Time to buy Boeing?

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Freddobbs
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Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Freddobbs » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:30 am

For a small portion of my portfolio I like to buy and hold some long term stocks.

Based on the terrible news of an Ethiopian Plane crash, it seems very likely Boeing has a significant issue with their new 737 MAX. It is conjecture on this incident, but other incidents point to an anti stall automated device that points the nose lower (to avoid the stall) and pilots are unaccustomed to responding to this fly by wire response. If so, there are hundreds of Boeing planes about to be grounded.

As terrible as this sounds, is it time to buy?

There are two big boys in the aircraft market, Airbus and Boeing. Hoping and praying Boeing resolves this issue soon, but is it unwise to realize this as a buying opportunity? I don't see the long term prospects as anything but good for Boeing, but they clearly have a major issue on their hands.

Tony-S
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Tony-S » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:36 am

There's already a lengthy thread about Boeing.

daheld
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by daheld » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:41 am

This ain't the place for single stock Wall Street bets.

mmcmonster
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by mmcmonster » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:42 am

Tony-S wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:36 am
There's already a lengthy thread about Boeing.
And here is the other thread: viewtopic.php?p=4406340

Why do people keep asking about Boeing? Do they think they know more about the company than everyone else in the market?

Beehave
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Beehave » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:07 am

Looks like you're interested in getting advice on the timing of purchase of an individual stock, and neither timing nor individual stock picking is a topic bogleheads generally want to comment about other than to discourage such activity.

That said, I took a quick look at Boeing, and from what I see - - yes it's down 10% pre-open. But it's still very near its 52 week high and far from its 52 week low. And the PE ratio is over 23. So it's a bargain today compared to a week ago, but not to a few months ago.

I stopped buying individual stocks (other than direct discount DCA-in offers from my employer) long ago because there's just too much emotion and temptation involved. And the information I have about any individual stock is very old and shallow compared to what the pros have. Low info, high emotion is a zone I wish to avoid.

I'd recommend putting that money you wish to invest into a total market or S&P 500 or extended index or global index fund.

Best wishes.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:17 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:30 am
For a small portion of my portfolio I like to buy and hold some long term stocks.

Based on the terrible news of an Ethiopian Plane crash, it seems very likely Boeing has a significant issue with their new 737 MAX. It is conjecture on this incident, but other incidents point to an anti stall automated device that points the nose lower (to avoid the stall) and pilots are unaccustomed to responding to this fly by wire response. If so, there are hundreds of Boeing planes about to be grounded.

As terrible as this sounds, is it time to buy?

There are two big boys in the aircraft market, Airbus and Boeing. Hoping and praying Boeing resolves this issue soon, but is it unwise to realize this as a buying opportunity? I don't see the long term prospects as anything but good for Boeing, but they clearly have a major issue on their hands.
It is never a good time to buy a single stock here on Bogleheads. What made you think that today was different?

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Freddobbs
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Freddobbs » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:53 am

[Moved into this thread from Boeing-time to buy?, see below --admin LadyGeek]

Unfortunately I fear this thread will
Be locked. Not my intention.

I believe in the overall boglehead philosophy and almost 97% of my funds are in low cost index funds. I respect those who differ and pledge total devotion to the principle of buying the whole market.

Of course one of the many difference here is this is an individual stock, not a market, however many principles still apply if you feel the stock is undervalued significantly by a short term event or “dip”.

I have heard both warren Buffett and jack Bogle state that one of the many advantages of buying the market is you are buying America and the belief that over time, maybe ten years or more, prices and profits will go up.

Is Boeing different than say a GE? Great question. I too would have thought GE invincible 15 years ago. Does Boeing have the moat Buffett claims he likes? I think it might. There are essentially only two large plane manufacturers on the planet.

This is my “funny money” and a small portion of my portfolio.

As a conversation point that may or may not be actionable, I think buying the majority of Jack Bogles philosophy makes one a “Boglehead”. But I sometimes wonder about the cultish test of purity. I’d also be interested to know how many bogleheads own at least one stock. I think one may be surprised.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by mhadden1 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:01 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:53 am

I believe in the overall boglehead philosophy and almost 97% of my funds are in low cost index funds. I respect those who differ and pledge total devotion to the principle of buying the whole market.

Of course one of the many difference here is this is an individual stock, not a market, however many principles still apply if you feel the stock is undervalued significantly by a short term event or “dip”.

I have heard both warren Buffett and jack Bogle state that one of the many advantages of buying the market is you are buying America and the belief that over time, maybe ten years or more, prices and profits will go up.

Is Boeing different than say a GE? Great question. I too would have thought GE invincible 15 years ago. Does Boeing have the moat Buffett claims he likes? I think it might. There are essentially only two large plane manufacturers on the planet.

This is my “funny money” and a small portion of my portfolio.

As a conversation point that may or may not be actionable, I think buying the majority of Jack Bogles philosophy makes one a “Boglehead”. But I sometimes wonder about the cultish test of purity. I’d also be interested to know how many bogleheads own at least one stock. I think one may be surprised.
There is probably a "funny money" forum that provides valuable information about stock picking, moats, buy and sell timing, and is generally supportive.
Oh I can't, can I? That's what they said to Thomas Edison, mighty inventor, Thomas Lindberg, mighty flyer,and Thomas Shefsky, mighty like a rose.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by barnaclebob » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:05 am

If anyone wants to make a bet on the cause of the Ethiopian 737 Max crash you could pick up BA at a 9% discount right now...

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by TheOscarGuy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:09 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:30 am
For a small portion of my portfolio I like to buy and hold some long term stocks.

Based on the terrible news of an Ethiopian Plane crash, it seems very likely Boeing has a significant issue with their new 737 MAX. It is conjecture on this incident, but other incidents point to an anti stall automated device that points the nose lower (to avoid the stall) and pilots are unaccustomed to responding to this fly by wire response. If so, there are hundreds of Boeing planes about to be grounded.

As terrible as this sounds, is it time to buy?

There are two big boys in the aircraft market, Airbus and Boeing. Hoping and praying Boeing resolves this issue soon, but is it unwise to realize this as a buying opportunity? I don't see the long term prospects as anything but good for Boeing, but they clearly have a major issue on their hands.
Nope.
I would not advise buying individual stocks. I suspect you will get similar answers given that this is a forum of mostly passive index funds investors.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by neilpilot » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:10 am

If you really want to leverage your bet, bypass Boeing stock and buy a call on a 737-8 lease.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by miamivice » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am

calmaniac wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:12 pm
Buy Boeing? I want to sell! I'm trying to unload my 25 year old Boeing stock and move it into index funds (taxable account), but the capital gains give me the willies.

Another reason to stick with index funds in my next life: you don't get stuck with appreciated stock that is expensive to liquidate.
I am curious why you feel index funds would result in less capital gains tax than individual stock?

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Fieldsy1024
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Fieldsy1024 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:14 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:53 am
Unfortunately I fear this thread will
Be locked. Not my intention.

I believe in the overall boglehead philosophy and almost 97% of my funds are in low cost index funds. I respect those who differ and pledge total devotion to the principle of buying the whole market.

Of course one of the many difference here is this is an individual stock, not a market, however many principles still apply if you feel the stock is undervalued significantly by a short term event or “dip”.

I have heard both warren Buffett and jack Bogle state that one of the many advantages of buying the market is you are buying America and the belief that over time, maybe ten years or more, prices and profits will go up.

Is Boeing different than say a GE? Great question. I too would have thought GE invincible 15 years ago. Does Boeing have the moat Buffett claims he likes? I think it might. There are essentially only two large plane manufacturers on the planet.

This is my “funny money” and a small portion of my portfolio.

As a conversation point that may or may not be actionable, I think buying the majority of Jack Bogles philosophy makes one a “Boglehead”. But I sometimes wonder about the cultish test of purity. I’d also be interested to know how many bogleheads own at least one stock. I think one may be surprised.
I agree with this. I also always wondered the % of people here who have 1 company they invest in, or more.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Gufomel » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:16 am

miamivice wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am
calmaniac wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:12 pm
Buy Boeing? I want to sell! I'm trying to unload my 25 year old Boeing stock and move it into index funds (taxable account), but the capital gains give me the willies.

Another reason to stick with index funds in my next life: you don't get stuck with appreciated stock that is expensive to liquidate.
I am curious why you feel index funds would result in less capital gains tax than individual stock?
I think he’s saying he currently has a large capital gain in Boeing stock that he’ll incur tax on if he sells to move to an index. Not that an individual stock inherently incurs more capital gains than an index.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by finite_difference » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:16 am

I was going to say, wouldn’t it be so easy to short Boeing stock today? :mrgreen:

Caveat emptor: Purely hypothetical, not advising anyone to actually do so, and I am not planning to do so myself.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

SarahS
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by SarahS » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:17 am

Today might be a good day to buy. But I’m sticking with index funds because of days like today.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by leonidas » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:23 am

I am not against buying individual stocks. Buying Boeing right now seems to involve quite a bit of risk as the issues with one variant of the 737 are unknown. Boeing without these issues was $100 lower just last year so Im not seeing the compelling value. If you have an IPS and cash lying around I would simply put it to work according to your plan.
Last edited by leonidas on Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:27 am

It's a buy at the 52 week low, it's not a buy when it's only off 7-10% unless you absolutely need to buy it.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Sandtrap » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:33 am

PG&E (Pacific Gas and Electric) went down to $6.13 when they recently filed for bankruptcy, then within a matter of weeks went to over $18 per share. A friend who is a retired employee told me about it and bought into it at the low. I did nothing. But, there's always the "coulda shoulda woulda".
There are many instances of this every day adding to the already deafening financial and general noise of all types of news around us.
The "Boglehead Financial Basics" are like "noise cancellation headphones" = sleep factor and peace of mind.

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Freddobbs
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Freddobbs » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am

All kidding aside, if this thread is so troublesome maybe a policy needs to be stated that individual stock advice is not allowed. Maybe there already is one to which I am not aware.

I’m sorry I ever asked!

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Alan0786 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am

I am still confused, is it a good time to buy Boeing or not?

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snackdog
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by snackdog » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:48 am

It could be a good time to buy Boeing if it drops more than 50% or so and knocks off some of the unwarranted froth of the last couple years. And if the world economy stays intact.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by fposte » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:50 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
All kidding aside, if this thread is so troublesome maybe a policy needs to be stated that individual stock advice is not allowed. Maybe there already is one to which I am not aware.

I’m sorry I ever asked!
This is that existing thread, not the one you started. They may end up merged, though.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:53 am

Alan0786 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
I am still confused, is it a good time to buy Boeing or not?
No. Pick your reason.

1) It is not cheap enough. It is not near 52 weeks' low.

2) It is a lousy bet. You are gambling on an individual for 10% to 20% return. Why bother? The risk versus return is no good. I only gamble on the individual stock that may return 10X to 30X.

3) If you want to gamble, buy a lottery ticket. It is a better bet.

KlangFool

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by StandingRock » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:54 am

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
All kidding aside, if this thread is so troublesome maybe a policy needs to be stated that individual stock advice is not allowed. Maybe there already is one to which I am not aware.

I’m sorry I ever asked!
The moderators can do whatever they want, but does this really seem like the best place to ask about one particular stock, and when to buy/sell that one stock? Have you tried asking anywhere else?

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:58 am

Alan0786 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
I am still confused, is it a good time to buy Boeing or not?
No.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by neilpilot » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:00 am

KlangFool wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:53 am


No. Pick your reason.

1) It is not cheap enough. It is not near 52 weeks' low.

2) It is a lousy bet. You are gambling on an individual for 10% to 20% return. Why bother? The risk versus return is no good. I only gamble on the individual stock that may return 10X to 30X.

3) If you want to gamble, buy a lottery ticket. It is a better bet.

KlangFool
I agree with #1, but not 2 & 3. Just for discussion purposes, say you sell after Boeing recovers from a 10% drop in a month. That's potentially a 11% return in a month, which I would consider to equate to a 33% ANNUALIZED return. After all, when you discuss return it's normally on an annual basis.

As for #3, aren't you being a bit dramatic? A lottery ticket, the odds are that the ticket will be worthless and the loss will not offset any other capital gain. Certainly not a better bet than, say, loosing 25% on Boeing stock.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:09 am

neilpilot wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:00 am
KlangFool wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:53 am


No. Pick your reason.

1) It is not cheap enough. It is not near 52 weeks' low.

2) It is a lousy bet. You are gambling on an individual for 10% to 20% return. Why bother? The risk versus return is no good. I only gamble on the individual stock that may return 10X to 30X.

3) If you want to gamble, buy a lottery ticket. It is a better bet.

KlangFool
I agree with #1, but not 2 & 3. Just for discussion purposes, say you sell after Boeing recovers from a 10% drop in a month. That's potentially a 11% return in a month, which I would consider to equate to a 33% ANNUALIZED return. After all, when you discuss return it's normally on an annual basis.

As for #3, aren't you being a bit dramatic? A lottery ticket, the odds are that the ticket will be worthless and the loss will not offset any other capital gain. Certainly not a better bet than, say, loosing 25% on Boeing stock.
neilpilot,

2) 11% in a month or 33% annualized return is not good enough for me. I am looking for 1,000% to 3,000%

3) << say, loosing 25% on Boeing stock.>> that cost more than $2. Aka, the price of a lottery ticket.

A) Spend $2 on a lottery ticket. You could lose $2 or win 1 million.

B) Put $5,000 on Boeing stock. You could make $1000 (20%) or lose $1,000 (20%).

Why (B) is a good bet when I can make 7% if I put the money into my main portfolio? In fact, my portfolio is returning 5% year-to-date now.

KlangFool

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Fieldsy1024 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:11 am

Even though I didnt make the thread, it's good to read from people who are against single stocks which is why I sold at 440.

It's the only single stock I am in and I don't think I'm in a vast minority here at BH.

Even if its 1%. I think a lot of people have 1 stock they have in their AA.....but maybe most people are 100% honest on the internet.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by corn18 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:43 am

Just as with investing, diversity of thought is a good thing in the bogleheads.org forums.
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Fallible » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:52 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:08 pm
...
You thnk it will go up. The entity selling to you thinks it will go down. Only one of you will be right. Feeling lucky?
And neither the buyer nor the seller can know for certain whether they are right. Enter Luck.
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Dialectical Investor
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Dialectical Investor » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:29 pm

Alan0786 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
I am still confused, is it a good time to buy Boeing or not?
People are commenting on relative price movements and 52-week highs and lows, none of which indicates anything about whether it's a good time to buy. This isn't finance 101, it's more like finance 001. I'd try a different forum.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:41 pm

Alan0786 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
I am still confused, is it a good time to buy Boeing or not?
It might be, if it was a good buy before today, but today’s drop didn’t suddenly make it a good buy. At the moment, it’s only down about 5% from yesterday. Not exactly a fantastic discount, given what’s going on.

There’s also a truism in individual stock investing that bad news is often followed by more bad news. It’s very possible that the other shoe hasn’t dropped yet.

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Fieldsy1024
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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by Fieldsy1024 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:52 pm

Luck has a huge impact on the stock market in general. This is just more high risk high reward. I got lucky and sold at the right time and have it all in an index until the foreseeable future.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:55 pm

If a cause is quickly found that does not implicate the aircraft design/manufacture then BA stock might continue its recent upward trend.
If a cause is quickly found that does implicate the design/manufacture of this model, then BA stock might drop quite a bit farther.
If nothing is found for a while either or neither of the above might happen.
Not sure any of that makes this the time to buy Boeing. Except as part of the total stock market.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by wootwoot » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:55 pm

Buy buy buy.

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Re: Boeing-time to buy?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:06 pm

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
All kidding aside, if this thread is so troublesome maybe a policy needs to be stated that individual stock advice is not allowed. Maybe there already is one to which I am not aware.

I’m sorry I ever asked!
This thread is "troublesome" because "Bogleheads style" approach invests in the entire market. There are a lot of "enthusiastic" responses because individual stocks are not part of this approach and they are explaining why.

To be clear, opposing points of view (holding an individual stock) are welcome. If you have any questions, just ask.

The only policy which will be enforced is here: Board rules, meaning that members who wish to educate someone about individual stocks should do so in a civil, factual manner. :wink:

Our experienced members should read: Please Do Not Bite the Newcomers
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:40 pm

FYI - I merged Freddobbs posts and replies from Boeing-time to buy? into here. The other discussion got derailed, let's continue the discussion to help the OP here.
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Jon_PassiveInvestor » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:49 pm

Might be time to buy after this crash. Their stock is in free fall!

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Fieldsy1024
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Fieldsy1024 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:03 pm

I dont think it's a good time to buy at all.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 pm

From what I've heard, it's more of a training issue with pilots in some countries. That doesn't mean that they won't go with a technical solution requiring updates.
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Mister A » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:35 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 pm
From what I've heard, it's more of a training issue with pilots in some countries. That doesn't mean that they won't go with a technical solution requiring updates.
That's certainly the position Boeing took with Lion Air, causing Lion Air to all but go to war with Boeing for trying to pin it on them.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/the-man ... ke-1964157

Now that it's happened again at a more reputable global airline, with witnesses apparently reporting smoke and luggage pouring out of the back of the plane on the way down, those claims may come back to haunt them and do some lasting damage to the brand.

My sense is that China is capitalizing on it as an opportunity to promote their competing aircraft and break into Boeing's territory in emerging markets. Still, I don't think anyone can say if this is a good time to buy or not. If customers start cancelling 737 MAX orders, then you might see the real low.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by SGM » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:57 pm

Boeing has had quite the run up this year. It is a bad time to buy the stock. I am not recommending buying individual stocks, but I do watch some company stocks. I have a few shares of Lockheed and Northrup Grumman that have done very well. They were among the few stocks that I thought were ridiculously oversold a few years ago. I have sold most of the stock I bought and would have sold all of it except for the very large capital gains. What I have left have something like 300% gains.


I generally do not sell index funds as I want to hold them for the long haul. I still have individual stocks with large capital gains and i have held these stocks for years. Now I just sell a little of the long held individual stock each year because they are riskier. I don't need to sell them for the income, but I want to sell them to be more diversified. if Boeing were to become ridiculously oversold I might buy a small amount. I might sell an index fund if I had the opportunity to tax loss harvest, then I could sell more of the individual stocks.

I have sold enough individual stock so that none are greater than 1% of my portfolio. At one time they were all of my portfolio. My portfolio has much less risk than it once had. I also have bond funds that I never owned while in the accumulating stage.

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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Trader Joe » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:34 pm

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:30 am
For a small portion of my portfolio I like to buy and hold some long term stocks.

Based on the terrible news of an Ethiopian Plane crash, it seems very likely Boeing has a significant issue with their new 737 MAX. It is conjecture on this incident, but other incidents point to an anti stall automated device that points the nose lower (to avoid the stall) and pilots are unaccustomed to responding to this fly by wire response. If so, there are hundreds of Boeing planes about to be grounded.

As terrible as this sounds, is it time to buy?

There are two big boys in the aircraft market, Airbus and Boeing. Hoping and praying Boeing resolves this issue soon, but is it unwise to realize this as a buying opportunity? I don't see the long term prospects as anything but good for Boeing, but they clearly have a major issue on their hands.
No, it is not the time to buy. The stock price has not fallen far enough.

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JonnyDVM
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:54 pm

Nothing wrong with having a few individual stocks in the portfolio to keep things interesting. 5% is totally harmless. I personally think Boeing is likely to go lower. So I would not buy. But I prefer biotech and know nothing about anything.
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

Joeko
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Joeko » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:03 pm

Profiting on a crash causing fatalities? Even if I was ok with stock picking, I wouldn’t buy Boeing right now.

iamlucky13
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:34 pm

Freddobbs wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:30 am
Based on the terrible news of an Ethiopian Plane crash, it seems very likely Boeing has a significant issue with their new 737 MAX. It is conjecture on this incident, but other incidents point to an anti stall automated device that points the nose lower (to avoid the stall) and pilots are unaccustomed to responding to this fly by wire response. If so, there are hundreds of Boeing planes about to be grounded.
To clarify a technical point that will be looked at in detail for the sake of determining Boeing's potential culpability in the accident:

Because of the role (investigators are still determining if the role was direct or indirect, but it was a factor) of the MCAS system in the November crash of a Lionair flight in Indonesia, Boeing issued a bulletin specifically about this system. Every Max pilot worldwide should as a result have a good understanding of what the system does, and how to respond if a fault occurs. This makes me question whether MCAS actually was a factor in the Ethiopian crash.

The bulletin instructed pilots experiencing an MCAS fault to follow a procedure they already know and train on, because the fault with the MCAS system is extremely similar to other potential trim system faults.

These factors could be interpreted as suggesting a low risk of grounding or other financial liabilities for Boeing.

However, my clarification of certain known technical details is not the same as insight into how investigator's will view the fault that occurred on the Lionair flight, especially if it repeated on the Ethiopian flight.

Furthermore, if a design or manufacturing defect unrelated to MCAS is found, that would still mean more potential liability for Boeing than a pure pilot error, for example, and it could even mean more liability than a repeat of the MCAS fault.

Basically, it's hard to call right now whether the share price drop will be short-lived, or is just the start of a worse drop.
Mister A wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:35 pm
That's certainly the position Boeing took with Lion Air, causing Lion Air to all but go to war with Boeing for trying to pin it on them.
I've followed the Lionair investigation fairly closely, and am unaware of a statement fitting Mr. Kirana's accusation that Boeing was trying shift blame onto his airline. The Boeing statement he referred to really only amounts to Boeing summarizing the findings of the preliminary report least likely to reflect negatively on Boeing. They didn't mention training at all, nor make any assertions not supported by the preliminary report.
Mister A wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:35 pm
Now that it's happened again at a more reputable global airline, with witnesses apparently reporting smoke and luggage pouring out of the back of the plane on the way down, those claims may come back to haunt them and do some lasting damage to the brand.
It is very common for witnesses to describe a plane as smoking or on fire before a crash, regardless of whether it actually was. There's not much to be taken at the present time from the witness reports. Investigators will have to consider them critically to determine which of them are credible.

That said, if there really was smoke and luggage pouring out of the aircraft before the crash, then that is very compelling evidence the two crashes had completely different causes. There is no clear reason for either pilot error nor a fault with the MCAS system to cause a fire or anything to fall off the aircraft.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:13 pm

Time to buy Boeing was last year when it went down to $320.

Mister A
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by Mister A » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:12 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:34 pm
I've followed the Lionair investigation fairly closely, and am unaware of a statement fitting Mr. Kirana's accusation that Boeing was trying shift blame onto his airline. The Boeing statement he referred to really only amounts to Boeing summarizing the findings of the preliminary report least likely to reflect negatively on Boeing. They didn't mention training at all, nor make any assertions not supported by the preliminary report.
My recollection - perhaps flawed, but consistent with more recent reporting - is that Boeing took the initial position that there was nothing wrong with failing to disclose what they knew about their MCAS software because existing training should have covered the scenario. The implication, as perceived by Lion Air, was that the true cause of the crash was a training failure at Lion Air, which is consistent with the comment I was responding to: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/worl ... ilots.html

"Boeing has taken the position that the pilots of the Lion Air flight should have known how to handle the emergency despite not knowing about the modification. The company has maintained that properly following established emergency procedures — essentially, a checklist — long familiar to pilots from its earlier 737s should have allowed the crew to handle a malfunction of the so-called maneuvering characteristics augmentation system, known as M.C.A.S., whether they knew it was on the plane or not."
It is very common for witnesses to describe a plane as smoking or on fire before a crash, regardless of whether it actually was. There's not much to be taken at the present time from the witness reports. Investigators will have to consider them critically to determine which of them are credible.
Supposedly, there were other issues unrelated to MCAS with Lion Air's 737 MAX on it's final flights prior to that crash, as well. Either way, what I was suggesting was that - regardless of what happened - we now have a much more dramatic incident at a reputable airline, with pictures of wreckage and emotional descriptions from witnesses, drawing more memorable, mainstream attention to the 737 MAX and Boeing than the previous incident.

Whether both crashes were caused by the MCAS, whether both crashes were caused by something else, or whether neither crash had anything to do with the other, it's asking a lot from your ordinary consumer to understand the fine points, or even the broad strokes of the investigation. Most were willing to write off Lion Air as a complicated incident involving a questionable discount airline. My point was simply that this now has plenty of room to turn into a situation where passengers are fearful of it or governments ground it in spite of all logic, in which case we haven't seen how low the stock can go yet.
Last edited by Mister A on Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

elderwise
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Re: Time to buy Boeing?

Post by elderwise » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:15 am

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:13 pm
Time to buy Boeing was last year when it went down to $320.
I missed it at 304 :twisted: , jokes aside yes there is significant risk.but people who have tons of play money are the ones who can really make a decent profit

So say i had purchased 1000 shares at 304, 304,000$ and if sold at 420 or 400 (right now price) it would have been 100K.. but for those (like myself ) who can only buy 10-50 shares, is the risk / reward really worth it?? not for me.

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