Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

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jakehefty17
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by jakehefty17 » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:38 pm

Not anything past your emergency fund. That's what it's for.

If you want to adjust your risk tolerance and asset allocation you could. However, I wouldn't advise doing this based on speculation. Especially if you have a long investment timeframe (retirement). If a correction happens so be it, so long as you stay the course it'll pan out.

Sitting on money to invest during a market correction is attempting to time the market. Bogleheads don't advise that. You won't know the extent of any bear or bull market until after it's over.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:56 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:47 pm
When the pattern paused is when I sold an under-performer because we hit a top
The pattern paused and we hit a top. I see.
So I did not actually sell after the correction
Okay, so you didn't sell after a correction.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:58 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:53 pm
If you accelerate principle payments, then ultimately you pay less interest which over time accelerates the growth of your net worth.
At the expense of whatever acceleration those payments could have given your net worth had they instead been invested in the market, right?

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:02 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:08 pm
People have said I made my money with a successful business, not successful market investing. My point is that it's not the only way to invest, and the time and money I put into the business is also an investment.
So those people were correct - it wasn't successful market investing.

I like to invest time in preparing and eating lunch, too. Today, I invested some time putting the carseats back into my car, so that my grandchildren can sit there when I invest time with them this weekend. Now I'm going to invest some serious hours in sleep. Good night and happy investing.

bltn
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by bltn » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:45 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:52 pm
santosh wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:03 pm
But one thing is bothering me is that market has been going up since 2009 and I feel the market correction is bound to happen.
You are absolutely correct - a market correction is bound to happen. When do you imagine this will happen? (The when is always a challenge.)

Do you actually know what a market correction is? Would you be able to spot one? When was the most recent market correction, according to your definition?
So is it not a good idea to say have 30% of the monthly investment invested in a money market fund, so that when the market correction happens I have a good amount of cash to buy at a bargain?
It's a terrific idea. But here's the tricky part: unless you know when the correction will occur, you'll have money set aside basically earning nothing until then. Folks have been talking about an impending correction for many years now - being on the sidelines for those years would have been costly. And of course how long will you wait for the market to go down before deciding that it's time to buy? One day? One Month? One year?

And why 30%? If this is a really good plan, wouldn't you be better off having 100% of your money ready to strike?

Market timing is hard. Most folks aren't successful with it. Most likely you won't be successful either. IMHO, better to be in the market for a long time than to attempt to time the market.
I have read that good investor like Warren Buffet also have more than 100B cash sitting just to take advantage of the market correction.
Where did you read that? Since Buffet's net worth is about $80B, it's hard to imagine him having $100B in cash somewhere. Are you Warren Buffet? Are you hiding your net worth?
Excellent points.
Timing the stock market by maintainig some spare cash for later investing is tempting in a long bull market. But the decision about when to buy is very hard. Meanwhile you lose as the market cotinues to rise. Just continue to contribute to and stay in the market through ups and downs and you ll do fine.

By the way. I believe Mr Buffet has 100 billion of cash in Berkshire Hathaway waiting for a good buying opportunity. That might be cosidered a form of market timing, but I don t think he cares abiut the market so much as the individual opportunity. Investors like him don t come along too often. I better stick with continued contributions to index funds.

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HomerJ
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:04 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:08 pm
People have said I made my money with a successful business, not successful market investing. My point is that it's not the only way to invest, and the time and money I put into the business is also an investment.
Just to keep things clear around here, you don't get to say you "beat the market" because you started a successful business.

You also don't get to ignore your 50% position in cash when talking about your actual stock/bond/cash investment returns.
The J stands for Jay

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:29 am

JoeRetire wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:58 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:53 pm
If you accelerate principle payments, then ultimately you pay less interest which over time accelerates the growth of your net worth.
At the expense of whatever acceleration those payments could have given your net worth had they instead been invested in the market, right?
The market has been barely better than flat since January - the DOW has not hit a new high. Nasdaq and S&P just broke it. See the thread about people's returns YTD. Paying down debt was worth itfor me and also gives peace of mind.

Actually investing in my growing business gives me the best returns.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:50 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:04 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:08 pm
People have said I made my money with a successful business, not successful market investing. My point is that it's not the only way to invest, and the time and money I put into the business is also an investment.
Just to keep things clear around here, you don't get to say you "beat the market" because you started a successful business.

You also don't get to ignore your 50% position in cash when talking about your actual stock/bond/cash investment returns.
Sure I do, if investment in my business outperforms businesses on the public markets, I beat the market while diversifying.

The cash position is used to reinvest in my business, accelerate debt payments when appropriate, takes advantage of small 10% corrections as they present, and awaits the 50-85% correction for the ultimate buy low opportunity. I am also talking to venture capitalists for pre-ipo opportunities.
Just about all fund managers keep cash positions for corrections - they just tell you not to so they can make more money off you with fees and by turning your money.

Rus In Urbe
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by Rus In Urbe » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:26 am

Post by thangngo » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:45 pm

santosh wrote: ↑Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:03 pm
Hi, this is my first question in this forum.

I have recently started my investing journey and after reading https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... Bogleheads
I am convinced that I should be investing in an index fund.

But one thing is bothering me is that market has been going up since 2009 and I feel the market correction is bound to happen.
So is it not a good idea to say have 30% of the monthly investment invested in a money market fund, so that when the market correction happens I have a good amount of cash to buy at a bargain?

I have read that good investor like Warren Buffet also have more than 100B cash sitting just to take advantage of the market correction.

Once I am convinced that this idea is good, I will also move 30% of my 401k(Investing from 2013) investment in a money market.

Read this post: viewtopic.php?t=203792

WOW---I took @thangngo 's suggestion to read this post---all seven pages (see link above)---and it's a brilliant case study of what happens when you decide to invest based on fear. Or greed, for that matter.

If you weren't tuned into that thread, it starts with a post similar to this one, about pulling out of the market into cash because of anticipated downturn----in 2016. And ends seven pages and 2+ years later with some mighty fine posts and data from Bogleheads.

The truisms we all repeat endlessly on this board are just....true. Stay the Course. Time in the market, not market timing.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:32 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:29 am
The market has been barely better than flat since January - the DOW has not hit a new high. Nasdaq and S&P just broke it. See the thread about people's returns YTD. Paying down debt was worth itfor me and also gives peace of mind.
Short-term thinking.
Actually investing in my growing business gives me the best returns.
Clearly, you shouldn't be in the market at all.

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DanMahowny
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:39 am

The greatest investors are all market timers.

Indeed, timing the market is very difficult, and most will fail.

But to say market timing is impossible is just ridiculous.

Also, I agree the BogleHead way is the preferred approach.
Funding secured

dbr
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by dbr » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:44 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:39 am
The greatest investors are all market timers.

Indeed, timing the market is very difficult, and most will fail.

But to say market timing is impossible is just ridiculous.

Also, I agree the BogleHead way is the preferred approach.
Nothing succeeds like success. But as Larry Swedroe reminds us, "Don't confuse outcome with strategy."

ad2007
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by ad2007 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:48 am

Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction?

Depends... How much (% of total portfolio) are we talking about? If you're going 100% cash right now waiting for a correction, you're have no business being here. No Boglehead is going to advocate that. But if it makes you feel better sitting on ~5% cash and buy when the market dips, go for it. But how much of a difference will that strategy make long term - performance wise? I say, not much.

As a rule, I buy when my checking accounts hits a certain number. But that number may be 3-5% of my total portfolio. I do get that twinge of excitement when I make a purchase on a down day, but I know my emotions are whacked and not trustworthy.

DCChak
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by DCChak » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:50 am

thangngo wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:45 pm
santosh wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:03 pm
Hi, this is my first question in this forum.

I have recently started my investing journey and after reading https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... Bogleheads
I am convinced that I should be investing in an index fund.

But one thing is bothering me is that market has been going up since 2009 and I feel the market correction is bound to happen.
So is it not a good idea to say have 30% of the monthly investment invested in a money market fund, so that when the market correction happens I have a good amount of cash to buy at a bargain?

I have read that good investor like Warren Buffet also have more than 100B cash sitting just to take advantage of the market correction.

Once I am convinced that this idea is good, I will also move 30% of my 401k(Investing from 2013) investment in a money market.
Read this post: viewtopic.php?t=203792
Love this case study, and have bookmarked it for future reference.

ad2007
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by ad2007 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:52 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:39 am

But to say market timing is impossible is just ridiculous.
Being a pro basketball player is not impossible. It's impossible for me.

I think it's dangerous to talk about market timing without a disclaimer. Something to the effect of: you'll likely fail, it's practically impossible in the long run.

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HomerJ
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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KlangFool
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by KlangFool » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:47 am

Folks,

My rich uncle strike lottery 3 times in his life. And, he gambled and won money in the casinos. He owned multiple businesses and he is very rich. There are folks like that in the real world. But, the key question is are you one of those guys?

I know I am not. Hence, I use my slow and steady approach to reach my financial goal. It will have to be a dummy proof approach. I know that I am not that smart and I am not that brave. And, this is good enough for me.

With my approach, I can reach my goal with 0% real return. I will let others that are smarter and better than me to do something else.

KlangFool

CantPassAgain
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by CantPassAgain » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:51 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.
Sock puppet account he forgot about?

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greg24
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by greg24 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:51 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:45 pm
rbaldini wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:41 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:37 pm
Anyway, January saw a 10% correction that was easy to anticipate
How about this: put up a post next time you easily foresee an upcoming dip in the market. Tell us exactly when to sell, and then when to buy again. If it's so easy, you should come out ahead of the market, no problem.
Just went and looked up and looked up what i did. On February 8, 2018 I purchased 64K of DXQLX. Look up the chart, and you will know why I chose that date.
How does a purchase after a dip prove that you saw the dip coming?

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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by financeforthefamily » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:53 am

santosh wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:03 pm
Hi, this is my first question in this forum.

I have recently started my investing journey and after reading https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Comm ... Bogleheads
I am convinced that I should be investing in an index fund.

But one thing is bothering me is that market has been going up since 2009 and I feel the market correction is bound to happen.
So is it not a good idea to say have 30% of the monthly investment invested in a money market fund, so that when the market correction happens I have a good amount of cash to buy at a bargain?

I have read that good investor like Warren Buffet also have more than 100B cash sitting just to take advantage of the market correction.

Once I am convinced that this idea is good, I will also move 30% of my 401k(Investing from 2013) investment in a money market.
If you’re young and don’t need the money until retirement, just stay in the market. People said this in 2014 and missed out on huge returns. If the market goes down, it will recover. Warren buffet also recommends not timing the market, which is what you’re asking.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:04 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am

Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.

LOL +1

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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HomerJ
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:14 am

financeforthefamily wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:53 am
If you’re young and don’t need the money until retirement, just stay in the market. People said this in 2014 and missed out on huge returns. If the market goes down, it will recover. Warren buffet also recommends not timing the market, which is what you’re asking.
This is the main point.

So far, the markets have always recovered and gone on to new heights. So a young person holding through a crash hasn't cost them anything.

The 10% long-term return of the stock market that people like to mention INCLUDES the crashes. Read that again. You don't have to avoid the crashes to make a good long-term return.

Trying to time the market, you can indeed make MORE money. But you can also make LESS. It is a real danger to get out at a certain price point and never see the market drop that low again in your lifetime. The long-term trend, so far, has been up.

People who jumped out in 2014 and 2015 and 2016 are all still waiting. Maybe this will indeed be the year the stock market crashes. It could happen today. It's possible. But we never know.

Sure, we're all worried about a possible trade war this year, but we were all worried about the Greek debt crisis a few years ago, and Brexit a year after that, and a Chinese crash the year after that. Do a search for financial crisis 20xx for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and look at all the old articles that state that a financial crisis is likely to happen THAT year.

Which didn't happened.

But that doesn't mean it won't happen this year. Again, it could start today. There WILL be another crash, but no one knows when. Since we don't know when, it's easier and smarter to just stay the course, and ride through it.

Now, if you're close to retirement, and you no longer have the "long-term" to ride out a stock market crash, then you should go with a more conservative portfolio, because a crash could happen anytime. Maybe even today.

But it might go up another 80% before it crashes 30%, and today would still be the lowest price to buy going forward.
The J stands for Jay

minimalistmarc
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:27 am

One warning for new investors is that bearish investors often make very intelligent sounding, rational statements as to why the market will correct.

megabad
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by megabad » Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:06 pm

santosh wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:03 pm
So is it not a good idea to say have 30% of the monthly investment invested in a money market fund, so that when the market correction happens I have a good amount of cash to buy at a bargain?

I have read that good investor like Warren Buffet also have more than 100B cash sitting just to take advantage of the market correction.
If your investment plan calls for having a 30% allocation to money market/cash and wait for some sort of drop, than go for it. This strategy worked well for real estate in 2009 and some investors (and large firms) did well. To me it is akin to putting it all on red at the roulette table, but yes you could win. Some are gamblers, some are not. Some can afford to lose (lose out on) significant portfolio gains and some cannot.

If you haven't already, I suggest you read a book that discusses Warren Buffet in detail. He has had some spectacular losing bets (self admitted) over the past several decades, and one of his most famous winning bets was that of an index fund over a "market timing" fund of hedge funds. He has not had what I would consider a major new public share investment in many years. If you were truly to follow in his footsteps, I would recommend multibillion dollar takeovers of private firms with strong intrinsic value instead of the publicly traded stock market.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:51 pm

greg24 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:51 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:45 pm
rbaldini wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:41 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:37 pm
Anyway, January saw a 10% correction that was easy to anticipate
How about this: put up a post next time you easily foresee an upcoming dip in the market. Tell us exactly when to sell, and then when to buy again. If it's so easy, you should come out ahead of the market, no problem.
Just went and looked up and looked up what i did. On February 8, 2018 I purchased 64K of DXQLX. Look up the chart, and you will know why I chose that date.
How does a purchase after a dip prove that you saw the dip coming?
Sold an under-performer at the peak before the correction. Bought an out-performer after the dip. Lots of people saw the dip coming - without reserves, you can't take advantage of the corrections.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:54 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:04 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am

Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.

LOL +1

:beer
LOL. LOL LOL Never said I told him in January.

CantPassAgain
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by CantPassAgain » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:02 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 pm
But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress.
Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
March 23rd, 1 day before your first post: S&P 500 closed at 2,588.26.

S&P 500 close today: $2,772.35.

That is a 7.1% gain, or 34.61% annualized.

This does not include dividends.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:23 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months?
Which months were cool?

CantPassAgain
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by CantPassAgain » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:33 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:23 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months?
Which months were cool?
There has literally been one day that the S&P 500 was lower between closing on 03/23/2018 (the first day "md&pharmacist" posted) and closing today. One day. I'd say that's pretty cool 8-)

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm

CantPassAgain wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:02 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:15 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:37 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 am


Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are.

you doth protest too much, methinks.

Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of telling us how amazing you were in the past.
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
Your first post was March 23rd, 2018.
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
March 23rd, 1 day before your first post: S&P 500 closed at 2,588.26.

S&P 500 close today: $2,772.35.

That is a 7.1% gain, or 34.61% annualized.

This does not include dividends.
Great point. In January the S&P edged higher than it is today, so the dollar cost averagers essentially made nothing since the market corrected their January/early February injections. So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.

DXQLX is up about 25% since I purchased it February 8, or about 75% annualized.

Flat if you held on/cost averaged since January highs, but way up if you timed the market and bought on the dip...with money set aside OP, and top fund managers, and those who don't fear waiting to buy low.

I'll continue to improve my out-sized returns, others can stick with 8% long term averages minus whatever inflation eats of that.

Boo-yah!

CantPassAgain
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by CantPassAgain » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:52 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
Great point. In January the S&P edged higher than it is today, so the dollar cost averagers essentially made nothing since the market corrected their January/early February injections. So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.

DXQLX is up about 25% since I purchased it February 8, or about 75% annualized.

Flat if you held on/cost averaged since January highs, but way up if you timed the market and bought on the dip...with money set aside OP, and top fund managers, and those who don't fear waiting to buy low.

I'll continue to improve my out-sized returns, others can stick with 8% long term averages minus whatever inflation eats of that.

Boo-yah!
But....
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
I told you that after January the markets were likely to take a breather for a few months. Did they?

Also, I can't help you if you see no value in learning from history.
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
"I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this."
LOL, sure, sure, whatever you say "md&pharmacist" (allegedly). Cant wait for your next whopper though :sharebeer

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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:09 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:23 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months?
Which months were cool?
Do yourself a favor. Consider buying a small amount of INPIX on the next correction. That's what I'm looking at. It's an internet technology fund. Compare it's YTD, 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year performance to ANY fund you like (not just peers but any mutual fund in the universe).

If you're willing to criticize this one just stick with dollar cost averaging index funds. You'll do fine by Bogleheads standards.

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bligh
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by bligh » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:16 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:09 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:23 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months?
Which months were cool?
Do yourself a favor. Consider buying a small amount of INPIX on the next correction. That's what I'm looking at. It's an internet technology fund. Compare it's YTD, 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year performance to ANY fund you like (not just peers but any mutual fund in the universe).

If you're willing to criticize this one just stick with dollar cost averaging index funds. You'll do fine by Bogleheads standards.
Now we're talking. A forward looking prediction. Let's flesh it out some more to make the prediction measurably accurate.

By correction you mean, once the S&P 500 has gone down by 10%? The Dow? Or do you mean INPIX has gone down by 10%? Do you buy immediately after the 10% drop?

How long to hold it? When to sell?

INPIX is down quite sharply over the last 18 years. After the sharp drop it stayed flat for a good 10 years. Definitely a market timing instrument, not a buy and hold, so you have to have an idea of when to get out.
Last edited by bligh on Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.

MittensMoney
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by MittensMoney » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:17 pm

Why go through the effort of selecting low cost investments and building a great, time-proven plan, only to then create a large cash drag on your portfolio performance by waiting for a correction?

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:17 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.
Is that how market timing works?

So let's see if I got this right...

Pick a date in the past when the market was relatively low.
Declare that if you had purchased on that date and held it until today, that would have been a win for market timing.

Brilliant! And it works every time!

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:19 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:09 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:23 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:47 pm
I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this.
Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months?
Which months were cool?
Do yourself a favor. Consider buying a small amount of INPIX on the next correction. That's what I'm looking at. It's an internet technology fund. Compare it's YTD, 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year performance to ANY fund you like (not just peers but any mutual fund in the universe).

If you're willing to criticize this one just stick with dollar cost averaging index funds. You'll do fine by Bogleheads standards.
I'm still waiting to read that link where you accurately forecast the recent cool months. Maybe that will be convincing.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:24 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:17 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.
Is that how market timing works?

So let's see if I got this right...

Pick a date in the past when the market was relatively low.
Declare that if you had purchased on that date and held it until today, that would have been a win for market timing.

Brilliant! And it works every time!
I did not purchase on that date. The returns from that date are listed from another poster who used that date as an example, in this string.

I did purchase DXQLX on February 8, 2018, as previously posted.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:31 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:09 pm
Do yourself a favor. Consider buying a small amount of INPIX on the next correction.
Sounds like a winning strategy. I don't see how it could fail.
Please come back on the next correction and tell us how much you have invested.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:34 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:17 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.
Is that how market timing works?

So let's see if I got this right...

Pick a date in the past when the market was relatively low.
Declare that if you had purchased on that date and held it until today, that would have been a win for market timing.

Brilliant! And it works every time!
I did not purchase on that date. The returns from that date are listed from another poster who used that date as an example, in this string.

I did purchase DXQLX on February 8, 2018, as previously posted.
As I previously posted, I didn't say that you had purchased on that date. I wrote that you used that as an example of successful market timing.

And I also wrote that this look back method works every time!

(BTW, I'm still looking for your forecast of cool months, but haven't been able to find it. I did find where you used the word "cool", but that was in the phrase "cool aid". Can you help?)

md&pharmacist
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:43 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:34 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:17 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:48 pm
So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% annualized. Market timing won...again.
Is that how market timing works?

So let's see if I got this right...

Pick a date in the past when the market was relatively low.
Declare that if you had purchased on that date and held it until today, that would have been a win for market timing.

Brilliant! And it works every time!
I did not purchase on that date. The returns from that date are listed from another poster who used that date as an example, in this string.

I did purchase DXQLX on February 8, 2018, as previously posted.
As I previously posted, I didn't say that you had purchased on that date. I wrote that you used that as an example of successful market timing.

And I also wrote that this look back method works every time!

(BTW, I'm still looking for your forecast of cool months, but haven't been able to find it. I did find where you used the word "cool", but that was in the phrase "cool aid". Can you help?)
Okay, well that's an example of how to use market timing to your advantage with money set aside. If you want to see an example of when I actually did it look at the February 8 purchase. If you don't want to study how people who do it well do it then don't do it, just be satisfied with dollar cost averaged returns.

JoeRetire
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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:51 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:43 pm
Okay, well that's an example of how to use market timing to your advantage with money set aside. If you want to see an example of when I actually did it look at the February 8 purchase. If you don't want to study how people who do it well do it then don't do it, just be satisfied with dollar cost averaged returns.
If you want to convince people how well you do it, post all of your picks the morning before you pick them, rather than telling everyone what you did on one particular fund after the fact.

I'm sure you understand that telling us how well you did with one particular fund in the past is rather easy for anyone to do.

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Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:55 pm

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