Is anything "cheap" right now?

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carol-brennan
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Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by carol-brennan »

I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
moneywise3
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by moneywise3 »

Wrong forum
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munemaker
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by munemaker »

Don't market time. Just dollar cost average into index funds with an appropriate asset allocation.
uberdoc
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by uberdoc »

Nothing is cheap. We are all fools here. We keep buying expensive equities and bond funds. I think you will have better luck at some other forum.
dbr
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by dbr »

Alternatively everything is cheap right now. At least in the long term perspective there is more to be gained by investing now than not investing if investing is your intention all along.
harvestbook
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by harvestbook »

All I know is that cash is likely to be the most "expensive" over the long term.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
livesoft
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by livesoft »

DGS is still trading well under the highs for the past year. Full disclosure: I own this ETF and have bought more shares recently. I don't know if it is cheap and I don't care.
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H-Town
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by H-Town »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
I see everything is cheap in relative to their long-term pricing in 15-20 years.... even bitcoins. :twisted:

If you want something like in a day trading or so, the buy-in for a poker table at Vegas is considerably cheap compared to the potential winning pot you may get.
NotWhoYouThink
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by NotWhoYouThink »

LA Rams season tickets?
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billyo44
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by billyo44 »

PG&E, Heinz, Conagra...you name it...all cheap. Buy them and most likely watch get them get "cheaper".

"Own an Index Fund, get a life outside of finance, and relax"

John C. Bogle
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goblue100
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by goblue100 »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
Not sure it meets your criteria of being at the low end of a long term range, but international continues to be much cheaper than US. At some point that may change, but who knows?
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns
fujiters
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by fujiters »

Total international. You can still buy at 2006 prices!
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham
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Abe
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Abe »

dbr wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:48 am Alternatively everything is cheap right now. At least in the long term perspective there is more to be gained by investing now than not investing if investing is your intention all along.
I agree with this. I remember 40 years ago and I felt as if the market was too high then. It's always that way. If I was young and knew what I know now, I would invest all I could stand in the total stock market index fund because time would be on my side.
Slow and steady wins the race.
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dmcmahon
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by dmcmahon »

fujiters wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:46 am Total international. You can still buy at 2006 prices!
I second this. Unfortunately, I thought that in 2018. And 2017. And 2016.

OP: if you have space in a tax-deferred account, have you looked at intermediate-term TIPS bonds?
DrGoogle2017
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by DrGoogle2017 »

Maybe emerging market, at least that’s what the talking heads on CNBC being touting.
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cheese_breath
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by cheese_breath »

Investing advice is cheap. Average people and the financial networks give it free.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
asif408
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by asif408 »

Sure. Russia and Turkey are cheap, they are down 50%+ from their 2008 highs. Gold miners are down almost 70% from their 2011 highs. Energy is down a lot since 2014. Even plain old EAFE and EM are still below or right around their 2011 highs. Pretty much anything outside the US looks decent.

IMO this is a great time to be an investor, as long as you're willing to look outside the US stock market. Its only those people staying inside this country's border that are having trouble finding decent investments.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
wootwoot
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by wootwoot »

Emerging markets and Bitcoin!
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leeks
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by leeks »

Local apples were a good price at my farmer's market today. Beets and leeks too.
You won't get a whole lot of better answers here.
jpelder
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by jpelder »

I got some chicken leg quarters for 39 cents per pound last week. That's cheap!
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whodidntante
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by whodidntante »

Lots of things are cheap!

Oil
Copper
Aluminum
Natural Gas
Coal
Detroit real estate
Treasury futures short positions
Ford
GM
GE
United Airlines
Wells Fargo
HP
Phillips 66
Sears
Micron
Chevron
Distressed debt
Kinder Morgan
Transocean
Morgan Stanley
Gazprom
Deutsche Bank
Samsung
Lukoil
Itau Unibanco
Sanofi
Novartis
Toyota
British American Tobacco
HSBC
Total
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z3r0c00l
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by z3r0c00l »

The real answer is, it is not possible to know what is cheap because we can't know future returns. However based on past valuations, certain aspects of international stocks are cheap to my eye. They have been cheap for a long time and I have been waiting for them to become un-cheap so that I can make some money : )
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White Coat Investor
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by White Coat Investor »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
It seems sensible to ask what you're asking. But what you're really asking is "What is going to do well in the future" and there's nobody, not here and not anywhere else, who really knows. Yes, there are times when stocks do better than others. In retrospect there are clearly better times to buy than others. But even if it is a "bad time" to buy it still doesn't mean that you will do better in cash, gold, bitcoin, bonds, whole life insurance, real estate or anything else going forward.

So the best thing to do is to acknowledge that you don't know what the future holds, neither does anyone else, select a reasonable mix of investments likely to do reasonably well no matter what the future holds, and stick with it through thick and thin.

You see, you could look and see that international stocks have a lower PE than domestic stocks right now and buy them because they're "cheaper." But in reality, there may be a very good reason they're cheaper and their future returns could be the same or even lower than domestic stocks.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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yangtui
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by yangtui »

If I knew I wouldn't disclose it on a public forum unless I was paid to.
Valuethinker
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Valuethinker »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
The gap between value stocks and the market as a whole is as large as it has been in a long time particularly if you look at international value. Places like Japan are screamingly cheap although that has been true for a long time. If Japanese managements have truly discovered shareholder value then Japan is as cheap as it was in the early 70s.

Beware. European banks are trading at less than 0.5x book value for a reason. Banks like Deutsche and Italian banks will need recapitalization. The market is not ignoring an obvious bargain.

I don't like the typical EM fund tilt towards China where I think there are accounting issues and big macro risks. But there are a number of well run EM companies put there used to operating in tough and volatile environments. An EM vslue fund might well catch some of those.

Roughly speaking based in the UK I am holding 75 per cent global equity index and 25 per cent global value. Vanguard or ishares.

US TIPS are not cheap by historic standards. But given the macro cycle with full employment and large government deficits they start to look quite attractive on a risk rewards basis.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Doom&Gloom »

"One word: plastics."
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LiveSimple
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by LiveSimple »

Yes Total Stick Market Index ETF ( VTI )
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Abe
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Abe »

White Coat Investor wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:19 pm
carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
It seems sensible to ask what you're asking. But what you're really asking is "What is going to do well in the future" and there's nobody, not here and not anywhere else, who really knows. Yes, there are times when stocks do better than others. In retrospect there are clearly better times to buy than others. But even if it is a "bad time" to buy it still doesn't mean that you will do better in cash, gold, bitcoin, bonds, whole life insurance, real estate or anything else going forward.

So the best thing to do is to acknowledge that you don't know what the future holds, neither does anyone else, select a reasonable mix of investments likely to do reasonably well no matter what the future holds, and stick with it through thick and thin.

You see, you could look and see that international stocks have a lower PE than domestic stocks right now and buy them because they're "cheaper." But in reality, there may be a very good reason they're cheaper and their future returns could be the same or even lower than domestic stocks.
Well said doc. Just because it's cheap does not mean it's a good investment.
Slow and steady wins the race.
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by 2015 »

NotWhoYouThink wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:30 am LA Rams season tickets?
Nominated: Best Post
quantAndHold
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by quantAndHold »

I’m sure something is cheap, but anything that is actually cheap will be ugly enough that nobody will recognize how cheap it is until it isn’t cheap anymore.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
delamer
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by delamer »

yangtui wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:32 pm If I knew I wouldn't disclose it on a public forum unless I was paid to.
Top 10 response of any I’ve seen on this forum!
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by DB2 »

carol-brennan wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:31 am I've had the best luck w/ my investments when moving into something that's at the low end of a long-term range. I look around right now--any type of bonds (certainly stocks)--and don't see anything. Do you?
Gold mining ETFs. In my opinion, gold is starting on what is going to be a very long, strong run as we are coming closer to the end of the business cycle with some major fiscal issues ahead of us.
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market timer
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by market timer »

I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash.
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by pdavi21 »

I know what's cheap, but I don't know how cheap it will get or when it will get expensive.

INTL Stocks, commodities, and cash sounds about right.
"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity." -Stephen Hawking
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Coato »

market timer wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:51 pm I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash.
A few years ago the largest flaw of the Schwab robo choices was said to be the cash allocation. I guess 2018 demonstrated there is still a place for it, or at least an environment in which cash beats stocks and bonds. I wish there was a "real" fund that had commodities, gold, real estate and cash together, i'd love to own a little slice of that that was rebalanced automatically.
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by FrugalInvestor »

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund Admiral Shares are cheap. The expense ratio is 0.04%. This is the kind of cheap that really matters. Grab a bunch now and stick with them through thick and thin. You'll thank me many years from now.
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify, but most importantly....Ignore the Noise!
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market timer
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by market timer »

Coato wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:24 pm
market timer wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:51 pm I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash.
A few years ago the largest flaw of the Schwab robo choices was said to be the cash allocation. I guess 2018 demonstrated there is still a place for it, or at least an environment in which cash beats stocks and bonds. I wish there was a "real" fund that had commodities, gold, real estate and cash together, i'd love to own a little slice of that that was rebalanced automatically.
It's not so hard to build a DIY portfolio:
IAU for gold
VEA/VWO for international
VCSH for cash
CL futures for oil

I'd like to add residential real estate in high-yield markets. There are some single-family REITs (INVH, AMH), but they don't seem to behave like a portfolio of rental properties. I also have some concerns about the management structure. I feel like real estate is an asset class where I'd like more exposure, but am not yet ready to become a landlord.
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emlowe
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by emlowe »

Coato wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:24 pm
market timer wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:51 pm I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash.
A few years ago the largest flaw of the Schwab robo choices was said to be the cash allocation. I guess 2018 demonstrated there is still a place for it, or at least an environment in which cash beats stocks and bonds. I wish there was a "real" fund that had commodities, gold, real estate and cash together, i'd love to own a little slice of that that was rebalanced automatically.
PRPFX The Permanent Portfolio:

20% gold
10% silver
10% Swiss Franc Assets
15% Real Estate and Natural Resource Stocks
15% Aggressive Growth Stocks
35% "Dollar Assets"

The gold and silver is in physical bullion and coins, the dollar assets are in treasury bonds and corporate bonds - it's not really in "cash"
Ferri Core 4: 40% Bonds | 6% Reit | 18% Total i18n | 36% Total US
VTSE0910
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by VTSE0910 »

PRPFX The Permanent Portfolio:
This has an expense ratio of 0.82% and yield of .78%.

DBC is similar at .89% and 1.17%.

Based on my Personal Capital recommended portfolio, I am light in alternatives, but since I can't seem to find a cheap fund, I've divided that portion to some VNQ, but mostly just more bonds and cash.
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by livesoft »

delamer wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:45 pm
yangtui wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:32 pm If I knew I wouldn't disclose it on a public forum unless I was paid to.
Top 10 response of any I’ve seen on this forum!
Who says I wasn't paid for my response?
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ICH
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by ICH »

asif408 wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:27 pm Sure. Russia and Turkey are cheap, they are down 50%+ from their 2008 highs. Gold miners are down almost 70% from their 2011 highs. Energy is down a lot since 2014. Even plain old EAFE and EM are still below or right around their 2011 highs. Pretty much anything outside the US looks decent.
If you're going to take it to this level, I will put GREK on the table. https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/grek/

P/E 11.66
P/B 0.40

However, there are some shortcomings:
1. High expense ratio
2. The Bs in the P/B may not be reliable. They may cook the books there as there is widespread corruption.
3. Similar to #2 for the Es in the P/E.
4. Currency risk.
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carol-brennan
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by carol-brennan »

pdavi21 wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:00 pm I know what's cheap, but I don't know how cheap it will get or when it will get expensive.

INTL Stocks, commodities, and cash sounds about right.
International, such as VWO? I've seen too much correlation between US and international to make that a value play.
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carol-brennan
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by carol-brennan »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:43 pm "One word: plastics."
:)
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Wiggums
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Wiggums »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:45 pm GE's stock price:

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... tock+price

stamps.com just dropped 57.77%% yesterday:
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/stmp/quote.html
Stamps dot com. They cut their revenue in half with no explanation was their initial announcement. So much gut transparency. I learned s long time ago not to catch a falling knife. GE is selling off parts of the company which makes it hard to evaluate the value.

I think I’ll stick with the three fund portfolio. Heck, I might even go all crazy and make it the four fund portfolio.
pdavi21
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by pdavi21 »

carol-brennan wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:03 pm
pdavi21 wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:00 pm I know what's cheap, but I don't know how cheap it will get or when it will get expensive.

INTL Stocks, commodities, and cash sounds about right.
International, such as VWO? I've seen too much correlation between US and international to make that a value play.
All of it. Really easier to say that US stocks are NOT cheap. VWO has lower multiples, but more geopolitical risk, volatility, and exposure to one country.
"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity." -Stephen Hawking
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by whodidntante »

Do let us know what you buy, OP! Let canonical Bogleheads market weight Netflix, Facebook, Alibaba, and Tesla. Wait, did we agree on market weighting foreign stocks yet? :happy
Thegame14
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Thegame14 »

T seems stable and has a 7% dividend.
DarkHelmetII
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by DarkHelmetII »

VDE / VGENX (Vanguard Energy)? But seriously, gonna be hard to consistently beat market returns even if something looks "cheap" right now.
Corgitodd
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Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Post by Corgitodd »

Kraft Heinz
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