Starting to smell like buying season?

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midareff
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Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am

What do you think?

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nisiprius
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by nisiprius » Thu May 03, 2018 9:46 am

Smells like impulse to me. I think "time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." (--John C. Bogle)
Last edited by nisiprius on Thu May 03, 2018 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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VAslim16
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by VAslim16 » Thu May 03, 2018 9:52 am

I think there will be more droppage. But since I think that it probably means there won't be :)

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by AlohaJoe » Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am

Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?

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midareff
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by AlohaJoe » Thu May 03, 2018 10:09 am

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.
I guess I don't understand what the "starting" is about then. The "start" was back when everything dropped 10%. What is new today (or this week) to make it start smell like buying season? Are you saying you think things are now going to go up a lot?

Maybe I should rephrase it as: your original post was so terse and opaque that I'm not sure what you meant or why you meant it. If you flesh it out with a bit of detail that'd be a nice edit, I think, and possibly help garner discussion.

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midareff
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Thu May 03, 2018 10:21 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:09 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.
I guess I don't understand what the "starting" is about then. The "start" was back when everything dropped 10%. What is new today (or this week) to make it start smell like buying season? Are you saying you think things are now going to go up a lot?

Maybe I should rephrase it as: your original post was so terse and opaque that I'm not sure what you meant or why you meant it. If you flesh it out with a bit of detail that'd be a nice edit, I think, and possibly help garner discussion.
It's the 12% that starts to tickle the nostrils IMHO.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by david1082b » Thu May 03, 2018 10:22 am

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.
You don't specify what that number means, but I guess it might be the Dow Jones Industrial Average index number which gets mentioned a lot, even though hardly anyone has the Dow as their stock portfolio. Let's have the contractually-obliged Morningstar link comparing a Dow index ETF (DIA) with an S&P 500 fund (VFINX) and total stock market ETF (VTI) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

From what I can tell, the Dow is down further than the total market and the S&P 500 since late January's top. What does it all mean? Could this be the bottom of the correction or is it just the start of something even worse? Is it really possible to know?
Last edited by david1082b on Thu May 03, 2018 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

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midareff
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.

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midareff
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Thu May 03, 2018 10:25 am

david1082b wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:22 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.
You don't specify what that number means, but I guess it might be the Dow Jones Industrial Average index number which gets mentioned a lot, even though hardly anyone has the Dow as their stock portfolio. Let's have the contractually-obliged Morningstar link comparing a Dow index ETF (DIA) with an S&P 500 fund (VFINX) and total stock market ETF (VTI) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

From what I can tell, the Dow is down further than the total market and the S&P 500 since late January's top. What does it all mean? Could this be the bottom of the correction or is it just the start of something even worse? Is it really possible to know?
LOL... if it was possible to know, and if any of the guru talking heads on CNBC knew, we would all be off on our private Caribbean Island.

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greg24
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by greg24 » Thu May 03, 2018 10:28 am

Still at historically high PE10.

Image

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.
I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
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munemaker
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by munemaker » Thu May 03, 2018 11:50 am

There really is no "buying season." You should always stay fully invested. It usually works out better not to try to time the market.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by avoidingdumbmistakes » Thu May 03, 2018 11:51 am

david1082b wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:22 am
Is it really possible to know?
No, it never is. ;)

Analysts are pretty divided with some saying another run for the S&P to close out the year close to 3k and others saying fasten your seatbelts. Right now the S&P is trying to break below its 200 day moving average. There have been a couple attempts at that since March with a rebound. Will this be the time where the wheels come off for a bit? Beats me but I wouldn't be surprised if the next month delivers more pain than gain.

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Svensk Anga
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Svensk Anga » Thu May 03, 2018 12:30 pm

It can't be time to buy yet. In case you hadn't noticed, the calendar turned last Tuesday. Sell in May and go away...... :wink:

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nedsaid
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by nedsaid » Thu May 03, 2018 12:51 pm

Well certainly prices are better than they were in late January but not sure one can say this is a buying season. We are down 8%-9% or so from all-time highs so it is pretty hard to say the market is a screaming buy. This is not 2009.

If you are investing towards retirement, just stick with your plan. Keep buying at regular intervals through your 401k or other workplace savings plan. Keep buying in your IRA. Stocks still look fairly expensive particularly with interest rates and inflation both ticking up. But I don't think stocks are in euphoria either, this isn't 1928, 1966, or 1999. Conversely, I don't think stocks are big bargains here.

What I have been saying here for years is to buy good stuff and keep it.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by cinghiale » Thu May 03, 2018 1:18 pm

I’m currently re-reading Larry Swedroe’s Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make. It’s early in the review... only up to Mistake #19 (out of 77 total). Maybe someone with a better recollection of this book can provide a reminder. I know this falls in to “mistake” territory, but can’t figure out which one.

Anyone? Anyone?

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by TropikThunder » Thu May 03, 2018 1:20 pm

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:21 am
It's the 12% that starts to tickle the nostrils IMHO.
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am
Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.
12% is enough to “tickle your nostrils” but you’re not going to be tempted unless you see a drop much bigger than 15%. I’m confused.

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ofcmetz
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by ofcmetz » Thu May 03, 2018 1:23 pm

Trying to time things is not a game I think is worth playing. Just put your money into your asset allocation as you get money to invest. For me and the wife this means every Friday is buying season.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by alfaspider » Thu May 03, 2018 1:25 pm

greg24 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:28 am
Still at historically high PE10.

Image
Yes, but P/E is lower than this time last year now, and forward PE is back to 2015 levels. If earnings growth continues and valuations do not increase significantly from here, PE10 will start dropping off fairly quickly- especially as the worst of the recession years start dropping off the average.

Not to say any of that is really actionable :happy

bondsr4me
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by bondsr4me » Thu May 03, 2018 1:29 pm

Depends on your time horizon.

If you have 10 years or longer as your horizon, buy now.
Waiting probably won't make a hill of beans difference.
The market goes up; the market goes down.
Trying to "time" the buy, "the low", may cause you to not make your buy and miss out on the next "big run".

Just buy and forget it....listen to what Warren Buffett would tell ya.

Have a great day,

Don

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by marcopolo » Thu May 03, 2018 2:50 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am

I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
Based on previous posts, you seem to always be about a year or two away from pulling the plug. So, I am not sure how your bottoming of allocation works. Are you always lowering it as you push your date back, or do you ramp it back up each time you decide to wait another year?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by DanMahowny » Thu May 03, 2018 2:56 pm

I'm waiting for a 40% drop. It's coming.
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WhiteMaxima
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu May 03, 2018 3:02 pm

a 40% drop would put CAPE to historical norm. But that would happen when interest rate go back to historical norm like 5 to 6%. So far we are 2.5%.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by bikechuck » Thu May 03, 2018 3:03 pm

I am so happy that I was never tempted to time the market while I was in my accumulation phase and I am not about to begin doing so in retirement. I am pretty settled in with a 50/50 allocation and I intend to stay with that perhaps for the remainder of my days.

I think that avoiding trying to guess when to jump in and out is one of the reasons that I was able to accumulate enough assets to retire. It was a boring approach compared the approach taken by some of my friends and co-workers but it worked and I am thankful that it did.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by staythecourse » Thu May 03, 2018 3:10 pm

I am always surprised how confident folks can be in their own ability. Even though we have troves of data supporting market timing is a losers game someone on some random internet forum like this thinks they and only they have some innate ability that NO ONE else has to see into the future.

For me, I just invest every month the same way as I did the previous month no matter what happens. What I invest in has nothing to do with the market, but instead a matter keeping my asset allocation in check. Who cares what the market does in the short run. That makes no difference to the long term investor.

Good luck.
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flyingaway
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by flyingaway » Thu May 03, 2018 3:44 pm

I have a feeling that the worst is yet to come, but I contribute to my retirement accounts monthly, directly from salary deduction.

remomnyc
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by remomnyc » Thu May 03, 2018 3:48 pm

Most years when I got my 401k match or my bonus, I had to hold my nose and buy even though prices were at all time highs. You just can't tell (or at least I can't) when it's buying season, so I'm always a buyer when I have cash.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu May 03, 2018 3:56 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:02 pm
a 40% drop would put CAPE to historical norm. But that would happen when interest rate go back to historical norm like 5 to 6%. So far we are 2.5%.
A cumulative 40% drop on the S&P from the highs would be three 40% drops in 18-19 years depending on how long it takes to dip 40% from the Jan 2018 all time highs. I don't even know that we've had the two in ten years we got last decade so I have to think 3 40% drops in 18/19 years would be a record of records. BUT, markets are random, could easily happen.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu May 03, 2018 4:10 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:56 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:02 pm
a 40% drop would put CAPE to historical norm. But that would happen when interest rate go back to historical norm like 5 to 6%. So far we are 2.5%.
A cumulative 40% drop on the S&P from the highs would be three 40% drops in 18-19 years depending on how long it takes to dip 40% from the Jan 2018 all time highs. I don't even know that we've had the two in ten years we got last decade so I have to think 3 40% drops in 18/19 years would be a record of records. BUT, markets are random, could easily happen.
from peak to bottom I would guess for a period of time. That's probably the worst case. Most likely would be a 20% correction. We are already 10% from peak, aren't we?

balbrec2
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by balbrec2 » Thu May 03, 2018 4:39 pm

Sounds like market timing to me. If you hit a rebalance point fine but other than that
you're guessing. Your guess is probably as bad as anyone's

balbrec2

Silk McCue
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Silk McCue » Thu May 03, 2018 4:51 pm

My 67/33 Vanguard invested accounts are down only .47% since Jan 1. I prefer to compare this rather than the exuberant run up in January which set us up for the drop. You can evaluate your “losses” from whatever date you choose.

Cheers

minimalistmarc
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu May 03, 2018 4:58 pm

100% equities for me so I’m buying now and in the future. I do like to wait till I have at least a chunk of 10k to invest but once I have it in it goes

Mickey7
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Mickey7 » Thu May 03, 2018 4:59 pm

I don't know about yours, but my crystal ball tells me to stay steady and keep the course. Twice a month is buying season.

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goingup
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by goingup » Thu May 03, 2018 5:13 pm

I'm not really smelling anything particularly. Long ago I gave up that bravado. We invest automatically into a 401K and taxable account. There is no olfactory sense required. :twisted:

What I actually do smell is another 2015--a rather flat year. Regardless, we'll just keep investing and TLH when losses are significant.

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Kevin M
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Kevin M » Thu May 03, 2018 6:49 pm

Haven't trotted this one out in awhile:

Image

So total US is about 8% below 52-week high but about 12% above 52-week low. Total international about 7% below high and 11% above low.

The "black hole" small growth is interesting--about 4% below high and 18% above low.

At any rate, doesn't look particularly interesting at this point.

More importantly, I'm only about 2 percentage points below target allocation to stocks, so far from the 5 pp that would trigger a rebalance if using something like a 5/25 rebalancing policy, which is my intention at this point, other than selling to raise cash for expenses in retirement. I certainly wouldn't be selling stocks now to raise cash.

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu May 03, 2018 7:31 pm

KevinM - how do you upload daily close for ETFs? Is it manual or do you have a feed for the spreadsheet?
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu May 03, 2018 7:36 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 3:02 pm
a 40% drop would put CAPE to historical norm. But that would happen when interest rate go back to historical norm like 5 to 6%. So far we are 2.5%.
I don’t think the “drop” is coming the way most folks believe as in “unexpected, shocking, jarring free-fall”. Rather I think if or when it comes it will be in hindsight as a slow grind down, with markets down 12% from highs we only have another 25% more to go before the next upturn. Wishing it for it to be doesn’t make it so, in the meantime carry-on as “nobody knows nothing, myself included”.
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PFInterest
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by PFInterest » Thu May 03, 2018 7:37 pm

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
i buy every month so......

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Kevin M
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by Kevin M » Thu May 03, 2018 7:48 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 7:31 pm
KevinM - how do you upload daily close for ETFs? Is it manual or do you have a feed for the spreadsheet?
All ETF data is loaded automatically into a Google Sheets spreadsheet using the GoogleFinance function. This includes % change, price, 52-week low, 52-week high, and a number of other parameters not used for the particular view shown here.

Note that it is latest price, not close price, so will reflect the latest quotes provided by Google while the market is open. This can be interesting on highly volatile days, but I haven't really paid attention to daily stock market activity in quite some time. Along these lines, one reason I like the view this spreadsheet provides is it gives a little broader view of relative prices. The color coding draws attention to the larger changes from 52-week lows and highs, so unless there are very deep reds or very deep blues, chances are there's no need to look further into taking any action.

But really, I'm more likely to just glance at my stock allocation to note if it's far enough from target to think about doing anything. It almost never is.

Kevin
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amateurnovice
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by amateurnovice » Thu May 03, 2018 7:57 pm

david1082b wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:22 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:03 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 am
Based on a 1.4% drop in the first 2.5 hours of Thursday?
From the end of January high of 26,616.71 to right now's 23,584.26 is a bit more than 1.4% Joe. Back napkin match approaching 12%.
You don't specify what that number means, but I guess it might be the Dow Jones Industrial Average index number which gets mentioned a lot, even though hardly anyone has the Dow as their stock portfolio. Let's have the contractually-obliged Morningstar link comparing a Dow index ETF (DIA) with an S&P 500 fund (VFINX) and total stock market ETF (VTI) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

From what I can tell, the Dow is down further than the total market and the S&P 500 since late January's top. What does it all mean? Could this be the bottom of the correction or is it just the start of something even worse? Is it really possible to know?

Did you really not know what that number meant? Lots of Bogleheads do that thing where they pretend not to be able to look up a ticker symbol by opening a new tab and taking all of 3 seconds, so I think you might've known and just pretended not to know.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu May 03, 2018 8:54 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 2:50 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am

I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
Based on previous posts, you seem to always be about a year or two away from pulling the plug. So, I am not sure how your bottoming of allocation works. Are you always lowering it as you push your date back, or do you ramp it back up each time you decide to wait another year?
Nope, don't ramp back up. Luckily, I am very clear on how my bottoming works, its not just proximity to my retirement but also the amount accumulated beyond what i need for financial independence and proximity to FRA.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by youngpleb » Thu May 03, 2018 9:56 pm

midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
Pshhh it's always buying season 8-)
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midareff
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Fri May 04, 2018 7:15 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.

I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
I pulled the plug April 2012, so I've been conservative the last few years. As they said.. why risk what you do have and need to make money you don't need.

z3r0c00l
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by z3r0c00l » Fri May 04, 2018 7:26 am

greg24 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:28 am
Still at historically high PE10.

Image
Back down to Black Tuesday levels? Sounds good to me.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri May 04, 2018 7:29 am

midareff wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 7:15 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:38 am
What do you think?
I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.

I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
I pulled the plug April 2012, so I've been conservative the last few years. As they said.. why risk what you do have and need to make money you don't need.
Exactly, I think that can be very hard to understand for folks in the accumulation phase. Plus not to be morbid but my investment horizon is shorter than it was when I was 30 and in my early accumulation phase. Financial Independence is a wonderful gift most people will never receive, it deserves to be protected both from unnecessary risk but also from being overly conservative.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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midareff
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Location: Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by midareff » Fri May 04, 2018 8:11 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 7:29 am
midareff wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 7:15 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am
midareff wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:08 am


I dropped my equity allocation about 15% a couple months back by selling rallies. Waiting for down at least 15% to start any buying outside of my regularly planned purchases. That said my plans tend t have some situational fluidity and are not carved in stone.
I certainly hear the not carved in stone stuff myself. I've been floating at about 44% in equities and would want to see a much bigger drop before I was tempted.
As you said, not to be morbid, but now at 70 and understanding the go-go years only last so long...... then the slo-go.... and finally the no-go.


I should point out I am probably within 18 months (or less) of pulling the plug so I am bottoming out my equity allocation before I begin what I plan to be a rising glide path. Makes no sense to me to risk the outsized gains since 2010 for no additional reward or utility, so I am sort of waiting for a bear market to do anything beyond regular purchases.
I pulled the plug April 2012, so I've been conservative the last few years. As they said.. why risk what you do have and need to make money you don't need.
Exactly, I think that can be very hard to understand for folks in the accumulation phase. Plus not to be morbid but my investment horizon is shorter than it was when I was 30 and in my early accumulation phase. Financial Independence is a wonderful gift most people will never receive, it deserves to be protected both from unnecessary risk but also from being overly conservative.

bikechuck
Posts: 347
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by bikechuck » Sat May 05, 2018 3:33 pm

amateurnovice wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 7:57 pm
Lots of Bogleheads do that thing where they pretend not to be able to look up a ticker symbol by opening a new tab and taking all of 3 seconds, so I think you might've known and just pretended not to know.
I think that it is best to avoid using acronyms and ticker symbols when posting. One person can take a few seconds to spell things out or many, many people can take the time to open a tab and search for what the acronyms or symbols mean. There is a cumulative savings if one person takes the few seconds to spell things out.

Also there are some people like me that just skip most posts that contain acronyms and ticker symbols that they are not familiar with. That kind of defeats the information sharing and educational potential of the forum.

amateurnovice
Posts: 165
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Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

Post by amateurnovice » Sat May 05, 2018 4:22 pm

bikechuck wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 3:33 pm
amateurnovice wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 7:57 pm
Lots of Bogleheads do that thing where they pretend not to be able to look up a ticker symbol by opening a new tab and taking all of 3 seconds, so I think you might've known and just pretended not to know.
I think that it is best to avoid using acronyms and ticker symbols when posting. One person can take a few seconds to spell things out or many, many people can take the time to open a tab and search for what the acronyms or symbols mean. There is a cumulative savings if one person takes the few seconds to spell things out.

Also there are some people like me that just skip most posts that contain acronyms and ticker symbols that they are not familiar with. That kind of defeats the information sharing and educational potential of the forum.
Many ticker symbols are so ubiquitous they're known by virtually everyone (KO, F, T, WMT, FB, AAPL), and in this forum, Vanguard fund tickers are practically known by everyone. It's almost like some people just chime in so they can point out that someone isn't following the normal procedures for threads and could just offer some advice on the information they have an move on - that would be sufficient. Boglehead investing is pedantic, but talking about it doesn't have to be.

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