Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

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steve321
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Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:22 am

I am pacing up and down my living room waiting for the LSE to open, so that I can buy some stocks on sale. :moneybag :sharebeer
I was going to invest in the S&P, but with the Nikkei down 4%, the HKG down 4.5% etc I am wondering where the best deal is.
Any suggestion of which market I should go for? Perhaps I should just buy a MSCI World ETF+ an EM Markets one?

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Smoke » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am

What correction?

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JoMoney
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am

What is your asset allocation?
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by CaliJim » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:34 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:22 am
I am pacing up and down my living room waiting for the LSE to open, so that I can buy some stocks on sale. :moneybag :sharebeer
I was going to invest in the S&P, but with the Nikkei down 4%, the HKG down 4.5% etc I am wondering where the best deal is.
Any suggestion of which market I should go for? Perhaps I should just buy a MSCI World ETF+ an EM Markets one?
Steve calm yoself!

OMG. WHAT CORRECTION? DID SOMETHING HAPPEN TODAY. PLEASE....CALM DOWN. WATCH YOUR BREATH. BREATH IN A SHORT BREATH. BREATH OUT A LONG BREATH.

INVESTING Is not a sprint!!!! it is a marathon. We are in it for the LONG HAUL!

PULL OUT YOUR IPS AND REREAD IT. YOUR ANSWER SHOULD BE IN THERE!!!!

OR.... Stare into your Avatar's eyes and ask your guru 'what would he do?!" NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!
MAJARISHI CAN'T.
JUST... MAKE A PLAN and FOLLOW THE PLAN.
PRICES GO UP, THEY GO DOWN. THEY GO SIDEWAYS FOR YEARS.
WHEN THEY GO DOWN, DON't RUSH TO BUY!!!! THAT IS A TRYING TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE. BIG BEHAVIORAL MISTAKE. PRICES COULD CONTINUE TO FALL. NOBODY KNOWS!!!!!! NOT EVEN JACK.

THE BEST DEAL IS WHEN YOUR IPS TELLS YOU THAT YOUR ASSETS ARE MORE THAN 5% OUT OF THE TOLERANCE BAND AND IT IS TIME TO REBALANCE YOUR PORTFOLIO! THIS IS THE BEST THING THAT CAN HAPPEN. JUST CALMLY AND PATIENTLY REBALANCE. ALL THE GREAT DEALS ARE TAKEN OFF THE TABLE BY THE BIG FISH BEFORE YOU OR i EVEN SEE THEM. THIS 'CORRECTION' IF THAT IS WHAT IT IS .... IS NO BIG DEAL.
JUST REBALANCE LIKE WE ALL DO. FOLLOW YOUR IPS. THIS IS THE BEST PART OF BEING A BH NERD.
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steve321
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:35 am

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am
What is your asset allocation?
60/40 but since stocks fell, it got slightly out of balance. So I'm buying 100K worth this morning.
I mean it's the same companies as yesterday, but they are 4% cheaper now. So why not go for it? :sharebeer

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by CaliJim » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:42 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:35 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am
What is your asset allocation?
60/40 but since stocks fell, it got slightly out of balance. So I'm buying 100K worth this morning.
I mean it's the same companies as yesterday, but they are 4% cheaper now. So why not go for it? :sharebeer
I GET IT.... BUT THEY COULD BE ANOTHER 8% CHEAPER TOMORROW EVENING!!!!

IF THEY WERE SUCH A BARGAIN, HOW COME THE DAY TRADERS DIDN'T BID UP THE PRICE AT THE CLOSE? BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED PRICES WOULD BE LOWER A THE OPEN!!!
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JoMoney
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:35 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am
What is your asset allocation?
60/40 but since stocks fell, it got slightly out of balance. So I'm buying 100K worth this morning.
I mean it's the same companies as yesterday, but they are 4% cheaper now. So why not go for it? :sharebeer
*shrug* They were even cheaper earlier this year.
If you have an IPS and/or asset allocation, it should be pretty straightforward what you need to do if it's out of alignment.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:50 am

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 am

If you have an IPS and/or asset allocation, it should be pretty straightforward what you need to do if it's out of alignment.
I am pretty flexible, within a few percentage points, with my AA (I do slice and dice mainly). In this, I was inspired by Jack Bogle who said that you should not be too precise with your AA and keep rebalancing; just rebalance when it gets really out of balance, by 10% say.
So I am a bit overweight in Europe and so I thought I could go for Japan, the US or EM, or perhaps go for the whole lot (?)

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by JoMoney » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:15 am

There is nobody on here who can tell you what will perform the best from now to some future date (at least not with much better than a coin flip chance).
My recommendation is that you decide for yourself what your risk tolerance is, what exposure is right for you to various risky assets, and maintain the risk profile you're comfortable with.
I believe a simple portfolio that doesn't require many decisions will help keep you from making too many mistakes.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by cinghiale » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:51 am

The OP is itching to do something. He’s not replying to the specifics of the responses so far; he’s just adding on more reasons to “take advantage” of the recent swoon. Please, somebody, just tell him to go right ahead...
"We don't see things as they are; we see them as we are." Anais Nin | | "Sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious." George Orwell

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Momus » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:57 am

It's 6-7% down from the top. We haven't seen anything yet...

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:02 am

cinghiale wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:51 am
The OP is itching to do something. He’s not replying to the specifics of the responses so far; he’s just adding on more reasons to “take advantage” of the recent swoon. Please, somebody, just tell him to go right ahead...
I did: 50 K in EM and 50K in Japan. If a boar market comes (sorry, I mean bear market - got confused by your avatar :D ) then it won't have been the best of bargains. Still, I bought them cheaper than all the B&H investors who bought them recently.
If stocks prices snap back, I'll be a winner :sharebeer

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by cinghiale » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:42 am

steve321 wrote:
If a boar market comes (sorry, I mean bear market - got confused by your avatar :D )
:D

Great reply, and Oh-Sho humorous.
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by BeBH65 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:38 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:35 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am
What is your asset allocation?
60/40 but since stocks fell, it got slightly out of balance. So I'm buying 100K worth this morning.
I mean it's the same companies as yesterday, but they are 4% cheaper now. So why not go for it? :sharebeer
Buy what your investment plan tells you to buy to bring your portfolio back to the asset allocation balance that you determined a long time ago.

References:
- Investment_policy_statement
- Rebalancing
BeBH65. (only an investment enthusiast, not a financial adviser, perform your due diligence).

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:03 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:22 am
...I am pacing up and down my living room waiting for the LSE to open, so that I can buy some stocks on sale...
I hate the "stocks on sale" meme. Even the slightest thought will make you realize it is distorted marketing talk. In a supermarket, usually we know that an item on sale really is exactly the same item as it was a week before.

But when we buy day-old bread, or--in our local supermarket--meat with a "manager's special" mark-down, which means it's close to the pull date--it is not the same item. Ditto a "scratch and dent sale," or an "out of box sale." They are priced less because they are worth less. You don't automatically buy them just because the price is low. You make a personal evaluation of how much the reasons for the sale price matter to you. If you're going to cook meat loaf tonight, then the short date on the hamburger on sale doesn't matter to you, because you aren't going to store it, and really fresh taste isn't important. If you're going to serve it to guests in a backyard cookout three days from now, it might be important.

There's no guarantee that today's stocks have "the same" value as yesterday's. Under the dividend discount theory of stock valuation, a rise in interest rates has made them really be worth less.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Freefun » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:06 am

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:03 am
steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:22 am
...I am pacing up and down my living room waiting for the LSE to open, so that I can buy some stocks on sale...
I hate the "stocks on sale" meme. Even the slightest thought will make you realize it is distorted marketing talk. In a supermarket, usually we know that an item on sale really is exactly the same item as it was a week before.

But when we buy day-old bread, or--in our local supermarket--meat with a "manager's special" mark-down, which means it's close to the pull date--it is not the same item. Ditto a "scratch and dent sale," or an "out of box sale." They are priced less because they are worth less. You don't automatically buy them just because the price is low. You make a personal evaluation of how much the reasons for the sale price matter to you. If you're going to cook meat loaf tonight, then the short date on the hamburger on sale doesn't matter to you, because you aren't going to store it, and really fresh taste isn't important. If you're going to serve it to guests in a backyard cookout three days from now, it might be important.

There's no guarantee that today's stocks have "the same" value as yesterday's. Under the dividend discount theory of stock valuation, a rise in interest rates has made them really be worth less.
+1

I always find your posts very helpful. Thank you.
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by ge1 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:55 am

Steve, I’m curious, were you invested back in 2007-2009 as well?

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by MrVargas » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:57 am

Stocks are never on sale. Stocks are never overpriced. They are always priced correctly. Changing your asset allocation right now is market timing and over the long run you are likely to lose to the person who does not react to the market (at all).

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by quantAndHold » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:59 am

What does tour IPS say to do in a situation like this?

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by lostdog » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:02 am

Why are you pacing?

Just chill and don't react to the daily flucuations. It's a waste of time.

Time in the market is better than timing the market.

After reading this entire thread, is this a troll post?

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Lauretta » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:25 am

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:03 am


There's no guarantee that today's stocks have "the same" value as yesterday's. Under the dividend discount theory of stock valuation, a rise in interest rates has made them really be worth less.
The CAC PME index in France, in which I have some investments because of tax advantages, at one point today was down 6.5% relative to yesterday morning (I was unlucky enough to rebalance into the corresponding fund the day before yesterday). The rate for the German bund, which is the safe asset in Euroland, did not change significantly over the last 2 days. In fact it's slighly lower today than yesterday. So your reasoning doesn't make any sense.
In fact the small caps in Europe, particularly in the tech sector, fell sharply yesterday when the Nasdaq opened lower.
So at 3.35pm Paris time, most small caps lost a few percentage points in price, even though interest rates did not change and the firms obviously didn't change either. The only way I can explain this is that people got very nervous when they saw stocks trading lower in the US, and started selling. There is no rational reason based on discount rates or that can explain this.
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:19 am

lostdog wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:02 am
After reading this entire thread, is this a troll post?
I often think the same thing on posts like these. Hard to tell.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by mortfree » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:24 am

coupleofcents wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:19 am
lostdog wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:02 am
After reading this entire thread, is this a troll post?
I often think the same thing on posts like these. Hard to tell.
he had 2-3 threads going earlier this week about gloom and doom articles.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Nowizard » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:49 am

These posts always seem to bring similar responses, often ones that are less than considerate of the OP who is asking a serious question. For example, the commonly stated axiom that "No one can predict the direction of the market" is incorrect but often trotted out in response when people make posts such as that of the OP. The reality is that each of us who invests is predicting the direction of the market, just with the corollary that we cannot predict when the rise will occur.

Tim

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by RickBoglehead » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 am

Puzzling why the OP comes to this forum, when he's buying stocks, not low-priced index mutual funds.

I need to invest the second 50% of my ROTH IRAs as well as my i401k (employer contribution), so I'll be doing that in the next few days. But not into stocks, into index funds.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:28 am

WWJBD (what would Jack Bogle do?)

Don't do something....just stand there.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by CaliJim » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:44 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:50 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 am

If you have an IPS and/or asset allocation, it should be pretty straightforward what you need to do if it's out of alignment.
I am pretty flexible, within a few percentage points, with my AA (I do slice and dice mainly).
YAY. Another dice'it'up kung fu YOGI ! Good ROM (range of motions) helps when trying to get out of bed before the markets open! esp. here on the left where we are 3 hours behind in the action coast.

BTW, ned, earl, what's going on in the markets this morning?I haven't looked.
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by bloom2708 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:48 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:02 am
cinghiale wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:51 am
The OP is itching to do something. He’s not replying to the specifics of the responses so far; he’s just adding on more reasons to “take advantage” of the recent swoon. Please, somebody, just tell him to go right ahead...
I did: 50 K in EM and 50K in Japan. If a boar market comes (sorry, I mean bear market - got confused by your avatar :D ) then it won't have been the best of bargains. Still, I bought them cheaper than all the B&H investors who bought them recently.
If stocks prices snap back, I'll be a winner :sharebeer
Looks like prices will be cheaper again tomorrow. Oops.

Total US + Total International. Don't have $100k on the sidelines. I think this a "poke" post. Poke, poke. Good luck!
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by TIAX » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:48 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:35 am
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am
What is your asset allocation?
60/40 but since stocks fell, it got slightly out of balance. So I'm buying 100K worth this morning.
I mean it's the same companies as yesterday, but they are 4% cheaper now. So why not go for it? :sharebeer
Why do people get so excited over 1 day swings but less so if it is over several days?

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by Shackleton » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 am

I have to admit that I smiled when I saw the drop because my 401k contributions for this pay period will go in today. But with my luck the market will rebound by end of day and I will miss the sale prices. Oh well. There is always next pay period.
“Superhuman effort isn't worth a damn unless it achieves results.” ~Ernest Shackleton

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 am

RickBoglehead wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 am
Puzzling why the OP comes to this forum, when he's buying stocks, not low-priced index mutual funds.
I invest in ETFs. In the OP (which you may want to read again) I asked which ETF to buy (in other words which geographical region was more beaten down).

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by ICH » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:28 am

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 am
RickBoglehead wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 am
Puzzling why the OP comes to this forum, when he's buying stocks, not low-priced index mutual funds.
I invest in ETFs. In the OP (which you may want to read again) I asked which ETF to buy (in other words which geographical region was more beaten down).
I 'd say GREK wins anytime the more beaten down competition.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by steve321 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:21 pm

ICH wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:28 am
steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 am
RickBoglehead wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 am
Puzzling why the OP comes to this forum, when he's buying stocks, not low-priced index mutual funds.
I invest in ETFs. In the OP (which you may want to read again) I asked which ETF to buy (in other words which geographical region was more beaten down).
I 'd say GREK wins anytime the more beaten down competition.
I quite like South Korea, it lost 4% today. Might get in there tomorrow; won't put much into it though because of the risk of war; perhaps 10k.

ICH
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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by ICH » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:50 pm

steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:21 pm
ICH wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:28 am
steve321 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 am
RickBoglehead wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 am
Puzzling why the OP comes to this forum, when he's buying stocks, not low-priced index mutual funds.
I invest in ETFs. In the OP (which you may want to read again) I asked which ETF to buy (in other words which geographical region was more beaten down).
I 'd say GREK wins anytime the more beaten down competition.
I quite like South Korea, it lost 4% today. Might get in there tomorrow; won't put much into it though because of the risk of war; perhaps 10k.
Greeks fought in Korea in the past, so chances are they will do in the future. But you see what is hapenning with Turkey and all the revived story about Grexit. It will certainly be GREK.

Anyway, good luck.

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by nick evets » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:23 pm

Nowizard wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:49 am
These posts always seem to bring similar responses, often ones that are less than considerate of the OP who is asking a serious question.
Tim
I guess it's a "serious question." He answered himself, anyway -- but as in the song, "...but not as much as tomorrow"

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Re: Which market should I go for, to profit most from the correction?

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:57 pm

An off-topic post and reply were removed. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
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