Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

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equanimity33
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:32 am

Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

Post by equanimity33 » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:10 pm

I seem to get wildly different results depending on what simulator I use; I'm trying to figure out if that's because simulators that use hypothetical cycles are more conservative than ones that only use historical cycles. Thanks!


equanimity33
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:32 am

Re: Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

Post by equanimity33 » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:20 pm

JW-Retired wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:15 pm
Vanguard has one.
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... ggCalc.jsf
JW
That one would be great except my horizon is longer than 50 years, though perhaps there is little difference between 50 & 70-80 years.

It also doesn't allow for any more complex inputs such as increased spending at a certain age, other income sources, except. I was hoping for a modeling tool as robust as Cfiresim's, but using Monte Carlo simulations.

Tamales
Posts: 1309
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:47 am

Re: Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

Post by Tamales » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:32 pm

Interesting...I thought cfiresim had a dropdown selection to choose between historic market or monte carlo sim. Either I'm imagining things or maybe it was deleted because perhaps a bug was found and there was nobody able to track it down so it was easier to just disable it.

Edit: yes. I found an old saved screen capture from july 2017, and at least with the legacy version, you could choose between:
historic data, all years
historic data, specific years
constant market growth
monte carlo

There used to be a way to access the legacy version. Not sure if it still exists.

ExitStageLeft
Posts: 988
Joined: Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:02 pm

Re: Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

Post by ExitStageLeft » Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:49 am

PortfolioVisualizer has two tools that incorporate Monte Carlo simulation:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... simulation

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/financial-goals

I just stumbled on these today, so no opinion yet on their utility.

finite_difference
Posts: 1079
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Are there any free simulations (like Cfiresim) that use Monte Carlo analyses?

Post by finite_difference » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:48 pm

Here’s another one that was recently posted here:

http://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Let’s you add some income/expenses.

What data is needed for the historical stats? Just something like Simba’s Spreadsheet? Monthly/Yearly is Ok? Considering writing my own ;)
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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