Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

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investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:09 pm

What about the ratio's for the three funds I post earlier - I am not sure what the correct ratio should be, etc.

Flyer24
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Flyer24 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:15 pm

I take my age and subtract 20 to get my bond allocation. So if you are 47 then you might pick a fund that is close to 27% bonds. Others might do age minus 10. It is just a general guidance. There is no right or wrong.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:18 pm

I am not finding one that is near 25-30% in my companies target funds.

Darth Xanadu
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:21 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:18 pm
I am not finding one that is near 25-30% in my companies target funds.
What about the 2030 fund?
My friends said stick to your guns, but instead I just got stuck.

Dottie57
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:23 pm

Flyer24 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:01 pm
investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:33 am
The information is slowly making its way into my thick skull.

My one sticking point... probably because of my involvement with the Dave Ramsey FPU and hearing him go on and on about mutual funds and 10-12% rate of return and when I look at the target funds they are no where near that and also him saying bonds don't perform as well as the stock market. Could just be FPU brainwashing..... but it just sits in the back of my head when I look at these target funds... like I am some expert- Ha!
Dave is great for managing debt but he is not considered an expert on here for investing. It is not all about performing well and chasing returns. It is about managing risks. You could be 100 percent in the stock market which is super aggressive. You might get big returns some years. Other years you may lose half your portfolio when the market tanks. Bond are a way absorbing those big market swings and volatility. As you get close to retirement, you don’t want as much volatility. The Lifefunds gradually increase your bond exposure over time so you do get less volatility as you get into the retirement phase.
Very well stated. I have 50/50 allocation because I am newly retired. I want less risk and volatility.

There is no perfect or correct asset allocation. There are good allocations based on your age, toleration of risk and need for returns. I found my tolerance for risk changed as I grew older.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:27 pm

Here is the 2030 fund
Image

Flyer24
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Flyer24 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:34 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:27 pm
Here is the 2030 fund
Image
The 2030 fund is a 70/30 ratio which is very close to what I was talking about.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:36 pm

The rating is pretty poor and the rate of return.. is that 5% not so good either...

pkcrafter
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by pkcrafter » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:40 pm

Here's more detail on the composition of the 2030 TR fund. Scroll down until you get to Holdings.

https://www.blackrock.com/investing/pro ... st-cl-fund

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund ... ture=en_US

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Paul - looked at them but not sure what I am looking at to make a decision.

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mhadden1
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by mhadden1 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:14 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:33 am
Dave Ramsey FPU and hearing him go on and on about mutual funds and 10-12% rate of return and when I look at the target funds they are no where near that
People that like to think carefully about investment returns and such usually like to think in terms of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). When Dave Ramsey talks about 10-12% returns he does not appear to be talking about CAGR, although, to be honest, I don't think it's clear exactly what he is talking about. Still, it is a number he throws out.

Here is link to a calculator that shows the S&P 500 CAGR, for time spans you select. It includes a little discussion about what makes CAGR a good metric.

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

If you look, there are some very good spans, and some very bad. The CAGR for the whole period since 1871 is 9.15%. The time span that I am second most interested is my recent past, like the last 20 years. You can see that the CAGR for that span is 8.31%.

Unfortunately the span that I am most interested in is the next 20 years - and that is not available yet. :(
investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:33 am
also him saying bonds don't perform as well as the stock market.
Generally bonds have a lower expected return than stocks, and this is associated with the fact that they are much less risky. Bogleheads choose an asset allocation between stocks and bonds to arrive at a risk level they are comfortable with. The target date funds under discussion start with a certain percentage of low-risk bonds and cash, and use some kind of formula to gradually increase that toward the target date.

Here is the thing that Dave Ramsey ignores, about holding 100% stocks while approaching or early in retirement. If the market goes down - 50%? 80%? - then you are a little bit stuck. What do you do? Delay retirement? What if you have a health problem and can't delay? The worst case is if the market goes down a lot and you have to sell low to get money because - surprise - you need money to live on. If this happens for very long it can lead to running out of money. Dave Ramsey I believe is very wealthy and so he doesn't need to worry about this sort of thing.
Oh I can't, can I? That's what they said to Thomas Edison, mighty inventor, Thomas Lindberg, mighty flyer,and Thomas Shefsky, mighty like a rose.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:53 pm

Do you guys have this 2030 fund ?

What sort of performance does it get?

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:55 pm

So if the 2030 fund is the way to go (risk/returns, etc) - I think I am clear on what to do on my employer 401k

1. Move monies to 2030 fund and future contributions (100%) to this fund
2. Leave it as Before-Tax
3. Increase contribution rate (max ideally)

Am I missing something ?

magister
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by magister » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:46 pm

Although I think you are correct to be focused on preparing for retirement, you are still young enough that there is no need to panic. You still have time to bulk up your savings and have it accumulate via compounding. Moreover, it sounds like you may not have factored in expected social security benefits for you and your wife. It may well turn out that your combined benefits, along with your wife's pension, will give you a decent monthly income on their own. It would be worth investigating your social security benefits via the SS administration's online calculator.

Based on what you've suggested, here's the order of operations I'd suggest for your savings and debt payment:

(1) Contribute to 401K enough to achieve maximum matching contributions.
(2) Pay down mortgage.
(3) Make additional 401K contributions up to the limit.
(4) Make traditional IRA contributions (as long as your income doesn't prevent them from being deductible).
(5) Contribute to taxable accounts.

Some of my advice is likely to be controversial. But it sounds like you are seeking to reduce financial risk, and in this case paying down your mortgage is probably a good move. (Your conservative approach makes sense in light of your concerns about the longevity of your job.)

The traditional/roth debate is one of the most controversial on this board. However, because you've not accumulated a lot of retirement assets, and your tax bracket is not especially low, I think it makes the most sense for you to favor traditional contributions instead of Roth. This is the more financially conservative move: if you end up with less in your retirement accounts than you'd hoped, you'll have relatively low required minimum distributions in your retirement years, and you won't end up paying much in federal income taxes. Roth contributions make the most sense for folks who have a lot saved, or expect to have a lot saved, and who are looking to mitigate their tax burden in retirement. Of course, you could also do Roth conversions later; if you lose your job you may end up in a lower tax bracket, so that would be an opportune time. (I should note that I strenuously disagree with Ramsey's view that one should favor Roth under all circumstances. Of course, dollar for dollar, Roth contributions are more valuable. But because of tax deductions, most people are able to save more in traditional accounts than in Roth accounts, so a dollar for dollar comparison can be misleading.)

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:11 pm

Magister - I don't quite follow this -"(4) Make traditional IRA contributions (as long as your income doesn't prevent them from being deductible)."

My plan is to do 1, 2 and 3 in your plan. I am still going to stick to paying off the mortgage and previously mentioned regardless of what I leave on the table for not putting it into retirement.

You know Dave says save 15% ---- so in my mind I was doing 6% through my employer 401K and then the other 9% my wife and I were going to put into the Roth IRAs...... Her pension, SS, etc I am not even really thinking about. I know I should but we cannot change anything about her pension or how its managed, etc. SS well if we get that I guess that is just on top of what ever our pension or the IRAs produce when retirement comes, if it does ever.

magister
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by magister » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:37 pm

Can you say more about what you're not following about recommendation (4)?

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:53 pm

This part - as long as your income doesn't prevent them from being deductible

emlowe
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by emlowe » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:01 pm

Assuming this is the LifePath Index 2030 Fund LINIX.

This is a collection of index funds - this means the fund will perform as well as the various indices (with some minor tracking errors). The three main indices in this fund as of May 31, 2018 are:

Russel 1000 Index as tracked by the iShares Russell 1000 Large-Cap Index Fund (BRGNX) - ~37%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index as tracked by the iShares US Aggregate Bond Index Fund (BMOIX) - 26%
MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Index as tracked by the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS) - 21%

So this fund is expected to perform as well as those indexes - this is what passive index investing is about. I read on this board a good description: You are trying to capture your share of the overall market - no better and no worse than the market as a whole.

I believe all those components of this fund are considered very good funds that do a good job tracking the indices.

An advantage to this fund is you just buy one thing - and over time, BlackRock will adjust the percentages to meet a typical risk profile as you age. For example, right now it has 70% stock. In 2030 it will have about 40% stock. So the fund manages the risk for you as you age and get closer to retirement.

(For completeness, Blackrock throws a few other things in here like a REIT index, TIPS, Small Cap Index - but those are relatively small, so I didn't bother with them)

FOGU
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by FOGU » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:06 pm

...as you can tell I am pretty dense when it comes to this stuff - to say the least.
You need to get over this mindset now. Like yesterday. You are surely accomplished in some field of endeavor, are you not? Do you think this Edward Jones guy has some magic ability that you don't? He doesn't. Yet you are giving him your money as if he is some kind of wizard. He's not. Knowing how to invest, especially in the way of Bogle, is not complicated. Stop thinking you are dense about it. You're not. Surely your Edward Jones guy wants you to think it is rocket science. It's not. Start reading. You need go no further than the recommended reading list on this forum. I recommend you start with John Bogle's own "Little Book." Look it up and check it out at the library. But any of the books on the list will help you.

Knowledge is great. But it won't do you any good if you are not disciplined about saving, investing and sticking to it. You have time. But you must save aggressively and be disciplined about your finances. It is your life. Your Edward Jones guy is looking out for his family. You must look out for yours.
~ Don't just do something. Sit there. ~

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mhadden1
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by mhadden1 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:11 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:11 pm
You know Dave says save 15%
Yeah Dave says 15% because he just says the same thing for everybody. But does he really mean 15% when you are just getting going good at 47? How about 57? 67? If I were you I would really start getting after it, just as much as possible.
investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:11 pm
Her pension, SS, etc I am not even really thinking about. I know I should but we cannot change anything about her pension or how its managed, etc.
If you understand these aspects, it might change what you choose to do on your part. There may be choices you can plan around. Like others have advised, dig into these details and use them to help you make a plan. Forewarned is forearmed.
Oh I can't, can I? That's what they said to Thomas Edison, mighty inventor, Thomas Lindberg, mighty flyer,and Thomas Shefsky, mighty like a rose.

Chief_Engineer
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Chief_Engineer » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:39 pm

Investjack -

Some of the things you are saying lead me to believe you are unfamiliar with the passive investing strategy that most Bogleheads follow. We cannot say what the rate of return will be for any investment. We tend to invest in index funds that track the stock market, so the return will be what ever the stock market ends up doing. Last year it was over +20% and in 2008 it was -37%.

If you haven't already, I would check out the wiki.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

If you prefer to learn from videos there are also these.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:B ... philosophy

magister
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by magister » Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:22 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:53 pm
This part - as long as your income doesn't prevent them from being deductible
OK, I see. Traditional IRA contributions are normally tax deductible, in the sense that your contributions are subtracted from your taxable income. However, at a certain level of income their deductibility is phased out, and eventually eliminated completely. I don't remember what the threshold is off the top of my head, but you'll want to check this before you make your contributions. Incidentally, Roth IRA eligibility is also phased out eventually, but I believe at a higher income level. If you can't deduct your traditional IRA contributions, in that case it would be better to do Roth. But otherwise, I think it would be better to do traditional in your situation. (But keep in mind that my favoring traditional is controversial, so others may offer a different opinion.)

Flyer24
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Flyer24 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:42 am

I don’t agree with step 2. He is way behind in retirement so paying down the mortgage should not be considered. Even Dave Ramsey would say the same. The 15 percent savings is a normal recommendation for someone starting their plan. However, you are late in the game and need to catch up. Why would you focus on paying down such a low rate mortgage when you can get better returns in the market? You are also missing out on the effects of compounding.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:58 am

Would I be correct in at looking at this :

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/20 ... an-at-work

I file Married Filing Jointly - My AGI for 2017 was more than $119,000

That said, if I am not getting the deduction how does that play into where I should direct my contributions Before-Tax or Roth ?

In regards to paying off the home - wife wants it done so I have no choice I don't have the energy to fight that battle.

Chief_Engineer
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Chief_Engineer » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:31 am

investjack019 wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:58 am
Would I be correct in at looking at this :

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/20 ... an-at-work

I file Married Filing Jointly - My AGI for 2017 was more than $119,000

That said, if I am not getting the deduction how does that play into where I should direct my contributions Before-Tax or Roth ?

In regards to paying off the home - wife wants it done so I have no choice I don't have the energy to fight that battle.
Make before tax contributions to your 401k. You're in a high tax bracket so you want to minimize the taxes you pay right now so you can save more.

You cannot make a tax deductible contribution to a traditional IRA. Is you AGI < $189,000? If so you can make a full contribution to a Roth IRA. If your AGI is higher, you will need to look into a "Backdoor" Roth IRA.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:36 am

We are in the $140s for AGI.

mortfree
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by mortfree » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:46 am

investjack019 wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:11 pm

You know Dave says save 15% ----
You know the contribution limits are:
401k: 18,500 per person
roth/Trad IRA: 5,500 per person


why wouldn't you try to max for each of you, or one of you?

rough calcs using AGI provided... 0.15 * 140k = 21,000. what is your actual contribution dollars towards retirement? you said 6% and 9% but that might not mean 15% of 140k.

Tax savings alone on your gross income should be a big factor, as well as playing catchup. Speaking of which, I think you are 47 now. when one or both of you hit 50, those limits above increase...

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:04 am

I do understand these limits so I do need to reassess my contributions especially into my Employer 401K. For my wife the only thing we can do is max out the Roth. I have some upcoming expenses in July and once those are out of my hair I am going to re-evaluate what I can adjust my employer 401K too. I am thinking I can probably go to 10-12%. Will never hit the max during my mortgage payoff.

Now speaking about those EJ Roth accounts....... As stated before never really felt that good about them.

I called Vanguard and it sounds like I can make the move and go into a 2030 account as the minimum is $1k. However, she said I would want to liquidate at EJ and then do the transfer. I am not exactly sure what that all means.

If I can move to a 2030 and just do automatic or manual contributions I am fine with that. The less dealings with EJ the better in my opinion.

magister
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by magister » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:29 pm

Flyer24 wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:42 am
I don’t agree with step 2. He is way behind in retirement so paying down the mortgage should not be considered. Even Dave Ramsey would say the same. The 15 percent savings is a normal recommendation for someone starting their plan. However, you are late in the game and need to catch up. Why would you focus on paying down such a low rate mortgage when you can get better returns in the market? You are also missing out on the effects of compounding.
I think this is a fair point, and I understand that my recommendation to pay off the mortgage early is controversial. It was based on the OP's concerns that he may lose his job in the next several years (and be unable to find a comparable one), as well as his apparently conservative attitude toward his finances. This course of action would minimize the risk that the OP would lose his home to foreclosure if he is laid off from his job. In rural Minnesota, with a paid off house, he could probably live comfortably on only one income, and still have some left over to save. As you've mentioned, the disadvantage of this strategy is the opportunity cost of investing more over the next three years. Another disadvantage is that, while he is paying down his mortgage, the OP will likely also pay higher taxes. This is a judgment call, and the OP (and his wife) will have to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of each option for themselves.

@OP: Since it sounds like you are not eligible for a deductibe traditional IRA (because of your high income), it may be worth investigating whether your wife has any tax-deferred savings vehicles available through her workplace. If I'm remembering correctly, you said that she works for the state. If that's right, she'll probably have a 403(b) available, and maybe a 457 plan. These are both tax-deferred savings vehicles that would allow you to make additional retirement contributions, and save you from paying income tax on them at your current rate.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:18 pm

How am I going to pay higher taxes with a paid for mortgage ?

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BL
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by BL » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:39 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:18 pm
How am I going to pay higher taxes with a paid for mortgage ?
If you use the money for deductible retirement savings, like traditional 401k, 457, etc., you won't pay tax on it now. If you use it instead to pay off mortgage, you first lose to taxes by whatever your tax bracket (fed. + state) rate is. You could even apply the (22% + state%) tax savings to the mortgage or to Roth IRAs. So, any money you can save tax-deferred gives you 22 + state % back in tax savings.

You may be in a lower bracket in retirement, so you would not pay as high a rate. It is also a decision you could kick down the road for now, and pay it off just a bit later, or shortly after you retire. I know it would be a good feeling to have it paid off, and no one knows what the market will do in the future, so you will have to do what seems right after considering the alternatives.

Social Security is taxed at 0-85%, depending on income, so at least some is not taxed at all. (Delaying SS as many months as you can means a larger COLA-enhanced annuity for the rest of your life. Working as long as you can also helps, but is not always easy.)
Last edited by BL on Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Darth Xanadu
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Darth Xanadu » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:43 pm

BL wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:39 pm

Social Security is taxed at 0-85%, depending on income, so at least some is not taxed at all.
To be clear, I think you mean up to 85% of SS payments can be subject to income tax.
My friends said stick to your guns, but instead I just got stuck.

soccerrules
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by soccerrules » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:52 pm

OP-
I think you are trying to drink from the fire hose right now. I posted the other day -- SLOW down.

Take a little time and read up on personal finance. You seem to know enough info to be dangerous, but probably not enough to helpful.

I would not do anything for the next 30 days except read and process. Then come back to re-read the suggestions.

best of luck to you
Don't let your outflow exceed your income or your upkeep will be your downfall.

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BL
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by BL » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:02 pm

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:43 pm
BL wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:39 pm

Social Security is taxed at 0-85%, depending on income, so at least some is not taxed at all.
To be clear, I think you mean up to 85% of SS payments can be subject to income tax.
Yes.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:37 am

If I sleep on it I will never make a change.

Today I changed my employer 401k Before-Tax contributions from 6% to 12%

I am still uncertain about the 2030 fund. What is its current YTD return ?

Flyer24
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by Flyer24 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:41 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:37 am
If I sleep on it I will never make a change.

Today I changed my employer 401k Before-Tax contributions from 6% to 12%

I am still uncertain about the 2030 fund. What is its current YTD return ?
If you look a little bit up on your thread, you posted a screenshot of the fund. It says it on the right hand side of the picture what the performance had been.

mortfree
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by mortfree » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:35 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:37 am


I am still uncertain about the 2030 fund. What is its current YTD return ?
You keep asking that question about YTD performance.

I believe the key is that it is 70% stocks and 30% bonds. You get whatever the market returns.

I think what you should be asking is how much risk is associated with this fund. Since it is not 100% stocks the YTD will be “lower”.

Real BHers can correct me if I’m wrong.

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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by pkcrafter » Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:48 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:37 am
If I sleep on it I will never make a change.

Today I changed my employer 401k Before-Tax contributions from 6% to 12%

I am still uncertain about the 2030 fund. What is its current YTD return ?
Jack, you seem to have removed all information in your first post, so I'll have to just provide a few general comments.

1. You keep asking about what returns the 2030 fund are going to provide. No one knows what they might be in the short term, and that could be 10 years or more. Market returns are volatile and can be all over the place, which is why there is a premium for investing in the market in the first place. People reduce their stock (equity) exposure as they approach retirement. In the big picture a 70/30 will provide about 70% of whatever the market returns. In the case of a bear market (more than a 20% market drop) a 70/30 portfolio will limit the drop to about 30% less than what ever the market drop is. Index funds win because of lower expenses being extracted from returns. EJ is probably charging you a 1.35% advisory fee plus the higher cost of the active funds they use.

It's also important to remember that index funds beat about 80% of all funds over periods of 20 years, and those that do outperform are due mostly to luck because the winners cannot be identified in advance.

2. A target fund is just an easier (to some) way to hold a diversified portfolio of U.S. stock, international stock, and bonds because it auto-rebalances almost on a daily basis to maintain the allocations. As you've noticed, the stock allocation will go down year by year and if you want to maintain 75/25 or 60/40 you will have to change TR funds every 5 years or so or the TR fund will drop equity exposure to less than your target. At some point you might decide to ride the fund's auto reduction in equities.

This appears to be your current portfolio--
27% BlackRock S&P 500 Index Fund
13% BlackRock Russell 2000 Index Fund
18% BlackRock S&P 400 Mid Cap Index Fund
14% BlackRock MSCI EAFE Index Fund
03% BlackRock Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index Fund

25% BNY Mellon Stable Value Fund
This portfolio is 75/25, but the heavy overweight in mid and small and holds no emerging markets. The overweight will increase the risk and create tracking error. Tracking error means the portfolio will not follow the performance of total stock market, but over time it may provide higher returns. If that's what you want it's OK. If not, you could use:

Russell 3000 (total market)
BlackRock MSCI EAFE Index Fund
BlackRock MSCI Emerging Market Index Fund (these two in the right ratio would equal total international) Total international recommendations are about 20-40% of equity.
BTC Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (total bond market)
Stable value fund (bond equivalent)

No point in wondering what future returns are going to be, it depends. "In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long term it's a weighing machine." Benjamin Graham.

Good move to increase contributions. I know you want to pay down the mortgage, but the earlier you can invest the longer you have to compound returns.

https://www.investopedia.com/walkthroug ... nding.aspx

I know you are still a little confused and it's normal at first, but it really isn't difficult. You will get it all. Don't listen to Ramsey when it come to investing and potential returns.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:51 pm

I guess what has me tripped up on 2030 is my current mix has YTD of like 3% but the 2030 is like half a percent.....

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mhadden1
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by mhadden1 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:50 pm

investjack019 wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:51 pm
I guess what has me tripped up on 2030 is my current mix has YTD of like 3% but the 2030 is like half a percent.....
Your current mix has done better than the 2030 fund because you are heavy in small caps, and they have done well this year so far. They don't always do better.

The Bogleheads advice will pretty much always be to invest in an appropriate allocation of inexpensive index funds, and then take what the market gives you.
Oh I can't, can I? That's what they said to Thomas Edison, mighty inventor, Thomas Lindberg, mighty flyer,and Thomas Shefsky, mighty like a rose.

pkcrafter
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by pkcrafter » Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:03 pm

mhadden is correct, both small cap and mid cap have strong performance over the last year, but both are higher risk than the S&P500 or total market. These small cap funds are hit and miss and they could easily perform poorly for the next 5 years. Whenever you compare funds or portfolio you have to consider the risk taken. Your portfolio has much more weight in mid and small than total market or LP 2030.

Bottom line is you cannot compare two portfolios without accounting for the risk in the portfolios.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

investjack019
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by investjack019 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:17 am

So in the scheme of Risk - do all funds have a risk rating?

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BL
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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by BL » Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:56 am

If you look at Callan's table of returns:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/File:Ca ... eturns.png
You will see that the various types of funds seem to take random turns on which will perform best each year.

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Re: Struggling - Seeking Advice to Get On Track

Post by pkcrafter » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:20 am

Types of risk

https://www.garycarmell.com/howard-marks-risk-return/

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/ ... fund-risk/

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund ... ture=en_US

I'll also add that investor behavior is the number one reason for not getting the returns one should get.
Cost is the number two reason.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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