Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

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helloeveryone
Posts: 161
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:16 pm

Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by helloeveryone » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:14 am

I wanted to share my market timing mistakes with the group relative to when I joined the BH forum.

FXSIX = Fidelity Index 500 Fund
VBTLX = Vanguard total bond index fund
the % is the % of my entire retirement portfolio
the value of the funds was at the time I adjusted the portfolio

* 11.6.2014 – FXSIX 72.18 VBTLX 10.78 - moved 30% of stocks to bonds
* 7.13.2015 – FXSIX 74.05 VBTLX 10.67 - moved 10% to bonds
* 8.24.2015 – FXSIX 66.92 VBTLX 10.82 - moved 100% of bonds to stocks
* 12.17.2015 – FXSIX 72.3 VBTLX 10.68 - moved 15% to bonds
* 2.8.2016 – FXSIX 65.24 VBTLX 10.84 - moved 100% bonds to stocks
* 8.4.2016 – FXSIX 76.24 VBTLX 11.12 - moved 50% of stocks to bonds
* 9.2016 - Joined BH forum after my boss told me about it
* 12.7.2016 – FXSIX 79.17 VBTLX 10.69 - moved 25% to bonds

For reference:
10.15.2018 FXSIX 96.19 VBTLX 10.29

As you can see I was a big dummy before joining the BH forum.
Then I still managed to not buy into it since I was still acquiring knowledge.
Since 9.2016 I have read many of the books recommended the forum. I have read many posts. and I have picked an asset allocation that I can stick with and adjust within the 5% band most recommend annually.

Through this whole time and currently 100% of my retirement savings were going into the FXSIX.

Anyone care to share how quickly after they discovered BH they bought into the stay the course and stopped "market timing"?

tenkuky
Posts: 567
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:28 pm

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by tenkuky » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:46 am

Not exactly market timing, but after I joined BH in 2014, I got educated about expense ratios and fees and took about 3-4 months to get out of all my actively managed funds. I also adjusted my asset allocation as previously I didn't even think about it and have adjusted it gradually with age since.
It's systematic so I don't consider it timing :wink:

staythecourse
Posts: 6117
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by staythecourse » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:59 am

Don't worry it is more important that you learned how to fish then when you learned it. Sounds like you are young in your career and if so you have MANY years to do it correct.

Personally, I never market timed or did individual stock selection as it seemed common sense that you can't beat the market as a whole. I was shocked to read that folks didn't just assume that to be true.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

Fallible
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Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm
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Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by Fallible » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 am

helloeveryone wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:14 am
...
Anyone care to share how quickly after they discovered BH they bought into the stay the course and stopped "market timing"?
If you're referring to a sort of delay in actually making the change to BH after discovering your investing mistakes, it happened to me and my guess is that it happens often to others, even to investing pros early in their careers (the author Michael Lewis is an example). For some reason, once a wrong path is discovered and the right path is realized, the switch to the right, or better, path is not always made immediately. In my case, after I discovered passive investing, I immediately began putting new money into indexing, but it was awhile before I moved money from my active account into the new passive. It's probably not a huge deal, but it is interesting and I'm not certain of the reasons, other than that they probably vary with each individual.
Bogleheads® wiki | Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle

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David Jay
Posts: 5677
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by David Jay » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:11 am

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:59 am
...it seemed common sense that you can't beat the market as a whole.
Genuine common sense is surprisingly uncommon.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

staythecourse
Posts: 6117
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by staythecourse » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:13 am

David Jay wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:11 am
staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:59 am
...it seemed common sense that you can't beat the market as a whole.
Genuine common sense is surprisingly uncommon.
True that. I am guilty of the same, but randomly for this specific issue I don't understand how anyone can think they can time a market that makes no sense on when it goes up, down, or sideways are on day to day basis.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

helloeveryone
Posts: 161
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:16 pm

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

Post by helloeveryone » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:51 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:13 am
David Jay wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:11 am
staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:59 am
...it seemed common sense that you can't beat the market as a whole.
Genuine common sense is surprisingly uncommon.
True that. I am guilty of the same, but randomly for this specific issue I don't understand how anyone can think they can time a market that makes no sense on when it goes up, down, or sideways are on day to day basis.

Good luck.
I think it's just complete ignorance on the subject. No one talked to be about this when I was a kid, in high school, in college, beyond college etc.. My education started with reading the personal finance/retirement planning in money.com, forbes.com, kiplingers.com, random books, then as the big picture sunk in (save for retirement, control spending) next thing you know I learned about BH and I finally understand the big picture and some of the details better.

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