Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

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videocrafters
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Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by videocrafters » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:19 am

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
If it were me, I'd get right back in. Today. Time in the market counts, and if you were to get back in today, you'd certainly be no worse off than if you hadn't sold.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Tamarind
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Tamarind » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:20 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:19 am
videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
If it were me, I'd get right back in. Today. Time in the market counts, and if you were to get back in today, you'd certainly be no worse off than if you hadn't sold.
+1. Resist the urge to market time. Buy your new allocation immediately.

J295
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by J295 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:22 am

If it were me I'd get back to my intended allocations.

Teague
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Teague » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:22 am

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
If any of us knew how to time the market like that, we'd be replying to this question from our private jets.

Personally, I'm replying from a 10 year old computer sitting on a recycled desk.
Semper Augustus

RickBoglehead
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by RickBoglehead » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:24 am

Next Monday, at 1:47PM is the right time to get back in. Ask me how I know.

As far as whether 12/3 was a good day to sell, I'd say it was 2 months late, but hindsight is 10% down, I mean 20/20.

onourway
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by onourway » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:25 am

If you get back in today you look to realize an immediate 6% gain on US stocks. Perhaps you will do better if you wait. But you could do a lot worse.

I don't like sitting on the sidelines.

RadAudit
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by RadAudit » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 am

Ah, the market timers' dilemma. Now that you've sold, when to get back in? The answer is now; but, be sure you choose an asset allocation that fits your need, ability and willingness to accept the risks necessary to meet your goals. Then stay the course.

I've had the same AA for more than a decade - but, looking back, it's been an easy decade to stay on track.

Best of luck.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The calvary isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

MittensMoney
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by MittensMoney » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:33 am

Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.

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whodidntante
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by whodidntante » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:53 am

We are simple folk. Try another forum for predictions. /r/investing has shown to be right almost half the time.

btenny
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by btenny » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:14 pm

For now I would stay on the side lines. You have already gone to cash. You seem really scared about the market and do not know you sleep at night allocation. You need to figure out that AA before investing. Most here are OK with 40% to 80% stocks but we are older and have weathered many big market crashes and learned to "stay the course" and stay invested. We do not jump in and out as we have no idea when to get back in or when to sell and wait. The steady approach produces the best investing results for us. But is is harder as you have to live with market down turns and loosing money like we are doing now.

So find your sleep at night AA and then get back into the market.

Good Luck.

livesoft
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by livesoft » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:15 pm

If you get back in NOW, then you will have made more money than the person who did not sell on 12/3/2018, so that's an automatic win.
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260chrisb
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by 260chrisb » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm

My portfolio is "solid" as well. Sorry, I couldn't resist. The time to get back in isn't next Monday at 1:47, it's next Thursday at 2:13. You're in the wrong place my friend. You've been on for two months. Have you not been watching? It's okay to be in cash but don't expect growth. How old are you? Do you have sufficient funds for it not to matter? Have you done this before? Have you not seen this before many times? Why do you want to get back in?

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ruralavalon
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:58 pm

Who knows? My guess is that now is a good time to get back in the stock market.

But I have no idea if tomorrow, or next week, or next month, or next year might be a better time.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WanderingDoc
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:02 pm

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
You won't get a lot of encouragement or backup for what you did here. However, I am in definite agreement with what you did. I would do something similar if I cared about preservation of this investment. I still may do so.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

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Alexa9
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Alexa9 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:05 pm

I would dollar cost average back in to a conservative allocation if you're even seriously debating this.

metalworking
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by metalworking » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:42 pm

I did this once with a much smaller amount in my retirement account and put it right back into the market. Fidelity emailed me and said I had made a "round trip" and if i did it again that there would be issues with that account. Just FYI.

staythecourse
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by staythecourse » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:51 pm

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
Hope less experienced reader have read this and noted how BAD of a move this was/ is. One sold everything (ultimate market timing move even professionals don't do) AND have no plan and what to do next.

When making moves like this one should ALWAYS think, "Would I be doing this if the market was done well?" If the market was up 10% for the year I doubt the OP would have done anything this drastic nor should anyone else.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

TheAccountant
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by TheAccountant » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:54 pm

What the OP just did is a great example of what not to do with your retirement portfolio.

Flyer24
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Flyer24 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:56 pm

It looks like from your other thread that you are about 70 years old. I hope that you have a very conservative allocation at that age.

Beehave
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Beehave » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:25 pm

What a perfect time to go back into the market! With all of the uncertainties about trade wars, geopolitical strife, and inflation/deflation it is the ideal time to get a realistic grip on your risk tolerance and put in place an allocation plan to stick with. Tomorrow all could be rosy on these fronts and the Dow up 2500 points. Or bad news could drop the market sharply. At this time you face risk and reward squarely and seemingly about as equally as possible. Whatever allocation your stomach can take now is probably an allocation good for you for the long haul.

My opinion, best wishes.

averagedude
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by averagedude » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:31 pm

There are many indivudual investors that sold out in 2009 at market bottoms and are still sitting on cash because they haven't found a perfect time to get back in. They missed perhaps the best bull market in their lifetimes.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:58 pm

MittensMoney wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:33 am
Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.
That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.

Market timing doesn't work. Everything you or the OP knows about Trump/China/yield inversion everyone else knows. You don't have a secret insight into the market based on that.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

GibsonL6s
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by GibsonL6s » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:48 pm

Does sold it all mean it was all stocks. If so if this is a tax deferred account buy a single target date fund with the aa you are comfortable with and move on your day.

chevca
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by chevca » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:52 pm

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. Any thoughts?
Move to the simpler, lazy portfolio then.

You were invested before. Get invested with your wanted lazy portfolio. Don't wait around or try to time anything. KISS

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sergeant
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by sergeant » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:22 pm

Our AA was down to 30/70 from 50/50 over the past several months due to a settlement sitting in Prime MM and another huge chunk also in Prime MM for a possible second home down payment. We keep most of our stock allocation in my 457b account. My former employer is changing providers and the new provider offers a 4.25% stable value fund. I went all SV a few days ago for the transition which has a 3 week blackout period so I'm in a similar position as OP.

In the next week or so when I get a minute I will get us back to our desired AA by increasing equities in our IRA's and DW's 457b. I will do this regardless of what is going on with Mr. Market.
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user5027
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by user5027 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:52 am

With the sitting on the sideline analogy, I was thinking your cash is singing to you...
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calmaniac
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by calmaniac » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:13 am

Actually, rather than ""solid" your portfolio, I think you "liquid" your portfolio. :)

Question: What kind of capital gains did you have? If I sold off my entire portfolio, the capital gains I have in Apple and Microsoft stock from the 1990's would be a huge tax hit.

videocrafters
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by videocrafters » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 am

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...

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calmaniac
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by calmaniac » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:30 am

videocrafters wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 am
I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...
Congratulations!! Sounds like a good plan moving forward.

videocrafters, now that you are close to retirement, one thing for you to start thinking about is how you are going to manage cash flow when you stop working. Your day-to-day life style is driven by cash flow, not by how much money you have invested.

GibsonL6s
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by GibsonL6s » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:31 am

videocrafters wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 am
I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...
Glad to see your were decisive and came up with a sensible AA for you and took action. :sharebeer

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ruralavalon
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:52 am

videocrafters wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 am
I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...
Good move :D . I am happy to see that you did not fall into analysis paralysis trying to guess a good time to become reinvested.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

MittensMoney
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by MittensMoney » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:31 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:58 pm

That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.
He's already in all cash. He asked for thoughts on how to get back into the market.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:48 am

MittensMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:31 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:58 pm

That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.
He's already in all cash. He asked for thoughts on how to get back into the market.
I was asking if YOU were selling everything to DCA in.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:58 pm
MittensMoney wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:33 am
Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.
That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.

Market timing doesn't work. Everything you or the OP knows about Trump/China/yield inversion everyone else knows. You don't have a secret insight into the market based on that.
The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

3504PIR
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by 3504PIR » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:40 am

TheAccountant wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:54 pm
What the OP just did is a great example of what not to do with your retirement portfolio.
How so? It seems that the OP did exactly what people encourage others to do daily on BHs.

RickBoglehead
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by RickBoglehead » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:03 am

So none of the OP's holdings fit what his planned AA is going to be? I find that hard to believe. Selling everything and then rebuying some of it is market timing.

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sperry8
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by sperry8 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:42 am

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
On a smaller scale I'm in a similar situation. Due to incorrect information provided to me by Fidelity reps, I liquidated all holdings in my HSA to transfer to them. Now I'm all cash (unintended) and in Fido and hmmmm. It was never my intent to be out - but here I am. Market is down and I'd say within 24 months the bear will come a calling (if it isn't here already). So I may take the chance and just sit out until it arrives and try to catch the down to re-invest. Understand this is a very small portion of my overall portfolio so it really doesn't matter in the overall scheme whether I'm right or wrong. In the past, whenever I've tried to market time, I've been wrong. Nevertheless, my brain continues to want me to believe its my most important organ and its every thought should be heeded. :oops:

OP - perhaps you could DCA back in? Going in 1/8 every quarter over the next 24 months. My monies in my HSA are too small to bother with that, but if the same thing happened in my total account, I would go back in that way. And to the prior poster who asks, then why not do that now - my portfolio is all taxable so doing that would be imprudent on a cap gains basis. If it were all IRA based - I would likely do it with at least 1/2 my assets.
Humbling BH contest results: 2017: #516 of 647 | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:28 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am
The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.
You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Time2Quit
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Time2Quit » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:51 am

BRK has $100B in cash and Buffett is not deploying it until he finds better value as the Market appears overvalued. It appears he is trying to find a good entry point (Market Time).

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:25 pm

Time2Quit wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:51 am
BRK has $100B in cash and Buffett is not deploying it until he finds better value as the Market appears overvalued. It appears he is trying to find a good entry point (Market Time).
I think it is pretty dangerous to assume that you know what Berkshire Hathaway is doing and how that relates to the individual investor.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:28 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am
The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.
You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.
This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:16 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm
This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.
The people you name, if at all successful in market timing, haver resources well beyond most. If it were that easy, EVERYONE would be able to beat the market. That should tell you something right there.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

WanderingDoc
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Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:21 pm

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:28 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:16 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm
This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.
The people you name, if at all successful in market timing, haver resources well beyond most. If it were that easy, EVERYONE would be able to beat the market. That should tell you something right there.
You haven't answered my question though. How can you qualify or quantify between ordinary and non-ordinary? If the distinction is "one who is wealthy and successful investor" is non-ordinary, no disagreement there. That goes for any talent, skill, or vocation.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

UpperNwGuy
Posts: 1260
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:16 pm

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:53 pm

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?
Get back in immediately. Monday December 10, 2018 would be your first opportunity. Get back in then.

TropikThunder
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by TropikThunder » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:02 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:28 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am
The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.
You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.
This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.
And I can't believe people have to remind you that the "ordinary investor" doesn't do this for a living, and doesn't have the resources or time that Buffet does. How about we use that for the line between ordinary and not? And even then, in aggregate, professional money mangers suck at market timing as much as Joe Ordinary does. Buffet does this for a living, and spends 50-60 hours a week at it with a team of researchers so asking why everyone can't replicate his success is ridiculous.

Most people already have full time jobs, and while you seem to have an abundance of free time to manage your global real estate empire and evangelize about it here, the vast majority of retirement investors don't have the time or interest to do the proper market research. Instead, they react to what they heard on CNBC and find themselves three steps behind the professionals. OP selling out on Dec 3 and getting back in on Dec 6 may have worked, but anyone who thinks it was strategy and not luck is fooling themselves.

chuckb84
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Location: New Mexico

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by chuckb84 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:21 pm

videocrafters wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 am
I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...
Before I knew the word "boglehead" I was one, except for two times. I read "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet" some time around 1992 and one message that really sunk in was "When everyone says "This time it's different", pick up your money and run."

So, I did, twice. More or less, I correctly (or closely) called the top of the dot com bubble, and fled to bonds, almost 100%. I was almost as accurate with the real estate bubble, and was safe in nearly 100% bonds with the meltdown happened. So, I'm a genius and made a mint, right?

Nope. I was waaaaaaayyyy to slow getting back into stocks, both times, and I missed a lot of gains. I think I'm a little better off today in retirement for having done those two moves, but it's 5-10%....maybe.

I did get to be the "smart guy" for water cooler talk at work when my coworkers were mostly getting killed in the market, and that was fun, but long term difference? Not much.

Right now I'm in the Boglehead 3 fund portfolio, 40% US, 20% International, 40% total bond. I don't plan to change anything, except possibly cut down on luxuries if there is a prolonged downturn.

WanderingDoc
Posts: 1297
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:21 pm

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:59 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:02 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:28 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am
The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.
You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.
This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.
And I can't believe people have to remind you that the "ordinary investor" doesn't do this for a living, and doesn't have the resources or time that Buffet does. How about we use that for the line between ordinary and not? And even then, in aggregate, professional money mangers suck at market timing as much as Joe Ordinary does. Buffet does this for a living, and spends 50-60 hours a week at it with a team of researchers so asking why everyone can't replicate his success is ridiculous.

Most people already have full time jobs, and while you seem to have an abundance of free time to manage your global real estate empire and evangelize about it here, the vast majority of retirement investors don't have the time or interest to do the proper market research. Instead, they react to what they heard on CNBC and find themselves three steps behind the professionals. OP selling out on Dec 3 and getting back in on Dec 6 may have worked, but anyone who thinks it was strategy and not luck is fooling themselves.
Not having enough time to be successful (in whatever you value) is typically a sign of lack of control in your life.

Next time you experience the self talk "I don't have time", ask yourself why. If one doesn't have time to be a great investor, that's a choice they made.

You're correct, I have plenty of time for other passions since real estate only takes me a couple of hours per month of my time. I don't do real estate for a living (I spend way more time in the gym as an example), but that doesn't preclude success.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

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grabiner
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Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by grabiner » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:57 am

videocrafters wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am
In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in.
Since you are restructuring your portfolio, you should move back to the same risk level you had before the restructure, and do that as soon as you have figured it out. If 60% of your previous portfolio was stock, you should put the whole portfolio into a balanced fund which is 60% stock if you want a portfolio which manages itself, or put 60% into stock funds and 40% into bond funds if you want to manage your own three-fund portfolio.

For example, if you are a Vanguard investor and you want 60% stock, you could put the whole thing into Vanguard Target Retirement 2025; this fund is 61% stock and will become more conservative over time. Or you could put 40% into Total Stock Market Index, 20% into Total International Stock Index, and 40% into Total Bond Market Index; I would prefer this combination in a taxable account so that you could sell bonds if needed with no tax cost.
Wiki David Grabiner

RIMDBogle
Posts: 87
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:13 pm

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Post by RIMDBogle » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:43 pm

Where did you park the realized CASH/gain after selling your entire portfolio?

Thanks for sharing.

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