have held Primecap and POGRX for many years. Been following them all closely though for about 2 years now to see how they do against each other in up and down market phases. So that was long before the very recent merge of Morgan Growth into US Growth.
US Growth has been quite impressive over past 5 years and now that it is posting better 3 & 5 yr. returns over POGRX and Primecap, it may, repeat may (can't ever predict future returns of course) be worth considering vs. the other two. Many investors cannot even get into Primecap since it is a closed fund anyway. I can get in and out at any time of Primecap due to my status at Vanguard. So it is now a neck and neck race for US Growth vs. POGRX which are still both open to all Vanguard investors, with US Growth pulling out into the lead on performance going back 5 years.
I subscribe to Dan Wiener's newsletter, and he still refuses to endorse US Growth over Primecap or POGRX and only lists it as a "Hold" fund for investors. But he is slow to make any major long term changes in his opinions and ratings.
onourway
Posts: 2669
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:39 pm

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by onourway »

Chasing past returns is a great way to shoot yourself in the foot. When you do so you are selling low to buy high and you have no idea what will happen in the future.
Jags4186
Posts: 5122
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Jags4186 »

It’s not a good idea to performance chase. Why are you considering returning the Vanguard US Growth vs another fund which has done even better than that in the last 3 or 5 years? Vanguard’s Growth Index fund has demolished the US Growth Fund since inception, 3%+ CAGR since 1993.
Topic Author
Sarastro
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:12 am

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Sarastro »

I absolutely agree chasing performance returns can backfire. But long term performance stats can also indicate changes in which one managed fund is now performing better than another in a similar asset class too. So what do you do when one managed (non-index) large cap growth fund is appearing to outperform another you have been in long term? Just ignore it? There obviously is no way looking forward to predict if this will continue. Right now, US Growth now has a better YTD, as well as a 3 and 5 year record than POGRX and Primecap. The past 5 years have been part of a secular bull market phase we have been in since 2009.
What if indeed going forward US Growth continues to out perform the Primecap funds long term? That is a possibility. Is there any way to be 100% sure that this will happen? No. So it is more a choice of which fund do you think is now better than the other. You have to go with a gut feeling and keep any eye on performance stats going forward to see if the trend you now see continues to play out. When do you pull the trigger and switch a long term choice you have made in an asset class?
I would say it is now worth considering changing a long term strategy in this asset class.

BTW; US Growth also is doing better in the 3 yr. and 5 yr. performance columns than the passive Growth Index fund as well. However Growth Index is beating US Growth YTD as of 4/30/19 and BOTH of them are blowing out Primecap and POGRX YTD by more than 5%. Healthcare stock performance could be the culprit. A number of Index funds are really handing it to managed funds in similar asset classes in 2019.
Topic Author
Sarastro
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:12 am

Re: US Growth vs. POGRX and Primecap

Post by Sarastro »

Glad I decided in May, 2019 to go back into US Growth. Have made very handsome gains as it has blown away its competitors in the large cap growth sector. Will it continue to do so? Time will tell. But for the last 15 months it has been on fire.
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