Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

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barb63
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Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by barb63 »

Hi all
WIth the stock market going down.. I would guess that most people are getting hit. I have majority of my retirement investments with Vanguard (just a small amount with fidelity 80K and 53K with Mutual of American in a guaranteed 3% account) I just retired and trying not to take anything out unless I have to but its getting tough. I was just wondering if anyone's portfolio is not going down stable or going up... I would guess if one was all in bonds that might be the case. Just curious how others are doing and guessing I should hold tight like i have in the past but in the past I was working so now a bit more concerned.
My Vanguard account dropped 30K since sept :(
Glockenspiel
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Glockenspiel »

Our portfolio has gone down $43,000 from it's high point earlier this year. I'm still 20-25 years from retirement. Just hold tight, as long as you have enough in safe investments/CDs/or cash to last you the next 2-5 years.
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JoMoney
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by JoMoney »

My bank account is doing fine... so are my U.S. Savings bonds.
Stocks are down a little over the past year, but it's kind of ridiculous to be looking at the performance of stocks over a couple months or a single year period.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Jack FFR1846
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

It completely depends on your AA. My Vanguard account (dev int) went from a high at the start of the year of $325k and is now at $265k, almost to my initial investment of $260k in 2015. But my bond funds are up....my US Savings Bonds are always up. Just did my update this morning and am at $356k. Wife's bonds are up. Yes, total stock, 500, BRK are all down. I'm 50/50 AA and when I look at my total $, it isn't really changed at all. I have been steadily investing between regular 401k deposits and taxable. Maybe I'll take savings bonds for my tax refund in the spring.
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workerbeeengineer
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by workerbeeengineer »

barb63 wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:00 am Hi all
WIth the stock market going down.. I would guess that most people are getting hit. I have majority of my retirement investments with Vanguard (just a small amount with fidelity 80K and 53K with Mutual of American in a guaranteed 3% account) I just retired and trying not to take anything out unless I have to but its getting tough. I was just wondering if anyone's portfolio is not going down stable or going up... I would guess if one was all in bonds that might be the case. Just curious how others are doing and guessing I should hold tight like i have in the past but in the past I was working so now a bit more concerned.
My Vanguard account dropped 30K since sept :(
Likely most here are indeed seeing hits to their portfolio. My portfolio is certainly being hit. What is your asset allocation? Hopefully you previously decided on a safe withdrawl rate and strategy on how/which assets to fund the withdrawls. Bond funds are down with the rising interest rates, but equities usually go down more so (50% in the great recession 10 years ago).
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munemaker
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by munemaker »

Stocks go up; stocks go down. If you have the proper asset allocation, you just ignore it and life goes on.
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goingup
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by goingup »

barb63 wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:00 am I just retired and trying not to take anything out unless I have to but its getting tough.
The advice to not peek is helpful right now. If you're recently retired you're likely paying closer attention to your portfolio than you did while working. If you have safe assets to draw from for expenses that would be good. Also, have dividends directed to your checking account for spending.

Our portfolio is definitely off the highs of the year but I don't want to think about that too much. When year-end statements come out I'll take a look at the results.
Tamalak
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Tamalak »

Yep, my portfolio crossed (backwards) a certain psychological threshhold just yesterday. Gruelling December!
Bacchus01
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Bacchus01 »

Define tanking.

Is it lower than 6 months ago? Yes
Is it higher than Feb? Yes
Is it lower than Jan? Yes
Is it higher than a year ago? Yes

Has it tanked? Not by any of my definitions.
DartThrower
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by DartThrower »

Count me among those whose portfolio has taken a hit. Whether you'd call it "tanking" or not is subjective and full of emotion. I'm down in total about 9% since the peak back in January. Like most Bogleheads I have expected this would happen some day and I feel I am mentally prepared for it as best as possible. The market could get worse or it could get significantly better in 2019, but I strongly feel that by sticking to my stock allocation I will be much better off in 10 or 15 years when I will be depending on the value of the portfolio along with SS to provide a decent income.

The best thing to do now is focus on things we can control. My portfolio is at an allocation that I am comfortable with, and the total costs are around 7 bp. If the market continues to fall I will shift some into stocks from bonds ... but nothing too major. Personally, my weakest point is understanding how taxes work. So I plan to work with an accountant to not just prepare my 2018 return, but to understand what's happening and what strategies make sense for me going forward. For example Roth conversions in early retirement. I am also considering delaying retirement one extra year. As things stand today I don't need to delay but it's an option and it's something within my control.
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UpperNwGuy
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by UpperNwGuy »

The answer depends on two things:
1. Your asset allocation. The higher the ratio of stocks to bonds, the more the portfolio has tanked.
2. What date you use for your baseline. If you use August 2018 as a baseline, the portfolio has tanked. If you use August 2017 as a baseline, it hasn't.
Lynette
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Lynette »

.....
Last edited by Lynette on Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Lafder
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Lafder »

I just looked last night and recalculated my asset allocation.

Our overall holdings are down about 10% from the all time high earlier this year............so I thought it could be a rebalancing opportunity to sell bonds and buy stocks slightly on sale.

But our asset allocation is still within my goal area so no need to rebalance. Our stocks were slightly higher than my ideal, but also not in a rebalancing band months ago. So now it is closer to my goal which is 65/35 stocks to bonds, and 30-40% of stocks International.

As long as the asset allocation is within a few points, I change nothing.

But I can not deny that I get a knot in my stomach to see a drop more than I have put in over the past year............

It is making me think of moving to 60/40 as a goal..........but I am only trickling new money in that won't make a difference fast. I have already been buying just bonds for some time as my stock allocation was high due to market performance.

lafder
timewarp
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by timewarp »

Market is not "tanking". Market is fluctuating.
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Mr. Potter
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Mr. Potter »

My sister has an option/benefit at work which allows her to contribute up to a years salary every year into an employee savings account which pays a guaranteed 4.5%. Her AA is 40/stocks 20/bonds and 40/employee account. She is probably slightly ahead or near even for the year. Honestly if I could have a guaranteed 4.5% I would go all in at this point in my life.
LiterallyIronic
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by LiterallyIronic »

Mine's not "tanking" per se. Because my balance is still low, in the $60k range, my monthly contributions are still keeping me at pretty much the same balance. I think we went down a little between November 1 and December 1 (I only check the balance on the first of each month), but not down by enough for me to call it "tanking."
neilpilot
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by neilpilot »

I wonder how the OP will react if and when the market does actually tank.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Sandtrap »

As other's have astutely noted:

1. Market is not "tanking" . . . it's fluctuating.
2. Don't peek.

Yes. It is "tanking" . . . .
What prevents me from peeking:
What allows me to sleep:

1. Diversification of retirement income streams.
2. Diversification of fixed via: CD Ladder, treasures, etc.
3. Allocation that "almost" fits my "sleep factor".
4. Solid IPS.
5. Understanding of "Bogle Basics".
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
tea_pirate
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by tea_pirate »

My portfolio has overall been pretty flat since the market "peak" in September. I'm up 58% YTD. Then again I'm a newish investor with a small portfolio, so my contributions are large relative to the size of my portfolio. Pretty much the trend seems to be I add money to my investments, and it gets eaten by the daily dips. Then my next contribution goes in and gets eaten, etc.

I don't really care about this dip. Hopefully I feel the same when I have more money.
Shallowpockets
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Shallowpockets »

Anyone who isn't taking a hit is a magical investor. Overall I am only up, as of the weekend, .51%. That is including dividends, long and short term capitol gains on which I am taxed. So once I am paying those taxes it whittles the overall gain/loss further.
Therein lies the rub. Because it is not simply the negative numbers on paper of a loss to the holdings, but it is real taxes out of my pocket.
Presently I am picking apart my prospective tax return for 2018 and figuring where I can take enough losses to offset those taxable gains.

If it is consoling to you, the market was up about 20% in 2017, so go ahead and average that over the two years and you are ahead 10% from start of 2017. More or less.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Taylor Larimore »

tea_pirate wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:29 am My portfolio has overall been pretty flat since the market "peak" in September. I'm up 58% YTD. Then again I'm a newish investor with a small portfolio, so my contributions are large relative to the size of my portfolio. Pretty much the trend seems to be I add money to my investments, and it gets eaten by the daily dips. Then my next contribution goes in and gets eaten, etc.

I don't really care about this dip. Hopefully I feel the same when I have more money.
tea_pirate:

It is very unusual to have a portfolio up "58% YTD." You should be a fund manager. Care to tell us how you did it?

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by CyclingDuo »

barb63 wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:00 am Hi all
WIth the stock market going down.. I would guess that most people are getting hit. I have majority of my retirement investments with Vanguard (just a small amount with fidelity 80K and 53K with Mutual of American in a guaranteed 3% account) I just retired and trying not to take anything out unless I have to but its getting tough. I was just wondering if anyone's portfolio is not going down stable or going up... I would guess if one was all in bonds that might be the case. Just curious how others are doing and guessing I should hold tight like i have in the past but in the past I was working so now a bit more concerned.
My Vanguard account dropped 30K since sept :(
If one is diversified across domestic, international stocks and bonds - yes, everyone has experienced a drop consistent with their allocation and what the markets are doing. Always a good time to make sure your asset allocation is one that you can tolerate as well as one that will meet your goals for the longer term.
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Toons
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Toons »

It us up in quantum fashion
Since I started in 1980.
Do yourself a favor and
try to keep thinks in at Minimum
a 10 year time frame.
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
barnaclebob
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by barnaclebob »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:38 am
tea_pirate wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:29 am My portfolio has overall been pretty flat since the market "peak" in September. I'm up 58% YTD. Then again I'm a newish investor with a small portfolio, so my contributions are large relative to the size of my portfolio. Pretty much the trend seems to be I add money to my investments, and it gets eaten by the daily dips. Then my next contribution goes in and gets eaten, etc.

I don't really care about this dip. Hopefully I feel the same when I have more money.
tea_pirate:

It is very unusual to have a portfolio up "58% YTD." You should be a fund manager. Care to tell us how you did it?

Best wishes.
Taylor
It sounds like they included contributions in that 58%.
tea_pirate
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by tea_pirate »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:38 am
tea_pirate wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:29 am My portfolio has overall been pretty flat since the market "peak" in September. I'm up 58% YTD. Then again I'm a newish investor with a small portfolio, so my contributions are large relative to the size of my portfolio. Pretty much the trend seems to be I add money to my investments, and it gets eaten by the daily dips. Then my next contribution goes in and gets eaten, etc.

I don't really care about this dip. Hopefully I feel the same when I have more money.
tea_pirate:

It is very unusual to have a portfolio up "58% YTD." You should be a fund manager. Care to tell us how you did it?

Best wishes.
Taylor
Sorry Taylor, I meant the net value of my portfolio (so including contributions) and not just my investment returns. I prefer to look at this metric rather than the returns of my underlying indices (total US stock, total international stock) at this stage of my investing career.
SchruteB&B
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by SchruteB&B »

Kind of? I consider my children’s 529 portfolios separate from the rest of my portfolio, and as my oldest is in college and youngest soon will be, they have a very conservative allocation. Oldest kid has almost everything in a money market that has 1.5% ytd and a stable value fund that has 2.29%. So it hasn’t tanked at all. Of course it didn’t make a ton of money the last few years either!
Last edited by SchruteB&B on Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Watty
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Watty »

My 2015 target date fund is down 2.94% year to date.

For those of you still in the accumulation phase having the market dip is actually a good thing since you can buy stocks at a lower price so it is actually to your advantage as long as you are a long way from retirement.

Last year it was up 8.47%.
jacksonm
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by jacksonm »

My tax-deferred IRA is mostly stuffed with long bonds, cash, and gold for my permanent portfolio with just a little bit of stock. It has pretty much stayed the same all year.

As for the stock heavy accounts, I haven't gotten up the nerve to look yet.

(Oh, and BTW the reason I hold those assets in the tax-deferred account is because I thought they would have the lowest growth potential and wanted to minimize my RMDs which will start next year. Looks like that didn't work out as expected.)
Last edited by jacksonm on Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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22twain
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by 22twain »

Let's see... with an allocation of about 45% stocks, I'm down 6.3% since the beginning of October, down 3.6% since the beginning of this year, and up 7.6% since the beginning of last year, when I retired. This includes withdrawals of about 1% per year.
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GibsonL6s
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by GibsonL6s »

First off, this is not tanking. If you bought on the highest day of this year today you are down 12%. Stocks do what they do, no risk no reward.

But to answer you question, I am sure somewhere there is some one who moved to cash, hedged their portfolio, shorted the market, or bought inverse ETFs. But, none of this matters, what matters is your experience and having an AA you can live with. If this minor blip is bothering you, you may have too much exposure to stocks.
Texanbybirth
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Texanbybirth »

I guess this might be when it's helpful to have such a small portfolio: our monthly contributions mean the balance keeps going up even as the market goes down, on an absolute dollar value basis at least. Being over 30 yrs from retirement, I don't care to peek at returns right now. :D :beer
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Nate79
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Nate79 »

The market is down by about 14% from the peak. That's not tanking but certainly not a nice Christmas present.
stocknoob4111
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I've lost about $45k over the year, everyone is getting hit, but hopefully we will be fine in a year or two. Meanwhile it's time to keep investing to pickup equities cheaper.
ge1
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by ge1 »

I have a fairly conservative portfolio and I'm sure I'm down 100k from the top.

In my 40s, so I actually welcome these periods of market weakness where I can buy stocks at lower prices.

As others pointed out, it helps me to think about my net worth progression year-over-year - and net worth is still up this year due to significant savings.
SerenityBlue
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by SerenityBlue »

I check my portfolio once a day just to see how it's doing and gauge my reaction. While it does pinch me to see the value of my portfolio smaller, the AA % difference between the stock vs bond AA is still much lower than my 5% threshold that would trigger a rebalancing to occur. My only regret is having maxed out my 401k tax-deductible contributions a couple months ago to take advantage of the market but then it quickly passes as I remember I'm still contributing $$ to our Roth IRAs and an individual brokerage.
cdu7
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by cdu7 »

People’s portfolios are going down? :wink:
frugalmama
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by frugalmama »

It has gone down quite a bit...and I have been buying more :). I look at these as buy opportunities. I'm not a conservative investor (not entirely index funds but mostly...but asset allocation is high in stocks) and have a very high risk tolerance so I sort of see this as funny money as I don't feel I need it. I am sure that will probably change as I get closer to retirement.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by BrandonBogle »

LiterallyIronic wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:23 am ... my monthly contributions are still keeping me at pretty much the same balance. I think we went down a little between November 1 and December 1 (I only check the balance on the first of each month), but not down by enough for me to call it "tanking."
tea_pirate wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:29 am ... Pretty much the trend seems to be I add money to my investments, and it gets eaten by the daily dips. Then my next contribution goes in and gets eaten, etc.

I don't really care about this dip. Hopefully I feel the same when I have more money.
I remember this experience in 2008 and like you, it didn't phase me (and I wasn't even a Boglehead yet). I just kept chugging away and saving b/c I thought "If I was cool with buying stocks at $100/share, why am I not ok with doing it at $90/share?". Fast forward ten years and the past few months, when I update my spreadsheet to check my numbers (only b/c of IRA contributions and quarterly employer matches and bonus contributions that may trigger a rebalancing need), I see the numbers have gone. When I looked over the weekend, I saw I was down by almost my entire year's salary from my peak. I thought "Oh, it went down $XXXXX. Ok." and went about my day. I didn't even hit a rebalancing band yet.

So keep up the good work, don't worry about it, and hopefully you do feel the same down the road.

That said, I feel for the Op b/c some of my lack of angst above is b/c I am in my 30s and have years (decades?) of contributions to put into my account before retirement, so today's numbers don't really phase me. I think I would be ok at retirement, but I'm sure I would feel it a bit more than I did this past weekend.
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Will do good
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Will do good »

I check my portfolio twice a year, July 1 and Dec 31. I have a general idea how much up or down during any given high or low days. Right now I guess I'm down about 2-4% for the year, but have been way up for the past 5 years, so why worry? I'm well within my IPS range. But if goes much lower than I might sell some bonds and buy equities during AA rebalancing. For me investing for retirement is a long game, I don't track it too early or often.
staythecourse
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by staythecourse »

barb63 wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:00 am Hi all
WIth the stock market going down.. I would guess that most people are getting hit. I have majority of my retirement investments with Vanguard (just a small amount with fidelity 80K and 53K with Mutual of American in a guaranteed 3% account) I just retired and trying not to take anything out unless I have to but its getting tough. I was just wondering if anyone's portfolio is not going down stable or going up... I would guess if one was all in bonds that might be the case. Just curious how others are doing and guessing I should hold tight like i have in the past but in the past I was working so now a bit more concerned.
My Vanguard account dropped 30K since sept :(
Probably not the best time to bring this up, but the problem is NOT the market's volatility. The problem looks like poor planning ahead of retirement. Why EVERYONE does not keep x amount of money aside to take care of monthly liabilities for 5 years in principle stable investments (MM, CD, TIPS, Ibonds, etc...) is beyond me.

If you had 10 years of principle stable investments then the rest in stocks would you care if the market was tanking if it only affected the portion of money meant for long time horizon needs? Probably not. LMP should not be an option, but the STANDARD/ DEFAULT way an retiree should be investing. Just so these situations do NOT happen.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
MathWizard
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by MathWizard »

I'm down about 6% from the peak, but only 3.6% since last year at this time.

This actual amount of drop from the peak just looks really large because of
a large portfolio as I near retirement.
bgf
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by bgf »

i think im down like 10% ytd. with contributions though, my balance is only a smidge below jan 1 2018.
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Golfview
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Golfview »

munemaker wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:26 am Stocks go up; stocks go down. If you have the proper asset allocation, you just ignore it and life goes on.
Simply stated!
cpan00b
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by cpan00b »

I am down about $25,000 from the peak in September 2018.

I started investing in April of 2017 and am cumulatively down on my life time investments now a total of -5.04% which is just about -$10,000 of the $201k I've contributed. Sucks but it's just the way it is and I wish I started in 2012 and rode it all the way up during the good years.

I'm 100% equities with 70-30 total US and total international (a lesson I learned from all this is I plan to switch to a 90-10 allocation once the market starts riding back up to guard against the next time this happens). In the mean time, I keep contributing 100% of my after expense income weekly regardless of what price stocks are at on Fridays. Thoughts?
JBTX
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by JBTX »

From its highest point, we are down 4-5%, but that includes some additional savings. Maybe down 5-7%? That doesn't particularly bother me.
Last edited by JBTX on Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
StringTheorist
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by StringTheorist »

You get a higher long-term return from equities precisely because they have a higher risk of declining in any given year. But this is not 2008, so don't panic.

My portfolio is down but way up from where it was 5 years ago. My retirement is essentially invested in the S&P500 with a skew towards technology and a few individual names that I like based on my own personal research. My personal picks outperform the rest of the portfolio but they're too concentrated to form more than a small allocation of my retirement capital (I keep them to less than 10% of the portfolio).

Equities are not a good investment choice if you need short-term access to the funds.
Smoke
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by Smoke »

My CD's are doing just fine.
Arguing for the sake of arguing is something I am not going to engage in.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Unless you are 100% cash or even short selling the market. I said earlier this year, the tree won't grow forever to the sky. We had longest bull since 2009. I would bias toward more conservative AA (40/60) at the moment and wait out a major market correction. I might be wrong but at least I would be safe. In this market, it is more important not to lose money than making money. Good luck.
StringTheorist
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Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:14 pm

Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by StringTheorist »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:58 am Unless you are 100% cash or even short selling the market.
My biggest peeve with tax-advantaged retirement accounts is you're essentially forced to go long the market because of the rules against leveraging which effectively eliminates all forms of shorting.
pkcrafter
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Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:19 am
Location: CA
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Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Post by pkcrafter »

I guess I can't see how anyone's portfolio is "tanking."

Total stock market is down -3.76% YTD, and up 5.6% for past 12 months.

Total International is down 14.20 YTD, but it's a smaller allocation than U.S. TSM in most portfolios. I'm retired with an AA of ~50/50, which means there is really nothing to get excited about except the usual noise, which investors should not be listening to.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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