bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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panine
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by panine »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:43 pm
Jamesla30 wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:30 pm I can't help you unless you provide more precise info on how much money you have in the real world, and how much you still have in the bitcoin universe. If you think $500,000 or $1,000,000 is enough to live comfortably for the rest of your life, you are mistaken.
i'm not telling.

if you think a mil is not enough to live comfortably, you are not the person i need guidance from. please don't take this as an insult. it's not. i apologize if you are offended. i'm sure you know more than i do when it comes to the market. i respect your views. ours just don't align.
why mistaken? if you put a million dollars in cds getting around 2.5%, you're making around $25,000 interest, no? if you can live off of $15,000 and add the unused $10,000 to your million dollar principal, seems like that's livable to me.
Xrayman69
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Xrayman69 »

chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:02 pm
smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:28 am
celia wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:00 am you need to decide on your goals. Is all the money meant for living expenses for the rest of your life? Do you support family members, such as kids who will go to college in a few years? Do you want to do some “good” in the world with part of the money?

This boils down to how soon should some of the money be available?

If you are married, this should be a joint decision with your spouse.
this goals question is constantly coming up and i don't know how to answer it. to be honest, i have no goals. i've been a drifter my whole life. i'm comfortable just getting by. the best way i can answer this as of right now is i'm just looking for growth beyond my 2.45%. what the actually plan will be is beyond me as of right now. i'm single, i plan to stay single. i have no kids. most of my family is dead. it's pretty much just me. having money for living expenses for the rest of my life seems like a pretty good goal to have. my living expenses is only $450 a month. my 2.45% savings spits out more than that a month. would be nice to beat that but don't think income should come at the expense of growth. if i could get both, that would change things up quite a bit. i would like to do some good in the world. i've dreamed of doing something non-profit long before i had any means to do it. if i could start a non-profit and make a modest wage doing it i would get off my [behind --admin LadyGeek] and work. this is likely the only situation i am willing to work. how soon will i need the money is also an unknown factor. i don't want to live a long life so planning for a late retirement is not part of my plan.
450/month expenses seems unlikely unless you are going without health insurance. Even without it that is far below poverty level.
Vanguard admiral S&P 500 yields over 2% at this time. 5 million yields 100k annually with upside growth opportunity. This is well above $450 a month needed. In addition $450 with inflation needs to be taken into account. The s&p 500 will likely match inflation with low risk long term.
Last edited by Xrayman69 on Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
youngpleb
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by youngpleb »

smoothnobody wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:46 pm i did good with crypto and now i'm trying to figure out what to do with a good chunk of change. i'm early 30's not working and don't want to work. i already bought a home and have investments in peer to peer lending REIT's and robo advisors. (betterment wealthfront fidelity schwab) i've been looking at managed accounts for the rest. JPmorgan suggested 100% US dividend stocks. fidelity suggested 60% bonds 40% US dividend stocks. vanguard suggested 50% bonds 30% US stock 20% international stock. schwab suggested thomas partners income strategy. i don't know where my money will go with thomas partners and i don't like that.

don't want the management fee's to be the deciding factor but it is something to consider. fidelity fee is 1.5%. JPmorgan 1.4%. schwab 0.9%. vanguard 0.3%. vanguard is the clear winner but it's mostly a robo account. wealthfront and betterment do it for 0.25%. vanguard also recommended all vanguard funds. wealthfront and betterment don't have their own funds and pick whatever they feel is best. right now that seems to be a mix between vanguard and schwab.

not sure how i feel about bonds. i understand balanced portfolio but still not sold on bonds. income generating funds seem more interesting. the reason income strategies keep coming up is because i'm unemployed. i'm not a market guy so i like the idea of a managed account just not sure if the fee's are worth it. considering pouring more cash in to the robo advisors. regardless of the fee's i still have to figure out what my strategy is. right now i'm in the most aggressive allocations with my robo advisors.

thoughts? thank you.
Congrats on winning out with crypto! I just read this whole thread. Since you know the amount of money you've got and also your living expenses, you should be able to calculate out the asset allocation you need pretty quickly. Bonds definitely aren't sexy, but they are safe and pay a decent amount of interest. Stocks will also pay dividends and increase/decrease in value, but they're obviously more risky so you don't want to go too heavy there. I definitely wouldn't let any companies or advisers leech off of your money...they just aren't that good and in reality won't do anything that you couldn't do yourself after reading a book or two. If you can survive off of 3% of your portfolio, then that will pretty much make it last for your lifetime. The normal percentage is 4% but since you are younger you'll want to be safe (4% is really for 30-ish years). Assuming you can meet the 3% rule, I'd just do something simple like 50% total bond fund, 35% U.S. stocks fund, and 15% international stocks fund.

To make you more comfortable with the market, you can play around with this site (Portfolio Visualizer) and some different asset allocations to see how they have performed in the past. Obviously past performance is no guarantee of future success yada yada yada, but it's good stuff to know. If you want some book recommendations, I'll happily provide. That would be a good option to take, since there's no rush because the savings account is covering your expenses right now anyways.

Also, probably 40% or so of the comments you will get will try to beat you down for the whole crypto thing. Ignore the trolls. I for one would like to have more people like you around here, as it helps diversify the place and anyone who hits it big from crypto always has an interesting story. :sharebeer
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

panine wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:56 pm if you put a million dollars in cds getting around 2.5%, you're making around $25,000 interest, no? if you can live off of $15,000 and add the unused $10,000 to your million dollar principal, seems like that's livable to me.
i think the rate would be closer to 3.5% but the point you are trying to make is a good one. with big money all in CD's i can live the rest of my life and not have to worry about the market. that's not as fun though and i know i can do better in the market. this is probably the risk taker and greed in me that's speaking cause to be honest the CD play sounds smart.
John Laurens
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by John Laurens »

Bizarre that your living expenses are $450 dollars per month and you want to get them lower yet you are considering paying much more than that per month for an advisor.

Not having health insurance with your assets is crazy.

Regards,
John
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

youngpleb wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:05 pm Congrats on winning out with crypto! Since you know the amount of money you've got and also your living expenses, you should be able to calculate out the asset allocation you need pretty quickly.

Also, probably 40% or so of the comments you will get will try to beat you down for the whole crypto thing. Ignore the trolls. I for one would like to have more people like you around here, as it helps diversify the place and anyone who hits it big from crypto always has an interesting story. :sharebeer
thank you sir. so far the salt has been pretty lite. most of you guys have been super chill. even the few that give me [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] i can appreciate their brash comments. it gives me an opportunity to be a [smart aleck --admin LadyGeek] too. :D

figuring out the allocation is still a work in progress, but after spending some time here it has come together quite a bit. i'm thinking 20% each, total US market, total international, total US bond, REITS, cash.
chessknt
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by chessknt »

John Laurens wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:11 pm Bizarre that your living expenses are $450 dollars per month and you want to get them lower yet you are considering paying much more than that per month for an advisor.

Not having health insurance with your assets is crazy.

Regards,
John
Not only that he doesn't have auto either and he drives. I don't think there is a single state in the country where it is legal to drive without auto insurance. Good luck if he's ever in an auto accident with no auto or health insurance. I guess he can make 450/month working at Walmart in the future quite easily once his money is taken by collections or a lawsuit, just sad that it was so preventable.

Penny wise, pound foolish.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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John Laurens wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:11 pm Bizarre that your living expenses are $450 dollars per month and you want to get them lower yet you are considering paying much more than that per month for an advisor.
fair point. i'm not willing to pay alot for an adviser. i was considering those guys for 1 to 1.5%, but they aren't gonna get my money. i was just considering them cause i have to probe all options. vanguard for 0.3% or the robos for 0.25% still seems reasonable so i have not ruled them out yet.

i also find it equally bizarre you guys are so hard about manager fee's and obsess about 0.0X% expense ratios but are willing to throw money away on insurance.
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bluquark
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark »

If your highly paid investment manager loses you a ton of money, they'll shrug and walk away. If a hospital sticks you with a giant bill, the insurance company will reluctantly pay it, because it's in the contract. Especially with the ACA reforms limiting shenanigans like preexisting condition clauses, insurance companies have much less room to weasel out than they used to.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:23 pm Not only that he doesn't have auto either and he drives. I guess he can make 450/month working at Walmart in the future quite easily once his money is taken by collections or a lawsuit
careful with those assumptions. i never said i don't have auto insurance. maybe i was referring to full coverage? maybe i have limited liability? maybe i live in a state where you don't need insurance on 2 wheel vehicles? maybe i don't drive?

i can appreciate your thought process though. gives me something to think about.
FoolMeOnce
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by FoolMeOnce »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:32 pm i don't believe in insurance. it's a racket. i would rather just pay up if something happens than pay for something that may never happen. the only type of insurance i can agree with is home owners insurance. health auto renters life and everything else can go collect from the next guy.
Why home insurance?
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:39 pm Why home insurance?
it's too big of an investment to gamble with. if you live in an area with natural disasters that is another thing to consider.
aspiringboglehead
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by aspiringboglehead »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:24 pm i also find it equally bizarre you guys are so hard about manager fee's and obsess about 0.0X% expense ratios but are willing to throw money away on insurance.
Investment fees are a pure loss if they don't generate extra gains (and most people here are convinced they don't), whereas the theory behind insurance is that it's rational to transfer money into future possible states of the world where you need it more. If you don't want health insurance because you don't plan to pay for healthcare even if you get sick, nobody should be advising you to purchase health insurance as financial matter. But for people who expect to have more of a need for money when they get sick (which is most people), it's rational to pay a premium now for the service of transferring money to the possible future where you are sick. The same applies to other events that cause your need for money to increase: a fire, destruction of a car, etc. That's just the theory; of course, some insurance in practice is too expensive to make the proposition worthwhile, so deciding whether to purchase it in individual cases still involves a choice about value and expected benefits.

As to your general investment question, I consider myself in roughly the same position as you, not because of a single windfall but just because I made a lot of money early in my life through a variety of fortunate consulting agreements and other such things, and I have extremely low expenses. As others have suggested, the reason that ordinary financial advice doesn't quite fit in this situation is that nearly anything can let you meet your financial "goals" because those goals are so easy for you to meet. So, for example, it would be fine to keep your money in FDIC-insured bank accounts or in US Treasuries; there is no reason to think that's a bad approach. That would amount to a 100% allocation of your money to cash or short-term bonds (which may as well be the same thing). You could equally well justify a 90% allocation to cash and a 10% allocation to stocks if you wanted to improve your chances of having a little more money over the long term; same for 80%/20%, 70%/30%, ... and so on, including 30%/70% or 20%/80% cash/stock. You can substitute longer-term bonds for short-term bonds and cash because, mathematically, that tends to increase average returns over the long term, but that's a relatively minor optimization overall. The choice between stock/bonds/cash is yours, and it depends mainly on the risk you're willing to take, the reasons for taking the risk, the timeframe for the risk, etc. Because any particular allocation is likely justifiable and should meet your goals (given at least the facts about your life as you've stated them), it may simply come down to which you're most comfortable with psychologically. I am inclined to sign onto the advice that someone else gave you: leave your money in cash (e.g., an FDIC-insured savings account) for the moment and keep reading and thinking about it.

If you want to buy and manage rental properties or use money to set up a business, that's a different type of decision; that's about using money and skill to set up or purchase business assets. Then, you have a decision about how much to invest passively and how much to risk in a personal business venture. The decision is different in several ways because it's about how you spend your time, what you enjoy, etc. Personal business ventures tend to be riskier, too, as a statistical matter than the total stock market because the risk is not diversified.

The consistent advice you'll get here, which is very persuasive once you consider the argument from all sides, is simply that regardless of the amount you choose to invest and the percentage of stock/bond/cash allocation you choose, you should aim to get the average returns from the maximally diversified versions of the asset classes you've picked (stocks, short-term bonds, etc.) at the lowest possible fees, because anything else is statistically wasteful.
John Laurens
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by John Laurens »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:24 pm
John Laurens wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:11 pm Bizarre that your living expenses are $450 dollars per month and you want to get them lower yet you are considering paying much more than that per month for an advisor.
fair point. i'm not willing to pay alot for an adviser. i was considering those guys for 1 to 1.5%, but they aren't gonna get my money. i was just considering them cause i have to probe all options. vanguard for 0.3% or the robos for 0.25% still seems reasonable so i have not ruled them out yet.

i also find it equally bizarre you guys are so hard about manager fee's and obsess about 0.0X% expense ratios but are willing to throw money away on insurance.
Saving the 25 basis points of a Robo Advisor on a million dollar portfolio increases your standard of living by 30% based on your monthly expenses.

Health care debt is the number one cause of bankruptcy, so I don’t see health insurance as a waste. In fact, Bogleheads tend to debate the value of overweighting SCV or International equity exposure, etc. We don’t debate basic health care coverage. I don’t really see you being able to glean anything helpful from Bogleheads if health insurance is a non starter.

Regards,
John
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

shout out to panine and aspiringboglehead.

after talk about CD's i started looking around and found 3.25% for 2 years and 3.51% for 5 years. isn't the return for bonds right around this rate? if so, why not skip bonds and park that 20% allocation in to CD's?
mortfree
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by mortfree »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:58 pm shout out to panine and aspiringboglehead.

after talk about CD's i started looking around and found 3.25% for 2 years and 3.51% for 5 years. isn't the return for bonds right around this rate? if so, why not skip bonds and park that 20% allocation in to CD's?
I was going to suggest to use CDs earlier. Especially since you’re not quite sure about bonds.

Go for it.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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John Laurens wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:47 pm We don’t debate basic health care coverage. I don’t really see you being able to glean anything helpful from Bogleheads if health insurance is a non starter.
lets not debate it and stay on topic then. i don't have to agree with everything in order to learn something. to be quite honest i have already learned quite a bit from you guys.
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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mortfree wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:03 pm I was going to suggest to use CDs earlier. Especially since you’re not quite sure about bonds.

Go for it.
i like your enthusiasm but i have to analyze the pros and cons before i make a decision. i know whats up with CD's but don't know enough about bonds to drop them that quick. i know bonds are considered less volatile, but they still aren't guaranteed like FDIC. if a company becomes insolvent it's a complete loss for the holdings in that company. i know some tax exempt bonds i don't have to pay tax on dividends but i'm not sure what the dividends and growth look like. if the growth is around 3.5% and i'm getting dividends on top of that wouldn't that put bonds on top? what else am i not seeing about bonds?
mortfree
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by mortfree »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:11 pm
mortfree wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:03 pm I was going to suggest to use CDs earlier. Especially since you’re not quite sure about bonds.

Go for it.
i like your enthusiasm but i have to analyze the pros and cons before i make a decision. i know whats up with CD's but don't know enough about bonds to drop them that quick. i know bonds are considered less volatile, but they still aren't guaranteed like FDIC. if a company becomes insolvent it's a complete loss for the holdings in that company. i know some tax exempt bonds i don't have to pay tax on dividends but i'm not sure what the dividends and growth look like. if the growth is around 3.5% and i'm getting dividends on top of that wouldn't that put bonds on top? what else am i not seeing about bonds?
I do not have a good feel for bond funds. So in my 401k I have a good amount in Vanguard Wellesley since that has a good amount of bonds.

In taxable I have started adding VTI.

I do have individual stocks that I bought many years ago before I knew of this site (Apple, google, Sirius XM and Berkshire Hathaway).

I also have a good amount of cash in CapOne and I pay extra on my mortgage (rather than accumulate bonds).

Age 42 and right around 75:25 stocks to bonds.

You could do something like 50% VTI, 20% CD and 30% cash until you fully commit. And it gives you some flexibility and time to do your research while your money is doing something.
Mister A
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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Tax-exempt bonds usually won't make sense for you if you are still in a low tax bracket. You'll find that the yields are risk-adjusted on the assumption of a relatively high tax-rate making them break even with taxable bonds.

Note that with corporate bonds, total defaults are unusual. A default may just mean delayed payment or some other restructuring of the debt. Still, if you buy a bond fund you will hold hundreds of different bonds and won't need to worry about individual issuers very much.

CDs are a perfectly sensible approach, too. You're mainly just giving up flexibility, but if you have enough capital to build a working bond ladder to keep you going, more power to you.

Personally, I think that seems needlessly conservative - to say the least - if your time horizon for this income is something like half a century and your needs to draw on it are as small as you say.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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Mister A wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:33 pm CDs are a perfectly sensible approach, too. You're mainly just giving up flexibility

Personally, I think that seems needlessly conservative
i really don't like the lock in on the CD's but to be fair bond funds aren't meant to be cashed out quickly so it's very close to being the same thing, conservative buy and hold play. i only see three differences. risk, dividends, growth potential. risk favors the CD's. don't know enough about dividends to make a decision yet. growth potential seems to be the same. can anybody correct me and point me to a higher yield bond fund?
aspiringboglehead
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by aspiringboglehead »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:11 pm but don't know enough about bonds to drop them that quick. i know bonds are considered less volatile, but they still aren't guaranteed like FDIC. if a company becomes insolvent it's a complete loss for the holdings in that company. i know some tax exempt bonds i don't have to pay tax on dividends but i'm not sure what the dividends and growth look like. if the growth is around 3.5% and i'm getting dividends on top of that wouldn't that put bonds on top? what else am i not seeing about bonds?
It may be helpful to say a few things about bonds; some of these things may be obvious, but their implications could be different from what you might have expected:
  • There are many different types of bonds. For example, bonds can be issued by the federal government, state and local governments, and companies. (State and local government bonds are interesting primarily for people who want their tax benefits; if you don't want those because you're in a low federal bracket, you can probably just ignore them.)
  • Also, companies have widely different credit ratings: there are some company bonds that, particularly when you pool them into a diversified fund, expose you to extremely little "credit risk" - i.e., risk of default. There are others are are big gambles.
  • And bonds have different durations; the shorter ones are much more like cash, particularly if they are Treasury bonds.
  • So, for example, the fund VUSXX pays about 2.4% today and is based entirely on very-short-term Treasury bills. If you're getting 2.45% in an FDIC-insured account, there may be no reason to look at that fund, except that its payout is ordinarily exempt from state tax.
  • Bonds aren't expected to "grow" the way stocks do; they are meant either to pay interest on "coupons" or to grow on a schedule from a discounted amount to a face-value amount. If you buy a bond from the issuer, you don't get the upside of investment growth; you get your money back plus interest, unless the issuer defaults. If you buy bonds in the secondary market -- i.e., from those who have bought them from the issuer, or from their successors -- you can sell them for more than you paid, but that is generally just speculation. You can of course also sell them for less than you paid. Doing that is largely a matter of betting on short-term fluctuations in interest rates (and, usually to a lesser extent, market perception of the safety of a company).
  • The general direct comparison between bonds and CDs involves looking at Treasury bonds of the same duration as CDs. For example, Treasury might have a bond that expires in x years, and you can compare that to an x-year CD. Both are guaranteed by the federal government, and apart from extremely minor details that you can ignore, they are exactly equally "safe." Sometimes CDs do better than the matching Treasury bonds; sometimes they do worse. This is just the result of minor market variations. It's absolutely rational to switch between them based on the current market rates. Owning Treasury bonds in this way is more or less equivalent to having CDs and is different in some ways from a general allocation of money to "bonds" in a portfolio, because you're not exposing yourself to (and getting the statistical benefit from) credit risk.
  • Broadly diversified bond funds may improve your statistical return without adding much statistical risk. This may be a relatively minor consideration. But it wouldn't be crazy, say, to keep half of your money in cash and CDs and then put half of it into the Vanguard Wellesley fund, which will give you a modest managed exposure to stocks and bonds with an eye toward generating present income but also capturing some long-term growth. As I suggested before, I don't think there's a clean theoretical solution to the question of what's "best" for you in the abstract; a lot will depend on your comfort level with specific choices. So, for example, 75% in cash and CDs/Treasuries and 25% in Vanguard Total Stock Market would be equally justifiable, as would 100% in cash/CDs. It might help to leave your money in cash for the moment and follow particular hypothetical investment portfolios for a year to see if you're happy with the daily and yearly gains and losses.
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bluquark
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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The lock-in effect of CDs and the interest rate risk that can cause bond fund principal to go up or down is in a theoretical sense two sides of the same coin. A bond fund is like a very finely sliced CD ladder which can be resold on the secondary market.
can anybody correct me and point me to a higher yield bond fund?
Sure, here are Vanguard's two highest-yielding bond funds: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VWEHX and https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vegbx . They get yield primarily from credit risk. Other high-yield bond funds that you may find get yield from interest rate risk, sometimes amplified with leverage (e.g. PIMCO's bond funds work like this).
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chessknt
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by chessknt »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:33 pm
chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:23 pm Not only that he doesn't have auto either and he drives. I guess he can make 450/month working at Walmart in the future quite easily once his money is taken by collections or a lawsuit
careful with those assumptions. i never said i don't have auto insurance. maybe i was referring to full coverage? maybe i have limited liability? maybe i live in a state where you don't need insurance on 2 wheel vehicles? maybe i don't drive?

i can appreciate your thought process though. gives me something to think about.
I didn't make any assumptions. You said you drive a prius and that someone else can pay auto/health insurance.

Your reasoning about homeowners being reasonable but health is not is illogical. Your health is far more valuable than your home and far far more likely to financially ruin you but youve convinced yourself otherwise. Not sure what the point of the maybe this or that was? I've said my peace.
FoolMeOnce
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:43 pm
FoolMeOnce wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:39 pm Why home insurance?
it's too big of an investment to gamble with. if you live in an area with natural disasters that is another thing to consider.
Isn't your current bank balance now to big of an investment to gamble? A curable disease that could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars is probably more likely than a house burning down. And, regarding other potential liabilities, you are now a target with deep pockets.

In the other hand, if you can live happily on $450/month, bankruptcy might not be something worth insuring against. Losing millions won't really affect you.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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aspiringboglehead wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:55 pm Bonds aren't expected to "grow" the way stocks do
i know bonds are basically just loans. but for total market bond funds, isn't the fund expected to grow or is the interest/dividends your only gains?
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

bluquark wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:56 pm Sure, here are Vanguard's two highest-yielding bond funds: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VWEHX and https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vegbx.
lulz appreciate the links but those are higher risk bonds. if i buy bonds it's cause i want to add some safety to my portfolio. would probably be a total market bond fund. so far the only ones i have seen are between 2-3% which doesn't make sense when compared to a CD.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by aspiringboglehead »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:15 pm i know bonds are basically just loans. but for total market bond funds, isn't the fund expected to grow or is the interest/dividends your only gains?
That growth comes from interest and dividends; the total-market bond funds generally buy bonds when they're issued and hold them to maturity. There are fluctuations in the funds' NAV (price) that can last a while, though, usually from changes in the interest-rate environment. But owning a bond fund at Vanguard is generally like buying a large number of bonds and holding them until they mature.

With funds that hold very long term bonds, you may see some "growth" (even if you hold the fund for a long time) if interest rates fall, but really what that amounts to is getting the benefit of a higher interest rate that you locked in earlier. The same things happens to CDs that trade in secondary markets. (Some CDs can be bought and sold just like bonds.)
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by aspiringboglehead »

As another way to look at it, you can sell a long term bond (or bond fund, or CD) at a "gain" if interest rates have fallen, but the reason for that is that you're giving up the higher rate that you locked in the past. Your proceeds from the "gain" would then be invested at the new, lower interest rates.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:01 pm
smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:33 pm
chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:23 pm Not only that he doesn't have auto either and he drives. I guess he can make 450/month working at Walmart in the future quite easily once his money is taken by collections or a lawsuit
careful with those assumptions. i never said i don't have auto insurance. maybe i was referring to full coverage? maybe i have limited liability? maybe i live in a state where you don't need insurance on 2 wheel vehicles? maybe i don't drive?

i can appreciate your thought process though. gives me something to think about.
I didn't make any assumptions. You said you drive a prius and that someone else can pay auto/health insurance.
EDIT - you are correct, i did say i drive a prius. :oops: i see where you were coming from. saying let them collect from the next guy is just me saying i think the insurance game is a racket and i don't believe in what they are selling. thats not exactly the same as saying i drive without auto insurance.
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:12 pm, edited 13 times in total.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark »

I mean, yield and risk always come together. The bond funds that yield similar to a CD are similarly risky as a CD. There wouldn't be 207 billion dollars invested in Vanguard Total Bond if it didn't make sense.

It's not like a CD is risk-free. The main risks are interest rate risk and inflation risk for both CDs and US government bond funds.
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

bluquark wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:38 pm I mean, yield and risk always come together.

It's not like a CD is risk-free. The main risks are interest rate risk and inflation risk for both CDs and US government bond funds.
i know, but those are junk bonds and emerging market bonds which have higher risk. if i buy bonds it's to add less risk to my portfolio. if i want more risk i will just stick to equity.

i can swallow rate risk and inflation risk. when i think risk i think losing my money. that's not something i have to worry about with CD's. if you guys can show me a 4% high quality bond fund, i'm in. for anything 3% a CD sure does seem better.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

i just realized it's 10pm. i've been reading wiki google and this thread since i got up. my brain is fried and i'm not thinking straight. i need to rest. thank you for all the responses. even the ones we don't agree about. all feedback is appreciated.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by EnjoyIt »

So you like upfront and bold. You have peeked my interest. Here is some to the point advise:

1) [Start paying attention and read the wiki --admin LadyGeek] on this forum. That is a good start and will answer many of your questions. Here is a link:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

2) You plan on living a comfortable and frugal lifestyle on the wealth bitcoin created for you. Kudos to you. Here is a link that explains what you want to do in simple terms:
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05 ... etirement/
feel free to check out that forum as it is more geared to your lifestyle choices and they are more comfortable at calling you a dumbass if/when you are one.

3) Don't be a fool and get free ACA health insurance. The entire cost of the insurance will be free for you because you don't really have much of an income. One bad healthcare event will cost you a large chunk of your fortune and it is worthwhile protecting yourself just as one would protect their home. Only a fool would go without insurance when it costs them nothing.

4) If you are smart enough to come here, able to read, able to do simple math, then you are capable of managing your own fortune without paying for an advisor. If you must have an advisor use Vanguard's at 0.3%

5) If you really want to learn and get into the weeds of early retirement you can check out this very long and very informative series by early retirement now:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/ ... t-1-intro/
It has 35 parts...eeek....This will give you just about everything you ever wanted to know about living off your wealth.

6) Stop asking questions until you read everything. You are wasting everyone's time as well as your own.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by aerosurfer »

[quote=smoothnobody
If you guys can show me a 4% high quality bond fund, i'm in. for anything 3% a CD sure does seem better.
[/quote]

IOFAX multi sector bond

High(er) expense ratio, but strong past performanc
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by G3VALD1G »

With low/no income you should easily qualify for Medicaid. No need for Medicare over 65 if you qualify for Medicaid. In my state it really doesn't matter hours many assets you have to qualify. Only income matters.

Based on the info you provided, you could easily make ends meet between welfare, section 8, Medicaid, food stamps, EIC..... And even invest the change.....

Why you need the hassle and headache of this windfall is beyond my understanding....

It's a nice thread very informative..
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by jharkin »

mnnice wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:00 pm
chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:18 pm
smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:56 pm
chessknt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:33 pm What if instead of a chronic illness you just have a really bad acute fixable illness that is fully recoverable? The most common ones are auto/pedeatrian accidents but what if you get a bad kidney infection or have a heart attack or an appendicitis? Uninsured these bills will be in the six figure range and none of your post tax assets are protected from collections.
i'm not gonna waste big money trying to fight it. i will accept whatever nature has in store for me. i will donate everything long before i give it to the medical field.
Not sure if trolling but that is essentially an insane perspective. Even the most extreme religious sects in the US against medical care still seek interventions for things like this but you already said this isn't a faith issue. You'll die of appendicitis like a someone in the 1500s instead of pay a surgeon to save your life? Why? If you could trade 150k for 30 years of life you'd say no thanks?
It’s also probably bull. I have been around people with acute appendicitis on two occasions. At a certain point point the pain would bring even the most medical phobic to dial 911.
I’ve experienced it first hand. In the moment it hurts so bad you can’t even think straight, you can’t stand up straight, and just want them to stop doing tests and send you to surgery.

Only time in my life I was ever given actual morphine, that’s how bad it is.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by jharkin »

smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:05 pm
panine wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:56 pm if you put a million dollars in cds getting around 2.5%, you're making around $25,000 interest, no? if you can live off of $15,000 and add the unused $10,000 to your million dollar principal, seems like that's livable to me.
i think the rate would be closer to 3.5% but the point you are trying to make is a good one. with big money all in CD's i can live the rest of my life and not have to worry about the market. that's not as fun though and i know i can do better in the market. this is probably the risk taker and greed in me that's speaking cause to be honest the CD play sounds smart.
You are making an assumption CDs will continue to pay 2.5% indefinitely. As recently as 5 years back CDs barely yielded 0.5%... and they will probably drop as low again in the future, as soon as the next recession hits and the Fed starts slashing rates.

All rules of thumb like “4%” assume the future will exactly mirror the past, but a lot of smart people (including our late benefactor) think that the future holds lower growth prospects than the past....
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by jharkin »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:12 pm
smoothnobody wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:43 pm
FoolMeOnce wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:39 pm Why home insurance?
it's too big of an investment to gamble with. if you live in an area with natural disasters that is another thing to consider.
Isn't your current bank balance now to big of an investment to gamble? A curable disease that could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars is probably more likely than a house burning down. And, regarding other potential liabilities, you are now a target with deep pockets.

In the other hand, if you can live happily on $450/month, bankruptcy might not be something worth insuring against. Losing millions won't really affect you.
Not to mention that if he gets into an accident and injures the other driver he could end up being sued for 6-7 figures in medical and property damage, along with facing criminal penalties for uninsured driving.

The odds of an auto accident are so much higher than the odds of a big homeowner claim...I’d go without home ins long before I’d go without auto.

We are probably arguing in circles however, most states won’t even issue a registration without proof of insurance so I suspect he is just being deliberately vague on this point for privacy reasons.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by onourway »

I’m willing to give it to you straight as well because in your attempt to not give us the full picture you are tripping over yourself and in the end revealing quite a lot. We don’t know who you are. You would get much better advice if you would just be up front and honest with us the way you say you prefer to deal with other people. It’s pretty clear that the number you are talking about here is nothing a large portion of the members here aren’t used to dealing with.

So.

I don’t believe your $450/month in expenses. You own a car and you own property. You clearly have Internet access and have at least a small affinity for tech. Even if you don’t pay a mortgage you have basic utility costs, property taxes and maintenance. You have admitted to having property and auto insurance. Even if you subsist on $5/day worth of food, that’s $150/month. The bare minimum to keep a vehicle going long-term, including insurance and maintenance is close to $200. With your homeowners insurance and utilities and Internet access and so on you are easily at your quoted number and you haven’t paid for anything else - nothing. Your number is undoubtedly low, but we have seen a thousand people come by this site and try and tell us what their expenses are when they have no real idea. You are 1001.

Don’t go without health insurance. You say you have homeowners because the risk of loss is so high. That tells us two things. One, that your home is worth a reasonable sum in relation to your windfall. (Which reinforces the points in the above paragraph). Two, that you recognize the concept of Tail-Risk. The tail-risk of going without health insurance is FAR greater than going without home-owner’s. With assets of your relatively modest size you could be wiped out by a relatively minor accident or sickness.

You absolutely do not need a professional money manager. These firms positively salivate when someone like you walks through their door. Their speciality is not in managing investments. Rather, it is in keeping the illusion alive that managing a large sum of money is scary and difficult and you can’t possibly do it yourself because you might make a big mistake and lose it all and then how would you feel? They are little more than con-men. With your dis-trust of people in general, money managers should be just about #1 on the list of people you trust the least. We would suggest you go with Vanguard because they were founded on the antithesis to that idea. Vanguard is about giving the regular, small investors a fair shake. You can go to other brokerages and find some good products, but it’s not their core mission. They are about profit first, customers second.

Lastly. Do not go with a service like Wealthfront or Betterment. They likely appeal to you because they are ‘techy’ and look to be ‘solving’ some of these problems with the financial industry. For someone in your position they would likely be a disaster. Their methods tend to create extremely complex portfolios that, in a taxable account such as you have, become exceptionally difficult to un-wind without incurring a major tax hit. They also are still in their venture-capital stage, where fees are low because they have plenty of incoming funds to prop up their operations while they gain new customers. They have already had some major price hikes. There will be more when they have enough fish on the hook and the venture capital dries up. They have also been known to change their entire investment philosophy when it suits them, and in some cases, moving portions of existing customers assets, who did not explicitly opt-out, from the standard ‘passive index portfolio’ they thought they were getting into a complex ‘risk-parity’ portfolio that is more expensive and likely to under-perform. Exactly the opposite of someone who thought they were getting into a hands-off operation should be asked to evaluate.

As you can tell, people here are more than willing to help you out and give you straight talk and the best advice we can collectively give you. Do us a favor and be straightforward and honest with us.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:26 pm 1) [Start paying attention and read the wiki --admin LadyGeek] on this forum.

3) Don't be a fool and get free ACA health insurance. The entire cost of the insurance will be free for you because you don't really have much of an income.

6) Stop asking questions until you read everything. You are wasting everyone's time as well as your own.
[(removed) --admin LadyGeek] BTW you guys can stop with the wiki. i've already read it. i know what the philosophy is around here. i know what the 3 4 and lazy portfolio is. i know about buying broad market and holding long term. i know about emotions and trying to time the market. i know who john bogle is. he died a few weeks ago. the wiki was nice but my favorite part was this..... If you want to see the greatest threat to your financial future, go home and take a look in the mirror. that right there is wisdom.

not 100% sure, but i'm pretty sure i don't quality for free health care. i had it, but i got dropped cause i moved to a state with no state income tax. the change of location caused me to get dropped. when i tried to reapply in my new state i was told i don't qualify cause i have assets.

i like to ask questions. i am reading everything. i spent 12 hours yesterday reading everything you guys put in front of me. anybody who feels i am wasting their time can go waste it somewhere else. nobody is forced in to my thread.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

G3VALD1G wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:45 am With low/no income you should easily qualify for Medicaid. In my state it really doesn't matter hours many assets you have to qualify. Only income matters.

Why you need the hassle and headache of this windfall is beyond my understanding....
this is why i previously said i'm not 100% sure if i qualify. when i applied last year my income was through the roof. this year is going to be down in the gutter. i will have to poke around some more to see what they are looking for, income or assets.

to be blunt, i know i'm lucky. i know i have more than most. i am trying to make wise decisions. but the truth is this "windfall" is both a blessing and a burden. i liked being a nobody. i had no cares in the world. now i have to pay taxes and stress about what to do with it and myself. it's not even just about what to do with it it's also how to protect it both from myself and others.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Wiggums »

smoothnobody wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:08 am
to be blunt, i know i'm lucky. i know i have more than most. i am trying to make wise decisions. but the truth is this "windfall" is both a blessing and a burden. i liked being a nobody. i had no cares in the world. now i have to pay taxes and stress about what to do with it and myself. it's not even just about what to do with it it's also how to protect it both from myself and others.
Do you have some charities you would like to donate some money?

After three pages of responses, you can see that it is really hard to help you without specific details. Perhaps you should ask a specific question when you are ready.

Good luck to you.
Last edited by Wiggums on Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

jharkin wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:41 am We are probably arguing in circles however, most states won’t even issue a registration without proof of insurance so I suspect he is just being deliberately vague on this point for privacy reasons.
bingo!!! looking back i already regret saying a few things. example, the suggestion of saying inheritance instead of bitcoin was a really good suggestion. i also have a habit of speaking before i think and later regret what i said so i like to be vague when possible. whether you guys are on point or way off mark i will play the devils advocate just so i can see where it goes.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by LadyGeek »

smoothnobody wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:53 am the wiki was nice but my favorite part was this..... If you want to see the greatest threat to your financial future, go home and take a look in the mirror. that right there is wisdom.
For reference, that quote is here: Bogleheads® investing start-up kit - Bogleheads (Avoid common behavioral pitfalls)
smoothnobody wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:08 am this is why i previously said i'm not 100% sure if i qualify. when i applied last year my income was through the roof. this year is going to be down in the gutter. i will have to poke around some more to see what they are looking for, income or assets.
Since you've done all the reading you can possibly absorb in a short time, I think it's time for the next step. How about putting that reading to practice?

Take a look at this: Asking Portfolio Questions

It's a template designed to do 2 things: (1) force you to organize what you already have and (2) give us the information we need to help you.

In this thread, try posting what you have in the "Asking Portfolio Questions" format. Leave areas that don't apply to you blank, then fill in the rest as best you can. Remember this is an anonymous internet forum. We truly cannot tell who you are or where you live (listing your state would be helpful), so please be honest with the numbers.

One of your questions can be "Do I qualify for Medicare?". We can help you with that.

If you don't understand something, don't hesitate to ask for help.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

Wiggums wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:21 am Do you have some charities you would like to donate some money?
world wildlife foundation and world food program seems to be a magnet for me. i love the furries and my dad always made sure i was fed even way past the age he should. when he died i really missed and appreciated that so much more. there is something powerful about feeding people.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Wiggums »

smoothnobody wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:29 am
Wiggums wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:21 am Do you have some charities you would like to donate some money?
world wildlife foundation and world food program seems to be a magnet for me. i love the furries and my dad always made sure i was fed even way past the age he should. when he died i really missed and appreciated that so much more. there is something powerful about feeding people.
Those are wonderful organizations and they would put the money to good use.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:24 am For reference, that quote is here: Bogleheads® investing start-up kit - Bogleheads (Avoid common behavioral pitfalls)

Since you've done all the reading you can possibly absorb in a short time, I think it's time for the next step. How about putting that reading to practice?

Take a look at this: Asking Portfolio Questions

If you don't understand something, don't hesitate to ask for help.
it's ironic that quote is in the behavioral pitfalls section. thanks for pointing that out. now that it's a new day i'm able to process and reflect better and i'm thinking about some of my own behavioral pitfalls. being a [smart aleck --admin LadyGeek], sparring with people who throw shots at me, or make incorrect assumptions about me. it's funny cause in the real world i am pro at conflict avoidance and being passive but when i get online i get frisky. i'm assuming most of you guys know i'm more playful than combative.

i've already looked at that portfolio questions. most of it does not apply to me. some of it is too personal or too difficult to answer. almost everything that can be answered has already been addressed.

i like you lady. i like the guy that told me [to start paying attention --admin LadyGeek] and don't waste his time with questions too. i've got a thick skull and sometimes i need you to talk to me like that. but i appreciate the warm and delicate touch too!!!
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody »

Wiggums wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:37 am Those are wonderful organizations and they would put the money to good use.
i know. the other thing i've had to think about is a will. most of my family is dead. i don't really want to give the few who remain anything. instead of spending the money on myself i just want to be comfortable and give the rest away. the thing is though i feel like that's not enough or that's just taking the lazy road to good deeds. i would like to do more than hand out money.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by nolesrule »

smoothnobody wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:49 am

i've already looked at that portfolio questions. most of it does not apply to me. some of it is too personal or too difficult to answer. almost everything that can be answered has already been addressed.
The format is set up that way for a reason. As long as you don't provide information that allows people to track you down in real life, it's not too personal because it's not tied to a real human being.... just an anonymous post on an internet forum that might as well be fiction. It really is the best way to get questions answered though, and it might help you get the answers to those things that are "too difficult to answer". There's nothing more special about you than the other hundreds and thousands of people, including myself, who have come to this forum for advice.
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