Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

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petilon
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Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by petilon » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:38 am

My retirement plan involves splitting my savings between bond funds (such as VWIUX) and index funds (such as VFIAX). Bonds will give me 5% to 6% annual interest, which I can use to pay for part of my living expenses. I can sell up to 4% of index funds annually "to create my own dividend". I have saved up just enough money to execute on this plan. But my worry is that if a 2008-like crash happens I will not have any security at all. During the crash interest rate dropped to almost zero (goodbye, interest from bond funds) and index funds dropped to half their value (goodbye, ability to sell a portion of index funds without eating into principal). Is it at all possible to be prepared for a 2008-like crash during retirement? The sources of income all dry up, including interest and growth in funds. So what do you do, especially if the post-crash depression lasts a decade? What did retirees do during the 2008 crash?

mega317
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by mega317 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:36 am

Yes it is possible. Relying on 5-6% from bonds plus selling 4% of stocks means you haven't saved enough. Save more, invest for total return, and develop a withdrawal plan that is expected to work through a stock crash.

jebmke
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by jebmke » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:45 am

5-6% interest on bonds doesn't seem realistic.

Real rates on moderate duration bonds are ~ 1/2% right now.

I retired in December, 2007. Through the down-tick I was using bonds to re-balance AND cash flow. I did shift some of my bond funds from nominal bonds to individual Tips. Real rates were about 3% on Tips at the time.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Mountain Doc
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by Mountain Doc » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:47 am

The yield on VWIUX is 2.11% right now. You will have to take a lot of risk in bonds (junk bonds) to get 5-6% interest right now.

Read about the Trinity Study and 4% safe withdrawal rate. This will give you a better understanding of how to plan for retirement while accounting for the possibility of a major market decline.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates

delamer
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by delamer » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:48 am

Get familiar with the concept of SWRs (safe withdrawal rates): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates

Planning your retirement nest egg around SWRs is a better system than the one you are considering.

A typical SWR is 4%. That means in year 1 of retirement that you need 25 times your annual withdrawals in your portfolio.

So if your expenses are $50,000 and you have $30,000 in Social Security benefits, then you’ll take $20,000 from your portfolio each year. With a 4% SWR plan, you’d need $500,000 in your portfolio to do so.

Note that SWRs are tested for success over a variety of economic conditions, including long and severe recessions like we had a decade ago.

Good luck.

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petilon
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by petilon » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am

Mountain Doc wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:47 am
The yield on VWIUX is 2.11% right now.
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?

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Mountain Doc
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by Mountain Doc » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:03 am

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?
Past returns are not a good predictor of future returns in bonds because of changes in interest rates generally. Look at the SEC yield, which is a better predictor of the future.

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RickBoglehead
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by RickBoglehead » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:04 am

Some put a portion of their fixed income holdings into CASH, such as a MMF. Some hold up to 7 years, or more, this way. That way any long term downturn has little to no effect.
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by delamer » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:07 am

Mountain Doc wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:03 am
petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?
Past returns are not a good predictor of future returns in bonds because of changes in interest rates generally. Look at the SEC yield, which is a better predictor of the future.
Not to mention that a one-year return on an investment you’ll hold for 30 years tells you almost nothing.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:14 am

Does your 4% equity withdrawal include the dividends from those equity funds? If not it won’t reliably last you 30 years, not to mention the bond discrepancy.

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cheese_breath
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by cheese_breath » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:22 am

RickBoglehead wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:04 am
Some put a portion of their fixed income holdings into CASH, such as a MMF. Some hold up to 7 years, or more, this way. That way any long term downturn has little to no effect.
And CASH can also include CD ladder. So maybe have 2-3 years in MMF or savings with an Internet bank, then CDs of varying maturities.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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cheese_breath
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by cheese_breath » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:24 am

delamer wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:07 am
Mountain Doc wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:03 am
petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?
Past returns are not a good predictor of future returns in bonds because of changes in interest rates generally. Look at the SEC yield, which is a better predictor of the future.
Not to mention that a one-year return on an investment you’ll hold for 30 years tells you almost nothing.
And "average" doesn't mean you'll get 5.15% every year. Some will be higher, some lower.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:29 am

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am
Mountain Doc wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:47 am
The yield on VWIUX is 2.11% right now.
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?
How old are you? When do you plan to retire? How much do you need annually to be able to retire?

The best predictor of a bond's return is it's yield to maturity. The current coupon's are about 2.5%, you should expect to earn 2.5% annually not 5-6%. Equities may return 5%, but that is not including risk. If you want to survive a 2008 like event, you may need a minimum of 10X annual spending in high quality bonds. The remainder should be invested in equities. If markets decline, take your spending from the fixed income component, allowing equities to recover. The only problem is, if you encounter a Japanese style deflationary event, even 10X in fixed income may not save you.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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midareff
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by midareff » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:33 am

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:38 am
My retirement plan involves splitting my savings between bond funds (such as VWIUX) and index funds (such as VFIAX). Bonds will give me 5% to 6% annual interest, which I can use to pay for part of my living expenses. I can sell up to 4% of index funds annually "to create my own dividend". I have saved up just enough money to execute on this plan. But my worry is that if a 2008-like crash happens I will not have any security at all. During the crash interest rate dropped to almost zero (goodbye, interest from bond funds) and index funds dropped to half their value (goodbye, ability to sell a portion of index funds without eating into principal). Is it at all possible to be prepared for a 2008-like crash during retirement? The sources of income all dry up, including interest and growth in funds. So what do you do, especially if the post-crash depression lasts a decade? What did retirees do during the 2008 crash?
I'd go back and rethink that highlighted text .. lots. ... and while we are at it if you take a dividend at 5.5%, for the sake of example, and sell 4% of equities your withdrawal rate is quite higher than 4%.

"So what do you do, especially if the post-crash depression lasts a decade? What did retirees do during the 2008 crash?" Do not retire in exactly this position.. " I have saved up just enough money to execute on this plan." Work longer and save more on both counts.. needing a withdrawal rate higher than 4% and expecting unrealistic returns on bonds..

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petilon
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by petilon » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:36 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:14 am
Does your 4% equity withdrawal include the dividends from those equity funds? If not it won’t reliably last you 30 years, not to mention the bond discrepancy.
I have been reading that dividend funds such as VHDYX aren't really better for retirement income than S&P 500 index funds such as VFIAX. When a stock pays dividend its value goes down. If so you might as well invest in the best funds available then "create your own dividend" by selling equity. So my plan is to invest in the best index funds regardless of dividend, then sell 4% annually.

More on this:

https://www.physicianonfire.com/selling ... dividends/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/20 ... d-for-you/

delamer
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by delamer » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:43 am

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:36 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:14 am
Does your 4% equity withdrawal include the dividends from those equity funds? If not it won’t reliably last you 30 years, not to mention the bond discrepancy.
I have been reading that dividend funds such as VHDYX aren't really better for retirement income than S&P 500 index funds such as VFIAX. When a stock pays dividend its value goes down. If so you might as well invest in the best funds available then "create your own dividend" by selling equity. So my plan is to invest in the best index funds regardless of dividend, then sell 4% annually.

More on this:

https://www.physicianonfire.com/selling ... dividends/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/20 ... d-for-you/
Well, if you sell 4% of the current balance annually then you’ll never run out of money. The same would be true if you sell 50% annually.

The problem is that your income can fluctuate wildly depending on each year’s account balance.

Again — investigate SWRs.

livesoft
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by livesoft » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:47 am

@petilon,

There is an outstanding series on the topic of withdrawal rates found starting at this link:
The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates

If you spend some time reading this series, then I think you would be all set.
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MotoTrojan
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:01 pm

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:36 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:14 am
Does your 4% equity withdrawal include the dividends from those equity funds? If not it won’t reliably last you 30 years, not to mention the bond discrepancy.
I have been reading that dividend funds such as VHDYX aren't really better for retirement income than S&P 500 index funds such as VFIAX. When a stock pays dividend its value goes down. If so you might as well invest in the best funds available then "create your own dividend" by selling equity. So my plan is to invest in the best index funds regardless of dividend, then sell 4% annually.

More on this:

https://www.physicianonfire.com/selling ... dividends/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/20 ... d-for-you/
I’m 100% with you but your choice of 4% makes me think you are referencing the trinity study safe withdrawal rate. That includes dividends. I agree VFIAX is a great choice but it has a dividend yield of almost 2% so you would only be withdrawing an additional 2% on top of taking the dividend as cash.

Just making sure you understand how that 4% rule is calculated. Withdrawing 4% via sales AND withdrawing your dividend will crash and burn quite often.

miket29
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by miket29 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:05 pm

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:38 am
My retirement plan involves splitting my savings between bond funds (such as VWIUX) and index funds (such as VFIAX). Bonds will give me 5% to 6% annual interest, which I can use to pay for part of my living expenses. I can sell up to 4% of index funds annually "to create my own dividend". But my worry is that if a 2008-like crash happens I will not have any security at all.
I am looking at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vwiux and under average annual returns the chart shows return of 5.15% in the last year. Am I reading this wrong?
Yes. When interest rates drop then bond prices rise. As you may have read the yield curve inverted. This is from a combination of shorter term rates rising and longer term rates falling. The 5.15% return is after the fact and is not a prediction of what you will receive over retirement.

A 2008-like crash isn't the worst scenario. The market can be down for protracted periods. Even ignoring the example of Japan where the drop lasted decades and looking at just the US market, the data you can create at https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/ shows that 10% of the time for rolling 5 year periods over the last 60 years the market averaged an annual loss of about 3.3% so you could be down 15% at the end of 5 years. From the fall in 1973 it took almost 6 years for the market to reach the previous level. And if your 10 year period after retirement ended in Feb 2009 the market was down 35% from the start (down 23% with dividends reinvested)

Another problem retirees face is called "sequence of returns". A few years of market decline might not matter than much if they happen when you are 80 but can devastate your savings if they happen near or right after retirement, forcing retirees to sell assets when they are at low prices.

It sounds like you want a withdrawal rate of almost 5% from your portfolio. The Trinity study already mentioned suggested 4% and newer articles such as one discussed in https://www.cbsnews.com/news/safe-withd ... -4-percent suggest that with current high market valuations and low bond returns the safe return might be 3%
Last edited by miket29 on Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

KlangFool
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by KlangFool » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:11 pm

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:38 am
My retirement plan involves splitting my savings between bond funds (such as VWIUX) and index funds (such as VFIAX). Bonds will give me 5% to 6% annual interest, which I can use to pay for part of my living expenses. I can sell up to 4% of index funds annually "to create my own dividend". I have saved up just enough money to execute on this plan. But my worry is that if a 2008-like crash happens I will not have any security at all. During the crash interest rate dropped to almost zero (goodbye, interest from bond funds) and index funds dropped to half their value (goodbye, ability to sell a portion of index funds without eating into principal). Is it at all possible to be prepared for a 2008-like crash during retirement? The sources of income all dry up, including interest and growth in funds. So what do you do, especially if the post-crash depression lasts a decade? What did retirees do during the 2008 crash?
petilon,

You are asking the wrong question. The correct questions are

A) Is your portfolio big enough? 25X annual expense? Or a lot more?

B) Can your portfolio handle a 50% stock loss and support withdrawal long enough until the recovery? 5 years? 10 years?

Both (A) and (B) are not dependent on the bond's interest rate and so on.

KlangFool

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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by Shallowpockets » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:14 pm

Worry, worry, worry. Not a good thing to dwell on. There is only so much you can do. Do it, that which is within your power. You need to stick to your plan and excecute it. If 2008 happens again and lingers for recovery, we are all in that same boat. You only need to get through the crash and the recovery, so don't project out too far on how your money will go.
Don't be fearful.

kaneohe
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by kaneohe » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:58 pm

If you have a source of "guaranteed" income (pensions/SS), that can help a lot during crashes esp. if they cover the basic needs so you can avoid depleting your portfolio when it is down.

FBN2014
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by FBN2014 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:11 pm

You would probably be a candidate for putting a portion of your assets into an annuity that would guarantee an income to cover a portion of your expenses. I know annuities are bad mouthed by many on this board but for some people it could be appropriate especially for those who are overly concerned about another 2008 event. I would determine how much guaranteed income you need and then use one of the annuity quote engines to see how much money you would need to commit to an annuity to achieve the desired income.
"October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May March, June, December, August and February." - M. Twain

ubermax
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by ubermax » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:49 pm

In the Fall of 2008 we first moved all monies in stock mutual funds to prime money market and then , as the debacle continued across fixed , we moved those holdings to prime money market , all with Vanguard - got back in a little late in the early Fall of 2009 having retired that past Spring .

Fortunately my DW wasn't ready to retire and continued working for another three years but during that period we cut what we could control , non essential expenses as Taylor would recommend and today we could probably do OK with 100% in MM for awhile while again keeping an eye on expenses .

OP , you seem worried but don't divulge too much about other sources of income , i.e. SS and pension - if you're receiving either or both , will that income sustain you in a long term downturn ?

For all of us though floatability depends a lot on how healthy we remain , that's the big unknown .

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petilon
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by petilon » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:19 pm

ubermax wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:49 pm
OP , you seem worried but don't divulge too much about other sources of income , i.e. SS and pension - if you're receiving either or both , will that income sustain you in a long term downturn ?
I am in my early 50s but in my line of work it is hard to get employment in your 50s. So I need to be prepared for "involuntary retirement" in a couple of years. I have no pension and I am too young for SS.

I am surprised some people can rely on pensions. What type of jobs have pension benefit?

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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:27 pm

petilon wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:19 pm
ubermax wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:49 pm
OP , you seem worried but don't divulge too much about other sources of income , i.e. SS and pension - if you're receiving either or both , will that income sustain you in a long term downturn ?
I am in my early 50s but in my line of work it is hard to get employment in your 50s. So I need to be prepared for "involuntary retirement" in a couple of years. I have no pension and I am too young for SS.

I am surprised some people can rely on pensions. What type of jobs have pension benefit?
Federal employees have a pension benefit, many municipalities on a state/local level provide pensions, there are still some private employers which provide pensions. All else, you can create your own pension by purchasing immediate annuities and/or deferred annuities, or you can save, invest in a diversified portfolio of investments over time and withdraw on a variable percentage basis to create your own form of pension.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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gilgamesh
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by gilgamesh » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:08 pm

Study ‘sequence risk’ in retirement, which will lead you to the trinity study...2008 is child’s play, worse has and can happen. There are ways to prepare for it...you are just starting you journey into the fascinating world of planning for retirement income.

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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by jcar » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:21 pm

RickBoglehead wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:04 am
Some put a portion of their fixed income holdings into CASH, such as a MMF. Some hold up to 7 years, or more, this way. That way any long term downturn has little to no effect.

[/quote
I do think this is the best approach, though I hold 4 years in MM and CDs. For my usual times I now just tap dividends when wanted, keeps it simple.

anoop
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by anoop » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:56 pm

No financial crisis in our lifetime.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/20 ... -lifetimes

doneat53
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by doneat53 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 pm

I highly recommend "Why Bother with Bonds" by Rick Van Ness. It is a short read with good illustrations and will give you a general knowledge of bonds and what affects their yields. I think it is a must read for anyone with bonds in their portfolio (most of us).

doneat

CnC
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by CnC » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:33 pm

I'm afraid the op simply doesn't have enough to survive an 08 style crash without going back to work or drastically cutting his expenses.

Relying on 5-6% from bonds and 4% from stocks will not work.

The first step topic poster is to come up with your expenses including health insurance and taxes. Then multiply them by 25. If that is larger than your assets then you likely won't make it through an 08 style crash and you will need to either continue working and saving or cut your expenses.

If we have a great bull run and nothing bad happens then sure you will be fine. But since you didn't ask for best case scenario I will have to bare bad news.

delamer
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by delamer » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:51 am

CnC wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:33 pm
I'm afraid the op simply doesn't have enough to survive an 08 style crash without going back to work or drastically cutting his expenses.

Relying on 5-6% from bonds and 4% from stocks will not work.

The first step topic poster is to come up with your expenses including health insurance and taxes. Then multiply them by 25. If that is larger than your assets then you likely won't make it through an 08 style crash and you will need to either continue working and saving or cut your expenses.

If we have a great bull run and nothing bad happens then sure you will be fine. But since you didn't ask for best case scenario I will have to bare bad news.
S/he needs to take into account income from Social Security/pensions when determining the needed nest egg.

FBN2014
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by FBN2014 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:36 am

anoop wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:56 pm
No financial crisis in our lifetime.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/20 ... -lifetimes
Those comments by Yellen are almost 2 years old. I would like to know her feelings about this latest development: https://m.mpamag.com/news/nointerest-no ... 65283.aspx

Also, I have read that the amount of bad student loan debt is in the trillions and could trigger another crisis.
"October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May March, June, December, August and February." - M. Twain

tampaite
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by tampaite » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:52 am

Deleting my messages on this forum
Last edited by tampaite on Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

CnC
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by CnC » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:41 am

[removed reference to political comment and response to it - might72]

anoop
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by anoop » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:19 am

FBN2014 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:36 am
anoop wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:56 pm
No financial crisis in our lifetime.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/20 ... -lifetimes
Those comments by Yellen are almost 2 years old. I would like to know her feelings about this latest development: https://m.mpamag.com/news/nointerest-no ... 65283.aspx

Also, I have read that the amount of bad student loan debt is in the trillions and could trigger another crisis.
Student loans are actually not that big of deal.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015 ... loans.html
They are more of a drag on the economy (e.g, people with student loans will have trouble taking on additional debt to buy a house or car) than a potential trigger for a crisis.

A lot of websites indulge in "yellow journalism". The only website I have found to be accurate is Calculated Risk. Right now he's not even on recession watch and he thinks the future is very bright. There some excessive leverage in the stock market (stock market is not the economy), but housing is on a very solid footing.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018 ... -2019.html
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018 ... ssion.html

I think things are a lot better than doomsayers make it out to be, and there a lot of such websites. It's not all honky dory -- there are some issues that need to be dealt with like social security and medicare -- but we're not exactly teetering on the brink of a collapse.

PDX_Traveler
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Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by PDX_Traveler » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:09 pm

CnC wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:41 am
petilon wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:30 am
FBN2014 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:36 am
anoop wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:56 pm
No financial crisis in our lifetime.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/20 ... -lifetimes
Those comments by Yellen are almost 2 years old. I would like to know her feelings about this latest development: https://m.mpamag.com/news/nointerest-no ... 65283.aspx

Also, I have read that the amount of bad student loan debt is in the trillions and could trigger another crisis.
[removed comment about politics -might72]
[removed snarky, personal attack -might72]
[removed snarky, personal attack -might72]

Comment on the Yellen reference and the student debt "crisis" : it's not the velociraptor you can see that's going to get you, much more likely it's the one hiding off to port or starboard that's going to bite your head off. What triggers the next financial crisis is likely not all that plain in view. However, that there *will* be a financial crisis in my lifetime (again), I am fairly confident. (all respect to Dr. Yellen)

mega317
Posts: 3062
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:55 am

Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by mega317 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:17 pm

CnC wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:41 am
[removed snarky, personal attack -might72]
I think the idea is not that there is any problem with investments but rather the people who work on Wall Street who might come between a retail investor and the gains that would be justified by the fair value of their investments.

CnC
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Getting through a 2008-like crash during retirement

Post by CnC » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:55 pm

mega317 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:17 pm
CnC wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:41 am
[removed snarky, personal attack -might72]
I think the idea is not that there is any problem with investments but rather the people who work on Wall Street who might come between a retail investor and the gains that would be justified by the fair value of their investments.
In my opinion that is a distinction without a difference.

I invest like most others here in mostly the total market. Wall Street is the market. I'm sure there are some greedy bad guys out there. But that's why you invest in the index. You are not going to hurt the bad guys and leave the "good" guys unscathed.

I do not see any way that "going after" wallstreet will not result in damage to my retirement investments.

Like I said I'm trying not to get political, I'm sure things can be done to make things more transparent and hopefully stop things like the 1929 crash.

[removed snarky, personal attack -might72]

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