GAAP wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:20 pm
Note that the Vanguard folks and AlohaJoe are talking about a longer term average in the 3-5% range, NOT
every year. The usual equity volatility would still apply -- meaning any one year period (or even 3 -year period) is not a good overall indication.
Just how long are we talking? They have been preaching poor returns for at least the last 5 years. Yet it's been a 51% return without dividends.
This is yet another case of predicting rain everyday and when the sun shines they simply say the rain is pushed back to tomorrow.
Face it they do not have a clue what the market will do.
We have had very poor returns over the last 20 years. Why are we "due" for another 20 years of below average returns? Please show any time in the us stock history that we had 40 years of below average returns? I don't even know if it's possible to torture the data by cherry picking absolute highs and absolute crash floors to find 40 years with average real returns like the Vanguard folks and AlohaJoe are talking about.
FYI returns july 1999- July 2019
Total S&P 500 Return
Annualized S&P 500 Return
Total S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested)
Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested)
Inflation Adjusted (CPI)?
So once again please let me know why after 20 years of annualized sp500 returns of 3.6% we are due for another terrible 20 years?
The previous 20 years yielded over 13% annualized indexed for inflation. 1979-1999
The 20 years before that yielded over 1.7% annualized indexed for inflation. 1959-1979
The 20 years before that yielded over 10.2% annualized indexed for inflation. 1939-1959
The 20 years before that yielded 8% annualized indexed for inflation. 1919-1939
If history is any guide at all we are more likely to have a good next 20 years than a poor next 20.