For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

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livesoft
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For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by livesoft » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am

For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
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Alexa9
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Alexa9 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:09 am

The waiting game... We can't escape the inevitable. Only bonds can cushion our losses. Market timing and "getting out" for a while are not viable strategies.

ge1
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by ge1 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:33 am

.... here, yes, I’m one of those :D

Short answer is no, I’m not done waiting. I’am fully invested in my international stocks but my US stocks are significantly below my target allocation. US stocks have much further to fall; it may not happen now, it may not happen next year but eventually it will happen. And I’m perfectly content earning over 2% in my money market funds for that to happen. I have added Large Cap Value and Small Cap Value this week, as I think US Value is starting to look more attractive.

I am buying and selling opportunistically US large caps which have been beaten down and that strategy has done well this year.

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alpenglow
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by alpenglow » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:38 am

I'm not waiting for a correction exactly, at least in terms of having money in cash on the side. However, I'd be inclined to over re-balance if VIX got into the mid to high 40s.

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bottlecap
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by bottlecap » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:40 am

Great question.

I’m sure the prevailing sense of those waiting is that they shouldn’t invest because now the market has "shown" there is more decline to come. And maybe there is.

If some folks that previously were waiting for a dip actually feel and are willing to express those fears, this thread could be quite educational in the future.

JT

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Stinky
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Stinky » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:42 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am
For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
I’m watching the markets, as I always do. Maybe we will have a correction. Maybe we will have a bear market. And maybe not.

But I’m not “waiting” for anything. I’m sticking to my asset allocation and withdrawal strategy.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Ron Scott
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Ron Scott » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:02 am

US markets are flat for the year and international has behaved as usual. Where’s the correction?
Retirement is a game best played by those prepared for more volatility in the future than has been seen in the past. The solution is not to predict investment losses but to prepare for them.

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Toons
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Toons » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:04 am

Am I missing something?
I am traveling
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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JoMoney
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:03 am

Not done waiting, I'd like to ride through a bigger "correction" than this before I decide to retire.
Still fully invested ;)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

pdog2006
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by pdog2006 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:09 am

Waiting is not the way of the Boglehead. I just placed my order for my Roth trade. I do that every other Thursday no matter the market. Stick to your plan.

WanderingDoc
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:10 am

Based on your question, we no longer need to wait for it. It already happened. The U.S. market has already corrected (and heading further), more than 70% of S&P500 are in a bear market, Int'l bear market, emerging crashed. This is just the beginning. Exciting stuff! :beer
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

2pedals
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by 2pedals » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:20 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am
For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
I have to wait, the correctional officer said so. 😛
Last edited by 2pedals on Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

dh
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by dh » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:25 am

I am a person who has always struggled with the definition and the use of the word "correction." I believe it is a percentage off the recent high. Maybe I am the only Boglehead that feels this way, but that appears to be an strange method to define something labeled "correction." So, no I am not doing anything. My asset allocation holds unless we see a significant change in PE10. I think we would have to go "correction PLUS" for me to increase my equity allocation. So, I will stay the course. Best to all!

harvestbook
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by harvestbook » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:32 am

I'm currently getting a discount on the future dividends and earnings of all the world's companies. This is fine. Actually, the longer it goes on, the less I care.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

MotoTrojan
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:34 am

dh wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:25 am
I am a person who has always struggled with the definition and the use of the word "correction." I believe it is a percentage off the recent high. Maybe I am the only Boglehead that feels this way, but that appears to be an strange method to define something labeled "correction." So, no I am not doing anything. My asset allocation holds unless we see a significant change in PE10. I think we would have to go "correction PLUS" for me to increase my equity allocation. So, I will stay the course. Best to all!
If you believe the market is fairly priced, then the recent high was a fair price; why wouldn't it be significant if the market fell 10% (correction) or 20% (bear) from that previous fair price?

Also I'd do some homework on the correlation between PE10 and future returns.

Invest today, per your IPS. There is no other strategy that will work better in the long-run.

Jordan4FI
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Jordan4FI » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:38 am

I am just going to keep my weekly transfers going into Vanguard until I stop working.... and that should be A.OK in the end.

smitcat
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by smitcat » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:57 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:09 am
The waiting game... We can't escape the inevitable. Only bonds can cushion our losses. Market timing and "getting out" for a while are not viable strategies.
IMO - first answer was the best answer.

dh
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by dh » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:59 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:34 am
dh wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:25 am
I am a person who has always struggled with the definition and the use of the word "correction." I believe it is a percentage off the recent high. Maybe I am the only Boglehead that feels this way, but that appears to be an strange method to define something labeled "correction." So, no I am not doing anything. My asset allocation holds unless we see a significant change in PE10. I think we would have to go "correction PLUS" for me to increase my equity allocation. So, I will stay the course. Best to all!
If you believe the market is fairly priced, then the recent high was a fair price; why wouldn't it be significant if the market fell 10% (correction) or 20% (bear) from that previous fair price?

Also I'd do some homework on the correlation between PE10 and future returns.

Invest today, per your IPS. There is no other strategy that will work better in the long-run.
I stay with my asset allocation, until the probability of higher returns "suggests" increasing my equity allocation. As you are doing homework on PE10 returns, let me share the following. I believe it was written by Larry Swedroe (apologizes if I am incorrect on the author). It highlights probabilities, not absolutes associated with the PE10:

So what (if any) value does the P/E 10 provide? Cliff Asness of AQR provided us with the answer to that in his November 2012 paper "An Old
Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E." Asness found that "10-year forward average real returns fall nearly monotonically as starting Shiller
P/E's increase. Also, as starting Shiller P/E's go up, worst cases get worse and best cases get weaker." Keeping in mind the current level of 23.4,
and the fact that we have relatively small sample sizes, let's review the historical evidence:

When the P/E 10 was below 9.6, 10-year forward real returns averaged 10.3 percent. In relative terms, that's more than 50 percent above the
historical average of 6.8 percent (9.8 percent nominal return less 3.0 percent inflation). The best 10-year real return was 17.5 percent. The
worst was still a pretty good 4.8 percent real return, just 2 percent below the average.

When the P/E 10 was between 15.7 and 17.3 (around its average of 16.5), the 10-year forward real return averaged 5.6 percent. The best
and worst 10-year forward returns were 15.1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively.

When the P/E 10 was between 21.1 and 25.1 (it's currently in about the middle of that range), the 10-year forward real return averaged just
0.9 percent. The best 10-year forward real return was still 8.3 percent per year, but the worst 10-year forward real return was -4.4 percent
per year. The cumulative loss in real terms would have been a very painful 36.2 percent.

When the P/E 10 was above 25.1, the real return over the following 10 years averaged just 0.5 percent -- the same as the long-term real
return on risk-free one-month Treasury bills. The best 10-year real return was 6.3 percent, just 0.5 percent below the historical average, but
the worst 10-year real return was now -6.1 percent. The cumulative loss would have been 46.7 percent.

What can we learn from the above data? First, valuations clearly matter. In fact, they matter a lot. Higher starting values mean that future expected
returns are lower, and vice versa. However, there's still a wide range of potential

carmonkie
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by carmonkie » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:02 am

I did not lose any sleep last night. Staying the course.

coupleofcents
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:05 am

My one change to my strategy given the current climate is:

1. Allocate the $500/month I'm saving towards my next future house into a money market fund instead of Total Stock/Total Int'l Stock. I will need this money within 3-5 years.

Now when to sell my current investments in VTSAX/VTIAX that are intended for the house downpayment???? Haven't figured that out yet.

Still making all regular work contributions to 401K and regular IRAs since the timeline on these is still decades out.
Last edited by coupleofcents on Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

MotoTrojan
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:08 am

coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:05 am
My one change to my strategy given the current climate is:

1. Allocate the $500/month I'm saving towards my next future house into a money market fund instead of Total Stock/Total Int'l Stock. I will need this money within 3-5 years.

Now should when to sell my current investments in VTSAX/VTIAX that are intended for the house downpayment???? Haven't figured that out yet.

Still making all regular work contributions to 401K and regular IRAs since the timeline on these is still decades out.
You were saving 3-5 year house money in the market in the “previous climate”? Why was that less risky than the “current climate”?

Lafder
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Lafder » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:09 am

Every time I hear there is a market correction, and it looks like a big drop, I look at my AA to see if I "need" to rebalance.

Again and again, I am not beyond a 5% rebalancing band. But I have moved from one end of it towards the other.

Ouch to see the market go down by more than I have put in this year, for me. But, other days I have seen it go up by more than I put in this year.

lafder

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Sandtrap
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:10 am

Waiting for a Real Estate "correction" as well.
:shock:

coupleofcents
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:16 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:08 am
coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:05 am
My one change to my strategy given the current climate is:

1. Allocate the $500/month I'm saving towards my next future house into a money market fund instead of Total Stock/Total Int'l Stock. I will need this money within 3-5 years.

Now should when to sell my current investments in VTSAX/VTIAX that are intended for the house downpayment???? Haven't figured that out yet.

Still making all regular work contributions to 401K and regular IRAs since the timeline on these is still decades out.
You were saving 3-5 year house money in the market in the “previous climate”? Why was that less risky than the “current climate”?
Yeah, good question. Did a lump sum investment (from selling previous house) in 2015 into stock market (50k) and then followed up with $500/month since. At that time I didn't have a timeline for buying the next house but that it was a possibility at some point down the road.

Plans have firmed up over the last year about when to buy our next house, thus for the last year I started funneling $500/month into a money market account. Currently about 60%stocks/40% cash allocation for the house down payment. Still trying to figure out how to taper the 60% stocks allocation down now.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:23 am

I'm just waiting. I have no idea what I'm waiting for. Just waiting.

LuckBeALady
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by LuckBeALady » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:24 am

Not waiting for anything, just staying the course.

1. I hope to have more than 5 years before I start withdrawing funds.
2. I can't hope to pit my scanty knowledge and time against massive teams of financial speculators who spend every waking hour studying the markets.
3. Gambling does not appeal to me.
4. I am satisfied with year after year of average market returns, ala index funds.
5. If I tried to time the market, one of you would probably come knock on my door to take away my Boglehead card. 8-)

MotoTrojan
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:32 am

coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:16 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:08 am
coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:05 am
My one change to my strategy given the current climate is:

1. Allocate the $500/month I'm saving towards my next future house into a money market fund instead of Total Stock/Total Int'l Stock. I will need this money within 3-5 years.

Now should when to sell my current investments in VTSAX/VTIAX that are intended for the house downpayment???? Haven't figured that out yet.

Still making all regular work contributions to 401K and regular IRAs since the timeline on these is still decades out.
You were saving 3-5 year house money in the market in the “previous climate”? Why was that less risky than the “current climate”?
Yeah, good question. Did a lump sum investment (from selling previous house) in 2015 into stock market (50k) and then followed up with $500/month since. At that time I didn't have a timeline for buying the next house but that it was a possibility at some point down the road.

Plans have firmed up over the last year about when to buy our next house, thus for the last year I started funneling $500/month into a money market account. Currently about 60%stocks/40% cash allocation for the house down payment. Still trying to figure out how to taper the 60% stocks allocation down now.
If you need that money for the house I'd cash out now. Sure you'd have done better 2 weeks ago, but you should still be up big since 2015, with the more recent $500/month a small loss.

grettman
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by grettman » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:33 am

I am waiting!

Until Friday... to buy more VTI.

I am also waiting to buy more C, S, and I on payday (Friday after next).

Wash, rinse and repeat like I have over 20 years now.

Lots of waiting...

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Peculiar_Investor
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:44 am

Some data and charts to help those who don't have a plan that they follow :wink:, check out When Stocks Fell 10%…
Ben Carlson wrote:As of the market’s close yesterday the S&P 500 was down 9.4%. Not quite a 10% correction but it’s a stone’s throw away.

The question all investors would like to know is how much further this downturn has to go.

The answer is I don’t know and neither does anyone else.

<snip>

Going back to 1928…

When stocks fell 10%:

• 44.7% of the time they didn’t fall any further than 15%
• 12.8% of the time they didn’t fall any further than 20%
• 17.0% of the time they fell between 20% and 30%
• 10.6% of the time they fell between 30% and 40%
• 8.5% of the time they fell between 40% and 50%
• 6.4% of the time they fell more than 50%
Read the article if you want to learn what happens when stocks fell 15%, 20%, etc.

The key takeaway for me is "how much further this downturn has to go. The answer is I don’t know and neither does anyone else."
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams

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CyclingDuo
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:00 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am
For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
Always an interesting question when it comes to corrections.

In our case we simply have things set up for our contributions to go in automatically twice a month for the tax deferred plans, and weekly for taxable. Year in and year out no matter what the market is doing. Pretty much do the same when it comes to reinvesting dividends as well, as they get reinvested automatically when they are paid each quarter/month/bi-annual depending on the security.

Why?

I guess we could attempt to have all of those contributions go to the cash/MM accounts in each account and wait for entry points that may end up being more conducive before deploying them into the index funds, but it seems easier (in the lazy portfolio kind of way) to just keep it all on automatic pilot knowing that our purchases will take place at low points, high points, and everything between the two throughout every business cycle along the way over the years. This should still allow us to meet our goals over the next 10-30 years in spite of the drama of the shorter term segments along the way.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

flyingaway
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by flyingaway » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:29 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am
For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
I did not have much patience, I bought on Tuesday, before the big drop on Wednesday.

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HomerJ
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by HomerJ » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:39 am

dh wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:59 am
When the P/E 10 was between 21.1 and 25.1 (it's currently in about the middle of that range), the 10-year forward real return averaged just 0.9 percent. The best 10-year forward real return was still 8.3 percent per year, but the worst 10-year forward real return was -4.4 percent per year.
I believe this is false. Or old data. Or maybe they picked "21.1" for a reason to massage the data.

PE10 has been above 20 pretty much for the entire 26 years since 1992. There was a brief period in 2008-2009 when it dropped below 20.

10-year returns for all those years was much higher than an average 0.9% real.

(Nominal returns below - so subtract 2%-3% a year for inflation)
  • 1992 10-year returns were close to 12% a year
  • 1993 10-year returns were close to 9% a year
  • 1994 10-year returns were close to 11% a year
  • 1995 10-year returns were close to 10% a year
  • 1996 10-year returns were close to 9% a year
  • 1997 10-year returns were close to 9% a year
  • 1998 10-year returns were close to 4% a year
  • 1999 10-year returns were close to -2% a year
  • 2000 10-year returns were close to 1% a year
  • 2001 10-year returns were close to 4% a year
  • 2002 10-year returns were close to 6% a year
  • 2003 10-year returns were close to 9% a year
  • 2004 10-year returns were close to 8% a year
  • 2005 10-year returns were close to 9% a year
  • 2006 10-year returns were close to 7% a year
  • 2007 10-year returns were close to 7% a year

CAPE has mostly failed as a predictive tool for the past 26 years. I have NO idea why academics keep touting it's predictive powers.

The past 26 years have been very different from the preceding 70 years of data where the CAPE "rules" were discovered.

You can accurately say "expected 10-year returns are likely somewhat lower than historical averages if CAPE is high", but that's about as precise as you can get.

Sure, we've had a lot of 7%-9% 10-year periods instead of the 10% historical average. But 7%-9% is a far cry from the constant predictions of 3%-4% expected returns.

And, of course, these are just 10-year returns. Long term returns are what matters. Bad 10-year periods are commonly followed by good 10-year periods. 1999-2009 was pretty bad... 2009-2019 looks to be a lot better. (We're around 15% a year for the 9 year period 2009-2018 so far)
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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BW1985
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by BW1985 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:47 am

Ron Scott wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:02 am
US markets are flat for the year and international has behaved as usual. Where’s the correction?
-10% is as usual?
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

Pocanutin
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Pocanutin » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:51 am

To paraphrase Louis Rukeyser, this week I became a long-term investor :D

shainy
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by shainy » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:12 am

I am one of those who moved to cash 2 years ago and waiting for correction to happen to enter the market again.
I posted about my dilemma and got lot of good responses..

Since I had Rollover IRAs from previous employer 401k, and vanguard didn't let me rollover it to my Solo 401k, I recently moved to Etrade and getting all the funds transferred there. As the luck would have it, my funds at etrade were available only yesterday. I plan to fully invest over the next few months. I am waiting to pull the trigger this week.

McGilicutty
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by McGilicutty » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:16 am

I have between 10% to 15% of my portfolio that I muck around with. The rest is in U.S. stock market index ETFs (VOO, VTI, SPY) and I don't do any trading in that portion of my port.

Up until a couple of weeks ago I had some individual tech stocks (13% of port) which I sold at that time with the intention of putting the generated cash into stock market index ETFs. However, I wanted to try some market timing so instead of putting it all into index ETFs at one time, I've been sprinkling it into SCHB (Schwab Broad Market Index). I still have 5% of my port left which I plan to put into SCHB on Monday.

Basically, I expect the market to bottom in October and recover come November. However, I wasn't comfortable holding onto my tech stocks because you never know if those stocks are going to recover while the US stock market has always recovered eventually.

Ron Scott
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Ron Scott » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:23 am

BW1985 wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:47 am
Ron Scott wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:02 am
US markets are flat for the year and international has behaved as usual. Where’s the correction?
-10% is as usual?
Tongue-in-cheek poke
Retirement is a game best played by those prepared for more volatility in the future than has been seen in the past. The solution is not to predict investment losses but to prepare for them.

dh
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by dh » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:32 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:39 am
dh wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:59 am
When the P/E 10 was between 21.1 and 25.1 (it's currently in about the middle of that range), the 10-year forward real return averaged just 0.9 percent. The best 10-year forward real return was still 8.3 percent per year, but the worst 10-year forward real return was -4.4 percent per year.
I believe this is false. Or old data.
It is definitely an older analysis (it was published in March 2013). I hope it wasn't falsified! I believe the PE was between that range in 2013, whereas today it is over 30. So returns have been incredibly strong over those years. So it looks like it was NOT predictive over a five year period. I only shared this to examine probabilities (as illustrative from the past); I certainly don't think there is any absolute way to predict markets (If X, then do Y). I hope folks keep grappling and sharing thoughts. :sharebeer

GAAP
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by GAAP » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:42 am

Not waiting. I do have a lower bounds AA trigger to rebalance, so if stocks drop enough, I'll be doing something. Of course, I would have to pay close enough attention to do that...

I generally only look at rebalancing once a month, after I finish accounting for dividends and distributions. The "correction" would have to be large enough and in effect at that time for me to actually notice.

uberdoc
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by uberdoc » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:47 am

Waiting for 30th when I buy VTI.

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David Jay
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by David Jay » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:51 am

shainy wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:12 am
I am waiting to pull the trigger this week.
In hindsight, probably should have started yesterday...
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

shainy
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by shainy » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:56 am

David Jay wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:51 am
shainy wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:12 am
I am waiting to pull the trigger this week.
In hindsight, probably should have started yesterday...
I was little scared with bed red yesterday and want to see how it goes today.
It was off by almost 2000 points since i decided to enter the market. It's not that bad either.

dcabler
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by dcabler » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:58 am

No, not really. Happy with my AA. Only looking for two things:

1. How close am I getting to a rebal trigger?
2. Do a little TLH out of some funds that aren't part of my long term plans but for which I don't want a cap gains hit by selling.

Waiting on #1, Already started on #2

RudyS
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by RudyS » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:51 pm

dh wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:25 am
I am a person who has always struggled with the definition and the use of the word "correction." I believe it is a percentage off the recent high. Maybe I am the only Boglehead that feels this way, but that appears to be an strange method to define something labeled "correction." So, no I am not doing anything. My asset allocation holds unless we see a significant change in PE10. I think we would have to go "correction PLUS" for me to increase my equity allocation. So, I will stay the course. Best to all!
Well said. My view too. No problem sleeping.

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nedsaid
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by nedsaid » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:59 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am
For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Are you done waiting?

Why or why not?
To the Bogleheads wanting a correction: you asked for it, you got it.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Mr. Jelly
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Mr. Jelly » Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:30 pm

Pocanutin wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:51 am
To paraphrase Louis Rukeyser, this week I became a long-term investor :D
I like that!

In a way I am done waiting. Only in that this is exactly why I have invested how I have invested, at my age of 65. I looked at the different down sides and decided what I could life with. It appears to me this is what they call a persons "Risk Tolerance". Now what feelings and ideas are to be utilized deciding ones risk tolerance could be discussed forever.

WhiteMaxima
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:40 pm

I will take all gain out off the table and leave my principle on the table. Like fruit tree, you have to harvest the fruit and spend a whole long dark winter for next year harvest. I will fertilizer the fruit during when all the leafs falled and prepare for next season.

cadillex
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by cadillex » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:56 pm

i have always been a buy the dips kind of guy, consistently accumulate excess cash beyond the maxed out 401k's and roths, and wait for a good entry point. problem is the entry points are fleeting, and i end up sitting on too much cash(in MM) consistently. i can see in hindsight that buying in as soon as the extra funds are available would have been the best course of action.
additionally my parents, being of the rmd age, have annually executed the RMD(which they dont need to live on) and then never reinvested the proceeds, always waiting for the next big one...again missing out on potential returns over the last 10 years.
since the drop in early 2016, yes we still took 2 full years!! i have been pushing my excess and their excess into the appropriate funds at the dips, and finally, yesterday, just got all the cash laying around invested.
again the moral of the story is i should have just done it all at the big dip in 2016 and not allowed any additional money to accumulate again.
now... finally, we are at a point where all assets are invested and performing, not sitting on the sidelines, and any fresh excesses will be deployed immediately. like the upcoming RMD for the parents.
it is clear that our strategy wasted substantial returns while we waited.
all of the funds in question will never be needed by the parents, and i wont need them for another 15 years at least, so being all in with that long of a time horizon is the best course of action, any major correction, 30-50 %, can be weathered. so makes no sense to sit and wait for it.
simple asset allocation adjustment actually gives us all the dry powder we might need in such an event. even now at 80/20 stocks to bonds overall, there is enough in the bonds to adjust if necessary.
moral of the story, if yesterday was the correction you have been waiting for, like me, you lost.

remomnyc
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by remomnyc » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:43 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:10 am
Waiting for a Real Estate "correction" as well.
:shock:
Same here. Hoping when people realize they can't deduct most of their real estate taxes and new buyers can afford less due to higher interest rates, housing prices will decline and those of us who don't need much of a mortgage will be able to buy in at a reasonable price. If the stock market plummets, however, I may be tempted to use my down payment to buy the correction, depending on what is down more, stocks or housing prices -- usually stocks, since housing is less liquid.

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Tim_S
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Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

Post by Tim_S » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:47 pm

"Press on regardless"
“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” John Bogle

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