bitcoin guy wants to stock market

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smoothnobody
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bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:46 pm

i did good with crypto and now i'm trying to figure out what to do with a good chunk of change. i'm early 30's not working and don't want to work. i already bought a home and have investments in peer to peer lending REIT's and robo advisors. (betterment wealthfront fidelity schwab) i've been looking at managed accounts for the rest. JPmorgan suggested 100% US dividend stocks. fidelity suggested 60% bonds 40% US dividend stocks. vanguard suggested 50% bonds 30% US stock 20% international stock. schwab suggested thomas partners income strategy. i don't know where my money will go with thomas partners and i don't like that.

don't want the management fee's to be the deciding factor but it is something to consider. fidelity fee is 1.5%. JPmorgan 1.4%. schwab 0.9%. vanguard 0.3%. vanguard is the clear winner but it's mostly a robo account. wealthfront and betterment do it for 0.25%. vanguard also recommended all vanguard funds. wealthfront and betterment don't have their own funds and pick whatever they feel is best. right now that seems to be a mix between vanguard and schwab.

not sure how i feel about bonds. i understand balanced portfolio but still not sold on bonds. income generating funds seem more interesting. the reason income strategies keep coming up is because i'm unemployed. i'm not a market guy so i like the idea of a managed account just not sure if the fee's are worth it. considering pouring more cash in to the robo advisors. regardless of the fee's i still have to figure out what my strategy is. right now i'm in the most aggressive allocations with my robo advisors.

thoughts? thank you.
Last edited by smoothnobody on Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

runner3081
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by runner3081 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:20 pm

Read up on the 3-fund portfolio and be done.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:34 pm

welcome to the group.

Start here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

What do you mean by "I'm not a market guy so I like the idea of a managed account just not sure if the fee's are worth it". I'm not sure how these thoughts are connected (or not). By "not a market guy" do you mean you don't want to own 10,000 different companies of different size and style, in every sector of the market in 40+ countries around the world without having to actively manage (make buy/sell decisions)? What's wrong with that? Who wouldn't want that?

repost according to this:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_ ... _questions
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:44 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:34 pm
welcome to the group.
thank you!!! :sharebeer

not a market guy means i''m a nub with limited experience and wisdom. just got started last year. unfortunately got in a few days before feburary dips happened. i saw december coming and got out october. right now the bulk of my assets is in cash earning 2.45% with CIT. i know i can do better but analysis paralysis is kicking in and not sure what my next move should be. i like the idea of professionals who watch the market every day handling my investments but the fee's seem steep and counter productive. trying to figure out if i should eat the fee's, pump the robo's, or buy my own funds. buying my own funds is obviously the most cost effective but i don't have the required knowledge to make wise decisions.

was reading wiki for 3 fund approach. turns out i already have most of the recommend funds with my robo accounts.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:56 pm

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:44 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:34 pm
welcome to the group.
thank you!!!

not a market guy means i''m a nub with limited experience and wisdom. just got started last year. unfortunately got in a few days before feburary dips happened. i saw december coming and got out october but right now the bulk of my assets is in cash earning 2.45% with CIT. i know i can do better but analysis paralysis is kicking in and not sure what my next move should be. i like the idea of professionals who watch the market every day handling my investments but the fee's seem steep and counter productive. trying to figure out if i should eat the fee's, stick with the robo's, or buy my own funds. buying my own funds is obviously the most cost effective but i don't feel i have the required knowledge to make wise decisions.

was reading wiki for 3 fund approach. turns out i already have most of the recommend funds with my robo accounts.
not only are the fees counterproductive, but it's actually counterproductive to believe that "professionals who watch the market every day" will actually outperform the market as a whole over the long term.

There's tons of evidence (I'm a bit short on time) one study I believe by Moubissan that showed that investors who checked their portfolio's daily greatly UNDERPERFORMED those who only checked once a year. It's been said that a portfolio is like a wet bar of soap. The more you handle it, the smaller it gets.

You must disabuse yourself of the notion that professional money managers add value above and beyond the market. As a group, they mathematically can not because they are the market. Therefore before fees in aggregate money managers will perform average. After fees, they will underperform the market. If you buy index funds you will get the return of the market minus fees which is much closer.

Read this to see why:
https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/ ... active.htm

Also you've got to avoid market timing. "I saw december coming and got out october..." Really? You got a crystal ball? If so, why ask us for advice? You got lucky. That's all. Nothing more nothing less. Just like with bitcoin. That being said, investing is not about getiting in and out of the market. It's about buying and holding for the long term. Do you know Warren Buffett? He's said his favorite holding period is "forever". He's not a market timer and he's done pretty well being a buy and hold investor.

Read more here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Market_timing
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:15 pm

most would assume money mangers who dedicate their life to their craft should do better than people who don't know the difference between ETF bonds and mutual funds. i get the point you are trying to make though. they don't always outperform the market, they often perform close to the market, and after fee's you may end up with less than the market. this much i am aware of and it's why i'm questioning it.

i don't have a crystal ball. i did get lucky. but i also felt it some how. call it intuition beginners luck or whatever. it worked out for me, this time. i'm not going to try to time the market going forward. even my CFP at swab said nobody can do it consistently and he himself tried it and was terrible at it. i've also spent a good deal of time talking to vanguard about the merits of holding and not getting emotional. only reason i pulled out october is because i was reckless and just started buying stuff on my own with little research. february was a lesson i didn't fully recover from and i didn't wanna stick around for december. going forward if i'm more confident in my decisions i will just hold and not obsess over the daily movements.

appreciate the tips and links. i will read up.

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greg24
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by greg24 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:51 pm

You should absolutely let fees help make the decision. Fees are one of the few things you can control in investing.

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:56 pm

help make the decision, i agree 100%.

let it be the deciding factor, still debating this in my head.

example, i want to remodel my home. complete gut job. the labor is more expensive than the materials. i'm tempted to learn and do as much as i can for myself. but i know better than to mess with sensitive stuff i have no experience with, electrical and plumbing. i have to pay up or risk a disaster. isn't my financial future just as sensitive?

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:02 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:56 pm
help make the decision, i agree 100%.

let it be the deciding factor, still debating this in my head.

example, i want to remodel my home. complete gut job. the labor is more expensive than the materials. i'm tempted to learn and do as much as i can for myself. but i know better than to mess with sensitive stuff i have no experience with, electrical and plumbing. i have to pay up or risk a disaster. isn't my financial future just as sensitive?
Yes and the advisor wants you to help his sensitive future.

teamDE
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by teamDE » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:04 am

I'd encourage you to take a few days to read up on the wiki and the forum. :sharebeer

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:08 am

i'm on it. keep the feedback flowing. all input is appreciated.

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bluquark
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:11 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:56 pm
help make the decision, i agree 100%.

let it be the deciding factor, still debating this in my head.

example, i want to remodel my home. complete gut job. the labor is more expensive than the materials. i'm tempted to learn and do as much as i can for myself. but i know better than to mess with sensitive stuff i have no experience with, electrical and plumbing. i have to pay up or risk a disaster. isn't my financial future just as sensitive?
Yes, but the difference is there is no such thing as investment expertise. Bernstein has said that everything known for certain about investment can fit into 5 books or so, whereas for any other field that would run into the thousands of books. So you get what you don't pay for.

A better analogy is if you have a life-threatening infection and you can cure it with an expensive brand-name antibiotic or a cheap generic. They're exactly the same so even though your life is on the line, get the generic.
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Raymond
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Raymond » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:15 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:56 pm
...but i know better than to mess with sensitive stuff i have no experience with, electrical and plumbing. i have to pay up or risk a disaster. isn't my financial future just as sensitive?
White Coat Investor had an article about "financial advisors":

"Financial Advisors Aren’t Doctors"

I would expect that an electrician or plumber had enough real training and passed meaningful examinations to get their licenses.

Many "financial advisors" are trained only to sell whatever gives them the biggest commissions and makes the most money for their companies - what's good for the customer is in third place, if it's even on their radar.

By the time you learn enough to be able to pick a good adviser, you already know enough to manage your own investments.

I always think of the "F*** the clients" scene in The Wolf of Wall Street :greedy

[Edit] I forgot to add a .pdf many others have recommended: "If You Can"
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:24 am

i've done some reading about commission vs fee based advisers. CFP's have a fiduciary responsibility. i know this doesn't necessarily equate to whats in your best interest, but it's something. do CFP's get any kickbacks for new money/accounts? thought they were strictly salary based for ethical reasons.

one of the things i've noticed is fidelity/schwab/vanguard/JPmorgan all put their own funds in front of me. i didn't like this. this is one of the reasons i like wealthfront/betterment. they don't have their own funds they appear impartial and mix it up with what they think is best. 0.25% seems pretty reasonable too.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:35 am

In deciding whether a fee like 0.25% is reasonable, the right way to think about it is to multiply it by the total amount of your life savings and look at that absolute dollar amount. That is the salary you are paying them every year for their services.

Some people start pretty tolerant of high fees and some people start by obsessing over every basis point. Usually when you put it this way, the tolerant people blanch at just how much it actually is, and the basis-point shavers realize they were kind of putting too much work only for a few hundred dollars here and there.
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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:44 am

when i first started looking around i thought 1.5% sounded reasonable. when realized it's not 1.5% of gains and did the math i changed my mind real quick. 0.25% does sound reasonable at this point in my journey. that's $250 for a whole year of service per 100K managed.

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bluquark
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:21 am

Yeah, it’s in the middle range of fees where opinions can differ. Just keep in mind that’s charged on top of the ER for the underlying funds.

Actually, the cheapest “advisers” are all-in-one funds called stuff like Balanced or Target Retirement. For example, Vanguard target retirement funds have an ER of 0.15%. The underlying holdings can be held separately for about half that ER, so it’s like a 0.08% “advisory fee”.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by jibantik » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:33 am

My advice to you would be to do pretty much the opposite of everything you think.

Fees are practically the only thing that matter,
don't time the market,
get back in the market and don't get out of it,
don't "invest" in bitcoin,
don't pump the robos.

To be fair, I don't know what the last one means, but it doesn't sound good. :D

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:41 am

if i did the opposite of what i think i would keep my money in my 2.45% FDIC savings.
fee's are practically the only thing that matters is taking things to the extreme. i don't like them either but lets not get carried away.
bitcoin changed my life. i got in at $20 and sold at 15-17K. BTC and ETH is a buy right now. just don't buy what you aren't prepared to lose.
pump the robos meant giving more money to my robo accounts / digital advisers.
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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bluquark
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:46 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:46 pm
not sure how i feel about bonds. i understand balanced portfolio but still not sold on bonds. income generating funds seem more interesting. the reason income strategies keep coming up is because i'm unemployed. i'm not a market guy so i like the idea of a managed account just not sure if the fee's are worth it. considering pouring more cash in to the robo advisors. regardless of the fee's i still have to figure out what my strategy is. right now i'm in the most aggressive allocations with my robo advisors.
The point of bonds is to avoid sequence of return risk. Let’s say the stock market crashes tomorrow by 50% and only recovers 15 years from now. Which is the kind of thing that happens all the time, stock index return is only near-guaranteed-positive for 30+ year timeframes. Although your timeframe is longer than 30 years, the problem is as an early retiree, you need to spend money every year to fund your lifestyle. And if you’re 100% stock you’re forced to sell stock every year even though their value is depressed. By the time the stock market recovers, you can’t fully take advantage so this temporary dip caused a permanent loss.

If you have bonds, your total portfolio goes down proportionately less when the crash hits, and this problem is reduced. On average, you will earn less return the more bonds you have, but the worst case sequence of return that can cause your retirement plan to fail is also avoided.

If you still plan to earn income from a job or business, going heavy stock is OK, as this is really only a problem for people living off their portfolio. If you live off your portfolio, then 20 to 40 percent bonds would be appropriate IMO. (I would not go higher than 40 percent bonds — you also need return as your retirement will be very long.)
Last edited by bluquark on Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by HomerJ » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:49 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:41 am
bitcoin changed my life. i got in at $20 and sold at 15-17K. BTC and ETH is a buy right now.
Why don't you just keep investing with bitcoin? You apparently timed it perfectly. If you're that good, why stop?

Serious question. I'm interested in hearing your answer.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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bligh
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bligh » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:52 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:44 am
when i first started looking around i thought 1.5% sounded reasonable. when realized it's not 1.5% of gains and did the math i changed my mind real quick. 0.25% does sound reasonable at this point in my journey. that's $250 for a whole year of service per 100K managed.
If 0.25% sounds reasonable to you a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund will sound like an absolute steal at 0.13-0.15%
Pick the one that suits your risk/bond preference and go with it.

mortfree
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by mortfree » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:54 am

You are overthinking things.

If you go to Fidelity of course they are going to list their funds as the choice. Same with Vanguard etc.

The point being made is you need to decide what you want to invest in. Then do your best to keep fees low.

If you do the three fund approach or some variation that will help to decide what firm to invest with.

I use VTI (Total US Stock ETF).

As far as advisors who study the market. In most cases their job is to extract money from you.

My favorite quote is “where are the customers yachts”. Meaning that the advisor may have the fancy cars, boats etc but their customers do not. The customer helped to pay for those.

Keep as much of your money as you can.

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:56 am

i see the purpose of bonds. right now i only have a limited amount in these robo accounts so i'm more willing to take the risk. when it comes to the bulk of my assets i will definitely have bonds just not sure my allocation yet. i seem to get so many mixed messages it's hard to make up my mind. i hear you need a balanced portfolio. your young you want to push to beat inflation. you have no job you need income generating funds.

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:01 am

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:49 am
Why don't you just keep investing with bitcoin? You apparently timed it perfectly. If you're that good, why stop?

Serious question. I'm interested in hearing your answer.
diversification. don't want all my eggs in one basket. crypto can go to zero just as quick as it did 17K. need real world money too.

just to make sure we are on the same page, i never said i was good. i don't think that either. i made a decision and got lucky.

bligh wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:52 am
If 0.25% sounds reasonable to you a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund will sound like an absolute steal at 0.13-0.15%
Pick the one that suits your risk/bond preference and go with it.
i'm actually looking at this right now. just heard about them from one of the links provided. thanks for the tip. it's sad my vanguard CFP did not mention them. this is why i decided to post here. need some wisdom from people who aren't trying to sell me something.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bluquark » Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:23 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:56 am
i see the purpose of bonds. right now i only have a limited amount in these robo accounts so i'm more willing to take the risk. when it comes to the bulk of my assets i will definitely have bonds just not sure my allocation yet. i seem to get so many mixed messages it's hard to make up my mind. i hear you need a balanced portfolio. your young you want to push to beat inflation. you have no job you need income generating funds.
Yeah, I struggled with this a lot myself, and still do to some extent. I recommend Bernstein's book *The Ages of the Investor* to give you a framework for reasoning about it instead of just using rules of thumb (which yes, some of them contradict the other ones). The other thing you should read is the SWR series on earlyretirementnow.com, which is one of the only good resources for retirees younger than 50 years old.
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by mortfree » Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:58 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:01 am
bligh wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:52 am
If 0.25% sounds reasonable to you a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund will sound like an absolute steal at 0.13-0.15%
Pick the one that suits your risk/bond preference and go with it.
i'm actually looking at this right now. just heard about them from one of the links provided. thanks for the tip. it's sad my vanguard CFP did not mention them. this is why i decided to post here. need some wisdom from people who aren't trying to sell me something.
Life strategy is not really tax efficient so that may be why it was not recommended.

In addition I would guess that the recommended funds have an even lower ER than life strategy.

You want the professional advice but you are still skeptical. Keep reading and researching. You will figure it all out

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by fujiters » Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:49 am

I recommend a 3 fund portfolio. Since you are not currently employed, you will not have to concern yourself much with tax efficiency (you neither have a 401k, nor earned income to fund an IRA, and a taxable account on its own will not create much of a tax liability unless your account is very large).

I would not hold a balanced fund. 3 funds are still easy to manage, and you get the benefit of making it easy to rebalance for more tax efficiency later, like if you later are able to contribute to a 401k/IRA/403b, or just because you later decide that you want a different allocation than your originally chosen balanced fund provides. This flexibility is also why I would not recommend a robo-advisor. It may make it very difficult to unwind your holdings if you later decide you need/want to do that (see some of the previous posts on leaving robo-advisors).

You may want to consider having a HDHP to enable you to contribute to an HSA, assuming you have a decent HDHP option available.

Continue reading and learning about investment until you feel comfortable. This will not take long. I recommend starting with "The Bogleheads Guide to Investing" (we are Bogleheads here, after all :) ), and following with "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet". You may decide at that point to continue and articulate why a 3 fund portfolio does not appeal to you, but I also doubt that you will come to the conclusion that holding it was a poor decision (even if you end up tweaking it for yourself).
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham

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Sandtrap
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Sandtrap » Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:16 am

Strongly encourage you to post for a "portfolio review request" per link provided by the "esteemed" "arcticpineapplecorp".
Doing so will bring in a comprehensive picture of your status and context to best receive specific actionable suggestions from noteworthy portfolio reviewers.
You can start a new post or enter the format into your original post using the "pencil" icon.
You are more likely to attract the senior forum advisors using the portfolio review format. The format is actionable data oriented so encourages that quality or response specific to you.

1
read: MANAGING A WINDFALL
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall

It might benefit you to step back a bit and get an overall view of things.
These are things you might do in this, sort of, actionable order to brush up on things you already know. . . . and learn a few new things.
You may get a more comprehensive quality end result.

1
Post a portfolio review to clean up, as needed, everything you have right now.
(Be sure to put in the fund names next to the Ticker Symbols) (edit your original post this way.)
Asking Portfolio Questions
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... =1&t=6212
2
Then get, "The Little Book on Common Sense Investing" by Jack Bogle ($14) which is the foundation for everything on this forum.
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... jack+bogle
Suggested Reading List
https://www.bogleheads.org/RecommendedReading.php
Forum Library of Investing Advice with links
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
3
While you are waiting for the book, read this stuff. (you might know more than 90% of most folks when you're done).
Your Toolbox.
GETTING STARTED
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
Bogle Philosophy
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleh ... hilosophy
Here are links to the wiki's "Getting Started" and "Investing Startup Kit" pages:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleh ... rt-up_kit
4
While you are reading the links, start working on this and keep refining it to fit your needs.
Define General Investment Goals and Objectives (what is your plan?)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Invest ... statement
5
Keep reading:
Outline of Investing
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline_of_investing
Outline of Financial Planning (with links)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outlin ... _planning
Funding Priority (what do I do first?)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Priori ... vestments
Tax Efficient Fund Placement
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-ef ... _placement
Asset allocation in multiple accounts
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset ... accounts
Risk Tolerance (what is your "sleep factor"?)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Risk_tolerance
Asset Allocation (what is right for you?) https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
6
While you are doing all this be sure you have this:
Emergency Fund
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Emergency_fund
7
And, read this free booklet.Free Reading: "If You Can" by Bernstein
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j& ... -SB3S580I5
8
When you have a general grasp of basic concepts and post your portfolio review, separate post if needed or edit your original post, then use these tools to keep your funds, etc, in order, etc.

ONLINE FINANCIAL TOOLS
PORFOLIO VISUALIZERS, PROJECTIONS, AND ANALYSIS
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
Firecalc. Retirement. How long will your money last?
https://www.firecalc.com
Morningstar Instant Xray
https://members.morningstar.com/Registe ... L100&vUrl=

This is a general well worn path from start to launch on the way to "Bogleheadville".
I hope this is helpful to you.

Congratulations on your successes, good luck going forward.
j
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

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celia
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by celia » Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:00 am

While you do some reading to help give you some perspective, you need to decide on your goals. Is all the money meant for living expenses for the rest of your life? Do you support family members, such as kids who will go to college in a few years? Do you want to do some “good” in the world with part of the money?

This boils down to how soon should some of the money be available?

If you are married, this should be a joint decision with your spouse.

All of this goal-setting will help determine your Asset Allocation.

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dogagility
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by dogagility » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:00 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:41 am
fee's are practically the only thing that matters is taking things to the extreme. i don't like them either but lets not get carried away.
You've received very good advice upthread.

When you invest in index funds (as you should), fees are one of the three major things that matter... 1) Fees, 2) an appropriate allocation of your money between stock index funds and fixed income (like bond index funds), and 3) staying the course... and not trying to time the market.

First, you need to decide upon the goals for the money you'll be investing. Based upon those goals, choose your asset allocation. Then, choose which index funds to invest in.

Fidelity, Vanguard, and Schwab all have excellent low-cost index funds. If you desire a bit of hand-holding at the beginning, use Vanguard's PAS. When you're comfortable going it alone, drop the PAS. People on this forum will be happy to help you with your decisions (for free) if you post using this format: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asking_ ... _questions
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" -- Warren Buffett

bmelikia
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by bmelikia » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:13 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:41 am
BTC and ETH is a buy right now. just don't buy what you aren't prepared to lose.
A couple of things
1. Then buy BTC and ETH
2. If BTC and ETH are “a buy” right now then why buy what you are prepared to lose? It’s “a buy”. . .right?
3. The lottery can change people’s lives too. . .but that doesn’t make the winners financially savvy individuals. . .it just makes them lucky
"I would rather die with money, than live without it...." - Bogleheads member Ron | | "The greatest enemy of a good plan, is the dream of a perfect plan." | -Bogle

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RickBoglehead
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by RickBoglehead » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:32 am

Until you read the Wiki, any recommendations are wasted, because you don't understand the philosophy of the site.

Total Stock Market Index fund
Total International Stock Market Index fund
Total Bond Market Index fund

Done.
Avid user of forums on variety of interests-financial, home brewing, F-150, PHEV, home repair, etc. Enjoy learning & passing on knowledge. It's PRINCIPAL, not PRINCIPLE. I ADVISE you to seek ADVICE.

chessknt
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by chessknt » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:48 am

We don't know your age but you say you don't want to work. Assuming you live in the US, if you effectively opt to retire in your 30s or younger then you may be in for some surprises.


First you will effectively not have social security and, depending on how long you did have a job etc may even have to pay extra for Medicare.

Second (and maybe you have accounted for this) your Healthcare expenses will be quite high even with an acs subsidy, equivalent to renting a home in many parts of the country.

Third you will never have access to any tax advantaged investing space with no earned income.

Finally we don't know your current expenses or nest egg size, but being in the most aggressive orientation is generally during early accumulation when you aren't using the money and can afford to see half of it disappear, not during drawdown when you have to sell low to fund your expenses.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:00 am

I'm going to give you a bold, specific, clear recommendation. First, I'll tell you that I'm just another working stiff engineer who is enthusiastic in investing.

1) Open a Schwab account. Ask them for whatever bonus they're offering. No management, no fees.
2) Put all of your money into SCHB, which is a large cap ETF. It moves pretty much "with the market"
3) Go find something else to keep you occupied.

What? That's it? No fancy words about rebalancing or market analysis or downside protection or other BS words to draw you in to a bunch of lies? No. The less you screw around with your portfolio, the more you'll make. Having played with crypto, by definition, your risk tolerance is high. Your challenge is going to be to leave this investment the hell alone. Just leave it alone.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

Jags4186
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:31 am

I think we should all stop telling the OP to go “buy more BTC since it’s a buy right now”. It smacks me of being jealous. Believe me OP I AM JEALOUS OF YOU. Congratulations. I wish I could be as lucky as some people. But that would require me being gutsy enough to put some money into some seriously risky speculations. It sounds to me like the OP knows he was extremely lucky and, as we frequently tell people around here, has decided to quit the game. OP, this is one of the smartest decisions you could ever make in your life.

That aside, here is what you really need to know about the stock market. All the returns of everyone combined = the average annual return of the stock market. Since it is almost impossible to invest with no fees whatsoever, that means on average every single person will underperform the stock market by the fees they pay.

If the stock market returns 8% and the average person pays a 1% management fee then the average person will underperform the stock market by 1% getting a net return of 7%.

If a smart person is able to invest the same way but for 0.04% in fees, then that smart person is able to get a 7.96% return!

What’s the difference between these two returns? A $1,000,000 investment earning 7% after 40 years is worth $15 million. That same investment earning 7.96% is worth $21.5 million. That $6.5 million of your money has gone into other people’s pockets. Over a 60 year time period, your likely remaining lifespan, that gulf widens to $35 million. Fees matter a lot.

The next thing to know is that no advisor is able to guarantee beating the market. If they knew how to beat the market then they wouldn’t be advising other people on how to do it, they’d be out implementing their strategy for themselves becoming wildly wealthy.

So yes, you can read up on the 3 fund portfolio, etc. Once you make the decision to jump in its relatively easy to manage. Staying the course can be difficult, but that is a matter of personal fortitude.

What you really should be focused on, IMO, is getting your life in order. You are a wealthy person. You are a target. You need appropriate insurance. You may need a trust. You should be considering what you will do if you get married if you are not already.

FoolMeOnce
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by FoolMeOnce » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:05 am

One thing that hasn't been noted is that with multiple robo advisors doing tax loss harvesting, you may be creating many wash sales. That might be difficult to keep track of.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by Olemiss540 » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:09 am

smoothnobody wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:15 pm
most would assume money mangers who dedicate their life to their craft should do better than people who don't know the difference between ETF bonds and mutual funds. i get the point you are trying to make though. they don't always outperform the market, they often perform close to the market, and after fee's you may end up with less than the market. this much i am aware of and it's why i'm questioning it.

i don't have a crystal ball. i did get lucky. but i also felt it some how. call it intuition beginners luck or whatever. it worked out for me, this time. i'm not going to try to time the market going forward. even my CFP at swab said nobody can do it consistently and he himself tried it and was terrible at it. i've also spent a good deal of time talking to vanguard about the merits of holding and not getting emotional. only reason i pulled out october is because i was reckless and just started buying stuff on my own with little research. february was a lesson i didn't fully recover from and i didn't wanna stick around for december. going forward if i'm more confident in my decisions i will just hold and not obsess over the daily movements.

appreciate the tips and links. i will read up.
Over the long term, a highly diversified, tax effficient, and low cost 3 fund portfolio will outperform 80 PERCENT of portfolios net of fees.

Learn to be happy with 20th percentile performance, build your portfolio around a risk appropriate asset allocation, and then move on to something else. Rebalance once a year. Forget about paying for some salesman's boat.

We dont have anything to gain with out input, just hang around here and read for a few months.
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.

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ohboy!
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by ohboy! » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:24 am

Don’t do any sort of managed or advised investing. There are so many easy choices with very low fees. Even 0 fees!

I recommend you be more specific about your assets here in exact dollar amounts. Maybe you have enough to actually retire. Your anonimity is safe. It’s a lot better to give feedback with exact numbers.

Definitely keep it simple. At any of the brokerages you can do an easy, low fee, 3 fund portfolio. Or you could do a one fund portfolio. You already have real estate. I have Ameritrade and Fidelity. Fidelity has some $0 fee $0 commission funds. That being said I would go with Vanguard. In your position- wanting to invest in the market, I would just buy VTWAX. Buy the world. Free to buy. Leave it. Be prepared for 50% drop and not caring.

My second option would be a target date fund.

Keep it simple. Pick something and stick with it. Keep fees low. That’s Boglehead philosophy and it’s smart investing.

Bogleheads will tell you to go all in. Market is pretty high, that’s scary.

There is a lot of debate how much bonds and if you should have International exposure or only US. Bonds depends on risk and timeline. International exposure, I say yes, hence total world fund.

RobLyons
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by RobLyons » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:29 am

as a point of clarification, how much total did you profit from bitcoin?

I ask for 2 reasons
1) I am in my mid 30s as well, and I couldn't imagine not ever working again, with financial needs aside, for the simple cause of contributing to society, being productive, having something to do, etc. You may be different and that's totally fine. But having the past 9 days of a staycation, with many hobbies and tasks, I couldn't imagine doing this and not working for the next 50+ years..

2) Earning a modest $100k plus benefits for the next 25-30 years would be a lot to "lose out" on, or at least set concerns aside for needing to generate any additional returns besides what you already made. So there would be no thought of needing professional help to maximize returns.


With that aside, I would also recommend you invest in the lazy 3 fund portfolio. VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX


At our age, adjusting for risk, a reasonable split could be something like 60% VTSAX, 20% VTIAX, 20% VBTLX
And this recommendation is in the setting of 20 years of research, day trading, penny stock trading, crypto, basically lots of trial and error. This portfolio will be almost every professional, and almost every investor besides a few lucky ones!

Congrats on the windfall by the way :sharebeer
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

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smoothnobody
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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:58 am

long multi posts incoming, sorry. just want to properly respond to everybody who is kind enough to speak with me.
mortfree wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:58 am
Life strategy is not really tax efficient so that may be why it was not recommended.

In addition I would guess that the recommended funds have an even lower ER than life strategy.

You want the professional advice but you are still skeptical. Keep reading and researching. You will figure it all out
Image

this is where i'm at with vanguard. he originally had me in short term bonds as well but said the yield was around 1.8%. i told him i'm getting 2.45% with no risk why would i want 1.8% - 0.30% fee. he tried to sell me but i kept pushing back. i told him i would be more comfortable spreading the short term bonds in to the intermediate term and long term bonds. after some back and forth he actually agreed with me!!! i was looking at these funds and if you change the graph from YTD to MAX they are all pretty stagnant for 10-15 years except VTSAX. after looking at my robo's i realized this is a different class of VTI which i'm already in with both wealthfront and betterment. the tax sensitive part is interesting but i'm normally in the lowest tax bracket except for 2018 and won't be in the highest again until BTC goes through the roof again. not sure how important tax sensitive is for me. one thing that peeked my curiosity though is he said i pay no tax on the dividends and interest for those bonds.

appreciate the confidence!!!
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by jharkin » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:06 am

You got a lot of good advice, especially Sandtrap's long post of links.

The thing is, you want to drive in and act but you have only given us a small amount of info. If you really are sitting on a windfall large enough to live on for life and have a lot of free time I would suggest that you sit back, leave that money in savings for a month or two and read, read read. In fact I would spend some time and first read though a couple of the beginner books on the reading list:

https://www.bogleheads.org/RecommendedReading.php

Then start to dig though the relevant wiki sections.
And then come back and post using the recommended template and ask for specific recommendations.

You have time... a couple months out of the market wont make a noticeable difference long term, but a couple of snap decisions to invest carelessly could hurt.


EDIT TO ADD: If that last post above is your entire investment portfolio you better start looking for a job. There is no way 100k can support somebody age 30 for life...
Last edited by jharkin on Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:09 am

fujiters wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:49 am
Since you are not currently employed, you will not have to concern yourself much with tax efficiency.
i was thinking the same thing. fidelity originally told me full equity tax loss harvesting SMA. after some reading my determination was if i'm in the 15% long term capital gain rate why would i want to take a 85% loss on my equity to capture a 15% tax deduction. everything i hear is this isn't really any tax savings it's a tax deferment and it's mostly for people who are consistently in the highest tax bracket. people in the 0% or 15% long term capital gain rate benefit very little. even wealthfront and betterment were trying to sell me on their tax loss harvesting features. i turned that [noise] off. i would rather just wait it out for my positions to go back up.

[Edit by moderator oldcomputerguy]

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:15 am

Sandtrap wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:16 am
This is a general well worn path from start to launch on the way to "Bogleheadville".
I hope this is helpful to you.
appreciate the long post with many links. i will start digging through it.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:28 am

celia wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:00 am
you need to decide on your goals. Is all the money meant for living expenses for the rest of your life? Do you support family members, such as kids who will go to college in a few years? Do you want to do some “good” in the world with part of the money?

This boils down to how soon should some of the money be available?

If you are married, this should be a joint decision with your spouse.
this goals question is constantly coming up and i don't know how to answer it. to be honest, i have no goals. i've been a drifter my whole life. i'm comfortable just getting by. the best way i can answer this as of right now is i'm just looking for growth beyond my 2.45%. what the actually plan will be is beyond me as of right now. i'm single, i plan to stay single. i have no kids. most of my family is dead. it's pretty much just me. having money for living expenses for the rest of my life seems like a pretty good goal to have. my living expenses is only $450 a month. my 2.45% savings spits out more than that a month. would be nice to beat that but don't think income should come at the expense of growth. if i could get both, that would change things up quite a bit. i would like to do some good in the world. i've dreamed of doing something non-profit long before i had any means to do it. if i could start a non-profit and make a modest wage doing it i would get off my [behind --admin LadyGeek] and work. this is likely the only situation i am willing to work. how soon will i need the money is also an unknown factor. i don't want to live a long life so planning for a late retirement is not part of my plan.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:46 am

dogagility wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:00 am
smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:41 am
fee's are practically the only thing that matters is taking things to the extreme. i don't like them either but lets not get carried away.
You've received very good advice upthread.

If you desire a bit of hand-holding at the beginning, use Vanguard's PAS. When you're comfortable going it alone, drop the PAS.
believe me, i know it's good advice. but don't you think saying fee's are the only thing that matters is extreme? that seems like tunnel vision. i've watched every episode of shark tank and mark cuban is my second favorite behind kevin oleary. i've watched how people squirm when negotiating the equity and one of the things out his mouth is 50% of a watermelon is better than 100% of a grape. i'm MIGHT be ok with a modest fee if it's below 1%. if a money manager can keep me around 7-10% growth AFTER fee's that doesn't seem so bad. (even though i know it is, i want to keep every penny i can cause of compounding) it's funny how you say use the PAS then drop him. this is exactly what i have been thinking. pick their brain, see where they would park me, then buy on my own. it sounds ruthless, but lets be real, this is my life, i gotta be smart.
Last edited by smoothnobody on Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:55 am

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:32 am
Until you read the Wiki, any recommendations are wasted, because you don't understand the philosophy of the site.

Total Stock Market Index fund
Total International Stock Market Index fund
Total Bond Market Index fund

Done.
i did read alot of the wiki. i understand the philosophy of the site. but i'm not going to run out and drop all my money based on a wiki any more than i will blindly follow the advice of a money manger. i'm going to question and research every step of the way. there is no one size fits all.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by chessknt » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:02 pm

smoothnobody wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:28 am
celia wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:00 am
you need to decide on your goals. Is all the money meant for living expenses for the rest of your life? Do you support family members, such as kids who will go to college in a few years? Do you want to do some “good” in the world with part of the money?

This boils down to how soon should some of the money be available?

If you are married, this should be a joint decision with your spouse.
this goals question is constantly coming up and i don't know how to answer it. to be honest, i have no goals. i've been a drifter my whole life. i'm comfortable just getting by. the best way i can answer this as of right now is i'm just looking for growth beyond my 2.45%. what the actually plan will be is beyond me as of right now. i'm single, i plan to stay single. i have no kids. most of my family is dead. it's pretty much just me. having money for living expenses for the rest of my life seems like a pretty good goal to have. my living expenses is only $450 a month. my 2.45% savings spits out more than that a month. would be nice to beat that but don't think income should come at the expense of growth. if i could get both, that would change things up quite a bit. i would like to do some good in the world. i've dreamed of doing something non-profit long before i had any means to do it. if i could start a non-profit and make a modest wage doing it i would get off my [behind --admin LadyGeek] and work. this is likely the only situation i am willing to work. how soon will i need the money is also an unknown factor. i don't want to live a long life so planning for a late retirement is not part of my plan.
450/month expenses seems unlikely unless you are going without health insurance. Even without it that is far below poverty level.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:04 pm

chessknt wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:48 am
Assuming you live in the US, if you effectively opt to retire in your 30s or younger then you may be in for some surprises.

First you will effectively not have social security and, depending on how long you did have a job etc may even have to pay extra for Medicare.

Second (and maybe you have accounted for this) your Healthcare expenses will be quite high even with an acs subsidy, equivalent to renting a home in many parts of the country.
i know i won't get social security. i haven't put anything in it so far, i don't plan to start now. one could also argue that anybody who "depends" on social security might be in for a few surprises of their own. i don't care about health expenses. if i come down with a potentially terminal or debilitating condition i won't fight it. i'm not planning for the long game. if i can make it for another 30 years i am content.

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Re: bitcoin guy wants to stock market

Post by smoothnobody » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:14 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:31 am
I think we should all stop telling the OP to go “buy more BTC since it’s a buy right now”. It smacks me of being jealous. Believe me OP I AM JEALOUS OF YOU. Congratulations.
bro, thank you. to be honest, i hate talking about. i get so many snotty comments and eye rolls from the CFP's. it's refreshing to hear from people like you. i really don't want anybody to know. but when you got people asking you 20 questions about you your life your finances your goals etc etc it's impossible to hide so i just gotta come out with it cause if i don't there is no way forward for me. one thing i will say though is don't be jealous of me. it doesn't make me happy. it won't make you happy either.

all of the rest of your advice was on point too. thank you for such a thoughtful post. i appreciate it alot.

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