How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

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Goodson55
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How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Goodson55 »

I just received $1.4 million from my mother's estate. Before I proceed with my question, here are some facts about my financial situation:

- 53-yo and currently "retired"; 45-yo wife earns nearly $200k annually and plans to work another five years
- Not counting the money just inherited, we have assets of about $3.2 million in IRAs, 401k, 529s, and taxable accounts.
- $2.4 million is invested in US and Int'l equity index funds and ETFs. The other $800k is in fixed income, including individual muni/corp bonds.
- My current target asset mix is 40% US total market; 25% fixed income; 20% Dev Int'l ex-US; 10% small-cap value; and 5% Emerging Int'l

I'm a buy-and-hold "value" investor who seeks to buy low. I've learned not to time the market, but equities are anything but cheap. Should I:
(1) invest the money all at once, or
(2) dollar-cost average over a period of say, 12 months, or
(3) wait for the inevitable 20%-plus drop in the market?

What would you do?
NotWhoYouThink
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by NotWhoYouThink »

I would invest it all now per my preferred asset allocation. Well, first I would set aside a little of it to do something fun with, but the rest I would invest tomorrow with no hesitation. But that's me. I like to make a decision and move on, and don't agonize if it later turns out that a slightly different decision would have been better. The market has been high for a few years now. If you had gotten this money 2 years ago you would still be waiting for that drop.
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Darth Xanadu
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Darth Xanadu »

NotWhoYouThink wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 4:40 pm I would invest it all now per my preferred asset allocation. Well, first I would set aside a little of it to do something fun with, but the rest I would invest tomorrow with no hesitation. But that's me. I like to make a decision and move on, and don't agonize if it later turns out that a slightly different decision would have been better. The market has been high for a few years now. If you had gotten this money 2 years ago you would still be waiting for that drop.
+1 I think this is the correct approach.

However, OP asked what I would do, and that is probably option #2, simply because from a psychological perspective, I've never had much fun on diving boards and always preferred to lower myself into the pool.
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JoeRetire
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by JoeRetire »

Goodson55 wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:34 pmI've learned not to time the market, but
Never say "but" after saying that you don't time the market.
Should I:
invest the money all at once
this
What would you do?
I'd spend some to honor my mother's wishes, and immediately invest the rest according to my asset allocation plan.
Last edited by JoeRetire on Wed May 23, 2018 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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woof755
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by woof755 »

I'm sorry for your loss,

It might be helpful also to know of any outstanding debts / mortgages / expenses such as college tuition that you have or foresee.
But if you're asking whether you should wait or invest the money now, I'm afraid no one can tell you a right answer. Generally when these questions come up, the answer is if you want to invest it but are worried about investing at the top, dollar cost averaging usually helps from a behavioral finance perspective.

Of course, the downside risk is dollar cost averaging into a year or several years when the market continues to go up.
OTOH, that isn't really a downside, after all!

Best wishes,

woof
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

If you are asking this question, then you need to revise your asset allocation. Nothing wrong with holding onto cash like instruments (read: high quality and short term) when messaging like today’s announcement about raising inflation expectations and level come from Fed chairman. Your hesitancy shows that 25% fixed is not the number, if it were you would put it all in at once. Seeing that life changing circumstances have arrived, would seriously reevaluate your path.
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by jebmke »

NotWhoYouThink wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 4:40 pm I would invest it all now per my preferred asset allocation.
I would do this too. Note that the preferred asset allocation may not be the same as the current asset allocation.
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cockersx3
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by cockersx3 »

Interesting this came up. I actually just read an interesting blog earlier today on the lump-sum-vs-DCA topic, specifically for periods of high valuation like we're in now. Here's the link.

Basically, my read is that over all past rolling 12 month periods, lump sum still beats DCA 60% of the time but with more swings on the lump sum side. There's also a footnote later in the article about how even at high valuation periods, over rolling 3-year periods lump sum beats DCA over 90% of time. To me this makes sense - equities are really geared towards the long term, which is much longer than 12 months...

Based on the data and my own inherent laziness, I would just lump-sum it at my current AA. I did this a few years ago for a seven-figure windfall - when they were saying pretty much the same thing about the market as now - and it worked out well.
TravelforFun
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by TravelforFun »

With stock market at all-time high, I would DCA over 12 months.

TravelforFun
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David Jay
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by David Jay »

TravelforFun wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 6:36 pmWith stock market at all-time high...
By definition, the stock market spends the majority of its time at or around all-time highs.
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TravelforFun
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by TravelforFun »

David Jay wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 6:44 pm
TravelforFun wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 6:36 pmWith stock market at all-time high...
By definition, the stock market spends the majority of its time at or around all-time highs.
Lol. True!

TravelforFun
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Peter Foley
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Peter Foley »

In the eyes of most people you have won the game. You are retired and have substantial assets. I would take the conservative approach and dollar cost average.
gotester2000
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by gotester2000 »

1. Invest the additional money according to your current method.
OR
2. Diversify your assets and invest in a multi family rental unit (Bogleheads are against this,but you have already won the game).
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Goodson55
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Goodson55 »

Hello all --

First of all, thank you so much for the thoughtful replies! You guys are truly amazing.

Someone asked about my debt situation. I didn't mention it because our only debt is home mortgage. We owe $340k on a home with value of at least $750k, so net equity of approx. $400k. Add that to our current assets and inheritance, and my wife and I have approx $4.6 million. We have two boys entering college in the next five years, with 529s to cover expenses. Not an issue.

I won't deny that we have "won the game" as some of you have said, but we also worked hard, spent way below our means, and invested well. I've been investing since 1991, so I've been through two huge bull markets and two major corrections. Learned a lot along the way.

My first instinct was to invest the lump sum all at once. But as others have pointed out, we can afford to be more conservative at this point. And like Warren Buffet says: "Buy hamburger when it's on sale, not when it's overpriced."

After consider the excellent research by Vanguard on this topic (thank you cockersx3!) and the current level of market valuation (32 CAPE), I'm thinking about taking a hybrid approach:

- I will invest one-twelfth of the lump sum monthly over one year
- UNLESS the market drops 10% or more, and then I will invest the remainder of the lump sum

Thanks again for all your input!!
letsgobobby
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by letsgobobby »

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deltaneutral83
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by deltaneutral83 »

Goodson55 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am - I will invest one-twelfth of the lump sum monthly over one year
- UNLESS the market drops 10% or more, and then I will invest the remainder of the lump sum

Thanks again for all your input!!
The US market dropped 12% off end of January highs already this year. We are currently back to 7% down. Where exactly are your 10% parameters based on, today, or end of Jan? Statistically speaking, 7% discount off all time highs is pretty decent lump sum price.
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Raymond
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Raymond »

What is the interest rate on the mortgage?

If it's higher than, say, the current Treasury 5-year note yield of 2.83%, and you have sufficient liquid funds for emergencies, you might consider paying off the mortgage entirely.

[Edit] Corrected "bond" to "note".
Last edited by Raymond on Sat May 26, 2018 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Glockenspiel
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Glockenspiel »

I'll agree with some others in saying that a conservative approach is to dollar-cost-average it into the market over a 12 month span, while realizing that the market could be much higher in a year. It depends if you're looking to maximize gains or minimize losses.
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

Goodson55 wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:34 pm (3) wait for the inevitable 20%-plus drop in the market?
There is no invevitable drop from current prices. There will be bear markets to come, but there's no guarantee that they will provide a bargain. There are many points in history of various markets where that point has never been reached again in subsequent drops.

If it were a certain thing, it would make sense for all of us to sell what we have and wait, at least what's in tax-advantaged. There are people who bailed out the past few years and are still waiting.
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by RickBoglehead »

Goodson55 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am Hello all --

First of all, thank you so much for the thoughtful replies! You guys are truly amazing.

Someone asked about my debt situation. I didn't mention it because our only debt is home mortgage. We owe $340k on a home with value of at least $750k, so net equity of approx. $400k. Add that to our current assets and inheritance, and my wife and I have approx $4.6 million. We have two boys entering college in the next five years, with 529s to cover expenses. Not an issue.

I won't deny that we have "won the game" as some of you have said, but we also worked hard, spent way below our means, and invested well. I've been investing since 1991, so I've been through two huge bull markets and two major corrections. Learned a lot along the way.

My first instinct was to invest the lump sum all at once. But as others have pointed out, we can afford to be more conservative at this point. And like Warren Buffet says: "Buy hamburger when it's on sale, not when it's overpriced."

After consider the excellent research by Vanguard on this topic (thank you cockersx3!) and the current level of market valuation (32 CAPE), I'm thinking about taking a hybrid approach:

- I will invest one-twelfth of the lump sum monthly over one year
- UNLESS the market drops 10% or more, and then I will invest the remainder of the lump sum

Thanks again for all your input!!
So once you invest 1/12th, where are the other 11/12's going to sit? If you adopt this approach, I'd put 1/2 the money in a Vanguard Prime Money Market (or a muni MM if your state taxes are high), or buy a bunch of 6 month CDs through VG to at least lock in the 2% 6 month rate.
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by pkcrafter »

Goodson, your current AA is 75/25, which is high for your age and situation, but with your wife still working, you can manage it. As for worrying about a market drop, the odds of a drop now vs a year from now are about the same, which means you may DCA and once complete you may get the fall you are concerned about. If it concerns you it may mean you are carrying an amount of risk above your comfort level. DCA really doesn't make much sense, but it won't hurt either. Once you're again fully invested you face the same downside risk as long as you hold the same AA.

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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by niceguy7376 »

Goodson55 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am UNLESS the market drops 10% or more, and then I will invest the remainder of the lump sum
I am a novice in this % calculations. Could someone provide some mathematical examples?
Assumption: Today's(5/25) Dow Jonex Index is at rounded up 25000.

So when someone says market drop of 10%, are we waiting for the 22500 to be reached (10% of 25000 = 2500 and 25000-2500=22500) at the end of market day to meet the expectation?

How about in a given single day, it went down to 22K but closed at 23K at end of day?
wolf359
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by wolf359 »

Goodson55 wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:34 pm I just received $1.4 million from my mother's estate. Before I proceed with my question, here are some facts about my financial situation:

- 53-yo and currently "retired"; 45-yo wife earns nearly $200k annually and plans to work another five years
- Not counting the money just inherited, we have assets of about $3.2 million in IRAs, 401k, 529s, and taxable accounts.
- $2.4 million is invested in US and Int'l equity index funds and ETFs. The other $800k is in fixed income, including individual muni/corp bonds.
- My current target asset mix is 40% US total market; 25% fixed income; 20% Dev Int'l ex-US; 10% small-cap value; and 5% Emerging Int'l

I'm a buy-and-hold "value" investor who seeks to buy low. I've learned not to time the market, but equities are anything but cheap. Should I:
(1) invest the money all at once, or
(2) dollar-cost average over a period of say, 12 months, or
(3) wait for the inevitable 20%-plus drop in the market?

What would you do?
I don't know if I just look at things sideways, but I am seeing a different perspective on this.

A couple of questions:

1) Do you have any planned changes to your financial situation, your asset allocation, the way you invest, or need to rebalance? For example, do you have any desires to pay off all mortgages and debt, buy rental properties, change what you're invested in, or build up a reserve fund for some reason? If so, this is the point of time in which to make those changes. Usually it costs a lot of money to shift your money around. Selling in taxable generates taxes. You currently have a large amount of unallocated funds, so you can make those adjustments without that cost.

I'd prioritize paying off any debts, including mortgage. The other types of changes depend on your individual situation.

2) Barring any changes addressed in question #1, consider the following scenario: You have $4.6 million in assets. Your current asset allocation is 52/48. What should you do, according to your investment plan?

You have no need to be nervous about the stock market, because your bond/cash allocation is high. If it's too conservative for you, what would you rebalance it to? Shifting to a 60/40 portfolio doesn't change to much from your current position, but still buffers you in the event of a crash. Don't think in terms of what may happen (you can't predict that.) Think in terms of what the situation actually is at this moment (which you can verify.) The fact is, that the "new money" is already part of your assets, and just happens to be invested in cash/bonds. Approach your problem from that perspective. It's much easier to deal with conceptually that way.
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Quantum
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Quantum »

Goodson55 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am
My first instinct was to invest the lump sum all at once. But as others have pointed out, we can afford to be more conservative at this point. And like Warren Buffet says: "Buy hamburger when it's on sale, not when it's overpriced."


Thanks again for all your input!!
Being conservative is often best served in your allocation ratios, not your timing. If you want lower risk, perhaps you should consider sacrificing returns by heavily weighting your lump sum in bonds rather than time averaging at your current ratio. Then, if there is a correction, you are better protected via your diversification.

Here, you are not waiting to buy cheaper hamburger, you are buying the cheap hot dogs.
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VaR
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by VaR »

OP, your current asset allocation is:
US Equity: $1.28 or 40%
(us?) FI: $0.8 or 25%
Dev ex-US: $0.64 or 20%
US SCV $.32 or 10%
EM: $0.16 or 5%

So really, your level 1 AA is:
Equity/FI: 75%/25%
Domestic/International: 67/33 - this is tilted toward domestic
Developed/Emerging: 80/20 - this is close to market cap weighted

Questions:
1. Do you intend to remain 75/25 after your wife retires in 5 years? If not, it might behoove you to move to your retirement asset allocation now.
2. Was your 67/33 domestic/international ratio a result of a thoughtful process? If not and you intend to move closer to 50/50, now might be a good time to do this.
3. Did you have any intention of paying off your mortgage between now and when your wife retires? If so, now might be a good time to just pay it off.

Anyway, count me as an advocate of lump sum or if you really can't handle it, accelerated DCA (50% now, 50% over the next 6-12 months). As I commented in another thread, I dislike creating the additional "risk" that you're out of the market for the next year and then the market drops a year from now. This specific worry is irrational, but not any more irrational than worrying that the market will drop in the next month.

I also agree with those who are concerned that concern about lump sum investing reflects a possible disconnect between your risk tolerance and your asset allocation.
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Tal- »

First, I'm sorry for your loss.

Second, congratulations on such a strong financial standing.

If this money would change anything about your lifestyle, security, plans, etc., then I think that simply adding it to your allocation (using either lump sum, or 1-year DCA) is fine.

But, if this money would not change anything for you, then I'd ask "how can you use that money to honor her?" For me, that answer would be a short-term trip (1 week to Disneyland with the kids and extended family) followed by college being fully paid for. For you, that may be a $100,000 gift at your son's wedding, or $150K for your kid's first house down-payment, or setting up a grant at a local college, or funding a pet rescue, or whatever.

I wouldn't advocate this if your finances weren't so strong. And, I probably would only use 1/3 of the interference to do something like this. But, in your financial situations, that's probably what I'd do.

With that said, don't make any irrevocable decisions for a year or so...
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by msk »

You already have your finances sorted out before receiving the inheritance. If it were me, I would just put the whole lot into VT, today. Worldwide stocks by free market weight. Post retirement I will be looking forward to plenty of capital appreciation, and as long as I keep my annual WR to 5% or less of my NW I should be able to leave a very healthy estate for my heirs. 5% WR keeps the balance growing in pace with inflation, forever, as the Median forecast in Monte Carlo simulations. In all cases the portfolio will last forever, since at the end of each year there is 95% of the portfolio reinvesting.
VaR
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by VaR »

Quantum wrote: Fri May 25, 2018 12:43 pm Being conservative is often best served in your allocation ratios, not your timing. If you want lower risk, perhaps you should consider sacrificing returns by heavily weighting your lump sum in bonds rather than time averaging at your current ratio. Then, if there is a correction, you are better protected via your diversification.
This is an interesting way of putting it. I like it.

So under the assumption that a 75/25 equity/fixed income allocation is too risky, let's say you set your new asset allocation at 65/35.

Current 75/25 allocation of $3.2 million:
Equity: $2.4 million
FI: $0.8 million

65/35 allocation of $4.6 million:
Equity: $3 million (buy of $600,000)
FI: $1.6 million (buy of $800,000

70/30 allocation of $4.6 million:
Equity: $3.22 million (buy of $1.22 million)
FI: $1.38 million (buy of $580,000)

---If you choose to pay off your mortgage---
65/35 allocation of $4.26 million ($340k to pay off mortgage):
Equity: $2.77 million (buy of $470,000)
FI: $1.49 million (buy of $690,000)

70/30 allocation of $4.26 million ($340k to pay off mortgage):
Equity: $2.98 million (buy of $580,000)
FI: $1.28 (buy of $480,000)

So let's say you pick option 4 and pay off your mortgage and set your new AA (to match your newly discovered risk tolerance) to 70/30. Market goes up 10% over the next 11 months but then drops by 20% for a net 12% loss. FI accrues 4%.
Equity: $2.98 million x 0.88 = $2.62 million (loss of $360,000, only $70,000 of which is attributable to your inheritance buy-in)
FI: $1.28 million x 1.04 = $1.33 million
Total portfolio value: $3.95 million, an 8% overall loss for the year.

You discover that your asset allocation is off:
Equity: $2.62 million or 66%
FI: $1.33 million or 34%

Your target asset allocation of 70/30 would be:
Equity: $2.77 million (need to buy $145k to rebalance)
FI: $1.19 million (need to sell $145k to rebalance)
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by texasdiver »

Some questions:

1. If you inherited $1.4 million that was already properly invested according to your prefered AA (Vanguard Life Strategy Fund or Wellington or some such) would you liquidate it all to cash and then dollar cost average it back into the same fund over the next 12 months? (assuming there were no tax implications).

2. If dollar cost averaging is the correct strategy for this new source of funds, why is it not also the correct strategy for the other $2.4 million in your portfolio. Shouldn't you also cash out these funds and then dollar cost average them back into your preferred funds over the next 12 months? Or wait until the inevitable 20% drop in the market?

If the answer is no to either of these two questions, you should ask yourself why it would be yes to this new source of funds. Ultimately they are all equal contributors to your net worth and financial future. Presumably at your age and level of wealth you aren't going to invest it all in equities anyway. I'm assuming only a portion of this new $1.4 million will ultimately be directed to equities and the rest to bonds or other fixed income investments. So you are really only talking about what....60 percent of this windfall going into equities? And parking the the other 40% in safe investments.
Kaktus
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by Kaktus »

I would buy something very beautiful and lasting in memory of my mother, then buy some precious metals, then nr. 1.
aristotelian
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by aristotelian »

Review your asset allocation. Having that amount of money can reduce your need to take risk. Then invest according to your allocation. Consider your mother's legacy and perhaps making a large donation to charity, college funds for family, etc.
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by ThePrince »

Goodson55 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am Hello all --

First of all, thank you so much for the thoughtful replies! You guys are truly amazing.

Someone asked about my debt situation. I didn't mention it because our only debt is home mortgage. We owe $340k on a home with value of at least $750k, so net equity of approx. $400k. Add that to our current assets and inheritance, and my wife and I have approx $4.6 million. We have two boys entering college in the next five years, with 529s to cover expenses. Not an issue.

I won't deny that we have "won the game" as some of you have said, but we also worked hard, spent way below our means, and invested well. I've been investing since 1991, so I've been through two huge bull markets and two major corrections. Learned a lot along the way.

My first instinct was to invest the lump sum all at once. But as others have pointed out, we can afford to be more conservative at this point. And like Warren Buffet says: "Buy hamburger when it's on sale, not when it's overpriced."

After consider the excellent research by Vanguard on this topic (thank you cockersx3!) and the current level of market valuation (32 CAPE), I'm thinking about taking a hybrid approach:

- I will invest one-twelfth of the lump sum monthly over one year
- UNLESS the market drops 10% or more, and then I will invest the remainder of the lump sum

Thanks again for all your input!!
I would payoff the mortgage immediately with some of the inheritance proceeds.
PhilosophyAndrew
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Re: How to invest $1.4 million inheritance?

Post by PhilosophyAndrew »

OP, since you have won the game and already have a solod command of Boglehead principles, I would do whatever makes you the most cmfortable.

Do you wish to spend a few % on something special? Do so if you want to because that won’t make a material difference to your financial future, assuming you remain committed to the practice of living below your means.

Do you feel more comfortable DCA-Ing over 12 months or so? If so, go ahead and do so — you know that lump sum investing will probably maximize your net worth, but trading those potential gains wouldn’t affect your financial situation materially.

Would you be happy or relieved to eliminate your mortgage debt? Do whatever you want because neither choice will materially affect your financial future.

You get the pattern — winning the game while committed to Boglehead principles is an empowering place to be!

To answer your question directly; I’m sorry for your loss, and if I were in your position I would pay off my mortgage, spend a bit on a special experience or purchase that meant a lot to me, and would lump-sum the rest in accordance with the asset allocations in my ISP.

Andy.
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