MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

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md&pharmacist
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MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm

Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.

I'll start with my last transaction:

Purchased DXQLX on February 8, 2018 $20.3/share. Closed Friday, June 8, 2018 at 26.09. So far a healthy 28% return over four months. I am relatively confident in the tech heavy Nasdaq over the longer term. I find technology to be one of the strongest spots in the overall market at this time.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... x7YsFdayBA

Will try to post future moves as real time as possible.

Feel free to analyze the fund/timing and comment on how to improve returns.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:25 am


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BeBH65
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by BeBH65 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:02 am

Thank you for starting this thread. I expect that a lot of readers will learn a lot from it.

Thought: Maybe you do not need to wait for new transactions, maybe you can also add your last x transactions to the thread to kickstart it.
BeBH65. (only an investment enthusiast, not a financial adviser, perform your due diligence).

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by goblue100 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:39 am

For those not looking up the symbol, DXQLX is a leveraged fund whose goal is 250% of the NASDAQ 100. The er is 1.5%.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:25 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm
Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.

I'll start with my last transaction:

Purchased DXQLX on February 8, 2018 $20.3/share. Closed Friday, June 8, 2018 at 26.09. So far a healthy 28% return over four months. I am relatively confident in the tech heavy Nasdaq over the longer term. I find technology to be one of the strongest spots in the overall market at this time.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... x7YsFdayBA

Will try to post future moves as real time as possible.

Feel free to analyze the fund/timing and comment on how to improve returns.
People were interested in your specific calls, given as you made them.

However, they were also interested, I think, in your overall investment portfolio return claims. Where the portfolio includes your stock funds, bond funds, and cash available for investing.

Presumably you are using something like Excel to compute your return via XIRR. For example, you had X dollars invested on Jan 1, 2018, you added Y dollars on Feb 2, and Z dollars on Feb 18, then pulled some money out on May 10. At close of business on June 8, what was the rate of return for the year, and how did you compute it?

And, also useful, what was the approximate stock/bond ratio over that time (you could lump cash into the bonds, or have an explicit stock/bond/cash allocation, say 80/10/10).

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:35 am

This is going to be a great thread, so thanks for the attempt.

But a problem is that just posting a trade is not going to be helpful to others. We kinda of need to have the trade posted as it happens and the percentage of your total portfolio that the trade entails. I can see running a total-market-weighted 3-fund portfolio with some side excursions off into things like DXQLX with up to 10% of your total portfolio every now and then. I can also see going 100% DXQLX if the portfolio is under $50,000 in value. But I don't see doing more than 20% DXQLX on a $5,000,000 portfolio.

Also we don't know if you also bought DXRSX, but don't want to tell us about it. :twisted:
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by columbia » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:58 am

Well, this is an interesting companion to another thread:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=251285


:greedy

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:02 am

This is the requisite caution that md&pharmacist's approach to investing is not for everyone. In this forum, we recommend that investors do not attempt this approach and should refer to the wiki article Risk tolerance for background info.

That being said, opposing points of view are welcome.

The Direxion Monthly NASDAQ-100 Bull 2X Fund is a leveraged fund.

The wiki has some background info: Inverse and leveraged ETFs
wiki wrote:Inverse and leveraged ETFs are not suitable for Boglehead-style (buy and hold) investing. In fact, they are not suitable for investing at all - only for short-term "trading" (speculation) which is clearly stated by the fund provider. Please read the FINRA alert, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs: Specialized Products with Extra Risks for Buy-and-Hold Investors.
For context, md&pharmacist is not the first member to use leverage. Please see this classic forum thread: A different approach to asset allocation (Sep 16, 2007)

(I changed the thread title to explain that "MD&P" is "md&pharmacist".)
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:05 am

I forgot to mention that February 8, 2018 was an RBD for many things.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:08 am

^^^ Acronym:
Wiki wrote:RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by beezquimby » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:14 am

LOL trying to average 30-40% return, dont need to read anything more after reading that.
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm
Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.

I'll start with my last transaction:

Purchased DXQLX on February 8, 2018 $20.3/share. Closed Friday, June 8, 2018 at 26.09. So far a healthy 28% return over four months. I am relatively confident in the tech heavy Nasdaq over the longer term. I find technology to be one of the strongest spots in the overall market at this time.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... x7YsFdayBA

Will try to post future moves as real time as possible.

Feel free to analyze the fund/timing and comment on how to improve returns.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by letsgobobby » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:29 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:35 am
This is going to be a great thread
For once I disagree with livesoft.

longinvest
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by longinvest » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:09 am

Minimally, we'd need enough information to fill an unbiased and public Bogleheads-type return spreadsheet to calculate both money-weighted and time-weighted returns.

In other words, the following rules must be rigorously followed:
  1. A new $0 hypothetical portfolio is started today, June 10, 2018.
  2. Every (cash) contribution to the portfolio must be published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made.
  3. Every (cash) withdrawal from the portfolio must be published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made.
  4. No other type of contribution and withdrawal is allowed.
  5. Every trade must published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made. (It's OK not to publish it before it is made, to avoid front-running).
  6. For each trade, we need the security ticker, the number of units bought, the average price paid, and any transaction fee involved.
  7. Day trading isn't allowed. Each security must be kept in the portfolio for at least 1 full month.
  8. Shorting and leveraging aren't allowed, but the use of funds/ETFs which use them internally is OK.
It would be foolish for any Bogleheads member to believe an anonymous claim about buying a financial security at a short-term profit more than 4 months ago!
Last edited by longinvest on Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:15 am

^Sorry, trades cannot be published 24 hours late. They have to be published within a minute or two of execution, but preferably BEFORE execution.

And day trading is most certainly allowed as long as orders are published in near real-time. Shorting and leveage is also allowed.

No sane reader of this forum is going to try to duplicate what MD&P is going to do. That's the fun of this thread: We can watch in near real-time all that happens.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by mortfree » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:20 am

What is on your watch list, MDP?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by delamer » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:36 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:02 am
This is the requisite caution that md&pharmacist's approach to investing is not for everyone. In this forum, we recommend that investors do not attempt this approach and should refer to the wiki article Risk tolerance for background info.

That being said, opposing points of view are welcome.

The Direxion Monthly NASDAQ-100 Bull 2X Fund is a leveraged fund.

The wiki has some background info: Inverse and leveraged ETFs
wiki wrote:Inverse and leveraged ETFs are not suitable for Boglehead-style (buy and hold) investing. In fact, they are not suitable for investing at all - only for short-term "trading" (speculation) which is clearly stated by the fund provider. Please read the FINRA alert, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs: Specialized Products with Extra Risks for Buy-and-Hold Investors.
For context, md&pharmacist is not the first member to use leverage. Please see this classic forum thread: A different approach to asset allocation (Sep 16, 2007)

(I changed the thread title to explain that "MD&P" is "md&pharmacist".)
While I appreciate the warning at the top of this post, I honestly do not understand why this opposing point of view is welcome here.

There is a set of Boglehead principles: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

While there are many financial issues that forum members can disagree on (from car loans to vacation plans to asset allocation) and still be Bogleheads, it is clear that the OP has a different philosophy about investing that is antithetical to the principles above.

I don’t see this site as a general investing forum; I see it as a forum people who share a common investment approach and want to help each other and new investors/converts who are trying to learn about that approach.

I also don’t see the OP’s investing posts as useful, even as a “what not to do” example.

Respectfully,
delamer

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by longinvest » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:02 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:15 am
^Sorry, trades cannot be published 24 hours late. They have to be published within a minute or two of execution, but preferably BEFORE execution.

And day trading is most certainly allowed as long as orders are published in near real-time. Shorting and leveage is also allowed.

No sane reader of this forum is going to try to duplicate what MD&P is going to do. That's the fun of this thread: We can watch in near real-time all that happens.
In that case, the spreadsheet I linked to won't work.

I'm already annoyed by the constant active investing noise on our forum. I see no need to add day trading junk on top of it.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by bberris » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:24 am

mortfree wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:20 am
What is on your watch list, MDP?
You can screen for highly leveraged ETFs. You know, the ones that generate 40 % returns if the market goes up 10 %.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:48 am

longinvest wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:02 am
I'm already annoyed by the constant active investing noise on our forum. I see no need to add day trading junk on top of it.
Ah, yes. But Bogleheads will help investors navigate between the day-trading Scylla and the leveraged Charybdis with ease. But that is only if they can first tie themselves to the 3-fund portfolio mast while the Sirens call "Slice-and-Dice! Slice-and-Dice!"
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:12 pm

Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:28 pm

Many people requested this information, now when he makes an effort people bash him? If you don't want to read it, don't. I don't see how it's off-topic at all. It's definitely personal investing.

I think I will follow this thread (but not the advice) with interest.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by hilink73 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:29 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm
Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.

I'll start with my last transaction:

Purchased DXQLX on February 8, 2018 $20.3/share. Closed Friday, June 8, 2018 at 26.09. So far a healthy 28% return over four months. I am relatively confident in the tech heavy Nasdaq over the longer term. I find technology to be one of the strongest spots in the overall market at this time.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... x7YsFdayBA

Will try to post future moves as real time as possible.

Feel free to analyze the fund/timing and comment on how to improve returns.

You have to post your trades in advance. Everything else is absolutely meaningless...

longinvest
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by longinvest » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:40 pm

longinvest wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:09 am
Minimally, we'd need enough information to fill an unbiased and public Bogleheads-type return spreadsheet to calculate both money-weighted and time-weighted returns.

In other words, the following rules must be rigorously followed:
  1. A new $0 hypothetical portfolio is started today, June 10, 2018.
  2. Every (cash) contribution to the portfolio must be published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made.
  3. Every (cash) withdrawal from the portfolio must be published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made.
  4. No other type of contribution and withdrawal is allowed.
  5. Every trade must published in this forum topic within 24 hours after it has been made. (It's OK not to publish it before it is made, to avoid front-running).
  6. For each trade, we need the security ticker, the number of units bought, the average price paid, and any transaction fee involved.
  7. Day trading isn't allowed. Each security must be kept in the portfolio for at least 1 full month.
  8. Shorting and leveraging aren't allowed, but the use of funds/ETFs which use them internally is OK.
It would be foolish for any Bogleheads member to believe an anonymous claim about buying a financial security at a short-term profit more than 4 months ago!
I do submit again the above rules, which I think would be fair.

Given that the OP already has a portfolio, it would be OK to consider that a cash contribution equal to the current market value of his portfolio holdings is made today and bought at Friday's closing price, assuming he discloses them today, or before the opening of markets tomorrow.
Last edited by longinvest on Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:50 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by randomizer » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:54 pm

Buckle up Dorothy, because Kansas is goin’ bye-bye.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:06 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:02 am
This is the requisite caution that md&pharmacist's approach to investing is not for everyone. In this forum, we recommend that investors do not attempt this approach and should refer to the wiki article Risk tolerance for background info.

That being said, opposing points of view are welcome.

The Direxion Monthly NASDAQ-100 Bull 2X Fund is a leveraged fund.

The wiki has some background info: Inverse and leveraged ETFs
wiki wrote:Inverse and leveraged ETFs are not suitable for Boglehead-style (buy and hold) investing. In fact, they are not suitable for investing at all - only for short-term "trading" (speculation) which is clearly stated by the fund provider. Please read the FINRA alert, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs: Specialized Products with Extra Risks for Buy-and-Hold Investors.
For context, md&pharmacist is not the first member to use leverage. Please see this classic forum thread: A different approach to asset allocation (Sep 16, 2007)

(I changed the thread title to explain that "MD&P" is "md&pharmacist".)
Thank you moderator, I wholeheartedly agree that this may not be for many. I also see that there are some who do want to see what I do, and my goal is to accurately explain what I do and hopefully to learn from them as well.

A few disclosures before I continue:
1- Everyone invests at their own risk. This is what I do, not necessarily what others should do.
2- I am at about 3 x FI and do not intend to RE, so I have a continuous and healthy income stream, I do not recommend anyone use any significant portion of their assets targeting higher risk for higher reward unless they are comfortably FI AND have a good income stream that more than covers their expenses. I am also in my mid-40's, with plenty of time to recover from major corrections, investors have to take their own circumstances into consideration.
3- Currently, my investments in the market are only about 15% of my total NW, far less than many who have posted here. I will still be fine in the event of a major down-turn. Everyone, please know your situation and risk tolerance.
4- I am not an investment professional. I just have a passion for this.
5- I have been studying the markets and trading on some level for over 20 years. If you want passive and easy, this is definitely not for you. I study the markets daily. Currently I just trade funds and study the sector news, fund history, holdings, managers, etc. I am prepared to sell tomorrow if the next major correction ensues. I have avoided any significant losses in the past and intend to continue doing so. One cannot learn to do what I do overnight by following this string. Years of online research and learning from one's past errors have no substitute.
6- I see nothing wrong with dollar cost averaged index investing, and I respect those that want to continue to take that route. I ask that those who are vehemently against active and/or market timed investing to respect those that may want to better understand this (by looking seriously at this thread) by avoiding disruptive comments of no value.
7- I do not predict. I only absorb the information available to me when it is available to me. As such, I have to be nimble. I am willing to change course if the information changes, so what I believe to be true today is not necessarily so tomorrow.
8- My investing philosophy extends to other aspects of my life, allowing me to diversify beyond the markets and invest in my own commercial real estate ventures, personal business, etc. Diversification goes beyond the stock market. I believe there is good and bad diversification, which I will explain later into this discussion.

Thanks. I wish you all health, emotional well-being and financial prosperity.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by beezquimby » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:10 pm

LOL, I personally am prepared to buy when the next correction ensues.
I am prepared to sell tomorrow if the next major correction ensues.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:50 pm

From the previous post (2 up from here), let me expand the acronyms in this section:
2- I am at about 3 x Financial Independence and do not intend to Retire Early, so I have a continuous and healthy income stream, I do not recommend anyone use any significant portion of their assets targeting higher risk for higher reward unless they are comfortably Financially Independent AND have a good income stream that more than covers their expenses. I am also in my mid-40's, with plenty of time to recover from major corrections, investors have to take their own circumstances into consideration.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by longinvest » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:03 pm

Still waiting for the detailed list of securities in the initial portfolio.
Last edited by longinvest on Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:04 pm

randomizer wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:54 pm
Buckle up Dorothy, because Kansas is goin’ bye-bye.
Love it. Love to see a lighthearted sense of humor here.

The tornado of prosperity is about to come through here very, very soon! The open minded will all be buckled up.

Gotta say it...love the avatar too!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:15 pm

longinvest wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:03 pm
Still waiting for the detailed list of securities in the initial portfolio.
I read your post before you edited it. I will say that the power of Social Media like Bogleheads.org has quite the draw. A thread like this one may help no one unless the OP crashes and burns publicly here. But the thread will also help the OP by providing a no-foolin' public trade diary as long as trades are published in near real-time. And since it is public, it actually may make the OP more cautious.

Let's hope the OP divulges his thought process along with any trades, too.

Besides I think even Taylor Larimore posts his trades here on the forum. The last one he made was a few years ago, so maybe you missed it.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by beezquimby » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:46 pm

Your post here comes across like something a hedge fund manager might write (of course we all know how well they usually do as beating the market). Sorry but anyone can put money into a leverage mutual fund sell a few months later, you just can’t do that consistently


have been studying the markets and trading on some level for over 20 years. If you want passive and easy, this is definitely not for you. I study the markets daily. Currently I just trade funds and study the sector news, fund history, holdings, managers, etc. I am prepared to sell tomorrow if the next major correction ensues. I have avoided any significant losses in the past and intend to continue doing so. One cannot learn to do what I do overnight by following this string. Years of online research and learning from one's past errors have no substitute.
6- I see nothing wrong with dollar cost averaged index investing, and I respect those that want to continue to take that route. I ask that those who are vehemently against active and/or market timed investing to respect those that may want to better understand this (by looking seriously at this thread) by avoiding disruptive comments of no value.
7- I do not predict. I only absorb the information available to me when it is available to me. As such, I have to be nimble. I am willing to change course if the information changes, so what I believe to be true today is not necessarily so tomorrow

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by carguyny » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm

Why no options or portfolio margin instead of using levered funds?

How do you manage liquidity risk in a market sell off of a thinly traded fund like DXQLX?

Have you factored in the costs for the underlying swaps that DXQLX to determine the full ER? This is where these strategies make their money.

Have you compared the return of the same trade using Interactive Brokers Portfolio Margin and creating 2.5X exposure using QQQ?
I just did a very rough calc of your trade using QQQ, buying $150k with equity, margin of $300k for $450k total exposure on Feb 8. After taking out interest costs for 4 months and repaying the $300k margin your return on equity would have been 41.04% So clearly DXQLX is costing a lot of gain and likely increase losses significantly.

I'm a professional investor and can't share trade ideas, but as a rule of thumb when the products get more exotic, the profits for the financial institutions involved go up exponentially. They make everyone else look like good guys...

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by sergeant » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:03 pm

I may follow along as long as his trades are posted near real-time. Many here have posted of unbelievable returns that can not be verified. I hope the OP keeps posting, but not trades made months ago.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:50 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:35 am
This is going to be a great thread, so thanks for the attempt.

But a problem is that just posting a trade is not going to be helpful to others. We kinda of need to have the trade posted as it happens and the percentage of your total portfolio that the trade entails. I can see running a total-market-weighted 3-fund portfolio with some side excursions off into things like DXQLX with up to 10% of your total portfolio every now and then. I can also see going 100% DXQLX if the portfolio is under $50,000 in value. But I don't see doing more than 20% DXQLX on a $5,000,000 portfolio.

Also we don't know if you also bought DXRSX, but don't want to tell us about it. :twisted:
Yup!

How about posting it *BEFORE* you send that Order via your broker.

Otherwise, I too can claim I timed the bottom of the market and bought $10MM worth of E-minis using $1.5MM in capital (*).
(*) Disclaimer: I did not do that above

AlphaLess
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:15 pm
Besides I think even Taylor Larimore posts his trades here on the forum. The last one he made was a few years ago, so maybe you missed it.
Wow. Taylor Larimore trades?
I want in on that information, please!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:55 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:25 am
DXQLX vs. category:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/dxqlx
With due respect, the category for DLQLX would be all 2x leveraged funds for NASDAQ-100.

From a quantitative finance point of view, DLQLX needs to be examined using these two criteria:
- how well it is tracking its objective (2x NASDAQ),
- how much the fees are.

Comparing a 2x fund with a 1x fund is a fools errand.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:03 pm

carguyny wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm
Why no options or portfolio margin instead of using levered funds?
Or, why not futures, for example?
carguyny wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm
How do you manage liquidity risk in a market sell off of a thinly traded fund like DXQLX?
Bingo!
carguyny wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm
Have you factored in the costs for the underlying swaps that DXQLX to determine the full ER? This is where these strategies make their money.

Have you compared the return of the same trade using Interactive Brokers Portfolio Margin and creating 2.5X exposure using QQQ?
I just did a very rough calc of your trade using QQQ, buying $150k with equity, margin of $300k for $450k total exposure on Feb 8. After taking out interest costs for 4 months and repaying the $300k margin your return on equity would have been 41.04% So clearly DXQLX is costing a lot of gain and likely increase losses significantly.
And, that's why you never use leveraged ETFs for a leveraged position.
QQQ trades what? 41MM shares, on average, or $7 BILLION a day!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ?p=QQQ

And CME:NQ trades like 500K contracts a day:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity- ... e=20180608

With 20x Nasdaq Index notional per contract ($150K), that's $75B a day.

So why not use *MUCH* more liquid, and price-wise efficient products?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by CyclingDuo » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:04 pm

beezquimby wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:14 am
LOL trying to average 30-40% return, dont need to read anything more after reading that.
Whoot! Whoot!

Let's keep the OP honest. Brokerage account screen pix of the investment account(s) and updates where these trades are taking place please. :beer
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:08 pm

^Screen captures can be faked, so they add nothing to the time stamp of the post that announced the trade.

Image
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:19 pm

carguyny wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm
Why no options or portfolio margin instead of using levered funds?

How do you manage liquidity risk in a market sell off of a thinly traded fund like DXQLX?

Have you factored in the costs for the underlying swaps that DXQLX to determine the full ER? This is where these strategies make their money.

Have you compared the return of the same trade using Interactive Brokers Portfolio Margin and creating 2.5X exposure using QQQ?
I just did a very rough calc of your trade using QQQ, buying $150k with equity, margin of $300k for $450k total exposure on Feb 8. After taking out interest costs for 4 months and repaying the $300k margin your return on equity would have been 41.04% So clearly DXQLX is costing a lot of gain and likely increase losses significantly.

I'm a professional investor and can't share trade ideas, but as a rule of thumb when the products get more exotic, the profits for the financial institutions involved go up exponentially. They make everyone else look like good guys...
Thanks for your objective feedback.

I've not been comfortable with options trading to date, but definitely continue to research this investment vehicle.

Regarding margin trading, please correct me if I'm wrong. If in the example you gave, I would buy $450K in QQQ in lieu of $150K of DXQLX or $450K? I'm under the assumption it's $150K. If the trade goes bad (market crash), I would only be on the hook for the $150K of DXQLX versus the $450K plus interest in your scenario? I'll definitely research more which scenario comes out ahead in the worst case scenario - I am willing to give up some best case scenario profit for protection in worst case scenario if that's the case. Your scenario may be better than mine here, I have to ponder it for sure. Also if the value drops in your scenario, a margin call can also be a factor - in your scenario my initial equity position is 33.33%, maintenance margin requirement usually 25-30%?

Interactive brokers is probably the only broker I'll consider margin trading given everyone else's margin rates are much higher.

Regarding liquidity, my total investment after the gains in DXQLX is currently valued around $190K, I believe small enough so liquidity not an issue under normal market conditions. Otherwise, keep in mind this is why I only put in the markets that which I can comfortably afford to lose if Armageddon is upon us. I am not there yet, but over time I do not want any holding to give me much more than 5% exposure of my portfolio.

Thanks again, I'll definitely look further at the issues you bring to light.

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Stay the course

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:23 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm
livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:15 pm
Besides I think even Taylor Larimore posts his trades here on the forum. The last one he made was a few years ago, so maybe you missed it.
Wow. Taylor Larimore trades?
I want in on that information, please!
Bogleheads:

Each year I sell shares of my Total Bond Market Index Fund in my IRA to meet RMD (Required Minimum Distributions). I reinvest the proceeds in my taxable S&P 500 fund. That's my trading.

I've learned (the hard way) to listen to Jack Bogle who wrote in Common Sense on Mutual Funds:
Stay the course. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:29 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:08 pm
^Screen captures can be faked, so they add nothing to the time stamp of the post that announced the trade.
True. Also, the OP can voluntarily sign a paper instructing his broker to deliver duplicate statements (e.g., trade confirmations) to a designated arbiter.

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Re: Stay the course

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:30 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:23 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm
livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:15 pm
Besides I think even Taylor Larimore posts his trades here on the forum. The last one he made was a few years ago, so maybe you missed it.
Wow. Taylor Larimore trades?
I want in on that information, please!
Bogleheads:

Each year I sell shares of my Total Bond Market Index Fund in my IRA to meet RMD (Required Minimum Distributions). I reinvest the proceeds in my taxable S&P 500 fund. That's my trading.

I've learned (the hard way) to listen to Jack Bogle who wrote in Common Sense on Mutual Funds:
Stay the course. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Thanks, Taylor, for the clarification.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:37 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:19 pm
carguyny wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:01 pm
Have you compared the return of the same trade using Interactive Brokers Portfolio Margin and creating 2.5X exposure using QQQ?
I just did a very rough calc of your trade using QQQ, buying $150k with equity, margin of $300k for $450k total exposure on Feb 8. After taking out interest costs for 4 months and repaying the $300k margin your return on equity would have been 41.04% So clearly DXQLX is costing a lot of gain and likely increase losses significantly.

I'm a professional investor and can't share trade ideas, but as a rule of thumb when the products get more exotic, the profits for the financial institutions involved go up exponentially. They make everyone else look like good guys...
Regarding margin trading, please correct me if I'm wrong. If in the example you gave, I would buy $450K in QQQ in lieu of $150K of DXQLX or $450K? I'm under the assumption it's $150K. If the trade goes bad (market crash), I would only be on the hook for the $150K of DXQLX versus the $450K plus interest in your scenario? I'll definitely research more which scenario comes out ahead in the worst case scenario - I am willing to give up some best case scenario profit for protection in worst case scenario if that's the case. Your scenario may be better than mine here, I have to ponder it for sure. Also if the value drops in your scenario, a margin call can also be a factor - in your scenario my initial equity position is 33.33%, maintenance margin requirement usually 25-30%?

Interactive brokers is probably the only broker I'll consider margin trading given everyone else's margin rates are much higher.

Regarding liquidity, my total investment after the gains in DXQLX is currently valued around $190K, I believe small enough so liquidity not an issue under normal market conditions. Otherwise, keep in mind this is why I only put in the markets that which I can comfortably afford to lose if Armageddon is upon us. I am not there yet, but over time I do not want any holding to give me much more than 5% exposure of my portfolio.

Thanks again, I'll definitely look further at the issues you bring to light.
Carguyny has created a 3x leverage situation (buy $450K of QQQ using $150K of equity).
DXQLX is 2x (or 2.5x).

The difference between linear leverage and the one offered by DXQLX is that (I presume) DXQLX is DAILY REBALANCING.
What that means is that when market goes straight down, you will lose MORE with straight line leverage vs DAILY REBALANCING.
However, where you pay for that when market goes whip-saw.
E.g., if market goes up 1% on day 1, and then down 1% on day 2, then the linear leverage is (roughly) flat, while your position in DXQLX would lose money.

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Re: Stay the course

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:49 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:30 pm
Thanks, Taylor, for the clarification.
I was thinking more about this trade:
viewtopic.php?p=1617638#p1617638
and this trade:
viewtopic.php?p=3426998#p3426998
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:39 pm

mortfree wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:20 am
What is on your watch list, MDP?
Well, the first thing I consider is sector before researching and choosing what I find to be the fund I feel has the best mix of holdings within the sector and the funds long term performance, indicative of the talent of the fund managers.

One of the issues I have with index investing is that you are buying not just great companies but also mediocre companies and bad companies, or another way of putting it strong, mediocre and poorly performing sectors. In all my years of doing this I find that there are outperforming sectors that continue to outperform for years or decades and under-performing sectors that under-perform for years or decades. So by weeding out the poor sectors you essentially weed out poorly performing sector funds - and there appear to be more laggards than leading sectors.

It's just my opinion but I like (and based on today's information expect sustained out-performance):

1. Technology/internet including FAANG (who doesn't), semiconductors (what devices won't have chips over the coning decades).
2. Healthcare very solid long term performance and the current disruptions produce opportunities. Include biotechnology, insurers like UHC, Humana, medical devices, etc.
3- China
4- Aerospace and Defense
5- Small/Large growth

Don't currently like:

1- Precious metals
2- Latin America/Japan/India
3- Bear Market
4- Telecom
5- Real Estate
6- Banking
7- Utilities/Natural Resources
8- Bond Funds
9- Currency Funds

Holding judgement on Europe.

This is based on current information, nothing says this can't change.

From here, I'm going to post current fund holdings and what I'm currently considering either to add or trade into. :happy

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by fujiters » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:02 am

beezquimby wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:10 pm
LOL, I personally am prepared to buy when the next correction ensues.
I am prepared to sell tomorrow if the next major correction ensues.
¿Por qué no los dos? Harvest the losses and buy more.
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by MikeG62 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:59 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm
Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.
OP, if you can maintain an average annualized return of 30-40%, you should put 100% of your efforts into starting up and running a hedge fund and stop wasting time bragging about your (alleged) winners on these forums.

I had a friend who talked to (worked with) people on wall street every day (it was part of his job). Claimed to make a killing on this investment or that investment all the time. Several years later we were talking and I asked how he was making out with his trading these days. He responded "oh, I stopped doing that a while ago". To which I replied saying, "but wait, you said you were making a killing on all those trades". He grinned and said, "well I had only told you about the trades that worked out". He went on to say that his losers offset a large % of his winners and it simply was not worth the time he was wasting trying to outperform the market. He had of all things become a passive investor - and this was a guy who thought I was shortchanging myself investing in index funds. :happy
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:51 pm
A few disclosures before I continue:

3- Currently, my investments in the market are only about 15% of my total NW, far less than many who have posted here. I will still be fine in the event of a major down-turn. Everyone, please know your situation and risk tolerance.
4- I am not an investment professional. I just have a passion for this.
5- I have been studying the markets and trading on some level for over 20 years. If you want passive and easy, this is definitely not for you. I study the markets daily. Currently I just trade funds and study the sector news, fund history, holdings, managers, etc. I am prepared to sell tomorrow if the next major correction ensues. I have avoided any significant losses in the past and intend to continue doing so. One cannot learn to do what I do overnight by following this string. Years of online research and learning from one's past errors have no substitute.
It strikes me odd that someone would invest the kind of time you claim to spend studying the stock market (study it every day...been doing it on some level over 20 years...) on something which represents such a tiny % (15%) of your (alleged) $10 million net worth. Too much time spent on something that is not going to wiggle needle very much in the grand scheme of things even if right way more often than not. Something just does not sound right there.

And by the way, selecting a trade you claim to have made in the past - which cannot be verified - is not helpful to anyone who reads these boards. Quite frankly, I am surprised the moderators are allowing this thread to continue at all. It's all unsubstantiated braggadocio.
Real Knowledge Comes Only From Experience

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm

So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44%

The first 4 are my obligatory safe bets for diversification purposes, I don't really like them in terms of returns. Hence my struggle with diversification. Of the crowd, I think UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) was my worst pick and the first one I plan to exchange into something stronger. OPGIX may be next. Torn about FBIOX.

The bottom 6 are the ones I really wanted putting diversification aside. The overall market has been lackluster so far YTD, at some point several of these holdings had approx. 70-105% 1-YEAR returns. These current annualized returns are probably around a low given the market weakness, so I am satisfied with the annual performance of the bottom 6 funds as I still believe in the sector relative strength. I may look for stronger funds within these sectors.

Next I'll be posting the funds I'm looking at seriously for my consideration for future trades. Preparation for corrections provide great opportunities to optimize your fund mix and percentage allocation into each fund. I would like to increase to about 20 total funds over time.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by beezquimby » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:35 pm

LOL, big time anticlimactic, that’s your strategy investing in focused sector funds?
md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44%

The first 4 are my obligatory safe bets for diversification purposes, I don't really like them in terms of returns. Hence my struggle with diversification. Of the crowd, I think UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) was my worst pick and the first one I plan to exchange into something stronger. OPGIX may be next. Torn about FBIOX.

The bottom 6 are the ones I really wanted putting diversification aside. The overall market has been lackluster so far YTD, at some point several of these holdings had approx. 70-105% 1-YEAR returns. These current annualized returns are probably around a low given the market weakness, so I am satisfied with the annual performance of the bottom 6 funds as I still believe in the sector relative strength. I may look for stronger funds within these sectors.

Next I'll be posting the funds I'm looking at seriously for my consideration for future trades. Preparation for corrections provide great opportunities to optimize your fund mix and percentage allocation into each fund. I would like to increase to about 20 total funds over time.

Locked