Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

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TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:00 pm

Hello,

New Boglehead here that needs to whip my portfolio into shape. Any comments or suggestions will be appreciated. Thanks!

Emergency funds: Two months cash, 4 months in Roth IRA.
Debt:
Mortgage: $4,131 Monthly, $456,786 Balance @ 2.75%, 13 years left. Current Value $840,000~
401k Loan: $230 monthly, $45,962 Balance @ 4.25%. Paying interest to myself.
Car lease: $132 per month
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly, no children (yet, hopefully soon)
Tax Rate: 22% Federal, close to being put in 24% bracket. 9.3% State
State of Residence: California
Age: 40, Spouse, 30
Desired Asset allocation: ?% stocks / ?% bonds
Desired International allocation: ?% of stocks

Current retirement assets

Mine Institution % Symbol Asset Type ER
401k Alight (Compnay) 58% VIIIX Vanguard Institutional Index Fund S&P 500 Index 0.020%
Traditional IRA Fidelity 9% FSEVX Fidelity® Extended Market Index Fund - Premium Mid-Cap Blend 0.045%
Roth IRA Fidelity 7% FSSVX Fidelity® Small Cap Index Fund - Premium Class Small-Cap Blend 0.025%
Roth IRA Fidelity 1% AAPL Apple Inc Stock
Roth IRA Fidelity 0% FDRXX Fidelity® Government Cash Reserves Cash 0.370%
Spouse
401k Principal (Company) 4% Principal LargeCap S&P 500 Index Separate Account S&P 500 Index 0.610%
Traditional IRA Vanguard 2% VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares S&P 500 Index 0.140%
Roth IRA Vanguard 4% VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares S&P 500 Index 0.040%

69% Large Cap
9% Mid Cap
7% Small Cap
14% Bonds* I'm considering my 401k loan a pseudo bond.
1% Cash


Contributions

Last year we contributed 50% of our income to retirement savings and dept reduction. We are on track to be within 5% of that this year.

New annual Contributions 
$18,500 Mine 401k, 8,000 match
$8,000 Spouse 401k, no match
$5,500 Mine IRA/Roth IRA
$5,500 Spouse IRA/Roth IRA
$0 in taxable, plan to max out spouse's 401k first.

Contribution schedule
1. Max my 401k
2. Max my Roth IRA
3. Max spouse Roth IRA
4. Max spouse 401k.
5. ?, may switch to HSA.

Available funds 

My 401k
Alight (Compnay) $ - Target Funds available between 2005 - 2055 Mixed 0.25 - 0.55%
Alight (Compnay) $ - Loomis Sayles Core Plus Fixed Income Trust D Bonds Mixed 0.250%
Alight (Compnay) $ - NRGSX Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund Small Cap US 0.750%
Alight (Compnay) $ - WSMDX William Blair Small-Mid Cap Growth CIT II Small-Mid Cap Growth 0.770%
Alight (Compnay) $ - DODGX Dodge & Cox Stock Fund Large-Cap Value Funds 0.520%
Alight (Compnay) $ - IEOHX Voya Large Cap Growth Equity Collective Trust Fund Large Cap Growth 0.570%
Alight (Compnay) $ - AEPGX American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund International Growth 0.820%

Spouse 401k
All have high ER, not worth listing.

Goal:
In 7 to 12 years rent or sell the house, move to a lower cost of living town in Japan to be with my spouse's family and raise our children while living off our investments.

Risk tolerance:
On a scale of 1 to 10 we are at an 8. The worst case is we will need to work for a extra few years or will need supplemental income once in Japan.

Questions:
1. Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Thanks for taking the time to read!

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FiveK
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Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by FiveK » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:52 am

What is your definition of "weather"? E.g., maximum 1 year decline, length of time to recover, etc.?

Mr.BB
Posts: 545
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:13 am

For your spouse 401k, check to see if she can set up a brokerage 401k and then you can pick the funds for their 401k. F.Y.I if they allow this, you will not be able to get the lower admiral E.R. (vanguard) only investor E.R. But I would bet those are still cheaper then what they currently have.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:53 am

FiveK wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:52 am
What is your definition of "weather"? E.g., maximum 1 year decline, length of time to recover, etc.?
Great questions, thank you. By weather I mean, If I have one asset decreasing in value I'd like to have a different one increasing in value so that I can rebalance and bring some stability to my portfolio. I'm currently 83% in stock and I don't have a rebalance plan. I can handle a 25% drop without panicking. Two years ago I committed to 90% stocks because FI was at least ten years out. Right now, I can still do 10 years if needed but I'd prefer to be FI in 7 years. Another note, I'd like to stay away from real estate funs because I already have a lot invested in my home.

TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:57 am

Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:13 am
For your spouse 401k, check to see if she can set up a brokerage 401k and then you can pick the funds for their 401k. F.Y.I if they allow this, you will not be able to get the lower admiral E.R. (vanguard) only investor E.R. But I would bet those are still cheaper then what they currently have.
Thanks for the suggestion. Luckily my spouse will be switching jobs soon to a, hopefully, better plan. If the new one is just as bad as this one I'll look into a brokerage 401k.

Elysium
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Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by Elysium » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:16 am

In your situation the Target fund that most closely meets your desired retirement age seems to be the best case given your choices in 401(k) plan. You can then adjust the overall allocation by adding low cost Vanguard funds in your Roth IRA and your spouse's Roth IRA. Assuming they are with Vanguard.

You could keep same stock/bond ratio in both 401(k) and Roth IRA to keep things simple.

In terms of being able to weather a bear market, no secret formula here, other than having an allocation to high quality bonds of intermediate term, preferrabiliy U.S Treasury Bonds. You could do this in your Roth IRA acccounts to bring about some balance to overall portfolio.

What is the composition of your TR funds in 401(k), are they active or passive, who manages them, and what kind of securities they are invested in?

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FiveK
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Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by FiveK » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:19 am

TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:53 am
By weather I mean, If I have one asset decreasing in value I'd like to have a different one increasing in value so that I can rebalance and bring some stability to my portfolio.
So would we all - unfortunately, that's not always possible. ;)
I'm currently 83% in stock and I don't have a rebalance plan. I can handle a 25% drop without panicking. Two years ago I committed to 90% stocks because FI was at least ten years out. Right now, I can still do 10 years if needed but I'd prefer to be FI in 7 years. Another note, I'd like to stay away from real estate funs because I already have a lot invested in my home.
No consensus on specific recommendations for that time frame. E.g., Investing with a medium-term timeline - Bogleheads is long on "things to consider" but short on specific numbers. You might look at what average returns you need to reach FI in 7 years, and see what minimum % stock is required to achieve that (based on whatever you expect for stock and bond returns in the next 7 years).

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:06 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:31 am

You say you want to be FI in 7-12 years and then move to Japan to live off your investments. If so, we need a lot more information.

1. What is your asset balance right now? Home equity + savings? Don’t count your 401k loan, that is a liability.

2. How much $/yr will you need to live in Japan?

3. In Japan will neither of you work? You will be 50 and wife will be 40.

Mr.BB
Posts: 545
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:44 pm

TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:57 am
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:13 am
For your spouse 401k, check to see if she can set up a brokerage 401k and then you can pick the funds for their 401k. F.Y.I if they allow this, you will not be able to get the lower admiral E.R. (vanguard) only investor E.R. But I would bet those are still cheaper then what they currently have.
Thanks for the suggestion. Luckily my spouse will be switching jobs soon to a, hopefully, better plan. If the new one is just as bad as this one I'll look into a brokerage 401k.
Just a final follow up. We use Fidelity through my wife's work (brokerage 401k). They charge $75 for every transaction that is not a Fidelity fund. One of the funds I had set up was Vanguard's small cap value fund. It's been a workhorse these last couple of years and whenever I exchanged out some profits from that fund into another fund...poof...there goes $75.00. So make sure you get all the costs upfront for setting up brokerage 401k.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

TheChaz
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:22 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:16 am
In your situation the Target fund that most closely meets your desired retirement age seems to be the best case given your choices in 401(k) plan. You can then adjust the overall allocation by adding low cost Vanguard funds in your Roth IRA and your spouse's Roth IRA. Assuming they are with Vanguard.
I have started to seriously consider a TR fund. I didn't consider them before because I thought their ER was high but the ones offered, and managed, by employer doesn't look bad. The .02 ER from VIIX will be hard to give up.
Elysium wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:16 am
In terms of being able to weather a bear market, no secret formula here, other than having an allocation to high quality bonds of intermediate term, preferrabiliy U.S Treasury Bonds. You could do this in your Roth IRA acccounts to bring about some balance to overall portfolio.
It's somewhat comforting to hear. I was in VBMFX (Vanguard Total Bond) but bailed after it dropped 10% and reading an article about the S&P will outperform bonds over a 10 year period. Maybe I was in the wrong bond fund or maybe my formula should be more cash heavy
Elysium wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:16 am
What is the composition of your TR funds in 401(k), are they active or passive, who manages them, and what kind of securities they are invested in?
Target Date 2055 is active and managed by my employer, at least that's what the brochure says, link below.
Below is the fund overview, looks like it has some everything.
Equity 87.19
Fixed Income 10.83
Cash 1.19
Other 0.79

https://hewitt.lipperweb.com/?symbol=03 ... 8#overview

Fallible
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Contact:

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by Fallible » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:30 pm

Welcome to the forum! You're asking the right questions and here is basic information to know.

To "weather" a bear market, i.e., to stay the course versus losing sleep and/or bailing out in a panic in the next downturn/crash, you'll want to invest according to your need, ability, and willingness (tolerance) to take risk. The basic question to ask when determining risk tolerance is how much can you afford to lose before you'll need the money, which you are aware of. It's also good to know that personal risk tolerance changes often and that there are times when a change in allocation is justified.

Information on the above is available in the BH wiki on "Asset Allocation" and "Risk Tolerance." An excellent book on the subject often recommended here and in the wiki is All About Asset Allocation , 2nd Ed., by pro Boglehead Rick Ferri.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Risk_tolerance

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/asset-allo ... -you-take/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/asset-allo ... -you-need/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/asset-allo ... tolerance/
Bogleheads® wiki | Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle

TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:43 pm

FiveK wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:19 am
TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:53 am
By weather I mean, If I have one asset decreasing in value I'd like to have a different one increasing in value so that I can rebalance and bring some stability to my portfolio.
So would we all - unfortunately, that's not always possible. ;)
Thats somewhat comforting to hear, I've been banging my head against the wall looking at previous market corrections to see what goes up when the S&P goes down.
No consensus on specific recommendations for that time frame. E.g., Investing with a medium-term timeline - Bogleheads is long on "things to consider" but short on specific numbers. You might look at what average returns you need to reach FI in 7 years, and see what minimum % stock is required to achieve that (based on whatever you expect for stock and bond returns in the next 7 years).
I've used a 7% return in my modeling. It puts my FI at 9 years with my current savings rate. I'm estimating 7 years if I can increase my savings rate and income. A portfolio that keeps me at the 7% for the next 7 years would be ideal.

TheChaz
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:05 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:31 am
You say you want to be FI in 7-12 years and then move to Japan to live off your investments. If so, we need a lot more information.

1. What is your asset balance right now? Home equity + savings? Don’t count your 401k loan, that is a liability.

2. How much $/yr will you need to live in Japan?

3. In Japan will neither of you work? You will be 50 and wife will be 40.
1. I calculated my FI using a old web tool, forgot the name, that took my current assets and savings rate and compared it markets over the last 200 or so years and gave me my probably of success in percentage. Sorry I forgot the name. I can post those numbers if needed or if you have a tool you recommend I can run all my numbers though it.

2. 36k/yr in today's dollars. We're somewhat minimalist so this seems achievable. We will not be living in Tokyo.

3. Finding work in my field will be near impossible due the the language barrier. My wife can work if needed. Or we may start a business that we enjoy, like a bakery/cafe.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:06 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:26 pm

TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:05 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:31 am
You say you want to be FI in 7-12 years and then move to Japan to live off your investments. If so, we need a lot more information.

1. What is your asset balance right now? Home equity + savings? Don’t count your 401k loan, that is a liability.

2. How much $/yr will you need to live in Japan?

3. In Japan will neither of you work? You will be 50 and wife will be 40.
1. I calculated my FI using a old web tool, forgot the name, that took my current assets and savings rate and compared it markets over the last 200 or so years and gave me my probably of success in percentage. Sorry I forgot the name. I can post those numbers if needed or if you have a tool you recommend I can run all my numbers though it.

2. 36k/yr in today's dollars. We're somewhat minimalist so this seems achievable. We will not be living in Tokyo.

3. Finding work in my field will be near impossible due the the language barrier. My wife can work if needed. Or we may start a business that we enjoy, like a bakery/cafe.
Your numbers don’t add up. You are saving $36k/yr and you call that 50% of your income, but you also have a mortgage that costs $50k/yr.

TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:43 pm

Fallible wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:30 pm
Welcome to the forum! You're asking the right questions and here is basic information to know.
Thank you! I've been lurking for a while hoping to built up enough knowledge to ask the right questions.
Fallible wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:30 pm
To "weather" a bear market, i.e., to stay the course versus losing sleep and/or bailing out in a panic in the next downturn/crash, you'll want to invest according to your need, ability, and willingness (tolerance) to take risk. The basic question to ask when determining risk tolerance is how much can you afford to lose before you'll need the money, which you are aware of. It's also good to know that personal risk tolerance changes often and that there are times when a change in allocation is justified.
This has already been a great exercise in finding out what kind of investor I am. Here is what I've come up with.

I'm a somewhat active investor that likes to review my balances once a month. Once a quarter I'd like to balance my portfolio, swapping out funds that are overvalued or heavy with ones that look like a value or are light. I am currently willing to accept high risk for high returns knowing that it may accelerate or delay my FI. Once a year I plan on reviewing and updating this investment philosophy.

Looking at my current portfolio I am heavy in US stocks which are 83% of my portfolio.

Here is what I'm thinking
401K - 51% of our portfolio
20% VIIIX Vanguard Institutional Index Fund
21% Target Fund 2055
10% (RERGX) American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund

Fidelity Traditional IRA - 11%
Thinking about rolling it into my 401k so I have access to the investments in there.
11% FSEVX Fidelity® Extended Market Index Fund - Premium Class

Fidelity Roth IRA - 10%
5% FSIYX Fidelity® Inflation-Protected Bond Index Fund - Premium Class
5% FTBFX Fidelity® Total Bond Fund

Spouse 401K - 5%
5% Principal LargeCap S&P 500 Index Separate Account

Vanguard Traditional IRA - 2%
Will roll my spouse's 401k into this or roll this and her current 401k into her new company's 401k.
2% $5,719 VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares

Vanguard Roth IRA - 4%
4% $11,569 VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares

TheChaz
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Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:05 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:26 pm
Your numbers don’t add up. You are saving $36k/yr and you call that 50% of your income, but you also have a mortgage that costs $50k/yr.
Last year 50% of my after tax income went to savings and debt reduction. I've included the payments toward my mortgage principal in that 50%. I did not include interest and tax/insurance payments. It's a different way of looking at savings but it makes me feel better about switching to 15 year mortgage and paying a crap ton to live in a half way decent neighborhood.

BTW, I found the website I used to calculate my FI. http://www.firecalc.com

DesertGator
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Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:12 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by DesertGator » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:09 pm

I'm a somewhat active investor that likes to review my balances once a month. Once a quarter I'd like to balance my portfolio, swapping out funds that are overvalued or heavy with ones that look like a value or are light.
You say you will be "Swapping out funds that are overvalued or heavy" on a quarterly basis. How do you determine when a fund is overvalued?

This sounds like market timing to me, not portfolio rebalancing. Most here would recommend annual rebalancing based on the calendar, not on a perceived over or under-valuation of individual funds. And you've got alot of funds across different accounts to apply your assessment to.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:06 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:13 pm

TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:05 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:26 pm
Your numbers don’t add up. You are saving $36k/yr and you call that 50% of your income, but you also have a mortgage that costs $50k/yr.
Last year 50% of my after tax income went to savings and debt reduction. I've included the payments toward my mortgage principal in that 50%. I did not include interest and tax/insurance payments. It's a different way of looking at savings but it makes me feel better about switching to 15 year mortgage and paying a crap ton to live in a half way decent neighborhood.

BTW, I found the website I used to calculate my FI. http://www.firecalc.com
Ok reading between the lines you two make $100k/year pre-tax and you have $300k in investments and $400k in home equity.

If you keep saving $40k/yr, in ten years you'll have $1.5M under normal market conditions. And let's just guess that your home equity will be $1M.

$2.5M will go a long way in Japan. You'll be fine.

TheChaz
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by TheChaz » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:42 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:13 pm
$2.5M will go a long way in Japan. You'll be fine.
I think once we reach half of that we'll make the move. After taking some time off to explore we'll open up little cafe for fun and hopefully a little supplemental income.

dh
Posts: 273
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:01 pm

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by dh » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:01 pm

TheChaz wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:53 am
FiveK wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:52 am
What is your definition of "weather"? E.g., maximum 1 year decline, length of time to recover, etc.?
Great questions, thank you. By weather I mean, If I have one asset decreasing in value I'd like to have a different one increasing in value so that I can rebalance and bring some stability to my portfolio. I'm currently 83% in stock and I don't have a rebalance plan. I can handle a 25% drop without panicking. Two years ago I committed to 90% stocks because FI was at least ten years out. Right now, I can still do 10 years if needed but I'd prefer to be FI in 7 years. Another note, I'd like to stay away from real estate funs because I already have a lot invested in my home.
During the last stock market decline, the only asset I had moving in the opposite direction were my I-Bonds (I am not bold enough to short the market). My I-Bonds increasing in value, dampened the decline in my overall portfolio. I could have rebalanced, yet since was still working I just kept new contributions going into equities (taking some solace in the fact that I was buying at cheaper prices). I think your comment about real estate is a good one. My TIAA real estate holdings also declined during the stock market decline. Like stocks, TREA has had a significant move to the plus side. Best wishes to you! :sharebeer

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Hyperborea
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Location: Osaka, Japan

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

Post by Hyperborea » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:44 pm

If you haven't already done so then make sure you look into the Japanese tax system. Planning for it may change how arrange your assets now. Here are a few links that I've collected for my own move.

Official Tax Site in English
https://www.nta.go.jp/english/index.htm

Tax Guide
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/D ... e-2017.pdf

Exit Tax
https://www.pwc.com/jp/en/taxnews-inter ... y-2015.pdf

Overseas Asset Reporting
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/community/ ... cc6jq3MwUE
"Plans are worthless, but planning is everything." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

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